THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

After an exciting week that included an opportunity to feature a new guest writer break his blogging maiden successfully with California Flag on Wednesday in the Green Flag Handicap, we return this weekend with Saturday Selections for the major races at Monmouth Park, Laurel Park, Saratoga, and Del Mar. 

Obviously the big news of the weekend is the possibility that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could meet in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park on October 3, with TVG-Betfair upping the stakes by $400k and promising a $1 million total purse if both super horses wind up competing.  It’s probably still unlikely this will happen as we all want, but If nothing else it feels the closest we’ve been all year to the much anticipated and hoped for matchup.  Only time will tell if it comes to fruition. 

For now though, we’ll focus on the runners who are definitely racing (late scratches obviously exempted from that statement) this weekend.

Monmouth Park – Race 9 – The Phillip H. Iselin (Grade 3) – 1 1/8 Miles

• #5 Coal Play (2/1*)
• #4 You and I Forever (6/1)
• #3 Solar Flare (3/1)

We kick things off with the 75th running of the Phillip Iselin at Monmouth Park.  The entire field is filled with “older” horses (over 3-years-old), and some familiar names dot the list including Coal Play, Solar Flare, Chirac and Researcher.

Coal Play is the obvious “horse for the course” selection by virtue of his 3 wins in 5 starts over the Monmouth dirt, as well as place and show finishes.  He’s got the speed to really take it to this grouping provided he gets a good trip.   No doubt he’ll be hammered at the betting windows, so if you’re looking for a price you won’t be happy.

The rest of the field appears relatively evenly matched on paper, but two horses jump out to me; You and I Forever and Solar Flare.  If you can forgive the last our performance against weaker competition over the slop at Churchill, You and I Forever has some sneaky class to consider.   If you’re a Beyer Speed Figure player, note that he posted a 104 mark at this distance last summer at Saratoga.  That being said, he is winless at 4 tries going a mile and an eighth.  Still, I give him a big chance to hit the board here.

Solar Flare has the always dangerous Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combination working in his favor (26% in the last year).  Like the favorite, who he’s chased before, he seems to enjoy the surface at Monmouth.  I prefer his recent form over that of other contenders like Researcher and Chirac.

I’ll play the heavy favorite on top with Solar Flare and You and I Forever underneath in the exacta.  For the trifecta, you can add in Researcher, Chirac, and Actin Good to the bottom of the ticket.

• $1 Exacta: 5/3,4 ($2)
• $1 Trifecta: 5/3,4/ 1,2,3,4,7 ($8)

Laurel Park – Race 9 – The  Pearl  Necklace ($50k) – 1 1/16 Miles – Turf

• #9 Blind Date (7/5*)
• #7 Ravenous (5/2)
• #2 Hogan Beach (8/1)

Saturday’s running of the Pearl Necklace at Laurel Park for Maryland bred 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles over the turf appears to be a two horse race on paper.

Hamilton Smith sends out Blind Date who will be looking for her 5th victory in her last 6 starts.  The daughter of Not For Love (Mr. Prospector) towers over the competition from a class perspective by virtue of being the only stakes winner in the field (and in her case, a multiple stakes winner, including the Grade 3 Virginia Oaks).

To win, she’ll need to chase down the speedy Ravenous from trainer Richard Small’s barn. The daughter of Bowman’s Band would appear to be the likely pace setter, and while she’s bound to get her stiffest test yet has shown the ability to wire the field at this distance.

I’ll play the class of Blind Date on top with the speedy Ravenous underneath. To round out the trifecta, I’d consider using both #2 Hogan’s Beach and #1 Southern Charmer, who could both be moving well late.

• $1 Exacta: (Box) 7,9 ($2)
• $1 Trifecta: 9/7/1,2 ($2)

Saratoga – Race 10 – The Alabama (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles

• #8 Milwaukee Appeal (9/2)
• #3 Funny Moon (4/1)
• #5 Careless Jewel (5/2*)

We move to the hallowed grounds of Saratoga for the 129th running of the Alabama, a race that has a bit of extra meaning for being as that I’m a native son of the land of the Crimson Tide.  You know one thing about us Alabamians – having been spoiled with the greatness of Bear Bryant, we like winners…and consistency.

If we were going to go just on straight winning consistency, we’d be winding up with the chalk, Careless Jewel as our top selection.  Obviously the daughter of Tapit has been a model of consistency winning three straight races since her debut, largely in speedy gate-to-wire fashion, including a smashing domination of the Delaware Oaks last out on July 18.  Two things stack up against her here today, however; class and distance.  She’s thus far unproven going the 1 1/4 mile distance, and clearly, despite being a certified Grade 2 winner, she’s never faced quite as tough a field as this.

For those reason, and in an effort to try and beat the chalk with at least one of these picks, I’m turning my attention to the Canadian bred filly Milwaukee Appeal.  I actually liked this filly against the Canadian boys in the Princes of Wales and the Queens Plate, and she ran very respectably in each race.  I’m hoping her odds hold close to the morning line of 9/2, as she offers real value at that price, but I suspect they’ll come down just a bit once wagering opens.  She ran her heart out in the Prince of Wales, which tells me she’s versatile enough to handle the dirt just fine.  Her Beyer figures might not be sexy, but she’s a tough cookie in the stretch. 

Funny Moon also warrants a good deal of respect.  Remember that consistency angle I mentioned earlier? Well, it’s hard to be more consistent than jockey Alan Garcia has been so far at the Saratoga meet.  He’s managed to really shine in an incredibly tough jockey colony at Saratoga and gives his horses a big shot in seemingly every race. 

This is a very deep field, so it’s not like the other horses I haven’t mentioned don’t have solid chances as well.  I could make a case for just about anyone, but would definitely think about including Don’t Forget Gil and Casanova Move on the exotics. 

This ought to be a good one, arguably the “race of the day.”

• $1 Exacta: 3,8/ 3,5,8 ($4)
• $1 Trifecta: 3,8/3,5,8/3,4,5,7,8 ($12)

Del Mar – Race 8 – The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

• #5 Well Monied (5/2*)
• #8 Hameildaeme (12/1)
• #9 Lexlenos (8/1)

The 53rd running of the Del Mar Oaks would seem to be all about Well Monied, the impressive daughter of Maria’s Mon (Wavering Monarch) who has run big at both the Grade 2 and Grade 1 level in recent efforts and owns a perfect 2 for 2 record at the 1 1/8 mile distance.  Taking her on will be two stakes winners in Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks.  While I like the favorite here on top, I’m looking for value underneath. Well Monied will be a force if she runs her patented race – that much is certain.  I’m not sure if any of the horses in this field can beat her without a bit of racing luck, but there could definitely be some shots that hit the board underneath her.

That being said, do be a bit careful in banking too heavily on Well Monied, as jockey Joel Rosario, despite having a sensational Del Mar meet, has had some trouble getting wins over the turf.  If she falters, which is definitely possible, then we’d probably see a price explosion on the tote. The only trouble is that chalk has been exceptionally tough to defeat at Del Mar so far this week.  Thursday was a veritable chalk-fest, and as of this writing, the Friday card seems to be much the same.

Hameildaeme is a runner who seems to be slowly putting it all together.  If you read Jay Hovdey’s excellently insightful article in the Saturday edition of the Daily Racing Form, you know that her connections feel she may be a good one…if they can get her into the gate without losing her mind.  I went back and looked at her effort in the San Clemente against Starlarks and Strawberry Tart and saw enough to give her a shot here to turn the tables on them with a better overall trip. 

Lexlenos has run into Well Monied in consecutive races, as well as the very sharp Gozzip Girl, who is probably a shade better right now than Well Monied as far as 3-year-old turf fillies are concerned (as evidenced by Gozzip Girl’s 3 1/4 length victory over Well Monied in the Grade 1 American Oaks).  If those fillies are among the best of the 3-year-old turfers, than Lexlenos has to be respected as an exacta/trifecta consideration by virtue of her 3rd place finishes in the last two efforts.

This might be a race to go a bit deep underneath, for as mentioned earlier, it’s filled with horses who have a shot.  I’ll add in Internallyflawless, Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks to the equation underneath.

• $1 Exacta: 5/ 8,9 ($2)
• $1 Trifecta: 5/ 8,9/ 1,6,7,8,9 ($8)

Best of luck to everyone and happy Saturday betting!