Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips. Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.
http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html
Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness. Wow. Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning. Unbelievable. And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection. I must be the absolute kiss of death. My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby.
I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby. That makes 3 straight top choices for me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week). That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week! I’m almost scared to name a new choice.
Since I must though, I shall.
Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion. I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up. There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez. Go baby, go! 
So what else do we do? Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics. I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well. I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer.
Looking on the positive side of things. Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, and Square Eddie, just to name a few. And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks. That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.
But seriously…can this be “it?” Can we not have any more setbacks?
The picks of many are in chaos. Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.
An absolute nail biter between Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, and Dunkirk for top honors. I can’t stress how difficult that decision was. I’m still agonizing over it. I won’t be leaving any of them off the Pick 4 ticket, that much I promise you.
I also think Papa Clem looks to have an improved chance. Look for a closer to be moving well late as well, perhaps either Hold Me Back or Summer Bird (think Birdstone in the Belmont).
The ‘off-going’ will be the factor here. FRIESAN FIRE looks to be the ‘mud’ stand-out but don’t overlook DESERT PARTY in the slop!!! PAPA CLEM is also above average in the ‘off-going’ – nothing more. Would suggest WEST SIDE BERNIE – but have been loath to suggest him due to the connotations with BERNIE MADOFF – talk about your freudian/adlerian/jungian/meningerian hang-ups???!!! Play numbers, colours, jockeys, trainers, whatever – good luck!!!
Pioneer should handle the mud. Empire Maker did great on it. Also Pioneer galloped 1 1/2 miles at Churchill on a sloppy track in his works and from what I read he liked it.
Track seems to favor the front runners so far today. Probably best if Pioneer does not stay too far behind.
[...] http://theaspiringhorseplayer.com/2009/05/02/i-want-revenge-scratched-from-the-kentucky-derby/ Original Story: http://theaspiringhorseplayer.com/200… [...]
Should have known when ‘Hammerin’ HANK selected FF – it was the kiss-of-death. GREAT RACE – MORE POWER TO THE CONNECTIONS OF MINE THAT BIRD AND THAT HORSE’S TRAINER-OWNERS-AND CONNECTIONS. Made me smile at the ‘luck’ of horse-racing!!! WAY TO GO CALVIN BO-RAIL!!! [My wife had the exacta of CALVIN+KENT yesterday in the OAKS and did not hit CALVIN+KENT today as HOLD ME BACK did not finish second - playing jocks sometimes pays off!!!]
[...] post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths. Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched. My apologies to the Larry Jones camp. Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury. [...]
[...] sent shock waves through the family car that still reverberate to this day. And, much like my kiss-of-death Kentucky Derby selections, while the Orioles would win the World Series that season over none other than the Phillies, it [...]
[...] As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty. Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted). He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go. Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man. It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year. As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel. For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge. [...]
[...] I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby [...]
[...] to make of #5 Friesan Fire. I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met [...]