THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run.  It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.

Thanks to increased media coverage this year, much of that growing has occurred RIGHT before our eyes, with as many as 2 million tuning in to watch last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby broadcast on NBC.  This weekend the action shifts to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass, and Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

Yes, friends, the Take Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.

Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago.   The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.

Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passing was received with sadness today.  Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday.  While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say):  There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training.  Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)

We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland.  For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.  In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May.  All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.

The field sets up like this:

• #1 Odysseus (7/2)
• #2 First Dude (8/1)
• #3 Stately Victor (30/1)
• #4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
• #5 Codoy (30/1)
• #6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
• #7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
• #8 Aikenite (4/1)
• #9 Interactif (4/1)

I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:

You all know how fond I am of ODYSSEUS.  He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race.  It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me.  In fact, it stinks.  If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense?  There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.

The whole thing just feels like a bad idea.  He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track.  Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.

What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic.  I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.

“An odd set, stony quality to it.  As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it.  The way you feel before an ill-considered attack.  Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it.  You must even take part, help it fail!”

Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows?  Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?

Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong.  He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on.  Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.

As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby.  My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.

The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace.  Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.

It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field.  Will it be enough to prevail?  I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.

Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well.  It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts.  With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.

Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward.  Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.

Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO.  Paddy is worth considering for good reason.  All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End.  What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer?  Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.

Selections:

I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity.  What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse.  Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.

I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.

• #1 Odysseus (7/2)
• #9 Interactif (4/1)
• #7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)

Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in!  The $1 million Arkansas Derby!  Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking.  The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.

The field sets up like this:

• #1 Super Saver (9/5*)
• #2 Dublin (7/2)
• #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
• #4 Northern Giant (8/1)
• #5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
• #6 New Madrid (20/1)
• #7 Berberis (30/1)
• #8 Line Of David (15/1)
• #9 Pulsion (15/1)

SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position.  So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.

All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire.  Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end.  With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.

DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE.  I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.

If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS.  I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.

Selections:

• #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
• #2 Dublin (7/2)
• #1 Super Saver (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone.  We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings.  May the horse be with you all.