Derby Rankings – An Exercise in Futility

22 02 2010

If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy.  Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists.  All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

So where do we stand now?  Well, there is no definitively correct answer.  What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question.  Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.

In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time.  Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May.  Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView.  With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?

1. ESKENDEREYA

Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20.  Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend.  I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out.   Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse.  I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot.  Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.

2. ODYSSEUS

You may have missed him if you blinked this past week.  That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday.  Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy.  He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently.  If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here.  We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings.  Is he a contender or a pretender?  For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon.  I’ll say this for certain:  The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.

3. DISCREETLY MINE

Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner.  The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease.  He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace.  I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical.  I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders.  None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way.  Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs?  I’m not sure.  Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.

4.  RULE

Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner?   This is absolute insanity.  Three of the top Four spots?  I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long.  Rule  ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month.  Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though).  Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two.  I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.

5.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY

I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt.  I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that  he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year.   Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival.  In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical?  I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.

6.  VALE OF YORK

Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table.  You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him.  In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here.  Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.

7.  CARACORTADO

How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface?  ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!”  I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs.  A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics.  He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.

8. JACKSON BEND

Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country.  I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya).  So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear.  The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races.  We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.

9. SIDNEY’S CANDY

Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy.  Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had.  I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy’s Saint or Ron the Greek.   What has me sold on Sidney is potential.  He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next.  Could be any kind of horse.

10. BLIND LUCK

Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby.  Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced.  Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season.  At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments.  I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best.  I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion.  Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender.   Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.

OTHER NOTABLES

Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list.  I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on.  He didn’t get much pace to run at  in the Risen Star and that probably cost him.  I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on.  I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.

Supremely disappointing this week?  DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star?  He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked.  Huge disappointment.  I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.

So that’s where I stand for the moment.  What about you guys?


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Odysseus and the Derby Mythica

19 02 2010

“[W]e have still not reached the end of our trials. One more labor lies in store—boundless, laden with danger, great and long, and I must brave it out from start to finish“

- Odysseus – The Odyssey (Book 23: The Great Rooted Bed)

It took Homer’s legendary hero Odysseus ten full years to return home to Ithaca following the Trojan War.  On Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs, it took a promising 3-year-old colt of the same name only 1:44.37  to travel 8.5 furlongs while demolishing a field of Allowance runners in impressive fashion.   In the process, he may have given us our first glimpse at the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner.

So what do we have here?  A legitimate Derby contender or a “Trojan Horse”?  It was, after all, the cunning Odysseus who came up with the idea for the famed Trojan Horse ruse (after an unsuccessful attempt involving  a hastily constructed “large wooden rabbit”, of course).

Let your eyes do the judging.  The replay has not been uploaded yet to Youtube as of this writing, but it is available over at Tampa Bay Downs replay archive.  Just click on the date 2/17 and then select the 9th race.

http://www.tampabaydowns.com/DailyReplays.aspx

Additionally, the Equibase results chart is available here.

The two races that instantly crept into my mind when viewing this were the first time we saw Curlin in 2007, and Big Brown’s triumphant start to his 2008 campaign.  Remember how those horses just looked clearly the best?  Obviously the 15 length victory margin over horses of questionable quality should not be overstated, but he sure does look like he’s got “it”, whatever “it” is.  Of course, not only does he look magnificent on the track, evidently he also has what it takes under the hood. The famed Steve Haskin from Bloodhorse notes in his latest column that Odysseus has numerous Belmont Stakes winners and an English Triple Crown winner in his first 3 generations.

Only time (and a healthy dose of luck) will tell if he goes on to achieve the kind of glory he seems capable of.  The path to the Derby being literred with countless horses who displayed a flash of brilliance, only to wind up forgotten with the passage of time.  We all know painfully well that anything can and will happen on the road to the Derby.  It does appear, however,  that this is a horse you might want to start taking seriously, and is probably worth adding to the old horse watch list over the weekend so that you don’t miss him next time out.

My personal opinion?  I don’t think we’ll see him challenged until he faces the cream of the crop at the Grade 1 level.  All things being equal, he appears likely to blow right through the Grade 3 level, and probably the Grade 2 level if they chose to give him a run there.

In fact, not only do I think he’s a contender, but I’m officially jumping squarely on the bandwagon (and  busting out my trusty “jump to conclusions mat” for good measure).  He’s my Derby horse.   All the way to the top of the list.  There, I said it.

I guess that’s only fitting and proper considering the tagline for this blog is “the odyssey of a horse racing enthusiast and amateur handicapper.”

And to think, all along I thought it was Aspire I was going to have to hitch my wagons to from a nomenclature standpoint.

It’s not that I want to get too carried away with him, but by and large my gut feeling on this year’s crop is that it’s been largely unimpressive thus far.  Nobody had blown me away…at least not until Odysseus came along.   I think the world of many of this year’s horses, but none of them had left you with that “wow feeling” in the pit of your stomach.  I got that “wow” sensation watching this guy run.  Now I just have to hope he stays healthy and can live up to those expectations as a potential date with destiny approaches.

Given my lack of recent Derby success, it seems it would take a horse that invokes remembrances of epic heroes and mythical voyages to break the curse that the horse racing gods have placed upon me.  That may be what it takes to get one of my Kentucky Derby picks home.  It’s become one of those idiosyncrasies that I no longer try to fight.  I just accept it, put my head down, and come to the realization that to plow right through is the only option.  Suffice to say, I cannot pick a Derby winner to save my life.  Ironic (if not Socratically Ironic) given that I always seem to get the Preakness right, but for the life of me picking a Derby winner has been darn near impossible ever since Barbaro.

Let’s review quickly, if only for a lesson in handicapping ineptitude:

  • 2006:  I liked Barbaro and made him my top pick, but also gave out Bandini as a horse that had to be played.  I’m not sure if Bandini has even crossed the finish line yet, all these years later.
  • 2007:  Obviously I was all about Curlin, although Hard Spun was my 2nd choice.  The one horse I was taking a stand against wound up being Street Sense, whose brilliant rail move absolutely crushed the rest of the field.  To be honest, huddled around a small monitor without any sound at Pimlico that afternoon, I didn’t even realize that Curlin had fought on for 3rd.   Moot point, of course, as he never threatened for the win, but in the end we did get the last laugh in this act.
  • 2008: Deciding that Big Brown could not be played at 5/2 breaking from the 20 hole, despite clearly being the best horse in the race, I put my faith in Colonel John and anointed him as the selection.  What followed was perhaps the worst race from the Colonel in his entire career.
  • 2009:  A trifecta of Derby related tragedy and ineptitude, having made Quality Road my top choice several weeks out, only to see him injured and scratched from the race.  Without batting an eye, I settled on I Want Revenge, only to find out on Derby morning that he too was a no go.  Finally, I went with Friesan Fire, who wound up finishing 19th out of 20th.

Why do I bring the painful history denoted above up?  Because this is the year we break through.  I’ve consulted the Oracle of Delphi on the mater, and in a hypnotic trance she seemed to suggest something about “a wager on the hero brings gold to the chosen ones.”  Of course, she also cautioned me against invading Persia, but you know how Oracles can be.

This much I’m certain of: Odysseus is going to be the horse that gives me a shot to finally pull it off.

Overall, this weekend stands to tell us quite a bit about the rest of the crop, with no shortage of Derby prep races being run across the nation. I’m going with D’funnybone over Radiohead in the Hutcheson and Buddy’s Saint over Pulsion in the Fountain of Youth.  Nothing particularly surprising there. The Risen Star looks a bit more wide open to me, with Tempted to Tapit, Ron the Greek, Drosselmeyer, and Discreetly Mine all being possible win candidates.  I’m going to be playing Tempted to Tapit as my top choice, but it’s not a confident selection.   I guess I’ll take Dublin over Conveyance and Cool Bullet in the rescheduled Southwest Stakes, although again, no where near as confident with that pick as I am with D’funnybone in the Hutcheson or Buddy’s Saint in the Fountain of Youth.

The journey has begun, my friends! After this weekend I’ll start putting together a revolving top 10 list each week.  For now though, I’m very curious to know what your opinions on Odysseus may be.  Did we see a Derby contender on Wednesday, or is he a Trojan Horse that is being overhyped by folks like me?


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Road to the Roses 2010

15 02 2010
It’s that time of year again, racing fans.  Next weekend, the first scoring races for the 2010 Road to the Roses fantasy challenge are set to kick off – which means you’d better get those stables filled out and registered now if you want to take part.  For racing fans, this is usually the most highly anticipated of fantasy contests on the year, generating quite a bit of buzz (including a Facebook group that boasts over 2900 “fans” – quite a feat considering only 380 folks on all of Facebook show up under a search for “horse racing” – meaning it must not be a popular interest that people have listed).
……………………..
Two leagues that I’m a part of would welcome your participation, if you haven’t registered already.  One is for the TBA group I proudly blog with.  The other is from our good friend Tencentcielo over on the TVG Community.  To get started, here’s the Brisnet PPs for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool.

To access one of the leagues, just fill out your stable horses, jockeys, and trainers and then once you confirm your stable you’ll be asked if you wish to join an existing league.  Just type in the League ID and the Activation Code for the league as noted below.

Any user can create up to 3 free stables to participate in the contest.  The top overall prizes are always fairly sweet, including a trip to the Derby and a future wager.

  • TBA 2010
    • League ID: 3173203388
    • Activation Code: 2247553444
  • A Dime on the Ten
    • League ID: 2071312789
    • Activation Code: 1205335816

We’d certainly love to have more folks in those leagues to make things interesting, so give it a whirl and pass that information along to anyone you think may be interested.

For now, I think it’s safe to assume that volatility will be the order of the day.  To be sure, just a few day ago horses such as American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Lookin at Lucky, and UpTownCharlyBrown were receiving strong inclusion consideration.  I still think any of those can go on to be fine horses, but I sided against Lucky due to the synthetics question, and then passed on the Tiznows (which I KNOW will come back to haunt me) based on their most recent efforts.

Every year it seems like there’s more and more folks coming along who are first time players with some interest in getting involved in the challenge.  For them, I’ve included a breakdown of who I chose and why below.  Of course, it’s also for you more seasoned players, so that I can be reminded of my follies all season long.  A little humility is always good – especially for horseplayers.  Admittedly, I went with my heart on a few of these, but without further adieu, let’s get to the list, shall we?

Horses:

  • Buddy’s Saint – consensus top three Derby candidate, but questions about over who he’s faced are starting to be raised.  Has won going 9 furlongs on the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen.  That counts for something.
  • Vale of York - my current #1 3-year-old colt in training.  Even though he’ll train overseas and may not run in any races that qualify for the challenge, I couldn’t leave him off the list.  He made an impression on me in the paddock for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and when I cashed on him at better than 30/1 a few moments later, suffice to say a soft spot grew in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
  • Blind Luck - seems every year around this time I fall for a filly.  In 2008 it was Eight Belles and Pure Clan.  In 2009 it was Rachel Alexandra.  In all likelihood she will continue to point for the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think she deserves a place at the table based on potential alone.  She may be closer to Stardom Bound in terms of ceiling than Rachel Alexandra, but have we really seen any colts that would scare you away at this point?
  • Ron the Greek – I have to admit, I don’t think I gave this son of Full Mandate enough credit when he first won the Lecomte (G3) over Maximus Ruler.  He’d seem to need a pace in front of him for his prep and Derby chances, but so far that doesn’t seem to be something this crop is lacking.  In fact, so far Ron’s one of the few that looks authoritative coming from off the pace.  I would caution that Giacomo style dead closers don’t usually win the Derby, but in recent memory we do have Mine that Bird and Street Sense doing exactly that.  I’ll roll the dice.
  • William’s Kitten – Some folks may be deceived by the buzz surrounding this horse.  He’s speed figures don’t leap off the page, but if you appreciate a slow, steady, progression of races to build a foundation – the way trainers did in the not-so-long-ago, he begins to make a lot of sense.  Think on this, he’s run very well against Super Saver, Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and that 8th place finish in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble’s Promise was better than you might think.  I think he’s a serious race horse.
  • Rule - probably the trendiest of my inclusions.  Pletcher has himself a horse with some speed in this son of Roman Ruler, and word is he’s headed for a Grade 1 next.  Considering how few opportunities one gets to score points in a Grade 1 during the contest, it’s nice to have a runner pointing for such a race.
  • Tempted to Tapit – Impressive 11 length winner last out took 4 starts to break his maiden and was beaten by another under consideration for this spot, Laus Deo.  Took the kind of explosive move forward last out that you want to see this time of year.  Still has many questions to answer though (distance, can he avoid a bounce, etc.).
  • Drosselmeyer – Another who took a significant step forward last out, and this time it was against winners for the first time, an accomplishment that suggests he’s got what it takes.  The son of Distorted Humor went 9 furlongs in 1:49 and 2 at the Allowance level on January 31st at Gulfstream Park; and he did it rating off the pace.  Looks like a very live contender to me.
  • Jackson Bend –   Took 4 consecutive ungraded stakes at Calder before finishing 2nd to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull.  Could just be  a nondescript Calder horse, but there is something about him that I like, and that’s been amplified by the switch to the Nick Zito barn.
  • Setsuko - I’ll be honest, this horse was nowhere on my radar until TVG’s Matt Carothers mentioned him the other day.  Additionally Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form has mentioned this horse as one to keep an eye on.  He basically wasn’t anything until Richard Mandella put blinkers on him, and now he’s sort of a dark horse for the CA circuit.  Definitely a reach, but this was my final spot.

To fill out my stable, I selected Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher as my trainers, as each seems loaded this year with possibilities, and settled on Julien Leparoux and Garrett Gomez for my jockeys.  I know Go-Go burned me a bit last year by not accruing a ton of points, but he’s too consistently good a rider to avoid in my opinion.

So who scares me?   Well, it’s always dangerous to leave Lookin at Lucky off the list.  Same goes for runners like Eskendereya and Super Saver.  You know it pains me to leave the Tiznows off the list (American Lion and Tiz Chrome), but none of these horses has me worried that much.

The runners I’ll be losing sleep over not including are Laus Deo (nice looking Medaglia d’Oro colt), D’funnybone (who has really only turned in one bad race in the “synthetic Juvenile” last fall, and even then was a very good looking colt until about mid stretch), and any of the Afleet Alex offspring out there who look potentially promising.

The good news?  The first “supplemental draft” is slated for March 15 (with another coming on 4/12), so if I’ve whiffed on a Derby runner there will be two chances to make amends.

Speaking of which – I’ll go on record as saying I still don’t think we’ve seen a Derby winning caliber performance from any of these horses.  The whole thing is still wide open if someone wants to jump up and grab victory.

So what are you waiting for – download those past performances and get to handicapping!  It’s time to get serious about the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep races!

We’ll be back this weekend with previews of the Hutcheson, Risen Star, and Fountain of Youth.


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Clash of the Titans! Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to meet in the Apple Blossom

11 02 2010

And so it begins.

Not since Godzilla saved Japan from imminent destruction at the hands of Mechagodzilla has such an incredible, mind blowing event taken place between creatures capable of capturing man’s undivided attention.  On a day that included a complete turnaround on the topic, we finally have confirmation that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will meet in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park on Friday, April 9th.  The race everyone has clamored for is thus upon us.  Our big chance to garner a sliver of national attention outside of the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup is finally here!  Damn the torpedoes! It’s on like Donkey Kong!

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta

Of course, these are fragile creatures we’re dealing with, even if they are unbelievably gifted athletes (equiletes?).  Before we get too excited about things, it goes without saying that anything can happen.

Let’s think about this for a moment though. What do have here?  I’m talking about the horse race of course.  You’ll have to free your mind for a moment from the Japanese monster movie greatness.  Two Hall of Famers in a showdown for the ages!  One can almost see it now. Rachel Alexandra, the Preakness champion out in front as the field turns for home.  Undefeated Zenyatta swinging to the center of the track as she inhales runners with every stride on her way to the wire.  The two make eye contact, locking horns mentally and physically.  A battle of wills for the ages ensues.  A desperate finish.  No quarter asked.  No quarter given.  An all out battle for the wire.

Anyone else feel like maybe we’ve seen this before?

Maybe it’s just me, but the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff sure sounds very similar to what we may see in the Apple Blossom.  Certainly it’s one of the easier races to attempt to draw a direct comparison from.  The major difference of course being the stage – one being at the Breeders’ Cup, where such matchups, for the good of the sport, probably should happen – and the other being at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas on a Friday night in early April – not a bad setting at all, just not the biggest stage one could imagine for such an epic race to happen.

Getting back to the race comparison – think about it.  Winning Colors was the Derby champion, jetting out to a commanding early lead.   Personal Ensign. the undefeated older filly that was racing on a surface some questioned whether she would enjoy.  Personal Ensign comes thundering down the center of the track, meaning business with every step, catching Winning Colors in a photo finish at the wire.  Seems to me that stretch battle between them is very close to what we might expect in the Apple Blossom this year.

Will history repeat itself?  I’m quite certain each of these magnificent horses will run their hearts out in impressive performances.  Their class will certainly rise to the top.  I usually like to play longshots in situations like this where the public turns the affair into a two horse race, but not here.  Not against these two monsters.  I’m not sure which is Godzilla and which is Mechagodzilla – but I don’t think there’s a filly or mare in the nation that stands a chance against them.  Thankfully the purse money was boosted to $5 million in an attempt to ensure both horses would run.  Considering the wealth of the respective owners involved here, I don’t think money is the principal motivating factor – it’s competition.  In that sense, think of the purse boost as insurance for the horses filling out the Superfecta as much as it is for the likely top two finishers.

To be honest about it though, I can’t even bet on the race apart from perhaps purchasing a souvenir $2 ticket on each.  In an odd way, I’ll be rooting for both of them.  That’s sort of a unique position for me.  I’ve never cared so deeply about something so momentous without having a clear cut “side” I was on.  I’m not taking sides here.   This one is bigger than that sort of petty nonsense.  This is about history, greatness, and everything that made us love the game of horse racing.  All I want is a good, clean race where all runners return safely – basically what I’m hoping for each time the gate springs open.

Well, that’s not entirely true.  That’s not ALL I want.

From the moment the Rachel/Zenyatta debate first raged, I’ve maintained a desire to see only one outcome – a dead heat where neither horse is forced to accept defeat.

They’re just too darned good for that.  I suppose it’s the proverbial rock and a hard place.  The fan and competitor in me wants to watch them race, but in my heart I don’t want to see either lose.  Oh well.  I suppose we can’t have our cake and eat it too.  At some point you must let the caged birds fly.

Who knows though – given how close that 1988 Distaff was?  I’m just sayin’ – don’t be shocked if it is a dead heat.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Snowmageddon Redux – The Great Debates

11 02 2010

A view of our back deck in the middle of round 2 of "Snwomageddon" on 2/10/10

Well, if you live on the east coast anywhere near the mid-atlantic region, you’ve no doubt seen enough of the white stuff to last you a lifetime.   Here in Hanover, PA we received as much as 28 inches of snow over the weekend, only to receive around 30 more inches yesterday.  Right on schedule, you guessed it, there’s a chance for even more snow this coming Monday.   What on Earth are folks to do being trapped inside their abodes for so long?   Thankfully (or in some cases not-so-thankfully) the racing gods have sent answers to our prayers to help break the monotony  in the form of numerous noteworthy or debatable issues.

  • Curlin’s first foal, the filly from Zophie has passed

I don’t like to start on a down note, but I have to mention this.  The filly from Zophie who was Curlin’s first born has passed in what is described as a “paddock accident” just weeks after causing so much hope and well wishing at the announcement of her birth.  So much for debating what to name the little gal.   I’m taking a glass half full approach with this as we all know how absolutely fragile thoroughbreds can be.  The “good news” is that she is not the only of her kind.  Curln’s got a fabulous looking daughter from Collect Call, a full brother from Smart Strike and Sherrif’s Deputy, and numerous other foals either just born or on their way.   Be sure and check out THIS VIDEO of the foal from Collect Call – it’s a heart warmer, especially in light of the news about Zophie’s filly.

Lost in the hoopla over his direct offspring, it seems many have forgotten the full brother to Curlin who arrived Preakness week in 2009.  As a reminder, here’s the video of this amazing little guy from way back then.

There’s also a foal from Curlin out of Home Court (by Storm Cat) that, if you ask me, is the spitting image of dear old dad.

Filly sired by Curlin out of Home Court (by Storm Cat)

Filly sired by Curlin out of Home Court (by Storm Cat)

  • Road to the Roses challenge

In more uplifiting news,  The Road to the Roses is officially up and running.  that’s right – you can enter up to 3 free stables now (10 horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys).  Tencentcielo has started at least one private league I’m aware of called “A dime on the ten.”  Once you set your stable up, there’s an opportunity to associate it with an existing league.  You won’t see me there quite yet as I’d prefer to watch the Sam F. Davis Stakes this weekend at Tampa Bay before finalizing my top ten – especially since Rule, Tempted to Tapit, and the buzz horse UpTownCharlyBrown are all slated to run.

The launching of the contest each year usually coincides with my initial “Derby watch list”, and while there’s numerous other topics I’d like to get to in this post,  I will share a few quick thoughts here.  My top 5 at this moment in time are listed below (can’t give away the whole stable now, can I?  Although it’s probably not hard to figure out).

  1. Vale of York  (I love his stride and would love to see him on dirt this year)
  2. Lookin at Lucky (debated not including a synthetic horse on this list,  I wouldn’t bet him in the Derby, but he’s in my top 5)
  3. Buddy’s Saint (may wind up surpassing the top two)
  4. William’s Kitten (something about this guy I’ve liked ever since a friend pointed him out)
  5. Ron the Greek (perhaps my most controversial addition – at this point it’s just a hunch off that last effort).

Of course, I’m also a big fan of the Tiznows like Tiz Chrome and American Lion.  You can add Dorsselmeyer to that list of horses I’m also excited about.  If you’re not familiar with Drosselmeyer, then fellow TBA blogger Zipse at the Track has a writeup about him that might interest you.  I’ll leave the final two slots in my stable to the imagination.  Suffice to say Winslow Homer would’ve been there had he not been taken off the Derby trail.

  • Rachel vs Zenyatta redux

Another month, another Rachel vs Zenyatta discussion.  Yesterday Bloodhorse broke the news that Rachel Alexandra will not run against Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom.  Almost immediately, a person posting as “Zenyatta” on Facebook began with the trash talking about “ducking” and being “scared” – and a slew of the most insane commentary I’ve ever witnessed ensued.

Question for folks – did anyone ever think she was going to run there?  It seemed a foregone conclusion to me from the start of the Apple Blossom talk that it wouldn’t happen then and there.  Yes, I’d like to have seen it, but I maintain that these two will meet at Belmont or Saratoga later in the year.  I guess what I find appalling is the amount of hatred people have for one of these horses depending on which they love more.  It makes it very difficult to be a fan of both and seems to bring out the absolute worst characteristics of humanity.   I understand the frustration at not getting what we want – but let’s be careful what we ask for.  We want them both on TOP of their game when they meet – so as to limit potential excuses.  Why?  Because one race, unless won by double-digit lengths, is likely not going to settle the issue.  When you think of their respective running styles, and the prospect that Zenyatta would be flying to try and catch-and-pass Rachel in the stretch – you’re not likely to see that impressive a victory margin any way you slice it.

Anyhow, I’m not going to waste much ink (type) on this beyond acknowledging that the meetup the sport needs ain’t gonna happen at Oaklawn in the Apple Blossom.  Is that really such a bad thing?  Is that really where we want this to take place?  I love Oaklawn, don’t get me wrong, but is that really the venue we want the race of the year/decade/century/ new millennium to be held?  I guess I’m just bullish on my insistence this happen at Saratoga, if possible.  Just seems like a befitting setting for two horses of such stratospheric class levels.  Now if only their fans could show some of that same class.  And who knows…maybe we’ll get to add Quality Road to the mix as well?  Now THAT would be a race!

  • Tim Ice loses Summer Bird and Dr. J horses

This piece of news really took me by surprise.  Tim Ice has had Summer Bird and most of his other stock removed from his stable by the Jayaramans.   Having had the chance to meet both Tim and the Jayaramans on Haskell Invitational morning, 2009, at Monmouth Park, they seemed to have an exceptionally close relationship.  Ice speculated it may have been due to his slow start this year, or a disagreement over the direction of Summer Bird.  Whatever it was, it must’ve been something personal, as this feels like a personal disagreement rather than anything outwardly professional.

Ice is, after all, just 35 years old and already has a Belmont Stakes under his belt with Summer Bird.  I really like this guy, so on a personal level I was sad to see him take this kind of hit.  I’m sure the Jayaramans have their reasons though and I respect that they’ve kept the matter largely private.  It might be wishful thinking, but I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail and these folks will reconcile.

In the meantime, Summer Bird is with Tim Ritchey, who is a sensational trainer is his own right, perhaps most famous for his work with Afleet Alex – a horse that coulda, woulda, shoulda been a Triple Crown winner 2005 (just my humble opinion).

Happier Times - us with trainer Tim Ice and the Jayaramans - owners of Summer Bird

So, there you have it – that’s our midweek, snowbound update.  We’ll have a closer look at the Sam F. Davis and the weekend racing action coming up on Friday evening.  For now, be sure and let us know where you stand on the Rachel/Zenyatta question and everything else going on in the racing world.   If you’re feeling really gutsy – go ahead and share your Road to the Roses stable here.  I will have a full disclosure update once I make the final selections.   As you could infer above, there’s technically two spots left in my stable and I’m still debating the jockeys.


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Categories : Curlin, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Oaklawn Park, Rachel Alexandra, Summer Bird, Zenyatta

Snowmageddon picks for the Robert B. Lewis and Donn Handicap

5 02 2010

By the time you read this, yours truly will be proverbially buried in what could wind up being between 2 to 3 feet of snow!  Yes, the storm we’ve dubbed “Snowmageddon” is absolutely hammering the mid-atlantic, and living on the Maryland/Pennsylvania line, we seem to be right smack dab in the cross-hairs.   What better to do at a time like this than sit back and fire up the ole betting account and take part in the action at some locations enjoying just a bit more friendly weather?  This Saturday affords us several chances for major stakes action across the country.  We’ll be focusing on the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in this post.

Grade 1 Donn Handicap – Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – 5:31 ET

The 52nd running of the $500k Donn will be contested by 10 horses going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  QUALITY ROAD is the horse everyone will be watching here.  The son of Elusive Quality was a trendy pick for the 2009 Kentucky Derby before being sideline by injury (truth be told, he was my top choice…before that honor went to I Want Revenge…before being forced to switch yet again, ultimately winding up with Friesan Fire.  I think we all know how that ended).  Many will recall his infamous gate antics moments before the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita that caused Zenyatta and others to have to wait what seemed an eternity before he was ultimately scratched.  The colt rebounded from that non-performance by winning the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope here at Gulfstream last out on January 3.  If you’re looking for a big score here, you’ll need to beat him to cash – which may be a tall order.

The interesting thing about this race presents itself when trying to determine who is likely to finish underneath the favorite.  I like the looks of KISS THE KID here quite a bit at 6/1.  I’m usually fond of the Lemon Drops, although it must be noted this one was defeated by DUKE OF MISCHIEF last out by a neck.  PAST THE POINT could also be interesting depending on what happens up front early on.  DELIGHTFUL KISS should be flying late as the field heads for the wire, and I’m expecting him to rally for a share of the money.

Selections:

  • #4 Quality Road (7/5*)
  • #1 Kiss the Kid (6/1)
  • #10 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Dime Superfecta:  4/ 1, 3, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 = ($10.80)

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  - Santa Anita (Race 8 ) – 4:07 PT

The 72nd running of the Robert B. Lewis is being billed as a two horse race between offspring of one of my all-time favorite horses and sires; Tiznow.  AMERICAN LION roars into town as a Kentucky Derby hopeful searching for graded stakes earnings.  He’s got a favorable post position towards the outside in this rather light six horse field.  His maiden victory at Keeneland generated quite a bit of buzz, and hopefully we’ll be able to answer some questions about how serious of a horse he’ll be today stretching out to 8.5 furlongs.TIZ CHROME is the “other Tiznow” in the field that everyone is buzzing about.  Trainer Bob Baffert has seen his colt thrash the 17 horses he’s faced in two lifetime starts, including a blitz of the Stuka (get it?) last out at Hollywood.  The question between these two is obviously who will get the best of the added distance.  Considering each colt has shown they don’t need the lead early on to score, we appear to be setup for a promising stretch duel here.  Whoever gets first jump just might pull away with the race.

Underneath, I thought CARACORTADO looked playable, largely because of his 4 for 4 record (albeit against lesser competition).  I could also make a case for the aptly named DOMONATION for trainer John Sadler with jockey smokin’ Joe Talamo aboard.  Either way, it doesn’t look like this will be a bank breaking race, unless something unexpected materializes.

I’ll keep this one fairly simple.

Selections:

  • #6 American Lion
  • #3 Tiz Chrome
  • #7 Domonation

Dime Superfecta:  6/ 3, 4, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 7/ ALL = $3.60

Of course, there’s one other big event coming up this weekend that we’ll be squeezing in time for in between epic snow shoveling sagas:  The Super Bowl.  I’m taking the Colts over the Saints in a close one.

As for the other news that the horse racing news coming out of Oaklawn Park, I’ll simply say I’m reserving serious thought about the potential of a showdown between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra until something becomes official.  I just don’t have a good feeling it’s going to happen in the Apple Blossom.  We’ll see though – it certainly would be an exciting start to the racing season for 2010.

Best of luck to everyone!



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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita, Zenyatta


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