Breeders’ Cup Classic Selections

5 11 2009

Finally – it’s Classic time.  The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million.  Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.

Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite.  Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin.  Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretch that at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator. 

Will things be different this year?  It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night.  Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta?  Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won?   We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.

Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to our TBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature.  Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet.  Contact Handride if you have any questions about how to enter your picks.  I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly. 

Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend.  Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches.  Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.

Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:

  1. Mine That Bird (12/1)
  2. Colonel John (12/1)
  3. Summer Bird (9/2)
  4. Zenyatta (5/2*)
  5. Twice Over (20/1)
  6. Richard’s Kid (12/1)
  7. Gio Ponti (12/1)
  8. Einstein (12/1)
  9. Girolamo (20/1)
  10.  Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  11.  Regal Ransom (20/1)
  12.  Quality Road (12/1)
  13.  Awesome Gem (30/1)

“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric.  Looks like it’s on today…”  (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)

MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derby back in May.  Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.  He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here.  He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.

COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him.  He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart.  It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge.  He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors.  If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance.  For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that. 

SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field.  This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces.  The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park.  Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets.  Am I worried about the synthetics?  Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing.  Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her.  Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado.  He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised.  Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.

ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?”  The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now.  This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing.  If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell.  My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007.  I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.”  The rest, quite literally, is history.  I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail.  If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire.  You KNOW she’ll be flying late. 

TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line.  I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here?  We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1).  He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race.  Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then.  Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.

RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando.  In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets. 

GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment.  So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf?  I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance.  The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December.  If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances.  He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.

EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years.  I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness.  Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing.  His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.”  A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle.  Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here. 

GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy.  He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.  For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise.  I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom.  He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before.  That might be asking just a tad too much here.

RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic.  The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts.  Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm).  In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero.  The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here.  In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen.  As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).

REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year.  Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2).  He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead.  Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here.  Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.

QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009.  This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race.  The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York.  I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on.  It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor.  One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces. 

AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile.  I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.

How do I see this race playing out?  I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on .  As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her.  RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER.  This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back. 

I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages.  I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob.  Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line.  No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given.  God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.

Selections:

  • #10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  • #4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
  • #3 Summer Bird (9/2)

Best of luck to all!  May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember.  Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well.  For quick access, you can locate those posts here.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Colonel John, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Mine That Bird, Quality Road, Santa Anita, Summer Bird, TBA, Zenyatta

Zenyatta’s return highlights BIG weekend of racing action

9 10 2009

Another weekend is upon us.  Is it just me, or does this seem to happen like clockwork every 7 days?  Very strange.  You’ll forgive me for drifting here and there as we’ve got twelve big races to cover in what promises to be an exciting weekend of racing.  The biggest (and baddest) name on the entries is obviously Zenyatta – the undefeated mare attempting to equal the feat of Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive start of her career. 

Here’s a quick roundup of the major races being run at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet.  I’ve organized them by order of post time so that they flow in sequence – which means we’ll be bouncing between the tracks a bit here. 

Belmont – Race 4 – The Jamaica Handicap (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – 2:35 (ET)

We kick things off with the 60th running of the Jamaica H.   The two horses that appear to have the biggest shot here are #2 COURAGEOUS CAT and #6 TAKE THE POINTS.  The latter we know from the Preakness earlier in the year and his victory in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 8.  COURAGEOUS CAT is the horse I’ve got to take here.  Despite being the morning line favorite at 2/1, he might wind up offering slightly better value if TAKE THE POINTS takes a lot of money at the windows. The son of Storm Cat is also named for one of my favorite childhood cartoon stars.  Most folks don’t remember Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, but I do.  #3 GRASSY looks like a runner with a big shot in here as well.  I could also make a case for adding in #7 MR SANDMAN and #1 STRAIGHT STORY on the bottom of the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #2 Courageous Cat (2/1*)
  • #6 Take the Points (5/2)
  • #3 Grassy (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 5 – The Woodford (Grade 3) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – 3:23 (ET)

We visit Keeneland for the first time today for the 13th running of The Woodford.  I’m not much of a turf sprint handicapper, and I know it’s one of my weaker areas, so we’ll keep this one simple.  I like #2 MR. NIGHTLINGER in here, despite the 2/1 odds. The son of Indian Charlie has not had quite the banner year many of us expected to have, with only 1 victory thus far in 5 starts.  One of the main reasons I’m backing him though is that he’s got talent and shows early speed – something which can be noteworthy from time to time at Keeneland.  He will be tested though, as #7 SILVER TIMBER looks like a good one for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Prime Timber is the most likely to get first run at MR. NIGHTLINGER if he can’t hold on out in front.  #6 DIE DATE is another horse worth considering in this field.  He gives you a consistently even effort every time out, although he may be better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets.  Other horses worth ticket consideration would appear to be #5 BULLET FROM ABROAD and #8 FORT PRADO. 

Selections:

  • #2 Mr. Nightlinger (2/1*)
  • #7 Silver Timber (5/2)
  • #6 Due Date (7/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 6 – The Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs – 4:00 (ET)

We stay in Keeneland for the 29th running of the TCA.  #8 INFORMED DECISION is the overwhelming favorite on the morning line at 3/5.  While that might be cause to try and beat her, the daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven deadly (3 for 3) at Keeneland in her career.  She’s also won all 5 of her synthetic starts.  Just keep that in mind if you try to take her down.  The most logical contender would seem to be #6 CARLSBAD, who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delmar last out. Tyler Baze is the listed rider, meaning he’s left the friendly confines of California.  There’s enough value here on the morning line (5/1) to warrant stong consideration. #5 BOLD UNION is another interesting runner who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delaware.  The Dixie Union filly has only raced once over the synthetics, and it was nothing to write home about, but she does have speed and that can be a big factor in sprint races. I like the two “Ashley” horses (#1 AWESOME ASHLEY and #4 PIOUS ASHLEY) enough to include them on the bottom of my tickets, and I might take a chance underneath with #3 PORTE BONHEUR as well, as she’s proven she can handle the synthetics at Woodbine last November. 

Selections:

  • #8 Informed Decision (3/5*)
  • #6 Carlsbad (5/1)
  • #5 Bold Union (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 7 – The First Lady (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 4:35 (ET)

You know, we just love Keeneland so much that we’ll hang around for another race, whaddya think?  The First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 1 mile over the turf.  #5 FOREVER TOGETHER is currently listed atop most rankings of oder turf females in the U.S., and will be the morning line favorite at even odds.  The daughter of Belong to Me was absolutely dominating at times last year, but has had some trouble putting together consistent victories this year.  If her current pattern of running 1st, 2nd – 1st, 2nd continues, she’s due for a victory.  If only it were that simple.  Working in her favor will be the fact that she gets a little pace to run into with #4 TIZAQUEENA and #9 SUPERIOR STORM on her flanks.  That should help her have a big race.  #6 MY PRINCESS JESS and #8 DIAMONDRELLA are two runners who could also get good trips and who would obviously offer more value on the tote board.  At least work them into your exotics.

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (3/5*)
  • # 6 My Princess Jess (6/1)
  • #4 Tizaqueena (12/1)

 

Belmont – Race 8 – The Frizette (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 4:43 (ET)

It’s back to New York for the 62nd running of the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies. #3 NONA MIA looks like the horse to beat here coming off an impressive 12 length score out to break her maiden.  Being a daughter of Empire Maker, I’m not as concerned about how she’ll handle the distance as perhaps I ought to be. #4 AWESOME MARIA should have a say as to how things turn out as well.  The daughter of Maria’s Mon is already a Grade 2 winner having defeated several of today’s rivals in the Matron on September 19.  The rest of the field looks fairly even behind these two.  #6 FRANNY FREUD, #5 TOUCHING BEAUTY, and #2 DEVIL MAY CARE all came up as having chances to hit the board based on my own personal handicapping methods, as did #7 WORSHIP THE MOON.  I’ll probably box the top two choices on top and then take all of these guys on the bottom of the trifecta.  That’s my initial plan at least.  We’ll see if se can get a good look at them in the post parade to narrow it down a bit more.  I went with TOUCHING BEAUTY as my 3rd choice by a slim margin – mostly due to the fact that she was sired by Tapit. 

Selections:

  • #3 Nonna Mia (5/2)
  • #4 Awesome Maria (2/1*)
  • #5 Touching Beauty (5/1)

 

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree)  – Race 4 – The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – 2:00 (PT)

Time to head out west to the lovely Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita for the 33rd running of the Yellow Ribbon.  The two big names in this field are #1 MAGICAL FANTASY and #7 VISIT.  MAGICAL FANTASY exits 3 consecutive victories, including two at the Grade 1 level in the John C Mabee and the Gamely.  This is clearly one of the better turf mares on the California circuit and she should be respected as such. VISIT is a 4-year-old that has always seemed on the cusp of greatness, yet has a tendency to run for minor slices of the pie.  Garrett Gomez will get acquainted once again with the daughter of Oasis Dream , who should be firing at about the same time as MAGICAL FANTASY.  This could be a good battle between these two runners in the stretch.  As for the rest of the field, #4 BLACK MAMBA is a dangerous runner who can jump up and run a big one from time to time. Trainer John Sadler might have her primed for a big effort this weekend.  I’m also familiar enough with both #2 LEMONETTE and #3 LEMON CHIFFON that I’ll probably include them on the bottom of my tickets as well.  If I’m not mistaken, LEMON CHIFFON was one of the horses I hit at the NTRA Handicapping Contest last fall in Las Vegas. 

Selections:

  • #1 Magical Fantasy (8/5*)
  • #7 Visit (5/1)
  • #4 Black Mamba (5/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 8 – The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 5:10 (ET)

Now we head back to Kentucky for more 2-year-old action in the Breeders’ Futurity.  The colt I’m most anxious to see here is #2 BACKTALK.  The son of Smarty Jones had won 3 in a row to start his career before drawing the 12 hole last out in the Hopeful.  Will he like the synthetics at Keeneland?  Well, if his bullet workout there on October 5 is any indication, he out to handle the surface switch just fine.  That being said, I’m going with #8 AKENITE as my top choice.  Why?  Well, the son of Yes it’s True will offer some value at the windows, and might be overlooked.  Plus, look at that last race where he lost to Dublin and Aspire.  Those two are the top choices for the Champagne, run just 5 minutes later at Belmont (and coming up next in our selections).  If those two are among the best in the young and developing division, then that could be a race to key on.   Maybe if they don’t leave him with as much to do and go for a more even effort?  It’s worth a chance is all i’m saying.  #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is a logical contender as well, coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Best Pal and the Delmar Futurity.  I have some questions about how this one will handle the distance, but I like that they’ve trained her at 7 furlongs following a game effort at that same distance. Note that Tyler Baze will also be aboard this runner, so he’s got a couple of potentially live mounts on the card.  A horse that might get overlooked and is in all honesty probably compromised by their starting position is #14 STATELY VICTOR.  Don’t be surprised if this son of Ghostzapper goes on to become the best horse of this field in due time. Whether he shows that on Saturday not is a bit of question mark, but I think he’s worth at least including underneath.   There’s plenty of other directions you could go here, depending on which horse you may already be familiar with or have developed some affection for.

Selections:

  • #8 Akenite (5/1)
  • #2 Backtalk (4/1*)
  • #7 Make Music for Me (6/1)

 

Belmont – Race 9 – The Champagne (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 5:15 (ET)

We head back to New York for the final time this afternoon for the Champagne.  If you start reading this and feel as though you’re having deja vu, don’t worry – we did just talk about some of these runners.  #5 DUBLIN comes into the race as the victor of the Hopeful at Saratoga.  In that race he held on to deny #3 ASPIRE, who will get the benefit of an extra furlong in his attempt to turn the tables on his rival.  Don’t I kind of have to go with a horse named ASPIRE since this is The Aspiring Horseplayer?  That’s just too strong a vibe for me to pass up.  In all honesty, I rate these two extremely close to one another, and while if my life depended on it, I’d probably side with DUBLIN, I”ll take a chance and go with ASPIRE here.  The horse that might be the x-factor here is #6 HOMEBOYKRIS for Rick Dutrow Jr.  #4 DISCREETLY MINE also rates a chance here as this son of Mineshaft did run well against Dutrow’s other prized possession in the 2-year-old division thus far, D’Funnybone.

Selections:

  • #3 Aspire (3/1)
  • #5 Dublin (8/5*)
  • #6 Homeboykris (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 9 – The Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) -5:45 (ET)

The finale of the marquee races at Keeneland for Saturday is the 24th running of the Shadwell Turf Mile.  I’ll consider taking a chance here with #9 COURT VISION, despite the fact that the son of Gulch has not won a race since the Hollywood Derby last November. He’s running for Dutrow now, which in itself is cause for improvement, and adds the blinkers back on, which he’s had off the last 3 races.  Call me crazy but I think this helps keep him focused in the stretch and gives him a chance for the upset.  The monster of the race though is #7 JUSTENUFFHUMOR.  The son of Distorted Humor exits 6 consecutive victories, including the Bernard Baruch Handicap last out at Saratoga.  If he’s good enough to beat my boy Cowboy Cal, he’s good enough to take this field. #5 BATTLE OF HASTINGS is a horse I’ve given out several times here successfully, so you know he’ll be on my tickets again.

Selections:

  • #7 Justenuffhumor (5/2*)
  • #9 Court Vision (7/2)
  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 6 – The Oak Tree Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 3:00 (PT)

Things get a little bit calmer as we head out west to stay to finish up the day, beginning with the Oak Tree Mile.  Notice that there’s a theme here today where I talk about a horse in one race, and he shows up in the next.  #9 COWBOY CAL comes into the Mile having finished 2nd in the Bernard Baruch.  There’s something about this guy that I really admire.  He’s a gamer – and I think he could be in store for a big effort.  He’ll need to avoid a speed duel with #7 MONTERREY JAZZ though, and ought to press the pace from 2nd to give himself his best chance.  Coming off the pace will be #10 WHATSTHESCRIPT and #4 GLOBAL HUNTER, who each have big shots in here as well.  I’m going to stick with my COWBOY CAL on top, with GLOBAL HUNTER running big for 2nd.  WHATSTHESCRIPT has a tendency to run 3rd or 4th, and I’ll use him on the bottom.  Do give some props to the filly, #8 ALLICANSAYIS WOW – as she steps up to take on boys again.  She ran well for 2nd in the Delmar Mile, and finished ahead of Lethal Heat, a horse who (you guessed it) will come up again later in our picks.  I’d also keep MONTERREY JAZZ around in your tickets, being as that he is the speed of the speed.

Selections:

  • #9 Cowboy Cal (2/1*)
  • #4 Global Hunter (8/1)
  • #10 Whatsthescript (5/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 7 – The Goodwood (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – 3:30 (PT)

The feature race of the day is the final major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic – the 28th running of the Goodwood.  Wht a race we’ve got in store.  #4 COLONEL JOHN tries to get back to his winning ways on the main track following a disappointing 5th place finish in the Pacific Classic.  I thought the son o f Tiznow had a horrible trip that day and am expecting the real COLONEL JOHN to show up again this weekend.  He was, after all, my Derby selection back in 2008.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings the hot longshot winner #3 RICHARD’S KID in for the Goodwood with visions of the Classic dancing in his head.  Was that last win in the Pacific Classic a fluke, or has Baffert turned this guy into a top runner?  I wouldn’t let Bob Baffert burn you twice, if you know what I mean.  Of course, there are also some runners in here both seeking to regain respect and who are favorites of many fans.  #2 TIAGO is one class=”mceItemHidden”> of the few remnants of the talented 2007 crop of 3-year-olds that produced Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Tiago always was in their shadows, and despite ome success as a 4-year-old and some sexy Beyer figures on his resume, he’s only won $24,000 in 2 starts this year.  If he comes back like his old self, he actually makes some sense here.  This is the same team, remember, that gave the world Zenyatta (and Giacomo).  #5 TRES BORRACHOS still has the coolest name in all of racing (“3 drunks”).  And of course, there’s that guy that won the Kentucky Derby at 50/1, #10 MINE THAT BIRD.  How great would it be to see the son of Birdstone come back and run a big race?  He’s been on synthetics before – hell, he’s won on ‘em before, so if his throat surgery has got him back to the way he was this spring, he could make some noise here in his 1st start against older horses.   I haven’t even had a chance to mention #9 INFORMED (son of Tiznow), #6 MONZANTE (winner of the 2008 Eddie Read), and #7  PARADING (disappointing 4th in the Pacific Classic last out).  This looks like a great race – hopefully a glimmer of things to come on Breeders’ Cup weekend this November.

Selections:

  • #4 Colonel John (3/1*)
  • #4 Richard’s Kid (8/1)
  • #10 Mine That Bird (7/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree – Race 8 – The Lady’s Secret (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 4:00 (PT)

We wind up the day with the return of the undefeated Zenyatta – the super star of west coast thoroughbred racing.  I’ve covered this race already for the NTRA, and you’re welcome to read my assessment there.  The biggest question we’ll be looking to answer won’t come until after the race, once trainer John Shirreffs has had a chance to see how ZENYATTA comes out of the race.  That will ultimately determine whether she runs against boys on the Classic on Saturday, or defends her crown against the Ladies’ on Friday in the Breeders’ Cup.  Last time we saw her, ZENYATTA was flying home like a rocket towards a desperate photo finish with longshot #8 ANAABA’S CREATION.  This race could play out in similar fashion without an abundance of speed signed on.  Also note the presence of #1 COCOA BEACH, who in case folks forgot ran 2nd behind ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last year here at Santa Anita.  Hopefully we can get a good gauge on how she’s shaping up heading into the championships as well.  Stablemate #4 LIFE IS SWEET draws the misfortune of facing the monster that is ZENYATTA once again, after earlier reports that she would be pointing towards a turf race.  Then there’s #6 LETHAL HEAT, who just ran against the boys last weekend in the Cal Cup Classic (finishing 2nd).  She comes right back in what should be her final tune up for the Ladies’ Classic as well.  I think the class of ZENYATTA is too much for ‘em all in the end.  Look for ANAABA”S CREATIOn or COCOA BEACH underneath in second.  I’ll give LETHAL HEAT a big shot to hit the board as well along with LIFE IS SWEET.

Selections:

  • #5 Zenyatta (2/5*)
  • #8 Anaaba’s Creation (12/1)
  • #1 Cocoa Beach (6/1)

 

Whew – I need a break after all that ‘capping.  :)

Best of luck to all – and don’t forget about Icon Project this Sunday in the Spinster at Keeneland.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Colonel John, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Mine That Bird, Santa Anita, Tiago, Zenyatta

Picking a winner in the Breeders’ Cup Classic

23 10 2008

Here it is – the Breeders’ Cup Classic!!!  Perhaps never before in it’s storied history has the Breeders’ Cup Classic been shrouded in so much mystery.  This is obviously due in large part to this year’s running being the first conducted over a synthetic surface.  We all know the main story lines – this was supposed to be the showdown of the year/decade/century between Curlin and Big Brown until a freak injury ended the son of Boundary’s racing career.  Now the picture is further confused by the entry of some top notch turf runners from across the pond in Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade.

Let’s start with the obvious.  If the Curlin we’ve all come to know and love over the last 20 months shows up and takes to the synthetic track the way he has to the various dirt tracks he’s raced at across the globe (and arguably his one try on the grass at Belmont as well), then it’s hard to see anyone defeating the son of Smart Strike.  At the 1 1/4 mile distance he’s simply the best horse on the planet when running on a “main track.”   If his workouts are any indication, he seems to not be bothered at all by the Pro-Ride synthetic surface of Santa Anita.  His public work last week was visually impressive, but it’s of course a whole different story when you’re actually running a race.  There’s simply no way we can know how he’ll respond, and as such 7/5 is a risky venture.

You know me though – I’m the self proclaimed “world’s biggest Curlin fan” (aren’t all Curlin fans the self-proclaimed “world’s biggest?” If I ever meet someone who is a bigger fan, I’ll have to retreat to the presumption that “world’s biggest” implies my ability to consume mass quantities of ball park frank hot dogs at one sitting) – which means I’ve got to back him, so of course he’ll be my pick.  I still must caution against using him as a single on the multi-race exotics though. There’s just too many questions to be that aggressive for such a short (7/5) reward in my opinion.  Plus, let’s not forget that there could be a mandatory payout on as much as $5,000,000 in the Pick 6 pool when all is said and done, so let’s not do anything stupid to jeopardize our chances of cashing is all I’m saying.

Looking at the rest of the field, there’s some serious value here.  I’m sure our European friends are licking their lips at the idea of getting 10/1 on either Henry or the Duke!  I’ll be honest here and say that Duke of Marmalade is the one of these two that most concerns me as a Curlin fan.  He seems to be in very sharp form coming into this.  Yes, I know he finished 7th in the Arc, but he was only beaten by 3 3/4 lengths.  Prior to that he had rattled off 5 consecutive victories.  If this guy has shipped and is ready to roll, he’ll be a major force.

Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator have sort of taken turns beating each other over in Europe.  Henry is probably the better known of the two, but Raven’s Pass has been in a bit sharper form recently.  My biggest question with Raven’s Pass (beyond the surface question that so many of the entries face) will be whether or not 1 1/4 miles is his best distance?  He may be more of a mile type runner.  We shall see.

Three dark horses for this race are the Japanese import Casino Drive, California native Colonel John, and the well traveled Go Between.  If I had to separate them, I’d probably prefer them in this order: Go Between, Casino Drive, and Colonel John.

Casino Drive will likely enter with the greater “hype” surrounding him.  He was, after all, the horse many had pinned their hopes to for the Belmont this June before a slight injury caused the horse to scratch at the last minute.  Since then he’s followed what some U.S. fans might consider an odd training pattern with only one “prep” race (an Allowance victory here at Santa Anita) leading up to the classic. What we know of this guy is that he seemed to do fine over the Pro-Ride, distance shouldn’t be a problem as he was considering the “marathon” (1 1/2 miles), and he’s got solid bloodlines being a half to Jazil and a son of Mineshaft out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour.  He’ll still need his best stuff though to get by Curlin and the others.  I am expecting a game effort, just not a victory. 

Go Between could be the forgotten man on the tote board.  He doesn’t have the star quality of some of the other runners and perhaps isn’t as “sexy” a choice.   Still, this is a guy who has run very well over the synthetics and has battled gamely with the likes of Heatseeker – who at one point I thought was on the road to becoming the favorite in the Classic.  I’d almost guarantee that Go Between will hit the board on Saturday.  At 8/1 you’re getting a horse with much fewer questions compared to the bigger named competitors.  In other words, you could do a lot worse than using this guy in your multi-race exotic wagers.

Colonel John and I have a bit of a love/hate relationship.  Well, that’s not entirely true as the Colonel actually has no opinion of me.  I like him – always have.  In fact, I made him my 2008 Kentucky Derby selection – only to wind up looking foolish to friends and family.  Perhaps I shouldn’t remind folks of such handicapping selections as they can only serve to dampen credibility – but I”m the type of guy that wears his heart on his sleeve and I’ve got no shame in being honest about my picks that don’t turn out right in the end.  That being said, this was a different horse Travers this August at Saratoga.  Who knew the Colonel had it in him?  He posted a career high Beyer Speed Figure of 106 and nailed Mambo in Seattle to prevail.  Now he heads back home to what I believe is his preferred territory in California.  Can we expect the same?  I may like the guy a lot (I’m always fond of the Tiznow colts), but I can’t see it happening here.  He’s going to find the competition a bit steeper than Mambo in Seattle and Pyro in my opinion. 

Then there’s Tiago. I’ve always been fond of this guy as well.  In fact, he and Curlin were my main plays in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  While that didn’t pan out as planned, it’s been fun watching his career.  We’ll see if he can turn the tables on Curlin, but he’s faced him a few times before and has never been able to finish ahead of him on dirt.  I’m not expecting a change even though we’re on the Pro-Ride. 

Fairbanks is likely going to be the controlling pace.  He’s a nice horse, don’t get me wrong, I’m just not a fan of the front runners over the Pro-Ride, even if they are “controlling” speed.  Through in the fact that he’s a complete unknown on synthetics and his two turf tries were not anything to write home about (albeit at the beginning of his career when he was not the same horse he is now), and I’ll pass.  Maybe he can hang on for a share, but even that’s pushing it in my opinion.  I see him coming back to the field as they enter the stretch and being gobbled up by the better runners.

That leavesus with Champs Elysees as the last real possible longshot (as I’m just not feeling it for Smooth Air or Student Council).  Here’s what I like about “the Champs”: he’s run consistently well on every type of footing he’s faced – grass, dirt, synthetics – you name it and he’s got a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure on it.  He’s also breaking from the outside which means he’ll get a clean start.  I do think he’s a better turf runner overall, but his versatility suggests he won’t be one of the ones struggling to kick it into gear over the Pro-Ride.  He’s an interesting possibility for the superfecta wagers to say the least – although I would be shocked if he prevailed and won the Classic. 

I’ll stick with Curlin as my main choice.  I’ve got to ride the horse that got me here, and this is likely the swan song for the colt that has meant so much to me these last two seasons.  I’m deeply saddened by the prospect of never getting to cheer for him again, so I plan on standing on my sofa, screaming my lungs out for him to “mow ‘em down!!!!” as the field turns for home.  The Smart Strike colts are supposed to be a fairly solid “1st time synthetic” play, and I’ve got no reason to think he won’t adapt to his surroundings.  I LOVE the idea to ship him immediately after the Jockey Club Gold Cup and give him as much time to become acclimated as equinely possible. He’s a freak, and I both hope and suspect he’ll be adding more honors to his already prestigious “$10 million man” title this weekend.  Actually, he’s more than a freak.  There are plenty of “freaks” out there – this guy is “special” – and it’s been the honor of my life to watch him run. 

Here’s hoping you’ve got one more good one in you, ole boy.  Just like it should be in a perfect world scenario, if anyone wants to claim the crown they’re going to have to get by you to do it.  This may not be the ground of our choosing - it goes without saying we’d prefer a true dirt track – but when those gates open none of that will matter.  Just trust that Robby Albarado will point you in the right direction, then cock that head of yours rounding the final turn like you always do, line up your targets in your sight, and run ‘em down with authority.  Let’s close this final chapter with a high note.  Let’s end this story the way it’s meant to be ended – in victory!


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Curlin, Colonel John, Santa Anita, Breeders' Cup, Go Between, Casino Drive

It’s Travers Time

22 08 2008

This Saturday’s 139th running of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Track looks like it may be the best 3-year-old race of the year.  Certainly it’s the most competitive from top to bottom since the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. We may not have Big Brown, but we’ve got a full field of 12 contenders and what looks like a great betting race.

The field for the 1 1/4 miles G1 Travers:

  1. Tale of Ekati  (E. Prado) 20/1
  2. Colonel John (G. Gomez) 8/1
  3. Da’ Tara (A. Garcia) 8/1
  4. Tizbig (C. Velasquez) 30/1
  5. Macho Again (J. Leparoux) 6/1
  6. Cool Coal Man (J. Velazquez) 15/1
  7. Amped (J. Chavez) 30/1
  8. Harlem Rocker (E. Coa) 4/1
  9. Mambo in Seattle (R. Albarado) 5/1
  10.  Tres Borrachos (T.Baze) 15/1
  11.  Pyro (S.Bridgmohan) 7/2*
  12.  Court Vision (K. Desormeaux) 12/1

Let’s start with a feel for how the pace sets up.  Looking at the race on paper we appear to have the makings of a speed duel between Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara and Tizbig. In other words a showdown could be brewing between a pair of Tiznow colts, who are known for having quite a bit of fight in them.  Add to that the fact that the two are posted eyeball to eyeball in the 3 and 4 holes, respectively, and it looks like we’ve got a battle on our hands up front early on.  I’ll be honest, I’m not sure which one is quicker.  Da’ Tara would appear to need the lead a bit more, but Tizbig is stepping up in class and will likely need to be fairly quick out of the gate. 

This should set things up for one of the runners coming off the pace. The question is who might get too close if a speed duel occurs and who might find themselves having some late traffic trouble?  Pyro is favored at 7/2, but I’m betting that won’t be the case at post time.  The two horses everyone is talking about are Todd Pletcher’s Harlem Rocker and the Neil Howard trained Mambo in Seattle.  I’d tend to agree that they look like the pair to beat on paper.

We’ll start with Harlem Rocker.  He graces the cover of the Saturday Daily Racing Form.  The impressive son of Macho Uno has run up a 4 for 5 lifetime record on his way to $445,000 in earnings.   The win that sticks out is the Grade 3 Withers where he defeated J Be K by 2 1/2 lengths and earned a 106 Beyer figure.  However, the race that most horseplayers are focusing on is his last effort.  While the 90 Beyer speed figure in the Prince of Wales may not seem like a winner on paper, it’s important to note that Harlem Rocker fought back in the stretch and refused to go down in defeat.  That’s big.  He strikes me as a colt with a lot of upside that we probably haven’t seen the best from.

Mambo in Seattle is a fast improving son of Kingmambo who will be piloted by Robby Albarado.  I know a lot of people are picking this guy and I can see why.  Let me just make the argument though that despite the sexy improving Beyer figures, that this is a horse “classing up”, potentially quite a bit.  This of course despite the fact that I don’t think this year’s 3-year-old crop was on par with those of recent memory.  Collectively I think this field will give him all he can handle, and he’s going to have to earn it if he’s to prevail. 

Pyro is a shaky favorite in my opinion.  Don’t get me wrong.  I love the guy.  He was one of my favorites leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and I thought the Jim Dandy was a lock for him. Unfortunately he was upset by Macho Again, who will 6 lanes to his inside at the start of the race.  I’d look for a better performance from Pyro.  This is a battle tested member of this field, from his races against 2-year-old champion War Pass as a juvenile to his victories in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Northern Dancer.   I think he’ll turn the tables on Macho Again today, but I’m a bit worried drawing the outside might leave him ducking in to save ground early on and then encountering some traffic problems if/when the field starts coming back to him.  He’s a player and he can win this thing with a solid run, but I’ll pass on the morning line favoritism and go with Harlem Rocker for the win.

As for the rest of the field, yeah…I guess I’ve got to own up to it everytime this guy runs.  Fine – I was a Colonel John guy going into the Derby. There, I’ve said it.  In my defense I had Big Brown ranked #1 from the Florida Derby on, but that matters not when you give out the Colonel as your Derby pick.  I still like him, just not here and not on dirt.  I’d love to see him thunder home on top, but I’m not seeing it. 

Macho Again looks quite playable underneath at 6/1.   When you consider he’s been 2nd to Big Brown and has defeated Pyro, it’s hard not to like the “other” son of Macho Uno in the field today.  If you scratch a line through his Belmont run (you’d do it for Big Brown, right?) then his Derby Trial, Preakness, and Jim Dandy runs look pretty darn good against this field.  I have a feeling he’ll be right there in the thick of things in what should be a great finish to the Travers. 

I’ll paly Harlem Rocker for the win over Pyro and Mambo in Seattle for place.  To fill out the trifecta I’ll add in Macho Again for show.  I’m also going to toss in Cool Coal Man who may get a nice, if uninspiring trip.  He’s got a habit of sticking around if you toss out the obvious scratch in the Derby and a synthetics debacle in the Blue Grass.

8/9, 11/5, 6, 9, 11 ($6)

Unless of course one of you convinces me to go in another direction.


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Categories : Colonel John, Handicapping Selections, Pyro, Saratoga

Derby Selections – It’s Time to Pick a Winner

2 05 2008

It’s hard to believe that in just 24 hours we’ll be gearing up for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Derby day is a special day for horse racing fans around the country, and the single day on the calendar where our sport takes center stage nationally.

I’ve blogged earlier in the week about the inherent difficulties of picking a Derby winner from a field of 20.  It’s a tough, thankless job (except for the winning wagers, of course) that more often than not leaves you looking foolish publicly.  Even the great Steven Crist, the nation’s premier pick 6 player and the chairman and publisher of the Daily Racing Form, went winless from 1992 to 2006 before correctly selecting Street Sense in the 2007.

As difficult as it may be, it’s time to step up to the plate and make some selections here.  I’ll caveat these selections by stating that I tend to go a little crazy in the Derby and play multiple tickets.  In other words, I won’t be restricting myself to only what I type here.  Roughly 5 minutes before post time I’ll likely be feverishly entering a slew of trifecta combos.  You only live once, right?  

Let’s take one last look at the field, with jockey and morning line odds information:

  1. Cool Coal Man (Julien Leparoux) – 30/1
  2. Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa) - 15/1
  3. Anak Nakal (Rafael Bejarano) – 30/1
  4. Court Vision (Garrett Gomez) - 20/1
  5. Eight Belles (Gabriel Saez) – 20/1
  6. Z Fortune (Robbie Albarado) – 15/1
  7. Big Truck (J. Castellano) – 50/1
  8. Visionaire (Jose Lezcano) – 20/1
  9. Pyro (Sean Bridgmohan) – 6/1
  10. Colonel John (Corey Nakatani) – 4/1
  11. Z Humor (Rene Douglas) – 30/1
  12. Smooth Air (M.R. Cruz) – 20/1
  13. Bob Black Jack (Richard Migliore) – 20/1
  14. Monba (Ramon Dominguez) – 15/1
  15. Adriano (Edgar Prado) – 30/1
  16. Denis of Cork (Calvin Borel) – 20/1
  17. Cowboy Cal (J.R. Velasquez) – 20/1
  18. Recpaturetheglory (E.T. Baird) – 20/1
  19. Gayego(M.E. Smith) – 15/1
  20. Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux) – 3/1*

Let’s begin by dispensing with the obvious.  Big Brown is the best horse in this race.  I think that’s pretty clear and in my mind is beyond debate.  To win the Derby, someone’s going to have to defeat him and that will be no small challenge.  I don’t really buy into the “knocks” against him.  I think his feet are fine (despite the front bandages you’ll see on display on Saturday).  I don’t mind that he’s “lightly raced” (Curlin, anyone?), or that he hasn’t faced the toughest of fields.  I think we’ve seen his talent showcased and there simply isn’t another horse in the field that is on equal skill level as Dutrow’s colt.  

The main competitors that have a real shot at upsetting Big Brown are: Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego, Eight Belles, Monba, and Z Fortune.   I don’t really think anyone else in this race can be considered a win candidate.  Obviously I can’t play all of these guys and  Big Brown, so let’s see if we can take a stand somewhere.

Right out of the gate, I’m of the opinion that Big Brown will actually rocket for the lead, then try to cut over and save as much ground as he can heading for the first turn. While the 20 hole does mean he’ll be wide, it also assures him of a clean start and a chance to kick into high gear as soon as he desires.  

The trouble for Big Brown right out of the gate is that potential speed duelers Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory are to his inside, along with the quick Gayego.  Big Brown will have to clear them in order to collapse as much ground as he’d like to.  Most likely, some combo of this grouping will get to the lead and then start angling inwards. 

The next challenge for Big Brown will be the speedy Bob Black Jack breaking from the 13 hole.  If he gets a good start, we could wind up with a pace setting duel that could tax the leaders and open things up for the off-the-pacers and closers.  Big Brown should be good enough to get past Bob Black Jack, or he may decide to let Bob Black Jack have the lead (I think that would be wiser….why fight him for the lead when you don’t need to?).

If this goes as planned than Big Brown should be in a decidedly nice position to make one move and sprint away to win by a decent margin on Saturday.  That being said, this is a lot to ask from any horse, let alone a lightly raced 3 year old breaking from the extreme outside, hence the reason he won’t be my top choice.   Do I think he can win?  Absolutely, no question about it.  Do I think he should win?  That’s where the picture gets a bit fuzzier.

If (and this may be a big “if” when all is said and done), Big Brown were to get hung wide, or encounter a speed duel, or god forbid something wrong were to happen – just who would the race setup for?   Gayego could be close behind Big Brown, but I’m having trouble envisioning him getting the extra furlong comfortably from so wide.  Eight Belles could be in a nice position from the inside of the pack, but she has a tendency to not break well and from the comments on her recent workouts was observed to be “lugging in” towards the rail.  That could spell problems for her. 

I think we’d have to look a bit deeper to the guys who should be putting in their runs as the field turns for home.  It’s all going to come down to position, but two horses we know can fight through traffic are Colonel John and Pyro.  Neither is as fast as Big Brown, but this is horse racing and the race doesn’t always go to the fastest horse of the field.  They’ll need some burnout happening in front of them, but they may get just that.   Of these two, while I’ve said for weeks that I don’t take anything away from Pyro just because of his dismal Bluegrass effort, I do prefer Colonel John.  In fact, I’m anointing Colonel John as my official Derby selection. 

Please don’t mistake that last sentence as meaning that I’m foolish enough to think Big Brown won’t win.  He probably will.  I’m just not the type of guy that can take the favorite in the Derby unless there’s no reason I can support anyone else.  The 20 hole and the speed to his inside is enough for me to go with Colonel John, but you’d best believe there will be some tickets on Big Brown as well.  He’s just too good to totally pass up.  I made the mistake of picking against him in the Florida Derby, and I’ll be darned if he’s going to burn me twice, even if he is my “2nd choice.”

Colonel John has that fight in him that all the Tiznow colts seem to show.  I know he hasn’t been over the dirt yet, but he started to look like he really took to it as the week wore on.  He’s bred for this type of race and has to be considered a player.  I’m worried that his odds may come down a bit too much due to his post position compared with Big Brown’s, but there’s nothing I can do about that as I type this over 24 hours in advance of the race.  I think he may actually run his best race over dirt, despite how accomplished he has been over the synthetics.  Also, while I definitely concede that he’s not as quick as some of the others, I’m not of the opinion that we can compare the Beyer figures of Santa Anita to other tracks this year as easily as we might assume.  True, that track seemed to play to his running style, but as the meet wore on it also tended to reduce speed figures. 

The other horses I really like here are Pyro, Monba, Z Fortune, and Eight Belles.  Court Vision could be sitting on his best race with the addition of blinkers, but I still don’t think he’s a real win candidate.  My wife is playing Z Fortune all the way – and actually boxing him up with Pyro for an Asmussen exacta.   Boy, can you tell the kind of cumulative effect Curlin has had on my household? 

Gayego is the horse I wanted to pick.  I dreamt about him winning when I was in California a few weeks ago.  I loved the way he transitioned to dirt in the Arkansas Derby and think he has a bright future ahead of him.  I’m not incredibly fond of the extra furlong on Saturday or the post position in the 19 hole.  It pains me to do so, but I’m passing on him as a win candidate.  I’ll have a casual bet on him “just in case” - but I won’t be giving him out as a winner here. 

The main trifecta I’ll play is a bit deeper than I usually advise, which is only to be expected with such a large field.  I’ll use both Big Brown and Colonel John for the win.  I’ll add in Pyro and Z Fortune for place, and will then add Eight Belles, Court Vision, and Monba for show.  Total cost $30.

10, 20 with 6, 9, 10, 20 with 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 20

Best of luck to all of you.  Here’s hoping we get a Derby to remember.  It would be great to see Big Brown go for a Triple Crown.  Can’t say I’d be disappointed to see any of the other horses mentioned here win (Pyro, Gayego, Colonel John, Monba, Z Fortune, or Eight Belles). 


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Categories : Big Brown, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Monba, Pyro, Z Fortune

Post Positions and Odds Set for the Kentucky Derby

30 04 2008

The field is set.  The post positions have been drawn. Even the morning line odds have been established for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  All that’s left to do now is pick a winner, lay the bets, and wait for the gates to open.

I’m not going to officially make a pick here now – as I’ve still got several days to mull things over.   I think most of you are already familiar with the horses I think most highly of.  I’ll do one final ranking of the contenders on Friday along with my picks.  For now, let’s take a look at the field.  

  1.  Cool Coal Man (20/1)
  2.  Tale of Ekati (15/1)
  3.  Anak Nakal (30/1)
  4.  Court Vision (20/1)
  5.  Eight Belles (20/1)
  6.  Z Fortune (15/1)
  7.  Big Truck (50/1)
  8.  Visionaire (20/1)
  9.  Pyro (6/1)
  10.  Colonel John (4/1)
  11.  Z Humor (30/1)
  12.  Smooth Air (20/1)
  13.  Bob Black Jack (20/1)
  14.  Monba (15/1)
  15.  Adriano (30/1)
  16.  Denis of Cork (20/1)
  17.  Cowboy Cal (20/1)
  18.  Recapturetheglory (20/1)
  19.  Gayego (15/1)
  20.  Big Brown (3/1*)

First things first.  The likely favorite, Big Brown, has drawn the extreme outside post position of #20.  No horse has ever won the Derby from the 20 hole, so he’ll have to make history if he is to prevail.  I like Big Brown a lot and think he’s a worthy favorite, but will the 20 hole be too much to overcome?

All of the speed in the race (Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, even Gayego to a certain extent) appears to be to the outside.  Not only that, but they are all closely bunched together.  Bob Black Jack is breaking from the 13 hole – not too far away.  Might this lead to a bit hotter of a pace than many have been expecting? 

Looking over the odds, it appears that Gayego and Eight Belles got a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” treatment.  Gayego is at 15/1, while the filly Eight Belles is listed at 20/1.  Personally, I’ll take those odds all day long on those horses. 

Pyro is at 6/1, despite numerous impressive dirt tries, while Colonel John, who has yet to race over the surface, is at lower odds of 4/1.  Z Fortune, Monba, and Tale of Ekati join Gayego as not having received a shred of respect at 15/1. 

I’m just going to come out and say this now. I’m not a fan of Big Brown being right next to the likely speed contenders in the 20 hole.  Picking against him in the Florida Derby when he was in the 12 hole turned out to be a bad play by me a month ago.  I know I’m possibly guilty of making the same mistake, but I’m not thinking that I’ll accept the favorite at such a short price (although to be honest, 3/1 really isn’t that bad for a colt with the talent of Big Brown) breaking from such an extreme outside position in the Derby.   There looks to be value elsewhere.

I like the middle-of-the field post positions for Visionaire (8), Pyro (9), and Colonel John (10) especially.  I think these horses got really good draws that can set them up for nice runs on Saturday.  I’m not going to back any of them for the win purely based on post position though and am only noting that this will factor into the equation at some level.  The middle of the pack just looks like the sweet spot, doesn’t it?

We’ve got a bevy of seasoned and well established readers that visit here often, and I’d like to hear your opinions on the post positions and odds. Who do you guys see as having a beneficial post?  What do you make of Big Brown and the speed breaking from the outside?  Does anyone’s odds make you giddy at the prospect of a big payout? 


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Categories : Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, Z Fortune, Z Humor

Monday Derby Update

28 04 2008

Well folks, it’s finally here.  Kentucky Derby week has arrived!  It seems like centuries have past since last year’s Derby and the moment we’ve all been waiting for – the so called “greatest 2 minutes in sports” – is fast upon us.

I’ll be chiming in with updates, thoughts, and random musings whenever possible this week as the suspense continues to build (hopefully to a fever pitch) in anticipation of the run for the roses.  There’s a lot happening on the Derby front as the horses arrive at Churchill and begin their final preparations for the biggest race of their lives.

Post positions are scheduled to be drawn on the afternoon of Wednesday (April 30th).  We’ll take a look at the post position draw on Wednesday night and see how it impacts the likely contenders.  For now, here are some of the headlines for Monday:

  • Proud Spell is being pointed to the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Kentucky Derby.  After much deliberation, Larry Jones is going to enter his prized filly for a run against the girls rather than a battle of the sexes with the boys.
  • Eight Belles, however, looks like she may still wind up facing the boys in the Derby.  Jones mentioned that he likes her chances considering how the top colts all appear vulnerable.  He also thinks she can “beat up” the boys due to her size and abilities she’s shown in his barn all year.  She’s being entered in both the Oaks and the Derby, and the post position draw for the Derby on Wednesday will likely decide where she goes.  Ideally, Jones would love to have a chance to sweep both the Oaks and the Derby.  We’ll see how this plays out.  She’s a major player in my opinion if she runs in the Derby on Saturday.
  • Colonel John is starting to show signs that he likes the dirt at Churchill.   Since arriving at Churchill, the son of Tiznow and likely 2nd betting choice in the Derby has taken some time to find his footing.  His first couple of gallops around the track had folks suggesting he looked a bit timid or unsure of himself.  On Sunday the Colonel put those notions to rest with a very impressive 5 furlong workout in 57.45, galloping out to 6 furlongs in 1:11.20.  If Sunday’s workout is any indication, it looks like the Colonel is ready to bring a big effort this weekend.
  • Smooth Air is back on track after a brief temperature scare late last week.  Trainer Bernie Stutts has gotten the colts temperature back down to normal and the colt is both eating well and returning to the track as of Sunday after missing his Friday and Saturday workouts.
  • Adriano worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.80, galloping out to 6 furlongs in 1:14.40 for trainer Graham Motion.  Edgar Prado will be aboard on Saturday for the Derby.  The colt still faces questions about how well he’ll race over the dirt after being more of a turf/synthetic specialist thus far in his career.
  • Ramon Dominguez will take the reins on Monba for trainer Todd Pletcher in Saturday’s Derby.  Dominguez gets the call due to Prado’s defection to Adriano.  Ironically, Dominguez rode Adriano 4 times in the past, but Adriano’s connections chose Prado for the Derby.  Rene Douglass, who has ridden Monba several times, will likely take the mount on Z Humor instead.
  • Court Vision continues to train well for Bill Mott.  The colt went 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 and galloped out to 6 furlongs in 1:14 on Sunday.  After winning two Stakes as a 2-year-old, Court Vision has yet to turn in a signature performance as a 3 year-old.  He has a pair of 3rd place finishes in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial thus far on his resume for 2008. Garrett Gomez will be riding Court Vision in Saturday’s Derby.

That’s all for now.  Stay tuned as I’ll share whatever information I can with you throughout the week.   I’m even toying with sharing my wife’s amazing homemade barbecue sauce recipe – as (weather permitting) it would be a sin not to grill out this Saturday while playing the Churchill under-card. 


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Categories : Adriano, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Proud Spell, Z Humor

The handicapper’s pitfall – picking a Derby horse

23 04 2008

Every year we go through this ritual.  Twenty or so of the finest 3 year olds in the nation gather for the prestigious running of the Kentucky Derby, and all of us handicappers rush out to make our selections and identify “our horse” that we will back and support for the race.

When we pick right, we look like geniuses.  When wrong, we look like buffoons.  More often then not, we do pick wrong.  It’s only logical that with a 1 in 20 shot in such fields that you’re bound to wind up on more wrong picks than right.  Those few occasions  where you do pick the right horse publicly become moments in time that are impossible to forget and fill our hearts with a sense of satisfaction and pride.

I’m a guy that lives and dies a bit too much on pride.  I’ve got many friends that will ask me casually about horse racing as the Derby approaches, and nearly all want to know “who’s going to win?”  Trying to make them understand that the best you can do is reduce the field to likely contenders and then pick from there seems to meet with looks of disbelief.  Attempts to rationalize the difficulty involved reach some, but not all. 

As an avid football fan, I challenge folks that most fans aren’t able to correctly predict the Super Bowl winner – even when it’s reduced down to just two teams.  I mean c’mon – you’ve got a 50/50 shot there and most experts can’t even pick that right.  What’s a lowly horseplayer to do when they’re down to a 1 in 20 shot? Case in point would be this past Super Bowl.  While much of the “smart” betting money was indeed on the Giants (due to their ability to “cover the spread” as opposed to the Patriots seeming inability to do so down the stretch), you’d be hard pressed to find folks that could seriously articulate to you “how” the Giants might be able to pull it off.  On paper it seemed a slam dunk.

Imagine then, if you will, how difficult it is to select a single winner from a field of 20 top notched contenders.  Do you go with the best horse overall?  Do you attempt to predict the pace setup of the race and see who “should” benefit the most?  Is your conscience and reasoning affected by a “what have you done for me lately” syndrome, whereby only recent winners register in your mind, and the heroics of February and March seem too distant to recall?  Complicating matters further is that many passionate fans have already started to identify with one horse or another.  This is fantastic from a fan standpoint, as nothing brings more joy than being able to cheer your heart out for a particular horse (much like my fetish/infatuation/obsession/however you choose to classify it with Curlin), but betting with your heart can be a recipe for disaster, as all too many horseplayers know all too well.

So what am I rambling about this for now?  Well, it’s that time of year and I’m being asked by many people who “my horse” is.  The sad truth is that I don’t really have a single horse.  I’m actually stuck between 4 horses that I’m convinced the winner will come from, barring some horrible post position scenario.

The 4 I’m stuck on would be Big Brown, Gayego, Pyro, and Colonel John.  These just seem to be the best 4 in my opinion, and I must confess that I’d be shocked if the winner was someone else.  That being said, you can’t go out and publicly predict 4 winners of a single race – and therein lies the trap.  How, once reduced to 4, can you attempt to separate further without inviting disaster?Tread carefully, ye of little resolve.  For the path to horseplayer glory is littered with the carcasses of those who have tried in vein before you.  Personally I can draw little confidence from my own track record.  I bet against Street Sense last year.  I was a Bandini fan a few years back.  It gets even more embarrassing (trust me) the further back you go.

The answer for the moment is that you simply can’t pick a horse yet.  It’s still too early.  The field hasn’t been finalized.  We’ve got several workouts pending, and of course there’s the dreaded post position draw.  I’m still of the opinion that drawing the 2 hole last year destroyed any chance my beloved Curlin had of winning.  I love how the announcers on ESPN will still reference his 3rd place finish in a field of 20 and say confidently that it “proves” that a green horse is a risk in the Derby.  Fiddlesticks, I say.   Sure experience matters, but the game seems to be changing and they don’t run these colts as often as they used to.  I just don’t think you can toss a talent like Curlin last year, or Big Brown this year on grounds of inexperience alone.  As I say that, realize that in watching Curlin’s Preakness run last year, I do think he still looked “green” at times.  I remember thinking then “if that horse ever puts it all together – watch out!!”

What this means to me is that Big Brown has to be considered a serious favorite here.  His win in the Florida Derby looks to me like it would’ve left everyone else running for place and show, no matter who else had been in the field.  Of course, we won’t be betting on the Florida Derby come May 3, so it’s still possible that a pace duel or the aforementioned post position draw could spell doom for the highly touted colt.  I just think he is “the best” of the field and deserves to be the favorite.

Looking at the other contenders on my short list, I’m a guy that is probably a bit biased in favor of the California horses.  No doubt this is due to the fact that I wager so frequently on Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, and Del Mar, and as such have a much stronger feeling of familiarity with the west coast colts.  All year long I’ve had to defend my rankings of Colonel John, Gayego, even El Gato Malo at times (who yes, I admit, I was too high on).  Maybe I’m letting this familiarity cloud my judgement, but I’ve been impressed with Colonel John and Gayego each time they’ve stepped on the track.  I just can’t discount them.   Gayego is always involved in the outcome, and Colonel John has so much fight and determination in his heart that It’s almost impossible not to cheer for him.  I’ve even confessed in earlier comments that I’ve been swayed a bit recently by a dream I had following a flight to Los Angeles last week, in which I saw Gayego surge to the front and take the race.  Me? Superstitious? Say it ain’t so, Kev…..say it ain’t so!  :)

Pyro is another I just don’t think we can toss.  He had a bit of a strange workout this week with ominous signs for those that look for such things.  It was shrouded in fog and trainer Steve Asmussen was unable to judge just how fast he had actually worked. All this will likely add to the mystery of the colt that not long ago was thought to be the consensus favorite heading into Derby weekend.  Has he really fallen that far?  I for one am not even considering his Blue Grass effort, which was dismal.   There’s a laundry list of horses that for whatever reason didn’t fire at Keeneland this year – including Pyro, Proud Spell, Country Star, and Panty Raid (coincidentally, and invoking my juvenile sense of humor – is that not one of the best names for a horse you’ve ever heard?).  My heart tells me that we’ve got to chalk it up to the surface.  Am I concerned?  Of course I am, but I think we must also remember that his runs in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star were only outdone (and even that is a matter of opinion) by Big Brown in the Florida Derby.  Might we really get a colt with such credentials as the third of fourth betting option in the Derby?  It’s possible.  Maybe not likely, but possible, and obviously such value would be very attractive to players looking to make a splash.

So where does this leave us?  Well, for the moment, if you’re going to make me commit to a single horse, I suppose it will be Big Brown.  I know, I can already hear it.  I love chalk.  What can I say?  I was simply blown away in the Florida Derby and remember telling myself “don’t be a fool and bet against this guy come Derby day!”  That being said, my heart pick would Gayego, and my gut is telling me not to count out the Colonel or Pyro.

So many choices, so little time.  With less than two weeks to go in the Derby, I’m curious who many of you are backing.  One horse per person – let’s hear your Derby picks now, with the caveat that you may reserve the right to change them once the field and post positions are set.   So who ya takin?


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Categories : Big Brown, Colonel John, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pyro

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