THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

The 2009 running of the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf has come up extremely intriguing this year, thanks to the presence of the lightning quick Presious Passion, the classy European filly Dar Re Mi, fellow invader Spanish Moon, and the presence of defending champion Conduit.  A cool $3 million will be on the line as the horses go to post on Saturday for the 1 1/2 mile run over the Santa Anita turf. 

The field sets up like this:

1. Telling (20/1)
2. Conduit (7/5*)
3. Red Rocks (20/1)
4. Allegre (50/1)
5. Dar Re Mi (3/1)
6. Presious Passion (4/1)
7. Spanish Moon (5/2)
8. Monzante (30/1)

TELLING is a son of A.P. Indy who took many horseplayers by surprise when he suddenly broke out as a Grade 1 winner in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga this summer.  Prior to that race, the 5-year-old had struggled to find the winner’s circle for quite some time.  He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when he returned in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont last month, and has now drawn the dreaded rail post position.  This will be the toughest competition he’s ever seen, so he’ll need his absolute best to contest for win honors.

CONDUIT is the defending champion from last year’s BC Turf.  A year ago he was coming into this race off of consecutive victories at the Group 3 and Group 1 levels, respectively.  This year he’s got a Group 1 victory in the King George, and a very respectable 4th place finish to Sea the Stars in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe behind him as attempts to defend his crown.  If the Conduit we’ve come to know and love shows up, the others could be running for place and show.  In particular, the presence of Presious Passion in this field ensures he’ll have a target to run at.  Now the question will be whether he can run that target down.  With 12 furlongs to work with, he’ll have plenty of time to do so (although to be honest, the longer the race the slower the anticipated pace usually is).

RED ROCKS will forever be the “horse that spoiled my trip to see Curlin in the Man O’ War back in 2008.  I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to forgive him for that day.  Here’s a guy who is a previous Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, something you certainly have to respect.  I’m just not sure he’s capable anymore now at 6-years-old as things seem to have turned slightly southward this year. 

ALLEGRE is the longsthot of the field at 50/1, and a 4-year-old son of Orientate that would need to both move forward significantly and run his absolute best to factor here, although trainer Brian Koriner is usually good with turfers.

DAR RE MI is the European shipper I’m most fond of here.  The daughter of Singspiel was 2nd to Zarkava (2008 Arc de Triomphe champion) in the Group 1 Prix Vermeile last year and ran a respectable 5th (beaten by 3 1/4 lengths) to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – the richest turf race in the world.  In between she’s bested a filly that I’m extremely fond of named Sariska, as well as the talented Stacelita (although she was ultimately disqualified and placed 5th).  A major player in here for sure who could keep the filly and mare mojo flowing on Saturday with a brilliant performance.

PRESIOUS PASSION is the lightning in a bottle speed of the speed in here.  Remember that effort of his in the United Nations when he was 20 lengths clear of the field the first time around the track?  I don’t think he’ll go that crazy, but he will be looking to open things up quite comfortably in the early going in an attempt to build an insurmountable lead and then hang on for dear life as DAR RE MI, CONDUIT, and SPANISH MOON come charging.  Always dangerous if loose on the lead.

SPANISH MOON is a very intriguing European shipper that has run 6 straight solid races – with 4 of them being victories  – most notably the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.  Coming off back to back wins (including a defeat of Youmzain, the runner-up finisher in the 2009 Arc de Triomphe) signals that this son of El Prado is ready to run a big one in his first visit to the U.S.  Respect his chances.

MONZANTE rounds out the field for trainer Mike Mitchell, who will return the son of Maria’s Mon to the guiding hands of jockey Rafael Bejarano.  The pair teamed up for two of this horse’s better performances last year at Del Mar, and will look to recapture some of that previous magic.  Finished 7th, though only beaten by a collective 4 lengths to Colonel John and Gitano Hernando in the Goodwood last out.  Rates as an outside possiblity on his top stuff.

Overall I think CONDUIT is still the guy you’ve got to get passed here, and I’ll give the defending champ the nod.  You won’t hear any argument from me though to those who side with DAR RE MI, PRESIOUS PASSION, or SPANISH MOON as all 3 seem quite capable of winning.  In my mind, PRESIOUS PASSION leads the field into the stretch, when these 3 come charging home. I like CONDUIT getting home on top by a very slim margin, with PRESIOUS PASSION holding on to finish 2nd or 3rd, and either DAR RE MI or SPANISH MOON taking the other slice. 

Selections:

• #2 Conduit (7/5*)
• #6 Presious Passion (4/1)
• #5 Dar Re M (3/1)