Those of you who have followed along here over the years know the drill this time of year. Preakness week is when we go a little crazy and start doing some marathon blogging efforts to try to bring as much attention to the racing action at Pimlico as we possibly can. Fortified with a healthy dose of Black Eyed Susan’s from this morning’s Alibi Breakfast at Old Hilltop, we’ve jumped right into the task at hand and are prepared to offer selections for ALL 13 races on Friday. Saturday’s picks will be coming tomorrow night.
I’m following the standard “quick pick” format here – three selections for each race. Where possible I’ve noted other runners I consider to have a serious chance at pulling off the victory. I’d love to break them all down even more in-depth for you, but that can be a bit taxing with so many races to cover in so little time.
Before we begin, I need to do some quick shout-outs to folks:
- To the folks at WOYK 1350AM (in particular Craig Lehman) for having me on this morning to talk horses.
- To Ray Paulick - whom I bumped into today and was kind enough to relay that Satish Sanan (owner of my beloved Odysseus) was fond of the satirical parody video I did following the colt’s injury. Made my entire day.
- To Gary Quill, who I was able to bump into briefly today but sadly did not get the chance to converse with for long. Gary – the work you do to bring attention to Maryland racing is commendable, my friend.
- To Thorofan for giving me the privilege of posting their featured Preakness article.
- To all of my fellow TBA bloggers for their continued devotion to covering the game.
- To Tencentcielo for never fearing to “give his ten cents” and leading anyone willing to listen to numerous sweet scores
- To Carrie Everly of Pimlico for, well, for being Carrie Everly!
- To the folks at 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore for allowing me to spend the weekend with them “talking horses.”
- To Derek Simon of YouBet.com for his awesome-terrific Preakness Betting Guide. Derek allowed me the honor of contributing to his Kentucky Derby guide, and suffice to say I look forward to seeing what he puts together for the Belmont.
- And of course, last but certainly not least, to all of you for continuing to fuel me with the inspiration necessary to keep this little venture going – especially in the darker days of the year when we don’t have Triple Crown races just around the corner to look forward to. I’m forever indebted – and honored each time you visit.
Now, let us move forward, as the races – with all expedience – shall march upon us! (gratuitous Henry V quote)
Race 1: Optional Claimer $25k N1X – 6 Furlongs
I’m playing to beat the favorite (#2 Yogi’ssplashofgold – 2/1) right out of the gate on Friday as I feel she may be vulnerable at the 6 furlong distance and better suited to 5 furlongs.
- #7 I’llthinkofsumthin (5/1) – 7 wins at this distance, that’s 7 more than the favorite
- #6 Tidal Change (9/2) – has a tendency to weaken late but might find this field easier to handle than last she faced
- #5 Lucky You (3/1) – might best to use on the bottom of Exactas/Trifectas
Race 2: State-Bred Handicap $7500s – 1 1/16 Miles
Very tough race to decipher – even tougher to drill down to 3 selections. Lots of evenly matched horses on paper.
- #6 Swear Allegiance (9/2) – has a “win every other race” style, and thus is due
- #2 May One (4/1) – has fired from a 45+ day layoff in the past
- #4 Goodness Greatness (8/1) – on her best stuff she can dance with these girls
Race 3: Optional Claimer $25k N2X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
A dreaded “turf sprint”. These are not my strong suit. I’ll favor the runners from the inside post positions for now. Also note that the favorite, #9 Norjac (8/5), has never been on the grass before, so I’ll play against the chalk once again here.
- #1 Titanic Win (7/2) – have to excuse last race when he broke from the 11 hole
- #3 California Cool (9/2) – ran into traffic trouble last out, before that had 3 straight wins
- #2 Skeleton Crew (4/1) – had his career best effort at this track/distance in May ’09
Race 4: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
While this might seem a nondescript race at first glance, do note the appearance of numerous female jockey “legends.” This one could get crazy as many of them haven’t raced in quite some time.
- #5 Rasher (5/2) – should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs today
- #11 Sun Dance Moon (5/1) – son of Malibu Moon must handle winners for 1st time
- #2 Cleric (5/1) – has been in-the-money in 8 of 10 lifetime starts
Race 5: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
Unfortunately I’m on the chalk here in back-to-back races as far as my top selection goes. Those responsible have been sacked.
- #6 Back to Therapy (2/1) – riding 3 straight victories and has won 4 of last 5 starts
- #8 Got It Covered (4/1) – Very nice debut victory last out and working like she means business
- #3 Alwaysacontest (7/2) – switches to successful trainer (Damon Dilodovico)
Race 6: The Very One Stakes ($70k) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Another blasted turf sprint! My one rule of thumb in turf sprints is to always play anything trainer Linda Rice sends to post – and lucky for me she has 3 of them in this race! I’d cover ‘em all. Nobody gets horses ready for a turf sprint like Linda Rice.
- #5 Ahvee’s Destiny (5/1) – expecting improvement in 2nd start of campaign and with Ramon Dominguez aboard
- #11 Lady Rizzi (8/1) – offers solid value on the morning line and fits with this group nicely on paper – but must overcome outside post position draw
- #7 Canadian Ballet (3/1) – has speed – which comes in handy in turf sprints
Race 7: Allowance $30k N1X – 1 1/16 Miles
One of the lease exciting races of the day to handicap. The only horses I fear could beat my picks here are the 3 inside runners in posts 1, 2, and 3.
- #7 Squabble (4/1) – hard trying type gets services of jockey Javier Castellano
- #6 Lily Quatorze (8/1) – her daddy won the 1996 Preakness. I’ve no clue who her dam was
- #5 Pink Sand (7/2) – have a feeling she’ll like the slight cutback in distance today
Race 8: Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
The name says it all – another turf sprint and I’ve no Linda Rice horses to bank on. Whatever shall we do? Honestly, I could make a case for half the field in this one. The picks below are the ones I thought offered the most favorable risk/reward potential.
- #11 Sacred Journey (10/1) – rolling the dice here, but he was close against Vineyard Haven last out, who would be heavily favored in this race
- #10 Central City (5/1) – Just missed at the Grade 3 level last out vs. better
- #1 Cardashian (12/1) – think it’s a mistake if he goes off anywhere near 12/1
Race 9: Ms. Pink Warrior Preakness Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The Ms. Preakness is usually a fun race to watch, even if it’s not the best wagering opportunity on the card.
- #3 Cuff Me (4/5*) – the “Captain Obvious” selection
- #6 Starlite Starbright (9/2) – heavily bet in Stakes debut, but was “caught in last stride” – very capable of pulling the mild upset
- #7 Argent Affair (8/1) – has been in the Exacta in all 6 lifetime starts
Race 10: Allowance $26k N1X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Would you believe it…another turf sprint? Must be my lucky day…or something like that…and it’s sandwiched right in the late Pick 4 sequence? Somebody get Mike Gathagan on the phone – NOW!
- #6 I Can Do It (10/1) – disclaimer time – I know someone connected with this horse, so it’s a bit of a “heart play” rather than an actual selection
- #11 Phosphorescent (5/2) – would be the clear choice if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position
- #4 Oh My Me My (8/1) – Hasn’t won since last August, but has many angles pointing to an improved performance
Race 11: The Skipat Stakes ($70k) – 6 Furlongs
I counted 5 horses I thought could win this race. Besides my top 3 selections listed below, I also think #1 Streetscape (15/1) and #6 Lights Off Annie (9/2) are also capable.
- #8 All Giving (5/1) – with tons of speed in this race, I put the checkmark on this runner coming from just off the pace
- #2 Sweet Goodbye (3/1) – hard not to like 10 wins in 15 starts
- #9 Rightly So (5/2) – has been in-the-money in all 8 lifetime starts, but may run into a hot pace battle here – which could compromise her chances
Race 12: Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 Miles
The feature race of the afternoon. Similar to the Skipat, I counted 5 horses with a shot in here. In addition to the 3 runners below, I’d give #5 Harissa (5/1) and #9 Diva Delite (8/1) a puncher’s chance.
- #8 Tidal Pool (8/5) – Show horse from the G1 Kentucky Oaks has two solid efforts in a row against the top 3-year-old filly in the land (Blind Luck). Should find things slightly easier today
- #2 Seeking The Title (5/1) – sneaky horse – expecting big time improvement as her first try against winners was at the Grade 2 level and she ran very well
- #1 No Such Word (7/2) – well beaten by Tidal Pool last out in the G2 Fantasy. Bullet workout on 5/9 at Delaware Park suggests she’s on her toes
Race 13 – The Hilltop Stakes ($70k) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
We end the day with a nice turf route. Hopefully by now we’ve all padded the bankrolls and can skip out early to start looking at the Preakness card for Saturday.
- #5 Joharmony (5/1) – Three straight wins AND Javier Castellano on the turf? Yes please.
- #6 Smart Seattle (3/1) – Trainer Graham Motion is a class act and deserves a victory on the Friday card
- #8 Summer Shade (10/1) – Miss looks like she fits with this bunch. Not sure why she’s listed at 10/1?
Best of luck, and may all your wagers be winners!
I’ll be posting our picks for the entire Preakness card as soon as we return from Pimlico Friday evening.
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