A Saturday to remember

28 06 2009

What a Saturday we’ve just witnessed!  Where on earth shall I even begin?  As many of you know, this weekend we loaded up the family and completed a roughly 500 mile round trip journey to witness Rachel Alexandra’s return to racing in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.  Ostensibly, the trip was a birthday present for my wife, who has grown quite attached to Rachel since watching her romp in the Kentucky Oaks in early May.  I use the term ostensibly here because, let’s be honest, you don’t have to twist my arm to get me to the track. 

With that in mind, we loaded up the family and rolled into New York city at roughly 1 Am Saturday morning.  Reveille was bright and early so that we could rise with time to do some morning handicapping, take in breakfast, and head out to Belmont for the day’s events.  Little did we know what we were in for.

At first glance, the prospects for the day seemed rather bleak.  As the scratches and changes for the day’s card were announced, it became clear that Rachel would be facing only two other horses in the Mother Goose.  Presumably (and forgive me if I’m mistaken here as with 500+ miles logged in the last 36 hours, suffice to say there hasn’t been a good deal of time available for fact checking) the Preakness champion had scared away most of her competition.  Eyebrows were raised that the race was even being run, but then again, given the healthy crowd on hand (which from my vantage point seemed quite larger than Curlin drew for his turf debut in the Man O’ War last summer)  that was largely there just to see Rachel- it seemed the correct decision to leave the race on the card.

Then, Rachel made her appearance.  I believe my “tweet“ at the time was something to the effect of “My god, just look at her!”  As unbelievably good as she appeared on Preakness day last month, she looked even better on Saturday.  I didn’t think that was humanly (equinely) possible, but somehow she looked bigger, stronger, and more majestic.  I blurted out “you guys are braver than me!”  to the jockeys aboard her competitors, and then sprinted back to our seats near the finish line to watch the race unfold.

Rachel Alexandra heading to post in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park - 6/27/09

After witnessing Rachel’s absolutely dominating performance, I think it’s safe to say that’s the last time 3-year-old fillies will be willing to take her on.  Seriously…it should probably be illegal.  They simply stand no chance against her.  Then again, beyond a late run from Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness, neither did the 3-year-old boys.  

 

 

Now, in all fairness her competitors helped her out a bit by running insanely fast early on.  Malibu Prayer and Flashing set  ”suicide fractions”  of :22.57 and :44.66 to open the race, but Rachel was every bit as good as advertised when asked for her run.  She simply inhaled her rivals once she made her move and then busted loose in jailbreak fashion to open up a 19 1/4 length victory in a stakes record time for the 1 1/8 mile race of 1:46.33.   

And you know what?  Watching her run, she could’ve gone faster if either her or jockey Calvin Borel had wanted to do so.   But why waste too much energy today when their are bigger and better things on the horizon?

Uh-oh…here comes that nasty debate again. 

You can’t mention Rachel’s future without two topics coming up right away;  The Breeders’ Cup and a potential showdown with Zenyatta.  For now, both remain unlikely as owner Jess Jackson maintains that Rachel will not run on the “plastics” under any circumstances.   Instead, races such as the Travers and the Haskell seem likely targets for her next effort. 

Speaking of Zenyatta, “slow cheetah” was not to be outdone, running fantastically as well.  In typical Zenyatta style she made it all look easy in whipping her 11th consecutive field to take the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. 

 

 

It might not have looked as sexy as Rachel’s victory, but Zenyatta was carrying a daunting 129 pounds.   That’s no small task.  You won’t see a runner breaking track records carrying that kind of weight.  The important thing to note was that it still looked effortless for her.  Even with all that weight on her back  it still looks like she’s just toying with the competition.  What a beast!

Just as the other 3-year-old fillies seem powerless to stop Rachel, the older fillies and mares seem utterly incapable of stopping Zenyatta (“you cannot stop her, you can only hope to contain her!”)

Clearly, these two runners are the best in the business at the moment, and the horse racing world waits with baited breath wishing, hoping, and praying that somehow, someday we’ll see them face each other. 

About that potential Zenyatta/Rachel matchup that will continue to be the elephant in the room all year…a thought struck me on the way home that I just couldn’t shake.  Think on this for a moment, if you will.

Should we be pushing for a matchup between these two? 

Is our sport really not big enough at the moment for the greatness of each? 

We don’t exactly have a very deep pool of greatness to choose from.  I think it’s worth remembering that if/when they do meet up, that one of them would have to lose.  I guess at some level, in my heart of hearts, I don’t really want either of them to go through that.   True, Rachel’s doesn’t have the whole “undefeated” mystique that Zenyatta does, but she’s certainly on a roll that I’d hate to see stop.  Likewise, it would be incredibly special if Zenyatta could finish her career undefeated. 

I guess I can dream for now that if it ever does takes place, the two hit the wire in a dead heat.  That’s the way I’d write this story if it were my book.  Two valiant competitors, each with their own breathtaking style – giving one another all they can handle.  An agonizing photo finish.  And in the end, victory for each.   Oh well…a guy can dream can’t he? 

I’ll end on this note.  You guys know how strong my love of Curlin remains to this day.  Check this out and tell me I don’t have the best wife in the world?  Somehow she managed to obtain both Jess Jackson’s and Steve Asmussen’s autographs as they prepared to send Rachel to post.  When she first considered even bringing the hat, I tried to tell her that she’d never get the chance and that to even try was folly.  Good thing she didn’t listen to my advice!   As if that weren’t enough, thanks to a discussion with another Rachel fan from our Facebook fanclub, we managed to use Big Jerome in the 2nd leg of the late Pick 4 (Lisa, if you’re reading this – I’m talking about you, buddy!  Great call!).  That choice coupled with the timely disqualification of a runner in the final leg of the sequence led to a nice Pick 4 score that ended the day on an even higher note than had already been achieved.

Curlin hat autographed by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen 

So yes, apparently a guy can dream…and sometimes those dreams come true!  :)


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Categories : Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

In support of Jess Jackson’s decision to skip the Breeders’ Cup Classic

24 06 2009

You’ve got to hand it Jess Jackson. The man sure knows how to keep things interesting.  Following his official announcement today that his filly Rachel Alexandra will not run in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita this October, the horse racing world is once again buzzing with passionate debate.   Already folks are lining up on one side or the other.  Depending on where you stand, his decision was either totally correct or tragically flawed.

Given my history of affection for his previous champion, it’s probably not surprising that I’m in the former camp.  

Allow me to explain in detail.

First things first.  Not a single day has gone bye since last October that I haven’t remembered with disgust the sight of watching Curlin, the world’s undisputed best dirt horse, struggle over a turf impersonating Santa Anita Pro Ride in the 2008 Classic.  As a testament to his courage, heart, and talent, he managed to get to the front as the field straightened out for the stretch, but it was only for a fleeting moment.  Within seconds he was being blown past by the likes of eventual “champion” Raven’s Pass.  In my mind, for fans of Curlin and for horse racing, this was an absolutely unforgivable crime.

I said it last year, and I’ll say it again now:

“Artificial surfaces produce artificial (dirt) champions.” 

It’s really as simple as that. 

Now, looking back at Jess Jackson and his decision:  Put yourself in the man’s shoes.  Despite it being a veritable money pit from a profitability standpoint, the man brought back the 2007 Horse of the Year “for the fans”, and raced him around the world from Kentucky, to New York, to Dubai.  He was victorious everywhere he went.   What was the thanks he had in the end?  Oh yeah, that’s right:  “Hey Jess, now you have to ship your horse to California to run over a plastic surface!”  

 Great, grand, wonderful.   Way to ruin our precious little field trip! 

Now we’re left with a perplexing situation.  Just weeks ago, folks were declaring their “concern” that Jackson would have the audacity to run Rachel Alexandra in either the Preakness or the Belmont.   “My god….has he lost his mind??? Doesn’t he realize she’s just a filly?”

Rachel put those concerns to bed by romping from gate to wire, holding off the Kentucky Derby winner to become the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness.  Moreover, she instantly established herself as the most popular 3-year-old in the nation,  as well as the most talented.

Fast forward to today, and it’s amazing that suddenly Jackson is a villain for not wanting to run his horse in (presumably) the Breeders’ Cup Classic?   What?  I seriously don’t get this.

 

The infamous “keyboard cat” of youtube fame plays off a true villian

 

Wouldn’t she be facing boys again in the Classic?  Wouldn’t she also have to tackle a new surface?  How is that not MORE alarming than the worries expressed prior to the Preakness?   Sometimes I think folks just love to hate.  Give ‘em any excuse in the world, and they’ll seize on it.  Truth be told, Rachel has been on synthetics before.  She’s got a victory at Keeneland at the Allowance level, but the Pro Ride at Santa Anita is an entirely different story. 

Need another consideration?  What about her running style?   She’s basically a front runner, with the ability to press/rate if the situation demands.  My question for fellow handicappers is this:  When considering the chances of a speedy type such as Rachel, aren’t you more comfortable with such a runner on a true dirt surface than a synthetic surface?   To be fair, it’s not like front runners DON”T win at Santa Anita.  They do…in fact sometimes they win in bunches, but typically you expect a synthetic race to be run closer to a traditional turf race – with a bit of a cavalry charge finish.   My suspicion is that if Rachel had to fight for the lead every step of the way, as she did against Big Drama in the 2009 Preakness, that she’d probably fade in the stretch.  I’ve no interest in seeing that, personally, and I’m sure Jess feels the same way.   It’s not fair to the horse, it’s not fair to the purity/integrity of the game and the “championships” themselves, and it’s certainly not fair to those that love her and want to see her put in position to succeed.

Consider for a moment the role of the owner in all of this.  In other sports, such as football, we praise coaches who “get the most of their athletes” by “putting them in position to win.”  Sending Rachel to run in the Classic over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita would not be consistent with “putting her in a position to win.”  In fact, in my mind it would be more like  playing someone out of their natural position.

“Oh, what’s this?  Manny Ramirez moves in from Left Field to play Shortstop!  This ought to work out well for the Dodgers!”

Obviously that would be crazy, right?   Well, perhaps with the right Performance Enhancing Drugs…nah, never mind.  It’d be sheer lunacy.  Heck, even the picture below of Manny walking to his outfield position through shortstop just looks wrong. 

 

Or, think of it this way.  If you follow pro football transactions, and specifically along the defensive line, you’ll hear teams talking about needing a “3 technique tackle”, or a guy who can play Defensive End in a base 3-4 defense as opposed to a 4-3.   True, you get a few “tweeners” who seem suited for both, but bye and large players tend to succeed when they are put in the correct position and given the best chance to succeed. 

For example, Tom Brady will likely once again be the top player selected in many of our Fantasy Football drafts in the coming months (provided the owner holding the 1st pick wasn’t burned by his injury last year).   He’s one of the top quarterbacks in the game (if not THE top).   But you’d never stick him in at Running Back though, would you?  You’d never ask him to suddenly play middle ‘backer, either.  That would be insane.   Why?  Because you’d be asking him to play out of his natural position.  

Tom Brady; Great quarterback, probably a crappy linebacker

Rachel Alexandra’s natural position is taking a field gate-to-wire over a true dirt surface.  That’s where she excels.  That’s when she’s in the “best position to succeed.”  Why on earth should someone be forced to place her anywhere else?  Just because it’s “the Classic?”  I only ask that for all those who are determined to blame Jackson for “ruining the Breeders’ Cup” by refusing to run her, that you have the same level of anger directed at the Breeders’ Cup for their decision to force the hand of owners who aren’t interested in bringing their dirt horses to run for plastic championships.  In my opinion they’ve now cost us 2 potentially brilliant champions in both Curlin last year, and Rachel this year.  

…And all for the lure of the marketing dollar.  That’s what this is really all about anyway.  The only reason the race is at Santa Anita again this year is so the BC could schmooze it up with local businesses and sell more infield real estate  See, personally, as a fan of racing, I could give a rats ass about that stuff.  I don’t really care how much Nextell is ponying up (no pun intended) for an advertising booth.  What I care about is seeing championship caliber racing.  If you look at it that way, if we’ve sold out the true spirit of top quality racing for the almighty marketing dollar, then I’m actually happy if this entire decision blows up in their collective faces. 

Seriously….I can’t let this go….didn’t it just feel hideously wrong to anyone but me when handicapping the “dirt mile” last year when it wasn’t even going to be run on dirt?   There’s just something basically wrong with that, no matter how you slice it. 

Jackson took one for the team last year.  He sent his horse like he was supposed to.  He gave it the old college try.  It didn’t work.   What’s that famous saying folks like to trot out from time to time to sound uber-intelligent?   “Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them.”  Well, sounds to me like Jess has learned from the mistakes of the past, and he’s determined not to repeat them.   After all, you don’t become as successful and wealthy as he is without having a keen ability from a decision making standpoint. 

Several weeks ago in the Daily Racing Form, Steven Crist pondered whether it was time to revive the idea of permanently moving the Breeders’ Cup to a “neutral” site like Churchill Downs.  I couldn’t agree more.   Especially if we’re going to pretend that the Classic is our biggest race and should have a major say in determining who our overall champion is.  

“Artificial surfaces produce artificial (dirt) champions.” 

That’s my take.  What’s yours?

 


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Churchill Downs, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

20 06 2009

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature.  This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park.  Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes.  Along those lines,  Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out.  So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!” 

The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card.   That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6.  Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance.  The more the merrier!  Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us. 

Enough about that for now though.  Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
  • #1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
  • #3 Gray Suitor (4/1)

We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes  in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs.  This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds.  Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper.  The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today.  Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level.   Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field.  This one looked pretty obvious to me on top. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 7 -  The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET

1 1/8 Miles

  • #7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
  • #3 All Night Labor (10/1)
  • #8 Skylighter (3/1)

Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here.  She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before.  If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price. 

All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good.  Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races. 

Skylighter is very interesting from the outside.  I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means.  Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount.  You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he? 

 

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET

5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
  • #13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
  • #11 Excessive Heat (15/1)

Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection.  I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events.  That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race.  Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well. 

Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision.  The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl  ($125k)- 4:51 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
  • #5 Cat Moves (8/1)
  • #1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)

Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl.  I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races.  In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.  

Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle.  The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance. 

Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET

1 1/4 Miles - Turf

  • #6 Dynaforce (3/1)
  • #3 Criticism (5/2*)
  • #4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)

We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York.  No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week.  The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?  

First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much.  Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more.  Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year.  She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch. 

Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well.  If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be  potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of  the softer footing underneath her hooves.

Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today.  I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?

 

Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET

1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
  • #7 Indescribable (7/2)
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)

Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the  Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend.  That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie.  This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort.  She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here.  In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price.  As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith. 

Indescribable is another interesting runner here.  Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good.  Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way. 

I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
  • #8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (7/2)

The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners.  Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here.   Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today.  My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April?  My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft?  Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness). 

Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use.  I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names.  Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army.  William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.”  As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance. 

Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  I suspect he’ll run big here as well.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9  – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #2 Grazen (2/1*)
  • #3 Cape Truth (7/2)
  • #1 Misremembered (4/1)

We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16  miles over the main cushion track.  I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3.  The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground.  Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score. 

Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out.  He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill. 

Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert.  This is a small, yet competitive field.

 

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra

The fairy tale continues; Rachel Alexandra heads to the Mother Goose

17 06 2009

It’s in our darkest hours that we often find our brightest stars shine most brilliantly. Their radiance casting the perfect contrast to those bleak horizoned afternoons where nothing is as it seems, or as it should be.  In the midst of our emptiness, something catches our eye.  A glimpse perhaps, or even a glimmer.  In that micro-second when true greatness passes our field of vision and comes into contact with our consciousness, we are reminded again what it is to be moved, humbled, and awed by that which we so long to see.  We remember what it is to truly live life full of passion and pride.

 

The filly Rachel Alexandra becomes the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay - http://horseracing.about.comRachel Alexandra becomes the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay http://horseracing.about.com

 

The past few weeks have been riddled with the defeats of some of our most cherished and well respected runners.  It might be said that the most recent incarnation of this trend began when Mine That Bird was upset by the “other Bird” (Summer Bird) in the Belmont Stakes.  Heading into last weekend, much of the hype was then centered around the return of some of racing’s current biggest stars; Indian Blessing and Kip Deville, as well as the return of the nations most versatile older male in Einstein. Surely the return of such classy runners could be counted on to provide stability and familiarity to the frequently chaotic world of racing, right? Well, apparently not. The failure of each to left the upper echelons of several of the divisions of thoroughbred horse racing completely jumbled.

To be fair, Einstein received one of the worst trips in recent memory, and still fought on gamely. Let’s also not forget that he’s probably a slightly better turf runner than he is a dirt runner, so it’s not like the guy was on his preferred surface. While he went down in defeat to the 2008 Preakness runner-up, Macho Again, Einstein still remains the top older horse in the country…although the older male division has seemingly never been as weak and depleted as it is now. 

Think about it, beyond Einstein, who have we?  Well Armed comes to mind, after his multi-million dollar performance this March in the Dubai World Cup.  Can we still list Tiago in that category?  Macho Again certainly deserves some respect now for his performance in the Stephen Foster. Still, if this is the best we’ve got behind Einstein than things are quite desperate indeed.  How much do you want to bet the folks affiliated with the Breeders’ Cup are hoping the Euros can be enticed back across the pond to Santa Anita in substantial numbers this fall?

And it’s not like things are that much better in the older female division.  The only difference is that we’ve got a sure thing runner in Zenyatta that is so indisputably tops in the division (and indeed generally considered tops in all of thoroughbred horse racing in the U.S.) that the division appears healthier than it may really be.  It’s deeper than the older male division, for sure, but awfully top heavy with Zenyatta heads and shoulders above the rest. I’m not even going to type the logical theoretical follow-up to this statement.  I’ll just leave it as “what if?” I think you know where I’m going with this.  If for some reason Zenyatta were not racing, then what? It’s a scary thought.

Then there’s the 3-year-old Triple Crown season. Talk about a lack of clarity!  Much like in 2007, we had 3 different horses win each leg of the Triple Crown, with only Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird finishing in the money in each of the 3 legs.  For my money, that makes him the top 3-year-old male in the nation hands down, with “male” being the operative term.

The top overall 3-year-old in the nation in my mind is irrefutably Rachel Alexandra, the sensational filly who triumphed in the Preakness. Why, you ask?  Well, not only were her runs in the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness examples of sheer brilliance, but she can also boast that she defeated the top male, Mine That Bird, in their only head-to-head match up.  Obviously the final chapter in this story is far from written, and one could easily see Mine That Bird and the rest of the boys getting a shot for revenge later on down the road. Who knows, with the right pace setup anything is possible.  I think we’ve learned the “anything is possible” lesson a million fold this year.

For the moment, however, there is simply no other horse in the nation with such immediately recognizable “star power” as Rachel.  It’ll be interesting to look back 20 years from now and find out what kind of a lasting impact she made on the many young boys and girls whose first memory of horse racing was that special third Saturday in May.  Might they have developed an affinity for the sport all of us have come to know and love?  I’m willing bet the answer will be yes for a good number of folks. Whether they remain fans or not depends on what happens from here on out.  The point is that she’s the kind of horse that can unite folks in a common bond of respect and admiration.  She has the potential to captivate audiences and catapult the sport, even if but for a moment, back to a position of national prominence.

I know the “smart money” says that it’s gambling that brings true “horseplayers” into the game to stay, but my visits to the tracks on major racing days over the years have convinced me that rule only applies to folks who will be wagering significant sums of money on a frequent basis. While that’s certainly important (betting handle being the lifeblood of the sport), it’s not the entire story.  Nor is it a particularly appealing way for the sport to branch out to future generations of fans (“gambling” being associated with a bevy of negative connotations).  There simply has to be something of substance and value besides the betting.  Let’s be honest, quite often an undercard maiden or lower level claiming race is actually a more intriguing “betting race” than the featured graded stakes of the day.

Just as important as the gamblers (and perhaps overlooked for far too long) are the folks who will tune in without wagering and thereby increase tv viewership (thus generating ad revenue, etc.) and the folks who will pay for admission and purchase souvenirs along the way. From being involved in a Rachel Alexandra fan club over on Facebook, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Rachel is EXACTLY the kind of horse with this sort of “crossover appeal” that the sport so desperately needs.

The proof was in the pudding on Preakness day when, despite a drop in actual attendance at Pimlico compared to the year before, the tv ratings and overall handle were up – the latter being especially remarkable given the present economic condition of the country.  Perhaps this has to do with my proximity to Baltimore and Pimlico, but I know that many of the folks I ran into following the Preakness were still buzzing about the filly, and here I’m talking about folks who had until that moment never so much as uttered a word about horse racing one way or the other.

My sense is that the majority of folks realize this, and that this probably fueled the disappointment many expressed when owner Jess Jackson decided to skip the Belmont and instead rest Rachel for her summer/fall campaign ahead.  I found this quite vexing, as I suspect many of the folks vocalizing disappointment at the withholding of Rachel from the race would have been the first to criticize had she run and something gone wrong. Thankfully, most people seemed to understand that the sound decision was to rest her, although it must be said that this decision did have a correspondingly detrimental effect on the overall profitability and marketability of the 2009 Belmont Stakes.  

Without a Triple Crown on the line, the crowd for Belmont 141 was markedly less than had witnessed Big Brown’s attempt at history in 2008.  Betting handle was down as well.  On the plus side, there were no reported plumbing problems this year. Still, the bottom line was that without a marquee runner (no disrespect to Mine That Bird, mind you, he just doesn’t have quite the same “crossover appeal”…although it must be said that Calvin Borel has become something of a household name after doing appearances on Lettermen, etc) the overall day was less than it might have been…at least from NYRA’s perspective.  

Fast forward to today and news that Rachel Alexandra will seek to make amends by traveling to Belmont to compete in the Mother Goose on June 27.  

Isn’t this exactly what we’ve needed?  I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve been suffering from a bit of post Belmontitis lately. You may have noticed this as the volume and frequency of posts has slackened quite a bit. The moment I heard it was confirmed that Rachel was running in the Mother Goose, my mind leaped into “action mode.” Travel arrangements, hotel accommodations – each of these were suddenly immediate priorities.  There’s simply no way I’m missing her in person…especially considering what a wonderful view one can get if they stake out a comfy spot in the paddock prior to the Mother Goose. 

Note: If you happen to be in the area that day, just look for the guy in his early 30′s wearing the crimson Alabama baseball cap with the big cursive “A”…who is no doubt gawking and dripping with excitement (and sweat, depending on the weather) as post time draws near. 

In fact, I’m attempting to organize a Facebook driven “meet up” for her fan club members.  Currently the idea is to meet under the paddock tote board immediately after the 5th race.  I’ll let you know if anything changes, of course.  The 5th race seemed perfect as it gives folks a chance to arrive at their leisure (not everyone being quite the “early birds” that we are), and should still provide ample time to enjoy the later races on the card without missing any of the Pick 4 action. 

Hopefully I’m not alone in this excitement.  I can think of no greater message that we, the fans, could send to horse racing to say “yes, it is about the horses” than to show up in force to welcome Rachel back in her first race since making history in the Preakness. 

I could even care less if she goes off at 1/9 (which she should be, anything else being an overlay). It’s not about the wagering (although, let me be honest…you KNOW I will be wagering). It’s about a chance to witness greatness. One of the few and fleeting opportunities to do so that we are afforded, made all the more important by the instability and lack of truly “great” horses in many of our divisions at the moment.

So with this in mind, I’ve only one question for you all…

Who’s coming with me?

 

 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Einstein, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Rachel Alexandra, Tiago, Z Humor

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing.  On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation. 

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission.  From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast),  major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4:  The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

  • #3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
  • #1A Music Note (2/5*)
  • #1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track.  Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter.  From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry.  That’s real fair.  Thanks.  You know what?  I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done. 

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth?  Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling.  Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee.  The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5  selections.  Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

 

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

  • #2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
  • #11 On the Menu (9/2)
  • #10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race.  As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here.  Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is. 

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly.  She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley.  Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice.  As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field.  With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire.  It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short.  From where I sat it looked  a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley.  She’s my pick of the day.  Lock and load.   Go get ‘em, baby girl! 

 #11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so.  Either one could run big today.  I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed.  This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9:  The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

  • #1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this?  I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes?  Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation.  Nothing is as it seems.  I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time.  While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer. 

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further.  It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance.  He’ll be tough though.  That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him.  He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort.  I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks.  I’ll hop aboard again this weekend. 

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid.  His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner.  Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops.  If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.  

 

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (10/1)
  • #3 Einstein (2/1*)
  • #5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein.  The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface.  I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here. 

He won’t get away with it easy, however.  Two rivals in particular look very intriguing.  Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line.  That’s absolute theft for a  gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January).  I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about.  They’re always fighters.  Plus, look at the connections.  It’s Graham Motion!  One of my favorite trainers.  That’s too much for me.  A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite?  I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay.  Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town.  The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price. 

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET).  He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old.  Enough said.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

  • #4 Aitcho (8/1)
  • #3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
  • #6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.   Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race.  Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone.  This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics.  Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking. 

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level.  Is this an acid test?  Sure.  Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field?  Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at  8/1 he offers value on the tote board.  Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse.  Looks like a fine colt to me. 

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone.  He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away.  But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park.  You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle.  Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there.  I’m just sayin’.  Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend.  Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday.  ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Music Note

Gabby’s Golden Gal’s victory in the Acorn increases the luster of Medaglia d’Oro

7 06 2009

One of the more compelling stories from Belmont weekend that is perhaps lost to a degree amidst the discussion surrounding the upset victory of  the infamous “Other Bird” in Belmont 141 is the continued dominance of 3-year-old daughters of Medaglia d’Oro.  A $5,754,720 lifetime earner and 10-year-old son of El Prado, Medaglia d’Oro was  recently sold by Stonewall Farm Stallions to Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley operation, and is considered one of the hottest sires on the planet.

Consider that in the just the past month we’ve had Payton d’Oro win the Black Eyed Susan (G2), Rachel Alexandra become the first filly champion of the Preakness since Nellie Morse in 1924, and now Gabby’s Golden Gal prevails in the Grade 1 Acorn over Justwhistledixie.  Ironically, ‘Dixie had entered the race thought by many (including me) to be the only semblance of “competition” to Rachel Alexandra in the entire division.  That might still be true at longer distances, but on a track that seemed to be favoring speed throughout the day (with the exception of Summer Bird’s victory in the Belmont), and at the condensed one mile distance, Gabby’s Golden Gal looked much the best.

 

 

And all this from just his first crop of 3-year-old fillies!  Are you kidding me?  This is starting to border on ridiculousness. Toss in C.S. Silk,  Renda, and She’s our Annie, and the feathers in the hat just keep accumulating as these runners keep matriculatin’ down the track.  One thing is for certain, if you haven’t already done so, make sure you are taking note of any Medaglia d’Oro fillies that show up in 3-year-old races.  There must be extra fluoride or something in the water over there at Stonewall Farms as these offspring have been turning up strong! 

Ah yes…fluoridization, just like in Dr. Strangelove, one of my favorite films of all time.  That must be the reason!  I knew the commies had tapped into our water supply, but I had no idea they had plans of affecting our race horses!  We can no longer sit back and allow this impurification of precious bodily fluids to continue!  :-)

“Mandrake, do you know when it was that I first became aware of fluoridization in the precious bodily fluids of Medaglia D’Oro offspring??? “

 

 

On a personal note this only increases my already eager anticipation for the eventual pairing of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.  It’s like all the stars in the world are aligning for them. 

Speaking of Curlin, I’m headed down to Lane’s End at the end of July to check in on him. Lane’s End actually just released an updated video of the big fella set to some…well…I’ll be honest, it’s quite possibly the cheesiest musak I’ve ever heard in my entire life. You might want to turn the volume down and just take him in visually. Trust me on this. You’ll be glad you did so. 

 

 

Looks like our boy is doing well.  He looks absolutely gigantic in those shots, so they must be feeding him well. 

By the way, I believe that’s John Tesh on keyboard in case anyone is curious, which only further cements the “aligning stars” angle for both Curlin and Rachel.  :-)


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Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses.  In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches.  Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.  We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed.  With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided  jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do.  He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a  furlong or so too soon.  It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front.  After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early.  He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go. 

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish.  Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade.  For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire.  You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge. 

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated.  Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff. 

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression.  I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative.  Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1.  It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra. 

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history.   Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions.  Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track.  It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year.  The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner.  Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy.  He’s probably earned  himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover.  Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now?  We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge).  We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill.  We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness.  And now we’ve  had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape.  Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered?  Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint.  If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward. 

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory?  It’s still too early to say for sure.  Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess.  Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer.  Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years. 

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If  the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well.  The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors  to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall. 

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride.  It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold. 

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar. 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

  • #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
  • #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
  • #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
  • #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
  • #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
  • #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
  • #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
  • #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

 

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
  • #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
  • #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

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