THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

It’s the Year of the Filly!  We’ve heard that expression repeatedly in recent months.  Perhaps equalled in terms of equine significance by only the Year of the Horse in Chinese Astrology.  The great growing story in racing with each passing week is the tendency to categorize this year as being a defining one for fillies and mares.  It’s not a very difficult conclusion to draw.  All one need do is reflect upon what we’ve witnessed thus far:

• Rachel’s brilliance in wiring the boys in her historic Preakness win.
• Zenyatta remaining undefeated and on the fast track (quite literally) to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
• Evita Argentina and Necessary Evil pulling off less heralded victories over the boys, while Life is Sweet passes most of the field to finish 3rd in the Gold Cup.
• The oh so close photo finish between the filly Milwaukee Appeal and Gallant in the Prince of Wales.

The absence of a dominant male champion only further enhances the prestige of the sport’s leading ladies.

But the “Year of the Filly?”

It’s a catchy phrase, I’ll admit that.  It’s just that after thinking the subject over there are a few small issues with that statement.

Firstly, to suggest that 2009 is the “Year of the Filly” would be to put forth the notion that not until this year did we see female runners achieve a level of accomplishment which separates them from both their male counterparts and the female crops of years gone bye.  While this year has been deliciously special, most of the major goals (i.e., the Breeders’ Cup Classic and potentially even the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – more on that in a moment) remain as yet unconquered.  We haven’t yet written the final chapter for the year and won’t do so for many months.  The elephant in the room that continues to dog the movement obviously being the likely absence of a “Thrilla in Manilla” style showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  In other words, there’s plenty of time left on the clock, and this could go still go either way. 

It’s not like last year was a down year for the ladies, either.  The trend of fillies and mares taking center stage began rather ominously when the filly Eight Belles broke down following her valiant effort in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, finishing 2nd behind the gifted Big Brown.  That moment took the wind out of our sails for many months.  It was the great body blow that shook the sport to it’s core.  And because it happened in our marquee moment, it was the “death seen ’round the world.” Much like the ultimately fatal injuring of Barbaro had two years before in the 2006 Preakness.

However, in the wake of that tragedy something beautiful was about to take hold.

The rebirth of the fillies (as well as, coincidentally, the Philadelphia Phillies).

It was around this time that Zenyatta first began gaining national attention as she rattled off graded stakes victory after graded stakes victory.  “Slow Cheetah” made the pulse of racing fans beat ever faster as her absolutely effortless, yet at times seemingly life-or-death late charging finishes became a familiar scene on the Southern California racing circuit…as well as at Oaklawn for a rare trip east and a stroll over a true dirt surface for the only time of her career. 

Then, with the eyes of the world upon her, the sensational filly Zarkava powered away with the 2008 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  A filly in the Arc!  Of course, it must be pointed out that with European horsemen being somewhat more “progressive” that a filly winning the Arc isn’t quite as rare as one may think.  In fact, in the time spanning 1976 to 1983, fillies and mares won 6 out of 8 runnings of the Arc de Triomphe, with only the American born Alleged capable of pulling one (or in his case two in ’77 and ’78) away for the boys.  Overall, 16 fillies or mares have gone on to become Arc champions. 

It would also be folly to overlook  the sensational Goldikova, who ran away with the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  After all, she did beat Kip Deville, Thorn Song, Daytona, What’sthescript, and fellow gal Precious Kitten.  Almost instantly, folks began whispering of Miesque, the filly who won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Miles in 1987 and 1988.  Ironically, Miesque was ridden by Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head.  Speaking of Goldikova, while it was easy to miss this in the states unless you looked, she  recently got back to her winning ways by triumphing in the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) at New Market.  The Breeders’ Cup remains her ultimate target where she’ll look to repeat the back to back victories of Miesque.

These points considered, the appropriate thing to would seem to be to reflect fondly on what appears to be a rather sustained period now spanning two calendar years that has the potential to reach lofty heights.  Imagine, if you will, the possibility of fillies (or mares) winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.  Obviously Zenyatta looms a very large threat for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, especially considering it will be run over familiar stomping grounds.  But what of the Arc?

Enter Sariska.

The incredible performance by Sariska in the Irish Oaks (Group 1) at The Curragh sets the stage for a showdown with the equally impressive Sea the Stars, who is one of the best horses in the world at the moment.  Judging from what we’ve seen with these two horses, that could be a “battle of the sexes” for the ages.  Sea the Stars might try to sweep the Arc and the Classic all for himself for all we know.  That being said, one gets the feeling watching Sariska pull away there in the final moments of the Irish Oaks that we’ve yet to get to the bottom of this runner.  She’s basically toying with the field as she moves into position.  Granted, those were girls she was running against,  but that was quite the impressive performance to behold.  I’d give this filly a decent shot to win the Arc, although Sea the Stars looms a likely (and worthy) favorite if they were to meet.  In the meantime, Sariska will point to the Yorkshire Oaks next and then perhaps both the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

And then there’s Rachel.  We still don’t know exactly when her next race will be.  According to trainer Steve Asmussen, the Delaware Handicap this Sunday at Delaware Park remains a possibility, although the Coaching Club American Oaks at Belmont and the Haskell at Monmouth Park remain more likely destinations.  Personally, my money is on her turning up in the Haskell as I can’t imagine they’d “rush” her into the Delaware Handicap if they don’t have to, and I can’t imagine who in the world would face her if she entered against 3-year-old fillies again at Belmont.  If she were to defeat Summer Bird in the Haskell, she would be able to lay undisputed claim to the overall 3-year-old crown, having already defeated the Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness.

If Zenyatta comes through with a Classic victory, if Rachel can continue her brilliant 3-year-old campaign and prove herself against older horses, and if Sariska were to stage the upset of Sea the Stas in the Arc, then one would have to concede that the “Year of the Filly” was as true as advertised.  Some combination of those outcomes would go quite a ways to proving so as well.  A strike out of all three, however, and I think 2008 would still be able to stand next to the record of 2009 quite favorably.

But if enough magic exists out there in the night to see all of these possibilities through, then I suppose that would leave us with one other distinct possibility for the fall of 2009.  Get ready, Phillies fans.  If it’s destined to be the “Year of the Filly”, it’s only fitting that the Philadelphia Phillies will repeat as World Champions.