"Derby Fever" - the Dutchland Blitz apparently have it, how about you?
A trifecta of prep races for the 2010 Kentucky Derby await horse racing fans this Saturday afternoon. The Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby will be broadcast LIVE on NBC this weekend beginning at 5 PM (ET), offering a rare opportunity for the public to catch a glimpse of some of the more highly heralded Kentucky Derby contenders. In fact, nearly half of the horses from our 5th installment of the Kentucky Derby rankings will be on display in the form of Eskendereya (2nd), Lookin at Lucky (3rd), Awesome Act (4th), and Sidney’s Candy (8th).
Last weekend’s broadcast of the Lane’s End (G2), and Louisiana Derby (G2) reportedly drew only “modest ratings” for NBC/USA’s “Road to the Kentucky Derby” venture, but I’ll remind critics that those races, while interesting, did not have the “star power” of the Rachel/Zenyatta fest a few weeks earlier, and were in fact a “first step” that we must take in building a lasting interest in the sport. In other words: Rome wasn’t built in a day – so let’s not act surprised that masses didn’t show up.
This is going to be a long, sometimes painful and most certainly humbling experience as we attempt to grow the sport. Still, I’d encourage racing fans to do all they can this weekend to drum up interest in our game. We MUST capitalize on opportunities to bask in the limelight.
Moving on to the races themselves, we’ll start with the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct.
Grade 1 Wood Memorial – Aqueduct – Race 9 (5:12 PM ET)
- #1 Most Happy Fella (15/1)
- #2 Awesome Act (9/2)
- #3 Eskendereya (5/1)
- #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5/1)
- #5 Jackson Bend (4/1)
- #6 Carnivore (20/1)
A small, but interesting field awaits bettors jumping into the Wood Memorial fray. I’ll say this up front, this probably isn’t a good betting race, as ESKENDEREYA is sure to get absolutely hammered at the windows and is without question the horse to beat. Everyone knows I’m in love with Odysseus, but one of the more subtle things I’ve been doing in our Derby rankings is placing ESKENDEREYA just ahead of Lookin at Lucky. I do that because in my heart-of-hearts, I firmly believe this is the best 3-year-old in training at the moment (despite my affection for Odysseus).
I see this race as pretty simple. ESKENDEREYA will sit just off of the early pace, which should come from MOST HAPPY FELLA, and will get first jump on that one as the field enters the turn, looking to pull away in the stretch. My guess is that they won’t ask the horse for all he’s got in the stretch, even if pressed, as they’ll have their eyes firmly set on a stretch run a month from now at Churchill Downs as the primary target.
If you’re looking to beat the favorite, I thought one colt had a fairly good chance here. AWESOME ACT is an absolutely beautiful son of Awesome Again that I at first publicly dismissed prior to the Grade 3 Gotham. I’ll never make that mistake again, as I think this horse has an explosive turn-of-foot that should give him a chance in any race, provided he has some pace to run at. MOST HAPPY FELLA and ESKENDEREYA should provide that setup today. The question, of course, is whether AWESOME ACT can catch ESKENDEREYA in the stretch? I’m not sure he can, but if anyone in this field could pull it off, it would be him.
As for the rest of the field, it would obviously be good for an Odysseus fan like me if SCHOOLYARD DREAMS were to run big, but I view him as being a bit outclassed at the moment by the top two runners here. I could see him hitting the board for a minor award, but I’d be shocked if he pulled off the upset.
JACKSON BEND is a bit interesting here as this horse has been getting the “Rodney Dangerfield treatment” all year. Disrespected as “just a Calder horse” and one who “can’t get the distance”, all this guy does is find his way into the Exacta each time he races. Calvin Borel will hop aboard the Nick Zito trainee, who could be somewhat forgotten on the tote board.
Selections for the G1 Wood Memorial:
- #3 Eskendereya (4/5*)
- #2 Awesome Act (9/2)
- #5 Jackson Bend (4/1)
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita – Race 6 (5:36 PM ET)
We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita, home of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Championships, for the prestigious Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. The field sets up like this (note: odds were not available as of this writing).
- #1 Posse Power
- #2 Thomas Baines
- #3 Who’s Up
- #4 Sidney’s Candy
- #5 Setsuko
- #6 Caracortado
- #7 Lookin at Lucky
- #8 Cardiff Giant
- #9 Skipshot
- #10 Alphie’s Bet
LOOKIN AT LUCKY has returned to his familiar stomping grounds after a brief foray over the dirt at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Rebel. We know the son of Smart Strike is a gutsy competitor who will be in every fight, and without question he is trainer Bob Baffert’s top shooter for the Kentucky Derby. He’s got some decent horses line up against him here, but one gets the feeling he’ll find a way to will himself to the wire on top somehow. The big question for his fans will be whether or not it winds up being the type of effort he can move forward from headed into the Kentucky Derby? Only time will tell.
In the Grade 2 San Felipe, SIDNEY’S CANDY got loose on the lead and was able to set some fairly easy early fractions, enabling a wire-to-wire victory over the likes of CARACORTADO and Interactif. It looks to me like the same thing might happen here. The only other horse I could see perhaps pressing that pace a bit might be WHO’S UP, while LOOKIN AT LUCKY sits just behind whatever is going on between them. If so, SIDNEY”S CANDY would seem to be a lock to hit the board, and the stretch run between the son of Candy Ride and LOOKIN AT LUCKY could be a good one.
SETSUKO is a horse I’ve had in my Road to the Roses fantasy stable since day 1, but who failed as the tepid favorite against ALPHIE”S BET in the Grade 3 Sham. Even so, there’s something about this horse that I like, and I keep anticipating improvement. Another move forward and he’s right there with the contenders, so hopefully he’ll offer some value underneath in the exotics.
As for the rest of the field, at one point in time CARACORTADO was one of my “Cris Carter” types that “all they do is win horse races.” Now I’m not so sure. I’m a bit unclear as to how Scarface stacks up against the bigger named horses at Santa Anita, and while he’s got a great shot to hit the board, he won’t be one of my top selections. That doesn’t mean he won’t be on my tickets, just that he’s not in my top 3 mentioned below.
Two horses who could offer some additional value are ALPHIE’S BET, breaking from the extreme outside (which did not hinder him in the Sham), and WHO’S UP, who has been working well in preparation for this effort despite the long layoff.
Selections for the G1 Santa Anita Derby:
- #7 Lookin at Lucky
- #4 Sidney’s Candy
- #5 Setsuko
Grade 3 Illinois Derby – Hawthorne – Race 7
The Illinois Derby will NOT be shown live on NBC along with the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby, but I thought it was worth adding to the coverage here nonetheless. The field sets up like this:
- #1 American Lion (7/2)
- #2 Stephen’s Got Hope (8/1)
- #3 Boulder Creek (10/1)
- #4 Yawanna Twist (4/1)
- #5 Turf Melody (6/1)
- #6 Dave in Dixie (9/2)
- #7 Backtalk (3/1)
- #8 Game Ball (12/1)
I’ll keep things relatively simple here, as I thought AMERICAN LION stood a good chance to take this field wire-to-wire in an otherwise paceless race (on paper). Hawthorne is historically a speed favoring track, so if the son of Tiznow gets loose, this one could be over before it begins. Of course, it goes without saying that I’ve never met a Tiznow I didn’t like.
As for the rest of the field, I thought you could make a case for BACKTALK, YAWANNA TWIST, and perhaps TURF MELODY here. Needless to say I’ll be rooting for TURF MELODY since he comes from my main man Graham Motion’s barn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these hit the board. DAVE IN DIXIE is another horse I like, but he appears to have some bad luck and may be up against it here from a pace setup.
Selections for the G3 Illinois Derby:
- #1 American Lion (7/2)
- #7 Backtalk (3/1*)
- #5 Turf Melody (6/1)
Best of luck to all!
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It is good to see national coverage for these races. New York weather will be sunny and warm also. Good for a change
I like Odysseus now that Tapit is not really up to steam just yet. Maybe Tapit will be better later in the year. I like to see how Odysseus does in his next start.
Hi Kevin. I enjoyed your article. I’m interested to see if Alphie’s Bet can get near Lookin’ at Lucky (I really like that horse.) I’ll be at the Illinois Derby. It’s supposed to rain here in Chicago. I’m wondering if that will work toward Backtalk’s advantage. What do you think?
Mike – I’m worried about Odysseus in the Blue Grass. I know he needs a race, but I’d still prefer the Arkansas Derby. I think he’s going to run into a very game Interactif, and if his focus wavers at all (like perhaps it did at points in the TB Derby), he might be in a tough spot. I keep thinking “Dominican beat Street Sense in the Blue Grass” – so I’m not confident. Truth be told though, I actually hope he doesn’t win, as he’s being bet down in the future wagers pools (from 50/1 down to 14/1 as of the latest I saw), so perhaps a 2nd or 3rd place finish will accomplish both getting him the needed earnings AND causing enough to jump ship on Derby day that we get better odds?
@Jennifer – You bring up two GREAT points. The first is that Alphie’s Bet is the horse that terrifies me (as far as my selections above go) in the Santa Anita Derby, as he’s won from the 10 hole before and I’m deeply concerned I may be underestimating him here. It’s not like that would be the first time I’ve done that (LOL).
Point #2 is about Backtalk. Based on what we can see in his form, I’d say the rain would help him. He’s won over a “sloppy” (and slow) track at Delta, and over “good” footing sprinting at Churchill in his debut. He’s the most accomplished “off track” runner of the Illinois Derby field, and being as that American Lion has not had to run on a wet surface that I’m aware of, he should have an advantage.
Note: I’m not a very astute off-track handicapper, although my general rule of thumb is to trust demonstrated form/affinity for a surface/condition that I can see in the PP’s over breeding/pedigree forecasts.
Hope you have a BLAST at Hawthorne! Gorgeous track!
I think I’m rooting for Jackson Bend in the Wood. It’s a tough choice, I love Eskenderaya, but the ones who really fight for it and show guts every time like Jackson Bend really get me. I’m not sure about him getting the distance, but I do like him.
All Lookin At Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby!
Backtalk looks good in the Illinois Derby to me. I’ve liked him since his Bashford Manor win last year so I’m hoping he can step up his game and move on to the Derby.
Backtalk has a HUGE chance in the Illinois, Brian. No worries there. In all honesty, I probably would’ve gone with him if I wasn’t already on chalk with Esky and Lucky in the Wood/SA Derby.
Surprised nobody has mentioned the disco/roller-blade themed picture. I thought that was quite amusing here.
Kevin,
!!!
I’d have mentioned the pic, but I was too busy blowing my nose after reading about all the chalk you picked in the three preps
All kidding aside, if LUCKY and ESKY can hold serve it sets up a classic West/East Derby debate that will capture the imagination of the general public. NBC televising those preps today could prove very timely.
That said, BLIND LUCK was very impressive in the Fantasy and I believe that she’d be a live filly even if she tried the boys in the Derby instead of running in the Oaks. Her future hinges on how impressive LUCKY and ESKY look today.
I did go chalk heavy here, that much is certain. Ironically, if Lucky gets too headstrong today, or Esky stumbles, I’ll wind up missing the “other chalk” in Backtalk, who I was near 50/50 with between he and American Lion (but went with the Lion based on the pace and the fact I was already on 2 other chalks).
Great point about the timing of NBCs coverage – could be the next generation of the “debate” – ironic considering arguably each horse’s best races thus far have been in the old South (Eskendereya at Gulfstream in the FOY, and Lucky at Oaklawn for the Rebel).
Well, let’s review.
Eskendereya had perhaps the most impressive prep race victory since Big Brown’s Florida Derby in ’08 (all due respect to I Want Revenge’s ’09 Wood and several others). Clear cut #1 horse in the country.
Lookin at Lucky had a living definition of “trip from hell” and still somehow fought back for 3rd. From the overhead view NBC showed, he appeared to be moving well late. At first I thought he was hurt, but he willed himself in there for show money. I still think he’s a top contender, but I can’t put him ahead of the monster that is Eskendereya. Pletcher is once again oh-so-close to a Derby horse.
Picks Analysis:
We gave out checkmark winners in the Illinois Derby (American Lion), and Wood Memorial (Eskendereya), and our 2nd choice won the Santa Anita Derby (Sidney’s Candy).
Of the 3 horses we referenced for each race (total of 9), 8 of them finished in the money, including Setsuko who was the biggest value of all.
The only horse we gave out that did not hit the board was our 3rd choice in the Illinois Derby, Turf Melody, who finished 4th.
Despite taking flak on Facebook and elsewhere for ranking Jackson Bend in the top 3 for the Wood, he wound up finishing 2nd.
Stay tuned for an updated Derby list coming tomorrow.
Happy Easter everyone!
I am thinking after the races today that Eskendereya just may be too quick even for Lucky. He seems to have a lot of speed.
I can literally say that my Derby top ten is actually:
1. Eskendereya
(kidding. It’s Lookin at Lucky
2. See Above
3. See Above
4. See Above
5. See Above
6. See Above
7. See Above
8. See Above
9. Endorsement
10. Aikenite
Nice handicapping performance Kevin! Two trifectas and the winner in the IL Derby. Eskendereya was scary good while Awesome Act threw a shoe. Sidney’s Candy took advantage of another slow pace race while Lookin At Lucky had a nightmare trip. American Lion insured the KY Derby will have a ton of early speed (hooray).
Best non-winning performance came from Setsuko. He closed a ton of ground when the race pace got quicker (in the final 3 furlongs).
Would love to see both Awesome Act and Setsuko get in the field of 20.
Setsuko has (sadly) no chance of getting into the Derby. He is tied right now for #23 on the graded earnings list with Odysseus. Awesome Act is #13 right now, $70k in front of #20 Aikenite. (The list i am using does not have any fillies nor anyone else not under consideration for the derby.
Horses who are running in the Blue Grass/Arkansas Derby/Lexington and there Graded earnings rank.
#2 Noble’s Promise $708,000
#14 Dublin $273,208
#15 Interactif $270,000
#19 Aikenite $218,000
#20 Make Music for Me $215,000
#22 Uh Oh Bango $187,952
#23 Odysseus $180,000
#26 Super Saver $163,832
#31 Connemara $138,500
#35 Paddy O’Prado $100,950
#37 Pulsion $80,000
So there is a lot of spots to go.
So
Bunch of spelling mistakes on that post. Sorry about that.
first time, long time here and not much of a blogger, but after watching the fractions in the wood, I cannot accept that performance as justification to throw my money down on eskobar on may 1. There are no big brown or curlins this year and the fractions are pedantic in all these preps. Speed is always there in those opening two quarters at churchill because half the jocks have to call on their horse in the middle of the backstretch or prior there to. The horses that have had preps will respectible fractions will prevail. I hope Odysseus will string ‘em up by their balls next week after :23.3 & :46.2. He’s keyed my wheel if that happens.
[...] for each race available by Friday evening. Last weekend 8 out of the 9 horses we gave out in our Derby Fever selections wound up hitting the board, with two top choice winners (Eskendereya and American Lion) along with [...]
@ Sweet Feed,
Truer words have never been typed. I’ve heard all over Steve Byk’s show Monday how head and shoulders ESKENDEREYA is, espeicially from Andy Beyer’s long lost brother Serling. Frankly, if he wants to go at it SIDNEY’S CANDY owns more brilliant speed than ESKENDEREYA and the tale will be told between those two early on in the Derby with RULE, CONVEYANCE, et al, adding to the heat. LOOKIN AT LUCKY will get a strung out field to chase, just worried that the SA Derby didn’t get him fit enough. One thing is certain, he’s tough enough and always finishes his races strong. I’m still studying ODYSSEUS’ preps…not sure he’s the one especially considering his relatively bare juvenile foundation and how SCHOOLYARD DREAMS had a nightmare Wood result. Toss in the Polytrack question and he’ll be a short price I’d avoid next Sat., not sure he’ll hit the board and could miss the Derby altogether.
INTERACTIF is the one to look for in the Blue Grass…close 2nd to SIDNEY in the San Felipe and can be placed anywhere and kick home strongly.
Nice call in Illinois!