It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness. The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.
In winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior. Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes. Over on Twitter, Valerie from Foolish Pleasure gave out Mission Impazible as the other Pletcher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Congrats to all of you on your fine selections. As for me, my picks were decidedly le stinky: Ron the Greek, Conveyance, and Northern Giant.
Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.
- #1 Odysseus
In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise. Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible. The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly. One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10. My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse. If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby. He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.
- #2 Eskendereya
The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend. The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years. Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.
- #3 Lookin at Lucky
Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008. This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?
- #4 Awesome Act
Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus. Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend. The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory. Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).
- #5 Ice Box
Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach. Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so? That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now. It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race. If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.
- #6 Mission Impazible
Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list. Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory. The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me. It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire. Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.
- #7 Endorsement
I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes. He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46. In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit. He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern. Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.
- #8 Sidney’s Candy
Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order. Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions). As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.
- #9 Interactif
To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy. So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May. Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface. Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.
- #10 Noble’s Promise
Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list. Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby. He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix. Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):
- Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
- Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
- Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
- Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
- Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
- Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
- Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
- D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
- Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
- Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.
Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby. Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.
Thanks for the props!
Now, while he beat nothing, he did it so stylishly! Only 3 or 4 taps of the whip. (Track record if i heard it correctly)
If you want to put him 7th, fine by me, but he jumps WAY higher on my list. (Can you say 3rd?)
and more importantly, he moves into #1 on my “I don’t give a crap what price he is on Derby day, I’m using him) in front of Eskendereya
Kevin,
I like your list. It is very similar to mine. I also like the addition of Mission Impazible and Endorsement – they were my long shot picks in the Derby preps this weekend.
@tencentcielo – he’s a contender, Chris – looks like you’ve got a legit Derby horse now!
@Calvin Carter – thanks, man – would love to hear your full top ten (or twelve – or whatever you’ve got)! I forgot about tencent picking Endorsement the week before and was almost on him as well. At the last second I decided to bail so that we wouldn’t be “crossing streams” – like in Ghostbusters. I knew right then and there the horse would win.
Click on his name to go this blog or follow this link:
http://classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/
This would be the same Calvin as in the chat room on Friday, BTW.
@Calvin and @Tencent – more evidence of a small world – I just connected with Calvin earlier in the week prior to that chat.
Kevin,
The only questions marks I have about your list are Odysseus and Sidney’s Candy. Of those two, I like Odysseus the most but I need to see him run 9-furlongs.
The rest of your horses I like and I guess my top five would be:
Eskendereya
Looking At Lucky
Endorsement
Ice Box
Awesome Act
Hey Big Man, nice list, but have you noticed this is like reading a bunch of articles on politics and just agreeing with the last one your read. Seems everyone is just moving horses up based on the last race they saw.
I am not even sure at this juncture who will even get in, other than the top 5 or so.
That being said, Esky and Looking at Lucky are my top 2.
My Current Rankings
These are all based on a fair surface on the day of the race and not a mud bowl like last year. If it rains like last year, than we are all screwed as far as handicapping is concerned…. Additionally, east coast bias always gives the Socal horses low speed ratings, until they come to the east coast and trounce everyone like I want Revenge, did last year and Conveyance and Looking at Lucky did this year. Beware of the synthetics horses. They are very good again this year. Conveyance wasn’t going to get a mile and a quarter anyway, so no need to comment on the Sunland. He’s going to be a terrific miler, but not a Derby prospect. BTW, I would place the Sunland Derby winner in the top 12. Nice stalking run today, who had something left.
1) Looking at Lucky – Champ. Even if he doesn’t win the SA Derby, he will win the KD.
2) Noble’s Promise – Depending on the draw, he could place. He’s been facing LAL throughout his career.
3) Awesome Act – Know more in the Wood. But his time was kind of slow, yet got a high Beyer rating, 98 for it? How does this happen? Good old Andrew and his east coast bias.
4) Eskendereya – Needs to beat someone. Florida preps were not as strong as in the past. He appears to be overrated, ran on a speed favoring track. Received a very high Beyer in 106? His only chance is if there is no pace in the Derby, which I believe, if Sidney Candy get’s in and Rule does his thing, along with Discretely Mine, will force a burner on the front end. He simply will not be able to hold off the charge. Besides he’s Fletchers Horse, and he can’t win a Derby anyway.
5) Ice Box – Dangerous closer. Just not sure how good was the Florida Derby? I’m just not sure? But if the heat is there on the front end, this dude will be flying late and it’s Zito.
6) Interactif – Great closing style, but maybe his best surface will be grass.
7) Dublin – Needs to step it up in the Arkansas.
8) Caracortado – Let’s see if the slow pace caused him to lose last time.
9) Sidney Candy – Speed ball. Incredible cruising speed. May not be able to get the distance. Reminds me of the Pamplemousse of last year, Canani’s horse that came up Lame just before the Derby. He was an Incredible animal.
10) Alphie’s Bet – Long Shot special. Deep closer, Dangerous if he gets in and will be a nice price.
In conclusion, this year, based on a fair track, the speed will be there on the front end. So the deep closers will start flying late and pick up the pieces. Look for the dudes that can run late. They will bring you the gold this year…
My Current Rankings
These are all based on a fair surface on the day of the race and not a mud bowl like last year. If it rains like last year, than we are all screwed as far as handicapping is concerned…. Additionally, east coast bias always gives the Socal horses low speed ratings, until they come to the east coast and trounce everyone like I want Revenge, did last year and Conveyance and Looking at Lucky did this year. Beware of the synthetics horses. They are very good again this year. Conveyance wasn’t going to get a mile and a quarter anyway, so no need to comment on the Sunland. He’s going to be a terrific miler, but not a Derby prospect. BTW, I would place the Sunland Derby winner in the top 12. Nice stalking run today, who had something left.
1) Looking at Lucky – Champ. Even if he doesn’t win the SA Derby, he will win the KD.
2) Noble’s Promise – Depending on the draw, he could place. He’s been facing LAL throughout his career.
3) Awesome Act – Know more in the Wood. But his time was kind of slow, yet got a high Beyer rating, 98 for it? How does this happen? Good old Andrew and his east coast bias.
4) Eskendereya – Needs to beat someone. Florida preps were not as strong as in the past. He appears to be overrated, ran on a speed favoring track. Received a very high Beyer in 106? His only chance is if there is no pace in the Derby, which I believe, if Sidney Candy get’s in and Rule does his thing, along with Discretely Mine, will force a burner on the front end. He simply will not be able to hold off the charge. Besides he’s Fletchers Horse, and he can’t win a Derby anyway.
5) Ice Box – Dangerous closer. Just not sure how good was the Florida Derby? I’m just not sure? But if the heat is there on the front end, this dude will be flying late and it’s Zito.
6) Interactif – Great closing style, but maybe his best surface will be grass.
7) Dublin – Needs to step it up in the Arkansas.
Caracortado – Let’s see if the slow pace caused him to lose last time.
9) Sidney Candy – Speed ball. Incredible cruising speed. May not be able to get the distance. Reminds me of the Pamplemousse of last year, Canani’s horse that came up Lame just before the Derby. He was an Incredible animal.
10) Alphie’s Bet – Long Shot special. Deep closer, Dangerous if he gets in and will be a nice price.
In conclusion, this year, based on a fair track, the speed will be there on the front end. So the deep closers will start flying late and pick up the pieces. Look for the dudes that can run late. They will bring you the gold this year…
“But his time was kind of slow, yet got a high Beyer rating, 98 for it? How does this happen? ”
Track was on the dull side.
Ballsy off-the-board placement of Esky. He’s my current #1, which is GREAT for you, because my Derby record…
Hey Kev; Thanks for the giving me “props” for picking Dean’s Kitten. My Sunday blog about the Sunland Derby gave out Endorsement as well at 11-1.
It just goes to prove that “even a blind squirrel can gather a couple nuts.
Insiders must have loaded up on Endorsement late and in the exotics. Two minutes til post, he was 17-1, then closed at 11-1. Plus, the 10th-11th-12th races Pick-3 ONLY paid $102.20 (for a $1) when everyone on TVG and HRTV was singling Conveyance, and Baffert’s M/L favorite in the 11th was up the track (2nd choice won) along with Baffert’s 1-2 choice.
Leave it to me to complain about cashing a $102.
BTW – Poor Ron The Greek (and Stay Put) never stood a chance on that FG oval that favored speed both on Friday and Saturday. No winner came from more than 4 lengths off the lead at any point in any race on the dirt.
Maybe we’ll see Drosselmeyer in the Preakness? He’s 37th on the Graded Earnings List and Elliott Walden said they won’t run him again before the Derby.
How about my top five:
Lookin at Lucky – obvious, he’s a monster, has overcome adversity (outside post in Breeders Cup just missing and clipping heels without losing momentum in Rebel to nip Noble’s Promise)
Eskendereya – beast in the East, fastest Beyer prep at 106 and horses he trounced came back to win and be second in FL Derby – the Fountain of Youth has certainly become a key race
Endorsement – the only other three-year-old to post 100+ Beyer in only his fourth start, the way he overtook Conveyance through a slow half and three-quarter time was impressive, more than Odysseus he belongs
Interactif – may be better on grass and fake stuff, but he’s a grinder that could easily hit the Derby board
Dublin – just like him, maybe because I saw him in the paddock before he broke his maiden at Saratoga, he is impressive and Lukas may be cranking him up slowly
Comments for the others in your top ten
Odysseus – too much too soon and slow closing time in Tampa leave me wondering how good he is – next prep will tell
Awesome Act – did not beat much in Gotham, faces tougher
Ice Box – see Eskendereya
Mission Impazible – LA Derby left me scratching my head, not sure what to make of the race and those coming out of it
Sidney’s Candy – I like and think is underrated, stretches to nine furlongs against Lookin at Lucky, a great race awaits, I hope
Noble’s Promise – liked him on BC day, runs hard every time, at the very least he’ll be there on Derby Day with his earnings
Drosselmeyer will be in the Preakness. Could be a factor as a fresh horse. The preakness overall will be very competitive , possibly as many as 12 – 13 horses running.
[...] the more highly heralded Kentucky Derby contenders. In fact, nearly half of the horses from our 5th installment of the Kentucky Derby rankings will be on display in the form of Eskendereya (2nd), Lookin at Lucky (3rd), Awesome Act (4th), and [...]
[...] into the murky, otherworldly ether of the 3-year-old division of thoroughbred horse racing and attempt to find reason. That task has become easier thanks to the HD broadcasts of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita [...]
In the horse racing world there is a ton of information and different systems available to improve handicapping. Throughout years of reading and research the only true way to become very successful at handicapping boils down to 3 key principles. With knowledge, the ability to adapt to different situations, and discipline to do the work spending time on your selections you will dominate any track you come across. There are so many factors that can affect any given race that some races you can look at a hundred different times and still be dumbfounded.