Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
Our third edition of the Derby watch list and the first time I think we may have definitively found our horse for the first Saturday in May. The past weekend saw the validation of two runners on our previous Kentucky Derby watch list that were absent from many others. My personal favorite and then #2 ranked horse Odysseus turned in an against-all-odds photo finish victory against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.
Would you believe that even the DRF Derby Watch List that came with the Saturday (3/13) edition of the Form didn’t have Odysseus listed in their top 20 horses? Big mistake. Granted, he had no graded stakes earnings at the time, but they had to know he was a player for the Tampa Bay Derby. Hopefully he gets some more respect this time around.
For all those who still don’t believe that Odysseus got there in the photo finish for the Tampa Bay Derby, check out this picture for definitive proof.
Our previous #10 horse, Sidney’s Candy also triumphed over such contenders as Interactif, American Lion, Dave in Dixie and Caracortado in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. Nice going Sidney! Way to reward my faith in you as one of the 3-year-olds to keep an eye on.
Everybody had Lookin at Lucky in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn, so that one comes as no surprise. Although the performance itself was as impressive as they come. This horse looks like the real deal to me.
So, in case you missed the action (what were you, living under a rock???), there’s a quick recap. Without further adieu, here’s our updated top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings as of 3/14/2010.
- #1 Odysseus
It’s time to make the bold move and place my boy squarely in the top spot. Has he proved himself better than Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya? Absolutely not. But this colt has heart and tremendous upside, and he reaffirmed everything I thought about him with that gutsy victory in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend. Everyone knows I’m a sucker for a good chestnut, and I’ve made no attempt to hide my affection for this colt ever since I first laid eyes on him back in mid-February. He’s my Derby horse. I know he’s green as can be in the stretch and looked like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I remember another chestnut named Curlin who looked green in the stretch at this point in his career as well. I’m not saying he’s Curlin by any stretch of the imagination, but then again I don’t think I’ve seen the likes of Street Sense or Hard Spun in this crop either, so he doesn’t have to be Curlin. Being Odysseus will suit him just fine. Up next might be the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. Go get ‘em, Big Red horse!
- #2 Lookin at Lucky
Baffert trained colt didn’t just come east and pass the dirt test, he overcame a trip from hell in the process to win a thrilling edition of the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008. Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race under him before the Kentucky Derby was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that good faith gamble. This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. Let’s just hope we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
- #3 Eskendereya
Gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment on this update, dropping two spots from the top of the list in our last update. It’s through no fault of his own and certainly should not be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the colt’s ability. It’s just that I’ve hitched my wagons to Odysseus and thought Lucky may have won the most improbable prep race of the season. There’s no shame in being #3. I’d still cover this guy as a win threat if the Kentucky Derby were tomorrow. The son of Giant’s Causeway justly rests on the top of many such watch lists, and you’ll hear no complaint from me with that ranking. Likely pointing to the Florida Derby.
- #4 Awesome Act
Another horse that, like Odysseus last week, you won’t see ranked as aggressively on most Derby watch lists. He looked dominating in the Gotham, even if that wasn’t the toughest prep race we’ve ever seen. I won’t forgive myself all Triple Crown season for having publicly doubted this horse prior to that Gotham performance, and the impression he made on me was strong enough that I’ll continue to mention him as being my 2nd favorite horse on this list. I think he’s seriously underrated by folks that are discounting that Gotham victory. If he shows up in the Wood Memorial, it could pit my 2 favorite 3-year-olds against one another.
- #5 Rule
The horse that has bounced up and down the list all season, looking for some place to fit in. I guess that’s kid of like a euphemism for his place in Todd Pletcher’s barn. Eskendereya has got to be the top dog that rules the roost, but it was quoted that Pletcher was looking for a Grade 1 immediately following his commanding victory in the Sam F. Davis. With Eskendereya possibly headed to the Florida Derby, that could mean Rule comes north and helps fill out a Wood Memorial field that could wind up extremely contentious.
- #6 Discreetly Mine
Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some. He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents. I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, he could offer some value on the tote board. I’d also prefer to see him relax a bit early on.
- #7 Conveyance
With the defeat of Caracortado in the San Felipe this weekend, Conveyance is the last of my infamous Cris Carter types that I’m so fond of. All he does is win horse races, and he came east and won a race on the dirt, so we can’t hold that against him. He may not be taking as glamorous a road to the Kentucky Derby as anyone else, and there are questions surrounding whether the son of Indian Charlie will get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he gives Baffert some options as the major Grade 1 preps start to appear on the horizon.
- #8 Sidney’s Candy
I’ve said all along that this could be “any kind of horse.” The son of Candy Ride got away with some soft fractions in the San Felipe and made a field of big named contenders pay for that mistake this past weekend. We’ll hear distance questions with this horse as well until they are definitively answered (Candy Rides not being known to be classic distance horses), but keep in mind that there’s an exception to every rule. Certainly can’t knock the horse for winning.
- #9 Interactif
The biggest mover on the list who did not run a winning race last out. The son of Broken View gave Todd Pletcher and company another serious Derby contender with a very impressive finish in the San Felipe behind Sidney’s Candy. Versatile runner is effective on all dirt, turf, and synthetics. He made up at least two lengths on Sidney’s Candy in the stretch and lept of the screen for those viewing the race as one to keep an eye on.
- #10 Noble’s Promise
Another non-winner who joins the list for the first time today. Finish just a head behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn. This is a classy horse who has probably been under appreciated throughout the prep season thus far. As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and finished just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado teamed with the son of Cuvee for the Rebel, but everyone from Martinez to Bejarano to Mena to Desormeaux has been aboard before. I thought he ran a great race, and if not for an extremely valiant effort by Lookin at Lucky, we’d be looking at the Rebel winner here. For that alone he deserves consideration for a top 10 list.
Others to watch:
We continue to track a number of colts who did not make the top 10 list. Some notable horses include Connemara, Caracortado, Super Saver (ye’s, he’s on my honorable mention list now as I thought he looked good despite needing a race), Schoolyard Dreams, Jackson Bend, Dave in Dixie, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek. Of course there are others, and the list changes with each passing moment.
Hard to believe it, but next weekend is already Florida Derby time. We’ve also got the Swale lined up at well. Check back later in the week for updates on the major racing action ahead.
Nice list Kevin, Odysseus was incredible, but I think Lookin At Lucky had the best performance so far this year, he blew me away with his talent and grit. Also I think the duo of Noble’s Promise and Dublin were better horses than Super Saver and Schoolyard Dreams. Lucky is still my #1 but I certainly think Odysseus is talented enought to go anywhere right now.
I think Noble’s Promise is better than your ranking but it’s so hard when you’re compiling the list to rank them all accurately.
Conveyance is looking better and better to me recently. I don’t usually fall for front-runners, but I really like him.
They were all incredible. I was a little disappointed in Uptowncharlybrown. He was beautiful, I just expected a little more, but than again they are all nice looking horses. So much for my paddock eyed picks!!
@Brian Thanks – so far I’ve been publicly booed on Facebook by my good friend Chris (tencent) for daring to rank Noble’s Promise even in my top 10. I’m not sure what horse he’s looking at, but I agree with you – he could be further up the list in my mind. I’m anxiously awaiting what Steve Haskin (aka THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND) or my pal Ron Correll has to say about him so that I can validate my own rankings.
@Amy - Uptowncharlybrown is the “feel good” horse/story of the 2010 Derby trail. For that reason alone I passed on him, but I admit he is fine looking. I still think this is a horse who could wind up having a solid 3-year-old campaign, I just don’t think his hype quite matched his ability…at least not yet. It would be fantastic for his connections (and his fans, of which there are many) if the did make the Derby and something magical were to happen….I just won’t be predicting that outcome.
I only have top three listed for my rankings. The thing with Noble’s Promise is that Lucky has beat him now three times. So you would figure that would not change anytime soon. Lucky fits more what you want to see in a Derby horse, he has the toughness factor with the small margin wins over Noble.
I might put Noble in top five though if I did my list further. He does run well in all his races. It gets all bunched up though the further you go down, where most of the horses are in the same league as each other.
Hey Kevin, isn’t it interesting how Odysseus parallels Curlin in some ways? He won his fourth lifetime start by re-rallying by a nose, just like Curlin did in the Preakness Stakes. Obviously Curlin raced against one of the best crops in history and a much bigger race, but the similarities are there.
Noble’s Promise seems like a horse to consider using underneath whenever he faces Lucky. Always runs good, just never seems to beat him in the end.
@Brian – So many similarities with Curlin. Spot on analysis – he doesn’t have to quite be at that level considering nobody else seems to be at Street Sense or Hard Spuns level (yet).
We have made up from the booing incident.
and I STILL don’t like Noble’s Promise. Maybe i shouldn’t have been so sarcastic about it, but i just don’t see how can go any farther than a mile & 1/16. I guess at this point i can’t get mad at you for putting him in the top 10, since no one else has shown anything worthy of being in a top 10. I just don’t like him.
@tencentcielo – LOL, of course, my friend. Of course. You can see what I was dealing with that day over in “that” post here.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you. Trouble is, I have distance questions about so many of these horses.
If I were just ranking my favorites, he wouldn’t be there – but I thought he had enough merit to warrant consideration for now. I’m pretty sure he’ll start in the Derby as well (not so certain about some of these and the other “honorable mentions”).
Okay Kevin. You had a REALLY tough go of it.
(and sorry for not defending you here, but my attentions were divided elsewhere, as you well know)
About the top 10, i just noticed, and it’s probably a coincidence, that you listed all the speed horses in the top 10 together. Kind of fitting, don’t you think?
You know something – I knew you were going to call me on that.
I keep looking for an off-the-pace type (Dave in Dixie? ) to crack the top of the list. It certainly does feel like the First Saturday in May could well setup for that type of runner….then again I keep thinking whoever takes command at the top of the stretch might waltz away with it rather unceremoniously.
I had singled out Lookin at Lucky at the BC in person. So I’ll probably stick with him for the time being. Sidney C looked good but 7 furlongs huh. It seems somewhat wide open at this time, which is actually good I guess. I doub’t there will be any horse to hype to go all the way to Belmont until after the Derby. So it should hold peoples interest hopefully.
[...] Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week. The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice? We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes. [...]
[...] be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings. The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest. Positions 5 through 10 [...]
First 4 look like contenders to beat. I’m still saying WIDE OPEN it will be until after the Derby. Meaning whoever wins Derby might just dominate, unless there’s a bunch of Preakness ONLY horses resting in wait. I’m still Lookin at Lucky.