THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

These Breeders’ Cup races for 2-year-olds…they’re just so…oh, what’s the word I’m looking for?  JUVENILE!

As we turn our attention to the Grade 1 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the focus is on babies – babies who in just a few short months might be captivating the world in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.  Of course, that’s seldom the case, apart from Street Sense back in 2007, but the possibility is still one that gives the race a sense of mystique that makes it worth watching, even if it doesn’t exactly feature the biggest household names of the sport.  Give them time, and some of these guys are bound to leave their mark.  If nothing else, the sky is the limit – as we’ve doubtless yet to see the best this group has to offer. 

The field sets up as follows:

1. Alfred Nobel (20/1)
2. Piscitelli (50/1)
3. Beethoven (20/1)
4. Noble’s Promise (8/1)
5. D’Funnybone (5/2)
6. Pulsion (20/1)
7. Vale of York (20/1)
8. Eskendereya (10/1)
9. Aikenite (8/1)
10.  Aspire (30/1)
11.  Radiohead (15/1)
12.  William’s Kitten (30/1)
13.  Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)

Radiohead – what the hell is he doin’ here?  He don’t belong here.

ALFRED NOBEL is the nobly named son of Danehill Dancer being sent to post for acclaimed trainer Aidan O’Brien.  Jockey Johnny Murtagh will once again climb aboard and thus present us with the same connections that we saw aboard Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile, and will see again with Rip Van Winkle in the Classic.  He won 3 in a row sprinting back ing Ireland earlier this year, with Murtagh aboard for each victory.  The question would seem to be whether he’ll like the 8 1/2 furlong distance of the Juvenile?  I’m admittedly not familiar with the 2-year-olds he’s faced across the pond, but it would seem this one has a chance at a square price.

PISCITELLI is a horse that I almost dismissed outright based on name alone.  He happens to share names with a much maligned defensive back for the equally much maligned Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL.  Leaving that aside for a moment, he seems to be a gradually improving type, although he’s had trouble finding the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden. He does at least have some synthetic form to consider, although he was soundly beaten by a few of his rivals last out in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) last out.  Must continue to improve to score here.

BEETHOVEN tossed me for a bit of a loop when I first saw his name, as we had a horse with the same name among the U.S. 3-year-old crop this year.  Obviously this guy is different, and he could wind up being better.  With Murtagh opting to ride ALFRED NOBEL, Moore will take the mount on this entry for Aidan O’Brien.  He’s a Group 1 winner overseas, having taken the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB) last out.  Like most, must also answer the distance question to prevail.

NOBLE’S PROMISE is a very intriguing son of Cuvee for trainer Ken McPeek, the man who is famously credited with first spotting Curlin.  A winner of 3 straight, he’s climbed steadily from the ranks of maidens to Grade 1 winners.  An old rule of thumb I abide bye is that the best horses make that climb very quickly, and this guy couldn’t have done so any faster.  Add to that his proven synthetic form and the juicy 8/1 morning line odds and I’m ready to make this guy my top pick.  He should be close up in 2nd or 3rd early on and will look to get first jump on the leader(s).

D’FUNNYBONE is the “buzz” horse for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.  The son of D’Wildcat has won his last two efforts in Grade 2 races back in New York in highly impressive fashion.  The trouble for me is that Dutrow isn’t exactly known for being a top synthetic trainer. If this race were on dirt, I’d have to support him, but having to answer the synthetic question and going the seemingly always unpopular dirt-to-synthetic angle (the red-headed step child of synthetic handicapping angles, for whatever reason) makes me just a tad gun-shy.  Could well be the best horse in the field when all is said and done.

PULSION is an off the pace type who seems to be rounding into form nicely for trainer Patrick Biancone.  It took him 3 tries to break his maiden, and he wound up 2nd in his first try against winners – but that was a Grade 1, so don’t think for a moment he can’t move forward again.  Mike Smith stays aboard for Juvenile.  Could be a sneaky play if he continues to progress.

VALE OF YORK is the Godolphin invader for trainer Saeed bin Suroor.  Like ALFRED NOBEL, I know nothing about hat he’s faced, but this son of Invincible Spirit obviously has some talent under the hood as he’s been competing at the Group 1 and 2 levels lately.  Possibility.

ESKENDEREYA ships in from New York for trainer Todd Pletcher.  The son of Gian’ts Causeway romped to break his maiden at the stakes level in the Pilgrim ($152k) last month – a confident move from his connections considering he had lost in his maiden debut.  He’s been training well enough at Belmont building up for this.  Could be a surprise package if he takes to the Pro Ride.  The trouble for me (and most bettors) is that there simply isn’t a whole lot to go on to suggest that he will beyond gut instinct.  My gut tells me he handles the surface fine. 

AKENITE is a very interesting runner, again for trainer Todd Pletcher.  In fact, he appears to be Pletcher’s “A-horse” for this race, and will retain the services of jockey Alan Garcia – who was lights out this summer at Saratoga.  There’s a lot to like about this son of Yes It’s True.  He’s won on both dirt and synthetics (at Keeneland), which suggests he’ll transition to Santa Anita’s Pro Ride just fine.  Further, he’s won at this distance. I think he’s a very legit player in this race and the 8/1 odds are extremely attractive.

ASPIRE – if ever there was a horse named for this blog to support, it’s this guy.  The son of Tale of the Cat broke his maiden in his debut, and has since run 2nd in the Hopeful, and a close 3rd in the Champagne Stakes.  Two very nice looking colts have beaten him in those last two efforts; Dublin and Homeboykris.  Chalk this guy up as another contender in an extremely deep betting race.

RADIOHEAD - He’s so very special. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo.  What the hell is he doing here?  He don’t belong here!  (Run Away!!!). All kidding aside, this guy has the coolest name of the field. In case you’re wondering about those first few sentences, they are part of the 90′s classic anthem “Creep” by the band of the same name as this son of Johannesburg.  Focusing on the horse for a moment, we’re looking at yet another apparently live European shipper that has been running competitively at the Group 1 and 2 levels overseas.  He’ll have to overcome the post position and take to the Pro Ride, but he’s yet another possibility.  As an added bonus, since like me you are no doubt handicapping the marathon that is the BC, enjoy the added music of “Creep” by Radiohead as a brief respite in honor of this, the most badassed named horse of the entire Breeders’ Cup.  Take the break – you’ve earned it if you’ve read this far! 

WILLIAM’S KITTEN is a longshot for trainer Michael Maker that appears outmatched on paper.  That being said, Maker is quite the accomplished horsemen, so who am I to question this placement?  Must step up big time to factor.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY is your 8/5 morning line favorite and will line up at the extreme outside post position #13.  Sure, he’s won all 4 of his lifetime starts, and the son of Smart Strike is also perfect over the California plastics, but has he ever had to break from out here in no man’s land?  On the plus side, with nobody to his outside, he’ll probably get a clean break – which is something you always have to worry about any time you line up 14 2-year-olds like this.  It actually might be a blessing rather than a hinderance.  I just can’t take 8/5 from all the way out here in a race this deep.  I think he’s a fine colt, and Bob Baffert has certainly proven he can prepare horses with the best of them, but I’ll be trying to beat him most likely. 

I’m going to use NOBLE’S PROMISE as my top selection here and then use one of the more obvious selections in LOOKIN AT LUCKY directly underneath.  AKENITE, ASPIRE, ESKENDEREYA, D’FUNNYBONE, and RADIOHEAD are all about equal in my next tier, but I really want to size up some of these Europeans with my eyeballs before finalizing things.  For now I’ll go with RADIOHEAD as my third choice, if only because he’s a creep and weirdo. 

Selections:

• #4 Noble’s Promise (8/1)
• #13 Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)
• #11 Radiohead (15/1)