The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official.  Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont.  This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown.  Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress). 

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again.  You know that he wanted to showcase his filly  in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory.  Like I’ve  said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra.  In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow;  sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage.  In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made. 

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net.  Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking.   Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today.  The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between.  What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this: 

  • “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”  

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt.  Nobody wants to see that.  It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts.  Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)?  They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated.   I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe.   How’d that one turn out?   How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?  And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar?   I just don’t get it.  Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back?   Because she’s a “she”?  See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being.  The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt.   If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well. 

The next line of comments goes something like this:

  • “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this.  Almost.  Do people even think before they speak?  She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown?  For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner.   Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness?  Did I miss something?  I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything?  If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof.  You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not. 

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness?   Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win?  That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown.  That’s what makes it special.  Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing.   I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears.  Same goes here.  You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful?  Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

 

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin???  That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.  

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.”  Oh really?   Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history.  Forgive me, then.   It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner.  On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness?  Yeah…didn’t think so.   If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen.   Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either.  He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding.   It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime.  I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07.  “Curlin got beat by a girl!”  Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was).  Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ?  Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl.  How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?). 

The last  line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

  • “Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all. 

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness.  How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me.  Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples?  Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats.  Here are the opening  1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness.  Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

  • opening 1/4 – :23.82
  • opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

  • opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
  • opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that?  Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness!   And why was that exactly?   Well, several reasons.  In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead.  Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30.   That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead.  The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing. 

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way.   She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns.  Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be.   Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate.  The result was a speed duel.  Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner.  It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man.   That’s what made her win so impressive.   It shouldn’t have happened.  Most horses would not have pulled it off.  In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83,  1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta. 

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like?  Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness.  I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome.   Eyes can be deceiving though.  Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.  

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of  looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.”   Would he?  Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different.  The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her.  That’s it.  That’s the only certain conclusion one can make.  The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas.   I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date.   Would those races be exciting? Most definitely!  But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat.  Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone. 

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off.  Rest up, baby girl.  There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond.  Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga.  I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself.   Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….  :-)


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Zenyatta wins the Milady; remains unbeaten in 10 starts

23 05 2009

Let the debate begin!  It’s not like we didn’t have a debate already brewing behind the scenes regarding thoroughbred racing’s top ladies, but with her ultra impressive victory in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday, the undefeated Zenyatta said “not so fast” to any would be challengers in her quest for a Horse of the Year title.  The win sets up the potential for an eventual showdown between the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry and Preakness champion Rachel Alexandra in one of the Breeders’ Cup Classic races this fall.   Only time will tell if that will be a Friday or a Saturday showdown. 

Breaking towards the rear of the pack, Zenyatta and stable mate Life Is Sweet spotted the field double digit lengths in the early going, and then set down for their runs with about 3 furlongs to go.   Garrett Gomez, aboard Life Is Sweet, did everything in his power to prevent the eventual overpowering stretch run of Zenyatta, causing her to check momentarily.  Nothing could stop Zenyatta though as in true “Slow Cheetah” style she circled wide, perked her ears, and then inhaled the field.

Zenyatta returned $2.40 for the win, her 8th in graded stakes company.  Life Is Sweet ran on gamely for 2nd, and if not for the presence of Zenyatta would have prevailed.  Allicansayis Wow ran on for 3rd, making my pre-race selections 1,2,3 finishers.  Unfortunately their was no value to be had, as the Trifecta returned a paltry $13.20. 

Today was not about value from a betting standpoint though.  Today was about star power and what it can do for the sport.  If you haven’t noticed, we’re a bit thin in terms of superstars in this sport at the moment.   It’s a bit hard to detect thanks to the publicity that the Triple Crown receives, and the instant celebrity status awarded both Rachel and Mine That Bird for their victories in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.   Beyond them though, who do we have?  Einstein is versatile enough that he’s probably the top older male in the nation (on any surface, it would seem).  Perhaps Well Armed will return in top form from his massive victory in the Dubai World Cup back in March.  We do have some star power in Forever Together in the turf female division, but how many folks outside of diehard horse racing fans have ever really heard of her?  All that we are, for the moment at least, hinges on the success of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, and Mine That Bird. 

What a matchup we might get this fall if their worlds do collide?   Rachel running from the 1st step out in front early on.  Zenyatta biding her time and then setting down for her run in the turn. Personally, I think Zenyatta would have distinct advantage if the desired showdown were to occur on Breeders’ Cup weekend.   While she’s proven in the past that she doesn’t need to be in California to win, clearly it’s where she’s at her most comfortable.  Things might be more evenly matched if the two were to meet on a true dirt surface, say in Saratoga this summer.  I doubt that will happen though, as Zenyatta’s connections may feel there’s no need to ship her across the country to prove anything.   She can stay where she is, win the Classic, and waltz away with Horse of the Year honors. 

For Rachel, the path is more difficult.  First and foremost, she has a potential rematch with Mine That Bird looming in the Belmont, if Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen decide to send her.  Then she must prove she has something in the tank after the Triple Crown races when she eventually squares off against older runners.  Then the decision will have to come as to whether to ship her for the Ladies’ Classic on Friday, or the main attraction on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

Of course, while we’re debating these fillies, let’s not loose sight of Mine That Bird, who has a tendency to jump up and bite those that count him out of the equation.   How silly might we look later in the year if we’ve wasted months arguing about Rachel and Zenyatta, only to get “Birdstoned” again in the Classic?  It could happen, I’m just sayin’.  Let’s not get too carried away with the Rachel vs. Zenyatta debate. 

One thing is certain, it’s an exciting time to be a racing fan.  We’re blessed with two of the most talented female runners in recent memory.   These are our two superstars.   Here’s hoping they each continue to progress, and that one day we might be lucky enough to witness them in direct competition with one another in a race for the ages. 

For now, hats off to Zenyatta, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Michael E. Smith, who rode one of his signature races in timing when to launch his runner nearing the stretch of the Milady.  What a magnificent creature Zenyatta is to behold.  Clearly one of a kind.  She’s one of those horses you feel lucky just being able to watch.  Well done, Slow Cheetah!


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Categories : Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Zenyatta’s return; Undefeated mare favored in the Milady Handicap

22 05 2009

One good lady deserves another. It’s only fitting and proper.  Of course,in the cases of the phenoms that are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, “good” is a rather modest choice of words, but I’ll trust the expression is not lost upon the reader.  After witnessing history with Rachel Alexandra’s triumph in the Preakness last weekend, we return this weekend with the undefeated Zenyatta, or as I like to call her “Slow Cheetah“,  making her 2009 debut in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.  If things hold up, these two ladies might be on a collision course for Breeders’ Cup weekend this October, and when all is said and done they might have a Horse of the Year title on the line between them.  For now though, each runner has more immediate challenges to concern themselves with.

It’s been over half a year since we’ve seen the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry rolling to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last October at Santa Anita.   This weekend she’ll put her undefeated record on the line against fellow stablemate Life Is Sweet, who is exiting 3 consecutive graded stakes victories of her own and clearly in top form.  You can see the story lines running through this race already.  Life Is Sweet comes into the race in peak condition.  Zenyatta comes off the shelf after a sustained layoff.  If they both run to their previous class (and there’s no reason to suspect they’ll do otherwise) It looks very much like the Milady will turn into a two horse affair.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Gambler’s Justice (M. Garcia/ B. Spawr) 20/1
  • #2 Taste’s Sis (D. Sorenson/M. Polanco) 30/1
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (J. Talamo/ P. Biancone) 20/1
  • #4 Dawn After Dawn (J. Rosario/ J. Sadler) 10/1
  • #5 Champagne Eyes (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 8/1
  • #6 Bel Air Sizzle (R. Bejarano/ B. Abrams) 20/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (G. Gomez/ J. Shirreffs) 5/2
  • #8 Hot n’ Dusty (A. Solis/ B. Abrams) 50/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #9 Zenyatta (M.Smith/ J. Shirreffs) 3/5*

Before Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta can make it a two horse race, however, they’ll need to wear down the early speed.  Luckily for them, it appears on paper that ample speed has signed on here to suit their respective closing styles.  #1 Gambler’s Justice along the rail and #2 Taste’s Sis both appear to be speedy types that should be forwardly placed earlier on.   #5 Champagne Eyes is also likely to be a part of the pace, although she may attempt to press from just behind the rail runner.  #4 Dawn After Dawn should be stalking early on in about 3rd or 4th position, anywhere from 2-4 lengths behind the early pace. 

As the field begins to turn into the stretch, the real race should begin, and it may well come down to who gets first jump between Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to give Zenyatta the slight edge here, despite the long layoff.  We’ve simply never seen a situation that she can’t overcome.  She’s thrived at Hollywood Park ever since breaking her maiden there on a Thursday night in November of 2007.   Moreover, she’s a perfect 6 for 6 at the 1 1/16 mile distance, which appears to be her comfort zone.  Admittedly, she’s perfect at everything she’s attempted thus far, so that last bit might not seem to matter much at first glance, but if this race were being run at either a shorter 1 mile distance or a longer 1 1/8 mile distance then perhaps there would be reason to suspect some vulnerability.  Conversely, it’s debatable whether 1 1/16 miles is the preferred distance for Life Is Sweet.  Surely she can clearly score at that distance, but she might be a better runner at 1 1/8 miles.

I’ll play Zenyatta on top, even though she’ll be a huge favorite.  Underneath I’ll use Life Is Sweet, who I think will make it very close but most likely come up just short at the wire.   With the two Barry Abrams runners (#6 Bel Air Sizzle and #8 Hot n’ Dusty) likely to scratch, I’ll focus underneath on the longshot #3 Allicansayis Wow, who managed to prevail last out against optional claimers despite clipping heels in the stretch. I’d expect a much improved effort this time out in only her 2nd start in the U.S.  I’ll also toss in Champagne Eyes, Dawn After Dawn, and the rail runner Gambler’s Justice (just in case she holds on for a slice). 

I’m keeping the ticket on the cheap side here, but if you feel confident with a particular combination it might be a good idea to hammer it through the betting windows 10 to 20 times, as the straight exacta is not likely to return much of a payout.

Selections:

  • #9  Zenyatta (3/5*)
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (5/2)
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (20/1)

$1 Trifecta  9/7/1,3,4,5 =$4

Best of luck to everyone, and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Shine Again highlights closing day at Pimlico

22 05 2009

One can always tell that the true “dog days of summer” are right around the corner with the arrival of Memorial Day weekend.  As racing fans, our attention will soon be focused on locations like Saratoga and Del Mar.  The Triple Crown races will soon be behind us, and once again it will be time to test the top 3-year-olds against the top older horses in the nation and begin to set the table for the Breeders’ Cup this fall.

Before we reach that destination, there’s still some exciting action left to cover in the wake of the historic finish in the 2009 Preakness.

It’s closing weekend at Pimlico, which means it’s my last chance of the season to play along at the track where it all began for me.  Much has been made of the decreased infield attendance at Old Hilltop during Preakness day, but I think folks who focus on that are missing the point.  Both television viewership and betting handle were up significantly.  If you had to pick between infield attendance, betting handle, and tv viewership, which of those selections would offer the weakest prospect in terms of building a long term relationship with fans?  In my estimation, having been an infield attendee for many years during my college days,  it was clearly the infield that had to go.  

What had once been an exciting, if not over-the-top, annual tradition of adolescent drunkenness had turned into an extremely violent situation that seemed like a powder keg waiting to explode.  In other words, I did not miss dodging flying beer cans for one moment this year.  In fact, the infield is now a place where I can consider taking my small children one day, so that they too might develop a love and appreciation for the majestic horses that so captivate us.  Imagine that!  Rather than catering to drunken college kids who could care less if they ever even see a horse all day, the track might move forward and begin developing a bond of shared experiences with the next generation…all while Mommy and Daddy watch and wager without worry of having to defend their family with their life from a mob of inebriated hooligans.  What a noble idea, huh? 

I only mention this because living in the Baltimore area, one of the hot topics you still hear people arguing over is the whole “infield debate.”  Personally, I think the decision was in the best interest of everyone involved;  the horsemen, the horses, the racing fans who actually come to see the races, and even the would-be hooligans, who at so young an age realize not what a danger they are to themselves and others. 

Again, ratings and handle were UP!  That’s what you want to see!  That’s how you gain national attention and become relevant!  Not by allowing college kids to pillage one another in senseless unsupervised drunken debauchery.  Was the infield more barren than years before?  No question…but my guess is that once folks figure out it’s actually a family friendly place now, you’ll see more attendees file in over the year who are their to actually play the races, rather than just occupy a cube of grass and proclaim complete beligerence for any who dare pass bye.

Plus, how many times have we heard that our sport needs an image change?  That all the things you see associated with horse racing, from fatal breakdowns, to degenerate gambling are “bad for the sport.”  Is there really anyone out there who thinks the scenes from the Preakness infield in years past is what this sport needed at this point in time? 

Hats off to the folks of the Maryland Jockey Club for standing up and doing what was right, even if it wasn’t universally popular or appreciated.  The “right” decisions are often the hardest to make, and in this case doubly so considering the economic hardship that has hit Maryland racing in the past year.

Don’t get me wrong…the infield had it’s bright spots, and I’m filled with memories (though many are quite hazy and disjointed for some reason) of infields past that continue to bring a smile to my face, but the turn to ever increasing recklessness in recent years was one that had to be controlled.   The fact that handle for the day was able to increase despite the economic situation our nation currently finds itself in also speaks VOLUMES about what one super filly can do for our sport.  See that, folks?  “Star power” does work.   Now if I could just get someone to buy into the whole “Take Back Saturday” idea, we might have a fighting chance to turn things around for the sport still! 

Ah…see, get me talking about Preakness and I start to rant.  Let’s move on to the intended purpose of this post – some quick selections for the final day of racing at Pimlico.

We’ll focus on the feature race of the day, the Shine Again, for fillies and mares 3-years old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main dirt track.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Swallow Falls (J. Pimentel/ M. Eppler) 7/2
  • #1A Katrinarita (no rider/ M. Eppler) 7/2
  • #3 Four Karats (G. Whitacre/ C. Pickett) 15/1
  • #3 Five Diamonds (no rider/ J. Hartsell) 3/1
  • #4 Amie’s Legend (Luis Garcia/G. Motion) 8/5*
  • #5 Silent Diva (no rider/ L. Murray) 5/1
  • #6 Eye (no rider/ K. Leatherbury) 6/1

It may be a small field, but it looks to be an intriguing one.  Two of the entries, #3 Four Karats, and #6 Eye, raced last Friday in the Kattegat’s Pride on Black Eyed Susan Day.  Four Karats led throughout the early action, but ultimately yielded to Eye in the stretch, who pulled away to win by 2 1/4 lengths.  It’s interesting to see these runners turned out again on such short rest, but do note that Eye began her 2009 campaign on just 15 days rest on 1/10/09 and managed to defeat $9k claimers at Laurel Park. 

The horse who I think you have to focus on here is #4 Amie’s Legend.  She’s got some personal connections that I simply can’t ignore, having a name that invokes reference to my wife (Amy).  Further, the 4-year-old daughter of Not For Love is trained by Graham Motion, my favorite horsemen on the Maryland circuit.  She exits a victory against $17k optional claimers and is taking a fairly steep class hike on paper, but she clearly fits on paper with the other runners in this field and this would appear to be a smart spot to place her in search of her first graded stakes victory.  She should be able to come from just off the pace and a repeat performance of her last effort likely finds her in the winner’s circle once again. 

Underneath I like #6 Eye coming from off the pace as well.  Usually I’d prefer to take a speed horse at Pimlico, as the track tends to favor such runners, but it looks like their could be enough action up front between #2 Four Karats, #3 Five Diamonds, and #5 Silent Diva to give Eye a similar setup to what he received in the Kattegatt’s Pride last week.   One thing is certain, we know she’s in sharp form coming off that last out win.  

Of the rest of the field, Id prefer #3 Five Diamonds, but the field is small enough that you might as well hit the all button for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #4 Amie’s Legend (8/5*)
  • #6 Eye (6/1)
  • #3 Five Diamonds (3/1)

$1 Trifecta: 4/6/All =$4

In the final race of the day, I’m somewhat excited about a longshot first time starter for trainer Robert Gamber named Big Boper.   Apart from the King Leatherbury runner Stokes, who will likely be hammered at the windows by virtue of his 2nd place finish last out, Their really isn’t anything in this field that gives me tremendous pause.  I think I’ll take the first time runner at 20/1, and who knows, the odds might actually get better on this guy by post time.  Note that Gamber is actually hitting at a better clip this meet (17%) than Leatherbury (12%).  Granted, it’s been a short meet, but that’s still worth taking into consideration.  I’m not sure if he’ll pull out the win, but I’ll likely cover him across the board and play a small exacta with Big Boper and Stokes and hope for some magic. 

Selections (race 10)

  • $10 WPS #4 Big Boper
  • $1 Ex Box: 4,11 ($2)

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.  So long to Pimlico for the year.  The meet may have been short, but it certainly was sweet.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico

Rachel Alexandra Runs Away with the 2009 Preakness

16 05 2009
 

She did it!!!!!!!  She stared straight into the eyes of over 80 years of history (not to mention 12 colts) and REFUSED to be denied!  Right from the start she had to prove she was everything she had been billed as, being forced to move quickly from the outside post and winding up in a speed duel with inside runner Big Drama, setting opening splits of  :23.13 and :46.71.  NOTHING could stop her though as she powered to a  4 length lead in the stretch and held off late charges from Musket Man and Mine That Bird to prevail in 1:55.08.  A lesser horse would have collapsed under the pressure.  Hell, many a fine horse would have collapsed under the pressure, but not Rachel.  It was a win for the ages, and one that has the potential to put horse racing back on the map in terms of national recognition, even if only for a fleeting moment. 

Full Results Chart

The past 3 years I’ve been blessed to witness firsthand the finest thoroughbred racing action a fan could  hope for in the yearly running of the Preakness.  In 2007 I came to cheer my guts out for my hero, Curlin, and was thrilled beyond belief when he caught Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense at the wire.  In 2008 we came to see Big Brown ”big boy”a field of pretenders and keep the elusive Triple Crown dream alive.  Today was as big a day as I’ve ever been a part of, as the amazing filly Rachel Alexandra gave us one for the ages.  No matter where we go from here, we can always say “I remember watching when Rachel Alexandra made history!”  I’m on record as saying that in my opinion, the Preakness is the true test of a 3-year-old champion, as the field size and distance make it a more evenly matched race compared to the chaos of the Kentucky Derby and the exhausting (and often somewhat unpredictable) challenge of the Belmont.  

Just like with Curlin in 2007, the minute the field turned for home I began jumping up and down, screaming at the top of my lungs.  “Stay up there Rachel!!!! Dig in, girl, dig in!!!!  Show ‘em what you’re made of, baby girl!!!!  Yes!!!! YESSSS!!!!!  YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!”   “IT’S A FILLY IN THE PREAKNESS!!!!!!!”  

This was immediately followed by the same overwhelming and unavoidable tears of joy and pride that permeated my experience with her soon-to-be boyfriend’s Preakness victory.  Yes, I wept a little bit, and I’m not ashamed to admit it.  Watching magnificent horses that I’ve fallen in love with prevail in their defining moments has that effect on me.  I suppose it’s a bit like a proud parent, watching their child achieve scholastic honor, or athletic glory on the football field.

I know one word can’t summarize what we witnessed, but all I’m left thinking is “WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!” (or perhaps more in accordance with the “parlance of our times”, I should revise that to a resounding “DAAAAAAAYUMMMM!!!!!” )  :)

Whoever said a filly couldn’t beat the boys, huh?  Of course, Rachel isn’t your ordinary filly, but to overcome that outside post,  look Big Drama in the eye (who was coming off 5 consecutive victories, mind you, and was the most talked about “buzz horse” all week at Pimlico) and deny him, and then power to an insurmountable lead in the stretch while holding off the Kentucky Derby winner?  It’s absolutely breathtaking.  If it can be said that Big Brown “big boy’d” the field of the ’08 Preakness, than Rachel Alexandra “big girl’d” the field of Preakness 134. 

THIS is the reason we are horse racing fans.  THIS is the reason our sport is the best in the world.  THIS is the reason we lay awake at night dreaming about what is, what might be, and what could have been.

What an unbelievable filly.   Where she goes from here is anyone’s guess.  Might she head to the Belmont?  Personally I’d actually prefer they give her a rest.   I think she’s earned it now with her dominating wins in the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness.  No need to push things.  That being said, if Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen (who I’m told was wearing the exact same suit that he did for Curlin’s 2007 Preakness victory)  decide to send her, you’ll hear no argument from me.  They made all the right moves with Curlin, and they’ve clearly done so with Rachel Alexandra thus far.  And to think, none of this would have transpired had Jackson not stepped up to the plate and purchased her just two weeks ago. 

I guess it’s no secret now that she has proven herself exactly who we thought she is, I’m hoping to see her come home safe and sound once her racing career is over so that she can breed a new line  of magnificent offspring with Curlin.   Can you believe it?  We’re going to have foals several years from now that have Preakness winners for both a mother and a father!  My knowledge of pre-World War 2 horse racing is extremely limited, but I’m guessing that’s never happened before. 

This, my friends, is a total game changer for the entire sport! 

I also have to tip my hat to the “little colt who could”, 2nd place finisher Mine That Bird.   Talk about a horse who has EARNED respect these last two weeks.  His effort in the Preakness proves that there is no such thing as a Kentucky Derby “fluke”, no matter how much we might want to suggest there is.  Clearly he is a magnificent race horse in his own right, and I’ll tell you what, the way he came charging late  he should be feared and respected in the Belmont.

I also thought Musket Man proved he’s the same gutsy competitor we thought he was.  Remember back to our Alibi Breakfast coverage on Thursday where owner Vic Carlson indicated he was betting Musket Man to show?  Looks like that turned out just like he said it would. 

I’m no longer so sure exactly what we have with Pioneer of the Nile,  Papa Clem, and Friesan Fire, as none of them wound up finishing in the money.

All in all this was a magnificent weekend for the sport, and for Maryland racing, which always holds a special place in my heart.  Just when both needed a savior (horse racing in general from a slew of disappointments/tragedies in recent years on the national stage, and Maryland racing in light of the recent bankruptcy filings of  Magna Entertainment, which owns both Pimlico and Laurel Park), a wonder horse has appeared like a knight in shining armor. 

I wish I could find the entire clip on youtube to share with you all, but in reference to that last sentence, I’m humored by a random quote that came to mind as Amy and I drove to the Preakness early this morning.   For some reason the World War 2 classic “A Bridge Too Far” popped into my mind, and I began quoting some random lines.  I made reference to the scene in the film where General Horrocks suggests that the plan for Operation Market Garden reminds him of an American old west film.  “The paratroops, lacking supplies, are the besieged homesteaders.  The Germans, well, naturally they are the bad guys.  And XXX Corps….we are the CAVALRY!”  This was immediately followed by a very bad Michael Caine impersonation, where I suggested that XXX Corps should arrive “right on shed-yule” (that’s “schedule” for us Yanks, but the way Caine speaks the line in full English accent comes off sounding like “shed-yule”….it’s quite addictive to impersonate as it just rolls off the tongue, but I digress). 

“Right on shed-yule” indeed, and just when we needed it the most.  Thank you Rachel, and the little horse who could (Mine That Bird).  The two of you have both been the cavalry we so desperately needed, and your chivalric charges through the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stretches are memories that we’ll keep with us for eternity. 

Of course, I can’t talk about amazing women like Rachel without tipping my hat to two other special gals who helped make the weekend what it was.  Most importantly I’m talking about  my beloved wife, Amy, who puts up with my rambling rants about horse racing and accompanies me as my right hand wherever the game takes me.  True to form, in the midst of our dreadful opening to the day handicapping wise, she pulled an exacta play out of nowhere by boxing numbers that equated to our children’s birthdays. 

At one point in between the Pick 4 sequences, I was so bummed out about our picks that I considered not even betting anymore for the day.  It’s part of our my complex mental makeup that I both love handicapping, but hate losing money on burnt tickets.  Remember that “right on shed-yule” theme from a few paragraphs above?  It played out again during the extended downtime between races 8 and 9 on the card. 

Just as we were agonizing over how to proceed with the late Pick 4, some familiar music began to pipe through the tents of the Turfside Terrace.  ZZ Top had taken the stage to perform, and were jamming out  to “give me all your loving, all your hugs and kisses too.”  It was at that point that we knew the rest of the day would be ours.  You see, back in 2002 when we were married, our ceremony was outdoors.  Just as we began exchanging vows, a vehicle pulled up within earshot blaring that very song.  Amy and I had remained oblivious to this turn of events as we went through the exchange (nerves having evidently temporarily disabled our ability to hear anything but each other), but it’s something our guests have never forgotten.  Nor have they ever let us forget.  :)

With that in mind, the moment that familiar sound reached our ears, we looked at each other and agreed “we came here to play, this is OUR day.  No regrets!”  And with that, we launched into a series of winning plays that got us back to near even for the day.  You know the saying….behind every decent man there’s an even better woman.  Well, I’m not sure if I qualify as a ”decent guy”, but I know damn well how special my girl is. 

 

Amy and I at the 2009 Preakness, where Rachel Alexandra would make history as the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win horse racing's 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown

Amy and I at the 2009 Preakness, where Rachel Alexandra would make history as the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win horse racing's 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown

There’s one other special lady I have to give a big shout out to again, and that’s Carrie Everly of the Maryland Jockey Club.  I know I mentioned her before in our Black Eyed Susan write-up, but she’s the type of person you simply can’t say enough about.  If only there was some way to clone her so that each track in the nation could have a VP of Marketing  like her.  After Rachel’s victory, I ran into her near the winner’s circle, and shared a big “bear hug” while I confided to her that watching Rachel win had moved me to tears of joy and pride.  I probably didn’t even need to say that, as Carrie is just one of those people who “gets it”, whatever “it” might be.   One can always count on the warm smile, the friendly demeanor, and the infectous charm she exudes wherever you see her, whether that be outside the paddock between races or multitasking with walki-talki in hand as a crowd begins to arrive.  No matter how busy she is, she always has time for us, the little guys.  After all, who are we but small time horse players and fans?  And yet she treats us like absolute royalty.  I just hope that somehow, or in some way I’ll one day be able to repay that kindness and properly express my gratitude. 

On a day when an amazing filly shined on the track, the Maryland Jockey Club had their own super-gal working behind the scenes to make sure it all came together as beautifully as it did.  

Yours truly and the amazing Carrie Everly, VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club

Yours truly and the amazing Carrie Everly, VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club

And of course, it would only be proper to conclude by saying that everything went off  “right on shed-yule”

Now if only I had a picture of me with my arm around Rachel Alexandra, right?   I guess a guy can only be so lucky in one day.  I’ve got no complaints from where I’m standing.  :)

I’ll be taking the next few days off here.  It’s been quite a run covering the Alibi Breakfast, Black Eyed Susan Day, and Preakness Day.  I hope you all enjoyed.  Up next we’ll start to swing our attention towards the 2009 Belmont.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Day Selections

15 05 2009

It’s hard to believe that the second jewel of the Triple Crown is already upon us.  From a week that began with the Alibi Breakfast festivities, we’re now through the Black Eyed Susan, and all attention turns to the Preakness. After bringing home two chalk heavy Pick 4 plays at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, I’m jumping right back into the fray with an exhaustive look at the major races that comprise the Preakness Day card on Saturday.   A marathon of 13 races presents itself, culminating in the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes.  It’s a day that could be filled with history, as Rachel Alexandra looks to defy the odds and become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse way back in 1924. 

Two years ago in 2007, my life changed when I watched a brilliant colt named Curlin take center stage and announce to the world that a new star was born.  Might a similarly life changing event be waiting for us just hours away?  Only time will tell.

Much like the Black Eyed Susan picks, I’ll skip the opening races on the day and instead focus on the two Pick 4 sequences.  This is in the interest of time since it’s already 9 PM here in Pennsylvania as I begin writing this.  With any luck we’ll do as good as we did Friday on Black Eyed Susan Day, only hopefully this time we’ll catch some better prices along the way. :)

Race 5:  Alw 26000 N1X (12:26 ET)

  • #2 Schleprock (4/1)
  • #7 Habitual (5/2*)
  • #11 Chancellery (9/2)

We kick things off in the early Pick 4 with a full field of 12 runners routing 1 1/16 miles over the Pimlico turf.   There’s not a lot of speed in this race, but turf races tend to come down to “cavalry charges” at the end, where the horse picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down the best in the final few jumps finds it’s way to the winner’s circle.  For that reason, I went with #2 Schleprock as the top choice.  He’s got 2 recent victories routing over the grass and is technically dropping slightly in class going from the $37k  N1X ranks down to the $26k N1X level.   With Edgar Prado in the saddle for trainer Michael Pino, this guy looks the one to beat.  #7 Habitual is actually listed at lower odds (5/2) on the morning line than Schleprock.  You have to look back a couple of races to see why, but this son of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven to be a capable turf runner.  On his best stuff he can certainly get the job done.  #11 Chancellery will have to get things done from the outside, but he’s been improving and has run a couple of decent races in his career over the Pimlico lawn.   Another horse that warrants some attention in here is #4 Been Awhile, who took 7 chances to break his maiden, but then promptly defeated N2L claimers at first asking.  Perhaps the light bulb has switched on?

$1 Early Pick 4: 

2,7,11/ 3,9,10,11/ 8/ 3,6,7  = $36

 

Race 6: The Deputed Testamony (1:07 ET)

  • #11 Sumacha’hot (2/1)
  • #9 Belle’s Broker (6/1)
  • #3 Norjac (5/2)

Things get a bit deeper when we wade into Stakes territory with the 2nd running of The Deputed Testamony (which for some reason I always want to type as “the Disputed Testimony“), a 1 1/16 mile race over the Pimlico main track.  #11 Sumacha’hot would be a much stronger play if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position.  As such, and despite his very usable dirt form in recent history, you’ve got to include other runners on the Pick 4 ticket here.  #9 Belle’s Broker has the look of a horse who may get overlooked on the tote board.  He definitely knows how to find the winner’s circle, and he’s run pretty well at both this distance and on the local track.  He was favored last out before being checked, which may have cost him the race.  A bounce back effort puts him right in contention today.  #3 Norjac must answer questions regarding his ability to stretch out and get the distance of the Deputed Testamony, but if is able to handle the chore, than he’s clearly a player as well.  Two other horses I think warrant consideration in here are #10 Furrariat, who might be ready for a breakout performance, and the speedy inside runner, #1  Out to Please.  Ultimately I didn’t think the inside speed runner “classed up” on paper enough to include in the Pick 4, but I wouldn’t count him out of the single race exotics.  Of course, I could also make a bit of a case for #3 Take Down Two getting Garrett Gomez in the saddle, so this might be a good race to spread fairly deep.  #7 Court Bland will be charging late, and has a decent chance to hit the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

 

Race 7:  The Grade 3 Gallorette (1:55 ET)

  • #8 Dynaforce (4/5*)
  • #2 All Is Vanity (9/2)
  • #3 Shytoe Lafeet (10/1)

We move into graded stakes territory with the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gallorette, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf.  #8 Dynaforce is the main attraction of this event, coming off a disappointing 8th (though only beaten by 4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita to the super talented Forever Together.  This looks like a good spot for her to make his 2009 debut, as she’s the only runner of the field that can boast at having cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure threshold.  That being said, she’ll still need to bring his top stuff to prevail.  As a previous Grade 1 winner, she’s clearly the class of the field.  What handicappers must determine is if they are willing to trust that class off the long layoff and bravely single, or if they think a couple of other runners might have a chance to pull off the upset.  Obviously, based on my Pick 4 play a few races above, I’m going to be brave and trust that class edge, but you won’t hear me argue with those who feel otherwise….and their just might be some juicy value to be had for those who do attempt to beat the chalk.  #2 All is Vanity looks like the filly with the best chance to “class up” against Dynaforce in here.  She used a wide post position to put in a game run against Raw Silk in the South Beach back in April, and could move forward off that effort.  #3 Shytoe Lafeet is my longshot bomb chance for this race.  For one thing, I’m always fond of the Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combo, especially with fillies and mares.  What’s more, this is a runner who has had excuses in each of the past two races.  I’m guessing that with a name like Shytoe Lafeet, all of the foot fetish folks out there in the world will be all over this runner.  If you toss those efforts, she’s got a little something under the hood and looks like a player in here to me.  Another horse I’d strongly consider using in the single race exotics is #5 Quiet Meadow.

 

Race 8:  The Grade 3 Hirsch Jacobs (2:35 ET)

  • #6 Despite the Odds (9/2)
  • #3 Not for Silver (8/1)
  • #7 Nuclear Wayne (4/1)

I actually had a chance to cover the 34th running of The Hirsch Jacobs over at Case The Race earlier this weekend.  I’m still sticking with my picks there.  I think this race has all kinds of speed, and the two horses that leap off the page to me are those from the white hot Michael Trombetta barn.  #6 Despite the Odds looks to be the better of the two, and is an improving son of champion sprinter Speightstown.  #3 Not for Silver is no slouch himself, and really I could see either of these guys passing the pace setters in the lane to score.  Another runner who could offer some value, despite being  only 4/1 on the morning line is #7 Nuclear Wayne, a fast improving son of Mineshaft.  Of the speed types, #1 Taqarub makes the most sense to me, but like I said, I’ll be playing against the speed here.

 

Race 9: The Woodlawn (3:44 ET)

  • #8 Affirmatif (3/5*)
  • #4 Beacon Hill Road (6/1)
  • #5 Colonel Rutledge (10/1)

The Late Pick 4 sequence begins with the 44th running of The Woodlawn.  We’ve got a field of ten three-year-olds going 1 mile over the turf .  #8 Affirmatif is the most intriguing of the field, despite this being only his 3rd career start.  The son of Unbridled’s Song is listed at extremely low odds of 3/5 on the morning line, but appears a worthy favorite on paper.  He’ll likely press the pace early on and then make his move before the field enters the final turn.  If he’s as good as he looks on paper, the race could be over right there.  #4 Beacon Hill Road was a mediocre looking runner until switched to the Jason Servis barn, where he’s promptly run his best career efforts in back to back stakes races.  A similar effort could put him right where he needs to be should Affirmatif fail to fire.  My longshot pick for the race is #5 Colonel Rutledge.  Not only do I love a good martial sounding name in a colt, but this one goes out for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion.  It’s hard to figure out based on his limited past performance profile if he’s a better dirt runner or turf runner.  He owns a win over the grass, but his better speed figures have been over the dirt.  I’m guessing that he’s an improved horse since that first turf effort.  That should show up on Saturday.  Another horse you’ve got to consider using is #1 Heros Image, who might be force to go quickly early on by virtue of breaking from the rail. 

$1 Late Pick 4: 

4,8/ 5,7,8/ 1,3,4/ 7,9,13 = $54

 

Race 10:  The Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (4:30 ET)

  • #8 Ravalo (3/1)
  • #5 Ah Day (5/2*)
  • #7 Celtic Innis (10/1)

Speed is the name of the game in the 23rd running of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap, and #8 Ravalo has it.  True, his last two efforts at Aqueduct and Keeneland have left quite a bit to be desired, but this gelding has won an impressive 8 of 16 races at today’s 6 furlong distance.  I don’t think that can be ignored.  He’s breaking from the outside ,but should be able to get the lead and then shift over to save ground.  Speed tends to hold quite well at Pimlico, so he should be a force if he does indeed get loose up front.  #5 Ah Day shocked me by being 5/2 on the morning line.  I would have thought his recent darkened form trying to stretch out further might have increased his value.  Now we’ll be at the mercy of horseplayers to determine what price he actually goes to post as.  He should relish the distance change, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle, this son of Malibu Moon could be quite a force for trainer King Leatherbury.  #7 Celtic Innis is another runner who seems to thrive at the 6 furlong idstance, and has done especially well at Pimlico over his career.  He’s been on the shelf since January, but at 7-years-old  it could be that he just needed to get his legs back underneath him.   Another runner that did not make my final selections that gives me some pause is #5 Torpedo Run, who exits 3 consecutive victories.  He’ll probably be the guy I’m sweating out the most if I do indeed leave him off the late Pick 4.

 

Race 11: The Grade 2 Dixie (5:13 PM)

  • #4 Kiss the Kid (5/1)
  • #1 Proudinsky (5/2*)
  • #3 Parading (9/2)

Ah, the Dixie…such memories.  It was in this race last year that my Pick 6 dreams came to a crashing halt when longshot Pays to Dream upset the late Shakis and others, and my despair was forever captured on film (that’s me in the yellow hat in that picture right next to the finish line).  Time for some redemption, and what do you know, the gods of horse racing have seen fit to provide me with a Lemon Drop to get the job done!  You know I love me some Lemon Drops!  #4 Kiss the Kid exits two strong Beyer performances, in cluding a win in the Grade 3 Appleton in March.  The victory was his third in 4 starts, having only been defeated by Kip Deville in that sequence.  Kip Deville is one of the finest turf runners in North America, and while this field is deep, it doesn’t have any true monsters like him.  #1 Proudinksy is a guy I never leave ff my tickets.  He ran on Derby day against Einstein, Cowboy Cal, and Court Vision in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and comes right back two weeks later for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s always a threat on his top stuff, and the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Dixie seems to be his strong suit.  #3 Parading is likely the pace setter of the race, and could be handful if he’s allowed to gets too easy a lead.  There are others in here with designs on pressing that pace a bit, but his newfound early speed style should suit him very well.  #2 Monba and #8 Strike a Deal are also runners worth considering here.   Hopefully I won’t make it two years in a row being knocked out in the Dixie. 

 

Race 12: The Grade 1 Preakness (6:15 ET)

  • #13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5*)
  • #9 Pioneer of the Nile (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem(12/1)

So it all comes down to this.  The 134th running of  The Preakness.  Over 80 years of history are on the line!  Can Rachel Alexandra repeat the brilliance she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago?  Clearly the stakes have risen, and she finds herself in the deepest field she’s yet seen.  She’s drawn the outside, and will likely have to gun it from the start in order to save ground going into the first turn.  #1 Big Drama to the extreme inside also figures to be on the gas early on, creating a situation that might be ripe for the next flight of colts coming home.  That should include the group that finished 2, 3, 4 in the Kentucky Derby;  #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem, and #3 Musket Man.   Much has been made of Pioneer of the Nile either being of questionable quality or potentially “sitting on a big one.”  I tend to believe the latter of the two.  If not for that brilliant move by Calvin Borel to find the rail with Mine That Bird, Pioneer might have been Derby champion.  He should get a firmer surface to run over, and he looms the biggest threat to Queen Rachel’s attempt to achieve eternal glory.  The horse that I think is being most overlooked here is #7 Papa Clem.  What exactly did this guy do to deserve being ranked so low at 12/1?  Was he not less than a length behind Pioneer of the Nile?  He’ll be my longshot play, for sure.  I’m not really sure what to make of #5 Friesan Fire.   I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met Larry Jones at the Alibi Breakfast, I can’t stomach being responsible for another miserable performance, so he shall be the official “horse I shall not speak of” for this race.   Truth be told, I think he’s a sneaky threat if he has indeed healed….I’m just not going to name him in my picks.  #3 Musket Man is a horse that has really earned my respect over the Triple Crown campaign, and I could see him getting back up into the money again on Saturday.   As for the longer shots on the board, call me crazy but Take the Points at 30/1 looks very intriguing.   What to make of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird?  Well, you’ll never hear me disrsepect that horse again.  I’ve learned my lesson.  It’s just that without jockey Calvin Borel, and without the cool, damp climate that he seemed to thrive in so perfectly two weeks ago, I’m going to play againts him.  Besides,  all of that glorious value that made him famous in the Derby will now be gone thanks to being a household name.   I’ll be there to cheer for Rachel Alexandra, but I think she might be up against it, which is why I’m ultimately going to cover Pioneer and Papa Clem as well on the Pick 4.  

Preakness Selections:

  • $20 Win #7 Papa Clem
  • $1 Trifecta:  13/5,7,9/1,2,3,5,7,9,11 = $18

 

Best of luck to everyone.  I’ll likely be “tweeting” along with the action from the Turfside Terrace.  If you caught the action today on Black Eyed Susan Day, I was giving out paddock picks and other useful tips.  Needless to say my access to the paddock is non existant when I’m across the track in the Turfside Terrace, but I’ll be in prime position to watch the Preakness runners saddle.   You can follow along if you like from the link below:

http://twitter.com/kdawg68

Riders up!  :)


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Black Eyed Susan Day Picks

14 05 2009

As the rain begins to pour here in the greater Baltimore area, one of the mysteries flying somewhat under the radar at the moment is exactly how the track at Pimlico Race Course will play these next two days (especially Saturday).  The forecast calls for periods of showers/heavy rains, and temperatures approaching 80 degrees.   Being a common trait of the greater Mid Atlantic, it might get a bit muggy both days.   While we’re still over a day away from Preakness Saturday, Old Hilltop offers an intriguing card of 13 races on Friday, highlighted by the 85th running of the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan. 

With 13 races on the card, and another full day ahead of us tomorrow, I’m going to skip past the opening 3 races on the card and kick things off with our picks beginning in race 4, which happens to be the opening leg of the early Pick 4 sequence.   If you know me, you know I love to play the Pick 4 wagers on big racing days, and this weekend will be no exception on both Friday and Saturday.  Without further adieu, let’s see if we can pick some winners along the way.

Race 4: 1500s Hcp  (1:45 ET)

  • # 1 Maria’s Golden Rose (1/1*)
  • #5 Eye (5/2)
  • #7 Four Karats (6/1)

We kick things off with a starter handicap for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main track.   #1 Marias Golden Rose looks like the horse to beat here, and may even be worth taking a stand on in your “caveman” Pick 4 tickets.  The daughter of Eastern Echo has picked up the services of jockey Ramon Dominguez and looks to be a cut above the rest based on her Beyer Speed Figures in the Daily Racing Form.  As we all know though, you can’t go by those alone.  Pace wise she should get a nice stalking trip and be able to handle this field.   Trouble is, there won’t be much value on her as she’s the even money favorite on the morning line.   A potential thief exists in the form of #5 Eye, for trainer King Leatherbury.  Leatherbury has long been one of the top horsemen in Maryland racing, and when teamed with jockey Jeremy Rose they make a formidable battery.  She’s been close in each of her last 3 races and owns 6 lifetime wins.  #7 Four Karats is another interesting runner, and will be breaking from the extreme outside.   #2 Celestial Quest is your likely pace setter at long odds of 30/1.

$1 Trifecta:  1/ 2,5,7/ 2,4,5,7  = $9

$1 Pick 4:  1/ 2,8,9/ 3,4,6,7/ 1,2,3,6 = $48

 

Race 5: OC 25k/N2X (2:15 ET)

  • #8 And a Cherry Tree (4/1)
  • #2 Pissarro (5/2)
  • #9 Bette to Win (2/1*)

The fifth race is an N2X optional claimer for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  There are several directions bettors can go in this race and it might be wise to spread a bit deeper in this leg of the Pick 4.   Ultimately, I sided with the Graham Motion runner, #8 And a Cherry Tree.  She seems to always wind up in the Superfecta, and I like the way she fought back to finish 3rd after stumbling at the break last out.  She’s been off for a very long time, but so have many of the top runners in this race.  Plus, Graham Motion is hitting at 19% with runners exiting similar layoffs, so I’m not sure that should even be considered a concern.  Hopefully with all of the available options we might get a better price than the 4/1 she’s listed at on the morning line.  #2 Pissaro looks like a very strong player in here as well coming off a similar layoff.  Her trainer, Richard Small, doesn’t have quite the same form exiting such layoffs, but if she shows up anything like she looked last summer, she’ll be tough to defeat.  #9 Bette to Win is a horse you simply can’t ignore in the Pick 4.  Not only does the name scream “bet me”, but she’s got the type of speed you like to see in a 6 furlong sprint.  I’d also give some serious attention to the rail runner, #1 Magamoo, especially with Garrett Gomez in the irons.

$1 Trifecta: 8/1,2,9/ 1,2,3,9 = $9

 

Race 6:  The Very One 50k  (2:45 ET)

  • #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (6/1)
  • #4 Smart and Fancy (2/1*)
  • #6 Libor Lady (10/1)

We move to the turf (weather permitting) for the 6th race of the day, the 10th running of The Very One for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward sprinting 5 furlongs over the Pimlico grass.  #3 Ahvee’s Destiny heads out for the acclaimed Linda Rice barn, widely regarded as perhaps the best when it comes to turf sprinting.  She should get a great stalking trip, but will have to run down the speed in the stretch.  In her last effort she matched her top Beyer figure (90) and jockey C.C. Lopez returns to the saddle where he has won in his last two attempts.   #6 Smart and Fancy is the horse you’ve got to beat to cash at the windows.  She should be coming from off the pace but has shown a bit of versatility before having been closer to the pace 3 races back at the allowance level.  While the price is short, it would appear to be madness to leave this gal off your exotic wagers.  I made her my second choice partly because of the anticipated low odds, but she’s definitely one to take very seriously.  #6 Libor Lady is a bit of a price at 10/1 considering she loves to sprint over the grass and owns a victory here over the local turf.   No other runner in the field can say the same.  Two other runners that warrant strong consideration here are #7 Sheets, who will make her first start of the 2009 season but seems to have picked up an affinity for the turf, and #8 Canadian Ballet, who is the more speedy of the two Linda Rice runners in this contest.  Really any of these guys could win, and I’m quick to point out that turf sprints are definitely not my strong suit when it comes to handicapping.  In other words, I’ll be spreading here, likely quite deep.

$1 Trifecta: 3/4,6,7/ 4,6,7,8  = $9

 

Race 7: Alw 30000 N1X (3:15 ET)

  • #1 Streetscape (2/1*)
  • #3 Perpetuity (8/1)
  • #6 Bright Gem (5/2)

We wind up the early Pick 4 sequence with a conditional allowance sprint going 6 furlongs over the main track.   As you can see in the Pick 4 selections I gave out with race 4, I’m spread 4 deep here as well.  The way I see it, if you make it this far, it would stink to get knocked out by some lightly raced horse just because you decided to go cheap.  That’s my opinion at least.  Four horses intrigued me here, starting with the California shipper #1 Streetscape.  I don’t like the odds at 2/1, but track handicapper Frank Carulli of Pimlico is probably correct that the public will stay with this horse.  I’m on record multiple times as saying that I don’t worry about horses shipping east from California, or going from synthetics to dirt, as much as I do the other way around.  #3 Perpetuity might offer some value on the board.  This is an improving daughter of Successful Appeal that has won both of her career starts, an obvious indication of talent under the hood.   Ignore the combination of trainer Scott Lake and jockey Ramon Dominguez at your own peril.  #6 Bright Gem is a good looking chestnut that will probably wind up being my “paddock pick” for a quick win bet play (since I’m such a sucker for chestnuts).  Another horse I’m anxious to get a glimpse of is #2 Eyes of Erie.  She seems to be a popular pick amongst the DRF handicappers in the Friday edition of the Form.  She didn’t come up as one of my top 3 selections, but there’s enough here on paper to consider her worthy of coverage in the Pick 4.

$1 Trifecta: 1/2,3,6/ 2,3,6 = $6

 

Race 8:  The Jim McKay Turf Sprint (3:45 ET)

  • #2 True to Tradition (9/2)
  • #6 Heroes Reward (5/2*)
  • #12 Mr. Nightlinger (3/1)

The 4th running of The Jim McKay Turf Sprint is not part of a Pick 4 sequence, but it sets up as a great race nonetheless.  #2 True to Tradition has defeated his top rival today, #6 Heroes Reward, the last two times they’ve faced.  It was extremely difficult to separate these two, but ultimately that’s what I focused on to make True to Tradition the top pick.  The Scott Lake runner has been on the shelf since August, but has fired fresh before and absolutely relishes this distance.  Heroes Reward was able to defeat Chamberlain Bridge and #12 Mr. Nightlinger last out in the Grade 3 Sharktown at Keeneland.   Prior to that effort he was a close 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, beaten by only 2 1/4 lengths.  He’s got the recent form edge on True to Tradition, but hasn’t been able to put him away the last two times they’ve faced off.  You could see this one coming down to a battle between these two quite easily.  Although, I’m not so sure that the speedy #12 Mr. Nightlinger will let anyone just waltz away with this without putting up a fight.   He hasn’t found the winner’s circle since before his effort out in front in the Turf Sprint, but this is a runner who rattled off 5 straight victories back in ’08.  A longshot bomb I’m considering playing is #9 Crimson Sun.  Considering I’ll be milling about as likely the only attendee in an Alabama Crimson Tide baseball hat, the play seems only fitting and proper.

$1 Trifecta: 2/ 6,12/ 6,9,12 = $4

 

Race 9: The Skipat (4:10 ET)

  • #5 All Giving (1/1*)
  • #3 Fancy Diamond ( 6/1)
  • #4 What Time It Is (3/1)

We kick off the Late Pick 4 sequence with the17th running of The Skipat, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  The likely defection of La Chica Rica changes the anticipated hot pace of the relatively small field for The Skipat.  #5 All Giving should still get a very good stalking trip and have every chance to pounce on the front runner(s).  She’s 1 for 1 thus far over the Pimlico main track and should be 2 for 2 by the end of the day.  #3 Fancy Diamond should be part of the early pace now that La Chica Rica is gone.   As such she’s got a chance to hang on here.  Likewise, #4 What Time It Is should be right there early on as well and is likely the “speed of the speed.”  With such a small field this will likely turn into a jockey’s race, in which case the strongest play might be longshot Mikeslittlegirl at 15/1, with Ramon Domingeuz in the saddle.  That wasn’t enough for me to pull the trigger though, so I’ll take my chances with these runners, and likely single on All Giving to start the Late Pick 4.   Might as well get that single out of the way early and see if I’m still alive for the grand finale here to end the day.

$1 Pick 4:  5/ 3,4,5/1,2,4,5,7/ 2,7,8 = $45

 

Race 10: OC 32k/N3X (4:40 ET)

  • #5 Fareena (6/5*)
  • #4 Ziggly (5/1)
  • #3 Avie’s Tale (8/1)

We’re back on the turf witht the 10th from Pimlico, this time routing 1 1/16 Miles over the grass.  #5 Fareena has been on the shelf since last October, but was a decent stakes runner over the last two years and this looks like a good spot to begin her 2009 campaign.  She must return in sharp form to prevail, and the short odds might not be worth the risk, but it’s very encouraging to see jockey Garrett Gomez get the mount.  #4 Ziggly has a name that sounds eerily similar to a horrific Ben Affleck/Jennifer Anniston film, but I won’t hold that against her.  She may get overloked based on her recent darkened form, but if you are forgiving and draw a line through those last two races, she clearly belongs.   This is a runner who rattled off 4 wins in 5 starts at one point last year, so look for a rebound this Friday.  #3 Avie’s Tale is very intriguing at odds of 8/1 on the morning line.  Trainer Timothy Salzman is hitting at almost 30% for the year with turf runners, and this gal has won before of a layoff.   I would not leave her off the exotic tickets. If for some reason this race is moved to the main track, don’t forget about #8 Hello Poochi Pooh, who would suddenly become a serious win candidate.

$1 Trifecta: 5/3,4/2,3,4,6 = $6

 

Race 11:  The Adena Stallions Miss Preakness (5:20 ET)

  • #4 Cinderella’s Wish (10/1)
  • #2 Heart Ashley (8/5*)
  • #5 Gatorette (7/2)

The 24th running of the Miss Preakness has come up  as a very competitive race.  As you can tell from my pick 4 play mentioned in the review of race 9, I’ve spread deep here and covered 5 of the 8 runners.  That’s because my top choice came up as 10/1 longshot #4 Cinderella’s Wish.  The daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown has improved in each of her two lifetime races, and another move forward on Friday could show her the way to the winner’s circle yet again.  She’s training well and she reatains the services of jockey Jeremy Rose.   Look out!  While I like her chances quite a bit, there are some other runners in here with equally good chances.  Assuming she does not bounce, #2 Heart Ashley has to be considered a threat to winher third consecutive race here.  She’s yet to run out of the exacta in 5 lifetime races, which speaks volumes about her talent.   I’m not sure she’s ready to crack the 100 Beyer threshold again, but she doesn’t exactly need to to prevail.   #4 Gatorette is an interesting runner having been sent off at 2/1 against the “other” top filly in the nation, Justwhistledixie, in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss back in March.   Her workout tab suggests that this daughter of Distorted Humor is ready to roll.  #7 Mani Bhavan is a horse I’d probably advise playing against on most occassions, but I’m willing to give her one more chance here in the exotics.   Lastly, don’t overlook the rail runner in here, #1 Bold Union who will likely go off at odds similar to thoe of Cinderella’s Wish.

$10 WPS #4 Cinderella’s Wish

 

Race 11:  The Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan (5:50 ET)

  • #2 Payton d’Oro (9/2)
  • #7 Casanova Move (5/2*)
  • #8 Don’t Forget Gil (7/2)

We wind up the day with the 85th running of The Black Eyed Susan, the feature race of the day.  Hooh Why  has likely scratched from this race, and would have been a major player.  The result is that most of the betting action will likely be focused on #7 Casanova Move and #2 Payton d’Oro.  I’ll start with Payton d’Oro, who came up as my top selection even with Hooh Why in the field.  The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has won three straight for trainer Larry Jones, who I consider to be the nation’s finest horsemen when it comes to preparing 3- year-old fillies.  It’s wise to remember that another daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is favored this Saturday against the boys in the Preakness.  We don’t quite know how good she is, but you get the feeling from her recent workout at Delaware Park that another move forward is not out of the question.  #7 Casanova Move has had some bad luck lately, going without a win in 7 consecutive starts.  It must be recognized though that 3 of those 7 starts came against Justwhistledixie, who would be a heavy favorite in my opinion if she showed up here today.  Trainer James Jerkens may indeed have her in the correct spot to find her way back to the winner’s circle where she belongs.  #8 Don’t Forget Gil is a hit or miss type that you don’t want to have off your tickets on the days when he hits.  Of the rest of the field, I could make a case for #5 Bon Jovi Girl to wind up hitting the board, and I suppose it might be worth it to cover #4 Stone Legacy on the bottom of the exotics, considering she did run 2nd (though beaten by over 20 lengths) to Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago.

$1 Trifecta: 2/ 7,8/ 4,5,7,8 = $6

I’ll be back with my Preakness picks late tomorrow, as I likely won’t even get home from Black Eyed Susan Day until late in the evening.   Best of luck to everyone that is playing along.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico

Alibi Breakfast recap

14 05 2009

“Preakness Thursday” can mean only one thing if you’re in the Baltimore area, and that’s the annual Alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course.  A tradition going back to the 1930′s, the Alibi breakfast is one of the best kept secrets of thoroughbred racing’s 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.  Owners, trainers, dignitaries, and fans gather to honor those who have made contributions to the racing industry, as well as to stir things up with some juicy talk about the upcoming Preakness.  For yours truly, it’s the one opportunity of the year to rub elbows with some of the bigger names in the sport, and attempt to learn inside information about the race that is the focal point of my entire year.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

First things first, I was not able to fulfill priority #1, which was to meet “Team Rachel.”  Jess Jackson did not appear to be in attendance, nor was trainer Steve Asmussen.  Instead, assistant trainer Scott Blasi stood in for them.  While he may not be as well known from a household name perspective, he was the unsung hero behind the success of Curlin in ’07 and ’08.  He mentioned that the filly has looked amazing since he’d been with her and that they can’t wait to run her.  In a light hearted moment (the Alibi breakfast being filled with such moments), he answered a question concerning her outside post position in the 13 hole by saying “I just hope Calvin doesn’t forget where he is on the track and try to skim the outside rail.” 

One related piece of information that fans of Curlin will enjoy hearing is that yes, Pancho, the horse that travelled the globe with the 2007/2008 Horse of the Year has made the journey to Baltimore to be with Rachel Alexandra.  That can only be interpreted as a positive sign, as Pancho is highly regarded for having a calming effect on horses under his watch.  To many, Pancho is just as beloved as Curlin, which is really saying something for a horse that has gone almost completely unnoticed to the general public.   He’s a silent hero type.  Blasi mentioned during his speech that the connections of Rachel Alexandra do worry a bit about what might spook her or cause her to stress a bit.  With Pancho by her side, those fears have to be greatly reduced.  He’s a special horse in his own right, and his presence with Rachel makes me feel extremely good about her chances of running big on this, her biggest stage.

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

 

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty.  Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted).  He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go.   Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man.  It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year.   As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel.  For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick  after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge.

Perhaps the most amazing moment of the day for us was that we stood in the breakfast buffet line with the connections of Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, including trainer Chip Woolley Jr.   In fact, at one point Amy even tapped him on the shoulder and warned him that it looked like his wallet was about to fall out of his back pocket.  I’ve got to say, Mine That Bird’s connections cast quite the appearance, with their tall Texan cowboy hats, and they were consummate gentlemen.  During the ceremony, Woolley joked that he was unaccustomed to police escorts upon arriving to town, and mentioned that “the last time the cops were behind me, I went to jail.”  He also expanded upon his comments after the Derby indicating that he felt strongly that Mine That Bird’s victory was a “win for the little guys” around the world, and that while they were sad to lose jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra, they were quite pleased to pick up the services of Hall of Famer Michael Smith.  

I must confess here that while I was not a very big Mine That Bird fan going into the Preakness, it would be something else to see these guys win.  They were arguably the most down to earth and easily approachable of those connected to the Preakness runners.  You can tell they are still beaming with pride, as Woolley signed our program with a big “KD 135″ under his name.  Yes indeed, Derby 135 shall always be theirs to savor.

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Moving on, Gary Stute gave a heartfelt speech about how he had invited his father to see Papa Clem in the Preakness, as he worried this might be his last chance to do so.  Papa Clem is named after racing legend Clement Hirsch. Stute’s father is apparently not in the greatest of health.  He joked that he “insisted” his family come to see Papa Clem run in the Preakness, but that he had done so before he knew they were up against the filly.  On a side note, when first driving past the backside of Pimlico on our way in this morning, I saw Papa Clem galloping about (from the window of our moving car, mind you), and I thought he looked fantastic.   Personally, I think Papa Clem is being totally disrespected on the morning line at 12/1 (let me condition that by saying that yes, I understand that’s not the odds maker’s actual opinion and that it’s really just his prediction of how the betting public will wind up).  If the public does send this horse out at 12/1,  I think it’s a huge mistake.  Although it’s one I’ll try to capitalize on at the betting windows.

The moment that will probably stick out the most to those in attendance were the interviews with trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas.   Baffert indicated that he thought Pioneer of the Nile would get a good trip stalking behind the early pacesetters (assuming Big Drama goes from the 1 hole and that Rachel goes as well from the outside).   He also mentioned that he tried to purchase Rachel Alexandra at one point but that he was “too cheap” and couldn’t afford the hefty price tag.   He said that as a fan he was blown away by her performance in the Oaks.  Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneer of the Nile, and he looks to be one that could be sitting on a big performance.   I mentioned this on Facebook last evening, but there can’t be any doubt that he’ll be a part of the finish.  At 5/1 he’ll probably be the second choice when they go to post.  Baffert also mentioned that he went into the post draw hoping for the 9, 10, or 11 hole, and being as that they got the  9 hole with speed on both sides, he thought they were in good spot.

Lukas was the absolute highlight of the morning.  He started by discussing his two 50-1 longshots, Luv Gov and Flying Private.  He asked Woolley and the Mine That Bird connections for some advice on how to get things done at 50/1.  Then he offered that Luv Gov was named for former Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York, and joked that he had another filly named 9th Client.  In the end he said that he didn’t have any delusions of upsetting this field with a 50/1 longshot, but that he’s been in racing long enough to know that if you have horses that you think belong in the race, you might as well run them.  

An interesting tidbit for folks who are fond of Musket Man, for owners Eric Fein & Vic Carlson.  Mr. Carlson mentioned that while he likes his horses chances, he’d “probably be betting on him to show” against this field.  He also mentioned that his girlfriend (as a side note, Mr. Carlson and I seem to have a similar taste in women…just sayin’) advised that her lucky number was 3, so they feel good about the post position.  Personally I like this horse quite a bit.  It’s kind of hard to separate him, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem because they finished so close in the Derby.   He seems like a fighter though.  Plus, I love hearing his trainer, Derek Ryan, talk prior to races.  Sadly, I did not see him in attendance as I was hoping to get to meet him as well.

As for the rest of the field, the consensus seemed to be that Big Drama would be forced to go quickly from the inside post position.  A little birdie happened to mention to me that Big Drama has looked very impressive in their opinion while working out at Pimlico.  I know, I know, he wasn’t one of the horses I was going to play either, but just remember that last year the juicy piece of information I received from the Alibi breakfast was that Macho Again looked much better in training than his odds suggested.  I’m just throwing that out there (note, that juicy tidbit about Macho Agian is in the comments section of the post I’ve hyperlinked to from last year).

It also remains impossible to root against a horse like General Quarters and his trainer Thomas McCarthy.  By the way, in an interesting fact I had not heard before, it was revealed that McCarthy actually taught former NBA great Wes Unseld in High School back in Kentucky.  Unseld of course has deep Baltimore connections having coached the Washington Wizards (technically then known as the Washington Bullets) for years.

Lastly, if you’re looking to play a local angle, than consider that M&D Stables, who are sending out longshot Tone it Down (3rd in the Federico Tesio on May 2), are a Maryland operation through and through….right down to their silks, which are fashioned in the spirit of the Maryland flag.   Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Tone it Down, the same man who rode Big Brown to victory so brilliantly last year in the Preakness.

Overall, we wound up meeting, talking to, and getting autographs from ”Chip” Woolley Jr., D. Wayne Lukas, Larry Jones, Vic Carlson, and the connections to Tone it Down.  We also ran into some of the NTRA staff that I was privileged enough to meet last fall at the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas (and to my surprise, they remembered who I was – even remembered my name!).  Along the way we also managed to consume several Black Eyed Susans, making us the proud owners of 4 of the prized collector’s item Preakness glasses.  We would’ve made out with more, but that was all we could carry.

 

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

I also want to give a HUGE shout out to our friends Tex and Cindy from over at horseracing.about.com.   Without them, Amy and I would likely have never even attempted to take in an Alibi breakfast, and what an experience we’d have missed.   One final parting shout out here to Carrie Everly, the VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club.  I don’t know that I’ve ever met a host who makes us feel more welcomed anywhere in the world.  She goes out of her way to make us feel like we belong.  Carrie, if you’re reading this, please know how much we appreciate you.  The MJC is lucky to have a person like you in their employ. 

Alright….now I just need to rest off those Black Eyed Susans and get to handicapping.  I’ll be back later tonight with a full lineup of picks for tomorrow’s races on, what else, Black Eyed Susan day!  :)


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Categories : Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown Coverage

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