By now virtually everyone has seen the post position draw for the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, or at least dug a bit to find out where their favorite horses are lined up. Here we’ll take a quick run through the field and see if we can’t glean any information about the way the chips have fallen thus far. Like many of you, I’m still going back and forth in my mind about how exactly this race will setup and who my final pick will be.
We’ll start with the inside runners:
- #1 West Side Bernie (30/1)
- #2 Musket Man (20/1)
- #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (30/1)
- #4 Advice (30/1)
- #5 Hold Me Back (15/1)
A grouping of veritable longshots highlight the inside quarter of the field for the Derby. The two horses I think had the worst of luck in the post draw were West Side Bernie and Musket Man. Each will probably have to go a bit quicker than they’d like to now by virtue of being stuck along the rail in a 20 horse field. Remember that the 2 hole was doom for as talented a colt as Curlin back in ’07. It’ll take a bit of racing luck for these guys to be able to maneuver through the field from these spots. Winstar Farms has the trio rounding out the inside runners with longshots Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, and Hold Me Back. If nothing else, they ought to get ground saving trips, which is probably what these guys needed anyway.
Moving onto the inside-middle quarter of the field:
- #6 Friesan Fire (5/1)
- #7 Papa Clem (20/1)
- #8 Mine That Bird (50/1)
- #9 Join in the Dance (50/1)
- #10 Regal Ransom (30/1)
Friesan Fire headlines this gorup of colts and will no doubt look to break well, and then rate off of the early speed, which could come from either side of him. It’s worth remembering that Eight Belles, the last and perhaps most famous Derby runner for trainer Larry Jones, broke from the 5 hole in the 2008 Derby and ran well to finish 2nd to Big Brown before collapsing after crossing the finish line. Given that Friesan Fire blewout a strong workout earlier in the week, he’d appear to be primed and ready for a big performance, and I see no need to be concerned by the post draw. Papa Clem also drew interestingly in the 7 hole. My 5-year-old always picks the #7 horse (his favorite color being orange), so no doubt he’ll wind up on some of our tickets. Longshot Join in the Dance won the lottery for the post draw and selected first, opting for the 9 hole, which just happens to be the jersey number worn by one of his owners, Rashard Lewis of the NBA’s Orlando Magic. Regal Ransom deserves some mention from me here as well as indications are that he looks very good coming off of his UAE Derby victory in Dubai back in March. Earlier I had anticipated him to be part of the expected pace, and perhaps even on the lead early on, but from this post position I’d expect him to rate off the leaders and do more of a stalking style and look to make a middle move somewhere around the time the field enters the final turn. He’s a longshot at 30/1 that I think deserves to be closely scrutinized in the post parade as he may have more of a chance than his odds would suggest.
Now on to the outer-middle quarter of the field:
- #11 Chocolate Candy (20/1)
- #12 General Quarters (20/1)
- #13 I Want Revenge (3/1*)
- #14 Atomic Rain (50/1)
- #15 Dunkirk (4/1)
This is probably the group of runners that will warrant the most attention from handicappers by virtue of containing the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, and two of the more popular horses amongst fans in Dunkirk and General Quarters. Toss in Chocolate Candy, who gets whispered about in certain circles, and you can see how interesting this group becomes. First things first, I think I Want Revenge got a great draw from the 13 hole. He’ll probably have some speed on both sides of him (by virtue of Pioneer of the Nile being drawn in the outside quarter of the field), but should be able to get a decent trip from here. That might be all he needs. Then there’s Dunkirk. What you can’t tell from just looking at this group is that immediately to his outside is Pioneer of the Nile. It’ll be interesting to see how these two react to each other out of the gate as Pioneer of the Nile has a reputation for being a bit wild early on, and obviously Dunkirk is extremely lightly raced. If all goes well at the break, this isn’t a bad spot for him at all. If something does go wrong though, well, then the whole picture changes. But that could really be said about any runner in this field. I’m only mentioning it because I’m a bit worried the two of them might play bumper cars for the first few steps. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy look well placed here as well. I would think this is probably just about where their connections would want them placed for this race. As for Atomic Rain, well…I’m not really feeling it at the moment. I guess it’s a good draw for him. Honestly I’m not really focusing that much on him.
And finally, the outside quarter of the field:
- #16 Pioneer of the Nile (4/1)
- #17 Summer Bird (50/1)
- #18 Nowhere to Hide (50/1)
- #19 Desert Party (15/1)
- #20 Flying Private (50/1)
It’s an interesting mix of possible legitimate win contenders and absolute longshot bombs on the outside. We’ve already mentioned Pioneer of the Nile when discussing Dunkirk in the previous grouping, so I’ll spare you the rehash. He would appear to be the speed of the outside horses and just might find himself on the lead unless one of the inside runners decides to (or is forced to) gun it in the early going. He’ll probably go quick enough to save as much ground as he can going into the 1st turn. Summer Bird looked absolutely fantastic in the post parade last out and I’m anxious to see how he stacks up on Derby day in the paddock. You get the feeling he’s in a bit over his head, but he could be worth a late show bet if he passes the eye test. I’m not really seeing it from Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private. Honestly these 50/1 shots make me wish we still had Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, and Square Eddie here instead. What a race that would be! One horse who does intrigue me very much is Desert Party, and at 15/1 he won’t have to make much of an impression to warrant serious consideration. I wouldn’t count him out of this fight. Not at 15/1.
So there you have it. By no means does this constitute my final analysis….just some initial thoughts having looked over the post position draw. We’ll be back tomorrow night with selections and analysis of the much anticipated Oaks Day card coming up on Friday, and then of course we’ll be jumping in full force for the run for the roses on Saturday.
My question to all is how you see the post draw shaping up? Any ideas on the pace scenario? Like I mentioned before, I’m now off the idea that Regal Ransom will be a pacesetter. Does that mean it could be Papa Clem setting the early pace, or one of the longer shots on the board? Might Pioneer of the Nile have to show some speed from the outside as I suspect, or have I lost my mind with that thought? As always, all opinions both welcomed and requested! 
Hey Kev, I gotta think Join in the Dance is going to be setting the early pace.
I can’t seperate my top 3 picks which are (1) Desert Party,(huge overlay) (2) Dunkirk (no telling how good this horse is) and Friesan Fire the best bred horse in the race and trained by a guy who’s come in 2nd in the last two Derbys,, working gangbusters and the 7 week layoff was by choice–if the track comes up sloppy he’ll be that much more dangerous) I’ve got I Want Revenge a close 4th. ——I don’t see any other horse finishing 1st or 2nd outside of these 4, in fact, any other horse besides the above mentioned will need a lot of luck to hit the board at all. In my view POTN at 4-1 is a huge underlay—-good consistent horse but a cut below the top four.,no way he should be listed at 4-1.
Hey Kevin! The excitement is building in the air!
Join in the Dance should go to front. Regal will be not far off. Join will fade no matter what. Not good enough here. Regal will then probably take hold. The big three will be racing behind these two. That is when Dunkirk, Revenge, and Pioneer will have to kick it up.
Pioneer might pull towards the front early on. Join just may not be fast enough to last long here. If it winds up being a slow pace, Pioneer and other horses near the front will have best chance of winning this.
My selections for exacta and tri!
1st
I Want Revenge 3-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
2nd-3rd
West Side Bernie 30-1
Papa Clem 20-1
General Quarters 20-1
Dunkirk 4-1
My selections for exacta and tri!
1st
I Want Revenge 3-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
2nd-3rd
West Side Bernie 30-1
Papa Clem 20-1
General Quarters 20-1
Dunkirk 4-1
Yeah….totally missed that Dettori wasn’t even on Desert Party anymore…had to edit that part out of the post. It’s tough working all day, raising kids, and keeping up with all the changes.
Thanks for being merciful.
SHelton – toss West Side Bernie if you ask me. I’d like him from a different post to hit the board, but not from the 1 hole.
Mike & Mike – You’re probably both right. Join in the Dance will have the early lead, but for how long? I’m thinking he gets passed by Regal Ransom at some point around 6 furlongs in or so. Just a hunch.
I see it coming down to who can than run down Regal Ransom, which I do expect will happen. Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, maybe Pioneer, and definitely I Want Revenge all coming home well late. Add Desert Party to the mix if he isn’t caught too wide on the turns.
Shouldn’t Papa Clem be involved there somewhere though as well? Feel like leaving him off might be a mistake.
That would mean your win candidates are Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, and perhaps Papa Clem and Desert Party. Stretch it out to Regal Ransom if you think he can hold ‘em all off. 4 definite win candidates, 2 maybes, and 1 longshot.
Another horse I think can threaten to hit the board and seems to be being forgotten at the last second: Chocolate Candy.
oh yeah love that chocolate candy, but who knows?
Here’s to you, Kevin, for all the info and handicapping and detailed reports! Nice and intelligent writing and friendly site. GO KEVIN PICKS!
Can’t wait, it’s just around the corner now!! I’m going to Belmont for the day, should be a blast!!
Well thank you, Sally! It wouldn’t be worth it without folks like you to keep me going!
Brian – that’s awesome! That’s where I met you for the first time. Ah….just made me think of Curlin. Even on an “off” day for him he was easily the best looking horse I’ve ever seen.
Best of luck to you. I KNOW you’ll be watching on Friday as well. I’m so geeked up for Zenyatta and Rachel that I can’t hardly sleep.
….is it “can hardly sleep” or “can’t hardly sleep”…..or is it both? “Can’t” sounds funny on second look, but then there is the saying “can’t hardly wait”, isn’t there? Man I need some sleep.
Soon I’ll be rambling on about “Musket Nile” and “Pioneer of the Fire.”
Kevin,
No way REGAL RANSOM rates…he was rank in his first start this year, for some reason got away last in start #2 then did rush/fade. In the UAE Derby, reunited with Garcia, a wire/wire win like in his debut. My take is he drew ideally in the 10 hole. The only wire/wire Derby winner since ’92 was WAR EMBLEM who broke from the 8 hole. RR comes off a big G.2 prep win like the ’02 winner. Odds of 30-1 morning line similar to the 20-1 the betting public pegged WAR EMBLEM. The best news for RR and Garcia…no QUALITY ROAD.
RE: JOIN IN THE DANCE…No chance! He has speed but feel that RR has superior pace going a route. Only passed a horse once, in his debut, and lost ground from stretch call to wire in every start.
RE: PIONEEROF THE NILE…no chance he’ll be on the lead but do agree that GOMEZ won’t have him very far off the pace UNLESS the inside tactical runners decide to break fast forcing REGAL RANSOM into a :23, :46 3/5, 1:11 kind of pace.
First pace scenario: REGAL RANSOM gets a clear lead, sets :47 3/5, 1:12 fractions while causing a traffic jam behind him, spurts clear and dares them all to catch him in a WAR EMBLEM-type run. BENEFICIARIES (for “win” chances): REGAL RANSOM, HOLD ME BACK, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE, GENERAL QUARTERS, PIONEEROF THE NILE, and DESERT PARTY. Why do the synth runners benefit despite the slow pace? Turns the last 1/2 mile into a sprint for home, just like the plastic preps they participated in.
Second pace scenario: RR is forced into :46, 1:10 3/5 fractions because the riders of MUSKET MAN, FRIESAN FIRE (that bullet was designed to keep him in the front 1/4 of the field a la HARD SPUN, EIGHT BELLES), and PAPA CLEM (tired in his last work, will get a blowout Thursday which should have him on edge early) are afraid to get caught in the box or want to avoid being shuffled too far back a la CURLIN. BENEFICIARIES (for “win” chances): I WANT REVENGE, DUNKIRK, PIONEEROF THE NILE, and SUMMER BIRD (no typo, his daddy upset the Belmont Stakes and he was finishing fastest in the Arky Derby).
Can you tell from this who my top two choices will be???
Interesting….someeone actually sent me a quote from Surour that said they watned Regal Ransom to “rate a bit” – we’ll see.
I’m guessing your top picks are I Want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile. I’ve publicly tossed Pioneer of the Nile over on Facebook so he’s as good as gold as a lock in the Derby.
As i have already stated NO BET on this K-DERBY. AND i think PIONEER-of-the-NILE and REGAL RANSOM + MUSKET MAN must get to the front. The rest of the pack which includes FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE, HOLD ME BACK, DUNKIRK will take their positions/’shots’ depending on the skill/ability of their jocks. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL. HOPEFULLY AN ENTERTAINING AND SAFE RACE TO WATCH/ENJOY.
Kevin,
You guessed ‘em. I’ve been on PotN from early on, no sense getting cold feet now. I WANT REVENGE has proven himself on dirt in two very different circumstances and he’s been as little as a nose off PIONEER.
RE: RR…probably gamesmanship on Suroor’s part. Remember, “rate a bit” can mean get an opening 1/4 close to :24 but still be on the lead. If the inside runners believe that RR won’t send, they’ll fall away from the gate and before they know it RR has a three length lead at a slow clip.
ZYSKANDER
How do you figure PIONEER “must” get the lead???
You’re probably the most prudent to enjoy the race for what it is. In fact, I may do the same considering I’ve got future action on I WANT REVENGE PotN, and FRIESAN FIRE from pool 1.
P-of-N shows he wants to be in or near the front[THAT HE 'DRAGGED' HIS RIDER TO THE FRONT IN THE SANTA-ANITA-DERBY SHOULD TELL YOU THAT] – the same with RR[ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS LIGHTLY RACED] + MM[IN FRONT AGAINST WEAKER]. THIS RACE WILL DEPEND MOIST OF ALL ON JOCKEYS(NOT NECESSARILY THESE HORSE’S REGULAR/FREQUENT RIDERS) PLACING THEM IN POSITIONS TO ‘DO THEIR THING’. My paramour of 21 loving/turbulent/hectic/rewarding years – likes I WANT REVENGE. But then again she ‘told’ me not to bet a horse cause he was cribbing on the racetrack rail before the race in front of the grandstand. DIDN’T BET HIM. THE HORSE WON BY SEVEN IN A BREEZE!!! Go figure.
Love what Lucas said about his strategy to finish “with” Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks:
“I decided to enter three, and what I’m going to do is put one in the gate, one at the sixteenth pole, and I’m going to put my last one on the relay up at the kitchen and hope we can finish with (Rachel), and then I’m not even sure we can get it done.”
“Shouldn’t Papa Clem be involved there somewhere though as well?”
Which well bred horses (stud fee 10k or more) have run close and ITM against the fastest pace on dirt against the best opposition?
I came up with:
Papa Clem, Summer bird against Old Fashioned (111n/c).
Dunkirk against Quality Road (110n/c).
There isn’t much speed inside so Papa Clem should jump out and get close to the rail early.
Dunkirk and Summer Bird are inexperienced but their connections wisely chose outside posts. Those two can drop over after the speed clears out from the middle.
I’ll put the mythical 2-dollar win/place on Papa Clem although I plan to bet a deuce on all 3 to win. An exacta box PC/DK makes sense…good luck…drink coffee not beer…stay away from that second-hand cigarette smoke.
OTOH if it rains then Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge start to look pretty good.
Come to think of it, a PC/IWR or PC/DK/IWR exacta box might be a good way to shoot for a score if DK/IWR go as the top 2 tote choices.
This is Pletcher’s Derby. He’ll make sure Join In The Dance guns for the lead to make for honest fractions, while Edgar Prado will relax Dunkirk in a perfect position off the pace and run down the front runners on the far turn. He’ll get the lead at the top of the stretch and not look back. I’ll be there with my fiance this year sitting 2nd row from the fence at the 1/16th pole. I’ll try to get some good pictures. Hopefully it won’t be raining during the race!