When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT. The field sets up like this:
Past Performances available here
- Captain Cherokee (A. Gryder/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
- Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 6/1
- Flat Out (J. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 10/1
- Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Van Hemel) 20/1
- Ziegfeld (J. Court/ D. Romans) 12/1
- Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. Wayne Lukas) 6/1
- Summer Bird (C. Rosier/ T. Ice) 30/1
- Old Fashioned (T. Thompson/ L. Jones) 9/5*
- Win Willy (M. Berry/ M. Robertson) 7/2
- Danger to Society (C. Velasquez/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset. The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower. Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned. After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend. He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson. The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done. While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn.
Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat. The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower. I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile. Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.
Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on. I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year. As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased. I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper. I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose.
An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow. We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roses challenge. He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking. He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one.
I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy. Looking over the past performances here the night before the race, I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick. I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place. Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.
Selections:
- $20 Win #8 Old Fashioned
- $.10 Superfecta: 8/2,9,10/2,4,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10 ($6.00)
Best of luck to all!
Kevin,
My pace figs say that WIN WILLY is superior to OLD FASHIONED and I’m giving PAPA CLEM the chance to get first run on WILLY after putting away the favorite. CLEM and WILLY in a good old boy exacta from Arkansas.
Val gave SUMMER BIRD out as a longshot and I’ve also given him more than a once-over. His late running maiden win could allow him to spice up the exotics. Birdstone over a Summer Squall mare…not bad.
I’m not really happy with the Old Fashioned pick. I wanted to go with Win Willy very badly but thought he might need a bit more help. I do think he’s the better horse (I’m in awe of the move he made in the Rebel).
Papa Clem was harder for me to get a read on. I would’ve thought getting an easier lead in the slop for the LA Derby would’ve given him a better shot. I still remember how fantastic this guy looked visually in the post parade of the ‘Lewis out west.
Summer Bird, huh? Hmmm…yeah, I can see what you mean. 1:44/3 is a nice time…only thing is the track at OP looks like it was playing faster that day than it was for the Rebel, but still – that does put him right there. At 30/1 you’ve convinced me to add him to the equation. I’ll use him underneath. Birdstone has a history of crushing my tickets/breaking my heart.
I think the Louisiana results might be key today as I have picked Terrain for 2nd in the Blue Grass. That being said, I like Papa Clem for 3rd in today’s Arkansas Derby. I don’t think there will be any repeat of the Old Fashioned v Win Willy, and think Win Willy will be out of money entirely with Old Fashioned’s early speed enough to get him 2nd. I am going to go out on a huge limb here with a long shot to win, looking for Poltergeist to run by Papa Clem and Old Fashioned in the stretch.
4–Poltergeist / 8–Old Fashioned / 2–Papa Clem
Mark Ripple
Author, Handicapping the Wall Street Way
Love the aggressive stand on Poltergeist.! I must admit Amateurcapper has me looking long and hard now at Summer Bird as well as possibility to hit the board.
I gotta give some props here to Amateurcapper’s write up of the Blue Grass – to anyone reading it’s well worth checking out:
http://amateurcapper.blogspot.com/2009/04/handicapping-blue-grass-with-thorograph.html
FLYING PRIVATE has never been a great ‘works’ horse but may be coming around for DWAYNE. FP HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTANT IF NOT SPECTACULAR IN PREVIOUS RACES. HE IS WORTH A BET AND IS BY FUSAICHI PEGASUS.