Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Weekend roundup: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby selections

9 04 2010

Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run.  It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.

Thanks to increased media coverage this year, much of that growing has occurred RIGHT before our eyes, with as many as 2 million tuning in to watch last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby broadcast on NBC.  This weekend the action shifts to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass, and Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

Yes, friends, the Take Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.

Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago.   The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.

Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passing was received with sadness today.  Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday.  While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say):  There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training.  Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)

We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland.  For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.  In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May.  All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #2 First Dude (8/1)
  • #3 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
  • #5 Codoy (30/1)
  • #6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
  • #7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
  • #8 Aikenite (4/1)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)

I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:

You all know how fond I am of ODYSSEUS.  He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race.  It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me.  In fact, it stinks.  If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense?  There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.

The whole thing just feels like a bad idea.  He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track.  Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.

What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic.  I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.

“An odd set, stony quality to it.  As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it.  The way you feel before an ill-considered attack.  Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it.  You must even take part, help it fail!”

Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows?  Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?

Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong.  He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on.  Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.

As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby.  My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.

The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace.  Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.

It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field.  Will it be enough to prevail?  I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.

Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well.  It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts.  With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.

Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward.  Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.

Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO.  Paddy is worth considering for good reason.  All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End.  What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer?  Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.

Selections:

I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity.  What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse.  Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.

I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)
  • #7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)

Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in!  The $1 million Arkansas Derby!  Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking.  The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #4 Northern Giant (8/1)
  • #5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
  • #6 New Madrid (20/1)
  • #7 Berberis (30/1)
  • #8 Line Of David (15/1)
  • #9 Pulsion (15/1)

SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position.  So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.

All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire.  Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end.  With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.

DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE.  I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.

If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS.  I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.

Selections:

  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone.  We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings.  May the horse be with you all.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Interactif, Keeneland, Noble's Promise, Oaklawn Park, Odysseus

The Sixth Sense – Kentucky Derby Rankings: 4/3/2010

4 04 2010

With only 4 Saturdays remaining before the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it’s time to once again wade into the murky, otherworldly ether of the 3-year-old division of thoroughbred horse racing and attempt to find reason.  That task has become easier thanks to the HD broadcasts of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby on NBC last Saturday and the jaw dropping 109 Beyer earning performance of Eskendereya in the Wood.

The victory solidified the colt with the Egyptian name as the top contender and most likely favorite for the first Saturday in May.  That doesn’t mean it’s a slam dunk that Eskendereya will win the Derby. Remember, just last year we were in virtually the same position after I Want Revenge wowed us with an impressive Wood victory only to wind up being a late scratch on Derby morning. For now though, it’s clear that Eskendereya deserves to be considered the top of the class.

Of course, Eskendereya wasn’t the only show in town.  American Lion wired the field to win the Grade 3 Illinois Derby, and across the nation in California Sidney’s Candy turned in another brilliant front running performance that featured an odd, nearly catastrophic ride for the favored Lookin at Lucky.  Evidently Garrett Gomez went after Victor Espinoza (who was aboard longshot Who’s Up) after the race.

The victories by American Lion, Eskendereya, and Sidney’s Candy bring up another question for the 2010 Derby:  pace.  So far it looks like any number of contenders on the graded earnings list will be on-or-near the lead.  At some point that has to factor into the equation when ranking these horses.

That being said, I’m not sure if it’s going to matter, and there’s simply no way to ignore the dominating nature of Eskendereya’s performance.  Without hesitation, I move the colt above my beloved Odysseus in this, our sixth installment of the Derby rankings.

  • #1 Eskendereya

Monster performances in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Wood Memorial establish the Todd Pletcher trained son of Giant’s Causeway as THE horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.  Worthy favorite.  If there is a weakness, perhaps he will be more vulnerable with a hotly contested pace?

  • #2 Odysseus

I may be dropping him from my top spot, and a sub-par performance this weekend could leave him on the outside of the top 20 on the graded earnings list headed to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m loyal to my favorites – and there’s been something about this chestnut beauty that has stirred my emotions since I first spotted him after the allowance score at Tampa Bay Downs.  I’d prefer the Arkansas Derby be his final prep, but it looks like he could face Interactif and Aikenite in the Toyota Blue Grass instead.  God go with you wherever your travels may take you, big red horse!

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Like many, there was a moment in the Santa Anita Derby where I feared for the sport that one of our bigger 3-year-old “stars” was injured.  Thankfully, it appears that the son of Smart Strike came out of the race okay, although his jockey was a bit fired up.  Bob Baffert didn’t get the trip he wanted in the Santa Anita Derby, but the gutsy way  he fought back for 3rd after being nearly stopped on the track showed what this horse is all about.  He may be a bit crazy in the head, but he’s the kind of guy you’re always going to respect in a fight.

  • #4 Sidney’s Candy

It feels almost sacrilegious to rank a “speed horse” 4th on this list.  I’m sure there will be numerous folks pointing out the folly for having done so, without even reading what follows.  The fact of the matter is that I’m not putting this horse here because I believe he has the 4th best shot to win the Derby.  I’m putting him here because I think he has earned the right to be ranked among the top 4 horses prepping for the Derby.  It looks to me like the son of Candy Ride can answer the distance question, but the way the Derby is shaping up the pace scenario will likely be an altogether different story.

  • #5  Ice Box

Given the potential pace setup for the Kentucky Derby, it seems as though a Grade 1 winning closer belongs in the top 5, even if he was dusted by Eskendereya in the G2 Fountain of Youth in February.  He was “off slow” that day, and may be in better form now.  His running style, his experience against the likely favorite, his G1 prestige, and the likely pace outlook for Kentucky Derby 136 all suggest he belongs in the discussion.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

The more I see of this colt, the more I like him.  Won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46 over Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit.  The  son of Distorted Humor seems to be peaking at the right time and I love his fast improving form.  Some question whether he is headed for a bounce in the KY Derby, and have suggested he’s just an inflated G3 winner (like Odysseus), but my gut tells me this is a better race horse than many yet realize.

  • #8 Awesome Act

Had the second worst trip of the day last Saturday (with top honors going to Lookin at Lucky) after being under a stranglehold from jockey Julien Leparoux in the early goings of the G1 Wood Memorial.  My guess is they were trying to force him to relax some early on.  A gorgeous looking son of Awesome Again, on his best stuff I think he’s a much better horse than what we saw, despite the thrashing the entire field took.  Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams, and Awesome Act were fighting it out for the minor awards, and sir Awesome was able to hang on for show.  Needs a better trip to be a player in the Derby.

  • #9 Noble’s Promise

Will likely continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield horse of this list that gets no respect from outsiders.  In fact, I think he and Jackson Bend are the most routinely disrespected horses  of the entire crop, which is a shame considering these two give it their all each time they touch the track.  Yes, smart guys, I know he’s a son of Cuvee, but evidently someone has forgotten to tell this horse he doesn’t belong.  Over $700k  in graded earnings and a shot in the G1 Arkansas Derby up next.

  • #10 Interactif

Stays on this list because we need another off-the-pace type and he probably has as good a shot as any to win the Blue Grass this weekend and further solidify his graded earnings qualifications. I toyed with adding Setsuko to the top 10, but it looks like that one is “on the bubble.”  This colt could make some noise on national television this weekend.

Honorable Mention:

  • Blind Luck – likely Oaks favorite would seem to make some sense if they gave her a shot – she could probably beat many of these colts.
  • Jackson Bend – colt just keeps on hitting exactas – despite all the haters.
  • Pleasant Prince – 2nd place finisher of the G1 Florida Derby
  • Super Saver – will look for an improved performance this weekend
  • Drosselmeyer – Had a nice effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby
  • Dean’s Kitten – Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • Setsuko – closed well in the Santa Anita Derby, but may miss the graded earnings cutoff.  Was on our initial top list of the year.
  • Devil May Care – Todd Pletcher says the Bonnie Miss winner deserves to be in the discussion.

Up next up are the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  We’ll have selections for each race available by Friday evening.  Last weekend 8 out of the 9 horses we gave out in our Derby Fever selections wound up hitting the board, with two top choice winners (Eskendereya and American Lion) along with a 2nd choice winner in Sidney’s Candy.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Endorsement, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Episode IV: A New Hope

22 03 2010

With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things.  The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor.  We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings.  The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest.  Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be.  There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.

For now, doing our best Steve Haskin impression, here’s where we stand on the matter:

  • #1 Odysseus

No surprises here.  The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks.  Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point).  From the moment we first noticed him,  the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for.  He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing.  I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower.  This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin.  Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The  horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason.  The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  I learned my lesson.  Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned.  He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch.  He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave).  If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.

How awesome is Awesome Act?  Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:

As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.

  • #5 Ice Box

Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.  He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting.  Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

  • #7 Conveyance

Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect.  Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner.  Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend.  You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done.  We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.

  • #9 Interactif

While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May?  Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit.  I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

Honorable Mention:

The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):

  • Connemara
  • Schoolyard Dreams
  • Pleasant Prince
  • Dublin
  • Super Saver
  • Rule
  • Drosselmeyer
  • Jackson Bend
  • Tempted to Tapit
  • Caracortado

Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby.  Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race.  Until then, may the horse be with you.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy


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