Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses.  In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches.  Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.  We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed.  With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided  jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do.  He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a  furlong or so too soon.  It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front.  After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early.  He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go. 

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish.  Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade.  For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire.  You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge. 

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated.  Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff. 

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression.  I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative.  Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1.  It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra. 

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history.   Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions.  Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track.  It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year.  The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner.  Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy.  He’s probably earned  himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover.  Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now?  We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge).  We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill.  We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness.  And now we’ve  had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape.  Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered?  Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint.  If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward. 

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory?  It’s still too early to say for sure.  Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess.  Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer.  Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years. 

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If  the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well.  The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors  to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall. 

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride.  It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold. 

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar. 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

  • #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
  • #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
  • #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
  • #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
  • #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
  • #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
  • #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
  • #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

 

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
  • #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
  • #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont Day; Undercard Selections

4 06 2009

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now. 

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store.  As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.   

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard.  It is jam packed with interesting races.  What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice.  My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade.  This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved.  I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so. 

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime.  It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks.  Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing.  You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime.  It’s still the best show in town. 

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing?  Because…we’re horseplayers.  And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen.   Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got.   C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time!  Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

 

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending  with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post.  It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post. 

Race 6:  The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
  • #2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
  • #3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
  • #4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
  • #5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

  • #1 Benny the Bull (5/2)
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)
  • #5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull.  Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch.  He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite.  Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike.  The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July.  If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll.  His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.  

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win.  Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle.  #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics.  You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe. 

 

Race 7:  The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

  • #1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
  • #2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
  • #3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
  • #5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
  • #6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
  • #8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (6/5*)
  • #6 Modern Look (8/1)
  • #7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together.  The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall.  She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance.  Clearly she’s the horse to beat.  The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?  

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look.  She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you.  However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve.  Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished  4th to last May at Longchamp (France):  Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven.  Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite. 

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April.  This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game.  One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess.  I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

 

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

  • #1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
  • #1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
  • #2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  • #3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
  • #4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
  • #6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
  • #7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
  • #8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

  • #2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)
  • #1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)
  • #8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently.  Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil.  You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January.  Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures.  He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way.  He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale). 

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well.  The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts.   Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead.  I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.  

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings.  Remember this guy?  At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles.  After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009.  Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance.  Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade.  I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here.  The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer.  If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play. 

 

Race 9:  The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

  • #1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
  • #3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
  • #5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
  • #7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

  • #8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)
  • #4 Funny Moon (8/1)
  • #7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie.  If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her.  Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions.  We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson.  The rest is history.  With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.  

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset.  Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field.  Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories.  If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.  

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath.  It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking.  On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement.  Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners.  Same goes for #9 Four Gifts.  This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail. 

 

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

  • #1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
  • #1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
  • #2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
  • #3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
  • #4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
  • #5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
  • #6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
  • #7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
  • #8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
  • #9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
  • #10  Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
  • #11  Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
  • #12  Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
  • #2B  Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

  • #6 Wesley (12/1)
  • #12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)
  • #1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day.  The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper.  Just look at this field!   I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8  Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner.  You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday.  I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries.  Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf.  Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on. 

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset.  #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns.  His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide.  I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3.  This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage. 

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby

2 05 2009

Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips.  Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html

Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness.  Wow.  Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning.  Unbelievable.  And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection.  I must be the absolute kiss of death.  My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had  a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby. 

I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby.  That makes 3 straight top choices for  me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week).  That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week!   I’m almost scared to name a new choice.

Since I must though, I shall. 

Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion.  I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up.  There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  Go baby, go!  :)

So what else do we do?  Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of  the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics.  I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well.  I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer. 

Looking  on the positive side of things.  Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned,  and Square Eddie, just to name a few.  And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks.  That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.

But seriously…can this be “it?”  Can we not have any more setbacks? 

The picks of many are in chaos.  Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown

2009 Kentucky Derby Selections

1 05 2009

Im not sure if anything we see on Saturday could possibly top what we saw on Friday, with Rachel Alexandra’s dominating performance in the Kentucky Oaks, but It’s time to pick a winner for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.  By 6:30 tomorrow night, the world will have it’s newly crowned Derby champion.  A field of 20 has gathered for the time honored run for the roses, and the greatest 2 minute spectacle in all of sports.  Who will enter racing history as the next champion?

The field for the 135th Kentucky Derby (Grade 1):

  • #1  West Side Bernie (S. Elliott/ K. Breen) 30/1
  • #2 Musket Man (E. Coa/ D. Ryan) 20/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (J. Velaquez Jr./ E.  Harty) 30/1
  • #4 Advice (R. Douglas/ T. Pletcher) 30/1
  • #5 Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 15/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ J. Jones) 5/1
  • #7 Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 20/1
  • #8 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley) 50/1
  • #9  Join in the Dance (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 50/1
  • #10  Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 30/1
  • #11  Chocolate Candy (M. Smith/ J. Hollendorfer) 20/1
  • #12  General Quarters (J. Leparoux/ T. McCarthy) 20/1
  • #13  I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/ J. Mullins) 3/1*
  • #14  Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/ K. Breen) 50/1
  • #15  Dunkirk (E. Prado/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #16  Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/ B. Baffert) 4/1
  • #17  Summer Bird (C. Rosier/T. Ice) 50/1
  • #18  Nowhere to Hide (S. Bridgmohan/ N. Zito) 50/1
  • #19  Desert Party (R. Dominguez/ S. bin Suroor) 15/1
  • #20  Flying Private (R. Albarado Jr./ D. W. Lukas) 50/1

Free Brisnet Past Performances

All of the recent buzz seems to be surrounding Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, leaving the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, as something of a forgotten man.   I haven’t forgotten him.  His performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4 is simply too impressive to overlook.  With the exception of possibly Quality Road’s performance in the Florida Derby, that has to rank as the most impressive prep race we saw from a 3-year-old colt this season.  Further, I feel he’s positioned perfectly in the 13 hole to secure a good trip…although it’s not like he needs a perfect trip, as evidenced by that performance in the Wood.  It’s time to make it official, I’m anointing I Want Revenge as the pick.   Here’s hoping the recent whirlwind of excitement surrounding some of his main competitors gives me a better price than his current 3/1 listing.

If our “10 burning questions” poll  from the beginning of Derby week is any indication,  the Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire will take quite a bit of play at the windows following his dynamic performance in the Louisiana Derby (Note: we had 110 responses to the “who will win the 2009 Kentucky Derby?” question, with Friesan Fire receiving 30 votes.  I Want Revenge trailed with 22 votes,  Pioneer of the Nile (15), and Dunkirk (13)  The long layoff since then is the obvious concern folks will have to deal with.  He’s trained exceptionally well leading up to this, enough so that I’m making him my second choice overall.  It would be fantastic to see Larry Jones go out on top with a Derby winner in his final try, and I think Friesan Fire will give him a chance to write that storybook ending.  

As for Pioneer of the Nile, I think he could be any kind of horse.  I know he’ll be involved, and he’ll likely be right there at the finish.  Breaking from the outside he should be able to move tactically to save as much ground as he can entering the first turn, and then when Gomez asks him for his run I’m expecting him to respond in a big way.   I’m not making him the official pick, and I’ve recently stated publicly (on Facebook and Twitter) that I’m “tossing him”, but I’ll certainly cover his number in the Pick 4/Pick 6 plays.  I guess that means I haven’t fully tossed him.  Oh well.  Nobody’s perfect.

Dunkirk is a runner I could go either way with.  Back in February he probably would’ve been my top pick hands down, and while I still like him, I have these other runners rated just a tad higher.   Ultimately I’m left thinking that if Curlin couldn’t do what he’s attempting, then it’s probably going to be a bit much for Dunkirk as well.   He’s another number that you leave off the exotic wagers at your own peril, but I simply didn’t have enough to warrant making him a top choice.  I love the way he runs, but I’d prefer a bit more muscle in his chest area and overall in his body before predicting brilliance on the Triple Crown stage.   That being said, a repeat of his effort in the Florida Derby definitely has him right there at the wire. 

As for the rest of the field, I think Papa Clem can make some noise from the 7 hole, and I’m not ready to count out the Dubai invaders in Regal Ransom (30/1), and Desert Party (15/1).   Likewise, Hold Me Back has been rumored to have made a strong impression on everyone watching the workouts at Churchill this week, and as such he deserves consideration to hit the board as well. 

The last horse I’ll consider using to round out my plays is Chocolate Candy.  There’s just something about this runner that intrigues me.  I would be more intrigued had he got to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, and I’m a bit more concerned with his ability to handle the synthetic to dirt transition than I am with Pioneer of the Nile, but so far that move has been golden for I Want Revenge and Papa Clem. 

$1 Kentucky Derby Trifecta:  

 13  / 6, 7, 15, 16 /  5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16, 19  = $28

*****************************************************

As for the undercard races, I like Kodiak Kowboy in the G2 Churchill Downs (race 6).   In the G3 Eight Belles (race 7)  I’ll play the heart pick and go with Larry Jones’ Just Jenda.  Always a sucker for the Lemon Drops, I’ll play Lemon Chiffon in the G2 Churchill Distaff (race 8), although Visit and Ballymore Lady also look intriguing.  In the Humana Distaff I’ll spread a bit and cover Informed Decision, Game Face, the speedy Secret Gypsy, and longshot Roayale Michelle.  Finally in the in the G1 Turf Classic (race 10)  I like Einstein, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal.

The $.50 Pick 4 ticket I’m considering playing would look like this:

1,2,7  /  3,5,7,9  / 4,6,8  / 6, 13, 15, 16  = $72

A bit larger plays than I’m usually accustomed to, but it’s Derby day, and you only live once.  Might as well take a shot if you ask me.

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping all horses and riders return safely.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Court Vision, Dunkirk, Einstein, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Derby post positions set

29 04 2009

By now virtually everyone has seen the post position draw for the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, or at least dug a bit to find out where their favorite horses are lined up.  Here we’ll take a quick run through the field and see if we can’t glean any information about the way the chips have fallen thus far.  Like many of you, I’m still going back and forth in my mind about how exactly this race will setup and who my final pick will be. 

We’ll start with the inside runners:

  • #1 West Side Bernie (30/1)
  • #2 Musket Man (20/1)
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (30/1)
  • #4 Advice (30/1)
  • #5 Hold Me Back (15/1)

A grouping of veritable longshots highlight the inside quarter of the field for the Derby.   The two horses I think had the worst of luck in the post draw were West Side Bernie and Musket Man.  Each will probably have to go a bit quicker than they’d like to now by virtue of being stuck along the rail in a 20 horse field.  Remember that the 2 hole was doom for as talented a colt as Curlin back in ’07.   It’ll take a bit of racing luck for these guys to be able to maneuver through the field from these spots.  Winstar Farms has the trio rounding out the inside runners with longshots Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, and Hold Me Back.  If nothing else, they ought to get ground saving trips, which is probably what these guys needed anyway. 

Moving onto the inside-middle quarter of the field:

  • #6 Friesan Fire (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem (20/1)
  • #8 Mine That Bird (50/1)
  • #9 Join in the Dance (50/1)
  • #10 Regal Ransom (30/1)

Friesan Fire headlines this gorup of colts and will no doubt look to break well, and then rate off of the early speed, which could come from either side of him.  It’s worth remembering that Eight Belles, the last and perhaps most famous Derby runner for trainer Larry Jones, broke from the 5 hole in the 2008 Derby and ran well to finish 2nd to Big Brown before collapsing after crossing the finish line.  Given that Friesan Fire blewout a strong workout earlier in the week, he’d appear to be primed and ready for a big performance, and I see no need to be concerned by the post draw.  Papa Clem also drew interestingly in the 7 hole.  My 5-year-old always picks the #7 horse (his favorite color being orange), so no doubt he’ll wind up on some of our tickets.  Longshot Join in the Dance won the lottery for the post draw and selected first, opting for the 9 hole, which just happens to be the jersey number worn by one of his owners, Rashard Lewis of the NBA’s Orlando Magic.   Regal Ransom deserves some mention from me here as well as indications are that he looks very good coming off of his UAE Derby victory in Dubai back in March.  Earlier I had anticipated him to be part of the expected pace, and perhaps even on the lead early on, but from this post position I’d expect him to rate off the leaders and do more of a stalking style and look to make a middle move somewhere around the time the field enters the final turn.  He’s a longshot at 30/1 that I think deserves to be closely scrutinized in the post parade as he may have more of a chance than his odds would suggest.

Now on to the outer-middle quarter of the field:

  • #11 Chocolate Candy (20/1)
  • #12 General Quarters (20/1)
  • #13 I Want Revenge (3/1*)
  • #14 Atomic Rain (50/1)
  • #15 Dunkirk (4/1)

This is probably the group of runners that will warrant the most attention from handicappers by virtue of containing the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, and two of the more popular horses amongst fans in Dunkirk and General Quarters.  Toss in Chocolate Candy, who gets whispered about in certain circles, and you can see how interesting this group becomes.   First things first, I think I Want Revenge got a great draw from the 13 hole.   He’ll probably have some speed on both sides of him (by virtue of Pioneer of the Nile being drawn in the outside quarter of the field), but should be able to get a decent trip from here.  That might be all he needs.   Then there’s Dunkirk.   What you can’t tell from just looking at this group is that immediately to his outside is Pioneer of the Nile.  It’ll be interesting to see how these two react to each other out of the gate as Pioneer of the Nile has a reputation for being a bit wild early on, and obviously Dunkirk is extremely lightly raced.  If all goes well at the break, this isn’t a bad spot for him at all.  If something does go wrong though, well, then the whole picture changes.  But that could really be said about any runner in this field.  I’m only mentioning it because I’m a bit worried the two of them might play bumper cars for the first few steps.  General Quarters and Chocolate Candy look well placed here as well.  I would think this is probably just about where their connections would want them placed for this race.  As for Atomic Rain,  well…I’m not really feeling it at the moment.  I guess it’s a good draw for him.  Honestly I’m not really focusing that much on him.

And finally, the outside quarter of the field:

  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile (4/1)
  • #17 Summer Bird (50/1)
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide (50/1)
  • #19 Desert Party (15/1)
  • #20 Flying  Private (50/1)

It’s an interesting mix of possible legitimate win contenders and absolute longshot bombs on the outside.  We’ve already mentioned Pioneer of the Nile when discussing Dunkirk in the previous grouping, so I’ll spare you the rehash.  He would appear to be the speed of the outside horses and just might find himself on the lead unless one of the inside runners decides to (or is forced to) gun it in the early going.  He’ll probably go quick enough to save as much ground as he can going into the 1st turn.  Summer Bird looked absolutely fantastic in the post parade last out and I’m anxious to see how he stacks up on Derby day in the paddock.  You get the feeling he’s in a bit over his head, but he could be worth a late show bet if he passes the eye test.  I’m not really seeing it from Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private.  Honestly these 50/1 shots make me wish we still had Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse,  Quality Road, and Square Eddie here instead.  What a race that would be!  One horse who does intrigue me very much is Desert Party, and at 15/1 he won’t have to make much of an impression to warrant serious consideration.  I wouldn’t count him out of this fight.  Not at 15/1. 

So there you have it.  By no means does this constitute my final analysis….just some initial thoughts having looked over the post position draw.  We’ll be back tomorrow night with selections and analysis of the much anticipated Oaks Day card coming up on Friday, and then of course we’ll be jumping in full force for the run for the roses on Saturday.  

My question to all is how you see the post draw shaping up?   Any ideas on the pace scenario?  Like I mentioned before, I’m now off the idea that Regal Ransom will be a pacesetter.  Does that mean it could be Papa Clem setting the early pace, or one of the longer shots on the board?  Might Pioneer of the Nile have to show some speed from the outside as I suspect, or have I lost my mind with that thought?  As always, all opinions both welcomed and requested!  :)


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile

Enter Lady Hope

27 04 2009

So it’s Derby week and we’ve had some shakeups.  It’s nothing new really, but we are in dire need of some good news on the thoroughbred racing front.   Bad things tend to come in bunches, so with any luck ours is out of the way and we’re setup for a thrilling Derby to remember this Saturday.  That’s the “glass half full” side of things.  The other possibility is that, well…let’s not even get into that.  It’d be bad.  Very bad.   With that in mind, I’m pulling for the “glass half full” vision of things. 

We’ve had a trilogy of recent disappointing news involving potential favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, including injuries to The Pamplemousse  (who was the likely pace setter),  Old Fashioned, and Quality Road (another speedy type).   This latest blow was particularly hard to take, as Quality Road was likely going to be my selection if everything with his feet checked out.  The cumulative effect of these departures is a completely altered pace scenario.  What once looked like a potential battle up front as horses tried to challenge The Pamplemousse and opened things up to the possibility of a flyer down the center of the track late, to a scenario where one horse might get out and be able to set easy fractions in merry-go-round style (Regal Ransom, anyone?).  

And it’s not like we haven’t had other “issues” to deal with.  The monstrous findings of unthinkable neglect with Paragallo’s horses and the infamous infractions of Jeff Mullins with Gato Go Win earlier this spring come to mind.   In fact, with the exception of a particularly interesting (if not ever-thinning) crop of three-year-olds to behold, there hasn’t been that much to get excited over.   Curlin’s retired (you knew I had to work that in somehow),  and we’ve yet to see the seasonal debut of Zenyatta. 

But this is the Derby, and with such a huge field, nothing is ever certain (with all due respect to Big Brown and every other worthy favorite that has prevailed over the years). Not only that, but we’re due for some good luck.  We’re all handicappers and at least mild gamblers.  We know to trust probabilities and odds.   Things have got to get better, don’t they?

Enter lady hope.

News now comes that Zenyatta, little miss “slow cheetah” herself,  is making her seasonal debut this Friday on Oaks Day!  She’s running in the Louisville Distaff on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks undercard!!!   Are you kidding me?   That means we get to see the two best fillies in the nation on Friday.   Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra!   Whoa there…are the ladies upstaging the biggest race in the country?   Not exactly….we could only say that if they were facing each other, but at this point Zenyatta would have such an advantage that it wouldn’t likely be that interesting.   So this is the best we could possibly hope for.   The front runner for Horse of the Year (barring a spectacular performance through the spring and summer from one of the 3-year-old colts), and the front runner for 3-year-old filly of the year.   Hell, I think Rachel Alexandra would be a logical contender in the Derby if she were to run there instead of the Oaks.

Want more good karma?   Today I received a kind letter of thanks from President Michael Blowen over at Old Friends for a meager donation.  It was quite a surprise considering the amount I donated was not a heck of a lot of money.  It just goes to show what great folks they are.   They appreciate every bit of help they get (hint, hint – if you manage to take home a score on Derby or Oaks day, make yourself a note to give a small portion back to a horse rescue group like Old Friends…it’s the right thing to do).   Old Friends are expecting to add Lava Man, Polish Navy, and Glitterman to the list of distinguished residents in the near future.   To be totally transparent, the donation is a mandatory requirement of being part of the TBA.  It’s one of the little things we try to do to be responsible members of the thoroughbred racing community. 

Anyhow…the point I’m making is that it was one of those “yep, this is why I’m proud to be a racing fan” moments.   Just like being able to see both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra strut their stuff on “Oaks Day” will be an experience I’m eager with anticipation to see.   This is what we live for!   And then, of course, to top things off we get the Derby.   The best 2 minutes in all of sports.   Might this be a good omen for things to come on Saturday?   One can surely hope, can’t they? 

On the Derby front, things are shaping up rather interestingly.   Thanks to a plug from Ray Paulick, we were able to get some very interesting results from a good sampling of fans in the “10 Burning Questions” post.   Make sure you head on over and participate if you haven’t done so yet.   Somewhat surprisingly, Friesan Fire is pulling away in the lead as the “people’s horse” for the moment.   Even more fascinating, as of this writing, almost as many voters have picked a longshot as have picked likely favorite I Want Revenge.   I can’t wait to see how this plays out on the tote board, but my hunch is that the late departure of a strong contender like Quality Road has really shaken up the opinions.   There’s bound to be some juicy opportunities out there.   There’s still the bulk of the week to go, and no doubt folks will start to settle down and the chips will fall one way or another, but for now it’s endlessly fascinating to see what folks are thinking.

My guess at an interpretation is that folks are a tad wary of I Want Revenge leaving himself too much to do in the Derby.   Having to get through the way he did in the Wood, while impressive, is a bit worrisome in the larger field he’ll face this weekend.  With Quality Road out of the picture though, I really thought he was the only runner who could get to him and reel him in late in the stretch.  

Dunkirk is getting a lukewarm reception overall.   It’s almost split right down the middle in terms of folks who think he’s a “legit win contender” and those who don’t.  Notice that phrasing.  It doesn’t mean he’s your top pick, it just means you think he’s got a shot.   Having close to 50% indicate “no” is way more than I anticipated.  For the record, I think he is a legit win threat.   He’s one you’ve got to consider and I don’t think it’s safe to toss any of the main competitors at this point. 

To give you a glimpse into my thinking (or, as my brother might say “ever see that movie “” A Beautiful Mind”"???) Here’s my biggest concern.  If I were to pick I Want Revenge, I’d potentially be going against two of my favorite plays.  One I’d be defintiely playing against and the other I’d “probably” be playing against.  The definite angle I’d be going against is playing Larry Jones when teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez on a 3-year-old.   That’s one of my strongest plays traditionally.  Especially whenever they get anything resembling “decent odds”  (which isn’t often, but could be the case here).   The second angle I could be playing against is “lone speed.”   I’ve got to look at it a bit more.   If Regal Ransom could get the lead,  might he not have a chance at the upset?   You’d think we would be cautious of such a possibility having had watched  Da’ Tara merry-go-round Big Brown and company in the 2008 Belmont, but it’s easy to forget with so much having happened since then. 

With that in mind.  Sound off.   Let’s here how you are seeing things in light of the recent shake-up.  We’ve got plenty of data….what we don’t have is a good assessment of “why?”   Ah yes, to you, oh wise readers, I turn for the “million dollar questions.”   :)


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, TBA, The Pamplemousse, Zenyatta

10 Burning Questions As Derby Week Begins

27 04 2009

With Kentucky Derby week finally upon us, I thought it best to poll the general public and get a sense for how opinions are shaping up.  We’ve got an interesting field to separate between now and Saturday, and with that many burning questions to answer.   Will we have a shot at a Triple Crown (we know at least for two weeks in between the Derby and the Preakness we will)?  Who is the consensus favorite?  How does the pace setup?   And perhaps more importantly than all of that, how do we choose between the interesting mid-tier and lower horses who appear to be of comparable  quality? 

Here’s the 10  “burning questions” I’m  most interested in hearing from all of you on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road

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