So here we sit as racing fans. Just days before we watched with amazement as super filly Rachel Alexandra once again dominated 3-year-old colts by taking the Haskell in near record time. Just hours from now racing’s other biggest star, the undefeated mare Zenyatta, will likely throttle a field of familiar rivals in Sunday’s running of the Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar. We all know the hot button issue between these two. You can’t get involved in a horse racing discussion for more than 2 minutes before it comes up. Should Rachel and Zenyatta face each other in the Breeders’ Cup Classic?
The obvious answer would seem to be yes. I’ve already gone on record defending the decision of Jess Jackson to avoid running over what he refers to as “plastics” so I won’t go down that road again. Instead, allow me to suggest that we may be getting all worked up over nothing.
Wait? Did I just say NOTHING? Zenyatta against Rachel…nothing???
Yes, as crazy as it sounds, that may be the case. Obviously that warrants some explanation though, as I realize it’s a bit of a buck from the current trend of rational thought.
First, we must ask ourselves “why” it’s so important that these two runners face off in the Classic? Ostensibly it’s to decide the potential “Horse of the Year” honors. I can see the logic in that at first glance, but the fact of the matter is that thus far in the year, Rachel has accomplished infinitely more on the track than Zenyatta. She’s become the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. She’s the 2nd filly in over 40 years to win the Haskell. Moreover, she’s won 7 consecutive races in 2009, compared to just 2 for Zenyatta.
The year is still relatively young, but August is already upon us. It would seem that the only hope for Zenyatta to catch Rachel in the quest for horse of the year would be to defeat her directly in the Classic (or at least one of the Classics, be that the Friday or the Saturday version). From an earnings standpoint, it’s not even close. Rachel added another $700,000 to her totals last weekend, pushing her yearly winnings to over $2.4 million. Zenyatta? Well, let’s just say she’s not even amongst the top 15 US horses.
None of this should be interpreted as a knock against Zenyatta though. It’s not her fault she’s only run in two races thus far, and she took care of business like the champion she is both opportunities she’s been afforded. The only point I’m illustrating is that if “Horse of the Year” is meant to be an honor for the horse who consistently demonstrated greatness throughout the year, and not an honor simply bestowed upon the winner of an individual race, then isn’t this one all but over?
Rachel has been the dominant force in racing, both in name and on the track, all spring and all summer -with no inclination that she’s likely to slow down throughout the fall. Zenyatta, while brilliant, has been largely unheard of. Certainly she’s made no history-defying moves like Rachel’s Preakness and Haskell victories. She can, however, close with a bang by toppling older males in the Classic.
Ironically, the race for Horse of the Year then sets up a bit like an actual race between Zenyatta and Rachel might play out on the track. Rachel’s used her speed, or perhaps her newly perfected (and decidedly deadly) tactical speed to negotiate brilliant positioning early on, and turning for home she’s opened up to a clear lengths lead. It appears she might be waltzing away with another trademark victory. You can almost feel Calvin Borel anticipating the moment to begin an early celebration. But, from the back of the pack, having trailed the field the entire race, suddenly Zenyatta is about to get rolling. The question we’ve all been waiting for is about to be answered…can she catch Rachel in the stretch?
The first step in answering that question will play out this Sunday at Del Mar. “Slow Cheetah” cannot afford a misstep now with Rachel out in front gunning for home. If she’s going to make it happen, she needs to put on one of her patented bewildering late runs, inhaling the competition with seeming ease as she guns for the wire.
Of course, as we all know, we aren’t likely to find out the answer to this question on the track, more’s the pity. Instead, the “race of the year” that was supposed to offer clarity has done nothing but obfuscate an already highly confused picture in horse racing. This has angered many fans of the game, and rightly so. Many feel cheated or slighted, and they are looking for someone to blame, be that Jess Jackson for his refusal to ship Rachel to Santa Anita, the Breeders’ Cup for their questionable awarding of the main event to Santa Anita for two consecutive years, and at times even the connections of Zenyatta for refusing to come east and face “the challenger.” It seems not one of us is safe from what a current and totally unrelated Directv television commercial refers to as “blamestorming.”
Each of these arguments is worthy of discussion and is rightly being played out on many a website, discussion forums, or in the halls of racetracks throughout the land. It’s the main question over on the TVG Community website. Indeed, it is the “great water cooler debate” of the year for racing fans.
But what if we’re missing something?
For starters, I think you know my opinion on this matter. Whenever we reduce a field of talented horses like the Classic(s) to a showdown between two horses, what usually happens? Wasn’t last year, just a week before the race, supposed to be about Big Brown and Curlin? I suspect this year it would result in some “unforseen” scenario where Colonel John, or perhaps European invaders Sea of Stars or Sariska wind up blowing past the two runners we’ve hyped beyond belief in the stretch. Suddenly our calls for a showdown would seem trivial.
It’s more than that though. Over and over again I hear the same argument, and I admit that it’s one I at first subscribed to. We all know that racing isn’t exactly in it’s “glory days.” We’re largely ignored on the public radar. The only times we get any national recognition are the 2 minutes known otherwise as the Kentucky Derby, and depending on what happens in that race, to a lesser extent the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in the following weeks – even more so if a Triple Crown becomes a possibility.
The argument, therefore, is that a “super showdown” between the undefeated Zenyatta and the immensely popular Rachel Alexandra is EXACTLY what the sport needs to help generate public interest. A “thrilla in Manilla” style battle for the ages. We were teased with the prospect of such a matchup last year between Big Brown and Curlin, and it never came to fruition. Thus, fans this year are frothing at the mouth for such a showdown not to be missed this time around. It would seem hard to argue with such logic. This might be our chance to put racing back on the map, right? Why relegate ourselves to continued obscurity when there’s a chance to become relevant again on the national scene, even if only for a fleeting moment?
Here’s why.
During the Haskell coverage on TVG, analyst Todd Schrupp made a comment that I think bears repeating. These weren’t his exact words, so forgive me for twisting things a bit. I don’t have the benefit of transcripts at my disposal to double check. While he wasn’t speaking directly about Rachel and Zenyatta, the essence of his comment might be interpreted as follows:
If a horse like Rachel Alexandra wins Horse of the Year honors, it’s front page news everywhere.
If a horse like Zenyatta wins Horse of the Year honors, it’s front page news on the Daily Racing Form.
Think about that for a moment.
I’m not suggesting that this should be an excuse to avoid such a showdown. Far from it. I think the important thing to keep in mind is that, in terms of general public opinion, it doesn’t really matter who Rachel faces or where she does. As long as we hype the race and make it accessible we can gain that public relevance we so desperately seek. The key factor is simply Rachel. Think of the millions of viewers who turned in to watch the Preakness this year. For many, it may have been the first horse race they’ve ever seen. To many more it was probably the first race they’d watched in countless years. Why? Because suddenly they had a reason to care, and the race was accessible (imagine that – a compelling and accessible story attracted viewers. Wow, who would’ve thought such a thing was possible?)
Also consider the person sitting next to you at work. Most likely they aren’t a horse racing fan. If they are, then think of the person on the other side of you. They’ve probably at least heard of Rachel Alexandra. If they haven’t, then a quick reference to the “filly who won the Preakness” or the “horse that was on the cover of Vogue magazine” usually reminds them enough to say “oh yeah, I remember her!” Mention Zenyatta, however, and you’re likely to be met with a blank stare. “Zen-who? Oh, you mean the album by The Police, right? Yeah, they rule.” Or even worse “is that some sort of eastern philosophy or something?“
That’s what we’re dealing with here, folks. Rachel Alexandra, quite frankly, is bigger than the game itself. I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but given our current state of affairs, I’d say we ought to be thankful for any horse who is capable of transcending the normal boundaries of awareness concerning our beloved sport. Zenyatta, while beloved to most racing fans, simply doesn’t capture the public’s attention. Part of that is our fault, of course. I believe the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic was the only (or at least one of the very few) times she was ever on a national telecast, which really makes you wonder why we spend so much time hyping relatively insignificant Derby prep races in the early spring?
It is my contention that all one needs to garner public attention is a well marketed, well hyped race featuring Rachel Alexandra. Note that we pretty much blew that opportunity by missing a chance to televise the Haskell nationally last week. Seriously…I like the Arlington Million as much as the next racing fan, but Gio Ponti and Presious Passion will be beamed into millions of more households this Saturday than Rachel was in making history last weekend? Nobody else sees a problem with that?
If the bottom line is that we crave the national spotlight and the attention that comes with it, then we’ve already got all we need. Just march Rachel out to the Travers in a few weeks and hype the fact that she’d be the first filly since 1915 to win the race. As long as it’s available to folks on tv:
“People will come, Ray….people will most definitely come.”
Of course, the real losers in the Rachel vs Zenyatta saga are the true fans of the game. We’re the ones who take the proverbial shaft, at least on the surface (no pun intended towards the dirt/synthetic controversy). A glass half full approach might be to suggest that we get to watch twice as many meaningful races as long as Rachel and Zenyatta stay apart, but the purist fire that burns in all of our hearts does long for some sense of closure. For us, the fans, I do hope we eventually see what we long for, although I’ll continue to refrain from demanding it happen at a specific time or location.
For the sake of the sport though, and as tough as it is to say this, I think we have to realize that in the grand scheme of things Zenyatta doesn’t really matter. I know…It hurts me to even type that as I’ve loved this mare since she debuted and have cheered along for each of her races in her stellar career. It’s not her fault she’s not as a big a star as she could be, nor do I fault her connections for plotting what has thus far been a spotless career (kind of hard to argue with an unbeaten mark and a horse that has remained sound through all of it). It’s just the way things are in our game. It’s the nature of the beast. In fact, even if she had taken on older boys already out west, she’d doubtless still be second fiddle to Rachel in terms of national recognition from the general public.
Curlin fans like me had to deal with this a bit even after our big red hero won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2007. The fact of the matter was that Street Sense was still the bigger househould name. Why? Because he won the Kentucky Derby. I suspect it would be much the same even if Zenyatta were to face and defeat Rachel in the Classic. Would we have our clarity? You betcha…at least to a degree (there’d always be the “surface excuse” to fall back on). Rachel would still be the star though. She’s simply captured too many hearts for that to change.
In the end though, I fear we’re making a mountain out of a molehill. Rachel and Zenyatta would be huge for the fans, but no more huge for the sport than Rachel against anyone else would be – provided we got our act together and ensured it was accessible to anyone with a television and then marketed the heck out of the event. Hey, maybe we could use some of those mythical marketing dollars we were all told that running the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita in consecutive years would provide the sport? The point is, such a matchup would only be a “thrilla in Manilla” for those of us fans who will likely already be watching anyway. For the public it would be “just some race” that featured Rachel. In other words, no more or less marketable than the Haskell last weekend, or the Travers/Woodward/Alabama options coming up later this month.
In fact, you could argue that it would be decidedly EASIER to market the Travers/Woodward/Alabama races as we won’t have to go head to head with the kickoff of the College Football season.
As for the prospects of a Breeders’ Cup without Rachel? I thought Jennie Reese summed it up rather nicely. “Celebrate the horses who show up, and don’t sweat those that don’t.”
After all, do we really want to work ourselves up into knots fighting amongst each other over who to blame only to have a dark horse we totally overlooked come in and steal the show? If we ever want to get things right in this sport, we need to work on the little things first. Our biggest star (Rachel) making history in the Haskell while not available to most of the nation is indicative of why we have such problems. Maybe the powers that be will learn their lesson when our top draw is held out of the Breeders’ Cup this year? Probably not, but hopefully it’s a shot across the bow. It’s just a shame that the fans are the ones who have to pay the ultimate price. That’s nothing new though. We’re used to it. We’ve been taking it on the chin for years!
For now, we’ll have to keep running this race over and over in our heads…or perhaps start wagering on who might win Horse of the Year credentials, as that appears to be the true “race of the year.” I’d say it’s about 9/5 at the moment on Rachel…but watch out for Zenyatta coming late on a wide sweeping move in the stretch. 
And, there ya have it—fantastic job, Kevin. As I say on page 18 of Handicapping the Wall Street Way, “America wants a hero, whether it is a man, woman, or horse” That was true well before Smarty Jones in 2004 and will be true long after Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
You say, “As long as we hype the race and make it accessible we can gain that public relevance we so desperately seek. The key factor is simply Rachel. Think of the millions of viewers who turned in to watch the Preakness this year. For many, it may have been the first horse race they’ve ever seen. To many more it was probably the first race they’d watched in countless years. Why? Because suddenly they had a reason to care, and the race was accessible (imagine that – a compelling and accessible story attracted viewers.”
You hit the nail right on the head.
Mark Ripple, Author
Handicapping the Wall Street Way
At the ‘SPA’ look for LEZCANO and JULIEN-the-LEP ro remain en
fuego – JULIEN especially in turf races. GOOD BETS ON BOTH JOCKS.
Kevin,
Bravo. Well said, or written in this case.
I do have a slightly different take regarding the marketing angle for Rachel. It is a gender match play. Think about it. No matter your political persuasion, why was Sarah Palin so interesting? She was a major player in the world of the “good ‘ol boy” political world. Not because she was a masterful political candidate, or that she charmed the masses, it was that she was a woman giving the boys a run for their money. The ‘ol Billy Jean King and Bobby Riggs tennis match saga (by the way most people don’t even remember his name).
The world has supposedly progressed and we have come along way since the much hyped tennis match years ago; but there is still that desire in the female psyche and within a man’s ego that we relish the clash of genders and for the battle of the sexes.
That’s how this needs to be played. Forget about the Zenyatta/Rachel conquest. Let’s market this lady, Rachel, as the Wonder Woman that she truly has become. I can already hear the “Rocky” movie theme in my head. Take no prisoners. Rachel will conquer and destroy any colt that challenges her. She can stir the masses and make her mark on history, while shining a much needed spotlight on the horse racing business and excite new fans (men and women) to the game.
That’s my take and I would write more but I must go….my wife is calling me and she wants me to fix dinner!
Thoughtful post, as always.
One epic duel (btw, what ever happened to match races?) isn’t gonna save racing, but it could be breaking bad habits in the same way Rachel’s Preakness and Haskell wins are likely to inspire other connections not to hide their outstanding fillies from open competition. Racing is a more attractive sport for that.
“As long as we hype the race and make it accessible we can gain that public relevance” – far from it. You can’t fake excitement in the long run, there are too many people who will recognize that there’s nothing to get excited about. Racing fans aren’t a cult where everybody will just pretend the emperor isn’t naked.
Marketing can do a lot for you, but to gain relevance in the long run racing will have to – gasp! – not pretend it’s interesting, but actually put up an interesting product.
@Mark Ripple – Thanks a million. I was worried that my first reply would be something to the effect of “have you lost your mind?” Very comforting to know that wasn’t the case. Also wanted to thank you for tweeting this post – I just noticed that over on Twitter.
@Zyskander – thanks for the tips, amigo. Can you believe we’re already about 1/4 of the way through Saratoga? It just got here! I’ll have to check out “the Lep” on grass. You know from countless readings here that I’m not a very astute turf handicapper (especially in turf sprints).
@Frank Price – You MUST post about that! Just reading your comment got me all pumped up and ready to rock. I can hear the Rocky music pumping as well….although in my imagination it’s more along the lines of “eye of the tiger, it’s the thrill of the fight, rising up to the challenge of our rivals…and the last known survivor stalks his way through the night, AND (SHE”S) WATCHING US ALL IN THE EYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEE……of the tiger).
And of course, that music is playing as we all watch you prepare dinner in 80′s movie montage fashion.
@Malcer – Solid points (as usual). Totally agree that hopefully more fillies aren’t hidden from inter-sex competition. About the emperor wearing no clothes (wonderful analogy, by the way) – I’m not so sure. Usually I’d say yes – but Rachel’s star power is such that to the ‘outsiders” (non racing fans who are interested in Rachel), they really don’t understand the context of what they are seeing anyway. Case in point – the thousands who packed Belmont to see the Mother Goose. My point being that to the average person, Rachel vs Zenyatta means no more than Rachel vs any other horse. Although you have another solid point about how that can’t/won’t last forever…and you’re probably right that eventually interest would start to lesson.
For now though? I have a feeling we could line her up in the gates against a field of Jack Russell Terriers and people would still flock to the track to see her and would likely watch along – at least for a moment.
Part of the whole “hype” thing is that we don’t do a good job of telling our own story. If we just say “Rachel is headed to the Travers”, or “Rachel’s running in the Haskell” – most folks won’t understand what’s important about that or why it matters at all without a little hype from our friends.
At this point I don’t care who Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta run against as long as they run. They both give you chills when you watch them!
Dear FRANK P. + others: The reason SARAH PALIN was so-o-o interestin’ to some – was that she was not an IVY LEAGUER like so many of the sh^ts in governance these days!!
@Brian – Truth be told, I meant to do a post-Zenyatta-victory post, but by the time I got around to it, the news was old and stale. Plus I was exhausted.
Zenyatta’s win was “sneaky good” – what I mean by that is that her final fractions were very good all things considered, and just watching her motion visually, she was really moving late. She’s got that unbeatable fire in her…kind of reminds me of Tiznow in a weird way. If I didn’t know better, I’d think she was a Tiznow mare.
@Keith – I suspect the same. ALthough on synthetics and given the age difference, I wouldn’t feel comfortable singling Rachel over Z. I’d have to cover ‘em both.
Why the debate? They were suppose to meet at the Breeders but Rachel’s ducking it. Right? Oh yeah, JJ don’t like the poly but he has no problem running Curlin in that gawdawful dangerous slopcrap Monmouth in 2007. Please. Any horse player worth his salt knows that Curlin was on the downswing last year and his loss in the 2008 Breeders was not about the track. The only reason Rachel is not showing up for the Breeders is ZENYATTA!
Well Jim,
I guess you missed where Zenyatta’s trainer said that he isn’t fond of synthetic surfaces either, and that they are detrimental to the development of a thoroughbred.
Also, how on earth could you watch this filly run (Rachel) and think that they’d be ducking any horse in the world…especially Zenyatta, who has looked a bit vulnerable in her last two starts (though for the record, I give her exemptions by virtue of the weight she carried two back, and her fast final fractions last out).
It’s quite simple to me…one horse has been destroying runners OUTSIDE of her division, another isn’t even ranked in the top 18 earners for the year – still.
Anyhow, you seem to have missed the point of the post. Any racing fan “worth their salt” knows that Rachel has infinitely more “star power” and appeal to the general public than Zenyatta does.
Just take a look at the Preakness results. TV viewership up 30%? Betting handle that day up (despite the recession)? Heck, that single day boosted Pimlico’s earnings for the meet to a better figure than last year – and remember that their attendance was down drastically by virtue of cleaning out the infield of the typical 50,000 college drunks.
Quite remarkable.
I know Zenyatta is the California favorite, but outside of her state (and outside of diehard racing fans), she simply doesn’t compare in terms of name recognition.
If she wins the Classic (the Saturday version, that is), that could change.
Ok ok the only answer would be for Zenyatta and Rachel to meet in the filly mare feature at BC on Friday. That way, it’s like a match race and they don’t have to worry about a synthetic track horse stealing the race. Think about that!! The synthetic track surface thing has been a disaster out here in California. Bay Meadows had to close, and Santa Anita is in trouble. I hate the stuff (unless it’s proven to save horses) after being at last years BC. “I’ll be back” there, as Arnie says though because it’s close and I get to do some music in So Cal. I’ll take any suggestions on how to handicap on that (explitive) surface. Speed only, or how about “Euro friendly” only!!??? HAH, maybe that’s a new handicapping term? How about “Turf Footlike”?
Well Kevin,
I guess you can’t read. Maybe I can spell it for you.
R-A-C-H-E-L I-S N-O-T G-O-I-N-G T-O T-H-E B-R-E-E-D-E-R-S.
What part of that you don’t understand. Missing the Breeder meant NO CHANCE OF RACING ZENYATTA. THAT IS DUCKING whether you like it or not.
END of STORY.
@roblejeune – Good to see you again! Hope all has been going well for you. Looking at Del Mar right now, it’s all about how speed is doing, as it can change from day to day.
@JIm – sorry, can’t understand you. You know…that whole can’t read thing.
I am pretty sure if Zenyatta wins HOTY it will be front page everywhere in the Western World.