THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Things are fairly quiet on the graded stakes front this weekend, with the Eddie Read and the Coaching Club American Oaks being the marquee races of the weekend.  In all honesty, a quiet weekend couldn’t come at a better spot for your’s truly, as I attempt to recuperate from the trip to Fair Hill and Delaware Park last Sunday, and look to rest up a bit before our voyage to Kentucky to see Curlin and New Jersey to see Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell looming on the near horizon.

We’ll only be focusing on 3 races this weekend, as we take a cautious approach at wading into the surf and turf waters of Del Mar with the Eddie Read and the Fleet Treat, and look to wrap things up at more familiar stomping grounds at Belmont with the Coaching Club American Oaks.  While we’ll be focusing on the larger races of the day from a stakes perspective, don’t forget about the little guys running in the Claiming Crown races at Canterbury.  Ted Grevelis will be “live blogging” covering the Claiming Crown races over at Owning racehorses.  Do pay him a visit if you get the chance.

Belmont Race 9 – The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:17 ET)

• #1 Livin Lovin (3/1)
• #2 Wynning Ride (8/1)
• #7 Hightap (5/1)

The 93rd running of the CCAO lost a bit of potential luster when the connections of Rachel Alexandra decided to instead point towards the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, but all that really means is that we’ve got a more wide open betting affair before us.  In fact, in my opinion it feels like a situation where we can play against the favorite, #8 Funny Moon, quite confidently.

This is because Funny Moon seemingly requires moisture on the track to win.  I’ll be honest and admit I’ve no idea what the forecast for Belmont looks like tomorrow.  If it’s anything like what we’ve experienced the last few days, there has been periods of heavy rain, but ultimately the prospects for Saturday appear quite appealing with lots of sunshine predicted.   That would seem to make Funny Moon a tough selection to support at low odds, given the 3 victories over wet surfaces and the 0 for 2 mark over fast/dry tracks.

Livin Lovin is the horse that intrigues me the most in this field.  The daughter of Birdstone was originally entered in both the Delaware Oaks and the Del Cap last weekend, but scratched from each in order to run here.  That makes me think that trainer Steve Klesaris thinks his runner is sitting on a big one.  While she finished 4th last out in the Acorn over the Belmont surface, it wasn’t all that bad an effort given that she had been off since November.  She achieved a career high Beyer of 91 on a day when Gabby’s Golden Gal absolutely freaked, and the place horse, Justwhistledixie, would likely be heavily favored over this field.  She’s the pick as I’m guessing she’ll enjoy the added distance of the CCOA.  

Bob Baffert would appear to have himself an “x-factor” horse in Wynning Ride.  The daughter of Candy Ride has never been off the synthetics in 5 lifetime efforts, but if her workout on 7/13 at Belmont is any indication (5 furlongs in :59 and change), she ought to handle the surface just fine.  Also note some of the runners in her past performance lines that she’s run into; Laragh, Evita Argentina, Milwaukee Appeal.  Don’t be shocked if she moves forward in her first dirt effort is all I’m saying.

Lastly, I thought you had to keep an eye on Steve Asmussen’s runner Hightap.  The daughter of Tapit looks plenty formidable if you draw a line through her effort in the Honeybee back in March.  Even more appealing is the fact that she defeated Peach Brew last out, and that runner came back a winner last weekend. 

Del Mar Race 6 – The Fleet Treat ($100k) – 7 Furlongs (4:35 PT)

• #4 Dani Reese (5/1)
• #8 Saucey Evening (5/2*)
• #6 Ultra Blend (7/2)

We head out west for the 24th running of the Fleet Treat at Del Mar.  First things first, through Thursday, only 2 favorites had proven victorious in the first 18 races run at the meet.  In other words, you probably fared better throwing darts at the wall then you did trying to pick logical winners.  Oh those tricky synthetic surfaces!  Even more perplexing is that the Fleet Treat is run at the always tricky 7 furlong distance.  So what’s a handicapper to do?

While I’d love to pick Saucey Evening here as my top choice, being as that I was able to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stable barn at Fair Hill last weekend and hang out a bit with Cherokee Artist, Icabad Crane, and the beloved Better Talk Now, I was a bit surprised to see the morning line favoritism of 5/2 bestowed upon her.  Especially with Ultra Blend’s slightly more impressive Beyer figures.  I guess that’s what multiple stakes victories will do for a runner like Saucey Evening.  There goes my hope for value. 

With this in mind, I’ve turned my primary attention to the lightly raced Dani Reese.  The daughter of High Demand was only a $14,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, and now she finds herself running in stakes company after two impressive performances at the maiden level and against open company at Hollywood.  We’ll find out what she’s made of this weekend as she gets the proverbial “acid test.”  The odds do feel right though from a risk/reward perspective at 5/1.  It’s also interesting to note that with the scratch of #2 Gold Goddess, Dani Reese is likely to get the lead all to herself.  Can she hold ‘em off in the stretch?  That’ll be the question she’ll have to answer.  Ultra Blend and Saucey Evening should be coming late trying to gun her down at the wire.

Speaking of the scratch of Gold Goddess, do note that this has freed up the services of jockey Joel Rosario.  As I was typing this, information came through on Facebook from a trusted source that Rosario will replace the injured Rafael Bejarano aboard Saucey Evening.

Del Mar Race 8 – The Eddie Read Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf (5:35 PT)

• #1 Monterey Jazz (2/1*)
• #8 Whatsthescript (3/1)
• #4 Thorn Song (8/1)

Remember all that talk in the previous race about how favorites were only 2 for 18 through Thursday at Del Mar?  Yeah…looks like I followed my own advice about that tidbit for all of one race, as I’m back squarely on the chalk here for the 36th running of the Eddie Read Handicap.

Here’s the deal. Whatsthescript is a horse that I’ve supported time and again since last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and he just keeps burning me.  Maybe by getting off him today I’ll help him find the winner’s circle?  He’s definitely got the “horse for the course” angle going in his favor with $260,000 in earnings thus far in 2 races over the Del Mar turf.  Further, the Del Mar turf should, at least in theory, prove a bit easier to close into than the Hollywood turf, which was widely considered very speed favoring over the recently concluded spring/summer meet.

It’s just that Monterrey Jazz might be much the better horse now.  Even trainer John Sadler concedes that Whatsthescript might not have been able to catch Monterrey Jazz on his best day in the American Handicap on July 4.  If Monterrey Jazz is allowed to get loose on the lead, this one should become academic.

But, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and the entry of Thorn Song in this race might be just what the doctor ordered for Whatsthescript.  That’s “if” he can keep Monterrey Jazz company on the front and force him to earn it in the stretch.  If he does, suddenly things get much better for the off the pace runners here. 

Ultimately, I didn’t anticipate this opening up for the late closers like Dakota Phone and Global Hunter, but stranger things have certainly happened.  For the Pick 6 and Pick 4 players here, I think you’re probably safe covering Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript, or perhaps taking a stand on one or the other depending on how you feel the pace scenario will play out here in the Eddie Read.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for a safe return for all horses and jockeys.