Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Selections for Black Eyed Susan Friday at Pimlico

13 05 2010

Those of you who have followed along here over the years know the drill this time of year.  Preakness week is when we go a little crazy and start doing some marathon blogging efforts to try to bring as much attention to the racing action at Pimlico as we possibly can.  Fortified with a healthy dose of Black Eyed Susan’s from this morning’s Alibi Breakfast at Old Hilltop, we’ve jumped right into the task at hand and are prepared to offer selections for ALL 13 races on Friday.  Saturday’s picks will be coming tomorrow night.

I’m following the standard “quick pick” format here – three selections for each race.  Where possible I’ve noted other runners I consider to have a serious chance at pulling off the victory.  I’d love to break them all down even more in-depth for you, but that can be a bit taxing with so many races to cover in so little time.

Before we begin, I need to do some quick shout-outs to folks:

  • To the folks at WOYK 1350AM (in particular Craig Lehman) for having me on this morning to talk horses.
  • To Ray Paulick - whom I bumped into today and was kind enough to relay that Satish Sanan (owner of my beloved Odysseus) was fond of the satirical parody video I did following the colt’s injury.  Made my entire day.
  • To Gary Quill, who I was able to bump into briefly today but sadly did not get the chance to converse with for long.  Gary – the work you do to bring attention to Maryland racing is commendable, my friend.
  • To Thorofan for giving me the privilege of posting their featured Preakness article.
  • To all of my fellow TBA bloggers for their continued devotion to covering the game.
  • To Tencentcielo for never fearing to “give his ten cents” and leading anyone willing to listen to numerous sweet scores
  • To Carrie Everly of Pimlico for, well, for being Carrie Everly!
  • To the folks at 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore for allowing me to spend the weekend with them “talking horses.”
  • To Derek Simon of YouBet.com for his awesome-terrific Preakness Betting Guide.  Derek allowed me the honor of contributing to his Kentucky Derby guide, and suffice to say I look forward to seeing what he puts together for the Belmont.
  • And of course, last but certainly not least, to all of you for continuing to fuel me with the inspiration necessary to keep this little venture going – especially in the darker days of the year when we don’t have Triple Crown races just around the corner to look forward to.  I’m forever indebted – and honored each time you visit.

Now, let us move forward, as the races – with all expedience – shall march upon us! (gratuitous Henry V quote)

Race 1:  Optional Claimer $25k N1X – 6 Furlongs
I’m playing to beat the favorite (#2 Yogi’ssplashofgold – 2/1) right out of the gate on Friday as I feel she may be vulnerable at the 6 furlong distance and better suited to 5 furlongs.
  • #7 I’llthinkofsumthin (5/1) – 7 wins at this distance, that’s 7 more than the favorite
  • #6 Tidal Change (9/2) – has a tendency to weaken late but might find this field easier to handle than last she faced
  • #5 Lucky You (3/1) – might best to use on the bottom of Exactas/Trifectas

 

Race 2: State-Bred Handicap $7500s – 1 1/16 Miles
Very tough race to decipher – even tougher to drill down to 3 selections. Lots of evenly matched horses on paper.
  • #6 Swear Allegiance (9/2) – has a “win every other race” style, and thus is due
  • #2 May One (4/1) – has fired from a 45+ day layoff in the past
  • #4 Goodness Greatness (8/1) – on her best stuff she can dance with these girls

 

Race 3: Optional Claimer $25k N2X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
A dreaded “turf sprint”.  These are not my strong suit. I’ll favor the runners from the inside post positions for now.  Also note that the favorite, #9 Norjac (8/5), has never been on the grass before, so I’ll play against the chalk once again here.
  • #1 Titanic Win (7/2) – have to excuse last race when he broke from the 11 hole
  • #3 California Cool (9/2) – ran into traffic trouble last out, before that had 3 straight wins
  • #2 Skeleton Crew (4/1) – had his career best effort at this track/distance in May ’09

 

Race 4: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
While this might seem a nondescript race at first glance, do note the appearance of numerous female jockey “legends.”  This one could get crazy as many of them haven’t raced in quite some time.
  • #5 Rasher (5/2) – should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs today
  • #11 Sun Dance Moon (5/1) – son of Malibu Moon must handle winners for 1st time
  • #2 Cleric (5/1) – has been in-the-money in 8 of 10 lifetime starts

 

Race 5: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
Unfortunately I’m on the chalk here in back-to-back races as far as my top selection goes.  Those responsible have been sacked.
  • #6 Back to Therapy (2/1) – riding 3 straight victories and has won 4 of last 5 starts
  • #8 Got It Covered (4/1) – Very nice debut victory last out and working like she means business
  • #3 Alwaysacontest (7/2) – switches to successful trainer (Damon Dilodovico)

 

Race 6: The Very One Stakes ($70k) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Another blasted turf sprint! My one rule of thumb in turf sprints is to always play anything trainer Linda Rice sends to post – and lucky for me she has 3 of them in this race!  I’d cover ‘em all.  Nobody gets horses ready for a turf sprint like Linda Rice.
  • #5 Ahvee’s Destiny (5/1) – expecting improvement in 2nd start of campaign and with Ramon Dominguez aboard
  • #11 Lady Rizzi (8/1) – offers solid value on the morning line and fits with this group nicely on paper – but must overcome outside post position draw
  • #7 Canadian Ballet (3/1) – has speed – which comes in handy in turf sprints

 

Race 7: Allowance $30k N1X – 1 1/16 Miles
One of the lease exciting races of the day to handicap.  The only horses I fear could beat my picks here are the 3 inside runners in posts 1, 2, and 3.
  • #7 Squabble (4/1) – hard trying type gets services of jockey Javier Castellano
  • #6 Lily Quatorze (8/1) – her daddy won the 1996 Preakness.  I’ve no clue who her dam was
  • #5 Pink Sand (7/2) – have a feeling she’ll like the slight cutback in distance today

 

Race 8: Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
The name says it all – another turf sprint and I’ve no Linda Rice horses to bank on.  Whatever shall we do?  Honestly, I could make a case for half the field in this one. The picks below are the ones I thought offered the most favorable risk/reward potential.
  • #11 Sacred Journey (10/1) – rolling the dice here, but he was close against Vineyard Haven last out, who would be heavily favored in this race
  • #10 Central City (5/1) – Just missed at the Grade 3 level last out vs. better
  • #1 Cardashian (12/1) – think it’s a mistake if he goes off anywhere near 12/1

 

Race 9: Ms. Pink Warrior Preakness Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The Ms. Preakness is usually a fun race to watch, even if it’s not the best wagering opportunity on the card.
  • #3 Cuff Me (4/5*) – the “Captain Obvious” selection
  • #6 Starlite Starbright (9/2) – heavily bet in Stakes debut, but was “caught in last stride” – very capable of pulling the mild upset
  • #7 Argent Affair (8/1) – has been in the Exacta in all 6 lifetime starts

 

Race 10: Allowance $26k N1X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Would you believe it…another turf sprint?  Must be my lucky day…or something like that…and it’s sandwiched right in the late Pick 4 sequence?  Somebody get Mike Gathagan on the phone – NOW!
  • #6  I Can Do It (10/1) – disclaimer time – I know someone connected with this horse, so it’s a bit of a “heart play” rather than an actual selection
  • #11 Phosphorescent (5/2) – would be the clear choice if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position
  • #4 Oh My Me My (8/1) – Hasn’t won since last August, but has many angles pointing to an improved performance

 

Race 11: The Skipat Stakes ($70k) – 6 Furlongs
I counted 5 horses I thought could win this race. Besides my top 3 selections listed below, I also think #1 Streetscape (15/1) and #6 Lights Off Annie (9/2) are also capable.
  • #8 All Giving (5/1) – with tons of speed in this race, I put the checkmark on this runner coming from just off the pace
  • #2 Sweet Goodbye (3/1) – hard not to like 10 wins in 15 starts
  • #9 Rightly So (5/2) – has been in-the-money in all 8 lifetime starts, but may run into a hot pace battle here – which could compromise her chances

 

Race 12: Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 Miles
The feature race of the afternoon.  Similar to the Skipat, I counted 5 horses with a shot in here. In addition to the 3 runners below, I’d give #5 Harissa (5/1) and #9 Diva Delite (8/1) a puncher’s chance.
  • #8 Tidal Pool (8/5) – Show horse from the G1 Kentucky Oaks has two solid efforts in a row against the top 3-year-old filly in the land (Blind Luck). Should find things slightly easier today
  • #2 Seeking The Title (5/1) – sneaky horse – expecting big time improvement as her first try against winners was at the Grade 2 level and she ran very well
  • #1 No Such Word (7/2) – well beaten by Tidal Pool last out in the G2 Fantasy. Bullet workout on 5/9 at Delaware Park suggests she’s on her toes

 

Race 13 – The Hilltop Stakes ($70k) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
We end the day with a nice turf route. Hopefully by now we’ve all padded the bankrolls and can skip out early to start looking at the Preakness card for Saturday.
  • #5 Joharmony (5/1) – Three straight wins AND Javier Castellano on the turf? Yes please.
  • #6 Smart Seattle (3/1) – Trainer Graham Motion is a class act and deserves a victory on the Friday card
  • #8 Summer Shade (10/1) – Miss looks like she fits with this bunch. Not sure why she’s listed at 10/1?
Best of luck, and may all your wagers be winners!

I’ll be posting our picks for the entire Preakness card as soon as we return from Pimlico Friday evening.

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico, horse racing

Getting to Know the Preakness Contenders

10 05 2010

It’s time, folks.  Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that  if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on.  With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.

  • Super Saver

As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner.  The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel.  With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite.  All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.

  • Lookin at Lucky

Stop me when this sounds familiar.  A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention.  He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel.  Shades of 2007, anyone?  The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion.  Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing.  Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky.  Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby.  The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished.  He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign.  If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire.  Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.

  • Paddy O’Prado

In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders.  On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs,  he’d be one to watch again.

  • Caracortado

I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)?  It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart.  He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists.  However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby).  He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast.  He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.

  • Pleasant Prince

His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray.  When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite.  A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!

  • Dublin

Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas.  You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy.  Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way.  Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness.  I’m expecting improvement this weekend.

  • Hurricane Ike

I like Ike.  The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner.  Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore.  If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.

  • Yawanna Twist

Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances.  He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though.  Stranger things have happened.

  • Jackson Bend

Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions.  So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th.  If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.

  • First Dude

Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm.  Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass.  Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.

  • Schoolyard Dreams

A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever.  Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride.  The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7.   Would need to improve to threaten.

  • Aikenite

We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible.  A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance?  He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that.  His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward.  I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.

  • Northern Giant

On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star.  On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.

So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?

We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning.  Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Paddy O'Prado, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver, horse racing

Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Selections for Kentucky Oaks Day

29 04 2010

Derby weekend is FINALLY here!  Before we get too caught up in the actual Derby madness – there’s a fantastic card of racing for Friday to take in first.  Not only do we get the Oaks, but also 5 other stakes races as well – including the return of the defending Horse of the Year in Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 2 La Troienne (and her new nemesis, Zardana).

The weather figures to be mild for Oaks Friday, although storm clouds are expected for the Derby on Saturday.  If you’re interested in putting your opinion on the line – take a few moments to fill out our Win-Place-Show pool for the TBA over on Google Docs.  It’s a standard mythical $2 across-the-board setup with one horse in each race.

Anyhow, let’s jump right into the thick of things, shall we?

Rachel Alexandra, the defending Horse of the Year, returns against newfound nemesis Zardana in the G2 La Troienne on Friday

Race 6: Grade 2 La Troienne (1:26 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

A heavyweight bout of epic proportions: Zardana vs. Rachel – Round 2!  If team Rachel tries to gun for the front again, I think they are in trouble.  There’s “speed” on the inside (#1 Be Fair), and to her outside (#5 Unrivalled Belle and #6 Distinctive Dixie).  I’d much prefer a stalk and pounce trip the way she demonstrated in the Haskell and Mother Goose last year.  This one looks like a two-horse race between Zardana and Rachel – and it will likely take all the defending Horse of the Year has to make amends.  On the plus side, she’s supposedly training better - and it’s good she has a race under he belt, but Zardana will not be intimidated and must be reckoned with in the stretch.

Selections:

  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (3/5*)
  • #3 Zardana (3/1)
  • #5 Unrivaled Belle (5/1)

Race 7: Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (2:10 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs

Two-year-old Juvies.  Looks like a field that has some talented runners who ran well in their debuts.  What I see here is a wealth of speed, and while I know we’re only going 5 furlongs, the feeling is that it sets up well for Lou Brissie to come from just off the battle up front and pass them all in deep stretch.  I know Twelve Pack Shelly (beyond the cool name) has the outrageous speed figure for the debut, but that  was against Laurel Park maidens, so I’ll make her beat me if I can (lord knows with a name like that she could drink me under the table anyways).

Selections:

  • #2 Lou Brissie (5/1)
  • #9 Twelve Pack Shelly (3/1)
  • #4 Weekend Wildcat (12/1)

Race 8: Grade 3 Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (3:04 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Chamberlain Bridge is lethal at this distance (10 wins in 19 starts), but was handled by Silver Timber last out.  Get the feeling this one comes down to these two as well.  Longer odds horses with a shot here include Starfish Bay, Formidable, Heavenly Chorus, and Mitigation (I seldom toss any horse Alan Garcia is aboard).  Oh, and do not the presence of Garrett Gomez on #8 Barge as well.  Feels like a race I’d like to take a chance on with a longer priced horse, but I still think it comes down to the obvious 2 when all is said and done, and I’ll give the edge to Chamberlain Bridge on the slight cutback in distance.

Selections:

  • #3 Chamberlain Bridge (5/2)
  • #6 Silver Timber (2/1*)
  • #9 Formidable (12/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (3:54 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

Hard for me to be objective here.  On the one hand my 2009 Kentucky Derby pick Friesan Fire is here, as is my old pal Bullsbay for Graham Motion.  Obviously the bull needs some pace to run at, but there’s not a lot here.  Friesan Fire , Enriched,  and Cool Coal Man could all factor into the pace equation.  Bullsbay has been off since the Clark (G2) last November, but c’mon – I can’t pick against my boy here.  Like I said, hard to be objective for me.

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (6/1)
  • #4 Cool Coal Man (4/1)
  • #2 Friesan Fire (7/2*)

Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (4:47 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

The story behind the scenes for the American Turf is the entry of Setsuko, who would’ve been somewhat interesting in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday following his impressive 2nd place finish behind tepid Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.  Alas, while Make Music for Me  and Backtalk are in the Derby, Setsuko is here.  You may remember this guy from my initial KY Derby watch list in early February.  Two other horses I really like in this spot are Workin For Hops, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime and figures to get a decent trip if he isn’t hindered by the outside post in the 11 hole, and Doubles Partner, who could offer some value on the return to dirt with Garrett Gomez aboard.

Selections:

  • #11 Workin For Hops (12/1)
  • #6 Doubles Partner (10/1)
  • #1 Setsuko (4/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (5:45 PM ET) – 1 1/8 Miles

The feature race of the day may well be the best betting opportunity as well.  Most of the attention will rightly focus on Blind Luck, whom I think would make even more sense than Devil May Care in the Derby, but I digress.  That being said, there’s another horse in here I’m extremely fond of – It’s Tea Time.  I gave this horse out as my pick for the Ashland at the beginning of April during a chat on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website (a great spot for horse racing fans, I might add).  I was mildly ridiculed at the time – but I suspect this daughter of Dynaformer earned some respect when she almost nailed Evening Jewel at the wire.  I know she can get the distance of the Oaks.  What I don’t know is how she’ll like the dirt?  This much is certain – she’s my favorite 3-year-old filly at the moment, so you know I’m backing her all the way.

Selections:

  • #1 It’s Tea Time (10/1)
  • #5 Blind Luck (6/5*)
  • #11 Evening Jewel (10/1)

That’ll do it for our Oaks picks – check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for our picks for each of the major races this Saturday – including the Kentucky Derby.   Best of luck to all.


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2010 KY Derby Madness Begins – The Bladensburg Races

26 04 2010

Surprise, surprise – another Derby week dawns and another round of shocking news and updates is not far behind.  The updates themselves are surprising – Eskendereya out of the Kentucky Derby – but the notion that such events will unfold this time of year should not be so.  Yet, we seem to do this with alarming regularity – running around in a collective Chinese fire drill as highly touted horses scratch from the list of Derby starters.

In 2009, this came in the form of scratches to favorites Quality Road and I Want Revenge (with the latter occurring on Derby morning and thus being excusable for having caused sudden onset fits of panic).  Now we’re back in familiar territory in 2010 with the announcement on Sunday that Eskendereya is out of the Derby.

Note: no worries – it doesn’t appear that Der Fuhrer has yet received word of Eskendereya’s injury.

The change makes the race more interesting – no doubt about that – but does it make the race any more “wide open” than it already was (or wasn’t, depending upon your perspective)?

It’s not like Eskendereya was going to wire the field, and that his scratch drastically alters the pace setup.  We know we’ve still got speed horses in this race ranging from Conveyance to Line of David to American Lion.  Even the highly regarded Sidney’s Candy has shown proficiency for being on the lead – even if the supposition is that he will attempt to stalk on Saturday.

The way I see things, all we’ve done is removed one layer of uncertainty from the tangled web of Derby week drama.  Regardless of the pace setup, you’re either going to accept one of the lower priced, impressive horses form the West Coast in Sidney’s Candy or Lookin at Lucky – or you aren’t.

There’s ample reason to go in either direction for each horse.  Lucky obviously could use a little luck.  He’s the 2-year-old champion and there’s no question he’s a talented horse, but he seems to get himself into trouble every-so-often, which may not be a good sign on the eve of a field the size of the Derby.

Sidney’s Candy has blown away fields in California running wire to wire over the Pro Ride and turning in impressive late fractions along the way.  How often do we hear that the Pro Ride is really turf by another name?  Doesn’t that make it more impressive that a horse like Sid could wire fields the way he does?  He’s also a fabulous looking colt (and to let the cat out of the bag, I’ll confide here that he’s my wife’s top betting interest for the Derby).  He will, however, also have to do something he’s never had to do at this level or against this caliber of competition – pass horses in the stretch.

Make no mistake about it though – I think Lucky and Sidney are the two horses you’re going to have to beat if you want a Derby payday to remember.  They could well be standouts from a talent perspective when all is said and done.  That doesn’t mean they should be considered “locks” to finish 1, 2 in the Derby, however.

Looking over the rest of the field, I find myself intrigued by Awesome Act.  I don’t think he belongs anywhere near 7/2, but I was already looking at him to have an improved trip when I thought the monster we casually refer to as Eskendereya was still going to be in this race.  If Awesome gets a better trip, AND if he gets more fashionable footwear (dude had all kinds of shoe problems in the Wood), this could be a good ole fashioned British invasion (though technically Awesome Act is an American by birth, having been born in Kentucky and then shipped to England for training).

As Americans, we do enjoy a good British invasion every few years, don’t we?  Most folks think the one and only British invasion involved the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, but this is simply not the case.  It’s a topic I know all too well having grown up in rural Cecil County, MD – a target of not one, but TWO British invasions in our first half-century of existence (the first American casualties to have ever fallen under the “stars and stripes” having happened at nearbye Cooch’s Bridge in Delaware during the Brandywine campaign of 1777 – another American defeat hardly anyone has ever heard of).

Robert Ross - his "Awesome Act" in routing the Americans at Bladensburg left Washington, D.C. open to occupation in August, 1814.

In late August, 1814,  British forces under Sir Robert Ross assaulted American positions on the outskirts of Washington, D.C. at the lopsided Battle of Bladensburg.  The Americans were so routed by the redcoats that the ensuing retreat became forever known as “the Bladensburg races.”

Many reading this have no doubt never heard of Bladensburg or the action fought there – quite simply, with the exception of Custer’s Last Stand, we aren’t a people who like to celebrate our lopsided defeats.  We’re a much more victory oriented society.  We remember Gettysburg, Normandy, and Midway because “we” prevailed in those places.  At Bladensburg, it was our asses that got a royal kicking (quite literally).

The British, flushed with their recent success, advanced into the capital unopposed and set it aflame – driving president James Madison (and his wife Dolly) into the countryside seeking safety.  With the paths to Washington and Baltimore wide open, defeat for the tiny American republic seemed a foregone conclusion, but it was not to be.

Just outside of Baltimore, Major Ross was felled by the bullet of a sniper at the onset of the Battle of North Point.  With his death, the English were thrown into confusion and eventually driven from the field.  During the accompanying naval bombardment of Ft. McHenry at the mouth of Baltimore’s harbor, a young lawyer named Francis Scott Key would observe the cannonade and famously note with pride that on the following morning “our flag was still there.”

If Awesome Act were to somehow stage the upset this weekend – in effect he’d scatter the American resistance and send them fleeing for the safety of Pimlico (Baltimore/Washington) and beyond – rather like the running of the “Bladensburg races” nearly 200 years earlier.  Obviously I’m just having some fun with the possibilities here - as technically the colt is no more “English” than anyone who has vacationed in London or had their picture taken with Big Ben in the background.  I must confess though, ever since that Gotham victory, there is something about Awesome Act that I’m extremely fond of.   I wonder what his accent is like if he neighs something about aluminum?

At the end of the day I’ve got the wife jumping on Sidney’s Candy and the rest of the world seems to be on Lookin’ at Lucky.  I’m zigging when they zag and taking Awesome Act, and of course my good friend and fellow blogger Tencentcielo has been firmly aboard the Endorsement bandwagon since, well, since Radio Flyer came out with an Endorsement themed version of their popular red wagon following the Sunland Derby.

The million dollar question is – who are you taking?  I know Post Positions aren’t assigned yet and there’s still ample time for a million things to go wrong – but at this point you have to have some notion of which direction you’re leaning, and we’d love to hear about it.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, horse racing

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