THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Horse and Plowman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer

While it’s true that the official Kentucky Derby prep season begins well before this weekend, the racing action on Saturday at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park promises to treat viewers suffering with post Eclipse Awards “Derby Fever” with perhaps their first true glimpse of what the future holds.

Grade 3 Holy Bull

The 21st running of the Holy Bull (G3) in Saturday’s 9th race at Gulfstream Park (5:08 ET) will be contested by nine 3-year-old colts going 1 mile over the main track. In 2006, the legendary Barbaro used the Holy Bull as a spring board to his eventual triumph in the Kentucky Derby.  The field for this year’s Holy Bull sets up like this:

1. Thank U Philippe (E. Castro/M. Wolfson) 8/1
2. Homeboykris (E. Prado/R. Dutrow Jr.) 5/1
3. Litigation Risk (A. Garcia/R. Violette) 12/1
4. Piscitelli (K. Desormeaux/R. Sacco) 6/1
5. William’s Kitten (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
6. Winslow Homer (R. Dominguez/A. Dutrow) 6/1)
7. Wild Lime (J. Lezcano/M. Trombetta) 20/1
8. Aikenite (J. Velazquez/T. Pletcher) 4/1
9. Jackson Bend (J. Rose/N. Zito) 5/2*

The field is headlined by Nick Zito’s star trainee, JACKSON BEND, who has won 5 consecutive races including 4 consecutive stakes.  If he can stalk and pounce from his outside post position and get a decent trip, he makes for a dangerous chalk to play against.

It’s early in the year though.  Who comes here to play chalk in the first big race of the year?  Several other horses in this race look very playable if their morning line odds hold.

I’ll start with WILLIAM’S KITTEN, a son of Kitten’s Joy that my good friend Tencentcielo was eager to see on Breeders’ Cup weekend.  We raced to the paddock for the Juvenile to get a glimpse of him prior to the race.  Sent off at stratospheric odds, he both made a stronger visual impression in the paddock and ran a better race than his running line suggests.  I think this guy’s a player in here, although I think his better days are further down the road.

HOMEBOYKRIS is an interesting Maryland Bred for infamous trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.  He looked like a legitimate Derby contender in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont late last fall, but then pressed the pace and gave way stretching out to 9 furlongs in the Remsen (G2) in November.  The cut back to 1 mile and the bullet workouts in December and January suggest he’s ready to move forward.

Ultimately, I’m going to think a bit outside the box for my first prep play of the year.  I like the looks of WINSLOW HOMER quite a bit in this spot.  He’s only raced 3 times, but if not for a neck defeat in his début, the son of Unbridled’s Song would be a perfect 3 for 3.  He’s still got room for improvement and ran big off a  2 month layoff back in November at Philly Park.  Ramon Dominguez has to be excited to get another shot aboard this guy.  If the odds of 6/1 hold, I think he makes a lot of sense.

Oh yeah, about that random painting at the top of this post – that’s “”Horse and Ploughman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer.  Seemed fitting, given this selection.

Selections for the G3 Holy Bull:

• #6 Winslow Homer (6/1)
• #9 Jackson Bend (5/2*)
• #2 Homeboykris (5/1)

I’d add Aikenite and William’s Kitten into the exotic plays, and you may want to take a look at the Moss family entry, Piscitelli as well.

Dime Superfecta: 6/2,5,8,9/2,4,5,8,9/ALL = $9.60

Grade 3 Lecomte

The 66th running of the Lecomte in Saturday’s 10th race at Fair Grounds (4:43 CT) features 11 3-year-olds in a two-turn event covering 1 mile & 40 yards over the main track.  The most notable Lecomte winner of recent history was eventual runner up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Hard Spun.  Ironically, Friesan Fire, winner of last year’s Lecomte, is racing in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

The field for the 2010 LecComte sets up as follows:

1. Maximus Ruler (F. Torres/H. Clark) 4/1
2. Turf Melody (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 7/2
3. Worldly (R. Albarado/P. McGee) 5/1
4. Depaul (S. Sellers/S. Asmussen) 20/1
5. Citrus Kid (M. Mena/J. Terranova) 8/1
6. Callide Valley (C. Lanerie/E. Kenneally) 10/1
7. B’wanagoldmine (E. Martin Jr./D. Pish) 15/1
8. Letsgetitonmon (S. Bridgmohan/S. Asmussen) 10/1
9. Coll Bullet (B. Hernandez Jr./S. Margolis) 5/1
10. Rock Hard (H. Theriot/B. Barnett) 30/1
11. Ron the Greek (J. Graham/T. Amoss) 8/1

MAXIMUS RULER is the horse that I think will ultimately go off as the post time favorite in this one, and for good reason.  While the son of Roman Ruler has never been two turns before, he is accomplished at the one mile distance last out racing close to the pace.  He’ll likely need to be involved early on breaking from the rail, but would seem to have the tools to turn in a solid performance if he can settle down in 2nd or 3rd.  I think he’s the obvious choice, even if I suspect he’ll be bet down a bit.

TURF MELODY heads out for my main man Graham Motion.  The son of Maria’s Mon has pulled off back-to-back victories at the mile distance in his last two starts – a sign that bodes very well for his chances here.  The only thing that worries me slightly is that Valdivia must get used to him right away. Russel and Rose certainly have this guy figured out, so hopefully Jose Jr. can be a quick study.  This runner has a nice old-school foundation laid in his running lines.  Graham just might have him ready to move forward here in start #1 for 2010.

WORLDLY is an interesting runner in this field, having been defeated by Stay Put last out in the same track/distance conditions.  The son of A.P. Indy would seem to need an improved performance to find the winner’s circle today, but it’s certainly not out of the question as there does seem to be some talent under the hood.

I’d look for CITRUS KID a little later in the year as the Lemon Drops can take a little while to get rolling, although this one did win back to back starts at Delaware Park last fall.  The water is a bit deeper here today, so he’d need his best stuff.  I’m going to consider him more of an underneath play in the exotics.

COOL BULLET is a horse stretching out for the first time who should be a factor in the pace scenario.  DEPAUL and CITRUS KID could challenge for the lead early on, which could open things up for the off-the-pace types coming in from behind.

Lastly, RON THE GREEK looks a little interesting from the outside post.  The son of Full Mandate started off his career with back to back victories before being defeated by TURF MELODY last out.  He’s another that warrants strong consideration for an underneath spot on the exotic plays.

Selections for the G3 Lecomte:

• #1 Maximus Ruler (4/1)
• #2 Turf Melody (7/2*)
• #3 Worldly (5/1)

I’ll give CITRUS KID, COOL BULLET, and RON THE GREEK strong consideration for the bottom positions of my Superfecta play.  CALLIDE VALLEY is a horse I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a player as well.  I don’t want to totally sleep on the Asmussen runners DEPAUL and LETSGETITONMON or B’WANAGOLDMINE, but you know the drill; can’t chose ‘em all.

Dime Superfecta:  1/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,9,11/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 =$11.20

So that’s where I stand headed into the first big weekend of the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep season.  I’m all in on WINSLOW HOMER and MAXIMUS RULER.  My only question for all of you is “who you got?”