THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

In looking over the first three races of the Breeders’ Cup Championships at Santa Anita this weekend, there seems to be a slight pattern emerging that goes something like this:  relatively simple race, followed by relatively difficult race, followed by relatively simple race.

We started things off with what appears to be Mastery’s race to lose in the BC Marathon, and then jumped into the fray with a very difficult to decipher running of the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.

As we turn our attention to the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, things would appear to be tending back towards simplicity…at least on paper (and at first glance). 

The field sets up like this:

• Allicansayis Wow
• Evita Argentina
• Free Flying Soul
• Game Face
• Informed Decision
• Only Green
• Sara Louise
• Seventh Street
• Silver Swallow
• Sweet Hearth
• Ventura

The aforementioned simplicity is due to the fact that this race appears to set up wonderfully for INFORMED DECISION.  The daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has 5 wins in 6 lifetime races at the ever tricky 7 furlong distance of the F&M Sprint. While her Beyer figures may not be the sexiest, her class shines through clear as day with 7 victories in her last 8 starts.  The only defeat in that stretch coming at the hands (hooves) of Music Note, a filly who has a big shot in the Ladies’ Classic later in the afternoon on Friday.

Things are never quite so simple in horse racing, however. If they were, we’d all be billionaires by now instead of the type of people who at least glance at the tickets left at the automatic betting machines – hoping that some fool has discarded a winner that we can quickly put to good use recouping previous losses. Oh well…that’s probably just me.

While INFORMED DECISION definitely deserves the likely favoritism that will be bestowed upon her this weekend, it’s not like the other horses in this race are going to let her waltz away without a fight.

One runner who could be setup for a big time effort is VENTURA.  The 5-year-old daughter of Chester House will not be large price on the tote board, and could in fact wind up being favored if folks focus on the Beyer figures alone.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot of ground that separates these two classy ladies, which was probably best illustrated by their 1-2 finish in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, with only a head between them.

Since that effort in the Madison, VENTURA has actually improved her speed figures, whereas INFORMED DECISION regressed slightly (although keep in mind she’s continued to win – which is really all that matters).

Add to the equation a runner like SWEET HEARTH, who might get overlooked a bit by U.S. horseplayers due to her lack of established synthetic form.  You hear folks say all the time that turf form translates well into synthetic form.  Whether that’s true or not is an argument for another time.  What is without question though is that if you believe this notion for even a microsecond, how could you possibly pass on SWEET HEARTH? All she did was finish ahead of Goldikova last out at Longchamp in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1).  Yes, that Goldikova – the same on that defeated males in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup.

Speaking of beating males, that’s exactly what EVITA ARGENTINA did in the San Vicente back in February.  Guess what distance the San Vicente was?  You guessed it – 7 furlongs.  While considered a Kentucky Derby prep race, that San Vicente effort might’ve been more of a prep for this race instead.  Still, the daughter of Candy Ride would appear to have her work cut out for her here.

What about Sara Louise?  The infamous “last horse to defeat Rachel Alexandra” that we hear so much about.  She showed she can knock heads with the likes of Indian Blessing (ironically probably the 2nd highest ranking departure from the BC due to the “synthetics issue” along with Rachel Alexandra) losing by only a head to the champion filly last out.  If her workouts are any indication (specifically 4 furlongs in 47 and 4 on 10/23), she appears to have taken to the surface rather well. 

Even some of the longer shots on the board have much to like about them.  SEVENTH STREET is a “must use” in the exotics (9 for 9 in-the-money finishes lifetime).  SILVER SWALLOW was running the “race of her life” against Zenyatta in last year’s Vanity at Hollywood Park, and is probably a better horse now than she was then. 

Then there’s ALLICANSAYIS WOW.  The horse with arguably the coolest name of the entire field, and a very interesting runner cutting back from longer distances on the grass in her most recent efforts.  I’m hearing whispers she might have had a slight injury during workouts this morning, but this is a filly who has also run well against colts in her last two efforts. 

The horses who scare me the most here are the ones I haven’t mentioned.  FREE FLYING SOUL appears a bit outmatched on paper, but we all know what happens to handicappers the minute you say that about a horse.  GAME FACE is clearly capable yet didnt’ run particularly encouraging in her only synthetic effort at Presque Isle Downs.  ONLY GREEN is perhaps the most worrisome as she seems outclassed by a runner like SWEET HEARTH on paper.  Again, we all know how that story can go. 

I’ll be playing INFORMED DECISION and VENTURA in the exotics.  If I had to pick from one of these and my life depended on it, I’d probably opt for the former.  On my deeper tickets I might add SWEET HEARTH to the equation as I think she’s definitely capable.  Underneath I’ll add in SARA LOUISE, SEVENTH STREET, and ALLICANSAYISWOW (provided she’s okay to go).

Selections:

• Informed Decision
• Ventura
• Sweet Hearth