Road to the Roses 2010

15 02 2010
It’s that time of year again, racing fans.  Next weekend, the first scoring races for the 2010 Road to the Roses fantasy challenge are set to kick off – which means you’d better get those stables filled out and registered now if you want to take part.  For racing fans, this is usually the most highly anticipated of fantasy contests on the year, generating quite a bit of buzz (including a Facebook group that boasts over 2900 “fans” – quite a feat considering only 380 folks on all of Facebook show up under a search for “horse racing” – meaning it must not be a popular interest that people have listed).
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Two leagues that I’m a part of would welcome your participation, if you haven’t registered already.  One is for the TBA group I proudly blog with.  The other is from our good friend Tencentcielo over on the TVG Community.  To get started, here’s the Brisnet PPs for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool.

To access one of the leagues, just fill out your stable horses, jockeys, and trainers and then once you confirm your stable you’ll be asked if you wish to join an existing league.  Just type in the League ID and the Activation Code for the league as noted below.

Any user can create up to 3 free stables to participate in the contest.  The top overall prizes are always fairly sweet, including a trip to the Derby and a future wager.

  • TBA 2010
    • League ID: 3173203388
    • Activation Code: 2247553444
  • A Dime on the Ten
    • League ID: 2071312789
    • Activation Code: 1205335816

We’d certainly love to have more folks in those leagues to make things interesting, so give it a whirl and pass that information along to anyone you think may be interested.

For now, I think it’s safe to assume that volatility will be the order of the day.  To be sure, just a few day ago horses such as American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Lookin at Lucky, and UpTownCharlyBrown were receiving strong inclusion consideration.  I still think any of those can go on to be fine horses, but I sided against Lucky due to the synthetics question, and then passed on the Tiznows (which I KNOW will come back to haunt me) based on their most recent efforts.

Every year it seems like there’s more and more folks coming along who are first time players with some interest in getting involved in the challenge.  For them, I’ve included a breakdown of who I chose and why below.  Of course, it’s also for you more seasoned players, so that I can be reminded of my follies all season long.  A little humility is always good – especially for horseplayers.  Admittedly, I went with my heart on a few of these, but without further adieu, let’s get to the list, shall we?

Horses:

  • Buddy’s Saint – consensus top three Derby candidate, but questions about over who he’s faced are starting to be raised.  Has won going 9 furlongs on the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen.  That counts for something.
  • Vale of York - my current #1 3-year-old colt in training.  Even though he’ll train overseas and may not run in any races that qualify for the challenge, I couldn’t leave him off the list.  He made an impression on me in the paddock for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and when I cashed on him at better than 30/1 a few moments later, suffice to say a soft spot grew in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
  • Blind Luck - seems every year around this time I fall for a filly.  In 2008 it was Eight Belles and Pure Clan.  In 2009 it was Rachel Alexandra.  In all likelihood she will continue to point for the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think she deserves a place at the table based on potential alone.  She may be closer to Stardom Bound in terms of ceiling than Rachel Alexandra, but have we really seen any colts that would scare you away at this point?
  • Ron the Greek – I have to admit, I don’t think I gave this son of Full Mandate enough credit when he first won the Lecomte (G3) over Maximus Ruler.  He’d seem to need a pace in front of him for his prep and Derby chances, but so far that doesn’t seem to be something this crop is lacking.  In fact, so far Ron’s one of the few that looks authoritative coming from off the pace.  I would caution that Giacomo style dead closers don’t usually win the Derby, but in recent memory we do have Mine that Bird and Street Sense doing exactly that.  I’ll roll the dice.
  • William’s Kitten – Some folks may be deceived by the buzz surrounding this horse.  He’s speed figures don’t leap off the page, but if you appreciate a slow, steady, progression of races to build a foundation – the way trainers did in the not-so-long-ago, he begins to make a lot of sense.  Think on this, he’s run very well against Super Saver, Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and that 8th place finish in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble’s Promise was better than you might think.  I think he’s a serious race horse.
  • Rule - probably the trendiest of my inclusions.  Pletcher has himself a horse with some speed in this son of Roman Ruler, and word is he’s headed for a Grade 1 next.  Considering how few opportunities one gets to score points in a Grade 1 during the contest, it’s nice to have a runner pointing for such a race.
  • Tempted to Tapit – Impressive 11 length winner last out took 4 starts to break his maiden and was beaten by another under consideration for this spot, Laus Deo.  Took the kind of explosive move forward last out that you want to see this time of year.  Still has many questions to answer though (distance, can he avoid a bounce, etc.).
  • Drosselmeyer – Another who took a significant step forward last out, and this time it was against winners for the first time, an accomplishment that suggests he’s got what it takes.  The son of Distorted Humor went 9 furlongs in 1:49 and 2 at the Allowance level on January 31st at Gulfstream Park; and he did it rating off the pace.  Looks like a very live contender to me.
  • Jackson Bend –   Took 4 consecutive ungraded stakes at Calder before finishing 2nd to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull.  Could just be  a nondescript Calder horse, but there is something about him that I like, and that’s been amplified by the switch to the Nick Zito barn.
  • Setsuko - I’ll be honest, this horse was nowhere on my radar until TVG’s Matt Carothers mentioned him the other day.  Additionally Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form has mentioned this horse as one to keep an eye on.  He basically wasn’t anything until Richard Mandella put blinkers on him, and now he’s sort of a dark horse for the CA circuit.  Definitely a reach, but this was my final spot.

To fill out my stable, I selected Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher as my trainers, as each seems loaded this year with possibilities, and settled on Julien Leparoux and Garrett Gomez for my jockeys.  I know Go-Go burned me a bit last year by not accruing a ton of points, but he’s too consistently good a rider to avoid in my opinion.

So who scares me?   Well, it’s always dangerous to leave Lookin at Lucky off the list.  Same goes for runners like Eskendereya and Super Saver.  You know it pains me to leave the Tiznows off the list (American Lion and Tiz Chrome), but none of these horses has me worried that much.

The runners I’ll be losing sleep over not including are Laus Deo (nice looking Medaglia d’Oro colt), D’funnybone (who has really only turned in one bad race in the “synthetic Juvenile” last fall, and even then was a very good looking colt until about mid stretch), and any of the Afleet Alex offspring out there who look potentially promising.

The good news?  The first “supplemental draft” is slated for March 15 (with another coming on 4/12), so if I’ve whiffed on a Derby runner there will be two chances to make amends.

Speaking of which – I’ll go on record as saying I still don’t think we’ve seen a Derby winning caliber performance from any of these horses.  The whole thing is still wide open if someone wants to jump up and grab victory.

So what are you waiting for – download those past performances and get to handicapping!  It’s time to get serious about the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep races!

We’ll be back this weekend with previews of the Hutcheson, Risen Star, and Fountain of Youth.





The Fantasy Factor

3 09 2009

Consensus #1 fantasy football draft pick - Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings

Like many of you, I recently completed my annual fantasy football draft earlier this week.  Going through that process and the labor of love that is projecting performances for all of the receivers, backs, tight ends, and defensive units in the league got the ole hamster wheels spinning in the cobwebs of my head once again.  “Why don’t we have something like this?”  

Can you imagine the thrill a horse racing fan might have in knowing that they hold the coveted “top pick” in a fantasy horse racing draft?  Rather than the consensus Adrian Peterson sweepstakes that such a lofty draft position holds in the football world, it would be the Rachel Alexandra show, or perhaps the Zenyatta slot, depending on your loyalties.  

Even if the idea of forming 10-12 stable leagues doesn’t translate quite effectively to the world of horse racing, one could still envision an auction style process where one has to choose between spending a large chunk of their available capital on a horse of Rachel or Zenyatta’s quality, or attempting to fill out their roster with slightly lesser runners capable of racking up victories (and thus points).

If you’ve been paying attention to the posts here lately, most of the conversations we’ve been engaged in surround trying to attract a younger generation of fans to the sport of horse racing.  We’ve tossed out just about everything conceivable from actual marketing strategies pitched to the NTRA to fresh ideas courtesy of our Johnny-on-the-spot guest author Mr. Del Mar.

One thing keeps coming up.  Let’s say we are able to engineer a big event, such as a momentous race between uniquely popular horses or a special day at the track that attracts large numbers of youth.  We’ve seen these already to some degree with the recent innovations surrounding night racing at Churchill Downs, and with some of the traditional tricks of the trade such as $1 beers, free attendance, and trendy music concerts.  All that is well and good as they get folks to take the first step and walk through the door, but do they really contribute to building a sustained fanbase reinforced by substantial numbers of legitimate new “racing fans?”  

The elephant in the room continues to be the question of how to get these fans to RETURN to racing once that special day is over.  How do you make them want to come back to the track next week?  How do you make them care enough to actually contribute consistently either through on track attendance or through regular wagering?  After all, it’s the creation of regular racing fans rather than one time attendees that the sport so desperately needs. Getting them in the door is definitely a start, but you’ve still got to make that sell long term.

The challenges for attracting these fans for anything resembling a sustained period of time are many fold.  Our sport isn’t the most easily accessible.  It’s all but forgotten in terms of national conscience.  In fact, even if we do manage to capture the attention of a few folks along the way, all one must do is think back to when they were first becoming a racing fan to understand the absolutely overwhelming and unprecedented complexity that a prospective new fan is faced with.  It’s enough to turn many a confident would be aspiring horseplayer away.

The good news is that we aren’t the only sport that’s had to ponder such challenging realities.

As you may recall, part of the whole Take Back Saturday idea that I continually reference was to reflect upon the successes enjoyed by other sports and to see if their weren’t some real lessons that the sport of horse racing could learn from, and possibly galvanize into something tangibly beneficial for our own goals. With that in mind, I’ve always believed the sport to attempt to copy is professional football.  Fifty years ago, football was the red headed stepchild of Major League Baseball.  Now it’s the unchallenged monster of American sports, with it’s biggest game the single largest television event of the entire year.

I grew up as a  football fan.  From a young age I was reenacting bone jarring tackles, hurling myself into the family sofa, or imagining being placed in a desperate struggle of infinite importance, like the no-holds-barred 2 minute drives against the Cleveland Browns that John Elway seemed to engineer in the playoffs each year. 

In time I took those dreams to the football field and wound up playing on some pretty darn good teams in my teenage years.  One of the most enjoyable aspects of getting to strap on the helmet and lace up the cleats was that by immersing oneself into the game, you had a magnificent opportunity to understand the x’s and o’s that the average person would never be able to fully grasp. Concepts like disguised blitzes, motioning away from the playside of the offensive formation to deceive the defense, using multiple receiver sets to expose man to man coverage schemes – these were things that seemingly only those who played the game, or only the most diehard of fans, could fully grasp.

Fast forward to today.  It seems that every 12-year-old kid with working opposable thumbs understands how to spot a dime defense, and that it’s inherent weakness is being susceptible to the run.  They understand that balanced formations like the twin Tight End set can be difficult for a defense to scheme against as long as they mix their run and pass calls effectively to keep the opposition off balance.  They know that, apart from short yardage and goal line situations, the effectiveness of the fullback position is going the way of the dinosaurs.

Even more so, an ever increasing number of people from diverse walks of life are intimately aware of entire rosters of players; especially those who handle the ball. It wasn’t that long ago that you could count how many folks outside of the “jock” crowd could name all the Wide Receivers on even the home town team.  Nowadays?  Folks know exactly who is behind nearly every receiver or back in the league. Each fantasy draft I’ve been involved in over the recent years has necessitated ranking the “skill players” at least 40 deep at each position, if not more.

Two factors have contributed to this, and they aren’t ones that it would be impossible to replicate:  the rise of fantasy football, and the proliferation of the Madden video game franchise.

That’s right – games.

Games are the answer to making the learning process fun.  It seems trivial, I know, but it’s the entire reason that so much of our learning process as kids are centered around games.  We learn through play.  They can capture the zest of actual on-field competition while still retaining the innocence of being a purely fantasy adventure.  They familiarize players with the performers, and with the intricacies of the sport itself.  Even better, “fantasy” style games are a gift that keeps on giving as they give folks a compelling reason to care about what happens on the field (or in our case, on the track).   They give you an excuse to watch, and to check the scores.  They provide relevance for checking upcoming schedules and pondering what lies ahead.  For four months out of the year during the football season, every yard, every tackle, and every point scored are followed with absolute devotion.

And what of video games?  Well, we’ve tried them in the past with respect to horse racing, but we’ve never had anything even remotely close to the blockbuster success of the Madden franchise.  I’m not suggesting it’s possible for a niche sport like ours to ever sell anything anywhere near what a football game sells in terms of volume, but there are still concepts we could learn from here.

Madden was an insider, who not only wished to market himself (perhaps more so than even he realized was possible), but also wished to pass on an understanding for the game he loved to a new generation of fans.  What a noble concept!

The franchise itself has now taught an entire generation of people who would otherwise have never had a taste for the complexity of strategies being enacted on the field to put themselves right into the fray, calling plays, dialing in blitzes, executing reads, and directing hot routes. 

Imagine if we could achieve even a fraction of that progress in our own sport?  Imagine if we could harness an entertaining medium for educating people on the complexities of horse racing? 

Gallop Racer - the best horse racing video game series EVER!

The closest thing we’ve had to a racing game capable of captivating folks was the Gallop Racer series from Tecmo. The game had it all – exciting racing action, complex concepts that included distance considerations, surface changes, and class level distinctions.  Even breeding and betting were covered.  All that it really lacked was the professional polish of the Madden franchise.  Where Madden looked like a legitimate NFL product, Gallop Racer featured fictional horses (some loosely based on actual equine greats) and a cartoonish, Japanese-anime inspired interface. 

If someone could ever get the concept right – and I’m convinced it can be done – there’s a chance it could help bridge the gap and facilitate the educational process for would be racing fans.  Horse racing games actually sell quite well in Japan, where the sport is marketed heavily to the population.  Stranger fads have taken hold here in the U.S.  Who knows?  It’s not a cure-all by any stretch of the imagination, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to try.  I mean seriously…if MTV can bring back the Teen Wolf franchise, than pretty much anything should be on the table, right?

On the “fantasy” front, we’ve actually made some progress, as various fantasy related horse racing games keep popping up all over the place.  Probably the best of these, at least in my humble opinion, is the yearly “Road to the Roses” challenge that builds from the earliest prep races all the way through the Kentucky Derby.  Thousands of players participate, and the presentation of the game is top-notch, with just about everything you could hope for (past performances, video replays, analysis) available in one convenient place at the click of a mouse. 

The only trouble is that it’s over once the Derby champion has been crowned, and by then 99% of those involved have long since considered themselves eliminated from any real prize consideration.  Still, it’s a foundation that can be tweaked and improved upon with relative ease, and thus holds great promise.  But why not replicate something like this for the entire year?  Think of the possibilities is all I’m saying.

Just a short time ago “fantasy football” was a game played by a select few, toiling over newspaper copies and manually keeping track of score in leagues that consisted of only diehard and obsessive football fans.  Now it’s an annual right of the Labor Day season that everyone from the diehards, to children, to otherwise uncaring wives and girlfriends participate in and follow with passion.  In many ways that situation reflected our present predicament rather brilliantly, with only a proud few horseplayers remaining where once the bulk of the nation cheered along.  With a little effort and a little luck (not to mention some refined products of our own similar to those that the sports we compete with have going for them), we just might be able to turn things around and right this ship. 

Worst case scenario? We have a helluva lot of fun trying.





Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek Undefeated Jockey and Living Legend

31 08 2009
It gives me great pleasure to once again welcome Mr. Del Mar, otherwise known as Matthew Galbreth, for another guest author piece.  When we last left him, Matt was galvanizing some ideas he’d been kicking around in his head about how to generate renewed interest for the game.  Now he’s returned with another idea for how to connect with the younger generation that the sport so badly needs.
 
 
Without further adieu, take it away, Matt.
 
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The horse racing world has never seen a talent like this and probably never will again.  Bolt Speedman rode a promising young talent aptly named MEGA HORSE, who he also owns, to victory at Hollywood Park June 30th only to retire that same day with a one for one undefeated record.  Maybe some of you have never heard of Bolt Speedman, but many of you probably have heard of Pro Skateboarder and MTV star Rob Dyrdek.  Mr. Dyrdek has many talents and goes by many names, some of you may know him as R&B sensation Bobby Light.  I think his most impressive performance yet came on the day the man wore the soon to be legendary DC silks.
 
 
The entire horse racing industry knows the importance of attracting new fans, horseplayers and owners to our sport.  Recently the industry has been on the right track by trying to attract more youth to our sport. With Mr. Dyrdek involved and the beach culture that Del Mar happily attracts every season we may just get some new youthful fans that challenge the notion that horse racing is a sport for the wealthy and may not be the sport of kings, it’s a sport for everyone.  This is evident in TVG’s Pick 4 Posse and has always been a main staple of my favorite track’s marketing strategy, Del Mar.  Horse racing has been called the sport of kings, long before that and still to this day surfing is also called the sport of kings.  The battle for this namesake finds neutral ground under the white California Flag of truce where the surf meets the turf at old Del Mar.
 
I’m sure some of you are wondering, surfing the sport of kings?  That’s right.  When Captain James Cook first discovered the Hawaiian Islands in 1778 he found what seemed to him some rather strange behavior from the natives.  He saw them standing on strange wooden planks and moving effortlessly along the face of breaking waves.  He was even more shocked to see the royalty of this culture take part in this activity and be for what seemed to him inappropriately dressed for monarchy.  The ancient Hawaiian royals even had surfboards shaped to give them an edge on their subjects and special locations where only royalty could take part in this strange activity, hence he deemed it the sport of kings.
 
I’m on the wrong side of 25, but still hold the tag of a 20 something.  Most of my friends are around my same age and most of them have very different and usually negative opinions about my pursuit of being a true professional horseplayer and my love of the game.  They change their tune when Del Mar is open and ask me for handicapping advice on a daily basis.  Why is this?  It’s because they are not going there for horse racing they are going there for dollar beers, a chance at meeting the lovely ladies in attendance and a day of enjoying the view of the Pacific.  Many of them, especially those who made some money off my plays, end up fans of our sport simply by getting in the door and having a chance to see these amazing equine athletes.  I wish Del Mar was open more often as it seems to be our best chance at making horse racing cool and bringing in some new fans.
 
Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek may have done just as much for our sport in just one episode of his hit MTV show “Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory” as all the top horse racing marketing researchers have in a year.  I would hope all of you try to watch this episode, maybe use the old DVR as a way to return the favor he has done for all of us tune in on Thursday nights and fling this man some ratings, I started doing it for Jim Rome for the same reasons.
 
I have another idea that goes beyond just Mr. Dyrdek.  When the many celebrities that love horse racing attend the track let’s roll out the red carpet, let’s treat them like royalty and let’s try to make them more visible and more vocal about our beloved sport.  Maybe have a Rob Dyrdek day where we invite many action sports superstars to watch MEGA HORSE trounce the competition.  If there are concerns about having so many young people there on one day, I think that can be resolved by giving them a place to go.  Maybe set a section aside for the 20 somethings where they can all hang out in the same area and have a different place for families to go, maybe the infield, here’s another one… how about pony rides for the kids in the infield, a strong presence of security and a daycare facility where the parents can drop them off for an hour or two and enjoy some time as a couple.
 
 
It can be done my good friends and I think the time to hesitate is through, let’s see horse racing break on through to the other side.  The side of major network coverage, the side where the newcomers don’t feel intimidated, but welcomed, the side where there are many different ways to enjoy the track and everyone has a place just for them.  If you see someone new at the track or online at sites like the TVG Community help them, I promise you it won’t cut into your win odds much if any at all and you may have a lot more fun, I am.  This may not be the sport of kings stateside, leave that for the Europeans, we are democratic and united baby.  Let’s see that California Flag and the DC silks more and more, and let’s all give a big hand to Bolt Speedman a brave man who climbed on one these beasts and rode it to victory in his very first start as a jockey.
 
Mr. Del Mar AKA Matthew Galbreth 




Curlin, Rachel, and Cal Ripken: or “how I learned to stop worrying about the Baltimore Orioles and fell in love with horse racing”

7 05 2009

Way back when I first started this site, I contemplated posting something about the video game series known as Gallop Racer, that was not widely known here in the states but did develop a bit of a cult following throughout the life cycle of the now obsolete Playstation 2 video game system.   Somewhere along the way covering actual living thoroughbreds just seemed to have more zest and reader appeal, rendering the idea one that has been stocked away on the storage shelf of ideas for quite some time (queue the final scene from “Raiders of the Lost Ark” for dramatic effect).  That is, until I found this video today. 

Someone (bless their soul) has gone through the trouble of recreating many of the top horses of the past few years, including Curlin, Zenyatta, Big Brown, and Well Armed (no Zarkava?? I guess they only send “virtual Zarky” out on the grass?)  in putting together this fantastic clip of a fictional race between them. 

If you’ve never played the Gallop Racer games, they were a bit too cartoonish in terms of presentation for my liking (I would’ve preferred a more mature “Madden-esque” approach to the menus, etc.), but the racing action itself was highly addictive and the best produced thus far covering our sport.  Horses tended to have particular running styles (front runner, stalker, mid pack, and late closer), as well as preferred distances.   Some thrived at particular tracks.  Their ability to run an all around solid race was heavily impacted by their positioning (run a front runner at the back of the pack and they were sure to get upset), any physical contact with other horses, pace setup, and most importantly, the timing of their jockey asking them for their all out drive to the finish.  Do everything right, and your horse was able to run the race of his life.  Mess up even one of those factors and you were suddenly vulnerable, even on top flight horses, of being gunned down in the stretch. 

This game had it all. If you could get past the anime themed user interface (which was difficult for me), there was actually a deep simulation here that involved breeding, training,  plotting multi-race courses for your thoroughbreds, and even knock-off versions of races like the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic.   Heck, you could even bet if you wanted to.

I won’t spend time harping on some of the inaccuracies here – I’ll leave that to you all.   Instead, just know that if you needed any further proof that yours truly is border-line insane, then know that I actually screamed at the virtual jockey (virtual Robby?) aboard the virtual Curlin to “get him off the rail!!!! What the heck are you doing out in front????”  No doubt the latter was heavily influenced by his being stuck in the 1 hole, and thankfully “virtual Robby” is able to unleash virtual Curlin’s devastating giant strides at just the right time to bring the good guy home on top.  :)

Yes, I’m admittedly reaching a bit for material here, as I’m absolutely on edge wondering if there’s still a chance to see Queen Rachel in the Preakness.  It seems to be getting slimmer by the hour, with Jackson now commenting that he’s not going to rush her into a showdown with the boys.  Can’t say I really disagree with that, although in my heart I want to see her very badly. 

In other random news, a friend of mine clued me into the fact that Cal Ripken Jr., Major League Baseball’s “iron man”  and a boyhood hero of mine (ironic considering Curlin is horse racing’s “iron horse”), apparently took in the Kentucky Derby and had himself quite a day at the betting window.  Evidently he was on local radio here in Baltimore today talking about his experience, although I’m unable to find a source/link to share.   Yes, he had Mine that Bird, and when you hear why it’s enough to make any Orioles fan like myself sick with self-disgust that we didn’t see the same angles and at least have $2 on him.  

The angles?  Mine that Bird was the #8 horse, Cal’s number.   His jockey was “Cal”vin Borel.  Oh yeah, and there’s that whole “bird” aspect, considering Cal played for the Orioles. 

How’d I miss that?  

Here’s a related true story I’ll share with you, and that only my older brother and family could vouch for:

The year was 1983.  I was barely 5-years-old and had just been brought into the fascinating world of baseball card collecting, following in the footsteps of my brother.   I had been raised to be a Phillies fan.  We lived in Elkton, MD, which is torn between loyalties to Baltimore and Philadelphia sports teams, but tends to trend more to the Philly side of the spectrum (get it?  gratuitous 70′s/80′s Philadelphia reference there).  My mother’s family were all Phillies fans.  My father’s family were all Phillies fans.  They bought me hats, plastic helmets, pennants, and anything else that they obviously assumed might brainwash me into their cult of “Phanatic” worship. 

I would have none of this, however.  A true rebel since birth (having been born within the confines of the rebellious state of Alabama) ,  I opened a pack of baseball cards one morning in the family car, and promptly discovered Cal’s 1983 topps card.   I don’t even need the image below to remember it.  I can still see the orange uniform, the upper-cut swing, the boyish youth of a player who seems to be clearly having a world of fun in major league ball. 

“Mom!” I announced.  “I think the Orioles are now my favorite team, and this guy is my favorite player.”  

 Boom goes the dynamite.

I had done the unthinkable. I had announced my secession from the Phillies loyalty I was expected to revere, and fired upon Fort Sumter all in one fell swoop.   As I recall, a strange “don’t worry, this is probably just a phase”  type of silent concern fell upon the rest the family.  Actually it wasn’t quite so dramatic, as my brother had broken ranks earlier and declared his allegiance with the Houston Astros, having been moved by the tears of defeat cried by outfielders Jose Cruz and Ceasar Cedeno during their extra-innings phenomenon that was the 1980 National League Championship Series.  I suppose that makes me more of a follower than a trend setter, but as I recall I seem to have had no idea that the Orioles played in a town just a few miles away, and whenever I heard reference to the Houston Oilers football team I was convinced the sports announcer discussing them was a fool who was mistaking the Orioles for the Astros. 

In other words, my mental aptitude was not yet sharpened.   I was naive,  easily coerced, and seemingly wholly incapable of pronounced individual action.The alarming  pronouncement sent shock waves through the family car that still reverberate to this day.   And, much like my kiss-of-death Kentucky Derby selections, while the Orioles would win the World Series that season over none other than the Phillies, it would be the last echo of their true glory years that stretched back to the late 60′s.  There would be no more championships after that year, only heartbreak,  resounding defeats, and 0-21 beginnings to disastrous season after disastrous season (and 3 for 1 trades for, of all things, a Houston Astros first basemen that we shall not speak of in exchange for future Hall of Famers Curt Schilling, Steve Finley, and all-star pitcher Pete Harnisch). 

In fact, I’m quite certain that at some level my frustration with baseball, by virtue of being an Orioles fan throughout the wasteland that was  the 1980s and early 1990s, is what led me to seek out other opportunities to fill the ever increasing void in my sports obsessed mind.   In time I would take to the football field, and throw myself completely into dreams of gridiron conquest and glory.   We had some fun along the way, most notably when our High School team won the Class 2A North Region championship, before being absolutely annihilated in the State playoffs in front of a record home crowd.   Would you believe I still wake up at  night thinking that we’ve got one more chance to mount a comeback in that game?  Sad but true.   I have that dream about twice a year it seems.

Ultimately though, it was horse racing where I found everything I was looking for.  Competition.  Excellence.  A chance to apply intellectual skill.  Gut-wrenching drama, and of course the kind of excitement that moves you to stand in your seat and scream at the top of your longs attempting to procure a favorable outcome by sheer will power alone, if possible.  

So, in a strange and difficult to follow path meandering through my childhood to early adulthood,  I’ve gone from Cal Ripken to Curlin (and horse racing in general).  Somehow those two worlds collided  this past weekend.  Two iron men who helped navigate their sports through troubled waters just by showing up every day and giving their best effort.   Cal is largely credited with helping “save baseball” during the infamous strike era in the mid 90′s.   Curlin, while not quite the universally unifying force he could’ve been had horse racing been higher on the national conscience, was a horse who brought fans together in a way only a special few can.   Anytime you get groups of fans competing for the right to consider themselves “THE biggest fan”, you know you’ve tapped into something special.  

That something special, at least in my life, has been both Cal and Curlin, and without either of them I probably wouldn’t be posting things here for public consumption.   Indeed, in the words of Jerry Garcia, “what a long, strange trip it’s been.”  Long?  Quite.  Strange?  Unceasingly.  I wouldn’t trade a moment of it for the world though.

Happy Friday everyone – and an early Happy Mother’s Day to any out there that happen to be reading along.   I’ll probably be taking a weekend off here to focus on chores around the house and recharge the old mental batteries in anticipation of a big week coming up.  I’ll be attending the Black Eyed Susan (Friday) and Preakness (Saturday) festivities live next weekend, and it goes without saying that the mental marathon that is handicapping so many races and posting about them is already looming on the horizon as an imposing obstacle to overcome.  Luckily I’ve got some vacation time to burn at work (ssshhh! don’t mention that to Cal or Curlin).

Here’s hoping that when all is said and done we might see Curlin’s future girlfriend, Rachel Alexandra running in the Preakness.   After all, with Curlin and Cal gone,  I’ve got somewhat of a shorage on the hero front.   There’s still a void left to fill.  And you know what?  Watching Rachel Alexandra run away with the Oaks last weekend, I couldn’t help but reflect upon the similarity in terms of emtional feeling between that moment and the ’83 baseball card experience with Ripken.  It was as if I had just peeled open the pack, removed the first card, and stared in amazement at a new hero.  

“Amy!”  I believe I shouted. “She’s the best horse I’ve seen since Curlin!!”  

And thus a new love affair has begun.





I Want Revenge dominating in the Gotham

7 03 2009

 

Jeff Mullins took a big chance shipping I Want Revenge to New York just in time for the Gotham.  We noted him as the “x-factor” in the pre-race handicapping selections, and certainly expected a big performance, but I don’t think anybody was properly prepared for how dominating he would be.  On Saturday jockey Joe Talamo and the talented son of Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) absolutely destroyed what appeared to be a competitive field of 3-year-old rivals, including Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and Imperial Council. 

Mr. Fantasy was away quickly and fought to keep a slight lead over I Want Revenge in the early going setting early fractions of  :23.76 and :48.45.   I Want Revenge refused to back down from Mr. Fantasy and gradually wore him down.  At the top of the stretch the two were eyeball to eyeball.  Suddenly I Want Revenge let loose and bolted to the wire, opening up to an 8 1/2 length victory in 1:42.65

See, apparently you can go East and win on the  synthetics-to-dirt angle.  As we continue to absorb the nuances of handicapping synthetic surfaces, one thing seems clear to me.  Horses that run competitively on synthetics seem quite capable of running big on the main dirt tracks.  We saw this last year with Colonel John, and now we’ve seen it again with I Want Revenge. 

The win figures to flatter the Derby prospects of two other California colts; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Handicappers will have to rethink where they rank these contenders in light of this successful California invasion.  It’s not a matter of if, but rather when a “synthetic runner” from California will win the Kentucky Derby.   That much is certain. 

I Want Revenge returned $8.30  to his backers for the win.  Imperial Council was up late for place but never really threatened.   Mr. Fantasy held on for show. 

Results Chart

Up next for I Want Revenge would appear to be the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 4 .  The colt now has 2 wins from 7 lifetime starts and has been in-the-money in all of his efforts.





Evita Argentina takes on the boys in the San Vicente

15 02 2009

Monday’s running of the 7 furlong $150,000 Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita pits the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina against 9 colts, including morning line favorite Ventana.  The first grade 2 race eligible for scoring in the Road to the Roses challenge, the San Vicente actually sets up more as a sprint than a true Kentucky Derby prep.  Still, beyond The Pamplemousse, Stardom Bound, and Pioneer of the Nile, there’s  many questions as to how the “best of the rest” stack up.  The San Vicente figures to answer some of those questions.

The field for the San Vicente sets up like this:

  • #1 Wall Street Wodner (Joel Rosario/ Bob Baffert) 10/1
  • #2 Cut The Check (Jose Valdivia Jr./ Walter Solis) 15/1
  • #3 Gato Go Win (Michael Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 6/1
  • #4 Evita Argentina (Garrett Gomez/ John Sadler) 5/1
  • #5 Gallant Son (Leslie Mawing/ Frank Lucarelli) 15/1
  • #6 Smokey Lonesome (Isaias Enriquez/ Art Sherman) 8/1
  • #7 Congor Bay (Patrick Husbands/ Mark Casse) 6/1
  • #8 Point Attended (Cory Nakatani/ Eric Guillot) 6/1
  • #9 Ventana (Rafael Bejarano/ Bob Baffert) 7/2*
  • #10 Leedstheway (Tyler Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 12/1

Ventana is tagged as the morning line favorite, but it’s worth noting that at 7/2 it’s a shaky favoritism at best.  The son of Toccet has been ambitiously placed in graded stakes 3 times in his career, and they happen to be some of his worst performances.  He did have a game effort at 7 furlongs in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue finishing behind Azul Leon and Jack O’ Lantern.  He was blown away by Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy next out in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1), finishing 10th.  He dropped out of the graded stakes level to the listed stakes level in the $70,000 San Pedro, but finished 5th (beaten 2 lengths) by many of today’s rivals, including Congor Bay, Point Attended, and Cut the Check.  All of this taken along with the outside post position in the 9 hole lead me to believe Ventana is a play against on Monday.

Looking at the pace setup for the race, Gato Go Win is a likely candidate to be out in front early and often.  The Jeff Mullins trainee has progressed in his last two starts from maiden special weight up through the N1X Allowance runners.  He’s also shown an ability to hold off close looming challengers in mid race, which he’ll have to do to prevail on Monday.  One thing that might play against Gato Go Win is the presence of some other front running types such as Cut the Check  and potentially Wall Street Wonder. 

If the pace shapes up the way I expect, the race could come down to how well Evita Argentina is moving through the stretch late.  As the lone filly in the race, she’s somewhat disrespected at 5/1 on the morning line, yet still looms as the 2nd favorite.  I expect she’ll take some serious play at the windows though, so 5/1 is likely much better than what we’ll actually get.  I’m thinking closer to 5/2 or 3/1 when all is said and done.  Evita Argentina is a classy filly who has triumphed in the Grade 3 Sorrento, placed in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, and chased some filly named Stardom Bound around the track in a couple of Grade 1 efforts.  Put plainly, I think she towers over this field.  Add in the Garrett Gomez/John Sadler angle from a jockey/trainer perspective and I’m sold.  I also like that she’s proven at the tricky 7 furlong distance that gives some horses fits.

Looking over the rest of the field, I see a few runners who could over decent value underneath in the single race exotics.  Gallant Son is an interesting runner for Frank Lucarelli who has seemingly been dismissed on the morning line at 15/1.  Like nearly everyone who was defeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall at Santa Anita, he “just missed”  finishing 7th and beaten 3 1/2 lengths.  After a layoff, he returned by dropping down into the $100,000 California Derby, where he ran into a horse named Chocolate Candy who would be heavily favored in this field.  He probably needed that race, so don’t be surprised if he is able to find some of that mid 90 Beyer form he displayed last fall.  I give this guy a big chance to hit the board.

Leedstheway is another runner who warrants strong consideration. Not only did he progress straight from maiden breaker to $80,000 optional claimer winner in his first two races, but he also managed to slightly improve upon his speed figures.  That’s usually a good indication of talent when a horse can step up in class and run with the same amount of class.   He’ll be compromised by the outside post, which probably wipes out his win chances, but he should be given a very good chance to wind up on the board as well.

The last  horse I think might get overlooked on the board that should be strongly considered is Wall Street Wonder.  Bob Baffert’s got a sneaky duo in here with the favorite Ventana and Wall Street Wonder.  Don’t be surprised if it’s Wall Street Wonder who winds up best of the two.

I see this one as a race worth taking a stab at with the 10 cent superfecta.  It’s an especially juicy race as there is a strong chance of having the morning line favorite finish out of the first two positions on the results chart.  Usually that’s a key to lighting up the tote board and inflating the odds of other runners, so that’s what we’ll try to do here.  I’ll play Evita Argentina for the win, with Gato Go Win, Gallant Son, and Leedstheway in place.  I’ll add in Wall Street Wonder, Point Attended, and Ventana for show, and will add Congor Bay to them for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

(Edit: Upon further reflection, I’m adding #6 Smokey Lonesome to the equation in the  3rd and 4th positions on the ticket, which will boost the total cost of the 10 cent superfecta to $10.80. )

  • $.10 Superfecta: 4/3,5,10/1,3,5,6,8,9,10/1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($10.80)
  • $20 Win #4 Evita Argentina




G3 Southwest Selections

15 02 2009

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

  • Click here for free Brisnet PP’s
  • Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

  • #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  • #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
  • #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
  • #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
  • #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
  • #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
  • #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
  • #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
  • #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
  • #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
  • #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

 

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

 

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

  • $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
  • $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can. 





Road to the Roses stable

11 02 2009

The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.  Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick.  You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months.  I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.

I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog.   Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on).  I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego.  No way I’m making that mistake this year.

Let’s start with the difficult part.  I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today:  Vineyard Haven.   I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this.  He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28.  That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable.   I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.

I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.”  I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.

The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built.  For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire,  Patena, and Captain Candyman Can.  I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however.   The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday.  Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that.   Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right.  Patena and  Captain Candyman Can are risks though.  Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments.  That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt.  Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind. 

  • Old Fashioned (G3 S.West Stakes 2/14)
  • Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)
  • Friesan Fire (G2 LA Derby 3/14)
  • Captain Candyman Can (G2 FOY 2/28)
  • Patena (G2 LA Derby 3/14)

The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can.  I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet).  You may notice from below that another name is missing.  The Pamplemousse.  Why?  Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28.  While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby.  Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.

The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots.  You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings.  Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is.  I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit.  For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well.  He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt.   As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society.  Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago.  If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me.  Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros.  I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with.  Hats off to each of them.

I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position.  I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making.  He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards.  We’ll see.  I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel).  My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson.  I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.

  • Haynesfield (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Mr. Fantasy (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Danger to Society (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Flying Pegasus (?)
  • Hello Broadway (?)

I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers.  Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year.  Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win.  If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year. 

Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez.  Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go  because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez.  Need I really say more?

Hopefully you are all playing along as well.  If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code.  Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group.  Yes, we have a presence on Facebook.  Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group.  I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that.  “What?  I’m hip. I’m cool.”    :)








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