THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

So it’s Derby week and we’ve had some shakeups.  It’s nothing new really, but we are in dire need of some good news on the thoroughbred racing front.   Bad things tend to come in bunches, so with any luck ours is out of the way and we’re setup for a thrilling Derby to remember this Saturday.  That’s the “glass half full” side of things.  The other possibility is that, well…let’s not even get into that.  It’d be bad.  Very bad.   With that in mind, I’m pulling for the “glass half full” vision of things. 

We’ve had a trilogy of recent disappointing news involving potential favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, including injuries to The Pamplemousse  (who was the likely pace setter),  Old Fashioned, and Quality Road (another speedy type).   This latest blow was particularly hard to take, as Quality Road was likely going to be my selection if everything with his feet checked out.  The cumulative effect of these departures is a completely altered pace scenario.  What once looked like a potential battle up front as horses tried to challenge The Pamplemousse and opened things up to the possibility of a flyer down the center of the track late, to a scenario where one horse might get out and be able to set easy fractions in merry-go-round style (Regal Ransom, anyone?).  

And it’s not like we haven’t had other “issues” to deal with.  The monstrous findings of unthinkable neglect with Paragallo’s horses and the infamous infractions of Jeff Mullins with Gato Go Win earlier this spring come to mind.   In fact, with the exception of a particularly interesting (if not ever-thinning) crop of three-year-olds to behold, there hasn’t been that much to get excited over.   Curlin’s retired (you knew I had to work that in somehow),  and we’ve yet to see the seasonal debut of Zenyatta. 

But this is the Derby, and with such a huge field, nothing is ever certain (with all due respect to Big Brown and every other worthy favorite that has prevailed over the years). Not only that, but we’re due for some good luck.  We’re all handicappers and at least mild gamblers.  We know to trust probabilities and odds.   Things have got to get better, don’t they?

Enter lady hope.

News now comes that Zenyatta, little miss “slow cheetah” herself,  is making her seasonal debut this Friday on Oaks Day!  She’s running in the Louisville Distaff on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks undercard!!!   Are you kidding me?   That means we get to see the two best fillies in the nation on Friday.   Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra!   Whoa there…are the ladies upstaging the biggest race in the country?   Not exactly….we could only say that if they were facing each other, but at this point Zenyatta would have such an advantage that it wouldn’t likely be that interesting.   So this is the best we could possibly hope for.   The front runner for Horse of the Year (barring a spectacular performance through the spring and summer from one of the 3-year-old colts), and the front runner for 3-year-old filly of the year.   Hell, I think Rachel Alexandra would be a logical contender in the Derby if she were to run there instead of the Oaks.

Want more good karma?   Today I received a kind letter of thanks from President Michael Blowen over at Old Friends for a meager donation.  It was quite a surprise considering the amount I donated was not a heck of a lot of money.  It just goes to show what great folks they are.   They appreciate every bit of help they get (hint, hint – if you manage to take home a score on Derby or Oaks day, make yourself a note to give a small portion back to a horse rescue group like Old Friends…it’s the right thing to do).   Old Friends are expecting to add Lava Man, Polish Navy, and Glitterman to the list of distinguished residents in the near future.   To be totally transparent, the donation is a mandatory requirement of being part of the TBA.  It’s one of the little things we try to do to be responsible members of the thoroughbred racing community. 

Anyhow…the point I’m making is that it was one of those “yep, this is why I’m proud to be a racing fan” moments.   Just like being able to see both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra strut their stuff on “Oaks Day” will be an experience I’m eager with anticipation to see.   This is what we live for!   And then, of course, to top things off we get the Derby.   The best 2 minutes in all of sports.   Might this be a good omen for things to come on Saturday?   One can surely hope, can’t they? 

On the Derby front, things are shaping up rather interestingly.   Thanks to a plug from Ray Paulick, we were able to get some very interesting results from a good sampling of fans in the “10 Burning Questions” post.   Make sure you head on over and participate if you haven’t done so yet.   Somewhat surprisingly, Friesan Fire is pulling away in the lead as the “people’s horse” for the moment.   Even more fascinating, as of this writing, almost as many voters have picked a longshot as have picked likely favorite I Want Revenge.   I can’t wait to see how this plays out on the tote board, but my hunch is that the late departure of a strong contender like Quality Road has really shaken up the opinions.   There’s bound to be some juicy opportunities out there.   There’s still the bulk of the week to go, and no doubt folks will start to settle down and the chips will fall one way or another, but for now it’s endlessly fascinating to see what folks are thinking.

My guess at an interpretation is that folks are a tad wary of I Want Revenge leaving himself too much to do in the Derby.   Having to get through the way he did in the Wood, while impressive, is a bit worrisome in the larger field he’ll face this weekend.  With Quality Road out of the picture though, I really thought he was the only runner who could get to him and reel him in late in the stretch.  

Dunkirk is getting a lukewarm reception overall.   It’s almost split right down the middle in terms of folks who think he’s a “legit win contender” and those who don’t.  Notice that phrasing.  It doesn’t mean he’s your top pick, it just means you think he’s got a shot.   Having close to 50% indicate “no” is way more than I anticipated.  For the record, I think he is a legit win threat.   He’s one you’ve got to consider and I don’t think it’s safe to toss any of the main competitors at this point. 

To give you a glimpse into my thinking (or, as my brother might say “ever see that movie “” A Beautiful Mind”"???) Here’s my biggest concern.  If I were to pick I Want Revenge, I’d potentially be going against two of my favorite plays.  One I’d be defintiely playing against and the other I’d “probably” be playing against.  The definite angle I’d be going against is playing Larry Jones when teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez on a 3-year-old.   That’s one of my strongest plays traditionally.  Especially whenever they get anything resembling “decent odds”  (which isn’t often, but could be the case here).   The second angle I could be playing against is “lone speed.”   I’ve got to look at it a bit more.   If Regal Ransom could get the lead,  might he not have a chance at the upset?   You’d think we would be cautious of such a possibility having had watched  Da’ Tara merry-go-round Big Brown and company in the 2008 Belmont, but it’s easy to forget with so much having happened since then. 

With that in mind.  Sound off.   Let’s here how you are seeing things in light of the recent shake-up.  We’ve got plenty of data….what we don’t have is a good assessment of “why?”   Ah yes, to you, oh wise readers, I turn for the “million dollar questions.”