Saturday Breeders’ Cup Quick Picks

25 10 2008

It’s Championship Saturday!  Look, I don’t care who you are, if you’re alive and breathing you need to be playing along in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools at Santa Anita today. We’ve got 9 championship races – from the Marathon to the Classic.  I won’t be giving out a “caveman” ticket here today, as I’ll likely be all over the place and switching things up right up until the cutoff.  Instead, we’ll look at each race and I’ll just throw out some horses I think deserve win consideration.  Hopefully this helps folks boil down to the horses they can choose from for their exotic wagers.

Race 1: Breeders’ Cup Marathon ($500,000)

  • #4 Sixties’ Icon (2/1*)
  • #6 Zappa (5/2)
  • #8 Cedar Mountain (6/1)
  • #5 Muhannak (20/1)
  • #3 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Sixties’ Icon could make this one simple if he shows up in his recent form.  He’s got 3 straight wins overseas and won a group 2 race at this distance over the turf at Newmarket in May ’07.  As long as he takes to the track it should be his, but that’s always the question with these types. 

Zappais the next likely candidate based on his effort in the Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar on 7/30/08.  Since then he’s been soundly beaten by the likes of Well Armed and Go Between – who thankfully he avoids today.  The key with him is not biting off more than he can chew from a competition standpoint, and he certainly fits with this field.

Cedar Mountainwas my original pick in our polls at the beginning of the week.  I heard Watchmaker mention him as well when talking with Matt  Carouthers on TVG yesterday.  He’s at a fair price and has at least shown synthetic form (and decent at that) compared to the favorite.

My bombs for the race would be Muhannak (20/1) and Delightful Kiss (8/1).  I really like Muhannak here.  He’s won at this distance on both turf and synthetics.  I’ll play him at 20/1 all day long.

 

Race  2: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint ($1,000,000)

  • #13 Get Funky (9/2*)
  • #3 True to Tradition (15/1)
  • #2 Fleeting Spirit (5/1)
  • #9 Desert Code (30/1)

Turf sprints certainly aren’t my strong suit, but this one appears predictable on paper.  Mr. Nightlinger and Calfironia Flag will be part of what should be a white hot pace.  This should open things up for my top two picks.  Get Funky  has crept up in my rankings since I originally picked True to Tradition earlier in the week.  I still like them both, and obviously favor the odds on the latter, but Get Funky gets the slight nod now for having experience over the downhill turf course.  ‘Funky is the favorite, but 9/2 is a pretty fair price.

Fleeting Spirit  warrants consideration not only for being a Euro-invader (always a threat on the grass), but for chasing a talented Marchand d’Or lat time out in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (Group 1).  Obviously he’ll have to take to the firm turf at Santa Anita to run big.

My longshot bomb for the race is Desert Code at 30/1.  He’s 3 for 5 at this distance and can flirt with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.  One of t he rare times you’ll see a jockey switch from Gomez to Migliore potentially yield rewards.

 

Race 3: Breeder’s Cup DIrt Mile ($1,000,000)

  • #8 Well Armed (3/1*)
  • #7 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #2 Lewis Michael (5/1)
  • #2 Surf Cat (6/1)

The “synthetic mile” got a little less interesting when Mast Track defected (possibly – he’s in one moment and out the next depending on where you turn).  I’m pretty chalky here with no real bombs. Well Armed  just looks like the play to me. I’m not sure he can be beat, and I suspect he’ll get pounded well below 3/1 at the windows.   Lewis Michael will probably float up to 2nd choice, but I wasn’t impressed with the workouts I caught on TVG (and it didn’t seem like they were all that impressed either).  Albertus Maximus could offer some “value” if the other two get bet down.  Surf Cat  probably can’t win this, although I’ll be shocked if he’s not in the superfecta.  He’s too good not to hit somewhere.  I know my wife wants Pyro here at long odds, but I can’t imagine him pulling off the upset.  My Pal Charlie  was rumored to have been training well for the event, so take that into consideration when filling out your superfecta.

 

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf – $2,000,000)

  • #4 Goldikova (3/1*)
  • #2 Kip Deville ((5/1)
  • #8 Daytona (6/1)
  • #11 Whatsthescript (4/1)
  • #3 Precious Kitten (8/1)

This one should be about Goldikova - provided she likes the footing here at Santa Anita.  The multiple Group 1 winner may “only” be a 3-year-old filly, but she’s part of an excellent crop from Europe and actually enters with a distinct class advantage over the U.S. runners.  Note that the last horse to defeat her was Zarkava, who would be odds on favorite here if she had shipped across the pond.  Check her out in the post parade, but if she looks good she’s probably the only number you need to cover.

Kip Deville is the best U.S. turf mile runner in my opinion, so if something happens to Goldikova (which is possible), he’d make the most sense in my mind.  Oh yeah, he also won this race last year, so don’t sell him short.  He wasn’t favored last year either, and has won 2 of 3 races since.  His last effort may cause some folks to jump ship, but note that it came over a yielding turf at Woodbine that he obviously didn’t enjoy.  Expect a rebound and a much bigger performance today.

Daytona and Whatsthescript are horses that I really like, I’m just worried about each.  I’m concerned that Whatsthescript is up against it breaking from the outside as he’ll have to find a way to save as much ground as he can in the 1st turn.  Daytona is a Grade 1 winner, but hasn’t been able to defeat Whatsthescript in 2 recent tries.  I suppose he could turn the corners if Whatsthescript falters due to the aforementioned reason, so he may be worth taking a shot if you want a price.

For the ultimate upset, though I don’t think it’s going to happen, you could try Precious Kitten at 8/1.  She’s probably in over her head here, but if she did pull it off it would be fun to be a part of it.

 

Race 5: The Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ($2,000,000)

  • #4 Square Eddie (9/2)
  • #12 Bushranger (6/1)
  • #1 Munnings (7.2*)
  • #11 Midshipman (5/1)
  • #8 Street Hero (6/1)
  • #13 Minethatbird (30/1)

The Juvenile looks a little more wide open than it did to me on first glance.  I’m still backing Square Eddie  in the hopes that he can move forward off of his victory in the  Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity on October 4. “Baby Curlin” would help keep a good thing going since Zenyatta and Zenyatta Jr. (Stardom Bound) won yesterday on Ladies’ Day.  How cool would it be if Curlin and Baby Curlin brought things home today?  He’ll have a chance. 

Bushranger is a horseI essentially missed in my handicapping at the beginning of the week.  He’s a good sprinter from overseas that could run away with this thing if he takes to the track.  Word on TVG was that he’d looked pretty good, and 6/1 is a good price all things being considered.

Munnings is the East Coast top 2-year-old.  Usually the eastern horses don’t ship as well going west as good as the California horses ship east.  That’s just my opinion. Still, this guy has talent and would be hard to leave out of contention.

Midshipman and Street Hero  each look like they’ll have a chance, but if you want to go busting the bank take a stab on the 30/1 longshot of the field, Minethatbird.   He’s coming off 4 consecutive victories – and it’s not like he can’t run on synthetics.  You could do a lot worse at 30/1.

 

 

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf ($1,000,000)

  • #12 Grand Adventure (5/1)
  • #11 Bittel Road (7/2*)
  • #7 Coronet of a Baron (9/2)
  • #3 Westphalia (5/1)
  • #4 Donativum (6/1)
  • #10 Skipadate (6/1)

It looks to me that you’ve got to go deep here in the exotics as I don’t see a standout.  Grand Adventure is my top choice, but Bittel Road does deserve the morning line favoritism.  The horse that perplexed me originally was Coronet of a Baron, but the folks at TVG insisted during “the works” that he has looked sensational since arriving at Santa Anita.   I have trouble separating Westphalia, Donativum (who struck me as a cool customer when they showed him on TVG), and Skipadate.  Good luck on this one.

 

 

Race 7: The Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint ($2,000,000)

  • #2 Street Boss (3/1*)
  • #1 Cost of Freedom (4/1)
  • #3 Fabulous Strike (4/1)
  • #4 Midnight Lute (7/2)
  • #7 In Summation (10/1)

My guy for the Sprint all summer long has been Street Boss, but I remain concerned that he may get caught in traffic or leave himself a bit too much to do turning for home.  Cost of Freedom is the horse that hung on against him last time out in the Ancient Title, so you’ve obviously got to give that one a fair chance here as well.  I do think Street Boss will get the job done, but my confidence has been dulled a bit. 

Midnight Lute is the x-factor.  There are those that think he runs away with this just like he did last year’s Sprint, but there’s obvious reason to be concerned. He’s been on the shelf and his last races don’t look anything like his triumph last year at Monmouth.  If the real Midnight Lute shows up this whole thing is academic, but that still a big “if.”

In Summation is the horse I think could shock everyone.  He may have done so in the Ancient Title if not for some traffic trouble.  He’ll probably be forgotten at the windows so there will be value here.  He’s worth a win flyer in my opinion.  Same for Fabulous Strike if he’s 4th choice on the tote board. 

 

Race 8: The Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Turf ($3,000,000)

  • #4 Soldier of Fortune (7/2*)
  • #2 Red Rocks (5/1)
  • #10 Out of Control (10/1)
  • #9 Conduit (6/1)
  • #11 Eagle Mountain (6/1)

The Breeders’ Cup Turf seems to be all about Soldier of Fortune.  A legitimate Group 1 turf runner, he has banged heads with the likes of Youmzain, Zarkava, and Dylan Thomas.  If he takes to the firm turf at Santa Anita and the heat doesn’t get to him, he should be able to defeat this field.  However, if those things don’t happen, there will be value underneath, and most likely inflated value as you’re not likely to get anything like 7/2 on Soldier of Fortune.

Red Rocks is my next choice due in large part to his defeat of Curlin in the Man O’ War.  I think that was a deceptively good turf race since it also featured Better Talk Now, Out of Control, and Grand Coturier (who are also in this race today).  Red Rocks made ‘em all look silly in that one, and despite the fact he’s been off for a while, should be able to get back on top.  He’s got the European breeding that is always important and he’s thrived in U.S. turf racing. 

Out of Control is a longshot that a lot of folks are whispering about.  Yet another from that Man O’ War against Curlin and Red Rocks.  He posted a 112 Beyer Speed Figure chasing Red Giant last out in the Hirsch.  Another effort like that and he’s a player in here for sure.

Eagle Mountain and Conduit are likely to be higher than 6/1 on the board in my opinion, so they are my “bomber” picks.  And it goes without saying I’ll have something sentimental on Better Talk Now as I’ve loved “Blackie” for years.

 

Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Classic ($5,000,000)

  • #9 Curlin (7/5*)
  • #1 Go  Between (8/1)
  • #8 Raven’s Pass (6/1)
  • #5 Henrythenavigator (10/1)

Since it’s likely my last chance to bet Curlin – I’ll be all aboard on him in the exotics.  Yes, I think it’s possible he gets beat today.  Obviously it’ll be the surface if he goes down.  I think he was good enough on the turf to expect him to run solid over the Pro-Ride, but I’m not thinking it will be his best effort.  This is a tough, tough field to crack, but if anyone can do it, it’s him. 

Go Between is the horse for the course I’d make 2nd choice.  He also looked a million bucks from what I saw on “the works” on TVG.

Raven’s Pass is the most interesting of the Euros in my opinion.  Raven should be able to get the extra 1/4 mile today in the Classic with no problems.

Tough call between Henry and The Duke – but I liked what I saw of Henrythenavigator during the weekly workouts a bit more.

 

Best of luck to all – Happy Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday!!!


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Curlin, Daytona, Go Between, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Precious Kitten, Pyro, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Street Boss

It’s Travers Time

22 08 2008

This Saturday’s 139th running of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Track looks like it may be the best 3-year-old race of the year.  Certainly it’s the most competitive from top to bottom since the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. We may not have Big Brown, but we’ve got a full field of 12 contenders and what looks like a great betting race.

The field for the 1 1/4 miles G1 Travers:

  1. Tale of Ekati  (E. Prado) 20/1
  2. Colonel John (G. Gomez) 8/1
  3. Da’ Tara (A. Garcia) 8/1
  4. Tizbig (C. Velasquez) 30/1
  5. Macho Again (J. Leparoux) 6/1
  6. Cool Coal Man (J. Velazquez) 15/1
  7. Amped (J. Chavez) 30/1
  8. Harlem Rocker (E. Coa) 4/1
  9. Mambo in Seattle (R. Albarado) 5/1
  10.  Tres Borrachos (T.Baze) 15/1
  11.  Pyro (S.Bridgmohan) 7/2*
  12.  Court Vision (K. Desormeaux) 12/1

Let’s start with a feel for how the pace sets up.  Looking at the race on paper we appear to have the makings of a speed duel between Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara and Tizbig. In other words a showdown could be brewing between a pair of Tiznow colts, who are known for having quite a bit of fight in them.  Add to that the fact that the two are posted eyeball to eyeball in the 3 and 4 holes, respectively, and it looks like we’ve got a battle on our hands up front early on.  I’ll be honest, I’m not sure which one is quicker.  Da’ Tara would appear to need the lead a bit more, but Tizbig is stepping up in class and will likely need to be fairly quick out of the gate. 

This should set things up for one of the runners coming off the pace. The question is who might get too close if a speed duel occurs and who might find themselves having some late traffic trouble?  Pyro is favored at 7/2, but I’m betting that won’t be the case at post time.  The two horses everyone is talking about are Todd Pletcher’s Harlem Rocker and the Neil Howard trained Mambo in Seattle.  I’d tend to agree that they look like the pair to beat on paper.

We’ll start with Harlem Rocker.  He graces the cover of the Saturday Daily Racing Form.  The impressive son of Macho Uno has run up a 4 for 5 lifetime record on his way to $445,000 in earnings.   The win that sticks out is the Grade 3 Withers where he defeated J Be K by 2 1/2 lengths and earned a 106 Beyer figure.  However, the race that most horseplayers are focusing on is his last effort.  While the 90 Beyer speed figure in the Prince of Wales may not seem like a winner on paper, it’s important to note that Harlem Rocker fought back in the stretch and refused to go down in defeat.  That’s big.  He strikes me as a colt with a lot of upside that we probably haven’t seen the best from.

Mambo in Seattle is a fast improving son of Kingmambo who will be piloted by Robby Albarado.  I know a lot of people are picking this guy and I can see why.  Let me just make the argument though that despite the sexy improving Beyer figures, that this is a horse “classing up”, potentially quite a bit.  This of course despite the fact that I don’t think this year’s 3-year-old crop was on par with those of recent memory.  Collectively I think this field will give him all he can handle, and he’s going to have to earn it if he’s to prevail. 

Pyro is a shaky favorite in my opinion.  Don’t get me wrong.  I love the guy.  He was one of my favorites leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and I thought the Jim Dandy was a lock for him. Unfortunately he was upset by Macho Again, who will 6 lanes to his inside at the start of the race.  I’d look for a better performance from Pyro.  This is a battle tested member of this field, from his races against 2-year-old champion War Pass as a juvenile to his victories in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Northern Dancer.   I think he’ll turn the tables on Macho Again today, but I’m a bit worried drawing the outside might leave him ducking in to save ground early on and then encountering some traffic problems if/when the field starts coming back to him.  He’s a player and he can win this thing with a solid run, but I’ll pass on the morning line favoritism and go with Harlem Rocker for the win.

As for the rest of the field, yeah…I guess I’ve got to own up to it everytime this guy runs.  Fine – I was a Colonel John guy going into the Derby. There, I’ve said it.  In my defense I had Big Brown ranked #1 from the Florida Derby on, but that matters not when you give out the Colonel as your Derby pick.  I still like him, just not here and not on dirt.  I’d love to see him thunder home on top, but I’m not seeing it. 

Macho Again looks quite playable underneath at 6/1.   When you consider he’s been 2nd to Big Brown and has defeated Pyro, it’s hard not to like the “other” son of Macho Uno in the field today.  If you scratch a line through his Belmont run (you’d do it for Big Brown, right?) then his Derby Trial, Preakness, and Jim Dandy runs look pretty darn good against this field.  I have a feeling he’ll be right there in the thick of things in what should be a great finish to the Travers. 

I’ll paly Harlem Rocker for the win over Pyro and Mambo in Seattle for place.  To fill out the trifecta I’ll add in Macho Again for show.  I’m also going to toss in Cool Coal Man who may get a nice, if uninspiring trip.  He’s got a habit of sticking around if you toss out the obvious scratch in the Derby and a synthetics debacle in the Blue Grass.

8/9, 11/5, 6, 9, 11 ($6)

Unless of course one of you convinces me to go in another direction.


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Categories : Colonel John, Handicapping Selections, Pyro, Saratoga

Curlin’s 2008 U.S. debut headlines Saturday Churchill card

14 06 2008

The Saturday racing card at Churchill Downs marks the 2008 U.S. debut of defending Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  The last time Curlin raced at Churchill downs he was a green 3-year-old that battled through a horrific trip to finish 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.  The son of Smart Strike used that effort, where jockey Robby Albarado said he “became a man” in the stretch, to move forward in what became his coming out party during the Preakness two weeks later.  The rest, as they say, is history as the colt has gone on to prove his dominance as the top U.S. dirt horse, as well as a force to be reckoned with on the international circuit with his resounding 7 length win in the prestigious Dubai World Cup in March.

A very strong undercard features 5 additional stakes races in what features to be an excellent day of thoroughbred racing. Let’s take a look at the stakes races, beginning with the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis Handicap in race 6, and running all the way through the Grade 3 Mint Julep in race 11. No doubt bettors will be focusing their action on these races in the pick 4 and pick 6 wagering. 

Race 6:  The Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2) – 1 1/8 miles.

  • #5 Hystericalady (4/5*)
  • #2 Peach Flambe (3/1)
  • #1 Aspiring (12/1)

#5 Hystericalady headlines the field and for good reason. She’s a grade 1 winner and has battled with the likes of Ginger Punch and Nashoba’s Key.  I think there’s enough speed in here today that she could sit a comfortable race just off the early pace and look to make her move in the stretch – where she should prove the best horse.  It’s going to take the best race of someone else’s life to get past her. #2 Peach Flambe would appear to be a contender based on speed figures alone.  I’m just not sure she’s good enough to seriously threaten Hystericalady.  She did run 2nd to Ginger Punch in the Sunshine Millions Distaff, but she was beaten handily by over 6 lengths. Hystericalady, on the other hand, gave Ginger Punch all she could handle in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff last fall.  #1 Aspiring is a horse I’ve got to use based on name alone, but besides that there’s really not much to like. 

Race 7: The Regret (G3) – 1 1/8 miles (turf)

  • #4 Pure Clan (7/5*)
  • #6 Magical Theater (10/1)
  • #3 Zee Zee (3/1)

#4 Pure Clan is 4 for 7 lifetime, with a pair of respectable losses to the late Eight Belles and another solid effort against Proud Spell last out.  She won’t find anyone of that caliber here today. The pace won’t exactly be ideal, but she should be able to sit a comfortable trip and make her move in the stretch to prevail. #6 Magical Theater exits back to back victories and although she’s only raced at the maiden and conditional allowance levels and steps up into stakes company today, she has beaten some return winners.  The daughter of Smart Strike has every reason to move forward today.  #3 Zee Zee has solid turf form and cannot be totally dismissed here. She’s had trouble classing up in the past, but has the ever useful third start off a layoff angle going for her as well.

Race 8: The Northern Dancer (G3) – 1 1/16 miles

  • #1 Recapturetheglory (3/1)
  • #2 Pyro (7/5*)
  • #6 Visionaire (5/1)

We’ve got plenty of familiar names to those who followed the 3-year-old campaign this year leading up to the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  All 3 of the runners exiting the Derby wound up in my selections today.  #1 Recapturetheglory will be on the lead from the 1 hole and look to wire this field.  There doesn’t appear to be any serious pace pressure here unless #5 My Pal Charlie decides to go after him, which may well happen since ‘Charlie’s best bet to hit the board is to be as forwardly placed as possible early on.  #2 Pyro was my top ranked 3-year-old until Big Brown arrived on the scene.  Since then things have gone wrong, and he must look to prove that the synthetic try in the Blue Grass and the bad start to the Derby warrant drawing lines through them.  If the colt that ran in the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star shows up – he should be coming late to threaten for the score.  #6 Visionaire was progressing nicely until the same combo of races that Pyro ran into.  I’m thinking he’ll be in a nice stalking position turning for home here and if anyone can get to Recapturetheglory and My Pal Charlie, he should have a good shot.  Obviously I feel that #5 My Pal Charlie was hard to leave off as his name keeps popping up in this analysis.  #7 Texas WIldcatter also warrants consideration underneath.

Race 9:  The Jefferson Cup (G2) – 1 1/8 miles (turf)

  • #4 Tizdejavu (3/1*)
  • #7 Bobby Blue Eyes (6/1)
  • #3 Wicked Style (5/1)

Arguably the most difficult of the stakes races on the card to handicap. #4 Tizdejavu has yet to run a bad race in his career.  He prevailed by a nose at the G3 level last out and has been working beautifully in the interim.  He’s also a Tiznow colt, andI tend to have a fondness for them.  #7 Bobby Blue Eyes absolutely freaked last time out when hitting the grass for the first time to break his maiden by 10 lengths.  The competition gets deeper, and you always have to worry about a bounce off such a performance, but perhaps this one just really is that much better on the grass?  I’ll take my chances at decent odds.  #3 Wicked Style was a G1 winner before having a rough time in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  I’m willing to think he needed that last race on 5/21 after a long layoff and will look for a better effort here.  I think another number you’ve got to consider in the multi-race wagers is #8 Go West Bert.  True, his freak move last out was in an off-the-turf race in the slop, but his form was solid on the grass prior to that.

Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 miles

  • #1 Curlin (3/5*)
  • #9 Barcola (20/1)
  • #4 Einstein (5/1)

The feature race of the day – and Curlin’s 2008 U.S. debut.  It’s been a long time since we last saw Curlin thrashing the world’s finest in the World Cup.  Even longer since we saw him romp in the slop at Monmouth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic.  If the horse we all know and love shows up – fahgetaboutit.  If he happens to have some Dubai rust on him, or is a bit too eager off the layoff and gets used up early and tires – then perhaps #9 Barcola has a shot to wire the field in a fashion similar to what Da’ Tara did last weekend (I know, I know – enough with the references to the Belmont). #4 Einstein looks playable to me, but you’ve got to hope he can be something close to what he usually is on grass. #5 Grasshopper could also be in the mix here today, andwill likely find a way into the money – but unless he brings his best I don’t see him hitting the wire in front.  Get ‘em Curlin – win this one and you’re within reach of Cigar’s all-time earnings.

Race 11: The Early Times Mint Julep (G3) – 1 1/16 miles (turf)

  • #3 Dreaming of Anna (1/1*)
  • #8 Kiss With a Twist (15/1)
  • #11 Ciao (6/1)

#1 Dreaming of Anna is the class of the field and has a legitimate shot to take them gate-to-wire in the closer. If she can prevail she’ll boost her lifetime earnings closer to the $2 million mark.  Her workout tab sure looks like she’s on her A-game. #8 Kiss With a Twist may be a surprise to hit the board.  Note a couple of things.  She’s a 4 year old daughter of Lemon Drop Kid and she seems to love the Churchill grass. She could surprise and move forward today. #11 Ciao also does some of her best running at Churchill on the grass and while thrashed by Dreaming of Anna in the Pucker Up (G3), she has matched class with Bit of Whimsy in the Mrs. Revere.  I’d also think of using #6 Street Sounds here as on her best she can hit the board. 

Best of luck to all, and as always be sure to check for late changes/scratches. 

Good luck Curlin – make us proud!

 


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Curlin, Grasshopper, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Pyro, Texas Wildcatter, Visionaire

Derby Selections – It’s Time to Pick a Winner

2 05 2008

It’s hard to believe that in just 24 hours we’ll be gearing up for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Derby day is a special day for horse racing fans around the country, and the single day on the calendar where our sport takes center stage nationally.

I’ve blogged earlier in the week about the inherent difficulties of picking a Derby winner from a field of 20.  It’s a tough, thankless job (except for the winning wagers, of course) that more often than not leaves you looking foolish publicly.  Even the great Steven Crist, the nation’s premier pick 6 player and the chairman and publisher of the Daily Racing Form, went winless from 1992 to 2006 before correctly selecting Street Sense in the 2007.

As difficult as it may be, it’s time to step up to the plate and make some selections here.  I’ll caveat these selections by stating that I tend to go a little crazy in the Derby and play multiple tickets.  In other words, I won’t be restricting myself to only what I type here.  Roughly 5 minutes before post time I’ll likely be feverishly entering a slew of trifecta combos.  You only live once, right?  

Let’s take one last look at the field, with jockey and morning line odds information:

  1. Cool Coal Man (Julien Leparoux) – 30/1
  2. Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa) - 15/1
  3. Anak Nakal (Rafael Bejarano) – 30/1
  4. Court Vision (Garrett Gomez) - 20/1
  5. Eight Belles (Gabriel Saez) – 20/1
  6. Z Fortune (Robbie Albarado) – 15/1
  7. Big Truck (J. Castellano) – 50/1
  8. Visionaire (Jose Lezcano) – 20/1
  9. Pyro (Sean Bridgmohan) – 6/1
  10. Colonel John (Corey Nakatani) – 4/1
  11. Z Humor (Rene Douglas) – 30/1
  12. Smooth Air (M.R. Cruz) – 20/1
  13. Bob Black Jack (Richard Migliore) – 20/1
  14. Monba (Ramon Dominguez) – 15/1
  15. Adriano (Edgar Prado) – 30/1
  16. Denis of Cork (Calvin Borel) – 20/1
  17. Cowboy Cal (J.R. Velasquez) – 20/1
  18. Recpaturetheglory (E.T. Baird) – 20/1
  19. Gayego(M.E. Smith) – 15/1
  20. Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux) – 3/1*

Let’s begin by dispensing with the obvious.  Big Brown is the best horse in this race.  I think that’s pretty clear and in my mind is beyond debate.  To win the Derby, someone’s going to have to defeat him and that will be no small challenge.  I don’t really buy into the “knocks” against him.  I think his feet are fine (despite the front bandages you’ll see on display on Saturday).  I don’t mind that he’s “lightly raced” (Curlin, anyone?), or that he hasn’t faced the toughest of fields.  I think we’ve seen his talent showcased and there simply isn’t another horse in the field that is on equal skill level as Dutrow’s colt.  

The main competitors that have a real shot at upsetting Big Brown are: Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego, Eight Belles, Monba, and Z Fortune.   I don’t really think anyone else in this race can be considered a win candidate.  Obviously I can’t play all of these guys and  Big Brown, so let’s see if we can take a stand somewhere.

Right out of the gate, I’m of the opinion that Big Brown will actually rocket for the lead, then try to cut over and save as much ground as he can heading for the first turn. While the 20 hole does mean he’ll be wide, it also assures him of a clean start and a chance to kick into high gear as soon as he desires.  

The trouble for Big Brown right out of the gate is that potential speed duelers Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory are to his inside, along with the quick Gayego.  Big Brown will have to clear them in order to collapse as much ground as he’d like to.  Most likely, some combo of this grouping will get to the lead and then start angling inwards. 

The next challenge for Big Brown will be the speedy Bob Black Jack breaking from the 13 hole.  If he gets a good start, we could wind up with a pace setting duel that could tax the leaders and open things up for the off-the-pacers and closers.  Big Brown should be good enough to get past Bob Black Jack, or he may decide to let Bob Black Jack have the lead (I think that would be wiser….why fight him for the lead when you don’t need to?).

If this goes as planned than Big Brown should be in a decidedly nice position to make one move and sprint away to win by a decent margin on Saturday.  That being said, this is a lot to ask from any horse, let alone a lightly raced 3 year old breaking from the extreme outside, hence the reason he won’t be my top choice.   Do I think he can win?  Absolutely, no question about it.  Do I think he should win?  That’s where the picture gets a bit fuzzier.

If (and this may be a big “if” when all is said and done), Big Brown were to get hung wide, or encounter a speed duel, or god forbid something wrong were to happen – just who would the race setup for?   Gayego could be close behind Big Brown, but I’m having trouble envisioning him getting the extra furlong comfortably from so wide.  Eight Belles could be in a nice position from the inside of the pack, but she has a tendency to not break well and from the comments on her recent workouts was observed to be “lugging in” towards the rail.  That could spell problems for her. 

I think we’d have to look a bit deeper to the guys who should be putting in their runs as the field turns for home.  It’s all going to come down to position, but two horses we know can fight through traffic are Colonel John and Pyro.  Neither is as fast as Big Brown, but this is horse racing and the race doesn’t always go to the fastest horse of the field.  They’ll need some burnout happening in front of them, but they may get just that.   Of these two, while I’ve said for weeks that I don’t take anything away from Pyro just because of his dismal Bluegrass effort, I do prefer Colonel John.  In fact, I’m anointing Colonel John as my official Derby selection. 

Please don’t mistake that last sentence as meaning that I’m foolish enough to think Big Brown won’t win.  He probably will.  I’m just not the type of guy that can take the favorite in the Derby unless there’s no reason I can support anyone else.  The 20 hole and the speed to his inside is enough for me to go with Colonel John, but you’d best believe there will be some tickets on Big Brown as well.  He’s just too good to totally pass up.  I made the mistake of picking against him in the Florida Derby, and I’ll be darned if he’s going to burn me twice, even if he is my “2nd choice.”

Colonel John has that fight in him that all the Tiznow colts seem to show.  I know he hasn’t been over the dirt yet, but he started to look like he really took to it as the week wore on.  He’s bred for this type of race and has to be considered a player.  I’m worried that his odds may come down a bit too much due to his post position compared with Big Brown’s, but there’s nothing I can do about that as I type this over 24 hours in advance of the race.  I think he may actually run his best race over dirt, despite how accomplished he has been over the synthetics.  Also, while I definitely concede that he’s not as quick as some of the others, I’m not of the opinion that we can compare the Beyer figures of Santa Anita to other tracks this year as easily as we might assume.  True, that track seemed to play to his running style, but as the meet wore on it also tended to reduce speed figures. 

The other horses I really like here are Pyro, Monba, Z Fortune, and Eight Belles.  Court Vision could be sitting on his best race with the addition of blinkers, but I still don’t think he’s a real win candidate.  My wife is playing Z Fortune all the way – and actually boxing him up with Pyro for an Asmussen exacta.   Boy, can you tell the kind of cumulative effect Curlin has had on my household? 

Gayego is the horse I wanted to pick.  I dreamt about him winning when I was in California a few weeks ago.  I loved the way he transitioned to dirt in the Arkansas Derby and think he has a bright future ahead of him.  I’m not incredibly fond of the extra furlong on Saturday or the post position in the 19 hole.  It pains me to do so, but I’m passing on him as a win candidate.  I’ll have a casual bet on him “just in case” - but I won’t be giving him out as a winner here. 

The main trifecta I’ll play is a bit deeper than I usually advise, which is only to be expected with such a large field.  I’ll use both Big Brown and Colonel John for the win.  I’ll add in Pyro and Z Fortune for place, and will then add Eight Belles, Court Vision, and Monba for show.  Total cost $30.

10, 20 with 6, 9, 10, 20 with 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 20

Best of luck to all of you.  Here’s hoping we get a Derby to remember.  It would be great to see Big Brown go for a Triple Crown.  Can’t say I’d be disappointed to see any of the other horses mentioned here win (Pyro, Gayego, Colonel John, Monba, Z Fortune, or Eight Belles). 


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Categories : Big Brown, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Monba, Pyro, Z Fortune

Post Positions and Odds Set for the Kentucky Derby

30 04 2008

The field is set.  The post positions have been drawn. Even the morning line odds have been established for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  All that’s left to do now is pick a winner, lay the bets, and wait for the gates to open.

I’m not going to officially make a pick here now – as I’ve still got several days to mull things over.   I think most of you are already familiar with the horses I think most highly of.  I’ll do one final ranking of the contenders on Friday along with my picks.  For now, let’s take a look at the field.  

  1.  Cool Coal Man (20/1)
  2.  Tale of Ekati (15/1)
  3.  Anak Nakal (30/1)
  4.  Court Vision (20/1)
  5.  Eight Belles (20/1)
  6.  Z Fortune (15/1)
  7.  Big Truck (50/1)
  8.  Visionaire (20/1)
  9.  Pyro (6/1)
  10.  Colonel John (4/1)
  11.  Z Humor (30/1)
  12.  Smooth Air (20/1)
  13.  Bob Black Jack (20/1)
  14.  Monba (15/1)
  15.  Adriano (30/1)
  16.  Denis of Cork (20/1)
  17.  Cowboy Cal (20/1)
  18.  Recapturetheglory (20/1)
  19.  Gayego (15/1)
  20.  Big Brown (3/1*)

First things first.  The likely favorite, Big Brown, has drawn the extreme outside post position of #20.  No horse has ever won the Derby from the 20 hole, so he’ll have to make history if he is to prevail.  I like Big Brown a lot and think he’s a worthy favorite, but will the 20 hole be too much to overcome?

All of the speed in the race (Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, even Gayego to a certain extent) appears to be to the outside.  Not only that, but they are all closely bunched together.  Bob Black Jack is breaking from the 13 hole – not too far away.  Might this lead to a bit hotter of a pace than many have been expecting? 

Looking over the odds, it appears that Gayego and Eight Belles got a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” treatment.  Gayego is at 15/1, while the filly Eight Belles is listed at 20/1.  Personally, I’ll take those odds all day long on those horses. 

Pyro is at 6/1, despite numerous impressive dirt tries, while Colonel John, who has yet to race over the surface, is at lower odds of 4/1.  Z Fortune, Monba, and Tale of Ekati join Gayego as not having received a shred of respect at 15/1. 

I’m just going to come out and say this now. I’m not a fan of Big Brown being right next to the likely speed contenders in the 20 hole.  Picking against him in the Florida Derby when he was in the 12 hole turned out to be a bad play by me a month ago.  I know I’m possibly guilty of making the same mistake, but I’m not thinking that I’ll accept the favorite at such a short price (although to be honest, 3/1 really isn’t that bad for a colt with the talent of Big Brown) breaking from such an extreme outside position in the Derby.   There looks to be value elsewhere.

I like the middle-of-the field post positions for Visionaire (8), Pyro (9), and Colonel John (10) especially.  I think these horses got really good draws that can set them up for nice runs on Saturday.  I’m not going to back any of them for the win purely based on post position though and am only noting that this will factor into the equation at some level.  The middle of the pack just looks like the sweet spot, doesn’t it?

We’ve got a bevy of seasoned and well established readers that visit here often, and I’d like to hear your opinions on the post positions and odds. Who do you guys see as having a beneficial post?  What do you make of Big Brown and the speed breaking from the outside?  Does anyone’s odds make you giddy at the prospect of a big payout? 


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Categories : Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, Z Fortune, Z Humor

Tuesday Morning Derby Updates

28 04 2008

Here’s the latest and greatest as the buildup to Saturday’s running of the Kentucky Derby continues to gain momentum:

  • Behindatthebar, Todd Pletcher’s most recent Derby qualifier, will skip the Kentucky Derby and instead point to the Preakness on May 17.  Word is that they didn’t want to push the colt with his 3rd race in 5 weeks.  Pletcher will do battle with Monba and Cowboy Cal instead.
  • Denis of Cork is now IN due to the above defection.  The Southwest Stakes winner who was last seen disappointing in the Illinois Derby has been working well lately, including a 4 furlong workout in 47.76 on Sunday.  Even better news for the colt is that the winning jockey from last year, Calvin Borel, has signed on for the mount.
  • Big Truck put in a 5 furlong workout in 59.25 on Monday at Churchill Downs, which was fastest for that distance among 22 horses timed at that distance.  Trainer Barclay Tagg has got two shots in the Derby with Big Truck and Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati.
  • Visionaire breezed a half mile in 48.40 on Monday.  Michael Matz and company are looking for their 2nd Derby winner in 3 years after the great Barbaro won in 2006. It should be noted that Visionaire’s time was slightly better than Bob Black Jack (48.60), Pyro (49.80), and Z Fortune (51.00). 
  • Speaking of Bob Black Jack, the lightning quick colt turned in his 48.60 four furlong workout on Monday, then proceeded to gallop out to 5 furlongs in 1:02.  Don’t count this guy out.  He was right there with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby, and prior to that had duked it out with Gayego and Georgie Boy in the San Felipe.  I doubt he can win, but he might have a say in the outcome. 
  • Steve Asmussen gave the final polish to both of his colts – Pyro and Z Fortune.  Pyro went 4 furlongs in 49.80 and breezed out to 5 furlongs in 1:03.40.  They were a bit easier with Z Fortune as they are worried that pressing him too hard on the heels of his effort against Gayego in the Arkansas Derby might take too much out of him.  The colt worked 4 furlongs in a relatively pedestrian 51.00 on Monday. 
  • The mighty Curlin was seen on the track at Chruchill in the early morning hours of Monday.  He was really just out to get loose and get back into the habit of working out after shipping home in triumph as the world champion following his victory in the Dubai World Cup.  Asmussen says it might be a month or so before we get an idea what the plan is for the 2nd half of Curlin’s 4 year old campaign. 

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Categories : Big Truck, Churchill Downs, Curlin, Gayego, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, Z Fortune

The handicapper’s pitfall – picking a Derby horse

23 04 2008

Every year we go through this ritual.  Twenty or so of the finest 3 year olds in the nation gather for the prestigious running of the Kentucky Derby, and all of us handicappers rush out to make our selections and identify “our horse” that we will back and support for the race.

When we pick right, we look like geniuses.  When wrong, we look like buffoons.  More often then not, we do pick wrong.  It’s only logical that with a 1 in 20 shot in such fields that you’re bound to wind up on more wrong picks than right.  Those few occasions  where you do pick the right horse publicly become moments in time that are impossible to forget and fill our hearts with a sense of satisfaction and pride.

I’m a guy that lives and dies a bit too much on pride.  I’ve got many friends that will ask me casually about horse racing as the Derby approaches, and nearly all want to know “who’s going to win?”  Trying to make them understand that the best you can do is reduce the field to likely contenders and then pick from there seems to meet with looks of disbelief.  Attempts to rationalize the difficulty involved reach some, but not all. 

As an avid football fan, I challenge folks that most fans aren’t able to correctly predict the Super Bowl winner – even when it’s reduced down to just two teams.  I mean c’mon – you’ve got a 50/50 shot there and most experts can’t even pick that right.  What’s a lowly horseplayer to do when they’re down to a 1 in 20 shot? Case in point would be this past Super Bowl.  While much of the “smart” betting money was indeed on the Giants (due to their ability to “cover the spread” as opposed to the Patriots seeming inability to do so down the stretch), you’d be hard pressed to find folks that could seriously articulate to you “how” the Giants might be able to pull it off.  On paper it seemed a slam dunk.

Imagine then, if you will, how difficult it is to select a single winner from a field of 20 top notched contenders.  Do you go with the best horse overall?  Do you attempt to predict the pace setup of the race and see who “should” benefit the most?  Is your conscience and reasoning affected by a “what have you done for me lately” syndrome, whereby only recent winners register in your mind, and the heroics of February and March seem too distant to recall?  Complicating matters further is that many passionate fans have already started to identify with one horse or another.  This is fantastic from a fan standpoint, as nothing brings more joy than being able to cheer your heart out for a particular horse (much like my fetish/infatuation/obsession/however you choose to classify it with Curlin), but betting with your heart can be a recipe for disaster, as all too many horseplayers know all too well.

So what am I rambling about this for now?  Well, it’s that time of year and I’m being asked by many people who “my horse” is.  The sad truth is that I don’t really have a single horse.  I’m actually stuck between 4 horses that I’m convinced the winner will come from, barring some horrible post position scenario.

The 4 I’m stuck on would be Big Brown, Gayego, Pyro, and Colonel John.  These just seem to be the best 4 in my opinion, and I must confess that I’d be shocked if the winner was someone else.  That being said, you can’t go out and publicly predict 4 winners of a single race – and therein lies the trap.  How, once reduced to 4, can you attempt to separate further without inviting disaster?Tread carefully, ye of little resolve.  For the path to horseplayer glory is littered with the carcasses of those who have tried in vein before you.  Personally I can draw little confidence from my own track record.  I bet against Street Sense last year.  I was a Bandini fan a few years back.  It gets even more embarrassing (trust me) the further back you go.

The answer for the moment is that you simply can’t pick a horse yet.  It’s still too early.  The field hasn’t been finalized.  We’ve got several workouts pending, and of course there’s the dreaded post position draw.  I’m still of the opinion that drawing the 2 hole last year destroyed any chance my beloved Curlin had of winning.  I love how the announcers on ESPN will still reference his 3rd place finish in a field of 20 and say confidently that it “proves” that a green horse is a risk in the Derby.  Fiddlesticks, I say.   Sure experience matters, but the game seems to be changing and they don’t run these colts as often as they used to.  I just don’t think you can toss a talent like Curlin last year, or Big Brown this year on grounds of inexperience alone.  As I say that, realize that in watching Curlin’s Preakness run last year, I do think he still looked “green” at times.  I remember thinking then “if that horse ever puts it all together – watch out!!”

What this means to me is that Big Brown has to be considered a serious favorite here.  His win in the Florida Derby looks to me like it would’ve left everyone else running for place and show, no matter who else had been in the field.  Of course, we won’t be betting on the Florida Derby come May 3, so it’s still possible that a pace duel or the aforementioned post position draw could spell doom for the highly touted colt.  I just think he is “the best” of the field and deserves to be the favorite.

Looking at the other contenders on my short list, I’m a guy that is probably a bit biased in favor of the California horses.  No doubt this is due to the fact that I wager so frequently on Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, and Del Mar, and as such have a much stronger feeling of familiarity with the west coast colts.  All year long I’ve had to defend my rankings of Colonel John, Gayego, even El Gato Malo at times (who yes, I admit, I was too high on).  Maybe I’m letting this familiarity cloud my judgement, but I’ve been impressed with Colonel John and Gayego each time they’ve stepped on the track.  I just can’t discount them.   Gayego is always involved in the outcome, and Colonel John has so much fight and determination in his heart that It’s almost impossible not to cheer for him.  I’ve even confessed in earlier comments that I’ve been swayed a bit recently by a dream I had following a flight to Los Angeles last week, in which I saw Gayego surge to the front and take the race.  Me? Superstitious? Say it ain’t so, Kev…..say it ain’t so!  :)

Pyro is another I just don’t think we can toss.  He had a bit of a strange workout this week with ominous signs for those that look for such things.  It was shrouded in fog and trainer Steve Asmussen was unable to judge just how fast he had actually worked. All this will likely add to the mystery of the colt that not long ago was thought to be the consensus favorite heading into Derby weekend.  Has he really fallen that far?  I for one am not even considering his Blue Grass effort, which was dismal.   There’s a laundry list of horses that for whatever reason didn’t fire at Keeneland this year – including Pyro, Proud Spell, Country Star, and Panty Raid (coincidentally, and invoking my juvenile sense of humor – is that not one of the best names for a horse you’ve ever heard?).  My heart tells me that we’ve got to chalk it up to the surface.  Am I concerned?  Of course I am, but I think we must also remember that his runs in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star were only outdone (and even that is a matter of opinion) by Big Brown in the Florida Derby.  Might we really get a colt with such credentials as the third of fourth betting option in the Derby?  It’s possible.  Maybe not likely, but possible, and obviously such value would be very attractive to players looking to make a splash.

So where does this leave us?  Well, for the moment, if you’re going to make me commit to a single horse, I suppose it will be Big Brown.  I know, I can already hear it.  I love chalk.  What can I say?  I was simply blown away in the Florida Derby and remember telling myself “don’t be a fool and bet against this guy come Derby day!”  That being said, my heart pick would Gayego, and my gut is telling me not to count out the Colonel or Pyro.

So many choices, so little time.  With less than two weeks to go in the Derby, I’m curious who many of you are backing.  One horse per person – let’s hear your Derby picks now, with the caveat that you may reserve the right to change them once the field and post positions are set.   So who ya takin?


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Categories : Big Brown, Colonel John, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pyro

Updated Derby Rankings

20 04 2008

This week brought more shakeups to the list.  War Pass is officially off the Derby trail with an injury.  Speculation is swirling that top fillies Eight Belles and Proud Spell may enter into the Derby field.  I’m waiting for an official announcement before I rank them, but needless to say they’d make an instant impact.

Behindatthebar took the Coolmore Lexington to give Todd Pletcher, who just a few weeks ago was on the verge of being shut out of the Kentucky Derby, 3 entries in the run for the roses.  The field is really starting to take shape.  I won’t make an official “pick” until post positions are drawn and we get a chance to see a few more workouts.  Here’s how they stack up in my mind: Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Proud Spell, Pyro, Salute the Sarge, Tale of Ekati, Tomcito, Visionaire, War Pass, Z Fortune, Z Humor

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