Time is getting short. At the beginning of the week it seemed like there was ample time to compile selections, but as the days of the week tick bye, it’s starting to feel like crunch time. I’m scheduled to fly out to California for the Breeders’ Cup tomorrow, so the feeling is even more urgent for yours truly to get all the initial picks and analysis covered – if only that I may look like a complete fool in retrospect by the end of the weekend. Such is the life of an aspiring horseplayer, I suppose.
The field for the $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint sets up like this:
- Noble Court (8/1)
- Silver Timber (8/1)
- California Flag (7/2*)
- Lord Shanakill (8/1)
- Get Funky (20/1)
- Cannonball (8/1)
- Gotta Have Her (15/1)
- Square Eddie (20/1)
- Diamondrella (4/1)
- Canadian Ballet (20/1)
- El Gato Malo (30/1)
- Strike the Deal (15/1)
- Desert Code (20/1)
- Delta Storm (10/1)
- AE – Tenga Cat (30/1)
- AE – Cherokee Heaven (30/1)
Good lord. Sixteen possible contenders to handicap? Seems like it would stand to reason that we might have a great betting race before us. I’ll temper that expectation a bit from the start that by pointing out the obvious – we’ve got a very live favorite here who might get an extremely favorable pace setup alone on the lead. Let’s keep this simple and run down the field horse by horse and see what we can discern, shall we?
NOBLE COURT is a son of Doneralie Court that appears to like to come from off the pace. He’s 1 for 1 over the track and distance for trainer John Sadler, who happens to be hitting at a 22% clip for the meet. They like to give him some time between starts, and he hasn’t been seen since a very good 2nd place finish to the mighty Zensational (whom we will see later on in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint). Overall he’s a Grade 3 winner who would appear to have a good shot to wind up in the money, although it will take his best to prevail.
SILVER TIMBER is a very interesting runner that has won 4 of his last 5 starts for trainer Chad Brown, racing mostly on the east coast but also most recently at Keeneland. One of the angles I like to see from an out of town contender is proven ability to win at multiple locations, and the son of Prime Timber has done that recently in finding his way to the winner’s circle at Keeneland, Belmont, and Gulf Stream Park this year. One gets the feeling this guy is rounding (or perhaps has rounded) into his top form now at 6-years-old. He certainly seems a better horse than he was last year, which is saying something considering he ran for one of the better turf sprint trainers in the nation back then in Linda Rice.
CALIFORNIA FLAG is the local hero and winner of the Morvich Handicap (Grade 3) last out, a win which ran his recent record to an impressive 5 victories in his last 6 starts. He’s a burner for sure, perhaps best indicated by the mind blowing :20 & 3 he he ran out of the gate in last year’s BC Turf Sprint – a race that saw him fade badly to 10th at the wire, as might be expected given such a lightning start. Since then he’s been very smart – and quite deadly in California, having won at Hollywood Park, Del Mar, and Santa Anita this year. If he gets loose on the lead again, which he very well could, watch out.
LORD SHANAKILL looks like one of the sneakier options in this race. He’s a 3-year-old son of Speightstown, so you know he was born to sprint. He’s one of the somewhat mystical (to American bettors) European horses, and obviously they are strongly considered on grass. His form isn’t eye popping enough that he’ll get hammered at the windows, but he has run respectably against Mastercraftsman (potential favorite for the BC Mile). Can’t really say the same for his effort against Sea the Stars though. Interesting possible x-factor here to size up as much as you can in the post parade.
GET FUNKY is a hard knocker that always seems to be hitting the board for minor awards. The son of Straight Man (interesting contrast to this one’s name) has seemed to improve though this summer, and seems to prefer this shorter distance. He just missed by a length against CALIFORNIA FLAG in the Morvich and could be one to benefit should the favorite be softened up at all in the pace setup.
CANNONBALL is another who seems to be slowly improving just in time for this effort. The son of Catienus finished 2nd in his final Group One effort this summer at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee Stakes. He followed that up with a victory in a NY state bred stakes for $74k at Saratoga in September that only drew a 6 horse field. I see some things to like in this guy, although obviously the stakes (pardon the pun) get higher here.
GOTTA HAVE HER is another sneaky looking type, this time for trainer Jenine Sahadi. The daughter of Royal Academy has won back to back races, and just missed to Magical Fantasy (who we will see in the BC Filly & Mare Turf on Friday) in the Grade 1 John C. Mabee at Del Mar. Sahadi is hitting at 31% with last out winners, and jockey Tyler Baze has been having a stellar meet winning at a 23% clip. Toss in a perfect 4 for 4 record at the distance and an impressive 9-5-1-2 record at Santa Anita and I think this is a mare you’re going to have to use in some fashion – especially at 15/1.
SQUARE EDDIE looks like an outsider here. It pains me to say that as the once proclaimed “baby Curlin” is a horse I’ve always wanted to see accomplish great things. He just hasn’t looked quite the same this year. His running motion concerns me a bit, although I’m by no means an expert on such things. On the positive side, his human connections are strong with trainer Doug O’Niell and of course Dettori taking the mount. I’d love to see him get it done – I just don’t think it’s in the cards.
DIAMONDRELLA is nothing if not a model of consistency. We’re talking about a horse who has won 7 of 9 races since joining the barn of Richard Dutrow, including a pair of Grade 1′s (the Justa Game at Belmont and the First Lady at Keeneland). One of those 2 losses was by a head, and the other was to Informed Decision, who has a big shot to win the BC Sprint later in the card. I really like this horse. My only concerns are a lack of recent published works at Santa Anita, and the fact that she’s never been over the course. Of the ladies lined up to battle the boys in this race, I think she makes the most sense. If you’re looking to play against the favorite, this would be my top pick as “best of the rest.”
CANADIAN BALLET is a 4-year-old filly running out of the Linda Rice barn. If you know me, then you know turf sprints aren’t my cup of tea. This means that Linda Rice is, without question, my equine related soul mate – as we are polar opposites. You’d be hard pressed to find a finer trainer for such affairs, and while I like this daughter of City Zip, I’m just not sure that she can go with CALIFORNIA FLAG. All of her wins have been wire-to-wire, which means to prevail, she’ll need to do something new. Hmmmmm. Very nice filly, I’m just going to lean elsewhere.
EL GATO MALO – man, I remember when this guy was one of my favorite 3-year-olds on the California circuit last year. Obviously he’s a year longer in the tooth. Trouble is though, he’s just never really put it all together. On his absolute best I see him as fighting for a minor award here. In all fairness though, a look down the list of horses to have beaten him recently is fairly impressive. Yes, that last race was only an Allowance level one, but Neko Bay, Mast Track, and Becrux is pretty darn salty for such a race.
STRIKE THE DEAL is the last of the types I’d classify as “sneaky” (15/1 still qualifies as “sneaky”, doesn’t it?). A winner of back to back starts in the U.K., the 4-year-old son of Van Nistelrooy retains the services of jockey Kieran Fallon for the Turf Sprint. I’m not as familiar with some of the competition he’s faced, so like the other “sneaky” plays, he’s a bit of an x-factor, but certainly seems capable. He seems to have overcome some trouble in each of the last victories, and his lines suggest he might be moving well late. I’d like to see this guy with my own eyes first before finalizing my opinion.
DESERT CODE is a bit on an enigma. You almost feel surprised when you think back and remember that he won this race last year. At first glance you see his recent form and you think “no way.” But look closely – especially at how he came into this race last year. Would you believe that in his final prep for the 2008 BC Turf he also finished 7th to California Flag? Hmmm. The more things change, the more they stay the same. He’s not one of my top picks, but would anyone really be that surprised if he somehow did it again? Respect this guy more than his recent form or the action on the tote board might otherwise suggest. I mean c’mon – do you want to let last year’s victor beat you at 20/1? I didn’t think so. He’s as worth a $2 flyer as any horse I’ve handicapped thus far for that reason alone.
DELTA STORM is a Mike Mitchell trainee who has put up speed figures that clearly make him a contender. He’ll get a pace to run at, but must overcome breaking from the 14 hole. I think he’s a prime candidate to hit the board – “if” he can get a decent trip. Joel Rosario will be in the irons attempting to make that happen. Remember earlier in the year when folks were avoiding Rosario on the grass? How sweet would it be if he picked up a BC turf race? Just something to ponder.
As if all of this weren’t enough, there’s two horses on the also eligible list that might draw into the field. Of the two, TENGA CAT seems to be more of a pace pressing type, while CHEROKEE HEAVEN seems to like coming from off the pace – which I’d prefer given the lightning speed in this race casually referred to as CALIFORNIA FLAG.
I like the looks of both CALIFORNIA FLAG and DIAMONDRELLA here. Obviously CALIFORNIA FLAG has a lot going for him and is worthy of top selection, but DIAMONDRELLA offers slightly better value. Underneath on the exotics, I’d like to work in DESERT CODE, CANNONBALL, and GOTTA HAVE HER, along with possibly LORD SHANAKILL.
Selections:
- #3 California Flag (7/2*)
- #9 Diamondrella (4/1)
- #13 Desert Code (20/1)
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