THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

This weekend kicks off an action packed, star studded 48 hours of thoroughbred racing action, capped off by the running of the world’s premier turf race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  If the weather holds up well enough, European phenom SEA THE STARS is set to go to post as the heavy Arc favorite.  Not to be entirely outdone, the U.S. has it’s own prestigious races to offer to the gods of weekend racing as the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup highlights a remarkable Saturday card at Belmont Park.

(NOTE: If interested, you can read my latest thoughts on the weekend races with Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic implications – namely the Beldame, the Fitz Dixon Cotillion, and the Cal Cup Classic in my most recent offering on the NTRA website.)

10/4 – Longchamp (France) – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

We’ll do things backwards here from a chronological perspective as obviously the Arc is the big story this weekend and rightfully deserves the most attention.  Roughly $5.84 million in purse money is on the line when the horses go to post this Sunday.  Epsom Derby winner SEA THE STARS has drawn comparisons to some of the all time greats while running up an impressive list of 5 consecutive Group One victories.  Trainer John Oxx has referred to him lovingly as “the horse of a lifetime.” 

The Irish colt’s dam, Urban Sea, was crowned Arc champion in 1993, meaning he’s got it in his genes beyond the obvious visual talent we’ve seen on display thus far.  The only concern might be mother nature, as he may be a bit vulnerable if rain enters the forecast.  For the moment at least, that does not appear to be the case. 

Lining up against SEA THE STARS is a salty group of accomplished runners, including CONDUIT, the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf champion.  YOUMZAIN will also be looking to make some noise and has shown an ability to hit the board in the Arc before.  Two ladies that I’ll be paying extra attention to are STACELITA and DAR RE MI, as at the moment there is still hope for enticing either of them to ship west for the Breeders’ Cup on November 6 & 7. 

I think this one goes to the favorite, as I can’t see SEA THE STARS being denied in the stretch.  He’s had a hard campaign, but if he’s half the horse that our friends from across the pond say he is (and they tend to know a thing or two about horses and their capabilities), than he should deliver the goods on Sunday.  I’ll probably play CONDUIT and YOUMZAIN underneath along with the two fillies (STACELITA and DAR RE MI).  FAME AND GLORY and CAVALRYMAN are two other horses I’d consider working into my plays, although I’m not fond of the latter’s post position draw (19).

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 7 – The Grade 1 Vosburgh (6 Furlongs)

Moving both backwards in time and to the more familiar surroundings of Belmont Park, we’re confronted with the  70th running of the Vosburgh.  Only 5 horses are entered for this race, but it still has a bit of intrigue based on the horses that will (should) compete. 

MUNNINGS enters as the 3-year-old taking on older males for the first time, and you might think he’d have things easy here against a small field.  Not so fast, my friends.  While the son of champion sprinter Speightstown has chased admirably behind the phenom that is Rachel Alexandra, he’s managed to draw quite a dynamic duo with both KODIAK KOWBOY and FABULOUS STRIKE in his first race against older runners.  

I could see FABULOUS STRIKE getting a perfect trip here and making it look academic in the stretch.  KODIAK KOWBOY and MUNNINGS are talented enough to make it competitive, but would be a bit of a surprise if they managed to stage the upset.  GO GO SHOOT should be pace factor and thus has a shot of hanging on in the exacta. 

Selections: 5/ 1, 4/ 1, 3, 4

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 8 – The Grade 1 Flower Bell (1 1/4 Miles – Turf)

We head to the turf for the 32nd running of the Flower Bell.  Seven horses will compete here in what is a deceptively competitive race.  First, there’s DYNAFORCE.  I don’t know what it is about this girl, but whenever I’ve played her in the past she’s burned me.  Last time out in the Beverly D, I jumped ship and went with PURE CLAN.  You don’t even have to look at the past performances to guess what happened. 

DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN will get another crack at one another on Saturday, and will also run into a pair of runners for trainer Christophe Clement that includes Carribean Sunset.  The daughter of Danheill Dancer could be rounding into form at the right time, but must also answer questions about whether she wants go 10 furlongs. 

A horse that might be overlooked at the windows is MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE.  Leave alone for a second the awesomeness of a horse with a Beatles themed name (especially with the release of The Beatles: Rock Band last month) and instead focus on her running lines.  This seems to be a runner who gives a solid effort each time out, and note that she chased Rainbow View gamely.   We know she likes the distance, so the only question will be whether she’s shipped well enough.  Without the benefit of a recent workout over the track to offer a clue, you’ll have to check her out in the post parade to attempt to make that final assessment.

For now I’ll roll the dice with MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE for the win.  Underneath I’ll add in DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN, with CARRIBEAN SUNSET added to the bottom of the trifecta. 

Selections: 7/ 3, 4/ 1, 3, 4

10/3 – Belmont – Race 9 – The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (1 1/2 Miles – Turf)

The 33rd running of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic presents an opportunity for GIO PONTI, the dark horse longshot for Horse of the Year honors, to continue his fine winning streak that currently stands at 4 consecutive Grade 1 turf races going back to the Frank Kilroe Handicap in March.  He’ll run into a field of 7 other contenders including the upset winner of the Sword Dancer – TELLING. 

The buzz right now is that GIO PONTI is likely pointing to the Breeders’ Cup Classic rather than the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  If true, I’ve got to wonder why his connections are running here rather than opting for a prep like the Goodwood at Santa Anita next week?  Gio does own a victory over the Santa Anita Pro Ride back in December, but that was at the Grade 3 level against the likes of Medjool and El Gato Malo and not the level of class  he’d run into in the Classic.

Presious Passion will definitely be a part of the pace scenario – that much you can take to the bank with you.  The question, as always, will be whether he can slow it down enough to wire the field, or if he’ll run himself into a brick wall like what happened in his Arlington Million effort?  The distance seems to suit him fine – but he may not be as fond of the Belmont turf as he is, say Monmouth.

TELLING stole more form me than even I myself realized in the Sword Dancer, and I’m not sure I’ll ever forgive him.  That race wound up being the final in the career of Better Talk Now, and but for Telling, my beloved Blackie would’ve gone out a winner as he deserved.  I try not to hold grudges – especially not against a horse, but I can’t shake that last bit from my memory. 

I’ll play GIO PONTI for the win, figuring the model of consistency will continue to plug away and do what he always does – win the race.  I think TELLING could hit the board again here as well and will box him along with PRESIOUS PASSION and GRAND COUTURIER on the bottom of my tickets.  If he looks good on the track, I might also work MUSKETIER into the bottom of the equation, as he did run 2nd to GIO PONTI in the Man O’ War.

Selections: 1/ 4, 7, 8/ 4, 7, 8

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 10 – The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – 1 1/4 Miles

 The feature race of Belmont’s sensational Saturday card is the 91st running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.  It always brings me great pleasure to cover a race that my boy Curlin won – not once, but twice!  This year another horse that I’ve got some mojo with comes into the race with strong support; SUMMER BIRD.  The beautiful chestnut son of Bidstone has bookend Grade 1 victories in the Belmont and the Travers buttressing a 2nd place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell.  He absolutely destroyed QUALITY ROAD in the stretch through the slop at Saratoga to take the Travers.  This will be his first start against older horses, but trainer Tim Ice has believed since well before the Belmont that his colt was something special.

MACHO AGAIN will rightly take quite a bit of consideration here coming off a defeat by only a head in Rachel Alexandra’s historic Woodward victory.  We all know how this angle works; horses who have run competitively against Rachel Alexandra are virtual locks the next time they step onto the track.  Given that he holds the age advantage over SUMMER BIRD and QUALITY ROAD, and is as battle tested a Grade 1 older dirt horse as we have in the nation at the moment, MACHO AGAIN would seem to be the one to beat.  I’m just not sure he gets 10 furlongs as well as he usually gets 9.

Instead, I’ve got to stick with my man Tim Ice here and Summer Bird.  Either way, Rachel stands to have yet another feather placed in her cap when a horse she’s defeated adds the Jockey Club Gold Cup to their belt.  QUALITY ROAD is the x-factor here and could either run a huge race or prove to be better suited to shorter distances.  After all the unfulfilled hype surrounding this horse heading into the Travers, I’m going to make him beat me rather than support him.  I think he can hit the board though and would definitely include him underneath in the exotics. 

TIZWAY and ASIATIC BOY shoud also be considered for underneath play in the exotic wagers.  I’m not much of an ASIATIC BOY fan, but he has run respectable at this distance and has a tendency to wind up in the money.  TIZWAY could be interesting at a price considering he appears on paper to be a pace contender – plus you know I never like to discount the possibilities of Tiznow’s offspring. 

Selections: 3/ 2, 4, 7/ 2, 4. 5. 7

Best of luck to all!

We’ll be back next weekend for a look at the Lady’s Secret (featuring Zenyatta and Life is Sweet) from Santa Anita as well as the Spinster (featuring Icon Project) from Keeneland as we continue to countdown to the Breeders’ Cup Championships.