THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

It’s time for the not-so-aptly named (these past two years at least) Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.  From here on out we’re in Grade 1 territory.  Ten horses have lined up for a race that features another formidable favorite. I highly suspect this might be a race folks will be taking a stand on one way or another in the Pick 6 sequence.  The field sets up like this:

1. Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
2. Furthest Land (20/1)
3. Midshipman (6/1)
4. Bullsbay (3/1)
5. Neko Bay (20/1)
6. Mambo Meister (30/1)
7. Pyro (10/1)
8. Mr. Sidney (12/1)
9. Chocolate Candy (15/1)
10. Ready’s Echo (20/1)

Johnny Murtagh and Mastercraftsman loom the ones to beat in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

MASTERCRAFTSMAN comes into this race looking mighty tough to defeat.  The only horse to have bested this dude during the 2009 season has been a colt you may have heard of before; Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion Sea the Stars – who managed to defeat him 3 times in as many tries.  MASTERCRAFTSMAN never humiliated himself, even against that monster, and in fact ran 2nd to him in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York (GB) back in August.  Even more importantly, he demonstrated his ability to win over synthetics by winning the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk (IRE) last out.  A force to be reckoned with.  Beat him if you can.

FURTHEST LAND is a 20/1 longshot son of Smart Strike exiting his best ever performance last out at Turfway Park.  He sports an impressive 2 for 2 record over synthetic racing surfaces, albeit at longer distances.  He could find himself up close early on due to the absence of any standout speed in this race on paper.  Trainer Michael Maker is having a banner season, hitting at nearly 30% or better in each of the categories displayed on his Daily Racing Form running lines.  Intriguing, especially considering his anticipated value.

MIDSHIPMAN is best remembered as the champion of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He spent most of the 2009 season on the bench, but returned to defeat optional allowance claiming company at Belmont in September to signal his readiness for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup.  Godolphin Stables has been having a solid 2009 and you have to respect anything that they and trainer Saeed bin Suroor send to post, especially a 3-year-old that still has room for improvement.

BULLSBAY races for my main man, trainer Graham Motion.  The son of Tiznow sports a late closing kick that could be hampered if only a soft pace develops out in front of him.  Still, we’ve seen this guy run gamely against the likes of Rachel Alexandra, so you know he can hang with the best of ‘em.  His last synthetic effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup is the race that most California fans consistently pointed to throughout the year as  proof that horses Zenyatta had beaten (namely Life Is Sweet) had also defeated runners Rachel had beaten, but this guy totally flopped that day finishing 10th out of 13 and was clearly off his usual form.  Way back in 2008 he turned in a better performance finishing 3rd over the “plastics”, which is more along the lines of the type of performance he’d need to prevail here.  You know I’ll be rooting for Graham Motion and Bullsbay, but this one could be tough for BULLSBAY.

NEKO BAY seems to be a fairly consistent son of Giant’s Causeway for trainer John Shirreffs.   Mike Smith will hop aboard to complete the most popular human tandem in all of California racing at the moment, and this horse could make some noise here.  That last allowance race was tougher than it’s designation suggests, and he’s run gamely in both Grade 2 and Grade 3 efforts in the past.  Don’t take this guy too lightly.  He could be the sneak of this field – especially at 20/1.

MAMBO MEISTER is a son of King Cugat making his first synthetic start in the “Dirt” Mile.  Folks might shy away from him quite a bit due to the dreaded “dirt-to-synthetic” angle and the lack of proven Pro Ride form, but I like the fact that he’s won on both turf and dirt – horses that do that usually handle the synthetics just fine.  Whether he has the ability to run a career best coming off that last 100 Beyer figure performance is the bigger question.  One interesting angle to consider: what if this guy were to find himself on the lead?  His effort back in May in the Big Bubble suggests that’s possible. Just something to think about as you look at those 30/1 odds.

PYRO is a horse that folks seem to either love or hate.  Personally, I’ve always liked the guy.  He tries his best in each performance, even if he is something of a “plodder.” It’s interesting that he’s been effective since cutting back to the 7 furlong distance.   Trouble is, he has an attempt at the mile distance here over the Pro Ride, and it was not a performance to remember.  Still, Godolphin seems to have perked this guy back up since getting their hands on him from Steve Asmussen.  This is a horse who once trained alongside the mighty Curlin as that one prepared for the 2008 Dubai World Cup, and he was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga this year in the Forego.  You could do a lot worse for your money.

MR. SIDNEY is an interesting turf runner (primarily) for trainer Bill Mott that will be giving it a second go on the synthetics here in the BC Mile.  His last effort resulted in a 2nd place finish at the allowance level last October at Keeneland.  It looks like he’s improved since then, having competed in numerous Grade 1 races, including a victory in the Makers Mark back in April.  Mott will obviously be hoping that newfound turf form translates into newfound Pro Ride form, and it’s certainly possible.  He seems to like to sit about 4 lengths back or so in the early going, so it’ll be interesting to see where he shakes out given the perplexing pace scenario here.  Probably needs a great trip from Kent Desormeaux to pull this one off.

CHOCOLATE CANDY is the son of Candy Ride that is owned by the famed Jenny Craig.  A steady diet of synthetic races since his couple of flops in the Derby and Belmont on dirt have resulted in improved performances, if not outright victory.  He’s an even running type that seems to not really have that extra gear that folks become enamored with on the race track, yet he’s a popular horse that seems to always generate a certain amount of buzz.  In his last four races, he’s run into Gitano Hernando, Grazen, Summer Bird, and of course Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.  I don’t see him winning this race, but he can certainly hit the board.

READY”S ECHO is a rather nondescript (in terms of victories) son of More Than Ready that I best remember as one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s ubiquitous “shots” in the 2008 Belmont.  Since then he’s showed that he can hit the board, but would probably need the race of his life to win here.  Stranger things have happened, but I’m not biting – even though 20/1 is more than fair for a runner capable of 100+ Beyer figures.  One note in his favor – I actually think READY”S ECHO is a better synthetic runner than he ever was a dirt runner.  Just my humble opinion, althouth his 3-1-2-0 record over the stuff seems to support that claim.

I’ll use the obvious choice here in MASTERCRAFTSMAN for the win, as I don’t see anyone that instills confidence in me from an upset perspective.  Underneath I’m toying with playing some shots in both MAMBO MEISTER and NEKO BAY.  I’ll probably have to use my boy BULLSBAY here as well, and I’m sure my wife will talk me into using PYRO as well (she’s already mentioned “I saw Pyro is running!” excitedly….you know how that goes – now I can’t possibly let him beat me).  I think MIDSHIPMAN deserves a chance here as well, for like I said earlier, we still may have yet to see the best from this guy. 

Selections:

• #1 Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
• #6 Mambo Meister (30/1)
• #5 Neko Bay (20/1)