With one week to go until the 2010 Belmont Stakes, it’s time to get back in the saddle and start focusing on the race at hand. Gone are the Derby and Preakness winners in Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky – and gone is most of the national media attention due to the absence of a Triple Crown being on the line.
With the 3-year-old division still essentially up for grabs – and with the bulk of the summer racing action yet to come – might the time be right for a colt to rise to the occasion? Despite the lack of star power, the race itself could setup to be very intriguing. The place horses from each of the first two Classics is back – Ice Box and First Dude. Add into the mix dangerous looking runners like Fly Down and Stately Victor, and fan favorites Drosselmeyer and Uptowncharlybrown and suddenly you have the recipe for a pretty good betting race.
Here we take a humorous look at the plight of racing on the eve of the Belmont. In this clip, an effeminate Setsuko plays the role of Otsu to Ice Box’s samurai – explaining the desperate situation and pleading with the son of Pulpit to return from the race triumphant.
Note: If for some reason Youtube takes the above video down – which would be par for the course with my creations – there’s a backup version saved here on Daily Motion.
In case you’re wondering about the whole Otsu/Setsuko thing – no, I haven’t made one of my trademark faux pas and confused the gender of an effeminately named male again. Think of it as a convenient (for this video clip) play on the fact that Setsuko is usually considered a female name in Japan. I should also point out that no – I do not quite subscribe to the sentiments of Otsu/Setsuko in this video clip as I feel that Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down, and Stately Victor are all capable of winning the race.
Which brings us to the most important part of the post – our first chance to gauge public opinion and see where the loyalties are lining up for the big race on Saturday. You know the drill – sound off like you’ve got a pair!
As the field turned for home in Preakness 135 on Saturday afternoon at Pimlico, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert got exactly what he was looking for – a little luck. On Thursday morning at the annual Alibi breakfast, Baffert had declared that his only desire was to see Lookin at Lucky “have a chance” turning for home. As if sending us all an omen of what was to come, Baffert also joked around while being interviewed during an awkward moment when he noticed that the cameras were focused on the back of his white-haired head. Little did we know that just a short while later the competition would be staring at the back of his Eclipse Award winning colt as the field hit the wire.
Whether it was the highly publicized jockey switch from Garrett Gomez to Martin Garcia, a better post position, or perhaps just a tad of mercy from the racing gods up above on high is anyone’s guess. No matter which way you slice it, ‘Lucky has firmly entrenched himself atop the 3-year-old division, knocking off Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver in convincing style. Despite jockey Calvin Borel’s boasts that Super Saver would win the Triple Crown, the Derby champion could fare no better than 8th – which winds up as the worst finish of a Derby winner in the Preakness since 1970 when Dust Commander was dusted and finished 9th. Of course, Barbaro’s breakdown still stands as the worst nightmare suffered by a Derby champion in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, but thankfully we appear to have avoided the injury bug during this renewal.
It’s amazing how fast the pendulum of opinion in racing can swing in an extremely short amount of time. Two weeks before the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Lookin’ at Lucky was thought of as a “stand out” amongst the 3-year-old division by many racing fans. The colt had encountered trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and fought back for 3rd when many horses would’ve quit, and conventional wisdom held that with a better trip in the Derby, he’d find a way to prove he was the most talented 3-year-old in racing. Then came the debacle of his horrific Derby trip, in which he was essentially knocked out of contention before the 1st turn.
Headed into the Preakness, the racing world was divided into two camps. One thought Super Saver was so far superior that he could not be caught, even on Lucky’s best day. The other thought the colt still deserved a shot and that if he ever got into the stretch without encountering trouble would show the world who he was. I noted in several discussions that this felt quite a bit like 2007 with Curlin and Street Sense, and that though I did feel Super Saver deserved to be favored and given a slightly better chance that I couldn’t help but feel for that underdog role of Lucky, as many of the same angles seemed present this year.
With just a few minutes to post, the odds on the tote board reflected this close division amongst fans, with both colts showing 2/1 odds in the win pool. Super Saver was slightly favored and wound up going off as such at 9/5, but the Lucky faithful seemed to be growing by the minute. When asked, I advised all listening that I was playing them both, as I envisioned them hitting the wire essentially together with perhaps the bob of a head being the difference of separation.
I can only imagine that for his diehard fans the moment Lucky turned for home was eerily reminiscent of my own experience in 2007 when I was there to cheer home Curlin. You KNEW he had what Baffert wanted – a chance – and you knew it was going to take everything he had. Could he summon the will power necessary to chase down the horse in front of him, or would another opportunity to cement his greatness slip passed him? Despite having no personal affinity either way (my favorite 3-year-olds Odysseus, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all having been sidelined with injuries), I found myself subconsciously willing the horse on. I guess there’s that little part of all of us that wants to see grit, hard work, and sheer determination justly rewarded.
When Lucky crossed the wire in 1:55.47, he did so by the slimmest margin since Curlin had nosed Street Sense and Calvin Borel in 2007. The victory also tied Bob Baffert with D. Wayne Lukas for active trainers with the most Preakness victories (5). For Baffert, it was the first since 2002 with War Emblem. Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher, who had only two weeks ago finally got the 0-for-24 Kentucky Derby monkey off his back, is now 0-for-6 in the Preakness.
Of course, some will view the result of the race with a bit of remorse, as Lucky’s victory ensures the continued Triple Crown drought that has plagued the sport since Affirmed took home the coveted honor in 1978. If there’s a big loser from the day’s events – it’s probably the folks at NYRA at Belmont Race Track. By Sunday morning news was confirmed that neither the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winners would be heading to the Belmont on June 5th – assuring an anti-climatic aura of deflated excitement from what might have been had either Super Saver prevailed or one (or both) of the champions this year decided to make the trip.
For both horses though, the decision makes sense. Super Saver just didn’t seem his usual self. Pletcher and Borel commented that they thought the 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness were too short for him. Of course, it would’ve been nice to have heard the information earlier in the week that NBC relayed as the field was being loaded into the gatethat Super Saver had lost weight in between the two races, but I digress. For Lucky the move is equally sensible, as he’s shipped all over the nation and battled ferociously everywhere he’s been. A rest has been earned, and there’s no reason to push the colt further now that he’s validated his 2-year-old champion status.
Arguably the most awkward moment of the entire Preakness was the scene near the winner’s circle as the Baffert clan attempted to storm the old clubhouse for the requisite photo opportunity. Security officials and Bob Baffert could be seen shouting and even using some physical force to push or pull people, sometimes in opposite directions at the same time, as split-second decisions were made as to who was allowed entrance and who had to remain outside.
Oddly enough, Baffert went into the fray several times whilst carrying his son Bode. Former Vikings coach Mike Tice was amongst those allowed in. I guess nobody wanted to squabble with a former NFL player. Personally I should’ve seen the omens as Tice, upon arriving at Pimlico, passed by me with a crowd of Lookin at Lucky’s connections from which several loud “Roll Tide!!!’ cheers erupted at the sight of my “lucky” Bama hat.
Shoulda known, huh?
The surprise of the Preakness has to be considered First Dude. Congratulations if you successfully identified him as a likely pace candidate. For some reason I thought he’d be in more of a stalking position in the early going, and looking back I can already see the error of my ways. The son of Stephen Got Even was widely dismissed at 24/1 (though I’m sure we’ll now be swamped by the Monday Morning quarterbacks all insisting they had him, despite the fact that only a few brave souls touted the horse publicly – including ESPN’s AWESOME Claire Novak- to whom I give much credit and respect for fantastic coverage of the Derby and Preakness), but fought on gamely for a determined second place finish. When the opening half mile clicked off in :46.47, I assumed he’d be fading badly at the wire, but this was not the case at all. ’Dude nearly stole the entire race if not for ‘Lucky’s heart and determination.
With the major players out of the Belmont, the possibility would seem to exist for a rather interesting race being setup behind a front running First Dude, looking to once again steal the race on the lead ala Da’ Tara in 2008, and Ice Box, the dead-late closer that was flying at Super Saver late in the Kentucky Derby. It’s just a shame that most of America won’t be watching due to the lack of a Triple Crown hopeful. That’s okay though – they never seem to know what they’re missing…and maybe there’s something special about the spectacle of horse racing being our own little secret wonder of a sport. Still, I hope that at least some of the fans who beheld their first horse race during the Derby or the Preakness will stick around and become larger fans of the sport. What they saw was just the tip of the iceberg.
On a personal note, I wish to thank the folks fromCBS Radio and the Leffler Agency for having me on-site for handicapping assistance. Ironically, I was positioned just across from our good friend Gary Quill – who was providing similar assistance to another group of distinguished guests. We had a blast – and hopefully helped create a few new fans of the game. My top 3 picks that “couldn’t lose” all came home on top, even if they were heavy chalk (Comedero, Blame, and Rainbow View), and technically I can add NorthPoint Costas to that mix as well. The two horses we didn’t have that would’ve made for a day of EPIC proportions were Taqarub in the Maryland Sprint (pace handicapping having killed me again), and of course Strike A Deal in the Dixie – which continues to be my nemesis since that infamous photo of Amy and I being knocked from the 2008 Pick Six by Pays to Dream first surfaced.
The memory that will stay with me forever actually came during Rainbow View’s victory in the Gallorette. Some of our hosts were “lucky” enough to witness a classic “Kevin moment” as she turned for home. You may recall that I had the honor of covering the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last fall for the NTRA? Rainbow View was my pick in that race and, despite losing, the filly who most dearly stole my heart. In deep stretch she appeared to be in trouble, but true to her class and style, she thundered home in that final furlong to beat Quiet Meadow by a half-length – all the while with me running amok along the turf rail shouting at the top of my lungs “C’mon Rainbow!!! C’mon baby girl!!!! Show ‘em who you are!!!”
The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes
Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us. After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections. As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!
We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes). You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway. Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!
Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day. It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.
#3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting. His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
#4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out. If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
#5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races. His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens. Expect improvement.
Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.
#11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition. Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
#1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver. Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back. On his best stuff he makes sense here.
#2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race. Working like he wants to make amends.
Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes. It’s a Baltimore thing.
#7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
#3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race. Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
#1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at. Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.
Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win. In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion. That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan. I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff. I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.
#4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska. Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
#8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
#7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.
Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint. The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff. Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw. The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday. That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.
#1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field. The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
#3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
#7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.
Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis. I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness. Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics. Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).
#4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field. He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch. He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
#2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out. Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
#13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother! He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole. Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?
Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here. Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007? We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.
Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here. Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer. Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire. Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago). Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.
As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!
Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more. If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.
#8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose. Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
#7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
#10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
#9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him. Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
#5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber. Light it up, baby. Light up that tote board. Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!
Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote. Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.
Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!
Those of you who have followed along here over the years know the drill this time of year. Preakness week is when we go a little crazy and start doing some marathon blogging efforts to try to bring as much attention to the racing action at Pimlico as we possibly can. Fortified with a healthy dose of Black Eyed Susan’s from this morning’s Alibi Breakfast at Old Hilltop, we’ve jumped right into the task at hand and are prepared to offer selections for ALL 13 races on Friday. Saturday’s picks will be coming tomorrow night.
I’m following the standard “quick pick” format here – three selections for each race. Where possible I’ve noted other runners I consider to have a serious chance at pulling off the victory. I’d love to break them all down even more in-depth for you, but that can be a bit taxing with so many races to cover in so little time.
Before we begin, I need to do some quick shout-outs to folks:
To the folks at WOYK 1350AM (in particular Craig Lehman) for having me on this morning to talk horses.
To Ray Paulick- whom I bumped into today and was kind enough to relay that Satish Sanan (owner of my beloved Odysseus) was fond of the satirical parody video I did following the colt’s injury. Made my entire day.
To Gary Quill, who I was able to bump into briefly today but sadly did not get the chance to converse with for long. Gary – the work you do to bring attention to Maryland racing is commendable, my friend.
ToThorofan for giving me the privilege of posting their featured Preakness article.
To all of my fellow TBA bloggers for their continued devotion to covering the game.
To Tencentcielo for never fearing to “give his ten cents” and leading anyone willing to listen to numerous sweet scores
To Carrie Everly of Pimlico for, well, for being Carrie Everly!
To the folks at 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore for allowing me to spend the weekend with them “talking horses.”
To Derek Simon of YouBet.comfor his awesome-terrific Preakness Betting Guide. Derek allowed me the honor of contributing to his Kentucky Derby guide, and suffice to say I look forward to seeing what he puts together for the Belmont.
And of course, last but certainly not least, to all of you for continuing to fuel me with the inspiration necessary to keep this little venture going – especially in the darker days of the year when we don’t have Triple Crown races just around the corner to look forward to. I’m forever indebted – and honored each time you visit.
Now, let us move forward, as the races – with all expedience – shall march upon us! (gratuitous Henry V quote)
Race 1: Optional Claimer $25k N1X – 6 Furlongs
I’m playing to beat the favorite (#2 Yogi’ssplashofgold – 2/1) right out of the gate on Friday as I feel she may be vulnerable at the 6 furlong distance and better suited to 5 furlongs.
#7 I’llthinkofsumthin (5/1) – 7 wins at this distance, that’s 7 more than the favorite
#6 Tidal Change (9/2) – has a tendency to weaken late but might find this field easier to handle than last she faced
#5 Lucky You (3/1) – might best to use on the bottom of Exactas/Trifectas
Race 2: State-Bred Handicap $7500s – 1 1/16 Miles
Very tough race to decipher – even tougher to drill down to 3 selections. Lots of evenly matched horses on paper.
#6 Swear Allegiance (9/2) – has a “win every other race” style, and thus is due
#2 May One (4/1) – has fired from a 45+ day layoff in the past
#4 Goodness Greatness (8/1) – on her best stuff she can dance with these girls
A dreaded “turf sprint”. These are not my strong suit. I’ll favor the runners from the inside post positions for now. Also note that the favorite, #9 Norjac (8/5), has never been on the grass before, so I’ll play against the chalk once again here.
#1 Titanic Win (7/2) – have to excuse last race when he broke from the 11 hole
#3 California Cool (9/2) – ran into traffic trouble last out, before that had 3 straight wins
#2 Skeleton Crew (4/1) – had his career best effort at this track/distance in May ’09
Race 4: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
While this might seem a nondescript race at first glance, do note the appearance of numerous female jockey “legends.” This one could get crazy as many of them haven’t raced in quite some time.
#5 Rasher (5/2) – should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs today
#11 Sun Dance Moon (5/1) – son of Malibu Moon must handle winners for 1st time
#2 Cleric (5/1) – has been in-the-money in 8 of 10 lifetime starts
Race 5: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
Unfortunately I’m on the chalk here in back-to-back races as far as my top selection goes. Those responsible have been sacked.
#6 Back to Therapy (2/1) – riding 3 straight victories and has won 4 of last 5 starts
#8 Got It Covered (4/1) – Very nice debut victory last out and working like she means business
#3 Alwaysacontest (7/2) – switches to successful trainer (Damon Dilodovico)
Race 6: The Very One Stakes ($70k) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Another blasted turf sprint! My one rule of thumb in turf sprints is to always play anything trainer Linda Rice sends to post – and lucky for me she has 3 of them in this race! I’d cover ‘em all. Nobody gets horses ready for a turf sprint like Linda Rice.
#5 Ahvee’s Destiny (5/1) – expecting improvement in 2nd start of campaign and with Ramon Dominguez aboard
#11 Lady Rizzi (8/1) – offers solid value on the morning line and fits with this group nicely on paper – but must overcome outside post position draw
#7 Canadian Ballet (3/1) – has speed – which comes in handy in turf sprints
Race 7: Allowance $30k N1X – 1 1/16 Miles
One of the lease exciting races of the day to handicap. The only horses I fear could beat my picks here are the 3 inside runners in posts 1, 2, and 3.
#7 Squabble (4/1) – hard trying type gets services of jockey Javier Castellano
#6 Lily Quatorze (8/1) – her daddy won the 1996 Preakness. I’ve no clue who her dam was
#5 Pink Sand (7/2) – have a feeling she’ll like the slight cutback in distance today
The name says it all – another turf sprint and I’ve no Linda Rice horses to bank on. Whatever shall we do? Honestly, I could make a case for half the field in this one. The picks below are the ones I thought offered the most favorable risk/reward potential.
#11 Sacred Journey (10/1) – rolling the dice here, but he was close against Vineyard Haven last out, who would be heavily favored in this race
#10 Central City (5/1) – Just missed at the Grade 3 level last out vs. better
#1 Cardashian (12/1) – think it’s a mistake if he goes off anywhere near 12/1
The Ms. Preakness is usually a fun race to watch, even if it’s not the best wagering opportunity on the card.
#3 Cuff Me (4/5*) – the “Captain Obvious” selection
#6 Starlite Starbright (9/2) – heavily bet in Stakes debut, but was “caught in last stride” – very capable of pulling the mild upset
#7 Argent Affair (8/1) – has been in the Exacta in all 6 lifetime starts
Race 10: Allowance $26k N1X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Would you believe it…another turf sprint? Must be my lucky day…or something like that…and it’s sandwiched right in the late Pick 4 sequence? Somebody get Mike Gathagan on the phone – NOW!
#6 I Can Do It (10/1) – disclaimer time – I know someone connected with this horse, so it’s a bit of a “heart play” rather than an actual selection
#11 Phosphorescent (5/2) – would be the clear choice if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position
#4 Oh My Me My (8/1) – Hasn’t won since last August, but has many angles pointing to an improved performance
Race 11: The Skipat Stakes ($70k) – 6 Furlongs
I counted 5 horses I thought could win this race. Besides my top 3 selections listed below, I also think #1 Streetscape (15/1) and #6 Lights Off Annie (9/2) are also capable.
#8 All Giving (5/1) – with tons of speed in this race, I put the checkmark on this runner coming from just off the pace
#2 Sweet Goodbye (3/1) – hard not to like 10 wins in 15 starts
#9 Rightly So (5/2) – has been in-the-money in all 8 lifetime starts, but may run into a hot pace battle here – which could compromise her chances
Race 12: Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 Miles
The feature race of the afternoon. Similar to the Skipat, I counted 5 horses with a shot in here. In addition to the 3 runners below, I’d give #5 Harissa (5/1) and #9 Diva Delite (8/1) a puncher’s chance.
#8 Tidal Pool (8/5) – Show horse from the G1 Kentucky Oaks has two solid efforts in a row against the top 3-year-old filly in the land (Blind Luck). Should find things slightly easier today
#2 Seeking The Title (5/1) – sneaky horse – expecting big time improvement as her first try against winners was at the Grade 2 level and she ran very well
#1 No Such Word (7/2) – well beaten by Tidal Pool last out in the G2 Fantasy. Bullet workout on 5/9 at Delaware Park suggests she’s on her toes
Race 13 – The Hilltop Stakes ($70k) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
We end the day with a nice turf route. Hopefully by now we’ve all padded the bankrolls and can skip out early to start looking at the Preakness card for Saturday.
#5 Joharmony (5/1) – Three straight wins AND Javier Castellano on the turf? Yes please.
#6 Smart Seattle (3/1) – Trainer Graham Motion is a class act and deserves a victory on the Friday card
#8 Summer Shade (10/1) – Miss looks like she fits with this bunch. Not sure why she’s listed at 10/1?
Best of luck, and may all your wagers be winners!
I’ll be posting our picks for the entire Preakness card as soon as we return from Pimlico Friday evening.
It’s time, folks. Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on. With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.
Super Saver
As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner. The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel. With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite. All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.
Lookin at Lucky
Stop me when this sounds familiar. A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention. He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel. Shades of 2007, anyone? The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion. Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing. Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky. Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby. The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished. He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign. If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire. Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.
Paddy O’Prado
In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders. On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs, he’d be one to watch again.
Caracortado
I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)? It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart. He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists. However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby). He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast. He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.
Pleasant Prince
His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray. When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite. A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!
Dublin
Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas. You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy. Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way. Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness. I’m expecting improvement this weekend.
Hurricane Ike
I like Ike. The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner. Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore. If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.
Yawanna Twist
Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances. He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though. Stranger things have happened.
Jackson Bend
Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions. So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th. If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.
First Dude
Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm. Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass. Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.
Schoolyard Dreams
A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever. Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride. The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7. Would need to improve to threaten.
Aikenite
We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we? Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible. A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance? He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that. His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward. I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.
Northern Giant
On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star. On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.
So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?
We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning. Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.
Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned. Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.
Yes – that Super Saver. The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend. The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here. The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).
The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year. Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory. This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.
As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best. Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well. The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go. People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering? One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.
Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch. The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change. Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs. Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.
When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead. Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running. Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip. Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.
Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turnafter getting bounced around a bit. There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time. It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky. Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see - which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.
The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile. The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.
Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45. Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.
Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs? Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move; aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.
Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me. Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race. Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?
My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat. If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).
It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness. If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship. Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well. Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise. For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade. I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again. Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?
As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).
The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine. I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas. Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006). Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure). Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.
For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown? What say you?
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