Toyota Blue Grass a solid betting race

10 04 2009

Saturday’s 85th running of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland may not have the star appeal of the other Grade 1 preps along the Derby trail, but it might be one of the more appealing betting races of the season.   Value, particularly underneath in the exotics, will likely abound as the race has drawn 10 relatively evenely matched competitors. 

  1. Patena (R. Albarado Jr./ R. Dutrow Jr.) 10/1
  2. Join in the Dance (J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher) 10/1
  3. Theregoesjojo (C. Borel/ K. McPeek) 7/2
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. L. Castanon/ D. Miller) 20/1
  5. Mafaaz (R. Hills/ J. Gosden) 12/1
  6. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 6/1
  7. Loch Dubh (H. J. Thierot II/ J. Talley) 50/1
  8. General Quarters (E. Coa/ T. McCarthy) 15/1
  9. Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 4/1
  10.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 3/1*
  11.  Massone (G. Gomez/ R. McAnally) 12/1

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to Hold Me Back, largely based on his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on March 21 at Turfway Park.   The son of Giant’s Causeway perked up that day and displayed an apparent affinity for a synthetic surface.  Importantly, he also has shown he can win here at Keeneland, having done so against conditional allowance runners last October (including today’s rival Cliffy’s Future).   He also prevailed in a move I seldom play;  dirt to synthetic.  If you toss his 5th place finish on the dirt against Old Fashioned in the Remsen, he’s 3 for his remaining 3.   It’s interesting to note in his workout lines that he gest credit for a bullet over the dirt at Payson Park going 5 furlongs in 1:02.2, yet only ranks 15th out of 35 for his workout going the same two full seconds faster at Keeneland on Sunday.  He’s got the looks of a worthy favorite, but he doesn’t tower over the field.

Theregoesjojo is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2.  This guy looks like one of the best horses in this race, but once again I’m hesitant to support a dirt runner trying the artificial footing for the first time.    To his credit, he has defeated Quality Road, and ran respectably against both he and Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.  HIs trainer, Ken McPeek, is hitting at an even 20% clip over synthetic surfaces.  I’ve got mixed feelings about this guy in this spot.  I suspect he’ll run a good race, but I don’t think I can support him for the win.

Charitable Man is the horse that offers the most intrigue.  For starters, he’s a Lemon Drop, which I always enjoy playing.   You know he’ll be able to handle the distance, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been giving this guy some solid works in preparation for his 2009 debut.   While he is going from dirt to synthetics like Theregoesjojo, I like his turf pedigree a bit more and would expect him to handle the surfact switch more confidently.  While he has yet to race this year, somebody in his camp has decided this colt hast the goods for the Kentucky Derby, as he’s among those who paid the early nomination fee for the first Saturday in May.   It’s worth noting that he beat two talented horses in the Futurity last year, both Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus.  As Handride pointed out to me on Facebook earlier today, he evidently has his own blog.  You get the feeling this is the class of the field right here, and if he’s cranked up and ready to go – watch out!

European invader Mafaaz has already earned a birth in the Kentucky Derby.   In that way, much like Street Sense in 2007, he’s really here as a final tune up while his connections make the final determination about their chances  next month.  He looks to be in great form, and the only loss of his career was to Donativum, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall at Santa Anita.   He’s accomplished on both turf and synthetics, and will likely offer solid value on the board since many players will shy away from him due to unfamiliarity.   My advice?  Don’t ignore this guy.  I don’t think they would have shipped here if they didn’t truly believe they might have something.   Of course, as with most of the horses here, you really need to get a look at them in the post parade before you can make a final assessment.   That goes doubly true for Mafaaz since he doesn’t have a posted workout over the local service to give us any other indication on how he’s shipped. 

Terrain is a runner who looks capable of moving forward by virtue of essentially dropping in class.   He ran into Friesan Fire and Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and prior to that was favored against Big Drama and West Side Bernie in the Delta Jackpot.  That was really his worst effort after rather uncharectersitically flashing early speed.   He’s actually finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile, who is currently 4th in the public voting on our Kentucky Derby poll, in both the Breeder’s Futurity and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  That’s really one of the most powerful angles you can find from a handicapping perspective in this entire race. 

I’m going to play the Lemon Drop like I usually do and go with Charitable Man for the win.   I’ll use Mafaaz, Terrain, and Hold Me Back underneath in place.  Add in General Quarters  and Theregoesjojo for show,  with Patena and Join in the Dance on the bottom of the Superfecta.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #9 Charitable Man
  • $.10 Superfecta:  9/5,6,10/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 ($6.00)

The Toyota Blue Grass will be featured on TVG and again on tape delay on ESPN2 on Saturday.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail

Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want Revenge-  Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky. 

 

  • #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

“Rabbit, Run” the theme for the Santa Anita Derby

3 04 2009

Might the entry of  the speedy rabbit Z-Day in Saturday’s running of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby spell trouble for The Pamplemousse?  It seems that the connections over at Zayat Stables hope so, particularly for their impressive colt Pioneer of the Nile, who will lock horns with “The Grapefruit”  for the first time this weekend.  The field for the 72nd running of the Santa Anita Derby sets up like this:

  1. Chocolate Candy (J. Rosario/ J. Hollendorfer) 6/1
  2. Z Day (A. Gryder/ M. Mitchell) 15/1
  3. Unbridled Roman (T. Baze/ C. Paasch) 30/1
  4. Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/ B. Baffert) 2/1
  5. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/ E. Harty) 8/1
  6. Feisty Suances (V. Espinoza/ D. Vienna) 15/1
  7. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 10/1
  8. Cape Truth (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 30/1
  9. Gallant Son (R. Bejarano/ F. Lucarelli) 15/1
  10. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/ J. Canani) 9/5*

Past performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

In the name of speed and efficiency, I’ll spare you the suspense and simply say that you can count me among those who are believers in “Da Mousse” (as I now refer to him).  At first I think I was more of a Pioneer of the Nile guy, but as I listened more and more to readers like Sally C and watched the much appreciated workout videos of him that Mary Forney puts on her blog, the more I started to believe he could indeed be something special.  As Superfecta puts it, he might be the one to “break the Santa Anita curse.” 

The idea behind entering a rabbit is usually to soften up the other speed ball competition so that they don’t have as much left in the tank when the off-the-pace runners come charging for the finish line.  Wear ‘em out.  Grind ‘em down.  Make it easy to punch through when it’s time to deliver the coup de grace.  Throughout the ages, men have based aggressive military campaigns on the similar notion that “softening up the enemy” would give their forces a better chance for victory.  How have things played out when such strategies were employed?  Well, obviously horse racing is a completely different animal, but it’s worth remembering a short list of major actions where this was the strategy used before an offensive was launched.  

Three specific examples pop into my mind (and there are countless more I could have chosen from). 

  • Lee’s gamble with Pickett’s Charge at Gettysburg was begun with a massive artillery bombardment prior to the famous infantry advance.  Rather than being obliterated by the barrage, the defending Union soldiers on Cemetery Ridge weathered the storm and than decimated the oncoming rebel assault columns. 
  • At Iwo Jima, the U.S. Navy fired just about everything it had at the tiny island stronghold in the Pacific before the Marines came ashore.  When they did they discovered that the enemy had barely even been bruised and was very much ready for a fight. 
  • The Normandy landings of Operation Overlord in June, 1944 were similarly preceded by massive naval and air bombardments that were supposed to drive the Germans from their entrenchments.  They didn’t. 

While the U.S. was ultimately successful at both Normandy and Iwo Jima, it can hardly be said that success was achieved due to the “softening up” bombardments that initiated the actions.  Those battles, Pickett’s Charge included, were won or lost based on how events unfolded during the infantry advances themselves. 

My suspicion is that a similar outcome is likely this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby.  I’m not drinking the rabbit flavored kool-aid.  If Pioneer of the Nile is going to win this thing, he’s going to have to do it on his own accord, and in the end I think that may be asking him to do just a little too much.  To be fair, the son of Empire Maker does have a tendency to make things exciting with thrillingly close finishes, and he could very well be coming on strong in the stretch under the steady hand of jockey Garrett Gomez, but if the Pamplemousse is able to handle the rabbit like I think he will, I’m not sure if it will be enough in the end.

Pace wise, I do expect Z-Day to have the lead, at least through the opening half mile.   I sort of let the cat out of the bag by posting some of this over on Facebook the other night, but I see The Pamplemousse being able to rate behind him if that’s what it takes.  I know some think he may be a one trick pony, but I think it’s important to note that this horse does have some versatility.  This is perhaps best illustrated by his debut effort when he closed from 11th  to 4th in the stretch, finishing just behind I Want Revenge.  I’m just sayin’.  Don’t be surprised if this guy is more versatile than he’s looked so far.  I’m not saying he wants to be in mid pack, but he should be able to tuck in about a half length or so off of Z-Day if that runner wants to go :22 and :44 in the early going.

Looking over the rest of the field, I’ve been aggressively ranking Chocolate Candy fairly high on my recent Derby rankings, and I’m hoping beyond hope that he validates that somehow this weekend.  A win seems highly unlikely, but he is eligible to be moving well late.  If you’re looking over the past performances, note that his late pace figures have been drifting downwards slightly, but those were in wins against Northern California runners.  I’m thinking he’ll run closer to the efforts we saw in the Real Quiet and his maiden breaker.  If he runs like that, he’s a contender.

Take the Points is rumored to be a likely scratch, so I’ll skip right past him.

That leads us next to Mr. Hot Stuff, who has somehow generated about as much buzz as Chocolate Candy despite having nowhere near as much success -  all because of his connections with Colonel John.  Obviously it’s fairly well known that I love to play Tiznow offspring, so while it’s fair to say that this runner hasn’t really shown much to back up his playability (one maiden victory and a distant 3rd in the Sham), he’ll be on my ticket. 

Two longshots that I think have a chance of hitting the Superfecta towards the bottom of the ticket are Gallant Son and Feisty Suances.  I know that the jockey change from Solis to Bejarano on Gallant Son is due to Solis having the mount on The Pamplemousse, but I think this one is worth taking a long look at.  Most players might easily dismiss him as just a dirt runner, due to his less appealing efforts on the synthetics in recent months.  I don’t think we can do that quite so fast though.  He was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race he was clearly outmatched in.  The Cal Derby effort is admittedly not very enticing, but I actually am okay with his 6th place finish in the San Vicente.  He was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths that day, and I’m fond of the top three finishers in that race (Evita Argentina, Leed’stheway, and Gato Go Win).  Look, I’m not saying he’s a win candidate, but if you’re playing the superfecta, here’s a guy that will offer value who has won going a route distance, is accomplished on both dirt and turf, and who has run deceptively well against some fairly tough synthetic competition.  I think he has a good chance of hitting the board. 

Feisty Suances seems to always find a way to finish in the money, and he could in fact offer some pace pressure to Z Day and The Pamplemousse.  I doubt he can hang around long with the latter, but he has been in the Superfecta in each of his 6 efforts. That counts for something in my book. 

I’ll look for the Pamplemousse to win with Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, and Mr. Hot Stuff battling for place.  I’ll add in Gallant Son and Feisty Suances underneath.  I’ll probably cover the field on the bottom just in case the confidently placed O’Neill runner or Z Day earn a slice.

Selections: 

  • $20 Win #10 The Pamplemousse
  • $.10 Superfecta:  10/1,4,5/1,4,5,6,9/All  ($7.20)

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita, The Pamplemousse

Imperial Council wants revenge

3 04 2009

Four weeks ago, I Want Revenge served notice on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail by turning in an impressive 113 Beyer figure on his way to an 8 1/2 length victory over Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  This Saturday, Imperial Council will make his bid for revenge as the two square off in the 85th running of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  The Wood is part of  an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence that begins with the Bayshore (G3), moves on to the Excelsior (G3) and finishes with the Carter Handicap (G1). 

The field sets up like this:

  • #2 I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 4/5*
  • #3 Lord Justice (C.C. Lopez/ T. Pletcher) 15/1
  • #4Cellar Dweller (A. Napravnik/ J. Campo) 30/1
  • #1 Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/K. Breen) 6/1
  • #1A West Side Bernie (S. Elliot/ K. Breen) 6/1
  • #5 Imperial Council (E. Prado/C. McGaughey) 2/1
  • #6 Just a Coincidence (J. Velazquez/ N. Zito) 12/1
  • #7 Lime Rickey (J. Castellano/ F. Alexander) 20/1

Past Performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

Looking back at I Want Revenge in his dominating performance in the Gotham, the son of Stephen Got Even had everything go his way.  He was able to comfortably stalk a soft pace and when he made his move to surge past Mr. Fantasy, the race was over.  Imperical Council came running hard from the back of the pack to close to 2nd, but never was able to threaten I Want Revenge. 

 

If he gets the same trip in the Wood, the outcome will likely be exactly the same.  From a pace setup, you could argue that the Wood figures to be run a bit quicker than the Gotham was.   If Lord Justice runs here (he’s also entered in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on Saturday), than he’s your likely pace setter.  However, Atomic Rain may show some speed as well, as might Nick Zito’s Just a Coincidence.  Might that open things up for Imperial Council coming off the pace? 

Imperial Council likely left himself way too much to do in the Gotham, and closing into I Want Revenge’s dream trip was seemingly an impossibility.  Today he’ll get an extra half furlong of ground, plus a bit wider turns as they move from the inner track to the main track.  Couple that with perhaps a better pace scenario and I think an upset here starts to become a possibility.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again;  despite the attention that Pioneer of the Nile receives on the California circuit, it would not surprise me if Imperial Council turned out to be the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop of three-year-olds – and Saturday just might be his day.  It’s also worth noting that he’s got Edgar Prado back in the saddle, so a return to his previous style of being noticeably closer to the pace should be expected.  Even trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted as saying as much in Saturday’s DRF. 

West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain make an intriguing pair of runners, but ultimately their coupling actually deflates the betting attraction of this race.   With only seven possible numbers to punch in your ticket, don’t expect bank breaking value here.  I’d cover the top 2 runners if you’re wading into the $400,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool and move on. 

I think the world of I Want Revenge and have been a fan of jockey Joe Talamo’s since well before he earned fame on the series “Jockeys” - but I’ll probably play against him this weekend and look for Imperial Council at slightly better odds.  I suspect the public will hammer I Want Revenge thanks to his impressive speed figures, so even that 4/5 value on the morning line might not hold.  Admittedly I’d like a bit better risk/reward value than 2/1 on Imperial Council, but I’d be happy to get 3/1 or so by post time.  I think both of these horses are Kentucky Derby worthy, and with I Want Revenge most likely having his card already punched, we’ll see if Imperial Council can join him at the big party on the First Saturday in May.

It’s not that I don’t think I Want Revenge will win – he probably will, it’s just that there’s no value in taking him, and I can come up with a few scenarios in my mind where he could be vulnerable (could is the operative term there, note that I did not say “would”).   In the end I’ll be betting on the fact that while he may be clearly better than Imperial Council, I doubt that he’s really 8 lengths better.   This one ought to be closer, and Imperial Council should at least have a chance if all goes well. 

Alas, there is no 10 cent Superfecta wagering available on the Wood, so I’ll skip the single race exotic wagering and save my bankroll for later plays.  Besides – we’re going Pick 4 or bust at Aqueduct.  It’s time to welcome in April in triumphant style!

In the other races of the Pick 4 sequence  I like Capt. Candyman Can and Not for Silver in the Bayshore (G3).  I’ll spread a little deeper in the Excelsior (G3) and cover Barrier Reef, Alaazo, and Cool Coal Man.  In the Carter Handicap (G1) I’ll cover four numbers with True Quality, Fabulous Strike, Tale of Ekati, and Kodiak Kowboy.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #5 Imperial Council
  • Race 7  All stakes Pick 4:  4,6/1,2,6/2,5/1,3,4,7  ($48)

 


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Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail

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