The Fifth Column – Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

28 03 2010

It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness.  The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.

In winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior.  Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes.  Over on Twitter, Valerie from Foolish Pleasure gave out Mission Impazible as the other Pletcher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Congrats to all of you on your fine selections.  As for me, my picks were decidedly le stinky: Ron the Greek, Conveyance, and Northern Giant.

Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.

  • #1 Odysseus

In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise.  Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible.  The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly.  One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10.  My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse.  If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby.  He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.  Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?

  • #4 Awesome Act

Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus.  Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).

  • #5 Ice Box

Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach.  Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list.  Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory.  The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me.  It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire.  Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes.  He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46.  In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit.  He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern.  Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order.  Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.

  • #9 Interactif

To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May.  Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface.  Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list.  Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby.  He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix.  Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):

  • Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
  • Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
  • Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
  • Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
  • Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.

Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby.  Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Intearactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Episode IV: A New Hope

22 03 2010

With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things.  The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor.  We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings.  The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest.  Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be.  There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.

For now, doing our best Steve Haskin impression, here’s where we stand on the matter:

  • #1 Odysseus

No surprises here.  The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks.  Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point).  From the moment we first noticed him,  the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for.  He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing.  I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower.  This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin.  Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The  horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason.  The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  I learned my lesson.  Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned.  He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch.  He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave).  If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.

How awesome is Awesome Act?  Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:

As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.

  • #5 Ice Box

Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.  He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting.  Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

  • #7 Conveyance

Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect.  Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner.  Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend.  You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done.  We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.

  • #9 Interactif

While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May?  Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit.  I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

Honorable Mention:

The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):

  • Connemara
  • Schoolyard Dreams
  • Pleasant Prince
  • Dublin
  • Super Saver
  • Rule
  • Drosselmeyer
  • Jackson Bend
  • Tempted to Tapit
  • Caracortado

Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby.  Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race.  Until then, may the horse be with you.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy


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