Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Selections for Kentucky Oaks Day

29 04 2010

Derby weekend is FINALLY here!  Before we get too caught up in the actual Derby madness – there’s a fantastic card of racing for Friday to take in first.  Not only do we get the Oaks, but also 5 other stakes races as well – including the return of the defending Horse of the Year in Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 2 La Troienne (and her new nemesis, Zardana).

The weather figures to be mild for Oaks Friday, although storm clouds are expected for the Derby on Saturday.  If you’re interested in putting your opinion on the line – take a few moments to fill out our Win-Place-Show pool for the TBA over on Google Docs.  It’s a standard mythical $2 across-the-board setup with one horse in each race.

Anyhow, let’s jump right into the thick of things, shall we?

Rachel Alexandra, the defending Horse of the Year, returns against newfound nemesis Zardana in the G2 La Troienne on Friday

Race 6: Grade 2 La Troienne (1:26 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

A heavyweight bout of epic proportions: Zardana vs. Rachel – Round 2!  If team Rachel tries to gun for the front again, I think they are in trouble.  There’s “speed” on the inside (#1 Be Fair), and to her outside (#5 Unrivalled Belle and #6 Distinctive Dixie).  I’d much prefer a stalk and pounce trip the way she demonstrated in the Haskell and Mother Goose last year.  This one looks like a two-horse race between Zardana and Rachel – and it will likely take all the defending Horse of the Year has to make amends.  On the plus side, she’s supposedly training better - and it’s good she has a race under he belt, but Zardana will not be intimidated and must be reckoned with in the stretch.

Selections:

  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (3/5*)
  • #3 Zardana (3/1)
  • #5 Unrivaled Belle (5/1)

Race 7: Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (2:10 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs

Two-year-old Juvies.  Looks like a field that has some talented runners who ran well in their debuts.  What I see here is a wealth of speed, and while I know we’re only going 5 furlongs, the feeling is that it sets up well for Lou Brissie to come from just off the battle up front and pass them all in deep stretch.  I know Twelve Pack Shelly (beyond the cool name) has the outrageous speed figure for the debut, but that  was against Laurel Park maidens, so I’ll make her beat me if I can (lord knows with a name like that she could drink me under the table anyways).

Selections:

  • #2 Lou Brissie (5/1)
  • #9 Twelve Pack Shelly (3/1)
  • #4 Weekend Wildcat (12/1)

Race 8: Grade 3 Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (3:04 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Chamberlain Bridge is lethal at this distance (10 wins in 19 starts), but was handled by Silver Timber last out.  Get the feeling this one comes down to these two as well.  Longer odds horses with a shot here include Starfish Bay, Formidable, Heavenly Chorus, and Mitigation (I seldom toss any horse Alan Garcia is aboard).  Oh, and do not the presence of Garrett Gomez on #8 Barge as well.  Feels like a race I’d like to take a chance on with a longer priced horse, but I still think it comes down to the obvious 2 when all is said and done, and I’ll give the edge to Chamberlain Bridge on the slight cutback in distance.

Selections:

  • #3 Chamberlain Bridge (5/2)
  • #6 Silver Timber (2/1*)
  • #9 Formidable (12/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (3:54 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

Hard for me to be objective here.  On the one hand my 2009 Kentucky Derby pick Friesan Fire is here, as is my old pal Bullsbay for Graham Motion.  Obviously the bull needs some pace to run at, but there’s not a lot here.  Friesan Fire , Enriched,  and Cool Coal Man could all factor into the pace equation.  Bullsbay has been off since the Clark (G2) last November, but c’mon – I can’t pick against my boy here.  Like I said, hard to be objective for me.

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (6/1)
  • #4 Cool Coal Man (4/1)
  • #2 Friesan Fire (7/2*)

Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (4:47 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

The story behind the scenes for the American Turf is the entry of Setsuko, who would’ve been somewhat interesting in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday following his impressive 2nd place finish behind tepid Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.  Alas, while Make Music for Me  and Backtalk are in the Derby, Setsuko is here.  You may remember this guy from my initial KY Derby watch list in early February.  Two other horses I really like in this spot are Workin For Hops, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime and figures to get a decent trip if he isn’t hindered by the outside post in the 11 hole, and Doubles Partner, who could offer some value on the return to dirt with Garrett Gomez aboard.

Selections:

  • #11 Workin For Hops (12/1)
  • #6 Doubles Partner (10/1)
  • #1 Setsuko (4/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (5:45 PM ET) – 1 1/8 Miles

The feature race of the day may well be the best betting opportunity as well.  Most of the attention will rightly focus on Blind Luck, whom I think would make even more sense than Devil May Care in the Derby, but I digress.  That being said, there’s another horse in here I’m extremely fond of – It’s Tea Time.  I gave this horse out as my pick for the Ashland at the beginning of April during a chat on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website (a great spot for horse racing fans, I might add).  I was mildly ridiculed at the time – but I suspect this daughter of Dynaformer earned some respect when she almost nailed Evening Jewel at the wire.  I know she can get the distance of the Oaks.  What I don’t know is how she’ll like the dirt?  This much is certain – she’s my favorite 3-year-old filly at the moment, so you know I’m backing her all the way.

Selections:

  • #1 It’s Tea Time (10/1)
  • #5 Blind Luck (6/5*)
  • #11 Evening Jewel (10/1)

That’ll do it for our Oaks picks – check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for our picks for each of the major races this Saturday – including the Kentucky Derby.   Best of luck to all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Rachel Alexandra

2010 KY Derby Madness Begins – The Bladensburg Races

26 04 2010

Surprise, surprise – another Derby week dawns and another round of shocking news and updates is not far behind.  The updates themselves are surprising – Eskendereya out of the Kentucky Derby – but the notion that such events will unfold this time of year should not be so.  Yet, we seem to do this with alarming regularity – running around in a collective Chinese fire drill as highly touted horses scratch from the list of Derby starters.

In 2009, this came in the form of scratches to favorites Quality Road and I Want Revenge (with the latter occurring on Derby morning and thus being excusable for having caused sudden onset fits of panic).  Now we’re back in familiar territory in 2010 with the announcement on Sunday that Eskendereya is out of the Derby.

Note: no worries – it doesn’t appear that Der Fuhrer has yet received word of Eskendereya’s injury.

The change makes the race more interesting – no doubt about that – but does it make the race any more “wide open” than it already was (or wasn’t, depending upon your perspective)?

It’s not like Eskendereya was going to wire the field, and that his scratch drastically alters the pace setup.  We know we’ve still got speed horses in this race ranging from Conveyance to Line of David to American Lion.  Even the highly regarded Sidney’s Candy has shown proficiency for being on the lead – even if the supposition is that he will attempt to stalk on Saturday.

The way I see things, all we’ve done is removed one layer of uncertainty from the tangled web of Derby week drama.  Regardless of the pace setup, you’re either going to accept one of the lower priced, impressive horses form the West Coast in Sidney’s Candy or Lookin at Lucky – or you aren’t.

There’s ample reason to go in either direction for each horse.  Lucky obviously could use a little luck.  He’s the 2-year-old champion and there’s no question he’s a talented horse, but he seems to get himself into trouble every-so-often, which may not be a good sign on the eve of a field the size of the Derby.

Sidney’s Candy has blown away fields in California running wire to wire over the Pro Ride and turning in impressive late fractions along the way.  How often do we hear that the Pro Ride is really turf by another name?  Doesn’t that make it more impressive that a horse like Sid could wire fields the way he does?  He’s also a fabulous looking colt (and to let the cat out of the bag, I’ll confide here that he’s my wife’s top betting interest for the Derby).  He will, however, also have to do something he’s never had to do at this level or against this caliber of competition – pass horses in the stretch.

Make no mistake about it though – I think Lucky and Sidney are the two horses you’re going to have to beat if you want a Derby payday to remember.  They could well be standouts from a talent perspective when all is said and done.  That doesn’t mean they should be considered “locks” to finish 1, 2 in the Derby, however.

Looking over the rest of the field, I find myself intrigued by Awesome Act.  I don’t think he belongs anywhere near 7/2, but I was already looking at him to have an improved trip when I thought the monster we casually refer to as Eskendereya was still going to be in this race.  If Awesome gets a better trip, AND if he gets more fashionable footwear (dude had all kinds of shoe problems in the Wood), this could be a good ole fashioned British invasion (though technically Awesome Act is an American by birth, having been born in Kentucky and then shipped to England for training).

As Americans, we do enjoy a good British invasion every few years, don’t we?  Most folks think the one and only British invasion involved the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, but this is simply not the case.  It’s a topic I know all too well having grown up in rural Cecil County, MD – a target of not one, but TWO British invasions in our first half-century of existence (the first American casualties to have ever fallen under the “stars and stripes” having happened at nearbye Cooch’s Bridge in Delaware during the Brandywine campaign of 1777 – another American defeat hardly anyone has ever heard of).

Robert Ross - his "Awesome Act" in routing the Americans at Bladensburg left Washington, D.C. open to occupation in August, 1814.

In late August, 1814,  British forces under Sir Robert Ross assaulted American positions on the outskirts of Washington, D.C. at the lopsided Battle of Bladensburg.  The Americans were so routed by the redcoats that the ensuing retreat became forever known as “the Bladensburg races.”

Many reading this have no doubt never heard of Bladensburg or the action fought there – quite simply, with the exception of Custer’s Last Stand, we aren’t a people who like to celebrate our lopsided defeats.  We’re a much more victory oriented society.  We remember Gettysburg, Normandy, and Midway because “we” prevailed in those places.  At Bladensburg, it was our asses that got a royal kicking (quite literally).

The British, flushed with their recent success, advanced into the capital unopposed and set it aflame – driving president James Madison (and his wife Dolly) into the countryside seeking safety.  With the paths to Washington and Baltimore wide open, defeat for the tiny American republic seemed a foregone conclusion, but it was not to be.

Just outside of Baltimore, Major Ross was felled by the bullet of a sniper at the onset of the Battle of North Point.  With his death, the English were thrown into confusion and eventually driven from the field.  During the accompanying naval bombardment of Ft. McHenry at the mouth of Baltimore’s harbor, a young lawyer named Francis Scott Key would observe the cannonade and famously note with pride that on the following morning “our flag was still there.”

If Awesome Act were to somehow stage the upset this weekend – in effect he’d scatter the American resistance and send them fleeing for the safety of Pimlico (Baltimore/Washington) and beyond – rather like the running of the “Bladensburg races” nearly 200 years earlier.  Obviously I’m just having some fun with the possibilities here - as technically the colt is no more “English” than anyone who has vacationed in London or had their picture taken with Big Ben in the background.  I must confess though, ever since that Gotham victory, there is something about Awesome Act that I’m extremely fond of.   I wonder what his accent is like if he neighs something about aluminum?

At the end of the day I’ve got the wife jumping on Sidney’s Candy and the rest of the world seems to be on Lookin’ at Lucky.  I’m zigging when they zag and taking Awesome Act, and of course my good friend and fellow blogger Tencentcielo has been firmly aboard the Endorsement bandwagon since, well, since Radio Flyer came out with an Endorsement themed version of their popular red wagon following the Sunland Derby.

The million dollar question is – who are you taking?  I know Post Positions aren’t assigned yet and there’s still ample time for a million things to go wrong – but at this point you have to have some notion of which direction you’re leaning, and we’d love to hear about it.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy

Odysseus – the Derby dream endeth

14 04 2010

I’ve been silent since the weekend, left to ponder in solitude what might have been and what will never be.  Odysseus, the horse I’ve touted as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender since mid-February floundered in the Toyota Blue Grass last weekend at Keeneland, sustaining an injury in the process and effectively ending the Derby dream.

Unsure of how to approach the topic, I’ve returned to my roots. It was, after all, a couple of Youtube videos from the 2007 Triple Crown season that launched this adventure here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

In an attempt to convey (albeit in slightly humorous fashion) my thoughts and misgivings on the matter, I’m presenting the following video that plays on my favorite Youtube meme other than the infamous Keyboard Cat.

Behold:

Hitler is angry that Odysseus is off the Derby trail.

Evidently it takes a while for news to reach underground bunkers in Berlin where the fury of the der Fuhrer is awaiting his final destruction at the hands of the Red Army. :)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Odysseus

Weekend roundup: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby selections

9 04 2010

Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run.  It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.

Thanks to increased media coverage this year, much of that growing has occurred RIGHT before our eyes, with as many as 2 million tuning in to watch last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby broadcast on NBC.  This weekend the action shifts to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass, and Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

Yes, friends, the Take Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.

Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago.   The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.

Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passing was received with sadness today.  Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday.  While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say):  There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training.  Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)

We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland.  For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.  In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May.  All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #2 First Dude (8/1)
  • #3 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
  • #5 Codoy (30/1)
  • #6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
  • #7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
  • #8 Aikenite (4/1)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)

I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:

You all know how fond I am of ODYSSEUS.  He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race.  It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me.  In fact, it stinks.  If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense?  There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.

The whole thing just feels like a bad idea.  He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track.  Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.

What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic.  I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.

“An odd set, stony quality to it.  As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it.  The way you feel before an ill-considered attack.  Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it.  You must even take part, help it fail!”

Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows?  Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?

Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong.  He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on.  Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.

As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby.  My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.

The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace.  Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.

It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field.  Will it be enough to prevail?  I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.

Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well.  It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts.  With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.

Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward.  Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.

Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO.  Paddy is worth considering for good reason.  All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End.  What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer?  Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.

Selections:

I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity.  What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse.  Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.

I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)
  • #7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)

Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in!  The $1 million Arkansas Derby!  Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking.  The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #4 Northern Giant (8/1)
  • #5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
  • #6 New Madrid (20/1)
  • #7 Berberis (30/1)
  • #8 Line Of David (15/1)
  • #9 Pulsion (15/1)

SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position.  So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.

All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire.  Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end.  With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.

DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE.  I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.

If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS.  I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.

Selections:

  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone.  We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings.  May the horse be with you all.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Interactif, Keeneland, Noble's Promise, Oaklawn Park, Odysseus

The Sixth Sense – Kentucky Derby Rankings: 4/3/2010

4 04 2010

With only 4 Saturdays remaining before the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it’s time to once again wade into the murky, otherworldly ether of the 3-year-old division of thoroughbred horse racing and attempt to find reason.  That task has become easier thanks to the HD broadcasts of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby on NBC last Saturday and the jaw dropping 109 Beyer earning performance of Eskendereya in the Wood.

The victory solidified the colt with the Egyptian name as the top contender and most likely favorite for the first Saturday in May.  That doesn’t mean it’s a slam dunk that Eskendereya will win the Derby. Remember, just last year we were in virtually the same position after I Want Revenge wowed us with an impressive Wood victory only to wind up being a late scratch on Derby morning. For now though, it’s clear that Eskendereya deserves to be considered the top of the class.

Of course, Eskendereya wasn’t the only show in town.  American Lion wired the field to win the Grade 3 Illinois Derby, and across the nation in California Sidney’s Candy turned in another brilliant front running performance that featured an odd, nearly catastrophic ride for the favored Lookin at Lucky.  Evidently Garrett Gomez went after Victor Espinoza (who was aboard longshot Who’s Up) after the race.

The victories by American Lion, Eskendereya, and Sidney’s Candy bring up another question for the 2010 Derby:  pace.  So far it looks like any number of contenders on the graded earnings list will be on-or-near the lead.  At some point that has to factor into the equation when ranking these horses.

That being said, I’m not sure if it’s going to matter, and there’s simply no way to ignore the dominating nature of Eskendereya’s performance.  Without hesitation, I move the colt above my beloved Odysseus in this, our sixth installment of the Derby rankings.

  • #1 Eskendereya

Monster performances in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Wood Memorial establish the Todd Pletcher trained son of Giant’s Causeway as THE horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.  Worthy favorite.  If there is a weakness, perhaps he will be more vulnerable with a hotly contested pace?

  • #2 Odysseus

I may be dropping him from my top spot, and a sub-par performance this weekend could leave him on the outside of the top 20 on the graded earnings list headed to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m loyal to my favorites – and there’s been something about this chestnut beauty that has stirred my emotions since I first spotted him after the allowance score at Tampa Bay Downs.  I’d prefer the Arkansas Derby be his final prep, but it looks like he could face Interactif and Aikenite in the Toyota Blue Grass instead.  God go with you wherever your travels may take you, big red horse!

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Like many, there was a moment in the Santa Anita Derby where I feared for the sport that one of our bigger 3-year-old “stars” was injured.  Thankfully, it appears that the son of Smart Strike came out of the race okay, although his jockey was a bit fired up.  Bob Baffert didn’t get the trip he wanted in the Santa Anita Derby, but the gutsy way  he fought back for 3rd after being nearly stopped on the track showed what this horse is all about.  He may be a bit crazy in the head, but he’s the kind of guy you’re always going to respect in a fight.

  • #4 Sidney’s Candy

It feels almost sacrilegious to rank a “speed horse” 4th on this list.  I’m sure there will be numerous folks pointing out the folly for having done so, without even reading what follows.  The fact of the matter is that I’m not putting this horse here because I believe he has the 4th best shot to win the Derby.  I’m putting him here because I think he has earned the right to be ranked among the top 4 horses prepping for the Derby.  It looks to me like the son of Candy Ride can answer the distance question, but the way the Derby is shaping up the pace scenario will likely be an altogether different story.

  • #5  Ice Box

Given the potential pace setup for the Kentucky Derby, it seems as though a Grade 1 winning closer belongs in the top 5, even if he was dusted by Eskendereya in the G2 Fountain of Youth in February.  He was “off slow” that day, and may be in better form now.  His running style, his experience against the likely favorite, his G1 prestige, and the likely pace outlook for Kentucky Derby 136 all suggest he belongs in the discussion.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

The more I see of this colt, the more I like him.  Won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46 over Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit.  The  son of Distorted Humor seems to be peaking at the right time and I love his fast improving form.  Some question whether he is headed for a bounce in the KY Derby, and have suggested he’s just an inflated G3 winner (like Odysseus), but my gut tells me this is a better race horse than many yet realize.

  • #8 Awesome Act

Had the second worst trip of the day last Saturday (with top honors going to Lookin at Lucky) after being under a stranglehold from jockey Julien Leparoux in the early goings of the G1 Wood Memorial.  My guess is they were trying to force him to relax some early on.  A gorgeous looking son of Awesome Again, on his best stuff I think he’s a much better horse than what we saw, despite the thrashing the entire field took.  Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams, and Awesome Act were fighting it out for the minor awards, and sir Awesome was able to hang on for show.  Needs a better trip to be a player in the Derby.

  • #9 Noble’s Promise

Will likely continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield horse of this list that gets no respect from outsiders.  In fact, I think he and Jackson Bend are the most routinely disrespected horses  of the entire crop, which is a shame considering these two give it their all each time they touch the track.  Yes, smart guys, I know he’s a son of Cuvee, but evidently someone has forgotten to tell this horse he doesn’t belong.  Over $700k  in graded earnings and a shot in the G1 Arkansas Derby up next.

  • #10 Interactif

Stays on this list because we need another off-the-pace type and he probably has as good a shot as any to win the Blue Grass this weekend and further solidify his graded earnings qualifications. I toyed with adding Setsuko to the top 10, but it looks like that one is “on the bubble.”  This colt could make some noise on national television this weekend.

Honorable Mention:

  • Blind Luck – likely Oaks favorite would seem to make some sense if they gave her a shot – she could probably beat many of these colts.
  • Jackson Bend – colt just keeps on hitting exactas – despite all the haters.
  • Pleasant Prince – 2nd place finisher of the G1 Florida Derby
  • Super Saver – will look for an improved performance this weekend
  • Drosselmeyer – Had a nice effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby
  • Dean’s Kitten – Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • Setsuko – closed well in the Santa Anita Derby, but may miss the graded earnings cutoff.  Was on our initial top list of the year.
  • Devil May Care – Todd Pletcher says the Bonnie Miss winner deserves to be in the discussion.

Up next up are the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  We’ll have selections for each race available by Friday evening.  Last weekend 8 out of the 9 horses we gave out in our Derby Fever selections wound up hitting the board, with two top choice winners (Eskendereya and American Lion) along with a 2nd choice winner in Sidney’s Candy.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Endorsement, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Derby Fever – Saturday Prep Race Selections

2 04 2010

"Derby Fever" - the Dutchland Blitz apparently have it, how about you?

A trifecta of prep races for the 2010 Kentucky Derby await horse racing fans this Saturday afternoon.  The Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby will be broadcast LIVE on NBC this weekend beginning at 5 PM (ET), offering a rare opportunity for the public to catch a glimpse of some of the more highly heralded Kentucky Derby contenders.  In fact, nearly half of the horses from our 5th installment of the Kentucky Derby rankings will be on display in the form of Eskendereya (2nd), Lookin at Lucky (3rd), Awesome Act (4th), and Sidney’s Candy (8th).

Last weekend’s broadcast of the Lane’s End (G2), and Louisiana Derby (G2) reportedly drew only “modest ratings” for NBC/USA’s “Road to the Kentucky Derby” venture, but I’ll remind critics that those races, while interesting, did not have the “star power” of the Rachel/Zenyatta fest a few weeks earlier, and were in fact a “first step” that we must take in building a lasting interest in the sport.  In other words: Rome wasn’t built in a day – so let’s not act surprised that masses didn’t show up.

This is going to be a long, sometimes painful and most certainly humbling experience as we attempt to grow the sport.  Still, I’d encourage racing fans to do all they can this weekend to drum up interest in our game.  We MUST capitalize on opportunities to bask in the limelight.

Moving on to the races themselves, we’ll start with the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct.

Grade 1 Wood Memorial – Aqueduct – Race 9 (5:12 PM ET)

  • #1 Most Happy Fella (15/1)
  • #2 Awesome Act (9/2)
  • #3 Eskendereya (5/1)
  • #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5/1)
  • #5 Jackson Bend (4/1)
  • #6 Carnivore (20/1)

A small, but interesting field awaits bettors jumping into the Wood Memorial fray.  I’ll say this up front, this probably isn’t a good betting race, as ESKENDEREYA is sure to get absolutely hammered at the windows and is without question the horse to beat.  Everyone knows I’m in love with Odysseus, but one of the more subtle things I’ve been doing in our Derby rankings is placing ESKENDEREYA just ahead of Lookin at Lucky.  I do that because in my heart-of-hearts, I firmly believe this is the best 3-year-old in training at the moment (despite my affection for Odysseus).

I see this race as pretty simple.  ESKENDEREYA will sit just off of the early pace, which should come from MOST HAPPY FELLA, and will get first jump on that one as the field enters the turn, looking to pull away in the stretch.  My guess is that they won’t ask the horse for all he’s got in the stretch, even if pressed, as they’ll have their eyes firmly set on a stretch run a month from now at Churchill Downs as the primary target.

If you’re looking to beat the favorite, I thought one colt had a fairly good chance here.  AWESOME ACT is an absolutely beautiful son of Awesome Again that I at first publicly dismissed prior to the Grade 3 Gotham.  I’ll never make that mistake again, as I think this horse has an explosive turn-of-foot that should give him a chance in any race, provided he has some pace to run at.  MOST HAPPY FELLA and ESKENDEREYA should provide that setup today.  The question, of course, is whether AWESOME ACT can catch ESKENDEREYA in the stretch? I’m not sure he can, but if anyone in this field could pull it off, it would be him.

As for the rest of the field, it would obviously be good for an Odysseus fan like me if SCHOOLYARD DREAMS were to run big, but I view him as being a bit outclassed at the moment by the top two runners here.  I could see him hitting the board for a minor award, but I’d be shocked if he pulled off the upset.

JACKSON BEND is a bit interesting here as this horse has been getting the “Rodney Dangerfield treatment” all year.  Disrespected as “just a Calder horse” and one who “can’t get the distance”, all this guy does is find his way into the Exacta each time he races.  Calvin Borel will hop aboard the Nick Zito trainee, who could be somewhat forgotten on the tote board.

Selections for the G1 Wood Memorial:

  • #3 Eskendereya (4/5*)
  • #2 Awesome Act (9/2)
  • #5 Jackson Bend (4/1)

Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita – Race 6 (5:36 PM ET)

We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita, home of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Championships, for the prestigious Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  The field sets up like this (note: odds were not available as of this writing).

  • #1 Posse Power
  • #2 Thomas Baines
  • #3 Who’s Up
  • #4 Sidney’s Candy
  • #5 Setsuko
  • #6 Caracortado
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky
  • #8 Cardiff Giant
  • #9 Skipshot
  • #10 Alphie’s Bet

LOOKIN AT LUCKY has returned to his familiar stomping grounds after a brief foray over the dirt at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Rebel.  We know the son of Smart Strike is a gutsy competitor who will be in every fight, and without question he is trainer Bob Baffert’s top shooter for the Kentucky Derby.  He’s got some decent horses line up against him here, but one gets the feeling he’ll find a way to will himself to the wire on top somehow.  The big question for his fans will be whether or not it winds up being the type of effort he can move forward from headed into the Kentucky Derby?  Only time will tell.

In the Grade 2 San Felipe, SIDNEY’S CANDY got loose on the lead and was able to set some fairly easy early fractions, enabling a wire-to-wire victory over the likes of CARACORTADO and Interactif.  It looks to me like the same thing might happen here.  The only other horse I could see perhaps pressing that pace a bit might be WHO’S UP, while LOOKIN AT LUCKY sits just behind whatever is going on between them.  If so, SIDNEY”S CANDY would seem to be a lock to hit the board, and the stretch run between the son of Candy Ride and LOOKIN AT LUCKY could be a good one.

SETSUKO is a horse I’ve had in my Road to the Roses fantasy stable since day 1, but who failed as the tepid favorite against ALPHIE”S BET in the Grade 3 Sham.  Even so, there’s something about this horse that I like, and I keep anticipating improvement.  Another move forward and he’s right there with the contenders, so hopefully he’ll offer some value underneath in the exotics.

As for the rest of the field, at one point in time CARACORTADO was one of my “Cris Carter” types that “all they do is win horse races.”  Now I’m not so sure.  I’m a bit unclear as to how Scarface stacks up against the bigger named horses at Santa Anita, and while he’s got a great shot to hit the board, he won’t be one of my top selections. That doesn’t mean he won’t be on my tickets, just that he’s not in my top 3 mentioned below.

Two horses who could offer some additional value are ALPHIE’S BET, breaking from the extreme outside (which did not hinder him in the Sham), and WHO’S UP, who has been working well in preparation for this effort despite the long layoff.

Selections for the G1 Santa Anita Derby:

  • #7 Lookin at Lucky
  • #4 Sidney’s Candy
  • #5 Setsuko

Grade 3 Illinois Derby – Hawthorne – Race 7

The Illinois Derby will NOT be shown live on NBC along with the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby, but I thought it was worth adding to the coverage here nonetheless.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 American Lion (7/2)
  • #2 Stephen’s Got Hope (8/1)
  • #3 Boulder Creek (10/1)
  • #4 Yawanna Twist (4/1)
  • #5 Turf Melody (6/1)
  • #6 Dave in Dixie (9/2)
  • #7 Backtalk (3/1)
  • #8 Game Ball (12/1)

I’ll keep things relatively simple here, as I thought AMERICAN LION stood a good chance to take this field wire-to-wire in an otherwise paceless race (on paper).  Hawthorne is historically a speed favoring track, so if the son of Tiznow gets loose, this one could be over before it begins.  Of course, it goes without saying that I’ve never met a Tiznow I didn’t like.

As for the rest of the field, I thought you could make a case for BACKTALK, YAWANNA TWIST, and perhaps TURF MELODY here.  Needless to say I’ll be rooting for TURF MELODY since he comes from my main man Graham Motion’s barn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these hit the board.  DAVE IN DIXIE is another horse I like, but he appears to have some bad luck and may be up against it here from a pace setup.

Selections for the G3 Illinois Derby:

  • #1 American Lion (7/2)
  • #7 Backtalk (3/1*)
  • #5 Turf Melody (6/1)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Aqueduct, Awesome Act, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Santa Anita, Sidney's Candy


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