THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

One good lady deserves another. It’s only fitting and proper.  Of course,in the cases of the phenoms that are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, “good” is a rather modest choice of words, but I’ll trust the expression is not lost upon the reader.  After witnessing history with Rachel Alexandra’s triumph in the Preakness last weekend, we return this weekend with the undefeated Zenyatta, or as I like to call her “Slow Cheetah“,  making her 2009 debut in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.  If things hold up, these two ladies might be on a collision course for Breeders’ Cup weekend this October, and when all is said and done they might have a Horse of the Year title on the line between them.  For now though, each runner has more immediate challenges to concern themselves with.

It’s been over half a year since we’ve seen the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry rolling to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last October at Santa Anita.   This weekend she’ll put her undefeated record on the line against fellow stablemate Life Is Sweet, who is exiting 3 consecutive graded stakes victories of her own and clearly in top form.  You can see the story lines running through this race already.  Life Is Sweet comes into the race in peak condition.  Zenyatta comes off the shelf after a sustained layoff.  If they both run to their previous class (and there’s no reason to suspect they’ll do otherwise) It looks very much like the Milady will turn into a two horse affair.  The field sets up like this:

• #1 Gambler’s Justice (M. Garcia/ B. Spawr) 20/1
• #2 Taste’s Sis (D. Sorenson/M. Polanco) 30/1
• #3 Allicansayis Wow (J. Talamo/ P. Biancone) 20/1
• #4 Dawn After Dawn (J. Rosario/ J. Sadler) 10/1
• #5 Champagne Eyes (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 8/1
• #6 Bel Air Sizzle (R. Bejarano/ B. Abrams) 20/1  Note: likely to scratch
• #7 Life Is Sweet (G. Gomez/ J. Shirreffs) 5/2
• #8 Hot n’ Dusty (A. Solis/ B. Abrams) 50/1  Note: likely to scratch
• #9 Zenyatta (M.Smith/ J. Shirreffs) 3/5*

Before Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta can make it a two horse race, however, they’ll need to wear down the early speed.  Luckily for them, it appears on paper that ample speed has signed on here to suit their respective closing styles.  #1 Gambler’s Justice along the rail and #2 Taste’s Sis both appear to be speedy types that should be forwardly placed earlier on.   #5 Champagne Eyes is also likely to be a part of the pace, although she may attempt to press from just behind the rail runner.  #4 Dawn After Dawn should be stalking early on in about 3rd or 4th position, anywhere from 2-4 lengths behind the early pace. 

As the field begins to turn into the stretch, the real race should begin, and it may well come down to who gets first jump between Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to give Zenyatta the slight edge here, despite the long layoff.  We’ve simply never seen a situation that she can’t overcome.  She’s thrived at Hollywood Park ever since breaking her maiden there on a Thursday night in November of 2007.   Moreover, she’s a perfect 6 for 6 at the 1 1/16 mile distance, which appears to be her comfort zone.  Admittedly, she’s perfect at everything she’s attempted thus far, so that last bit might not seem to matter much at first glance, but if this race were being run at either a shorter 1 mile distance or a longer 1 1/8 mile distance then perhaps there would be reason to suspect some vulnerability.  Conversely, it’s debatable whether 1 1/16 miles is the preferred distance for Life Is Sweet.  Surely she can clearly score at that distance, but she might be a better runner at 1 1/8 miles.

I’ll play Zenyatta on top, even though she’ll be a huge favorite.  Underneath I’ll use Life Is Sweet, who I think will make it very close but most likely come up just short at the wire.   With the two Barry Abrams runners (#6 Bel Air Sizzle and #8 Hot n’ Dusty) likely to scratch, I’ll focus underneath on the longshot #3 Allicansayis Wow, who managed to prevail last out against optional claimers despite clipping heels in the stretch. I’d expect a much improved effort this time out in only her 2nd start in the U.S.  I’ll also toss in Champagne Eyes, Dawn After Dawn, and the rail runner Gambler’s Justice (just in case she holds on for a slice). 

I’m keeping the ticket on the cheap side here, but if you feel confident with a particular combination it might be a good idea to hammer it through the betting windows 10 to 20 times, as the straight exacta is not likely to return much of a payout.

Selections:

• #9  Zenyatta (3/5*)
• #7 Life Is Sweet (5/2)
• #3 Allicansayis Wow (20/1)

$1 Trifecta  9/7/1,3,4,5 =$4

Best of luck to everyone, and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.