Alibi Breakfast recap

14 05 2009

“Preakness Thursday” can mean only one thing if you’re in the Baltimore area, and that’s the annual Alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course.  A tradition going back to the 1930′s, the Alibi breakfast is one of the best kept secrets of thoroughbred racing’s 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.  Owners, trainers, dignitaries, and fans gather to honor those who have made contributions to the racing industry, as well as to stir things up with some juicy talk about the upcoming Preakness.  For yours truly, it’s the one opportunity of the year to rub elbows with some of the bigger names in the sport, and attempt to learn inside information about the race that is the focal point of my entire year.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

First things first, I was not able to fulfill priority #1, which was to meet “Team Rachel.”  Jess Jackson did not appear to be in attendance, nor was trainer Steve Asmussen.  Instead, assistant trainer Scott Blasi stood in for them.  While he may not be as well known from a household name perspective, he was the unsung hero behind the success of Curlin in ’07 and ’08.  He mentioned that the filly has looked amazing since he’d been with her and that they can’t wait to run her.  In a light hearted moment (the Alibi breakfast being filled with such moments), he answered a question concerning her outside post position in the 13 hole by saying “I just hope Calvin doesn’t forget where he is on the track and try to skim the outside rail.” 

One related piece of information that fans of Curlin will enjoy hearing is that yes, Pancho, the horse that travelled the globe with the 2007/2008 Horse of the Year has made the journey to Baltimore to be with Rachel Alexandra.  That can only be interpreted as a positive sign, as Pancho is highly regarded for having a calming effect on horses under his watch.  To many, Pancho is just as beloved as Curlin, which is really saying something for a horse that has gone almost completely unnoticed to the general public.   He’s a silent hero type.  Blasi mentioned during his speech that the connections of Rachel Alexandra do worry a bit about what might spook her or cause her to stress a bit.  With Pancho by her side, those fears have to be greatly reduced.  He’s a special horse in his own right, and his presence with Rachel makes me feel extremely good about her chances of running big on this, her biggest stage.

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

 

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty.  Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted).  He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go.   Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man.  It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year.   As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel.  For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick  after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge.

Perhaps the most amazing moment of the day for us was that we stood in the breakfast buffet line with the connections of Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, including trainer Chip Woolley Jr.   In fact, at one point Amy even tapped him on the shoulder and warned him that it looked like his wallet was about to fall out of his back pocket.  I’ve got to say, Mine That Bird’s connections cast quite the appearance, with their tall Texan cowboy hats, and they were consummate gentlemen.  During the ceremony, Woolley joked that he was unaccustomed to police escorts upon arriving to town, and mentioned that “the last time the cops were behind me, I went to jail.”  He also expanded upon his comments after the Derby indicating that he felt strongly that Mine That Bird’s victory was a “win for the little guys” around the world, and that while they were sad to lose jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra, they were quite pleased to pick up the services of Hall of Famer Michael Smith.  

I must confess here that while I was not a very big Mine That Bird fan going into the Preakness, it would be something else to see these guys win.  They were arguably the most down to earth and easily approachable of those connected to the Preakness runners.  You can tell they are still beaming with pride, as Woolley signed our program with a big “KD 135″ under his name.  Yes indeed, Derby 135 shall always be theirs to savor.

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Moving on, Gary Stute gave a heartfelt speech about how he had invited his father to see Papa Clem in the Preakness, as he worried this might be his last chance to do so.  Papa Clem is named after racing legend Clement Hirsch. Stute’s father is apparently not in the greatest of health.  He joked that he “insisted” his family come to see Papa Clem run in the Preakness, but that he had done so before he knew they were up against the filly.  On a side note, when first driving past the backside of Pimlico on our way in this morning, I saw Papa Clem galloping about (from the window of our moving car, mind you), and I thought he looked fantastic.   Personally, I think Papa Clem is being totally disrespected on the morning line at 12/1 (let me condition that by saying that yes, I understand that’s not the odds maker’s actual opinion and that it’s really just his prediction of how the betting public will wind up).  If the public does send this horse out at 12/1,  I think it’s a huge mistake.  Although it’s one I’ll try to capitalize on at the betting windows.

The moment that will probably stick out the most to those in attendance were the interviews with trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas.   Baffert indicated that he thought Pioneer of the Nile would get a good trip stalking behind the early pacesetters (assuming Big Drama goes from the 1 hole and that Rachel goes as well from the outside).   He also mentioned that he tried to purchase Rachel Alexandra at one point but that he was “too cheap” and couldn’t afford the hefty price tag.   He said that as a fan he was blown away by her performance in the Oaks.  Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneer of the Nile, and he looks to be one that could be sitting on a big performance.   I mentioned this on Facebook last evening, but there can’t be any doubt that he’ll be a part of the finish.  At 5/1 he’ll probably be the second choice when they go to post.  Baffert also mentioned that he went into the post draw hoping for the 9, 10, or 11 hole, and being as that they got the  9 hole with speed on both sides, he thought they were in good spot.

Lukas was the absolute highlight of the morning.  He started by discussing his two 50-1 longshots, Luv Gov and Flying Private.  He asked Woolley and the Mine That Bird connections for some advice on how to get things done at 50/1.  Then he offered that Luv Gov was named for former Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York, and joked that he had another filly named 9th Client.  In the end he said that he didn’t have any delusions of upsetting this field with a 50/1 longshot, but that he’s been in racing long enough to know that if you have horses that you think belong in the race, you might as well run them.  

An interesting tidbit for folks who are fond of Musket Man, for owners Eric Fein & Vic Carlson.  Mr. Carlson mentioned that while he likes his horses chances, he’d “probably be betting on him to show” against this field.  He also mentioned that his girlfriend (as a side note, Mr. Carlson and I seem to have a similar taste in women…just sayin’) advised that her lucky number was 3, so they feel good about the post position.  Personally I like this horse quite a bit.  It’s kind of hard to separate him, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem because they finished so close in the Derby.   He seems like a fighter though.  Plus, I love hearing his trainer, Derek Ryan, talk prior to races.  Sadly, I did not see him in attendance as I was hoping to get to meet him as well.

As for the rest of the field, the consensus seemed to be that Big Drama would be forced to go quickly from the inside post position.  A little birdie happened to mention to me that Big Drama has looked very impressive in their opinion while working out at Pimlico.  I know, I know, he wasn’t one of the horses I was going to play either, but just remember that last year the juicy piece of information I received from the Alibi breakfast was that Macho Again looked much better in training than his odds suggested.  I’m just throwing that out there (note, that juicy tidbit about Macho Agian is in the comments section of the post I’ve hyperlinked to from last year).

It also remains impossible to root against a horse like General Quarters and his trainer Thomas McCarthy.  By the way, in an interesting fact I had not heard before, it was revealed that McCarthy actually taught former NBA great Wes Unseld in High School back in Kentucky.  Unseld of course has deep Baltimore connections having coached the Washington Wizards (technically then known as the Washington Bullets) for years.

Lastly, if you’re looking to play a local angle, than consider that M&D Stables, who are sending out longshot Tone it Down (3rd in the Federico Tesio on May 2), are a Maryland operation through and through….right down to their silks, which are fashioned in the spirit of the Maryland flag.   Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Tone it Down, the same man who rode Big Brown to victory so brilliantly last year in the Preakness.

Overall, we wound up meeting, talking to, and getting autographs from ”Chip” Woolley Jr., D. Wayne Lukas, Larry Jones, Vic Carlson, and the connections to Tone it Down.  We also ran into some of the NTRA staff that I was privileged enough to meet last fall at the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas (and to my surprise, they remembered who I was – even remembered my name!).  Along the way we also managed to consume several Black Eyed Susans, making us the proud owners of 4 of the prized collector’s item Preakness glasses.  We would’ve made out with more, but that was all we could carry.

 

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

I also want to give a HUGE shout out to our friends Tex and Cindy from over at horseracing.about.com.   Without them, Amy and I would likely have never even attempted to take in an Alibi breakfast, and what an experience we’d have missed.   One final parting shout out here to Carrie Everly, the VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club.  I don’t know that I’ve ever met a host who makes us feel more welcomed anywhere in the world.  She goes out of her way to make us feel like we belong.  Carrie, if you’re reading this, please know how much we appreciate you.  The MJC is lucky to have a person like you in their employ. 

Alright….now I just need to rest off those Black Eyed Susans and get to handicapping.  I’ll be back later tonight with a full lineup of picks for tomorrow’s races on, what else, Black Eyed Susan day!  :)





I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby

2 05 2009

Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips.  Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html

Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness.  Wow.  Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning.  Unbelievable.  And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection.  I must be the absolute kiss of death.  My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had  a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby. 

I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby.  That makes 3 straight top choices for  me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week).  That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week!   I’m almost scared to name a new choice.

Since I must though, I shall. 

Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion.  I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up.  There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  Go baby, go!  :)

So what else do we do?  Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of  the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics.  I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well.  I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer. 

Looking  on the positive side of things.  Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned,  and Square Eddie, just to name a few.  And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks.  That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.

But seriously…can this be “it?”  Can we not have any more setbacks? 

The picks of many are in chaos.  Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.





2009 Kentucky Derby Selections

1 05 2009

Im not sure if anything we see on Saturday could possibly top what we saw on Friday, with Rachel Alexandra’s dominating performance in the Kentucky Oaks, but It’s time to pick a winner for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.  By 6:30 tomorrow night, the world will have it’s newly crowned Derby champion.  A field of 20 has gathered for the time honored run for the roses, and the greatest 2 minute spectacle in all of sports.  Who will enter racing history as the next champion?

The field for the 135th Kentucky Derby (Grade 1):

  • #1  West Side Bernie (S. Elliott/ K. Breen) 30/1
  • #2 Musket Man (E. Coa/ D. Ryan) 20/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (J. Velaquez Jr./ E.  Harty) 30/1
  • #4 Advice (R. Douglas/ T. Pletcher) 30/1
  • #5 Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 15/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ J. Jones) 5/1
  • #7 Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 20/1
  • #8 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley) 50/1
  • #9  Join in the Dance (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 50/1
  • #10  Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 30/1
  • #11  Chocolate Candy (M. Smith/ J. Hollendorfer) 20/1
  • #12  General Quarters (J. Leparoux/ T. McCarthy) 20/1
  • #13  I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/ J. Mullins) 3/1*
  • #14  Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/ K. Breen) 50/1
  • #15  Dunkirk (E. Prado/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #16  Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/ B. Baffert) 4/1
  • #17  Summer Bird (C. Rosier/T. Ice) 50/1
  • #18  Nowhere to Hide (S. Bridgmohan/ N. Zito) 50/1
  • #19  Desert Party (R. Dominguez/ S. bin Suroor) 15/1
  • #20  Flying Private (R. Albarado Jr./ D. W. Lukas) 50/1

Free Brisnet Past Performances

All of the recent buzz seems to be surrounding Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, leaving the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, as something of a forgotten man.   I haven’t forgotten him.  His performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4 is simply too impressive to overlook.  With the exception of possibly Quality Road’s performance in the Florida Derby, that has to rank as the most impressive prep race we saw from a 3-year-old colt this season.  Further, I feel he’s positioned perfectly in the 13 hole to secure a good trip…although it’s not like he needs a perfect trip, as evidenced by that performance in the Wood.  It’s time to make it official, I’m anointing I Want Revenge as the pick.   Here’s hoping the recent whirlwind of excitement surrounding some of his main competitors gives me a better price than his current 3/1 listing.

If our “10 burning questions” poll  from the beginning of Derby week is any indication,  the Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire will take quite a bit of play at the windows following his dynamic performance in the Louisiana Derby (Note: we had 110 responses to the “who will win the 2009 Kentucky Derby?” question, with Friesan Fire receiving 30 votes.  I Want Revenge trailed with 22 votes,  Pioneer of the Nile (15), and Dunkirk (13)  The long layoff since then is the obvious concern folks will have to deal with.  He’s trained exceptionally well leading up to this, enough so that I’m making him my second choice overall.  It would be fantastic to see Larry Jones go out on top with a Derby winner in his final try, and I think Friesan Fire will give him a chance to write that storybook ending.  

As for Pioneer of the Nile, I think he could be any kind of horse.  I know he’ll be involved, and he’ll likely be right there at the finish.  Breaking from the outside he should be able to move tactically to save as much ground as he can entering the first turn, and then when Gomez asks him for his run I’m expecting him to respond in a big way.   I’m not making him the official pick, and I’ve recently stated publicly (on Facebook and Twitter) that I’m “tossing him”, but I’ll certainly cover his number in the Pick 4/Pick 6 plays.  I guess that means I haven’t fully tossed him.  Oh well.  Nobody’s perfect.

Dunkirk is a runner I could go either way with.  Back in February he probably would’ve been my top pick hands down, and while I still like him, I have these other runners rated just a tad higher.   Ultimately I’m left thinking that if Curlin couldn’t do what he’s attempting, then it’s probably going to be a bit much for Dunkirk as well.   He’s another number that you leave off the exotic wagers at your own peril, but I simply didn’t have enough to warrant making him a top choice.  I love the way he runs, but I’d prefer a bit more muscle in his chest area and overall in his body before predicting brilliance on the Triple Crown stage.   That being said, a repeat of his effort in the Florida Derby definitely has him right there at the wire. 

As for the rest of the field, I think Papa Clem can make some noise from the 7 hole, and I’m not ready to count out the Dubai invaders in Regal Ransom (30/1), and Desert Party (15/1).   Likewise, Hold Me Back has been rumored to have made a strong impression on everyone watching the workouts at Churchill this week, and as such he deserves consideration to hit the board as well. 

The last horse I’ll consider using to round out my plays is Chocolate Candy.  There’s just something about this runner that intrigues me.  I would be more intrigued had he got to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, and I’m a bit more concerned with his ability to handle the synthetic to dirt transition than I am with Pioneer of the Nile, but so far that move has been golden for I Want Revenge and Papa Clem. 

$1 Kentucky Derby Trifecta:  

 13  / 6, 7, 15, 16 /  5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16, 19  = $28

*****************************************************

As for the undercard races, I like Kodiak Kowboy in the G2 Churchill Downs (race 6).   In the G3 Eight Belles (race 7)  I’ll play the heart pick and go with Larry Jones’ Just Jenda.  Always a sucker for the Lemon Drops, I’ll play Lemon Chiffon in the G2 Churchill Distaff (race 8), although Visit and Ballymore Lady also look intriguing.  In the Humana Distaff I’ll spread a bit and cover Informed Decision, Game Face, the speedy Secret Gypsy, and longshot Roayale Michelle.  Finally in the in the G1 Turf Classic (race 10)  I like Einstein, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal.

The $.50 Pick 4 ticket I’m considering playing would look like this:

1,2,7  /  3,5,7,9  / 4,6,8  / 6, 13, 15, 16  = $72

A bit larger plays than I’m usually accustomed to, but it’s Derby day, and you only live once.  Might as well take a shot if you ask me.

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping all horses and riders return safely.





Derby post positions set

29 04 2009

By now virtually everyone has seen the post position draw for the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, or at least dug a bit to find out where their favorite horses are lined up.  Here we’ll take a quick run through the field and see if we can’t glean any information about the way the chips have fallen thus far.  Like many of you, I’m still going back and forth in my mind about how exactly this race will setup and who my final pick will be. 

We’ll start with the inside runners:

  • #1 West Side Bernie (30/1)
  • #2 Musket Man (20/1)
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (30/1)
  • #4 Advice (30/1)
  • #5 Hold Me Back (15/1)

A grouping of veritable longshots highlight the inside quarter of the field for the Derby.   The two horses I think had the worst of luck in the post draw were West Side Bernie and Musket Man.  Each will probably have to go a bit quicker than they’d like to now by virtue of being stuck along the rail in a 20 horse field.  Remember that the 2 hole was doom for as talented a colt as Curlin back in ’07.   It’ll take a bit of racing luck for these guys to be able to maneuver through the field from these spots.  Winstar Farms has the trio rounding out the inside runners with longshots Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, and Hold Me Back.  If nothing else, they ought to get ground saving trips, which is probably what these guys needed anyway. 

Moving onto the inside-middle quarter of the field:

  • #6 Friesan Fire (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem (20/1)
  • #8 Mine That Bird (50/1)
  • #9 Join in the Dance (50/1)
  • #10 Regal Ransom (30/1)

Friesan Fire headlines this gorup of colts and will no doubt look to break well, and then rate off of the early speed, which could come from either side of him.  It’s worth remembering that Eight Belles, the last and perhaps most famous Derby runner for trainer Larry Jones, broke from the 5 hole in the 2008 Derby and ran well to finish 2nd to Big Brown before collapsing after crossing the finish line.  Given that Friesan Fire blewout a strong workout earlier in the week, he’d appear to be primed and ready for a big performance, and I see no need to be concerned by the post draw.  Papa Clem also drew interestingly in the 7 hole.  My 5-year-old always picks the #7 horse (his favorite color being orange), so no doubt he’ll wind up on some of our tickets.  Longshot Join in the Dance won the lottery for the post draw and selected first, opting for the 9 hole, which just happens to be the jersey number worn by one of his owners, Rashard Lewis of the NBA’s Orlando Magic.   Regal Ransom deserves some mention from me here as well as indications are that he looks very good coming off of his UAE Derby victory in Dubai back in March.  Earlier I had anticipated him to be part of the expected pace, and perhaps even on the lead early on, but from this post position I’d expect him to rate off the leaders and do more of a stalking style and look to make a middle move somewhere around the time the field enters the final turn.  He’s a longshot at 30/1 that I think deserves to be closely scrutinized in the post parade as he may have more of a chance than his odds would suggest.

Now on to the outer-middle quarter of the field:

  • #11 Chocolate Candy (20/1)
  • #12 General Quarters (20/1)
  • #13 I Want Revenge (3/1*)
  • #14 Atomic Rain (50/1)
  • #15 Dunkirk (4/1)

This is probably the group of runners that will warrant the most attention from handicappers by virtue of containing the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, and two of the more popular horses amongst fans in Dunkirk and General Quarters.  Toss in Chocolate Candy, who gets whispered about in certain circles, and you can see how interesting this group becomes.   First things first, I think I Want Revenge got a great draw from the 13 hole.   He’ll probably have some speed on both sides of him (by virtue of Pioneer of the Nile being drawn in the outside quarter of the field), but should be able to get a decent trip from here.  That might be all he needs.   Then there’s Dunkirk.   What you can’t tell from just looking at this group is that immediately to his outside is Pioneer of the Nile.  It’ll be interesting to see how these two react to each other out of the gate as Pioneer of the Nile has a reputation for being a bit wild early on, and obviously Dunkirk is extremely lightly raced.  If all goes well at the break, this isn’t a bad spot for him at all.  If something does go wrong though, well, then the whole picture changes.  But that could really be said about any runner in this field.  I’m only mentioning it because I’m a bit worried the two of them might play bumper cars for the first few steps.  General Quarters and Chocolate Candy look well placed here as well.  I would think this is probably just about where their connections would want them placed for this race.  As for Atomic Rain,  well…I’m not really feeling it at the moment.  I guess it’s a good draw for him.  Honestly I’m not really focusing that much on him.

And finally, the outside quarter of the field:

  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile (4/1)
  • #17 Summer Bird (50/1)
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide (50/1)
  • #19 Desert Party (15/1)
  • #20 Flying  Private (50/1)

It’s an interesting mix of possible legitimate win contenders and absolute longshot bombs on the outside.  We’ve already mentioned Pioneer of the Nile when discussing Dunkirk in the previous grouping, so I’ll spare you the rehash.  He would appear to be the speed of the outside horses and just might find himself on the lead unless one of the inside runners decides to (or is forced to) gun it in the early going.  He’ll probably go quick enough to save as much ground as he can going into the 1st turn.  Summer Bird looked absolutely fantastic in the post parade last out and I’m anxious to see how he stacks up on Derby day in the paddock.  You get the feeling he’s in a bit over his head, but he could be worth a late show bet if he passes the eye test.  I’m not really seeing it from Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private.  Honestly these 50/1 shots make me wish we still had Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse,  Quality Road, and Square Eddie here instead.  What a race that would be!  One horse who does intrigue me very much is Desert Party, and at 15/1 he won’t have to make much of an impression to warrant serious consideration.  I wouldn’t count him out of this fight.  Not at 15/1. 

So there you have it.  By no means does this constitute my final analysis….just some initial thoughts having looked over the post position draw.  We’ll be back tomorrow night with selections and analysis of the much anticipated Oaks Day card coming up on Friday, and then of course we’ll be jumping in full force for the run for the roses on Saturday.  

My question to all is how you see the post draw shaping up?   Any ideas on the pace scenario?  Like I mentioned before, I’m now off the idea that Regal Ransom will be a pacesetter.  Does that mean it could be Papa Clem setting the early pace, or one of the longer shots on the board?  Might Pioneer of the Nile have to show some speed from the outside as I suspect, or have I lost my mind with that thought?  As always, all opinions both welcomed and requested!  :)





Enter Lady Hope

27 04 2009

So it’s Derby week and we’ve had some shakeups.  It’s nothing new really, but we are in dire need of some good news on the thoroughbred racing front.   Bad things tend to come in bunches, so with any luck ours is out of the way and we’re setup for a thrilling Derby to remember this Saturday.  That’s the “glass half full” side of things.  The other possibility is that, well…let’s not even get into that.  It’d be bad.  Very bad.   With that in mind, I’m pulling for the “glass half full” vision of things. 

We’ve had a trilogy of recent disappointing news involving potential favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, including injuries to The Pamplemousse  (who was the likely pace setter),  Old Fashioned, and Quality Road (another speedy type).   This latest blow was particularly hard to take, as Quality Road was likely going to be my selection if everything with his feet checked out.  The cumulative effect of these departures is a completely altered pace scenario.  What once looked like a potential battle up front as horses tried to challenge The Pamplemousse and opened things up to the possibility of a flyer down the center of the track late, to a scenario where one horse might get out and be able to set easy fractions in merry-go-round style (Regal Ransom, anyone?).  

And it’s not like we haven’t had other “issues” to deal with.  The monstrous findings of unthinkable neglect with Paragallo’s horses and the infamous infractions of Jeff Mullins with Gato Go Win earlier this spring come to mind.   In fact, with the exception of a particularly interesting (if not ever-thinning) crop of three-year-olds to behold, there hasn’t been that much to get excited over.   Curlin’s retired (you knew I had to work that in somehow),  and we’ve yet to see the seasonal debut of Zenyatta. 

But this is the Derby, and with such a huge field, nothing is ever certain (with all due respect to Big Brown and every other worthy favorite that has prevailed over the years). Not only that, but we’re due for some good luck.  We’re all handicappers and at least mild gamblers.  We know to trust probabilities and odds.   Things have got to get better, don’t they?

Enter lady hope.

News now comes that Zenyatta, little miss “slow cheetah” herself,  is making her seasonal debut this Friday on Oaks Day!  She’s running in the Louisville Distaff on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks undercard!!!   Are you kidding me?   That means we get to see the two best fillies in the nation on Friday.   Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra!   Whoa there…are the ladies upstaging the biggest race in the country?   Not exactly….we could only say that if they were facing each other, but at this point Zenyatta would have such an advantage that it wouldn’t likely be that interesting.   So this is the best we could possibly hope for.   The front runner for Horse of the Year (barring a spectacular performance through the spring and summer from one of the 3-year-old colts), and the front runner for 3-year-old filly of the year.   Hell, I think Rachel Alexandra would be a logical contender in the Derby if she were to run there instead of the Oaks.

Want more good karma?   Today I received a kind letter of thanks from President Michael Blowen over at Old Friends for a meager donation.  It was quite a surprise considering the amount I donated was not a heck of a lot of money.  It just goes to show what great folks they are.   They appreciate every bit of help they get (hint, hint – if you manage to take home a score on Derby or Oaks day, make yourself a note to give a small portion back to a horse rescue group like Old Friends…it’s the right thing to do).   Old Friends are expecting to add Lava Man, Polish Navy, and Glitterman to the list of distinguished residents in the near future.   To be totally transparent, the donation is a mandatory requirement of being part of the TBA.  It’s one of the little things we try to do to be responsible members of the thoroughbred racing community. 

Anyhow…the point I’m making is that it was one of those “yep, this is why I’m proud to be a racing fan” moments.   Just like being able to see both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra strut their stuff on “Oaks Day” will be an experience I’m eager with anticipation to see.   This is what we live for!   And then, of course, to top things off we get the Derby.   The best 2 minutes in all of sports.   Might this be a good omen for things to come on Saturday?   One can surely hope, can’t they? 

On the Derby front, things are shaping up rather interestingly.   Thanks to a plug from Ray Paulick, we were able to get some very interesting results from a good sampling of fans in the “10 Burning Questions” post.   Make sure you head on over and participate if you haven’t done so yet.   Somewhat surprisingly, Friesan Fire is pulling away in the lead as the “people’s horse” for the moment.   Even more fascinating, as of this writing, almost as many voters have picked a longshot as have picked likely favorite I Want Revenge.   I can’t wait to see how this plays out on the tote board, but my hunch is that the late departure of a strong contender like Quality Road has really shaken up the opinions.   There’s bound to be some juicy opportunities out there.   There’s still the bulk of the week to go, and no doubt folks will start to settle down and the chips will fall one way or another, but for now it’s endlessly fascinating to see what folks are thinking.

My guess at an interpretation is that folks are a tad wary of I Want Revenge leaving himself too much to do in the Derby.   Having to get through the way he did in the Wood, while impressive, is a bit worrisome in the larger field he’ll face this weekend.  With Quality Road out of the picture though, I really thought he was the only runner who could get to him and reel him in late in the stretch.  

Dunkirk is getting a lukewarm reception overall.   It’s almost split right down the middle in terms of folks who think he’s a “legit win contender” and those who don’t.  Notice that phrasing.  It doesn’t mean he’s your top pick, it just means you think he’s got a shot.   Having close to 50% indicate “no” is way more than I anticipated.  For the record, I think he is a legit win threat.   He’s one you’ve got to consider and I don’t think it’s safe to toss any of the main competitors at this point. 

To give you a glimpse into my thinking (or, as my brother might say “ever see that movie “” A Beautiful Mind”"???) Here’s my biggest concern.  If I were to pick I Want Revenge, I’d potentially be going against two of my favorite plays.  One I’d be defintiely playing against and the other I’d “probably” be playing against.  The definite angle I’d be going against is playing Larry Jones when teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez on a 3-year-old.   That’s one of my strongest plays traditionally.  Especially whenever they get anything resembling “decent odds”  (which isn’t often, but could be the case here).   The second angle I could be playing against is “lone speed.”   I’ve got to look at it a bit more.   If Regal Ransom could get the lead,  might he not have a chance at the upset?   You’d think we would be cautious of such a possibility having had watched  Da’ Tara merry-go-round Big Brown and company in the 2008 Belmont, but it’s easy to forget with so much having happened since then. 

With that in mind.  Sound off.   Let’s here how you are seeing things in light of the recent shake-up.  We’ve got plenty of data….what we don’t have is a good assessment of “why?”   Ah yes, to you, oh wise readers, I turn for the “million dollar questions.”   :)





10 Burning Questions As Derby Week Begins

27 04 2009

With Kentucky Derby week finally upon us, I thought it best to poll the general public and get a sense for how opinions are shaping up.  We’ve got an interesting field to separate between now and Saturday, and with that many burning questions to answer.   Will we have a shot at a Triple Crown (we know at least for two weeks in between the Derby and the Preakness we will)?  Who is the consensus favorite?  How does the pace setup?   And perhaps more importantly than all of that, how do we choose between the interesting mid-tier and lower horses who appear to be of comparable  quality? 

Here’s the 10  “burning questions” I’m  most interested in hearing from all of you on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want RevengeFeel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan FireDrops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 DunkirkStill has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old FashionedHas a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert PartyI felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky

 

  • #8 Win WillyI’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket ManNot sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).





Imperial Council wants revenge

3 04 2009

Four weeks ago, I Want Revenge served notice on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail by turning in an impressive 113 Beyer figure on his way to an 8 1/2 length victory over Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  This Saturday, Imperial Council will make his bid for revenge as the two square off in the 85th running of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  The Wood is part of  an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence that begins with the Bayshore (G3), moves on to the Excelsior (G3) and finishes with the Carter Handicap (G1). 

The field sets up like this:

  • #2 I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 4/5*
  • #3 Lord Justice (C.C. Lopez/ T. Pletcher) 15/1
  • #4Cellar Dweller (A. Napravnik/ J. Campo) 30/1
  • #1 Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/K. Breen) 6/1
  • #1A West Side Bernie (S. Elliot/ K. Breen) 6/1
  • #5 Imperial Council (E. Prado/C. McGaughey) 2/1
  • #6 Just a Coincidence (J. Velazquez/ N. Zito) 12/1
  • #7 Lime Rickey (J. Castellano/ F. Alexander) 20/1

Past Performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

Looking back at I Want Revenge in his dominating performance in the Gotham, the son of Stephen Got Even had everything go his way.  He was able to comfortably stalk a soft pace and when he made his move to surge past Mr. Fantasy, the race was over.  Imperical Council came running hard from the back of the pack to close to 2nd, but never was able to threaten I Want Revenge. 

 

If he gets the same trip in the Wood, the outcome will likely be exactly the same.  From a pace setup, you could argue that the Wood figures to be run a bit quicker than the Gotham was.   If Lord Justice runs here (he’s also entered in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on Saturday), than he’s your likely pace setter.  However, Atomic Rain may show some speed as well, as might Nick Zito’s Just a Coincidence.  Might that open things up for Imperial Council coming off the pace? 

Imperial Council likely left himself way too much to do in the Gotham, and closing into I Want Revenge’s dream trip was seemingly an impossibility.  Today he’ll get an extra half furlong of ground, plus a bit wider turns as they move from the inner track to the main track.  Couple that with perhaps a better pace scenario and I think an upset here starts to become a possibility.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again;  despite the attention that Pioneer of the Nile receives on the California circuit, it would not surprise me if Imperial Council turned out to be the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop of three-year-olds – and Saturday just might be his day.  It’s also worth noting that he’s got Edgar Prado back in the saddle, so a return to his previous style of being noticeably closer to the pace should be expected.  Even trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted as saying as much in Saturday’s DRF

West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain make an intriguing pair of runners, but ultimately their coupling actually deflates the betting attraction of this race.   With only seven possible numbers to punch in your ticket, don’t expect bank breaking value here.  I’d cover the top 2 runners if you’re wading into the $400,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool and move on. 

I think the world of I Want Revenge and have been a fan of jockey Joe Talamo’s since well before he earned fame on the series “Jockeys” - but I’ll probably play against him this weekend and look for Imperial Council at slightly better odds.  I suspect the public will hammer I Want Revenge thanks to his impressive speed figures, so even that 4/5 value on the morning line might not hold.  Admittedly I’d like a bit better risk/reward value than 2/1 on Imperial Council, but I’d be happy to get 3/1 or so by post time.  I think both of these horses are Kentucky Derby worthy, and with I Want Revenge most likely having his card already punched, we’ll see if Imperial Council can join him at the big party on the First Saturday in May.

It’s not that I don’t think I Want Revenge will win – he probably will, it’s just that there’s no value in taking him, and I can come up with a few scenarios in my mind where he could be vulnerable (could is the operative term there, note that I did not say “would”).   In the end I’ll be betting on the fact that while he may be clearly better than Imperial Council, I doubt that he’s really 8 lengths better.   This one ought to be closer, and Imperial Council should at least have a chance if all goes well. 

Alas, there is no 10 cent Superfecta wagering available on the Wood, so I’ll skip the single race exotic wagering and save my bankroll for later plays.  Besides – we’re going Pick 4 or bust at Aqueduct.  It’s time to welcome in April in triumphant style!

In the other races of the Pick 4 sequence  I like Capt. Candyman Can and Not for Silver in the Bayshore (G3).  I’ll spread a little deeper in the Excelsior (G3) and cover Barrier Reef, Alaazo, and Cool Coal Man.  In the Carter Handicap (G1) I’ll cover four numbers with True Quality, Fabulous Strike, Tale of Ekati, and Kodiak Kowboy.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #5 Imperial Council
  • Race 7  All stakes Pick 4:  4,6/1,2,6/2,5/1,3,4,7  ($48)

 








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