Handicapping Selections « THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Independence Day Selections

3 07 2009

“Saturday in the park. I think it was the 4th of July.”

As we take time to remember the birth of the nation this weekend with our July 4 festivities, we’ll also be treated to some quality racing action by virtue of the holiday having landed on a Saturday. What better way to celebrate the triumph of our colonial forces over tyrannical British rule, or the victory won at Gettysburg by Federal forces over Lee’s infamous Army of Northern Virginia than by taking in some racing action while you sit back and relax in your favorite chair? No doubt some fireworks will be in store later in the evening as dusk approaches. Might we also witness some fireworks on the race track earlier in the day? We’ll take a look at some of the major action going on at Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Hollywood Park.

We’ll kick things off in Belmont by looking at the late Pick 4, which begins with the 8th race of the afternoon. We managed to nail a Pick 4 last week at Belmont, as the Beatles might say “with a little help from our friends.” We’ll see if this week can bear similar results.

Belmont Race 8 – The Dwyer (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:44 ET)

#1 Warrior’s Reward (9/5*)
#5 American Dance (8/1)
#2 Convocation (5/1)

Only 7 runners are entered for the 92nd running of The Dwyer, but it’s a very interesting race nonetheless. Most of the attention will rightly be focused on morning line favorite, Warrior’s Reward. The son of white-hot sire Medaglia d’Oro just missed in the Northern Dancer on 6/13 and has turned in a sharp bullet workout on 6/29 while looking to make amends in the ever crucial 3rd start of his current form cycle. He’s the one you’ve got to beat to score.

Looking over the rest of the field, #5 American Dance makes quite a bit of sense to me at very generous odds of 8/1. The son of A.P. Indy has knocked heads with the likes of Dunkirk, Warrior’s Reward, Old Fashioned, and Imperial Council in his young career – fairly good company if you ask me. He was no match for the favorite last February when the running line denotes that he “faltered.” If you draw a line through that race, the Todd Pletcher trainee seems to be improving nicely. At 8/1 it won’t take much for him to be worth of a spot play, and if nothing else he’s a nice horse to consider using underneath in the exotics.

Convocation is another improving runner, this time a son of Pulpit, who took 4 tries to break his maiden. Trainer James Jerkens seems to have him coming into form nicely and he reunites with jockey Alan Garcia, who rode him in his debut. It is interesting to note that he was steadied and “boxed in” when losing to Top It two races a back, a horse that was soundly defeated by another of today’s rivals (#4 Masala). I’m assuming that if not for that trip trouble, Convocation would’ve defeated Top It as well. Just a hunch.

Obviously then, I’m taking a stand against the 2nd choice on the line, #6 Just Ben (2/1) for all but the bottom of exotic wagers. My thinking is that being a Speightstown colt, he’s probably better suited for the shorter sprint distances that he’s run effectively at thus far. I’m not sure a mile and a sixteenth is his game.

Belmont Race 9 – The Prioress (G1) – 6 Furlongs (5:16 ET)

#6 Gabby’s Golden Gal (7/2)
#1 Cat Moves/ #1A Light Green (3/1)
#8 On the Menu (6/1)

We move into Grade 1 territory for the 62nd running of The Prioress. This is a very interesting 3-year-old filly race. One wonders how small this field might’ve turned out if Rachel Alexandra had decided to run here instead of the Mother Goose? Lucky for these guys, there is no Rachel today. That being said, they will have their own talented daughter of Medaglia d”Oro to deal with in #6 Gabby’s Golden Gal. You might remember Gabby from Belmont Stakes day this year, as she got a bit overheated following her dominating victory in the Acorn. She looked like an absolute beast that day, and has been training like an absolute beast ever since (two bullet workouts on 6/20 and 6/28). Looking over the competition arrayed against her today, she might well have to be a beast to prevail in the Prioress. I say this because she’s cutting back drastically to the 6 furlong distance, which might not be her best game. Additionally, she seems a speedy type, and this race is not without others who will have designs on the lead in the early going. I’d spread a bit here in the Pick 4 is all I’m saying.

The coupled entry of #1 Cat Moves and #1 Light Green forms an interesting duo for owner Edward Evans and trainers Tony Dutrow (Cat Moves) and Todd Pletcher (Light Green). Light Green is the faster of the two and the most likely to be involved in the pace setup that should also involve Gabby’s Golden Gal and Selva. Cat Moves is an improving but lightly raced daughter of Tale of the Cat who is not without some speed of her own. It’ll be interesting to see how this race sets up for each of them.

Don’t forget about trainer Larry Jones, who is sitting in a sneaky position on the outside with #8 On the Menu. This will obviously be a step up in class for the daughter of Canadian Frontier, but the race may come together nicely for her if she can secure a good stalking position just behind the expected pace. I think this horse has a better shot of hitting the board than others with lower odds on the morning line, including #7 Selva (5/1) and #3 Heart Ashley (4/1), who was all out despite an easy lead to hold off the late charging Cinderella’s Wish in the Miss Preakness back in May. I remember Heart Ashley being a very fine looking filly though, so I will be checking her out in the post parade to try and make a final evaluation.

Belmont Race 10 – The Suburban Handicap (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:49 ET)

#3 It’s a Bird (2/1*)
#4 Asiatic Boy (5/2)
#1 Finallymadeit (20/1)

We drop back down to the Grade 2 level and stretch back out to a route of ground for the 123rd running of the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap. This race came up very strong on paper and is perhaps the most difficult to separate of the entire Pick 4 sequence. I wound up on the chalk, #3 It’s a Bird, for top honors nonetheless. Back to back 107 Beyer figures and 3 victories in your last 4 races tends to make a runner stick out. Having proven victories at distances ranging from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles, I’m not worried about the distance of The Suburban. He should be in a great spot to receive a strong stalking trip and then look to make his move as the field enters the turn.

Asiatic Boy is the x-factor of the race, as he returns on short rest from his battle with Einstein for Place honors behind Macho Again in the Stephen Foster (G1) on 6/13. He’s probably best known as the horse that ran 2nd to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup. He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when dusted by Well Armed in the 2009 edition, but then bounced back with a big effort in the Stephen Foster. I’m not sure where to rank this horse as he seems to be a hit or miss type. I’ll give him a shot like It’s a Bird to sit a nice stalking trip as his past performance lines are filled with comments that begin “tracked” or “rated.”

A longshot that really intrigues me here is #1 Finallymadeit. It’s rather hard to believe that we can get anything like 20/1 on a horse like this. He’s won 16 races lifetime, including 2 this year, for a grand total of over $900,000 in earnings. Perhaps more impressively, if you like It’s a Bird in this race, do note that Finallymadeit defeated him last November. He’s probably running into an unfavorable pace setup, as #10 Samhoon and #8 Cool Coal Man figure to be looking for the lead early on as well, but certainly he’s worth factoring into the exotics at least at such odds.

I also wouldn’t totally sleep on #2 Dry Martini as well. He’s a notch below the others, but might be the one that benefits the most from the pace setup.

In the final leg of the Pick 4 (Race 11 – a $44k Maiden Special Weight), I think you can reduce the field down to #1 Wild Entry, #1A Grassy, and #7 Tawaared.

Belmont Late Pick 4 Ticket ($48)

1,5/ 1,6,8/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,7

Monmouth Park – Race 10 – The United Nations (G1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (5:20 ET)

#7 Presious Passion (9/2)
#1 Banrock (6/1)
#5 Court Vision (3/1)

We move to Monmouth Park in New Jersey for their feature race of the afternoon, the 56th running of the United Nations (G1) going 1 3/8 miles over the turf course. Very difficult race to decipher. I thought the pace setup might favor Presious Passion getting to the lead, and if so he may be very difficult to take down. This is the kind of runner you’ve got to respect, with 3 wins in his last 5 races (all of them finishes in the exacta). All things considered, 9/2 is fairly generous value for a runner like this, although I don’t think he’ll be that high come post time (I’m thinking more like 3/1?).

I wouldn’t sleep on Banrock though either, as this runner almost nailed Presious Passion in the Monmouth Stakes. He should be right there at the end as well. Another small move forward and he’s a likely candidate for win honors.

Court Vision will be a popular selection based on name recognition, but we simply don’t know if the distance will be to his liking. I expect a game effort, just didn’t see enough to pull the trigger and make him the top selection. I could imagine him having his work cut out for him as he tries to close into Presious Passion’s lead late in the stretch.

Better Talk Now is a horse that regular readers know I always cover. He’s simply one of my favorite horses in the world. The legendary “black beast” and former turf champion. I thought he looked excellent running on gamely for show in the Manhattan Handicap (G1) on Belmont Stakes day. Similar to Court Vision, the pace scenario doesn’t exactly flatter his chances as a late closing type. In the end I just trust “blackie’s” heart and soul a bit more than many of the other runners.

Another guy I was trying to find a way to make a case for is Wesley. One of these days, this horse is going to bust out and run a career defining race. It’s just hard to imagine it being this Saturday. If, however, he looks good in the post parade, I might just be tempted enough to take a flyer on him.

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The American Handicap (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

#5 Whatsthescript (8/5)
#2 Storm Military (5/1)
#4 Monterey Jazz (5/2)

We’ll keep things simple here as we wind up with the 70th running of the American Handicap (G2) at Hollywood. Only 6 horses are signed on here, and #5 Whatsthescript appears to be the obvious horse to beat. Storm Military and Monterey Jazz will likely be the leaders in the early going, and Whatsthescript will be trying to close into whatever those two produce. It’s important to note that Monterey Jazz did defeat Whatsthescript back in December 0f 2007, but I simply feel Whatsthescript is a much better horse at this point in his career.

So there you have it. Make sure you enjoy your holiday weekend and hopefully by the time we’re through here you are saddling up to witness a kick ass fireworks display with a few extra dollars in your pocket. Happy 4th of July everyone!

Comments : 14 Comments »
Tags: Belmont picks, Gabby's Golden Gal, Hollywood Park picks, monmouth picks, presious passion, the dwyer, the prioress, the suburban, united nations, warrior's reward
Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News, horse racing

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

20 06 2009

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature. This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park. Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes. Along those lines, Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out. So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!”

The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card. That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6. Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance. The more the merrier! Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us.

Enough about that for now though. Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

#9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
#1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
#3 Gray Suitor (4/1)

We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs. This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds. Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper. The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today. Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level. Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field. This one looked pretty obvious to me on top.

Delaware Park – Race 7 - The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET

1 1/8 Miles

#7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
#3 All Night Labor (10/1)
#8 Skylighter (3/1)

Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here. She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before. If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price.

All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good. Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races.

Skylighter is very interesting from the outside. I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means. Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount. You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he?

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET

5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

#3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
#13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
#11 Excessive Heat (15/1)

Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection. I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events. That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race. Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well.

Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision. The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers.

Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl ($125k)- 4:51 ET

1 1/16 Miles

#3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
#5 Cat Moves (8/1)
#1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)

Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl. I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races. In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.

Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle. The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance.

Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET

1 1/4 Miles - Turf

#6 Dynaforce (3/1)
#3 Criticism (5/2*)
#4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)

We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York. No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week. The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?

First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much. Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more. Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year. She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch.

Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well. If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of the softer footing underneath her hooves.

Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today. I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?

Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET

1 1/8 Miles – Turf

#6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
#7 Indescribable (7/2)
#4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)

Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend. That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie. This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort. She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here. In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price. As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith.

Indescribable is another interesting runner here. Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good. Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way.

I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

#3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
#8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
#10 Lime Rickey (7/2)

The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners. Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here. Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today. My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April? My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft? Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness).

Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use. I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names. Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army. William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.” As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance.

Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. I suspect he’ll run big here as well.

Hollywood Park – Race 9 – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET

1 1/16 Miles

#2 Grazen (2/1*)
#3 Cape Truth (7/2)
#1 Misremembered (4/1)

We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles over the main cushion track. I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3. The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground. Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score.

Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out. He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert. This is a small, yet competitive field.

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.

Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: ahvee's destiny, battle of hastings, Colonial Downs, criticism, Dynaformer, Medaglia d'Oro, payton d'oro, Rachel Alexandra fanclub, skylighter, smart and fancy, unbridled belle
Categories : Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, horse racing

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing. On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap. Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation.

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission. From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast), major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4: The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

#3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
#1A Music Note (2/5*)
#1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track. Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter. From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry. That’s real fair. Thanks. You know what? I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done.

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth? Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling. Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee. The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5 selections. Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

#2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
#11 On the Menu (9/2)
#10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race. As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here. Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is.

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly. She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley. Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice. As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field. With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire. It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short. From where I sat it looked a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley. She’s my pick of the day. Lock and load. Go get ‘em, baby girl!

#11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so. Either one could run big today. I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed. This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

Monmouth Park – Race 9: The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

#1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
#7 Presious Passion (9/2)
#4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this? I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes? Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation. Nothing is as it seems. I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time. While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer.

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further. It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance. He’ll be tough though. That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him. He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort. I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks. I’ll hop aboard again this weekend.

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid. His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner. Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops. If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

#6 Bullsbay (10/1)
#3 Einstein (2/1*)
#5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein. The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface. I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here.

He won’t get away with it easy, however. Two rivals in particular look very intriguing. Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line. That’s absolute theft for a gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January). I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about. They’re always fighters. Plus, look at the connections. It’s Graham Motion! One of my favorite trainers. That’s too much for me. A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite? I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here.

Don’t get me wrong. I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay. Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town. The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price.

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET). He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old. Enough said.

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

#4 Aitcho (8/1)
#3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
#6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track. Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race. Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone. This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics. Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking.

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level. Is this an acid test? Sure. Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field? Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at 8/1 he offers value on the tote board. Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse. Looks like a fine colt to me.

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone. He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away. But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park. You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle. Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there. I’m just sayin’. Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend. Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday. ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.

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Tags: aitcho, Big Brown, bobblehead, Bullsbay, cinderella's wish, Einstein, Medaglia d'Oro, monmouth park. philadelphia park, proudinsky, seattle smooth, warrior's reward
Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Music Note, horse racing

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

#1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
#2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
#4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
#5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
#6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
#7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
#8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
#9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
#10 Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season. It’s hard to believe we’re already here. Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself. Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash? Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said? You’ve got to love “the bird.” Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May. After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta. Big mistake. He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny. For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.” Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him. In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us. I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant.

He ought to run away with this one, right?

It’s a foregone conclusion, right?

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?

“Not so fast!”

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races. We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get. The trouble is (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race? I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out. You know he’ll do that much. He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be. I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him. Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though. He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide. Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is. The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough. It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory). Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career. He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle. Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires.

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch. When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one. We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come. A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch. That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs. Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace.

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby. After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore. Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk? He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance. If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here. I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont. Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half. Some just take longer than others.” My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance. Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race. If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field). All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th. My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird. If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance. If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird? He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race. Don’t we see this happen all the time? Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and prevails. All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so. Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race? I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th. That means 13 other runners finished behind him. What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race. Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont. This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory. He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again. I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy. Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14.

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov. We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.” It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot Spitzer. Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102. I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter. Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff. The Tiznow of the field. Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board. The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt. At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself. I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped. You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts. NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow! Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now. What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself. It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat?

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field. No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary. I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade. It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered.

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through. The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise. Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

#7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
#6 Charitable Man (3/1)
#1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours. It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.

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Tags: Belmont picks, Belmont selections, chocolate candy, mr. hot stuff, charitable man, summer bird, calvin borel
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Belmont Day; Undercard Selections

4 06 2009

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now.

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store. As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard. It is jam packed with interesting races. What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice. My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade. This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved. I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so.

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime. It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks. Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing. You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime. It’s still the best show in town.

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing? Because…we’re horseplayers. And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen. Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got. C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time! Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post. It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post.

Race 6: The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

#1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
#2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
#3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
#4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
#5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

#1 Benny the Bull (5/2)

#6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)

#5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull. Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch. He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite. Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike. The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July. If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll. His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win. Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle. #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics. You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe.

Race 7: The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

#1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
#2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
#3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
#4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
#5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
#6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
#7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
#8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

#5 Forever Together (6/5*)

#6 Modern Look (8/1)

#7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together. The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall. She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance. Clearly she’s the horse to beat. The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look. She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you. However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve. Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished 4th to last May at Longchamp (France): Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven. Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite.

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April. This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game. One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess. I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

#1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
#1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
#2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
#3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
#4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
#5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
#6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
#7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
#8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

#2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)

#1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)

#8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently. Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil. You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January. Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures. He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way. He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale).

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well. The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts. Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead. I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings. Remember this guy? At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles. After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009. Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance. Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade. I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here. The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer. If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play.

Race 9: The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

#1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
#3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
#4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
#5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
#7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
#8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
#9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

#8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)

#4 Funny Moon (8/1)

#7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie. If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her. Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions. We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson. The rest is history. With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset. Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field. Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories. If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath. It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking. On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement. Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners. Same goes for #9 Four Gifts. This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail.

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

#1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
#1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
#2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
#3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
#4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
#5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
#6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
#7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
#8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
#9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
#10 Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
#11 Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
#12 Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
#2B Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

#6 Wesley (12/1)

#12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)

#1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day. The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper. Just look at this field! I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8 Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner. You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday. I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries. Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf. Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on.

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset. #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns. His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide. I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3. This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage.

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.

Comments : 6 Comments »
Tags: Belmont selections, take back saturday, charitable man, justwhistledixie, calvin borel, belmont undercard, wesley, just a game, woody stephens, the acorn, manhattan handicap
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

Zenyatta’s return; Undefeated mare favored in the Milady Handicap

22 05 2009

One good lady deserves another. It’s only fitting and proper. Of course,in the cases of the phenoms that are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, “good” is a rather modest choice of words, but I’ll trust the expression is not lost upon the reader. After witnessing history with Rachel Alexandra’s triumph in the Preakness last weekend, we return this weekend with the undefeated Zenyatta, or as I like to call her “Slow Cheetah“, making her 2009 debut in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park. If things hold up, these two ladies might be on a collision course for Breeders’ Cup weekend this October, and when all is said and done they might have a Horse of the Year title on the line between them. For now though, each runner has more immediate challenges to concern themselves with.

It’s been over half a year since we’ve seen the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry rolling to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last October at Santa Anita. This weekend she’ll put her undefeated record on the line against fellow stablemate Life Is Sweet, who is exiting 3 consecutive graded stakes victories of her own and clearly in top form. You can see the story lines running through this race already. Life Is Sweet comes into the race in peak condition. Zenyatta comes off the shelf after a sustained layoff. If they both run to their previous class (and there’s no reason to suspect they’ll do otherwise) It looks very much like the Milady will turn into a two horse affair. The field sets up like this:

#1 Gambler’s Justice (M. Garcia/ B. Spawr) 20/1
#2 Taste’s Sis (D. Sorenson/M. Polanco) 30/1
#3 Allicansayis Wow (J. Talamo/ P. Biancone) 20/1
#4 Dawn After Dawn (J. Rosario/ J. Sadler) 10/1
#5 Champagne Eyes (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 8/1
#6 Bel Air Sizzle (R. Bejarano/ B. Abrams) 20/1 Note: likely to scratch
#7 Life Is Sweet (G. Gomez/ J. Shirreffs) 5/2
#8 Hot n’ Dusty (A. Solis/ B. Abrams) 50/1 Note: likely to scratch
#9 Zenyatta (M.Smith/ J. Shirreffs) 3/5*

Before Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta can make it a two horse race, however, they’ll need to wear down the early speed. Luckily for them, it appears on paper that ample speed has signed on here to suit their respective closing styles. #1 Gambler’s Justice along the rail and #2 Taste’s Sis both appear to be speedy types that should be forwardly placed earlier on. #5 Champagne Eyes is also likely to be a part of the pace, although she may attempt to press from just behind the rail runner. #4 Dawn After Dawn should be stalking early on in about 3rd or 4th position, anywhere from 2-4 lengths behind the early pace.

As the field begins to turn into the stretch, the real race should begin, and it may well come down to who gets first jump between Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta. Ultimately, I think you’ve got to give Zenyatta the slight edge here, despite the long layoff. We’ve simply never seen a situation that she can’t overcome. She’s thrived at Hollywood Park ever since breaking her maiden there on a Thursday night in November of 2007. Moreover, she’s a perfect 6 for 6 at the 1 1/16 mile distance, which appears to be her comfort zone. Admittedly, she’s perfect at everything she’s attempted thus far, so that last bit might not seem to matter much at first glance, but if this race were being run at either a shorter 1 mile distance or a longer 1 1/8 mile distance then perhaps there would be reason to suspect some vulnerability. Conversely, it’s debatable whether 1 1/16 miles is the preferred distance for Life Is Sweet. Surely she can clearly score at that distance, but she might be a better runner at 1 1/8 miles.

I’ll play Zenyatta on top, even though she’ll be a huge favorite. Underneath I’ll use Life Is Sweet, who I think will make it very close but most likely come up just short at the wire. With the two Barry Abrams runners (#6 Bel Air Sizzle and #8 Hot n’ Dusty) likely to scratch, I’ll focus underneath on the longshot #3 Allicansayis Wow, who managed to prevail last out against optional claimers despite clipping heels in the stretch. I’d expect a much improved effort this time out in only her 2nd start in the U.S. I’ll also toss in Champagne Eyes, Dawn After Dawn, and the rail runner Gambler’s Justice (just in case she holds on for a slice).

I’m keeping the ticket on the cheap side here, but if you feel confident with a particular combination it might be a good idea to hammer it through the betting windows 10 to 20 times, as the straight exacta is not likely to return much of a payout.

Selections:

#9 Zenyatta (3/5*)
#7 Life Is Sweet (5/2)
#3 Allicansayis Wow (20/1)

$1 Trifecta 9/7/1,3,4,5 =$4

Best of luck to everyone, and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.

Comments : 4 Comments »
Tags: Allicansayis Wow, Champagne Eyes, Hollywood Park picks, horse racing, john shirreffs, Life Is Sweet, slow cheetah, sports, zenyatta's reterun
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta, horse racing

Shine Again highlights closing day at Pimlico

22 05 2009

One can always tell that the true “dog days of summer” are right around the corner with the arrival of Memorial Day weekend. As racing fans, our attention will soon be focused on locations like Saratoga and Del Mar. The Triple Crown races will soon be behind us, and once again it will be time to test the top 3-year-olds against the top older horses in the nation and begin to set the table for the Breeders’ Cup this fall.

Before we reach that destination, there’s still some exciting action left to cover in the wake of the historic finish in the 2009 Preakness.

It’s closing weekend at Pimlico, which means it’s my last chance of the season to play along at the track where it all began for me. Much has been made of the decreased infield attendance at Old Hilltop during Preakness day, but I think folks who focus on that are missing the point. Both television viewership and betting handle were up significantly. If you had to pick between infield attendance, betting handle, and tv viewership, which of those selections would offer the weakest prospect in terms of building a long term relationship with fans? In my estimation, having been an infield attendee for many years during my college days, it was clearly the infield that had to go.

What had once been an exciting, if not over-the-top, annual tradition of adolescent drunkenness had turned into an extremely violent situation that seemed like a powder keg waiting to explode. In other words, I did not miss dodging flying beer cans for one moment this year. In fact, the infield is now a place where I can consider taking my small children one day, so that they too might develop a love and appreciation for the majestic horses that so captivate us. Imagine that! Rather than catering to drunken college kids who could care less if they ever even see a horse all day, the track might move forward and begin developing a bond of shared experiences with the next generation…all while Mommy and Daddy watch and wager without worry of having to defend their family with their life from a mob of inebriated hooligans. What a noble idea, huh?

I only mention this because living in the Baltimore area, one of the hot topics you still hear people arguing over is the whole “infield debate.” Personally, I think the decision was in the best interest of everyone involved; the horsemen, the horses, the racing fans who actually come to see the races, and even the would-be hooligans, who at so young an age realize not what a danger they are to themselves and others.

Again, ratings and handle were UP! That’s what you want to see! That’s how you gain national attention and become relevant! Not by allowing college kids to pillage one another in senseless unsupervised drunken debauchery. Was the infield more barren than years before? No question…but my guess is that once folks figure out it’s actually a family friendly place now, you’ll see more attendees file in over the year who are their to actually play the races, rather than just occupy a cube of grass and proclaim complete beligerence for any who dare pass bye.

Plus, how many times have we heard that our sport needs an image change? That all the things you see associated with horse racing, from fatal breakdowns, to degenerate gambling are “bad for the sport.” Is there really anyone out there who thinks the scenes from the Preakness infield in years past is what this sport needed at this point in time?

Hats off to the folks of the Maryland Jockey Club for standing up and doing what was right, even if it wasn’t universally popular or appreciated. The “right” decisions are often the hardest to make, and in this case doubly so considering the economic hardship that has hit Maryland racing in the past year.

Don’t get me wrong…the infield had it’s bright spots, and I’m filled with memories (though many are quite hazy and disjointed for some reason) of infields past that continue to bring a smile to my face, but the turn to ever increasing recklessness in recent years was one that had to be controlled. The fact that handle for the day was able to increase despite the economic situation our nation currently finds itself in also speaks VOLUMES about what one super filly can do for our sport. See that, folks? “Star power” does work. Now if I could just get someone to buy into the whole “Take Back Saturday” idea, we might have a fighting chance to turn things around for the sport still!

Ah…see, get me talking about Preakness and I start to rant. Let’s move on to the intended purpose of this post – some quick selections for the final day of racing at Pimlico.

We’ll focus on the feature race of the day, the Shine Again, for fillies and mares 3-years old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main dirt track. The field sets up like this:

#1 Swallow Falls (J. Pimentel/ M. Eppler) 7/2
#1A Katrinarita (no rider/ M. Eppler) 7/2
#3 Four Karats (G. Whitacre/ C. Pickett) 15/1
#3 Five Diamonds (no rider/ J. Hartsell) 3/1
#4 Amie’s Legend (Luis Garcia/G. Motion) 8/5*
#5 Silent Diva (no rider/ L. Murray) 5/1
#6 Eye (no rider/ K. Leatherbury) 6/1

It may be a small field, but it looks to be an intriguing one. Two of the entries, #3 Four Karats, and #6 Eye, raced last Friday in the Kattegat’s Pride on Black Eyed Susan Day. Four Karats led throughout the early action, but ultimately yielded to Eye in the stretch, who pulled away to win by 2 1/4 lengths. It’s interesting to see these runners turned out again on such short rest, but do note that Eye began her 2009 campaign on just 15 days rest on 1/10/09 and managed to defeat $9k claimers at Laurel Park.

The horse who I think you have to focus on here is #4 Amie’s Legend. She’s got some personal connections that I simply can’t ignore, having a name that invokes reference to my wife (Amy). Further, the 4-year-old daughter of Not For Love is trained by Graham Motion, my favorite horsemen on the Maryland circuit. She exits a victory against $17k optional claimers and is taking a fairly steep class hike on paper, but she clearly fits on paper with the other runners in this field and this would appear to be a smart spot to place her in search of her first graded stakes victory. She should be able to come from just off the pace and a repeat performance of her last effort likely finds her in the winner’s circle once again.

Underneath I like #6 Eye coming from off the pace as well. Usually I’d prefer to take a speed horse at Pimlico, as the track tends to favor such runners, but it looks like their could be enough action up front between #2 Four Karats, #3 Five Diamonds, and #5 Silent Diva to give Eye a similar setup to what he received in the Kattegatt’s Pride last week. One thing is certain, we know she’s in sharp form coming off that last out win.

Of the rest of the field, Id prefer #3 Five Diamonds, but the field is small enough that you might as well hit the all button for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

#4 Amie’s Legend (8/5*)
#6 Eye (6/1)
#3 Five Diamonds (3/1)

$1 Trifecta: 4/6/All =$4

In the final race of the day, I’m somewhat excited about a longshot first time starter for trainer Robert Gamber named Big Boper. Apart from the King Leatherbury runner Stokes, who will likely be hammered at the windows by virtue of his 2nd place finish last out, Their really isn’t anything in this field that gives me tremendous pause. I think I’ll take the first time runner at 20/1, and who knows, the odds might actually get better on this guy by post time. Note that Gamber is actually hitting at a better clip this meet (17%) than Leatherbury (12%). Granted, it’s been a short meet, but that’s still worth taking into consideration. I’m not sure if he’ll pull out the win, but I’ll likely cover him across the board and play a small exacta with Big Boper and Stokes and hope for some magic.

Selections (race 10)

$10 WPS #4 Big Boper
$1 Ex Box: 4,11 ($2)

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches. So long to Pimlico for the year. The meet may have been short, but it certainly was sweet.

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Tags: alcohol ban, amie's legend, big boper, graham motion, maryland jockey club, pimlico selections, Preakness, preakness infield, shine again
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, horse racing

Preakness Day Selections

15 05 2009

It’s hard to believe that the second jewel of the Triple Crown is already upon us. From a week that began with the Alibi Breakfast festivities, we’re now through the Black Eyed Susan, and all attention turns to the Preakness. After bringing home two chalk heavy Pick 4 plays at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, I’m jumping right back into the fray with an exhaustive look at the major races that comprise the Preakness Day card on Saturday. A marathon of 13 races presents itself, culminating in the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes. It’s a day that could be filled with history, as Rachel Alexandra looks to defy the odds and become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse way back in 1924.

Two years ago in 2007, my life changed when I watched a brilliant colt named Curlin take center stage and announce to the world that a new star was born. Might a similarly life changing event be waiting for us just hours away? Only time will tell.

Much like the Black Eyed Susan picks, I’ll skip the opening races on the day and instead focus on the two Pick 4 sequences. This is in the interest of time since it’s already 9 PM here in Pennsylvania as I begin writing this. With any luck we’ll do as good as we did Friday on Black Eyed Susan Day, only hopefully this time we’ll catch some better prices along the way.

Race 5: Alw 26000 N1X (12:26 ET)

#2 Schleprock (4/1)
#7 Habitual (5/2*)
#11 Chancellery (9/2)

We kick things off in the early Pick 4 with a full field of 12 runners routing 1 1/16 miles over the Pimlico turf. There’s not a lot of speed in this race, but turf races tend to come down to “cavalry charges” at the end, where the horse picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down the best in the final few jumps finds it’s way to the winner’s circle. For that reason, I went with #2 Schleprock as the top choice. He’s got 2 recent victories routing over the grass and is technically dropping slightly in class going from the $37k N1X ranks down to the $26k N1X level. With Edgar Prado in the saddle for trainer Michael Pino, this guy looks the one to beat. #7 Habitual is actually listed at lower odds (5/2) on the morning line than Schleprock. You have to look back a couple of races to see why, but this son of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven to be a capable turf runner. On his best stuff he can certainly get the job done. #11 Chancellery will have to get things done from the outside, but he’s been improving and has run a couple of decent races in his career over the Pimlico lawn. Another horse that warrants some attention in here is #4 Been Awhile, who took 7 chances to break his maiden, but then promptly defeated N2L claimers at first asking. Perhaps the light bulb has switched on?

$1 Early Pick 4:

2,7,11/ 3,9,10,11/ 8/ 3,6,7 = $36

Race 6: The Deputed Testamony (1:07 ET)

#11 Sumacha’hot (2/1)
#9 Belle’s Broker (6/1)
#3 Norjac (5/2)

Things get a bit deeper when we wade into Stakes territory with the 2nd running of The Deputed Testamony (which for some reason I always want to type as “the Disputed Testimony“), a 1 1/16 mile race over the Pimlico main track. #11 Sumacha’hot would be a much stronger play if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position. As such, and despite his very usable dirt form in recent history, you’ve got to include other runners on the Pick 4 ticket here. #9 Belle’s Broker has the look of a horse who may get overlooked on the tote board. He definitely knows how to find the winner’s circle, and he’s run pretty well at both this distance and on the local track. He was favored last out before being checked, which may have cost him the race. A bounce back effort puts him right in contention today. #3 Norjac must answer questions regarding his ability to stretch out and get the distance of the Deputed Testamony, but if is able to handle the chore, than he’s clearly a player as well. Two other horses I think warrant consideration in here are #10 Furrariat, who might be ready for a breakout performance, and the speedy inside runner, #1 Out to Please. Ultimately I didn’t think the inside speed runner “classed up” on paper enough to include in the Pick 4, but I wouldn’t count him out of the single race exotics. Of course, I could also make a bit of a case for #3 Take Down Two getting Garrett Gomez in the saddle, so this might be a good race to spread fairly deep. #7 Court Bland will be charging late, and has a decent chance to hit the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Gallorette (1:55 ET)

#8 Dynaforce (4/5*)
#2 All Is Vanity (9/2)
#3 Shytoe Lafeet (10/1)

We move into graded stakes territory with the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gallorette, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf. #8 Dynaforce is the main attraction of this event, coming off a disappointing 8th (though only beaten by 4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita to the super talented Forever Together. This looks like a good spot for her to make his 2009 debut, as she’s the only runner of the field that can boast at having cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure threshold. That being said, she’ll still need to bring his top stuff to prevail. As a previous Grade 1 winner, she’s clearly the class of the field. What handicappers must determine is if they are willing to trust that class off the long layoff and bravely single, or if they think a couple of other runners might have a chance to pull off the upset. Obviously, based on my Pick 4 play a few races above, I’m going to be brave and trust that class edge, but you won’t hear me argue with those who feel otherwise….and their just might be some juicy value to be had for those who do attempt to beat the chalk. #2 All is Vanity looks like the filly with the best chance to “class up” against Dynaforce in here. She used a wide post position to put in a game run against Raw Silk in the South Beach back in April, and could move forward off that effort. #3 Shytoe Lafeet is my longshot bomb chance for this race. For one thing, I’m always fond of the Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combo, especially with fillies and mares. What’s more, this is a runner who has had excuses in each of the past two races. I’m guessing that with a name like Shytoe Lafeet, all of the foot fetish folks out there in the world will be all over this runner. If you toss those efforts, she’s got a little something under the hood and looks like a player in here to me. Another horse I’d strongly consider using in the single race exotics is #5 Quiet Meadow.

Race 8: The Grade 3 Hirsch Jacobs (2:35 ET)

#6 Despite the Odds (9/2)
#3 Not for Silver (8/1)
#7 Nuclear Wayne (4/1)

I actually had a chance to cover the 34th running of The Hirsch Jacobs over at Case The Race earlier this weekend. I’m still sticking with my picks there. I think this race has all kinds of speed, and the two horses that leap off the page to me are those from the white hot Michael Trombetta barn. #6 Despite the Odds looks to be the better of the two, and is an improving son of champion sprinter Speightstown. #3 Not for Silver is no slouch himself, and really I could see either of these guys passing the pace setters in the lane to score. Another runner who could offer some value, despite being only 4/1 on the morning line is #7 Nuclear Wayne, a fast improving son of Mineshaft. Of the speed types, #1 Taqarub makes the most sense to me, but like I said, I’ll be playing against the speed here.

Race 9: The Woodlawn (3:44 ET)

#8 Affirmatif (3/5*)
#4 Beacon Hill Road (6/1)
#5 Colonel Rutledge (10/1)

The Late Pick 4 sequence begins with the 44th running of The Woodlawn. We’ve got a field of ten three-year-olds going 1 mile over the turf . #8 Affirmatif is the most intriguing of the field, despite this being only his 3rd career start. The son of Unbridled’s Song is listed at extremely low odds of 3/5 on the morning line, but appears a worthy favorite on paper. He’ll likely press the pace early on and then make his move before the field enters the final turn. If he’s as good as he looks on paper, the race could be over right there. #4 Beacon Hill Road was a mediocre looking runner until switched to the Jason Servis barn, where he’s promptly run his best career efforts in back to back stakes races. A similar effort could put him right where he needs to be should Affirmatif fail to fire. My longshot pick for the race is #5 Colonel Rutledge. Not only do I love a good martial sounding name in a colt, but this one goes out for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion. It’s hard to figure out based on his limited past performance profile if he’s a better dirt runner or turf runner. He owns a win over the grass, but his better speed figures have been over the dirt. I’m guessing that he’s an improved horse since that first turf effort. That should show up on Saturday. Another horse you’ve got to consider using is #1 Heros Image, who might be force to go quickly early on by virtue of breaking from the rail.

$1 Late Pick 4:

4,8/ 5,7,8/ 1,3,4/ 7,9,13 = $54

Race 10: The Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (4:30 ET)

#8 Ravalo (3/1)
#5 Ah Day (5/2*)
#7 Celtic Innis (10/1)

Speed is the name of the game in the 23rd running of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap, and #8 Ravalo has it. True, his last two efforts at Aqueduct and Keeneland have left quite a bit to be desired, but this gelding has won an impressive 8 of 16 races at today’s 6 furlong distance. I don’t think that can be ignored. He’s breaking from the outside ,but should be able to get the lead and then shift over to save ground. Speed tends to hold quite well at Pimlico, so he should be a force if he does indeed get loose up front. #5 Ah Day shocked me by being 5/2 on the morning line. I would have thought his recent darkened form trying to stretch out further might have increased his value. Now we’ll be at the mercy of horseplayers to determine what price he actually goes to post as. He should relish the distance change, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle, this son of Malibu Moon could be quite a force for trainer King Leatherbury. #7 Celtic Innis is another runner who seems to thrive at the 6 furlong idstance, and has done especially well at Pimlico over his career. He’s been on the shelf since January, but at 7-years-old it could be that he just needed to get his legs back underneath him. Another runner that did not make my final selections that gives me some pause is #5 Torpedo Run, who exits 3 consecutive victories. He’ll probably be the guy I’m sweating out the most if I do indeed leave him off the late Pick 4.

Race 11: The Grade 2 Dixie (5:13 PM)

#4 Kiss the Kid (5/1)
#1 Proudinsky (5/2*)
#3 Parading (9/2)

Ah, the Dixie…such memories. It was in this race last year that my Pick 6 dreams came to a crashing halt when longshot Pays to Dream upset the late Shakis and others, and my despair was forever captured on film (that’s me in the yellow hat in that picture right next to the finish line). Time for some redemption, and what do you know, the gods of horse racing have seen fit to provide me with a Lemon Drop to get the job done! You know I love me some Lemon Drops! #4 Kiss the Kid exits two strong Beyer performances, in cluding a win in the Grade 3 Appleton in March. The victory was his third in 4 starts, having only been defeated by Kip Deville in that sequence. Kip Deville is one of the finest turf runners in North America, and while this field is deep, it doesn’t have any true monsters like him. #1 Proudinksy is a guy I never leave ff my tickets. He ran on Derby day against Einstein, Cowboy Cal, and Court Vision in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and comes right back two weeks later for trainer Bobby Frankel. He’s always a threat on his top stuff, and the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Dixie seems to be his strong suit. #3 Parading is likely the pace setter of the race, and could be handful if he’s allowed to gets too easy a lead. There are others in here with designs on pressing that pace a bit, but his newfound early speed style should suit him very well. #2 Monba and #8 Strike a Deal are also runners worth considering here. Hopefully I won’t make it two years in a row being knocked out in the Dixie.

Race 12: The Grade 1 Preakness (6:15 ET)

#13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5*)
#9 Pioneer of the Nile (5/1)
#7 Papa Clem(12/1)

So it all comes down to this. The 134th running of The Preakness. Over 80 years of history are on the line! Can Rachel Alexandra repeat the brilliance she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago? Clearly the stakes have risen, and she finds herself in the deepest field she’s yet seen. She’s drawn the outside, and will likely have to gun it from the start in order to save ground going into the first turn. #1 Big Drama to the extreme inside also figures to be on the gas early on, creating a situation that might be ripe for the next flight of colts coming home. That should include the group that finished 2, 3, 4 in the Kentucky Derby; #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem, and #3 Musket Man. Much has been made of Pioneer of the Nile either being of questionable quality or potentially “sitting on a big one.” I tend to believe the latter of the two. If not for that brilliant move by Calvin Borel to find the rail with Mine That Bird, Pioneer might have been Derby champion. He should get a firmer surface to run over, and he looms the biggest threat to Queen Rachel’s attempt to achieve eternal glory. The horse that I think is being most overlooked here is #7 Papa Clem. What exactly did this guy do to deserve being ranked so low at 12/1? Was he not less than a length behind Pioneer of the Nile? He’ll be my longshot play, for sure. I’m not really sure what to make of #5 Friesan Fire. I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met Larry Jones at the Alibi Breakfast, I can’t stomach being responsible for another miserable performance, so he shall be the official “horse I shall not speak of” for this race. Truth be told, I think he’s a sneaky threat if he has indeed healed….I’m just not going to name him in my picks. #3 Musket Man is a horse that has really earned my respect over the Triple Crown campaign, and I could see him getting back up into the money again on Saturday. As for the longer shots on the board, call me crazy but Take the Points at 30/1 looks very intriguing. What to make of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird? Well, you’ll never hear me disrsepect that horse again. I’ve learned my lesson. It’s just that without jockey Calvin Borel, and without the cool, damp climate that he seemed to thrive in so perfectly two weeks ago, I’m going to play againts him. Besides, all of that glorious value that made him famous in the Derby will now be gone thanks to being a household name. I’ll be there to cheer for Rachel Alexandra, but I think she might be up against it, which is why I’m ultimately going to cover Pioneer and Papa Clem as well on the Pick 4.

Preakness Selections:

$20 Win #7 Papa Clem
$1 Trifecta: 13/5,7,9/1,2,3,5,7,9,11 = $18

Best of luck to everyone. I’ll likely be “tweeting” along with the action from the Turfside Terrace. If you caught the action today on Black Eyed Susan Day, I was giving out paddock picks and other useful tips. Needless to say my access to the paddock is non existant when I’m across the track in the Turfside Terrace, but I’ll be in prime position to watch the Preakness runners saddle. You can follow along if you like from the link below:

http://twitter.com/kdawg68

Riders up!

Comments : 10 Comments »
Tags: Preakness picks, Preakness selections, bob baffert, larry jones, musket man, take the points, Mine That Bird, pimlico selections, big drama
Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage, horse racing

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