Now that we’ve looked in depth at each of the Friday Breeders’ Cup races this week at Santa Anita, it’s time to get down to business in the Friday finale, the $2 million Ladies Classic. This just happens to be the race I’ve been covering this season for the NTRA, so hopefully it’s one that I wind up being closer to the mark on in terms of selections.
Obviously the fate of this race will be determined by the connections for team Zenyatta. If the undefeated and defending champion returns to preserve her crown, the entire thing becomes academic. There’s simply not another filly or mare in the world that could handle her in her own back yard on the Santa Anita Pro Ride. Don’t read too much into that statement though, as I think most folks know how I feel about the whole Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta “debate.”
Zenyatta – will the queen hold court in the Ladies Classic on Friday, or face the boys on Saturday?
In all honesty, given the way she’s worked and the effortless performance we saw from her last out in the Lady’s Secret, I’m fully anticipating the Moss family and trainer John Shirreffs opt to face the boys in a battle of the sexes in the Saturday version of the Classic. With that in mind, despite her being listed as an entry for the field below, I’m attacking this race assuming that Zenyatta will not be here.
Entries:
- Careless Jewel
- Cocoa Beach
- Lethal Heat
- Proviso
- Rainbow View
- Zenyatta
- Life is Sweet
- Mushka
- Music Note
The first thing to consider in the likely absence of ZENYATTA is the pace scenario. Whereas a 3-year-old like CARELESS JEWEL, freakish as she may be, would likely have been nothing more than a target for the “50 foot woman” to run at, she’d now become a serious threat to wire the field. Especially given her synthetic track ability demonstrated in her past performance running lines at Woodbine earlier in the year. Is Woodbine the same as Santa Anita’s Pro Ride? Not exactly – but at least it’s an indication of ability.
MUSIC NOTE would be your most likely favorite in the absence of ZENYATTA as the daughter of A.P. Indy has won back to back races for white hot Godolphin Stables. We know this, she can handle the Santa Anita Pro Ride just fine, as she did in last year’s Ladies Classic in her 3rd place finish behind ZENYATTA and COCOA BEACH.
Speaking of COCOA BEACH, the daughter of Doneralie Court finds herself right back where she was last year at this time. To be totally honest, I liked her form coming into the Ladies Classic last year better than I do this year. She’s still very capable against a Zenyatta-less field, but she might’ve been a step better in 2008. On the plus side, she’s working her tail off and, like MUSIC NOTE, is racing for the Godolphin crew that seems to turn everything they touch into gold lately.
LETHAL HEAT is an interesting component of this race as trainer Barry Abrams insists she’ll run on both Friday AND Saturday. Personally I think that’s madness, but she definitely warrants consideration here on Friday in the Ladies Classic. As I mentioned in the NTRA post today, you have to go back quite a ways to find her last win, but keep in mind that she’s been facing colts and ZENYATTA in between. She just about always finds a way to finish in the money, and we all know that offspring of Unusual Heat seem to thrive over the California synthetics. Don’t sell this gal too short is all I’m saying.
RAINBOW VIEW is a 3-year-old invader from Europe who would make quite a bit of sense in this race. Whether she runs here or earlier on the card will likely be determined by the decisions made surrounding Zenyatta, but if she shows up she’s capable of staging the upset.
LIFE IS SWEET would probably let out a huge sigh of relief if she could if indeed ZENYATTA runs elsewhere. Her stablemate has had the misfortune of running directly into her in 3 of the last 4 races, with a showdown against colts like Rail Trip sandwiched in between. Go back to her running lines before those last 4 races and what do you notice? Oh yeah – this is a pretty solid horse who should be very game to run a big race here regardless of where ZENYATTA enters.
MUSHKA and PROVISO have the look of outsiders, although anyone who watched them in the stretch of the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland knows they’ve got a bit of a score to settle.
If ZENYATTA runs here, it’s her race to lose. That’s probably the most obvious statement of the year.
If, however, she runs elsewhere, I’m going to take a stab with the 3-year-old phenom CARELESS JEWEL. Why not? Speed seems to be holding up fairly well in 2 turn route races over the Pro Ride. It’ll take all she’s got in her, as she’s yet to face horses as talented as MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW, but this one might set up nicely for her.
Obviously the class of MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW would warrant using them underneath. Likewise I don’t think you can leave LETHAL HEAT or LIFE IS SWEET out of the equation here as well. What appeared to be the “free square” of the Pick 6 sequence several days ago might suddenly become a wide open affair with bettors scrambling to end their tickets on some sort of bold stand.
What say you? If Zenyatta does indeed skip the Ladies’ Classic, which runner do you see stepping up to the plate (pardon the World Series inspired expression) and winding up in the winner’s circle as Ladies Classic champion?
Kevin,
Agree that this won’t be a slam dunk race, from everything I’ve heard and read Z’s in the Classic, and also that CARELESS JEWEL would appear to have the pace advantage. She looked magnificent when I was watching the morning activity on Sunday, as did LETHAL HEAT on both Friday and Sunday.
I believe the race belongs to MUSIC NOTE like readers of my blog can attest. She was 3rd in the race last year, has really developed late in her 4y.o. season, and Godolophin has always considered this race as the end game (unlike the indecisiveness they’ve showed with GIROLAMO, now going in the Classic vs. the Dirt Mlie, where they already have REGAL RANSOM). Last year’s runner up COCOA BEACH doesn’t appear to be the same mare she was at four, was life and death to hold off a troubled LETHAL HEAT plus COCOA did the dreaded “bobble” at the start of the Lady’s Secret. Perhaps that kept her from finding the necessary late energy.
As for the track, it looked last week like the speed was holding better than average in routes and that late runners thrived at sprint distances. Over the weekend, it seemed that the race went to the best horse. Even when that 60-1 bomber scored on Friday, in hindsight he simply ran back to his best race off the layoff which was better than most of the other horses’ best races. The top win payoff on Sunday was $8.60 and that claimer defeated the 8-5 favorite by a diminishing 1/2 length. Pretty formful and I expect the same on the big weekend.
Today, “the Steves” Haskin and Byk agreed that the track looked firmer (like it was last year) and more fair than it reportedly had been earlier in the meeting. Neither are regulars so they don’t really know what the track was like day-to-day, but they also don’t have any preconceived notions about the track and may bring a fresh perspective.
This race, like so many on the weekend, could be won by any one of a number of entrants. They all have enough form and/or breeding where a win could be a mild surprise, but not an upset of “UPSET” proportions.
I do expect PROVISO to bounce in her second stateside race. LIFE IS SWEET just doesn’t seem to have that spark like she did earlier in the year when she rattled off three consecutive graded stakes wins here…IMO, she should have at least run 2nd to Z in the Lady’s Secret to signal her realistic “win” credentials on the step up in class (if a G.1 to a G.1 can be a step up). RAINBOW VIEW…another “Euro bounce” candidate. MUSHKA’s just not a G.1 filly but has the G.1 breeding…I believe that there was no way she was getting by PROVISO in the Spinster if the Juddmonte filly had run a straight line. PROVISO’s biggest wins, two G.3′s w/ one G.1 placing behind GOLDIKOVA. LETHAL HEAT and her local knowledge will make the first move on CARELESS JEWEL and that “heat” may soften up the 3y.o. and could allow the Lady’s Secret runner-up to clear before the late runners can do anything about it. Then again, CARELESS JEWEL could withstand the “HEAT” after setting slow fractions and may go off favored to hold off the closers. I think that makes me three deep: MUSIC NOTE, LETHAL HEAT, CARELESS JEWEL.
I heard on Steve Byk’s show that he considers this year’s event intriguing from the competitive nature of nearly all the races without superstars like RACHEL and SEA THE STARS absent.
Look forward to reading your other stuff.
I have challenged you to an “honor duel” on Facebook… oh this is going to end badly for me. Breeder’s Cup… horse for horse… win/place for the entire event. Top ROI wins……………………………. “That was me, Brian Urlacher before I started using Old Spice.” What do you say KS? A good old civil war match… brother against brother in the main event on Facebook. It’s not North vs. South… it’s East vs. West.
and for a funny one… from the terrible soundtrack or the 80′s movie Twins. Probably the most ridiculous joke of a song of all time… always will be funny! Probably the worst song ever written, but I had to take it down a notch. To much seriousness in horse racing.
I really hope YouTube clips work in your comment box… let’s do this Broski!!!
The closest thing you’ll ever get to ZENYATTA vs. RACHEL
@Amateurcapper – GREAT STUFF!!!! Always appreciate the info and analysis, and you sir have obviously been doing your homework in preparation for the BC.
I can totally see where you are coming from with Music Note and Lethal Heat.
My top 3 (assuming Z and RV aren’t here) would be: CJ, MN, LH.
@Mr. Del Mar – outstanding!!! Where in the world did you dig up that jam from “Twins?” I don’t think I’d heard that since 1987!
Sounds like a plan – I should have all picks finalized by Wednesday night.
Careless Jewel all the way, I’d love to see her win. Music Note, Life is Sweet and Cocoa Beach in that order after Careless Jewel.
Thus spoke Zenya-thustra, I suppose. No queen – so it’s a bit wide open now:
#1 Careless Jewel (2/1)
#2 Life Is Sweet (8/1)
#3 Mushka (12/1)
#4 Lethal Heat (20/1)
#5 Proviso (8/1)
#6 Cocoa Beach (8/1)
#7 Music Note (9/5*)
#8 Rainbow View (6/1)
Can’t argue with the favoritism of Music Note, but I’ll have to try and beat her. Love that 6/1 on Rainbow View. Can’t wait to see that filly in the paddock.
Can someone please explain to me how in the world Lethal Heat is 20/1????? A longer shot than Mushka or Proviso??? Seriously???? Maybe my copy of the odds is just off? I’m left very perplexed by that.
….or have I made the mistake of all mistakes by selling Proviso short? This is now THE horse I fear the most on Breeders’ Cup Friday. May have to take a flyer on that one at 8/1. We’ll see.