Breeders’ Cup Classic Selections

5 11 2009

Finally – it’s Classic time.  The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million.  Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.

Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite.  Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin.  Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretch that at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator. 

Will things be different this year?  It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night.  Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta?  Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won?   We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.

Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to our TBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature.  Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet.  Contact Handride if you have any questions about how to enter your picks.  I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly. 

Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend.  Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches.  Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.

Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:

  1. Mine That Bird (12/1)
  2. Colonel John (12/1)
  3. Summer Bird (9/2)
  4. Zenyatta (5/2*)
  5. Twice Over (20/1)
  6. Richard’s Kid (12/1)
  7. Gio Ponti (12/1)
  8. Einstein (12/1)
  9. Girolamo (20/1)
  10.  Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  11.  Regal Ransom (20/1)
  12.  Quality Road (12/1)
  13.  Awesome Gem (30/1)

“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric.  Looks like it’s on today…”  (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)

MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derby back in May.  Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.  He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here.  He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.

COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him.  He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart.  It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge.  He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors.  If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance.  For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that. 

SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field.  This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces.  The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park.  Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets.  Am I worried about the synthetics?  Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing.  Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her.  Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado.  He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised.  Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.

ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?”  The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now.  This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing.  If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell.  My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007.  I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.”  The rest, quite literally, is history.  I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail.  If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire.  You KNOW she’ll be flying late. 

TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line.  I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here?  We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1).  He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race.  Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then.  Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.

RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando.  In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets. 

GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment.  So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf?  I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance.  The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December.  If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances.  He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.

EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years.  I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness.  Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing.  His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.”  A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle.  Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here. 

GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy.  He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.  For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise.  I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom.  He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before.  That might be asking just a tad too much here.

RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic.  The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts.  Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm).  In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero.  The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here.  In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen.  As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).

REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year.  Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2).  He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead.  Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here.  Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.

QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009.  This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race.  The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York.  I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on.  It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor.  One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces. 

AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile.  I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.

How do I see this race playing out?  I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on .  As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her.  RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER.  This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back. 

I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages.  I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob.  Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line.  No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given.  God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.

Selections:

  • #10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  • #4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
  • #3 Summer Bird (9/2)

Best of luck to all!  May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember.  Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well.  For quick access, you can locate those posts here.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Colonel John, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Mine That Bird, Quality Road, Santa Anita, Summer Bird, TBA, Zenyatta

Zenyatta’s return highlights BIG weekend of racing action

9 10 2009

Another weekend is upon us.  Is it just me, or does this seem to happen like clockwork every 7 days?  Very strange.  You’ll forgive me for drifting here and there as we’ve got twelve big races to cover in what promises to be an exciting weekend of racing.  The biggest (and baddest) name on the entries is obviously Zenyatta – the undefeated mare attempting to equal the feat of Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive start of her career. 

Here’s a quick roundup of the major races being run at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet.  I’ve organized them by order of post time so that they flow in sequence – which means we’ll be bouncing between the tracks a bit here. 

Belmont – Race 4 – The Jamaica Handicap (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – 2:35 (ET)

We kick things off with the 60th running of the Jamaica H.   The two horses that appear to have the biggest shot here are #2 COURAGEOUS CAT and #6 TAKE THE POINTS.  The latter we know from the Preakness earlier in the year and his victory in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 8.  COURAGEOUS CAT is the horse I’ve got to take here.  Despite being the morning line favorite at 2/1, he might wind up offering slightly better value if TAKE THE POINTS takes a lot of money at the windows. The son of Storm Cat is also named for one of my favorite childhood cartoon stars.  Most folks don’t remember Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, but I do.  #3 GRASSY looks like a runner with a big shot in here as well.  I could also make a case for adding in #7 MR SANDMAN and #1 STRAIGHT STORY on the bottom of the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #2 Courageous Cat (2/1*)
  • #6 Take the Points (5/2)
  • #3 Grassy (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 5 – The Woodford (Grade 3) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – 3:23 (ET)

We visit Keeneland for the first time today for the 13th running of The Woodford.  I’m not much of a turf sprint handicapper, and I know it’s one of my weaker areas, so we’ll keep this one simple.  I like #2 MR. NIGHTLINGER in here, despite the 2/1 odds. The son of Indian Charlie has not had quite the banner year many of us expected to have, with only 1 victory thus far in 5 starts.  One of the main reasons I’m backing him though is that he’s got talent and shows early speed – something which can be noteworthy from time to time at Keeneland.  He will be tested though, as #7 SILVER TIMBER looks like a good one for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Prime Timber is the most likely to get first run at MR. NIGHTLINGER if he can’t hold on out in front.  #6 DIE DATE is another horse worth considering in this field.  He gives you a consistently even effort every time out, although he may be better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets.  Other horses worth ticket consideration would appear to be #5 BULLET FROM ABROAD and #8 FORT PRADO. 

Selections:

  • #2 Mr. Nightlinger (2/1*)
  • #7 Silver Timber (5/2)
  • #6 Due Date (7/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 6 – The Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs – 4:00 (ET)

We stay in Keeneland for the 29th running of the TCA.  #8 INFORMED DECISION is the overwhelming favorite on the morning line at 3/5.  While that might be cause to try and beat her, the daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven deadly (3 for 3) at Keeneland in her career.  She’s also won all 5 of her synthetic starts.  Just keep that in mind if you try to take her down.  The most logical contender would seem to be #6 CARLSBAD, who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delmar last out. Tyler Baze is the listed rider, meaning he’s left the friendly confines of California.  There’s enough value here on the morning line (5/1) to warrant stong consideration. #5 BOLD UNION is another interesting runner who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delaware.  The Dixie Union filly has only raced once over the synthetics, and it was nothing to write home about, but she does have speed and that can be a big factor in sprint races. I like the two “Ashley” horses (#1 AWESOME ASHLEY and #4 PIOUS ASHLEY) enough to include them on the bottom of my tickets, and I might take a chance underneath with #3 PORTE BONHEUR as well, as she’s proven she can handle the synthetics at Woodbine last November. 

Selections:

  • #8 Informed Decision (3/5*)
  • #6 Carlsbad (5/1)
  • #5 Bold Union (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 7 – The First Lady (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 4:35 (ET)

You know, we just love Keeneland so much that we’ll hang around for another race, whaddya think?  The First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 1 mile over the turf.  #5 FOREVER TOGETHER is currently listed atop most rankings of oder turf females in the U.S., and will be the morning line favorite at even odds.  The daughter of Belong to Me was absolutely dominating at times last year, but has had some trouble putting together consistent victories this year.  If her current pattern of running 1st, 2nd – 1st, 2nd continues, she’s due for a victory.  If only it were that simple.  Working in her favor will be the fact that she gets a little pace to run into with #4 TIZAQUEENA and #9 SUPERIOR STORM on her flanks.  That should help her have a big race.  #6 MY PRINCESS JESS and #8 DIAMONDRELLA are two runners who could also get good trips and who would obviously offer more value on the tote board.  At least work them into your exotics.

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (3/5*)
  • # 6 My Princess Jess (6/1)
  • #4 Tizaqueena (12/1)

 

Belmont – Race 8 – The Frizette (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 4:43 (ET)

It’s back to New York for the 62nd running of the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies. #3 NONA MIA looks like the horse to beat here coming off an impressive 12 length score out to break her maiden.  Being a daughter of Empire Maker, I’m not as concerned about how she’ll handle the distance as perhaps I ought to be. #4 AWESOME MARIA should have a say as to how things turn out as well.  The daughter of Maria’s Mon is already a Grade 2 winner having defeated several of today’s rivals in the Matron on September 19.  The rest of the field looks fairly even behind these two.  #6 FRANNY FREUD, #5 TOUCHING BEAUTY, and #2 DEVIL MAY CARE all came up as having chances to hit the board based on my own personal handicapping methods, as did #7 WORSHIP THE MOON.  I’ll probably box the top two choices on top and then take all of these guys on the bottom of the trifecta.  That’s my initial plan at least.  We’ll see if se can get a good look at them in the post parade to narrow it down a bit more.  I went with TOUCHING BEAUTY as my 3rd choice by a slim margin – mostly due to the fact that she was sired by Tapit. 

Selections:

  • #3 Nonna Mia (5/2)
  • #4 Awesome Maria (2/1*)
  • #5 Touching Beauty (5/1)

 

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree)  – Race 4 – The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – 2:00 (PT)

Time to head out west to the lovely Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita for the 33rd running of the Yellow Ribbon.  The two big names in this field are #1 MAGICAL FANTASY and #7 VISIT.  MAGICAL FANTASY exits 3 consecutive victories, including two at the Grade 1 level in the John C Mabee and the Gamely.  This is clearly one of the better turf mares on the California circuit and she should be respected as such. VISIT is a 4-year-old that has always seemed on the cusp of greatness, yet has a tendency to run for minor slices of the pie.  Garrett Gomez will get acquainted once again with the daughter of Oasis Dream , who should be firing at about the same time as MAGICAL FANTASY.  This could be a good battle between these two runners in the stretch.  As for the rest of the field, #4 BLACK MAMBA is a dangerous runner who can jump up and run a big one from time to time. Trainer John Sadler might have her primed for a big effort this weekend.  I’m also familiar enough with both #2 LEMONETTE and #3 LEMON CHIFFON that I’ll probably include them on the bottom of my tickets as well.  If I’m not mistaken, LEMON CHIFFON was one of the horses I hit at the NTRA Handicapping Contest last fall in Las Vegas. 

Selections:

  • #1 Magical Fantasy (8/5*)
  • #7 Visit (5/1)
  • #4 Black Mamba (5/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 8 – The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 5:10 (ET)

Now we head back to Kentucky for more 2-year-old action in the Breeders’ Futurity.  The colt I’m most anxious to see here is #2 BACKTALK.  The son of Smarty Jones had won 3 in a row to start his career before drawing the 12 hole last out in the Hopeful.  Will he like the synthetics at Keeneland?  Well, if his bullet workout there on October 5 is any indication, he out to handle the surface switch just fine.  That being said, I’m going with #8 AKENITE as my top choice.  Why?  Well, the son of Yes it’s True will offer some value at the windows, and might be overlooked.  Plus, look at that last race where he lost to Dublin and Aspire.  Those two are the top choices for the Champagne, run just 5 minutes later at Belmont (and coming up next in our selections).  If those two are among the best in the young and developing division, then that could be a race to key on.   Maybe if they don’t leave him with as much to do and go for a more even effort?  It’s worth a chance is all i’m saying.  #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is a logical contender as well, coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Best Pal and the Delmar Futurity.  I have some questions about how this one will handle the distance, but I like that they’ve trained her at 7 furlongs following a game effort at that same distance. Note that Tyler Baze will also be aboard this runner, so he’s got a couple of potentially live mounts on the card.  A horse that might get overlooked and is in all honesty probably compromised by their starting position is #14 STATELY VICTOR.  Don’t be surprised if this son of Ghostzapper goes on to become the best horse of this field in due time. Whether he shows that on Saturday not is a bit of question mark, but I think he’s worth at least including underneath.   There’s plenty of other directions you could go here, depending on which horse you may already be familiar with or have developed some affection for.

Selections:

  • #8 Akenite (5/1)
  • #2 Backtalk (4/1*)
  • #7 Make Music for Me (6/1)

 

Belmont – Race 9 – The Champagne (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 5:15 (ET)

We head back to New York for the final time this afternoon for the Champagne.  If you start reading this and feel as though you’re having deja vu, don’t worry – we did just talk about some of these runners.  #5 DUBLIN comes into the race as the victor of the Hopeful at Saratoga.  In that race he held on to deny #3 ASPIRE, who will get the benefit of an extra furlong in his attempt to turn the tables on his rival.  Don’t I kind of have to go with a horse named ASPIRE since this is The Aspiring Horseplayer?  That’s just too strong a vibe for me to pass up.  In all honesty, I rate these two extremely close to one another, and while if my life depended on it, I’d probably side with DUBLIN, I”ll take a chance and go with ASPIRE here.  The horse that might be the x-factor here is #6 HOMEBOYKRIS for Rick Dutrow Jr.  #4 DISCREETLY MINE also rates a chance here as this son of Mineshaft did run well against Dutrow’s other prized possession in the 2-year-old division thus far, D’Funnybone.

Selections:

  • #3 Aspire (3/1)
  • #5 Dublin (8/5*)
  • #6 Homeboykris (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 9 – The Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) -5:45 (ET)

The finale of the marquee races at Keeneland for Saturday is the 24th running of the Shadwell Turf Mile.  I’ll consider taking a chance here with #9 COURT VISION, despite the fact that the son of Gulch has not won a race since the Hollywood Derby last November. He’s running for Dutrow now, which in itself is cause for improvement, and adds the blinkers back on, which he’s had off the last 3 races.  Call me crazy but I think this helps keep him focused in the stretch and gives him a chance for the upset.  The monster of the race though is #7 JUSTENUFFHUMOR.  The son of Distorted Humor exits 6 consecutive victories, including the Bernard Baruch Handicap last out at Saratoga.  If he’s good enough to beat my boy Cowboy Cal, he’s good enough to take this field. #5 BATTLE OF HASTINGS is a horse I’ve given out several times here successfully, so you know he’ll be on my tickets again.

Selections:

  • #7 Justenuffhumor (5/2*)
  • #9 Court Vision (7/2)
  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 6 – The Oak Tree Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 3:00 (PT)

Things get a little bit calmer as we head out west to stay to finish up the day, beginning with the Oak Tree Mile.  Notice that there’s a theme here today where I talk about a horse in one race, and he shows up in the next.  #9 COWBOY CAL comes into the Mile having finished 2nd in the Bernard Baruch.  There’s something about this guy that I really admire.  He’s a gamer – and I think he could be in store for a big effort.  He’ll need to avoid a speed duel with #7 MONTERREY JAZZ though, and ought to press the pace from 2nd to give himself his best chance.  Coming off the pace will be #10 WHATSTHESCRIPT and #4 GLOBAL HUNTER, who each have big shots in here as well.  I’m going to stick with my COWBOY CAL on top, with GLOBAL HUNTER running big for 2nd.  WHATSTHESCRIPT has a tendency to run 3rd or 4th, and I’ll use him on the bottom.  Do give some props to the filly, #8 ALLICANSAYIS WOW – as she steps up to take on boys again.  She ran well for 2nd in the Delmar Mile, and finished ahead of Lethal Heat, a horse who (you guessed it) will come up again later in our picks.  I’d also keep MONTERREY JAZZ around in your tickets, being as that he is the speed of the speed.

Selections:

  • #9 Cowboy Cal (2/1*)
  • #4 Global Hunter (8/1)
  • #10 Whatsthescript (5/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 7 – The Goodwood (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – 3:30 (PT)

The feature race of the day is the final major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic – the 28th running of the Goodwood.  Wht a race we’ve got in store.  #4 COLONEL JOHN tries to get back to his winning ways on the main track following a disappointing 5th place finish in the Pacific Classic.  I thought the son o f Tiznow had a horrible trip that day and am expecting the real COLONEL JOHN to show up again this weekend.  He was, after all, my Derby selection back in 2008.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings the hot longshot winner #3 RICHARD’S KID in for the Goodwood with visions of the Classic dancing in his head.  Was that last win in the Pacific Classic a fluke, or has Baffert turned this guy into a top runner?  I wouldn’t let Bob Baffert burn you twice, if you know what I mean.  Of course, there are also some runners in here both seeking to regain respect and who are favorites of many fans.  #2 TIAGO is one class=”mceItemHidden”> of the few remnants of the talented 2007 crop of 3-year-olds that produced Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Tiago always was in their shadows, and despite ome success as a 4-year-old and some sexy Beyer figures on his resume, he’s only won $24,000 in 2 starts this year.  If he comes back like his old self, he actually makes some sense here.  This is the same team, remember, that gave the world Zenyatta (and Giacomo).  #5 TRES BORRACHOS still has the coolest name in all of racing (“3 drunks”).  And of course, there’s that guy that won the Kentucky Derby at 50/1, #10 MINE THAT BIRD.  How great would it be to see the son of Birdstone come back and run a big race?  He’s been on synthetics before – hell, he’s won on ‘em before, so if his throat surgery has got him back to the way he was this spring, he could make some noise here in his 1st start against older horses.   I haven’t even had a chance to mention #9 INFORMED (son of Tiznow), #6 MONZANTE (winner of the 2008 Eddie Read), and #7  PARADING (disappointing 4th in the Pacific Classic last out).  This looks like a great race – hopefully a glimmer of things to come on Breeders’ Cup weekend this November.

Selections:

  • #4 Colonel John (3/1*)
  • #4 Richard’s Kid (8/1)
  • #10 Mine That Bird (7/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree – Race 8 – The Lady’s Secret (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 4:00 (PT)

We wind up the day with the return of the undefeated Zenyatta – the super star of west coast thoroughbred racing.  I’ve covered this race already for the NTRA, and you’re welcome to read my assessment there.  The biggest question we’ll be looking to answer won’t come until after the race, once trainer John Shirreffs has had a chance to see how ZENYATTA comes out of the race.  That will ultimately determine whether she runs against boys on the Classic on Saturday, or defends her crown against the Ladies’ on Friday in the Breeders’ Cup.  Last time we saw her, ZENYATTA was flying home like a rocket towards a desperate photo finish with longshot #8 ANAABA’S CREATION.  This race could play out in similar fashion without an abundance of speed signed on.  Also note the presence of #1 COCOA BEACH, who in case folks forgot ran 2nd behind ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last year here at Santa Anita.  Hopefully we can get a good gauge on how she’s shaping up heading into the championships as well.  Stablemate #4 LIFE IS SWEET draws the misfortune of facing the monster that is ZENYATTA once again, after earlier reports that she would be pointing towards a turf race.  Then there’s #6 LETHAL HEAT, who just ran against the boys last weekend in the Cal Cup Classic (finishing 2nd).  She comes right back in what should be her final tune up for the Ladies’ Classic as well.  I think the class of ZENYATTA is too much for ‘em all in the end.  Look for ANAABA”S CREATIOn or COCOA BEACH underneath in second.  I’ll give LETHAL HEAT a big shot to hit the board as well along with LIFE IS SWEET.

Selections:

  • #5 Zenyatta (2/5*)
  • #8 Anaaba’s Creation (12/1)
  • #1 Cocoa Beach (6/1)

 

Whew – I need a break after all that ‘capping.  :)

Best of luck to all – and don’t forget about Icon Project this Sunday in the Spinster at Keeneland.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Colonel John, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Mine That Bird, Santa Anita, Tiago, Zenyatta

Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses.  In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches.  Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.  We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed.  With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided  jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do.  He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a  furlong or so too soon.  It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front.  After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early.  He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go. 

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish.  Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade.  For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire.  You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge. 

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated.  Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff. 

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression.  I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative.  Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1.  It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra. 

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history.   Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions.  Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track.  It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year.  The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner.  Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy.  He’s probably earned  himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover.  Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now?  We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge).  We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill.  We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness.  And now we’ve  had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape.  Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered?  Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint.  If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward. 

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory?  It’s still too early to say for sure.  Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess.  Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer.  Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years. 

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If  the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well.  The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors  to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall. 

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride.  It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold. 

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar. 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

  • #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
  • #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
  • #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
  • #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
  • #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
  • #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
  • #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
  • #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

 

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
  • #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
  • #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont Day; Undercard Selections

4 06 2009

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now. 

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store.  As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.   

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard.  It is jam packed with interesting races.  What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice.  My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade.  This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved.  I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so. 

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime.  It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks.  Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing.  You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime.  It’s still the best show in town. 

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing?  Because…we’re horseplayers.  And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen.   Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got.   C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time!  Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

 

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending  with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post.  It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post. 

Race 6:  The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
  • #2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
  • #3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
  • #4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
  • #5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

  • #1 Benny the Bull (5/2)
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)
  • #5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull.  Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch.  He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite.  Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike.  The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July.  If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll.  His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.  

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win.  Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle.  #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics.  You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe. 

 

Race 7:  The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

  • #1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
  • #2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
  • #3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
  • #5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
  • #6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
  • #8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (6/5*)
  • #6 Modern Look (8/1)
  • #7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together.  The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall.  She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance.  Clearly she’s the horse to beat.  The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?  

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look.  She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you.  However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve.  Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished  4th to last May at Longchamp (France):  Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven.  Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite. 

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April.  This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game.  One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess.  I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

 

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

  • #1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
  • #1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
  • #2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  • #3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
  • #4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
  • #6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
  • #7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
  • #8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

  • #2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)
  • #1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)
  • #8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently.  Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil.  You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January.  Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures.  He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way.  He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale). 

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well.  The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts.   Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead.  I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.  

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings.  Remember this guy?  At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles.  After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009.  Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance.  Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade.  I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here.  The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer.  If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play. 

 

Race 9:  The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

  • #1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
  • #3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
  • #5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
  • #7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

  • #8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)
  • #4 Funny Moon (8/1)
  • #7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie.  If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her.  Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions.  We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson.  The rest is history.  With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.  

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset.  Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field.  Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories.  If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.  

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath.  It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking.  On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement.  Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners.  Same goes for #9 Four Gifts.  This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail. 

 

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

  • #1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
  • #1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
  • #2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
  • #3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
  • #4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
  • #5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
  • #6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
  • #7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
  • #8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
  • #9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
  • #10  Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
  • #11  Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
  • #12  Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
  • #2B  Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

  • #6 Wesley (12/1)
  • #12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)
  • #1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day.  The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper.  Just look at this field!   I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8  Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner.  You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday.  I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries.  Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf.  Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on. 

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset.  #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns.  His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide.  I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3.  This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage. 

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official.  Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont.  This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown.  Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress). 

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again.  You know that he wanted to showcase his filly  in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory.  Like I’ve  said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra.  In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow;  sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage.  In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made. 

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net.  Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking.   Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today.  The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between.  What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this: 

  • “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”  

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt.  Nobody wants to see that.  It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts.  Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)?  They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated.   I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe.   How’d that one turn out?   How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?  And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar?   I just don’t get it.  Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back?   Because she’s a “she”?  See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being.  The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt.   If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well. 

The next line of comments goes something like this:

  • “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this.  Almost.  Do people even think before they speak?  She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown?  For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner.   Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness?  Did I miss something?  I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything?  If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof.  You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not. 

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness?   Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win?  That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown.  That’s what makes it special.  Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing.   I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears.  Same goes here.  You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful?  Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

 

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin???  That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.  

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.”  Oh really?   Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history.  Forgive me, then.   It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner.  On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness?  Yeah…didn’t think so.   If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen.   Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either.  He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding.   It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime.  I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07.  “Curlin got beat by a girl!”  Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was).  Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ?  Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl.  How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?). 

The last  line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

  • “Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all. 

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness.  How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me.  Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples?  Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats.  Here are the opening  1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness.  Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

  • opening 1/4 – :23.82
  • opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

  • opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
  • opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that?  Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness!   And why was that exactly?   Well, several reasons.  In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead.  Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30.   That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead.  The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing. 

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way.   She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns.  Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be.   Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate.  The result was a speed duel.  Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner.  It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man.   That’s what made her win so impressive.   It shouldn’t have happened.  Most horses would not have pulled it off.  In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83,  1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta. 

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like?  Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness.  I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome.   Eyes can be deceiving though.  Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.  

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of  looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.”   Would he?  Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different.  The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her.  That’s it.  That’s the only certain conclusion one can make.  The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas.   I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date.   Would those races be exciting? Most definitely!  But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat.  Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone. 

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off.  Rest up, baby girl.  There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond.  Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga.  I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself.   Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….  :-)


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Alibi Breakfast recap

14 05 2009

“Preakness Thursday” can mean only one thing if you’re in the Baltimore area, and that’s the annual Alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course.  A tradition going back to the 1930′s, the Alibi breakfast is one of the best kept secrets of thoroughbred racing’s 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.  Owners, trainers, dignitaries, and fans gather to honor those who have made contributions to the racing industry, as well as to stir things up with some juicy talk about the upcoming Preakness.  For yours truly, it’s the one opportunity of the year to rub elbows with some of the bigger names in the sport, and attempt to learn inside information about the race that is the focal point of my entire year.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

First things first, I was not able to fulfill priority #1, which was to meet “Team Rachel.”  Jess Jackson did not appear to be in attendance, nor was trainer Steve Asmussen.  Instead, assistant trainer Scott Blasi stood in for them.  While he may not be as well known from a household name perspective, he was the unsung hero behind the success of Curlin in ’07 and ’08.  He mentioned that the filly has looked amazing since he’d been with her and that they can’t wait to run her.  In a light hearted moment (the Alibi breakfast being filled with such moments), he answered a question concerning her outside post position in the 13 hole by saying “I just hope Calvin doesn’t forget where he is on the track and try to skim the outside rail.” 

One related piece of information that fans of Curlin will enjoy hearing is that yes, Pancho, the horse that travelled the globe with the 2007/2008 Horse of the Year has made the journey to Baltimore to be with Rachel Alexandra.  That can only be interpreted as a positive sign, as Pancho is highly regarded for having a calming effect on horses under his watch.  To many, Pancho is just as beloved as Curlin, which is really saying something for a horse that has gone almost completely unnoticed to the general public.   He’s a silent hero type.  Blasi mentioned during his speech that the connections of Rachel Alexandra do worry a bit about what might spook her or cause her to stress a bit.  With Pancho by her side, those fears have to be greatly reduced.  He’s a special horse in his own right, and his presence with Rachel makes me feel extremely good about her chances of running big on this, her biggest stage.

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

 

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty.  Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted).  He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go.   Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man.  It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year.   As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel.  For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick  after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge.

Perhaps the most amazing moment of the day for us was that we stood in the breakfast buffet line with the connections of Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, including trainer Chip Woolley Jr.   In fact, at one point Amy even tapped him on the shoulder and warned him that it looked like his wallet was about to fall out of his back pocket.  I’ve got to say, Mine That Bird’s connections cast quite the appearance, with their tall Texan cowboy hats, and they were consummate gentlemen.  During the ceremony, Woolley joked that he was unaccustomed to police escorts upon arriving to town, and mentioned that “the last time the cops were behind me, I went to jail.”  He also expanded upon his comments after the Derby indicating that he felt strongly that Mine That Bird’s victory was a “win for the little guys” around the world, and that while they were sad to lose jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra, they were quite pleased to pick up the services of Hall of Famer Michael Smith.  

I must confess here that while I was not a very big Mine That Bird fan going into the Preakness, it would be something else to see these guys win.  They were arguably the most down to earth and easily approachable of those connected to the Preakness runners.  You can tell they are still beaming with pride, as Woolley signed our program with a big “KD 135″ under his name.  Yes indeed, Derby 135 shall always be theirs to savor.

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Moving on, Gary Stute gave a heartfelt speech about how he had invited his father to see Papa Clem in the Preakness, as he worried this might be his last chance to do so.  Papa Clem is named after racing legend Clement Hirsch. Stute’s father is apparently not in the greatest of health.  He joked that he “insisted” his family come to see Papa Clem run in the Preakness, but that he had done so before he knew they were up against the filly.  On a side note, when first driving past the backside of Pimlico on our way in this morning, I saw Papa Clem galloping about (from the window of our moving car, mind you), and I thought he looked fantastic.   Personally, I think Papa Clem is being totally disrespected on the morning line at 12/1 (let me condition that by saying that yes, I understand that’s not the odds maker’s actual opinion and that it’s really just his prediction of how the betting public will wind up).  If the public does send this horse out at 12/1,  I think it’s a huge mistake.  Although it’s one I’ll try to capitalize on at the betting windows.

The moment that will probably stick out the most to those in attendance were the interviews with trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas.   Baffert indicated that he thought Pioneer of the Nile would get a good trip stalking behind the early pacesetters (assuming Big Drama goes from the 1 hole and that Rachel goes as well from the outside).   He also mentioned that he tried to purchase Rachel Alexandra at one point but that he was “too cheap” and couldn’t afford the hefty price tag.   He said that as a fan he was blown away by her performance in the Oaks.  Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneer of the Nile, and he looks to be one that could be sitting on a big performance.   I mentioned this on Facebook last evening, but there can’t be any doubt that he’ll be a part of the finish.  At 5/1 he’ll probably be the second choice when they go to post.  Baffert also mentioned that he went into the post draw hoping for the 9, 10, or 11 hole, and being as that they got the  9 hole with speed on both sides, he thought they were in good spot.

Lukas was the absolute highlight of the morning.  He started by discussing his two 50-1 longshots, Luv Gov and Flying Private.  He asked Woolley and the Mine That Bird connections for some advice on how to get things done at 50/1.  Then he offered that Luv Gov was named for former Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York, and joked that he had another filly named 9th Client.  In the end he said that he didn’t have any delusions of upsetting this field with a 50/1 longshot, but that he’s been in racing long enough to know that if you have horses that you think belong in the race, you might as well run them.  

An interesting tidbit for folks who are fond of Musket Man, for owners Eric Fein & Vic Carlson.  Mr. Carlson mentioned that while he likes his horses chances, he’d “probably be betting on him to show” against this field.  He also mentioned that his girlfriend (as a side note, Mr. Carlson and I seem to have a similar taste in women…just sayin’) advised that her lucky number was 3, so they feel good about the post position.  Personally I like this horse quite a bit.  It’s kind of hard to separate him, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem because they finished so close in the Derby.   He seems like a fighter though.  Plus, I love hearing his trainer, Derek Ryan, talk prior to races.  Sadly, I did not see him in attendance as I was hoping to get to meet him as well.

As for the rest of the field, the consensus seemed to be that Big Drama would be forced to go quickly from the inside post position.  A little birdie happened to mention to me that Big Drama has looked very impressive in their opinion while working out at Pimlico.  I know, I know, he wasn’t one of the horses I was going to play either, but just remember that last year the juicy piece of information I received from the Alibi breakfast was that Macho Again looked much better in training than his odds suggested.  I’m just throwing that out there (note, that juicy tidbit about Macho Agian is in the comments section of the post I’ve hyperlinked to from last year).

It also remains impossible to root against a horse like General Quarters and his trainer Thomas McCarthy.  By the way, in an interesting fact I had not heard before, it was revealed that McCarthy actually taught former NBA great Wes Unseld in High School back in Kentucky.  Unseld of course has deep Baltimore connections having coached the Washington Wizards (technically then known as the Washington Bullets) for years.

Lastly, if you’re looking to play a local angle, than consider that M&D Stables, who are sending out longshot Tone it Down (3rd in the Federico Tesio on May 2), are a Maryland operation through and through….right down to their silks, which are fashioned in the spirit of the Maryland flag.   Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Tone it Down, the same man who rode Big Brown to victory so brilliantly last year in the Preakness.

Overall, we wound up meeting, talking to, and getting autographs from ”Chip” Woolley Jr., D. Wayne Lukas, Larry Jones, Vic Carlson, and the connections to Tone it Down.  We also ran into some of the NTRA staff that I was privileged enough to meet last fall at the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas (and to my surprise, they remembered who I was – even remembered my name!).  Along the way we also managed to consume several Black Eyed Susans, making us the proud owners of 4 of the prized collector’s item Preakness glasses.  We would’ve made out with more, but that was all we could carry.

 

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

I also want to give a HUGE shout out to our friends Tex and Cindy from over at horseracing.about.com.   Without them, Amy and I would likely have never even attempted to take in an Alibi breakfast, and what an experience we’d have missed.   One final parting shout out here to Carrie Everly, the VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club.  I don’t know that I’ve ever met a host who makes us feel more welcomed anywhere in the world.  She goes out of her way to make us feel like we belong.  Carrie, if you’re reading this, please know how much we appreciate you.  The MJC is lucky to have a person like you in their employ. 

Alright….now I just need to rest off those Black Eyed Susans and get to handicapping.  I’ll be back later tonight with a full lineup of picks for tomorrow’s races on, what else, Black Eyed Susan day!  :)


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Rachel Alexandra, Mine That Bird

Mine That Bird shocks the world!

2 05 2009

Jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-RAIL) has done it again, exploding up the rail in the 135th  Kentucky Derby to shock the world by winning the nation’s biggest race at odds of 50/1.  The win completes a perfect sweep of the both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby, and both in amazing style.  Mine That Bird was 50/1 on the tote board going to post, and goes down as the second longest priced horse to win the Kentucky Derby in it’s storied history.

50/1!!!!!!  Are you kidding me?  In the Derby?  Wow, guess we just missed “the next Giacomo.”  Watching Calvin celebrate afterwards all one can wonder is how one man can dominate one lane at one track so thoroughly as Calvin Borel does at Churchill Downs along the rail?  It is absolutely astonishing.  Twice now in the last 3 years he’s made the same move and won the Derby.   

On Friday we had visions of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont as Rachel Alexandra throttled the Oaks field by over 20 lengths. On Saturday we were treated to visions of Street Sense in the ’07 Derby, as Calvin  Borel  did what he always does.  He found the rail, made his move, and then continued to to extend throughout the stretch.  Mind That Bird opened up a final margin of 6  3/4 lengths and completed the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby in 2:02.66.

How on earth did this happen?   A son of  Birdstone, Mine That Bird had never broken the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level.  In fact, he had barely broken the 80′s.  Talk about a stunning improvement. Exiting back to back less-than-inspiring performances in ungraded stakes at Sunland Park, for goodness sakes, he was less than an afterthought.   I ‘ll be honest.  I had him ranked as the third from lowest contender in this field.  That’s right - 3rd from last.   Never saw that coming in a million years. The only runners I had behind him were Atomic Rain (who finished 16th), and Flying Private (who finished last).  Of course, the horse I did have finished 18th (Friesan Fire).  Sigh.

Yet Mine That Bird, somehow, was clearly the best.  Once you could see him making his move along the rail, all you could think of was “wait, who the heck is that along the rail?”  As if we even needed to ask.  It could only be one man, and just like he did aboard Street Sense in 2007, he did again in 2009.  

In the “race behind the race”, an interesting battle was happening that many racing fans may have missed.  Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem battled it out and ultimately rounded out the superfecta, respectively.  Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird were another 6 lengths back from the top four. 

The final results with beaten lengths was as follows:

  • #8 Mine That Bird  —
  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile – 6  3/4
  • #2 Musket Man – 6 3/4
  • #7 Papa Clem – 7
  • #11 Chocolate Candy – 13
  • #17 Summer Bird – 13 1/4
  •  #9 Join in the Dance – 14 1/2
  • #10 Regal Ransom – 15
  • #1 West Side Bernie – 15 3/4
  • #12 General Quarters – 17 3/4
  • #15 Dunkirk – 19 1/4
  • #5 Hold Me Back – 20 3/4
  • #4 Advice – 21 1/4
  • #19 Desert Party – 22
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff – 22 1/4
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide – 35 1/4
  • #6 Friesan Fire – 42 3/4
  • #20 Flying Private – 44

Obviously the most disappointing of these was post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths.  Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched.  My apologies to the Larry Jones camp.  Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury.  Finishing 40 lengths back at his talent level is more than worrisome.

All of this makes the Preakness, just 2 weeks away, a more intriguing race. 

  • How many runners will be scared away from Mine That Bird?  
  • Was it the sloppy track? 
  • Was it some other factor that makes him vulnerable two weeks from now (and beyond)? 

I’m thinking many will be expecting a significant bounce off of that performance.  The Preakness, due to it’s reduced field size of 12, tends to be a better barometer in terms of absolute talent. 

Speaking of which…we  went into the week thinking we had a fairly good handle on who the best 3-year-olds in the country were.  We leave with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird  seemingly on a level of their own.  Hats off to the connections of each.  

Is there any chance we might see them in the Preakness two weeks from now at Pimlico?   We can only dream.  What a matchup that would be.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Coverage, Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Pioneer of the Nile, horse racing, Papa Clem, Mine That Bird


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