The Eye is Mightier Than the Pen

28 07 2009

Edward Bulwer-Lytton authored the famous line “the pen is mightier than the sword” in his 1839 work “Richeliu; or The Conspiracy.”  While his immediate focus was on a now obscure 17th century French Cardinal, he inadvertently provided writers with a powerful quote that could be used to fit any number of circumstances.  Indeed, over the ages this quote has been brandished in attempts to remind nations, states, and other assorted groupings of people that shrewd diplomacy should be a preferred course of action over armed conflict. 

Today we’ll use the quote for a slightly different purpose; that of observing horses prior to a race.  To begin with, we’ll need to adjust the wording a bit.  No longer shall the “pen” remain the dominant feature of the quote.  While we may not have a sword at our immediate disposal, no doubt each handicapper has himself (or herself) a trusted writing utensil with which to document picks, observations, and analysis.  It’s a little exercise we affectionately refer to as “handicapping” which often our own closest friends and immediate family fail to understand. 

In the world of thoroughbred handicapping, the pen and the notations it makes upon a fresh copy of the Daily Racing Form, or “the sheets”, or perhaps even a local track program, go a long way in determining what our final wagers will be at the window.  Many more highly esteemed authors on the subject than I  have noted that handicapping itself is only half the battle – the other half being using those insights to wager properly.  It is my contention, however, based on recent experience, that when all is said and done the eye is the tool we should trust far more than any stroke of the pen. 

Allow me to explain in detail.

How many of us have faced the following experience on numerous occasions?  You stay up late into the evening, slaving over a particularly challenging card.  You take everything into consideration: class hikes and drops, form cycles, fractional times, equipment changes, jockey changes.  If it can be inferred from the data available to you, it is considered and reconsidered in the labor of love that goes into the selection making process.  You jot down your picks, and probably even rank them according to preference.  You might even spend time visualizing your horse and how they will prevail.  With your selections thus confidently made, you journey off into slumberland dreaming of the riches that await a successful day of wagering on the ‘morrow.

Then, as race day approaches, you finally catch a glimpse of the runners you agonized over the night before.  Suddenly the names and form on paper are revealed in their full living embodiment – only something isn’t quite right.  That “sure thing” you were so confident of last night suddenly doesn’t look anywhere near as attractive in the paddock.  His/Her coat is sweaty, or the horse appears to not be enjoying the surroundings.  Even worse, a horse who you thought had absolutely no chance of competing makes an entirely opposite impression and appears to be the standout of the post parade.

What to do?

Call me crazy, but at this point in the process I believe it to be absolutely foolhardy to stick with the “paper” selections and ignore that which your eyes are allowing you to see.  For starters, the information on the paper in front of you can really only lead you to a “guess” or an “approximation” of the horse’s talents and abilities.  It must be remembered, however, that you aren’t wagering on one of the horse’s past performances.  You’re wagering on how they will run TODAY.  While all the work you have done can certainly provide valuable “clues”, they are by no means a foregone conclusion.

And therein lies the proverbial dilemma.  Often we become so wed to our selections, and so paralyzed with fear that if we don’t wager them, we will appear foolish if they wind up defeating our tickets.  If there’s one characterization that is used to define horseplayers more so than any other (beyond being “opinionated”), it’s that we have a propensity to be acutely stubborn in our ways, and totally resistant to change.  We believe our methods to be tried and true.  Our information to be more reliable than the next guy’s, and most importantly, our intuition to be of a higher degree of accuracy than those we are wagering against. 

Another way of looking at this might be to suggest that we are inflicted with the infamous “pride before the fall.”  Not that there’s anything necessarily wrong with being confident in our picks.  Truth be told you probably shouldn’t wager a red cent on anything you believe to be a totally random investment, with no degree of opinion as to it’s prospects for failure or success.  It’s just that one must also be acutely aware of their own fallibility.  As genius as we all believe ourselves to be in the moments leading up to the race, it takes only one false step or bit of bad racing luck to wind up feeling like the court jester, complete with egg on the face and foot in the mouth.  Trust me…Ive been there way too many times for my liking.

The above situation is one that dogs me frequently, and I suspect is an all too common situation that most “public handicappers” face.  It’s tough to make predictions a day in advance and then actually follow them through the next day.  So much changes on the fly.  First, there’s the unavoidable “second guessing” that you will drag yourself through.  “Did I think of everything?”  Then, there’s the changes and scratches that are announced an hour before the first post time.  Often, these adjustments change the entire complexion of a race.  Finally, there’s the post parade itself.  The first opportunity to see the horses in person and allow your eyes to cast judgement.  I don’t have empirical evidence to support this, but I can tell you that it feels like as many as 50% of my “selections” change to some degree (sometimes entirely) based on appearances in the post parade. 

Of the numerous examples that come to mind, the one I often fall back on is the 2007 Belmont Stakes.  Being the self appointed “world’s biggest Curlin fan,” I was very pleased with his appearance in the post parade.  I thought he looked a million bucks, even if somewhat tired in the eyes.  That was to be expected given his grueling series of prep races leading up to his efforts in the Derby and the Preakness.  He appeared to be a lock.  Just then, the cameras went past Rags to Riches.  “My god!” I thought.  I hadn’t considered it was possible for a horse to make a sharper post parade appearance than Curlin, yet somehow this filly looked even more magnificent.  Swallowing a healthy doze of Curlin-infatuated pride, I cleared the 5 feet of distance between our sofa and computer in record time to place a sizeable wager on her.  The rest was history (100 years of Belmont history, to be exact).

Fast forward to our present situation.  If you’ve been following along with the action at Del Mar, than you know that it takes quite a bit of guts to stand behind a favorite thus far at that meet.  We’ve all heard the line that favorites win about 30% of all races. You might be surprised to learn then that through 5 days of racing at Del Mar, post time favorites have only won 5 out of the 47 races run, or roughly 10.6%.  Coincidentally, the average win payout thus far has been roughly $13.96, at odds of roughly 6/1.  Not bad at all for price players.

So what’s that got to do with eyeball handicapping as opposed to conventional paper handicapping?  Well, if you’ve been playing along on “All Access” on TVG, you’ve been able to get a decent look at most of the runners in the fields as they approach the starting gate.  This past Sunday was a perfect lesson in “eyeball handicapping.”  Not a single favorite on the card prevailed.  None.  Notta.  Zilch.  Who did prevail?  Only a steady slew of attractive looking runners at relatively attractive prices, that’s who.

In the opener this Sunday, Box Office Star returned $14.80 at odds of about 6/1.  In my pre-race handicapping, which would’ve been my published picks had I published them, he came up as my 4th choice in the race.  There were simply runners who seemed more interesting on paper.  But in the post parade it was all about Box Office Star.  The same thing happened in the next race with Scorpion Time, who returned a disappointing (for current Del Mar standards) $7.80 to win as second choice at nearly 3/1.   I actually played against that one  despite the fact that he turned up in my “paper” and “eyeball” picks, but I digress.

As the day progressed, Quiet Lightning ($20.20), Millenia ($46.00), Meydan Princess ($17.40), Dewey’s Special ($8.60), Molly McFast ($27.60), Street Royale ($7.80), Unzip Me ($8.40), and Dynamic Range ($9.60) completed the trend of attractive looking horses who made strong impressions in the post parade finding their way to the winner’s circle.  The only horses I didn’t catch in some fashion in this sequence were Meydan Princess and Molly McFast – and namely because I foolishly stuck with my “paper” picks in those races.  Ironically, the only favorite the entire weekend to prevail, Tiny Woods, was arguably the winner who made the weakest post parade impression, if only because his stature reflects his name so well.

By the end of the day I had learned my lesson. In fact, as regular reader Sally Cruikshank from Fun On Mars, Frank Price from RaceHorseDreams , and I celebrated our newly fattened betting accounts following Millenia’s triumph at 22/1 in the 6th race on Sunday, I resolved that never again would I trust the pen over the eye.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still an avid paper handicapper.  Going into a horse race without having done proper handicapping the night before is like going into battle with one boot off.  It’s just that no matter how strong my opinions and beliefs on paper, it seems clear that the secret for success is to be flexible enough to see through the mistaken assumptions of one’s selections as they are confronted with real time information while veiweing the horse in the post parade. 

And let’s be honest – who amongst us claims to be an “expert” at picking horse flesh?  Not I, for sure.  Their are exhaustive works on the subject which should be consulted properly before toying with the idea of even becoming anything close to an expert.  It’s just that the eyes don’t lie.  There is no “darkened form” when viewing a horse in the paddock.  All they see, with a little training,  is truth – and that my friends is what we should be wagering on.  Truth over hype.  The hidden truth in the past performances over the obvious assumptions available to anyone with a program in hand.  The mistakenly overlooked at the window instead of the mistakenly hammered. 

Because when all is said and done, in our old age, who amongst us wouldn’t like to sit back like Robert DeNiro’s Ace Rothstein character at the end of “Casino”:  oversized sunglasses on our face, Daily Racing Form spread out beneath us, noting to ourselves that after all these years, we ”can still pick a winner.”

And with that, I’m off to Kentucky to see Curlin.  Hopefully upon our return we’ll have the honor of walking Rachel Alexandra and the rest of the Haskell Invitational field to the paddock at Monmouth on Sunday.  It all depends on whether we can hold on and win the “Ultimate Rachel Alexandra Fan” contest that Monmouth is hosting over on Facebook.

We’ll see ya when we return.  And don’t worry, we’ll give Curlin everyone’s love and well wishes. 

Here’s hoping we see some of you at the Haskell this weekend.


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Categories : Del Mar, horse racing

Saturday Selections – 7/25/09

24 07 2009

Things are fairly quiet on the graded stakes front this weekend, with the Eddie Read and the Coaching Club American Oaks being the marquee races of the weekend.  In all honesty, a quiet weekend couldn’t come at a better spot for your’s truly, as I attempt to recuperate from the trip to Fair Hill and Delaware Park last Sunday, and look to rest up a bit before our voyage to Kentucky to see Curlin and New Jersey to see Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell looming on the near horizon.

We’ll only be focusing on 3 races this weekend, as we take a cautious approach at wading into the surf and turf waters of Del Mar with the Eddie Read and the Fleet Treat, and look to wrap things up at more familiar stomping grounds at Belmont with the Coaching Club American Oaks.  While we’ll be focusing on the larger races of the day from a stakes perspective, don’t forget about the little guys running in the Claiming Crown races at Canterbury.  Ted Grevelis will be “live blogging” covering the Claiming Crown races over at Owning racehorses.  Do pay him a visit if you get the chance.

 

Belmont Race 9 – The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:17 ET)

  • #1 Livin Lovin (3/1)
  • #2 Wynning Ride (8/1)
  • #7 Hightap (5/1)

The 93rd running of the CCAO lost a bit of potential luster when the connections of Rachel Alexandra decided to instead point towards the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, but all that really means is that we’ve got a more wide open betting affair before us.  In fact, in my opinion it feels like a situation where we can play against the favorite, #8 Funny Moon, quite confidently.

This is because Funny Moon seemingly requires moisture on the track to win.  I’ll be honest and admit I’ve no idea what the forecast for Belmont looks like tomorrow.  If it’s anything like what we’ve experienced the last few days, there has been periods of heavy rain, but ultimately the prospects for Saturday appear quite appealing with lots of sunshine predicted.   That would seem to make Funny Moon a tough selection to support at low odds, given the 3 victories over wet surfaces and the 0 for 2 mark over fast/dry tracks.

Livin Lovin is the horse that intrigues me the most in this field.  The daughter of Birdstone was originally entered in both the Delaware Oaks and the Del Cap last weekend, but scratched from each in order to run here.  That makes me think that trainer Steve Klesaris thinks his runner is sitting on a big one.  While she finished 4th last out in the Acorn over the Belmont surface, it wasn’t all that bad an effort given that she had been off since November.  She achieved a career high Beyer of 91 on a day when Gabby’s Golden Gal absolutely freaked, and the place horse, Justwhistledixie, would likely be heavily favored over this field.  She’s the pick as I’m guessing she’ll enjoy the added distance of the CCOA.  

Bob Baffert would appear to have himself an “x-factor” horse in Wynning Ride.  The daughter of Candy Ride has never been off the synthetics in 5 lifetime efforts, but if her workout on 7/13 at Belmont is any indication (5 furlongs in :59 and change), she ought to handle the surface just fine.  Also note some of the runners in her past performance lines that she’s run into; Laragh, Evita Argentina, Milwaukee Appeal.  Don’t be shocked if she moves forward in her first dirt effort is all I’m saying.

Lastly, I thought you had to keep an eye on Steve Asmussen’s runner Hightap.  The daughter of Tapit looks plenty formidable if you draw a line through her effort in the Honeybee back in March.  Even more appealing is the fact that she defeated Peach Brew last out, and that runner came back a winner last weekend. 

 

Del Mar Race 6 – The Fleet Treat ($100k) – 7 Furlongs (4:35 PT)

  • #4 Dani Reese (5/1)
  • #8 Saucey Evening (5/2*)
  • #6 Ultra Blend (7/2)

We head out west for the 24th running of the Fleet Treat at Del Mar.  First things first, through Thursday, only 2 favorites had proven victorious in the first 18 races run at the meet.  In other words, you probably fared better throwing darts at the wall then you did trying to pick logical winners.  Oh those tricky synthetic surfaces!  Even more perplexing is that the Fleet Treat is run at the always tricky 7 furlong distance.  So what’s a handicapper to do?

While I’d love to pick Saucey Evening here as my top choice, being as that I was able to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stable barn at Fair Hill last weekend and hang out a bit with Cherokee Artist, Icabad Crane, and the beloved Better Talk Now, I was a bit surprised to see the morning line favoritism of 5/2 bestowed upon her.  Especially with Ultra Blend’s slightly more impressive Beyer figures.  I guess that’s what multiple stakes victories will do for a runner like Saucey Evening.  There goes my hope for value.  :-)

With this in mind, I’ve turned my primary attention to the lightly raced Dani Reese.  The daughter of High Demand was only a $14,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, and now she finds herself running in stakes company after two impressive performances at the maiden level and against open company at Hollywood.  We’ll find out what she’s made of this weekend as she gets the proverbial “acid test.”  The odds do feel right though from a risk/reward perspective at 5/1.  It’s also interesting to note that with the scratch of #2 Gold Goddess, Dani Reese is likely to get the lead all to herself.  Can she hold ‘em off in the stretch?  That’ll be the question she’ll have to answer.  Ultra Blend and Saucey Evening should be coming late trying to gun her down at the wire.

Speaking of the scratch of Gold Goddess, do note that this has freed up the services of jockey Joel Rosario.  As I was typing this, information came through on Facebook from a trusted source that Rosario will replace the injured Rafael Bejarano aboard Saucey Evening.

 

Del Mar Race 8 – The Eddie Read Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf (5:35 PT)

  • #1 Monterey Jazz (2/1*)
  • #8 Whatsthescript (3/1)
  • #4 Thorn Song (8/1)

Remember all that talk in the previous race about how favorites were only 2 for 18 through Thursday at Del Mar?  Yeah…looks like I followed my own advice about that tidbit for all of one race, as I’m back squarely on the chalk here for the 36th running of the Eddie Read Handicap.

Here’s the deal. Whatsthescript is a horse that I’ve supported time and again since last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and he just keeps burning me.  Maybe by getting off him today I’ll help him find the winner’s circle?  He’s definitely got the “horse for the course” angle going in his favor with $260,000 in earnings thus far in 2 races over the Del Mar turf.  Further, the Del Mar turf should, at least in theory, prove a bit easier to close into than the Hollywood turf, which was widely considered very speed favoring over the recently concluded spring/summer meet.

It’s just that Monterrey Jazz might be much the better horse now.  Even trainer John Sadler concedes that Whatsthescript might not have been able to catch Monterrey Jazz on his best day in the American Handicap on July 4.  If Monterrey Jazz is allowed to get loose on the lead, this one should become academic.

But, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and the entry of Thorn Song in this race might be just what the doctor ordered for Whatsthescript.  That’s “if” he can keep Monterrey Jazz company on the front and force him to earn it in the stretch.  If he does, suddenly things get much better for the off the pace runners here. 

Ultimately, I didn’t anticipate this opening up for the late closers like Dakota Phone and Global Hunter, but stranger things have certainly happened.  For the Pick 6 and Pick 4 players here, I think you’re probably safe covering Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript, or perhaps taking a stand on one or the other depending on how you feel the pace scenario will play out here in the Eddie Read.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for a safe return for all horses and jockeys.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, horse racing

Rachel Alexandra: “What You Want”

20 07 2009

As many of you know, I’m fond of making “tribute videos”about certain horses or moments in thoroughbred racing that have touched my heart in special ways.  In fact, if you didn’t already know this, it was two tribute videos I made in late 2007 that prompted the launch of The Aspiring Horseplayer site. 

This may sound rather funny given that it’s coming from someone known to be rather long winded with his narratives, but at first I was extremely worried that I would not be able to sufficiently convey the passion and love for horses and horse racing that burned inside my soul through written word only.  Some other medium of communication was necessary.  Something direct, visual, and capable of reaching even the subconscious. 

The answer I settled upon was video. 

Imagine my surprise then, when Monmouth Park announced via their Facebook  page that they were holding an “Ultimate Rachel Alexandra Fan Contest“ to see who could come up with the best Rachel Alexandra themed video! 

Instantly I snapped into motion, searching for photos and editing video clips of her greatest races.  There was simply no way I could  let this opportunity pass without tossing my hat into the proverbial ring!  Not when there’s so much on the line, including a chance to walk Rachel onto the track for the Haskell Invitational (G1) on August 2nd!

This video is my submission to the contest.  The video with the most “likes” over on the Monmouth Park Facebook page wins.  If you’re familiar with Facebook functionality, you’ll instantly understand what I mean when referencing “likes.”  If not, then don’t worry as I realize that not everyone who appreciates the “greatness that is Rachel” is either on Facebook or interested in supporting attempts to win a video tribute contest. 

If, however, you would be so inclined as to help me win this thing, then kindly follow the URL for the Monmouth Park “fan video” section below:

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/video/video.php?v=1192456775247&oid=20125508116

Without further adieu, allow me to present…

“Rachel Alexandra: What You Want” 

 

 

About this video:

The video contains random photos from around the internet that I thought conveyed the qualities of Rachel I/we cherish the most.  Her strength, her beauty, and her commanding presence.  Having had the pleasure on two occasions now to witness her with naked eyes, suffice to say she’s one of the most lovable (and yet intimidating) presences I’ve ever encountered.

Even more magically, she’s somehow managed to accomplish what I assumed nobody on earth would ever be able to do;  she’s helped fill the void in my heart ever since the retirement of Curlin.

The most challenging aspect of creating a such a video, ironically, is finding the right audio to accompany the imagery (and about the imagery: Kudos to the many photographers who have captured her in their images. Unfortunately, most of the images I found were unaccredited, so I know not whom to officially thank for them).  The music must convey something of the mood you wish to portray.  It’s got to contribute to the story you are trying to tell.  What would you want someone who had thus far remained unaware of her existence to see/hear about Rachel?  What lasting impression would you want them to walk away with?  

After hours of searching my iTunes library for the proper selection, I settled upon “What You Want” by the John Butler Trio.  It’s a song with a bit of an “epic” feel to it, and one that  seems to suggest a  reflective response.  Even better, the various tempo changes and instrumental moments create the perfect backdrops over which to replay many of Rachel’s greatest triumphs.

As always, there’s a healthy amount of added subtlety that the viewer may or may not readily discern.  I try to make all my videos like that. Perhaps it’s the Kubrick fan in me?  The subtlety isn’t critical to understanding the central theme (Rachel’s majesty), but hopefully those little touches are appreciated by some.  

Even if the video isn’t as well received as I hope, if it manages to reach  just one person who otherwise would not have cared, then I’ll consider it a resounding success.

Ultimately, I’m elated this contest came around as I’d been putting off making one for her until the end of the year.  If there’s anything I learned from Curlin’s 2008 campaign, it’s that we don’t usually get a happy ending, even to our most cherished stories. 

So, with that in mind, this is for Rachel:  A special horse who has moved me in ways I never imagined I’d be moved again.  I’m not ashamed to admit that she’s the first horse to bring me to “tears of joy” since…well, you know who. 

Go get ‘em Rach! Show them boys in the Haskell what you’re made of, baby girl! With any luck (and a few Facebook votes), I just might be able to send you off to post myself.  Either way, I and countless others will be with you every step of the way.


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Categories : horse racing, Monmouth Park, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra

Saturday Selections – 7/18/09

17 07 2009

Another Saturday is upon us, and you know what that means…time for some weekend warrior picks.  This weekend we’ll weave our way through feature races at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, Belmont Park, Arlington Park, and Hollywood Park.  Then, on Sunday, I’ll be headed out to Delaware Park for a chance to take in the Del Cap live, even if the race is being run sans Rachel.

Delaware Park – Race 7 – The Delaware Oaks (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (3;57 ET)

  • #2 Bon Jovi Girl (3/1)
  • #7 Payton d’Oro (6/1)
  • #3 Livin Lovin (2/1*)

Whoa…we’re half way there.  WHOA whoa, livin’ on a prayer!  (sorry, couldn’t help myself)  :-)

We start things off with the 58th running of the Delaware Oaks.  Everyone loves a good rematch, and for Bon Jovi Girl and Payton d’Oro, this will mark the 3rd consecutive time these fillies have locked horns, with each runner splitting the previous races.  Can anyone say “rubber match?”

Bon Jovi girl has really started to turn things up a notch.  I first noticed this in the post parade of the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico, when I tweeted that she “made quite an impression” in the paddock.  Out on the track she did not disappoint, but was unable to reel in Payton d’Oro.  Note that she was bumped at the start of that race.  She came back to Delaware to crush her rival in the Susan’s Girl, proving for all time that Bon Jovi Girl is a force in stakes races associated with the name “Susan.” She’s got the look of a very tough competitor here, and is the “horse for the course” play with a sensational 4 wins in 6 starts at Delaware (along with a place and a show finish).

Payton d’Oro is a fine filly in her own right, as evidenced by her triumphant march through the maiden, allowance, and stakes levels with 4 consecutive victories.  My guess is that she didn’t like the sloppy track she faced in the Susan’s Girl last out, so with a return to more preferable footing, she ought to be able to improve on that performance. She’s a Medaglia d’Oro filly, so you know you can’t count her out of any fight, and to be honest, 6/1 is not a bad price at all.  She’ll likely be the value play here and at such odds would be well worth a win wager, especially considering Larry Jones is involved.  Is there a better trainer in the nation when it comes to 3-year-old fillies?  Not for my money.

Livin Lovin is the runner to keep an eye on in the paddock.  She’s a Birdstone filly, so we’ll get to see offspring of the two hottest sires this year square off in a relatively evenly matched race.  She was 4th and only two lengths and change behind Gabby’s Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie, two very well regarded fillies who would likely crush this field, in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day.  In other words  it would not be a surprise to see her in the winner’s circle. 

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The Jaipur (G3) – 6 Furlongs – Turf (5:17 ET)

  • #2 True Quality (3/1)
  • #3 Heros Reward (5/2*)
  • #4 Due Date (6/1)

I think it goes without saying that turf sprints are not my strong suit.  With that in mind, I’ve decided that I can’t take the obvious selection and play Heros Reward as my top choice.  It doesn’t mean I won’t have any money on him, as I likely will.  It’s just that my top choices ALWAYS get burned in turf sprints.  It’s like the curse of the Bambino.  The rulers of the heavens must not want me to prevail in contracted grass events.  So what’s a handicapper to do?  Well, when all else fails, look for the speed.

True Quality makes his turf debut in the 26th running of The Jaipur this Saturday.  Usually I’m not one to play first time turfers, and yes, I’ve paid the price at the window on numerous occasions for such hesitancy.  Call me a stubborn old mule, it’s just that I prefer to have some evidence I can bank on in the horse’s previous running lines.  I’m tossing that out the window with True Quality for two primary reasons.  First, the son of Elusive Quality is a proven commodity from a class perspective as evidenced by his Grade 2 victory in the General George Handicap at Laurel Park back in February.  Then, there’s the fact that he appears to be the lone speed of the field, meaning everyone else will have to catch him.

Obviously if someone is going to catch him, the likely candidate is Heros Reward.  The son of Partner’s Hero is the most proven grass commodity in the race and boasts 10 victories over the turf (including a pair of Grade 3 wins).  He’s been knocking heads with some good runners such as Mr. Nightlinger in his previous efforts, and it’s not hard to imagine him turning in a dominating performance on Saturday.  It’s a risky proposition to play against him, and to be honest of the odds stay where they are from the morning line (i.e., only separated by half a point from True Quality), then it won’t make much sense to take a risk in trying to beat him.  The whole key for Heros Reward would appear to be not letting True Quality get too far ahead in the early going.  He’s got to keep it a bit closer than he has in previous races. 

Due Date and Silver Timber both look very usable to me underneath for the exotic wagers.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Virginia Derby (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:59 ET)

  • #9 Battle of Hastings (4/1)
  • #4 Nicanor (7/2)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (8/1)

It’s amazing to me how it’s always the turf races that come up so deep.  In the older male division, we seemingly get some combination of Gio Ponti, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal, not to mention worthy competitors like Better Talk Now, Wesley, and anything the Europeans decide to ship over.  Here we’ve got 10 3-year-old colts in the 12th running of the Virginia Derby, and once again it comes up as the type of race that anyone entered could win.

I settled with Battle of Hastings as top choice for a few reasons.  First, I need to get out of the way that I’m actually a direct descendant of a Norman cavalry commander named “Drago” who fought under William the Conqueror (aka “the Bastard”) at the Battle of Hastings in 1066.  He wound up settling lands in present day Scotland, and I like to think he may have commanded an ancestor of the Wallace clan from Braveheart fame (the Wallace family purportedly being descendants of Norman invaders, according to some sources). Obviously none of that has anything to do with the race at hand, but it’s an angle that is prominent in my mind whenever this guy races, so in the interest of full disclosure, I felt obliged to mention.  As for the horse in question, he strikes me as a very consistent type that you play against at your own peril.

Obviously most of the attention in this race will be focused on Nicanor.  I don’t think I even need to  mention why, but I’ll do so anyways.  He’s the much hyped brother of the beloved Barbaro. While he may have spent his career thus far in Barbaro’s shadow, his last two races have proven he’s something of a talented runner in his own right.  My only fears with him are that he’ll be overbet by virtue of his connections, and he’s been on the lead wiring the field in each of his two wins.  He’ll probably need to show a bit more versatility here, as this field has a good deal of zip signed on.  Everyone will be rooting for him, and if he wins it’ll make for a smashing headline.

Lime Rickey is my longshot play.  Call it a hunch bet, as I know his past performance lines aren’t the most impressive of the field.  It’s just that you’ve got to pay attention to Lemon Drop Kid offspring whenever they are stretching out (in this case to 1 1/4 miles), and you’ve always got to be wary of them suddenly making a fairly large leap forward progression wise as they mature.  Judging from some of his last efforts, he’s been right there.  The morning line of 8/1 is very generous and quite worth a play.

The same can be said for Affirmatif, a horse who has generated a fair amount of buzz in his first 4 races.  Like Lime Rickey, he’s at generous 8/1 odds, not bad for a runner who scored a 100 Beyer figure in his debut race.

 

Arlingont Park – Race 9 – The Arlington Oaks (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (5:03 CT)

  • #1 C S Silk (5/2)
  • #2 Hot Cha Cha (8/5*)
  • #3 Always in My Heart (8/1)

We move to Arlington Park for the 30th running of the Arlington Oaks.  We’re only dealing with a field of 7 runners here, and I thought 4 of them had legitimate shots to wind up in the winner’s circle, including the above mentioned horses and #6 Peach Brew. 

Hot Cha Cha is the top choice, but the odds aren’t very attractive, so I’ll be looking to beat the chalk.  Hot Cha Cha may wind up proving the best, but I didn’t think there was quite enough in the past performances to take such low odds when better value presents itself elsewhere.  Not surprisingly, I wound up on the Medaglia d’Oro runner C S Silk.  C S Silk is rather intriguing as it’s hard to figure out what exactly this horse’s preferred surface is.  I think it’s safe to say it isn’t dirt, so this race over the synthetics could play into her hands.  She’s exiting a last out victory and has fired a bullet drill in the morning of July 9, so I’m going to guess that she’s ready for a prime effort.

Always in My Heart warrants a long look in the post parade as well, as you get the feeling this is a steadily improving daughter of Hennessy.  This will obviously be the toughest field she’s faced, but another move forward is not out of the question.  Likewise, as mentioned before, I think Peach Brew has to be left in the equation.

This may be a small field, but be careful here befor you tee up as this one appears to be more difficult than it may seem on first glance. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 6 - The A Gleam (G2) – 7 Furlongs (3:30 PT)

  • #2 Coco Belle (3/1*)
  • #4 Silver Swallow (6/1)
  • #6 Lady Lumbejack (9/2)

We head out west to Hollywood Park, sadly for what may be one of the final times in the tracks history (apart from a brief 5 week meet later in the year).  The 55th running of the A Gleam denoting a long and storied tradition at Hollywood that in all probability will be run at one of the other California tracks in 2010. 

Coco Belle is the horse to beat here, and will be facing a distance (7 Furlongs) that she is unproven at thus far in her career.  She’ll likely be on the gas early on and will look to wire the field right out of the gate.  The only real threat to her running style should come from the Bob Baffert runner Cry and Catch Me breaking from the 7 hole.  If these two get locked up in a speed duel, it would obviously boost the chances of the off the pace runners. 

If the race does open up, suddenly Silver Swallow and Lady Lumberjack would be prime contenders.  Silver Swallow tends to leave herself a bit more to do in the stretch than Lady Lumberjack does, so take your pick between these runners if you’re trying to beat the lukewarm chalk.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Evita Argentina, who defeated colts in the San Vicente back in February at Santa Anita going 7 furlongs.  Evita is only a 3-year-old, but obviously warrants some consideration as well.  I also wouldn’t count She’s Cheeky out of the mix here, but ultimately had to take a stand against her as you can’t pick every horse in the race. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The Swaps (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

  • #8 Grazen (8/5*)
  • #4 Misremembered (5/1)
  • #7 Quidici Man (20/1)

We finish the day with the feature race from Hollywood, the 36th running of The Swaps.  This race appears to be all about Grazen, the talented 3-year-old son of Benchmark who has posted a pair of triple digit Beyer figures in his last 3 races (along with a respectable 97).  He’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Hollywood and would appear to be the controlling speed of the race on paper.  No doubt he’ll be the key horse of many Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagers on the day.  For me, the important thing here is that he’s still got room for improvement, and has handled in the past the two horses I thought rated the best shots as contenders.

Misremembered faced Grazen last out in the Affirmed Handicap and ran a very game 2nd to Grazen.  Like his rival, there’s also still room for improvement here.  He’ll likely have to hope somebody can wear Grazen down a bit to make him vulnerable in the stretch, but with another move forward anything is possible. 

Quidici Man looks very underrated here to me at 20/1.  I don’t think he’s a serious shot to win this race, but I’d certainly have him covered underneath on the exotics…especially at 20/1.  He’s found a way to hit the board in 9 of 12 lifetime races.  There are obvoiusly several others to consider as well, including Conservative, Advice, and Massone.  In the end though, my hunch was that they’d all be running for place and show.

 

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Nicanor

On to the Haskell! Rachel headed to New Jersey

14 07 2009
Rachel Alexandra heading to post in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park - 6/27/09 
After much deliberation,”team Rachel” has officially announced that the next start for the super-filly Rachel Alexandra will be on August 2, 2009 at Monmouth Park, NJ in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational.  Other races being considered included the Coaching Club American Oaks at Belmont Park, and the “Del Cap” at Delaware Park.  The move signals an end to the mystery surrounding where she would surface next.  Would it be against fillies or colts?  The answer, depending on which 3-year-olds show up for the Haskell, could technically be both.

Looking at the options, my selfish choice would’ve been the Del Cap, if only because the proximity of Delaware Park to my home makes it a very convenient choice of destinations. All things considered though, the Haskell is definitely the right call.

Asmussen and Jackson basically had two choices as I see it, as the Coaching Club American Oaks couldn’t have been a very serious possibility given the likelihood of another drastically reduced field.  There simply aren’t any 3-year-old fillies out there seemingly capable of taking on Rachel at the moment.  That means the next step had to be either proving herself over older fillies and mares (the Del Cap), or going up against the boys again.  They know what they’ve got in this horse and if they have any plans of seriously competing for Horse of the Year honors while skipping the Breeders’ Cup Classic, then they need to win BIG races.  And you KNOW they’ve got such plans.  The Haskell, quite frankly, was the biggest of the options on the table.

One of the more tantalizing aspects of this development to consider is that if Rachel were somehow able to prevail in both the Haskell and the Travers (held August 29 at historic Saratoga), I do believe she’d become the first filly in history to sweep the two races.  But such talk amounts to getting way ahead of ourselves for the moment.  For now Rachel will be squarely focused on the matchup at hand, which should include a showdown with “the other Bird” in Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird. 

A victory by Rachel over Summer Bird and the boys in the Haskell would solidify her credentials as the champion 3-year-old of this year’s Triple Crown crop.  She’d be the only runner amongst the Classic winners to be able to lay claim to victories over the other two.  Stop and think about that for a moment.  Even my beloved Curlin couldn’t say the same following his spectacular 2007 campaign.

In a perfect world, facing older fillies and mares in the Del Cap might’ve made a good deal of practical sense.  Trouble is (for the Del Cap at least), the timing of the Haskell also makes it all the more  attractive.  Being held on August 2nd as opposed to July 19th grants Rachel two full extra weeks of rest and preparation.

As an interesting aside, anyone else find it ironic that both the Del Cap and the Haskell are run on Sundays?  So much for my whole “Take Back Saturday“ idea, huh?  :-)

In other related news, Jess Jackson seems to have purchased himself another Medaglia d’Oro filly for an as yet undisclosed price, acquiring the impressive Dashing Debby following her stakes victory at Calder on the “Summit of Speed” undercard.  While the filly herself has some obvious promise, one can’t help but hope that Curlin develops a little bit of a “thang” for the Medags girls. All in good time, big fella. All in good time.

So with the recent Rachel development in  mind, it looks like we’ll be saddling up to visit Monmouth Park the first weekend in August.  It’s been a long time coming for this visit.  I’ll share with you all that I’m still wrought with guilt for having not been there to support Curlin in one of his defining moments (the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic).  I can’t help but think that on some level, despite having won that Classic, Jackson and Asmussen are itching for some redemption in the Haskell given Curlin’s lackluster performance in that race 2 years ago.  And who knows?  They gave out Bobbleheads of Big Brown at Monmouth this year.  Is there enough time to put together a nifty Rachel themed promotion?  If they do a Rachel bobblehead at some point, they’d better make sure they get that distinctive blaze right! I’d pull out all the stops for this one if I were Monmouth.

A fairly large sized crowd (13,000+) were on hand to see Rachel in what amounted to a “public workout” at Belmont in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park late in June.  Here’s hoping those of us that love this horse can rally and give her as strong a showing of support as she steps into the ring to face the boys again.  Let’s top that number, people.  Hell, let’s “knock it out the park!”  Once again, in true Jerry McGuire style, I’ll ask:

“Who’s coming with me?!?!?!?”

  

 

 

One parting thought: 

As I sit here with the Major League Baseball All-Star Game playing though, I must confess that I’m starting to warm to the notion that we really do need Rachel Alexandra in the Breeders’ Cup.  I know, I know.  I wrote that whole “In Support of Jess Jackson” piece when the news first broke, and I stand bye those words, even if it sparked some disagreement.  It’s not that I’ve changed my mind, necessarily…I guess it’s just finally dawning on me that we are missing out on an “opportunity”, and that you only get so much of that oft-overused o-word in a lifetime’s worth of experiences.  I digress.  

All the more reason to make sure we capitalize on the opportunity at hand to watch Rachel in the Haskell, right?


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The Year of the Filly?

13 07 2009

It’s the Year of the Filly!  We’ve heard that expression repeatedly in recent months.  Perhaps equalled in terms of equine significance by only the Year of the Horse in Chinese Astrology.  The great growing story in racing with each passing week is the tendency to categorize this year as being a defining one for fillies and mares.  It’s not a very difficult conclusion to draw.  All one need do is reflect upon what we’ve witnessed thus far:

The absence of a dominant male champion only further enhances the prestige of the sport’s leading ladies.

But the “Year of the Filly?”

It’s a catchy phrase, I’ll admit that.  It’s just that after thinking the subject over there are a few small issues with that statement.

Firstly, to suggest that 2009 is the “Year of the Filly” would be to put forth the notion that not until this year did we see female runners achieve a level of accomplishment which separates them from both their male counterparts and the female crops of years gone bye.  While this year has been deliciously special, most of the major goals (i.e., the Breeders’ Cup Classic and potentially even the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – more on that in a moment) remain as yet unconquered.  We haven’t yet written the final chapter for the year and won’t do so for many months.  The elephant in the room that continues to dog the movement obviously being the likely absence of a “Thrilla in Manilla” style showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  In other words, there’s plenty of time left on the clock, and this could go still go either way. 

It’s not like last year was a down year for the ladies, either.  The trend of fillies and mares taking center stage began rather ominously when the filly Eight Belles broke down following her valiant effort in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, finishing 2nd behind the gifted Big Brown.  That moment took the wind out of our sails for many months.  It was the great body blow that shook the sport to it’s core.  And because it happened in our marquee moment, it was the “death seen ’round the world.” Much like the ultimately fatal injuring of Barbaro had two years before in the 2006 Preakness.

However, in the wake of that tragedy something beautiful was about to take hold.

The rebirth of the fillies (as well as, coincidentally, the Philadelphia Phillies).

It was around this time that Zenyatta first began gaining national attention as she rattled off graded stakes victory after graded stakes victory.  “Slow Cheetah” made the pulse of racing fans beat ever faster as her absolutely effortless, yet at times seemingly life-or-death late charging finishes became a familiar scene on the Southern California racing circuit…as well as at Oaklawn for a rare trip east and a stroll over a true dirt surface for the only time of her career. 

Then, with the eyes of the world upon her, the sensational filly Zarkava powered away with the 2008 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  A filly in the Arc!  Of course, it must be pointed out that with European horsemen being somewhat more “progressive” that a filly winning the Arc isn’t quite as rare as one may think.  In fact, in the time spanning 1976 to 1983, fillies and mares won 6 out of 8 runnings of the Arc de Triomphe, with only the American born Alleged capable of pulling one (or in his case two in ’77 and ’78) away for the boys.  Overall, 16 fillies or mares have gone on to become Arc champions. 

It would also be folly to overlook  the sensational Goldikova, who ran away with the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  After all, she did beat Kip Deville, Thorn Song, Daytona, What’sthescript, and fellow gal Precious Kitten.  Almost instantly, folks began whispering of Miesque, the filly who won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Miles in 1987 and 1988.  Ironically, Miesque was ridden by Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head.  Speaking of Goldikova, while it was easy to miss this in the states unless you looked, she  recently got back to her winning ways by triumphing in the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) at New Market.  The Breeders’ Cup remains her ultimate target where she’ll look to repeat the back to back victories of Miesque.

These points considered, the appropriate thing to would seem to be to reflect fondly on what appears to be a rather sustained period now spanning two calendar years that has the potential to reach lofty heights.  Imagine, if you will, the possibility of fillies (or mares) winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.  Obviously Zenyatta looms a very large threat for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, especially considering it will be run over familiar stomping grounds.  But what of the Arc?

Enter Sariska.

 

 

The incredible performance by Sariska in the Irish Oaks (Group 1) at The Curragh sets the stage for a showdown with the equally impressive Sea the Stars, who is one of the best horses in the world at the moment.  Judging from what we’ve seen with these two horses, that could be a “battle of the sexes” for the ages.  Sea the Stars might try to sweep the Arc and the Classic all for himself for all we know.  That being said, one gets the feeling watching Sariska pull away there in the final moments of the Irish Oaks that we’ve yet to get to the bottom of this runner.  She’s basically toying with the field as she moves into position.  Granted, those were girls she was running against,  but that was quite the impressive performance to behold.  I’d give this filly a decent shot to win the Arc, although Sea the Stars looms a likely (and worthy) favorite if they were to meet.  In the meantime, Sariska will point to the Yorkshire Oaks next and then perhaps both the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

And then there’s Rachel.  We still don’t know exactly when her next race will be.  According to trainer Steve Asmussen, the Delaware Handicap this Sunday at Delaware Park remains a possibility, although the Coaching Club American Oaks at Belmont and the Haskell at Monmouth Park remain more likely destinations.  Personally, my money is on her turning up in the Haskell as I can’t imagine they’d “rush” her into the Delaware Handicap if they don’t have to, and I can’t imagine who in the world would face her if she entered against 3-year-old fillies again at Belmont.  If she were to defeat Summer Bird in the Haskell, she would be able to lay undisputed claim to the overall 3-year-old crown, having already defeated the Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness.

If Zenyatta comes through with a Classic victory, if Rachel can continue her brilliant 3-year-old campaign and prove herself against older horses, and if Sariska were to stage the upset of Sea the Stas in the Arc, then one would have to concede that the “Year of the Filly” was as true as advertised.  Some combination of those outcomes would go quite a ways to proving so as well.  A strike out of all three, however, and I think 2008 would still be able to stand next to the record of 2009 quite favorably.

But if enough magic exists out there in the night to see all of these possibilities through, then I suppose that would leave us with one other distinct possibility for the fall of 2009.  Get ready, Phillies fans.  If it’s destined to be the “Year of the Filly”, it’s only fitting that the Philadelphia Phillies will repeat as World Champions.


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Categories : Goldikova, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, sariska, sea the stars, Zenyatta

Whirlwind Saturday

11 07 2009

What a Saturday it’s been. It was an odd day, filled with the ups and downs that accompany horseplaying. Things didn’t go particularly well for my top selections in the pre-race handicapping, yet it sill seemed totally enjoyable to play along.  Usually I’m a bit “bummed out” if we’re losing, but today didn’t seem to effect me that much.  Most likely this is attributable to the fact that we did manage to get 5 second choices home (with one technically being a top selection by virtue of a scratch), but I digress.  Let’s look back for a moment on the afternoon that was:

 

 

Early in the afternoon, Game Face got back to her winning ways by taking her first Grade 1 stakes in the Princess Rooney Handicap.  I had mentioned her as a “possible play against” in the pre-race handicapping, but that was when I was focusing on Marina Ballerina, who ultimately scratched.  That left the class of Game Face to deal with what turned out to be a field of pretenders.  She seemingly won for fun and in doing so ads luster to the very strong contingent of female runners in North America at the moment.  I dubbed last year the “year of the filly” with the impressive performances of Zenyatta, Zarkava, and Goldikova (not to mention the Philadelphia “Phillies” becoming World Champions again for the first time since 1980), but this year could still wind up more impressive for the gals when all is said and done. 

 

 

 

Gio Ponti made it a hat trick of Grade 1 victories for the year by outlasting a fairly deep field of contenders in the Man O’ War at Belmont Park. The son of  Tale of the Cat just keeps on going strong, and with 3 Grade 1 turf wins now joins the discussion with Einstein for top male turf horse in the nation.  It’ll be interesting to see what the future plans are for this fall, as Gio Ponti owns a victory (with a 98 Beyer) over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  I’m fairly certain he’ll stick to the grass and point to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but stranger things have happened.

 

 

Heavy 1/9 favorite Benny the Bull was upset in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in the “Summit of Speed” event.  This was one of the races I totally crapped out on, as neither my 2nd or 3rd choice were able to pull the upset.  Instead, longshot Eaton’s Gift stunned everyone by holding off a late run from Benny the Bull in the stretch.  Many (including me) had been anticipating a big run from Benny, but his late punch just didn’t have quite the same “oomph” that we’d seen in previous efforts such as the 2008 True North Handicap on Belmont Stakes day.  To put this in perspective, Eaton’s Gift hadn’t cracked the 82 Beyer level in any of his last 3 efforts, and was running into a perennial 100+ Beyer figure monster in Benny.  None of that mattered in the stretch at Calder.  I guess Benny just can’t catch a break at there, as it was at Calder last year that he was injured and ulimtately sidelined for 11 months.

 

 

Last, but certainly not least, Rail Trip was able to upset the highly acclaimed Parading and the filly Life is Sweet to run away with the TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup.  The son of Jump Start (A.P. Indy) joins the likes of esteemed former champions Seabsicuit, Affirmed, and Cigar as horses who have taken the premier race of the Hollywood Park summer meet.  Who knows for sure if we’ll see another Gold Cup at Hollywood? 

I’ve got to tip my hat here to Superterrifc from Green But Game, who was tweeting  her support of the horse and mentioned that she did the “digital walk of shame” to fire up her betting account with more cash just to bet him.  Nice job, Dana!  No shame in that what-so-ever! Rail Trip sure did look good in the post parade!  Here’s hoping her bank account is now totally “ranch” (it’s an inside joke that she and a few other twitter followers will get…but do expect an occasional and totally gratuitous “ranch” reference in posts going forward).

Getting back to the Gold Cup, I thought Life is Sweet also looked fantastic in the post parade.  It’s nice to see that the filly was running on well for show when seemingly all of the other off-the-pace types and closers were running in place and not really doing much.  My initial thought was that they may have waited a moment too long to ask for Life is Sweet’s run, but I’m not sure it would’ve made a real difference either way considering how smoothly Rail Trip was gliding to the wire.  Still, hats off to the Wygod family for having the courage to race her against the boys.  She proved she could hold her own as the post time favorite, Parading, wound up totally out of the money (and looked rather sweaty and anxious in the post parade).  Little by little you can see that notion that “fillies shouldn’t run against colts” being seriously challenged, and in my mind rightly so. 

In other action throughout the day Just as Well took the Arlington Handicap (G3).  Atomic Rain upset Papa Clem in the Long Branch ($175k), and would appear to be bound for the Haskell next.  Might he run into the super filly Rachel Alexandra if he does?  Only time will tell.  And of course, Giant Oak pulled another “Giant choke” routine as the heavy favorite in the American Derby.

One other race struck me as rather noteworthy today – a race that, as Foolish Pleasure opines, might be somewhat “less heralded” than the above races.  Like an unstoppable rebel force, the procession of winners sired by Medaglia d”Oro continued today with a victory from 2-year-old daughter Dashing Debby in the 34th running of the JJ’s Dream ($100k) at Calder.  We’ve already seen Rachel Alexandra make history with her Preakness victory, which came hot on the heels of fellow Medaglia d’Oro offspring Payton d’Oro winning the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico.  Add to that Gabby’s Golden Gal, C.S. Silk, Renda, and She’s our Annie.  That’s quite an impressive list for a sire who is only this year experiencing his first 3-year-old crop to go to post.

It would appear to be a two horse race between “Medags” (and yes, before anyone corrects me, I’m aware that the “g” is silent in Medaglia d’Oro) and Birdstone for top sire of the year honors. 


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Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Benny the Bull, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Rachel Alexandra

Saturday Selections 7/11/09

10 07 2009

Another weekend is upon us, and you know what that means; it’s time for weekend warrior horseplayers to zero in on the major stakes action occurring across the country.  This Saturday in particular presents a plethora of opportunity, and we’ll be taking a closer look at the happenings at Calder, Belmont, Hollywood, Monmouth, and Arlington in an effort to pluck some winners from out of the air.  The story lines run deep, ranging from another chance to see Benny the Bull, to the return of Papa Clem, and westward journey for Parading, who I was able to get a firsthand look at in the Dixie at Pimlico on Preakness Day.

First, a couple of notes:

  • I’ve got to bid a bit of an emotional farewell to one of this year’s more prominent 3-year-olds in Pioneer of the Nile, who has been retired from racing due to soft-tissue concerns.  I know I wasn’t his biggest fan, but I’m certainly appreciative of the traffic he helped generate for this site.  Would you believe that despite my focus on runners such as Curlin, Zenyatta, and Rachel Alexandra, that the undisputed king of search engine traffic causing people to land on this site was none other than Mr. Pioneer (or misspellings of his name).  Unreal.  He was a blog traffic gold mine – which tells me he must have some seriously devoted fans out there, and my heart goes out to each of them as well.  Of course, I can’t think of him without thinking of Mike from NY – who always pops into my mind when discussing Empire Makers. 

 

  • Secondly, the TBA  homepage has undergone some serious revisions and is now ready to be unveiled to the public.  Some folks spent a good deal of time putting it all together, so if you get a chance swing on over and let us know what you think. 

Now back to the main event… 

Calder Race 8 – The Carry Back (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (3:56 ET)

  • #1 You Luckie Mann (9/5*)
  • #5 Not for Silver (4/1)
  • #2 Ask Joe (4/1)

Technically, the 35th running of The Carry Back is the 2nd leg of the “all stakes pick 4″ sequence at Calder, but I didn’t really have a strong enough opinion of the previous race (The Azalea – G3) to kick things off there.  Plus, we’re covering 7 races here. Just like we can’t bet every horse in each race, there’s simply not enough time in the day to go in depth on EVERY stakes race this weekend.  Back to the race at hand though…

You Luckie Mann simply looks much the best here on paper.  The son of Exchange Rate has yet to finish out of the trifecta in 8 lifetime races, including 4 wins.  He’s also the overwhelming “horse for the course” selection with all of his lifetime victories (4) coming here at Calder.  The price won’t be very appealing, but he might be useful single if you’re playing the exotics.  

Not For Silver looks like the most noteworthy challenger of the field.  Trainer Michael Trombetta is having a sensational year (23%), and this is the runner with the most graded stakes experience in the field.  On the downside, he hasn’t won since rattling off 3 straight victories to begin his career, but he ran into horses like Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can in the last two efforts that would likely destroy this field.

Truest Legend is a rather interesting “x-factor” type of runner in here.  I’m not fond of the odds (3/1), but he certainly looks like he’ll be a pace factor in his return to the dirt.  Ultimately I sided against him and went with Ask Joe for 3rd choice.  It was a tough call, but Ask Joe’s victories at the stakes level on dirt tips the scale in his favor as far as I’m concerned. 

  

Belmont Race 7 – The Man O’ War (Grade 1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (4:12 ET)

  • #7 Midships (3/1)
  • #9 Gio Ponti (5/2*)
  • #8 Dancing Forever (9/2)

Talk about some painful memories.  It’s hard to believe that it was a year ago already that I took the family up to Belmont to watch Curlin in his turf “debut” in last year’s running of the Man O’ War and left with a healthy dose of heartache and pain.  Looking over this year’s edition, I’m struck by the lack of likely pace outside of 3/1 second choice on the morning line, Midships.  If he gets loose on the lead, this could be a gate-to-wire type of race.  However, we are dealing with the turf, so that’s anything but a foregone conclusion.  There are also some “x-factor” type invaders from Europe who could be close up pressing the pace, which might open things up for the closers.

Speaking of closers, we’ve got two good ones here in both Dancing Forever and Gio Ponti, and I think they both make logical contenders in the exotics.  Gio Ponti is a horse that I’ve basically given the Rodney Dangerfield routine to in his last two races (“no respect!”), and he’s burned me both times.  Suffice to say I won’t let that happen again.  I’d prefer a better pace setup for him, but he’s proven to be a very valiant competitor.  You don’t win $1.2 million in 12 lifetime starts by accident. 

Dancing Forever supporters have to look a little bit further back for hist last victory in the Manhattan almost a year ago, and must also overlook two losses to Grand Couturier as well.  It’s a close call between these two for the final selection spot, which seems to be a repetitive theme in many of the races we’re covering this week.  I could also make a bit of a case for Marsh Slide here.  Just be careful here as this looks like a race in which several contenders have fairly decent shots of winding up in the winner’s circle photo.

 

Calder Race 9 – The Princess Rooney Handicap (Grade 1) – 6 Furlongs (4:26 ET)

  • #9 Marina Ballerina (6/1)
  • #6 Game Face (3/1)
  • #4 B.R’s Girl (8/1)

Moving back to Calder, the main story line for the 25th running of the Princess Rooney Handicap is the scratch of Indian Blessing, who evidently was given some antibiotics by trainer Bob Baffert who then decided that she’d likely test positive and be in jeopardy of having a win (should she have prevailed, which would’ve been highly probable) overturned.   Good move on Baffert’s part to sit her down then.  If she’s been fighting an illness, then give her some additional time off.

With the leading lady out of the race, most of the attention will probably focus on Game Face, a multiple graded stakes winner with nearly half a million dollars in lifetime earnings.  I’ll be honest, my gut tells me that while the “real” Game Face of last year would easily handle this field, she’s probably a play against this weekend.  I’m not sure what exactly happened in her last effort at Belmont, but trainer Todd Pletcher has been hard at work trying to get the classy daughter of Menifee back into her usual form.  Given the fact that she’s the likely favorite, I’ll probably try to beat her – but I wouldn’t leave her off the multi-race exotic wagers.  Not with the class she’s previously shown.

Marina Ballerina is the horse that really jumps off the page at me.  She’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Calder, and has 4 wins at the 6 furlong distance.  Even better, her recent form is most encouraging.  There’s just so much to like here, and that recent bullet workout of 4 furlongs in 47 and 3 on July 6 makes me think she’s the one to beat.  Of course, looking over the Daily Racing Form, it appears I’m not alone in that opinion, so don’t expect anything close to the 6/1 she was “blessed” with on the morning line. 

Rounding out the selections, I was hopelessly torn between either B.R’s Girl or Jessica is Back.  Ultimately I sided with B.R’s Girl for now, but that could easily change depending on who makes the stronger appearance in the post parade.  In other words, that last effort for all 3 of my selections in the U Can Do It on 7/13 looks like the key race here to focus on from a past performance standpoint.  They might run back in the same order if Game Face falters.

 

Monmouth Park  Race 9 – The Long Branch ($175k) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:50 ET)

  • #5 Papa Clem (2/1)
  • #2 Atomic Rain (3/1)
  • #3 Despite the Odds (7/2)

I’ll be honest, the entire reason I’m covering this race is because I’m very excited to see Papa Clem get back into the ring.  This was a horse I was very excited about going into the Triple Crown season this year, and while the best he managed to accomplish was 4th in the Kentucky Derby, I’m still left thinking that he might have a decent future ahead of him.  He’s been off since the Preakness, where he disappointed in finishing a distant 6th, but he won’t have to deal with anyone like Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird in this field.  This race appears to setup well for him, and trainer Gary Stute may have found the right spot to get him back to his winning ways like we saw in the Arkansas Derby against Old Fashioned and eventual Belmont champion Summer Bird back in April.

Atomic Rain is another interesting runner, as the pace for this race might setup well for him as well.  It goes without saying that I’ve got something of a soft spot for Smart Strike colts, and he’s certainly working his tail off in preparation for this effort.  I’d give this guy a big shot to steal the race here.  One last factor to keep in mind is that basically all of this horse’s better efforts have come over the main track at Monmouth.  He certainly likes the surroundings here.  Give him a long look in the post parade and consider teeing up if the odds are right.

Looking over the rest of the field, Despite the Odds is a rather aptly named runner, as he’ll likely take a decent amount of action at the windows.  Despite his name (I had to use “despite” somewhere in this text without typing his name), the odds probably won’t be right for a runner that seems to do best when alone on the lead.  He’s also a Speightstown colt, which to me suggests that the distance may be a concern, but he seems game enough to be a logical exotics contender.  It’s kind of hard to be too harsh on a runner that is 3 for 4 lifetime.  I just don’t think he can win this race is all I’m saying.

 

Calder Race 10 – The Smile Sprint Handicap (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (4:55 ET)

  • #4 Benny the Bull (6/5*)
  • #2 How’s Your Halo (4/1)
  • #6 Yesbyjimminy (4/1)

It’s Benny the Bull time!  By far one of my favorite sprinters in the world, the son of Lucky Lionel returns from a game 2nd effort to a very talented Fabulous Strike in the True North Handicap on June 6.  That race was his first in nearly a year following an injury that sidelined him following a victory at Calder last July.  Now he returns to the scene of the crime and looks to get back on the winning path.  The race sets up very well for him, and trainer Rick Dutrow seems to be anticipating a victory for Benny.  Something must be amiss in the world if Dutrow and I see eye-to-eye over something, but that’s definitely what appears to be happening here.  I’m going all in on Benny and will likely single him in the Pick 4 at Calder.

How’s Your Halo makes the most sense to me if you’re trying to upset the heavy favorite.  He’s proven at the distance and fares fairly well over the Calder main track.  Even better, he seems to be in fairly sharp recent form. 

Yesbymimminy needs to find some of that past magic that led to 7 straight victories at one point last year.  It looks like an awkward start doomed him in his last effort, but perhaps with a clean break he can turn the tables on How’s Your Halo? 

 

Arlington Park Race 12 – The Arlington Handicap (Grade 3) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:40 CT)

  • #12 Cosmonaut (3/1)
  • #9 Just as Well (5/1)
  • #2 Public Speaker (20/1

We head to the midwest for the 74th running of the Arlington Handicap, and this one looks like it could be the biggest race of the day (despite the Grade 3 status).  Cosmonaut looks like the class of the field on paper.  The 7 year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid is a runner I’ve been fond of playing over the years, even if the wins have been a bit thin.  He’s been averaging about a victory per year lately, which would suggest he’s already had his moment in the sun this year by virtue of having prevailed at Belmont back in May.  I like that he’s dropping back down to the G3 level, as the upper stakes levels may be just a tad too much for him these days.  All one need to do to appreciate what he’s been up against is look through his recent running lines.  Names like Gio Ponti, Kip Deville, and Thorn Song feature quite prominently.  Needless to say, I feel any of those runners would be logical selections if entered here.  He’ll be involved in the pace, and with the exception of the Mott runner drawn to his immediate outside and the Rebecca Maker runner breaking from the 2 hole, could have things his way.  Look for a big performance on Saturday.

Just as Well is a horse that should be moving well late.  Note that last out in the Dixie he was just behind Parading, a horse we’ll hear more about in the next race we cover at Hollywood. Personally, I thought the Dixie was a fairly stacked race on the Preakness undercard, and Just as Well ran very, shall we say, well.  Man, I obviously need to get a Thesaurus to look for some usable synonyms.  Note that he’s also ran gamely against Kip Deville, and finished ahead of Court Vision in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap back in February.  The son of A.P. Indy looms a very serious threat.

Stream Cat is another horse that makes some sense here, but I had to side against him as I just wasn’t enthralled with his past efforts.  They were okay, but I’m looking elsewhere…which led me to Public Speaker.  The son of Distorted Humor has obviously never faced the level of competition he’ll see today, but I love that he’s 5 for 9 lifetime.  He would’ve had a close 2nd to go along with that but was disqualified and placed 4th two back in the Tin Man here at Arlington.  I’m going to take a shot on this guy’s recent form and expect a minor award here in the Arlington Handicap.  The odds should be worth such a play.  Again, I’m not suggesting he’s a likely win candidate, but he makes plenty of sense underneath. 

 

Hollywood Park Race 8 – The TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (4:30 PT)

  • #5 Parading (4/1)
  • #6 Dakota Phone (6/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)

We wind up the day with the 70th running of the Hollywood Gold Cup.  It’s sort of a somber moment as it appears likely that Hollywood Park’s days are officially numbered now.  I’m not going to spend much time on that except to say that the idea of bulldozing Hollywood and turning it into yet another of the ubiquitous “strip malls” that dot our countryside during this, the “great recession” makes about as much sense as my picks for a maiden level turf sprint race -  in other words, not a whole helluva lot of sense. 

I’m going with Parading here, despite being a lukewarm favorite at 4/1 and doing the east-to-west coast thing that I seldom seem fond of.  Basically it all comes down to how fond I was of the son-of-Pulpit’s effort in the Dixie.  I know, I know…I’m a sucker for horses that I’ve seen in person.  Perhaps it’s the familiarity aspect of it all.  However, even if i disconnect myself from that experience, he still winds up as my top selection.  The obvious “concern” will be how he handles the synthetic surface at Hollywood, but if it’s any indication (and these things are seldom apples-to-apples), he does have an impressive victory at the G2 level at Keeneland. Further, and not to try and stoke the flames of this argument again, but he is a fairly accomplished turf runner.  Just take that into consideration is all I’m saying. 

Dakota Phone and Song of Navarrone were a bit tough to seperate, and to be honest I’ve got them ranked fairly close to one another along with Bullsbay and Rail Trip.  I thought both ‘Dakota and ‘Navarone would be moving well late, and it looks like this race will come down to the final sixteenth or so to decide. 

Regarding Bullsbay – Yes, I picked him as an upset shot in the Stephen Foster and he totally burned me.  Some might not think losing by a length in a quarter was being “burned” – but c’mon…he finished behind Einstein?  How on earth was that even possible given the run that Einy had?  Still, we’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Kevin warns perpetually of the folly of discounting Tiznow offspring at long odds, then he goes and discounts one himself and….voila – huge upset victory.  Just to play it safe, I made him 3rd choice.  I figure that’s a nice way to not totally discount him, but not put all my eggs in the Tiznow basket.  I don’t know….it made sense to me at 10PM Friday night as I wrote this, so work with it people!  :-)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Benny the Bull, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Papa Clem, TBA

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