Opening weekend at Old Hilltop

17 04 2009

It may not have the luster that it did at it’s zenith, but this weekend I’ll once again be venturing down to my familiar stomping grounds of Pimlico in Baltimore to welcome in the brief racing meet where it all began  (for m at least).   Actually that’s not entirely true, as my love of horse racing was first begun watching steeplechasers at the yearly Fair Hill races in my hometown of Elkton, MD.   “Old Hilltop”, however, is definitely where my love of thoroughbred racing was first born.

The meet couldn’t possibly be opening under less auspicious conditions.  The well documented bankruptcy filing of Magna Entertainment Corporation and the threat of  Maryland exercising eminent domain over the rights to the Preakness  leave much uncertainty in the air.  Who knows?  This may well be the final opening day at Pimlico I’ll have the chance to experience, so despite suffering through an exhausting bought of flu/cold symptoms this week, I’ve decided to soldier on through and show up in person to play along. 

On the national scene, things have quieted down somewhat just before they begin to heat up again in the final push for the Kentucky Derby.   There’s still a great deal of question about who will actually comprise the final field of 20 in the run for the roses.   Square Eddie is tossing his hat back into the ring with an attempt in the Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland.  Obviously I’d love to see the so called “baby Curlin” make a giant move forward, but I’m inclined to be more cautiously optimistic at this point.  He’s been on the shelf for quite some time and it might be asking too much for him to show up in “Derby ready” form this late in the campaign.  Considering my recent inability to pick a winner at Keeneland, the fact that I’m not going to predict a victory for him might be the best thing he has going for him.  I’ll be watching, but I’ll probably pass on the race. 

Speaking of the Derby, it seems that virtually everyone considers the top contenders to be some combination of Quality Road,  I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and perhaps Papa Clem.   “Papa” is really the cut-off point, as he’s seldom mentioned with the top 5, but can’t be that far behind.   I’m getting a feeling that if you want to crack the Derby code and make a huge score come the first Saturday in May, your best bet might be in how you rank the next flight of contenders.   Here were talking about some combination of Musket Man, General Quarters, Hold Me Back,  the potential Dubai invaders (Desert Party and Regal Ransom), and the likes of Chocolate Candy.   I haven’t settled definitively on how to rank these closely matched contenders, but if I had to bet today I’d probably pass for the moment on the invaders and take a hard look at how the General, Musket Man, and Hold Me Back look once they start churning out workouts at Churchill. 

For now though, I”ll be feasting on a steady diet of $5000 conditional claimers, lightly raced maidens, and other lesser celebrated runners as I venture back to the hallowed halls of Pimlico.   There’s this weird feeling I get whenever I’m there lately, like the echo of Curlin’s victory in the ’07 Preakness are still cascading off the walls and around the track.   Hard to believe it’s already been years (plural) since that moment in time.  Where does the time go? 

So, with all this in mind, it’ll be a bit of a departure here at The Aspiring Horseplayer this weekend.  No massive posts containing public picks.  Maybe a whisper here or there  about any Derby gossip popping up.  It’s time to take account of the bankroll and freshen up on the handicapping as we get set for what has the makings of a very exciting Triple Crown season.   You’ve got to love that there is no “sure thing” at this point like we had with Big Brown last year.   This crop looks pretty evenly matched.  Just a few more weeks and all our questions will be answered.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Square Eddie

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Square Eddie highlights a solid Saturday at Santa Anita

16 01 2009

Saturday racing action at Santa Anita features the cover boy for today’s Daily Racing Form, the three-year-old son of Smart Strike named Square Eddie.  Additionally, we’ve got three graded stakes in the late Pick 4 sequence including the Grade 2 Santa Ynez (race 6), the Grade 3 San Rafael (race 7), and the Grade 2 San Fernando (race 8).  We’ll take a look at each as the betting action figures to be fast and furious. 

If you’ve been playing Santa Anita, or casually paying attention from a distance, you know how hard it’s been to pick anything consistently.  Numerous carryovers in the Pick 6 pool illustrate the difficulty horseplayers have faced.  I’ll be honest, I haven’t done so well lately.  It starts to wear on you after a while, as you panic thinking there is a fundamental flaw you have yet to discover in your handicapping, or that some dark storm cloud has set upon you assuring that you will never pick a winner again.  Obviously the latter is nonsense.  Another way to look at things is with some good old fashioned optimism. After all, if you’ve been getting your teeth kicked in for a sustained period of time, you can bank on one surefire thing;  you are DUE with a capital D!

Race 6: The Grade 2 Santa Ynez (7 Furlongs)

  • #1 Candilejas (M. Garcia/J. Mullins) 15/1
  • #2 Nan (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 15/1
  • #4 Spanish Ice (D.R. Flores/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #5 Empressive Lady (M.C. Baze/J. Mullins) 4/1
  • #6 Turtle Creek Babe (V. Espinoza/R. McAnally) 20/1
  • #7 Deeveetee (P. Husbands/M. Casse) 8/1
  • #8 Evita Argentina (G. Gomez/J. Sadler) 5/2
  • #9 Alpha Kitten (T. Baze/J. Sadler) 9/5*

To me the story of the Santa Ynez is the complete lack of pace on paper.  Things weren’t help when Pinkarella was scratched from the race on Thursday.  The lack of pace will likely hinder one of the morning line favorites, Evita Argentina, or she will have to alter her running style and be a bit closer to whatever pace there is.  So far she’s done all of her running from well off the pace. 

Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady look to be the ones to beat today.  They’ve each got a hint of versatility and should be either apart of whatever develops or will be close enough to it to make their presence known.  I’ll tell you that Alpha Kitten comes up with more angles to consider, at least from how I handicapped the race, but my gut tells me Alpha Kitten will enjoy the cut back to 7 furlongs from the 1 1/16 miles she attempted last time in the Hollywood Starlet.

A dark horse worth taking a long look at in the post parade is Deeveetee, who when all is said and done is probably the best candidate for becoming the early pace setter.  Note that 3 races back she dueled for the lead against state bred rivals before fading.  Obviously anyone loose on the lead here could be a serious threat to steal the race.  I still prefer Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady, but I wouldn’t rule Deeveetee out of the mix at all.

Lastly, for your head-scratching angle of the day, note that fringe contender Turtle Creek Babe once defeated the mighty Stardom Bound last July.  Since then things haven’t been pretty, but it’s worth noting that many of the top competitors in this race have been soundly defeated by Stardom Bound.  I’m just sayin’ .

Selections: 9/5/7/8

 

Race 7: The Grade 3 San Rafael (1 Mile)

  • #1 The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canini) 4/1
  • #2 Fiddlers Afleet (M.C. Baze/J. O’Hara) 6/1
  • #3 Brother Keith (G. Gomez/R. Frankel) 5/1
  • #4 Ryehill Dreamer (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 12/1
  • #5 Papa Clem (T. Baze/G.Stute) 8/1
  • #6 Square Eddie (R. Bejarano/D. O’Niell) 8/5*
  • #7 Charlie’s Moment (J. Rosario/W.Solis) 10/1
  • #8 Feisty Suances (D. R. Flores/D. Vienna) 8/1

The San Rafael is probably the race most people are focusing on, and rightfully so.  It’s our first chance to take a look at Square Eddie in 2009, the colt some have referred to as “baby Curlin.”  We should probably temper the expectations that such associations create by remembering that ‘Eddie has yet to break the 90′s from a Beyer standpoint, and is returning from over 2 full months on the shelf.  While his workouts haven’t exactly been scintillating, it is worth remembering that his 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Midshipman over the same course was good enough to defeat this field.  A repeat of that performance likely makes this race academic. 

That being said, there are some very game competitors here that figure to make him earn it and are capable of stealing the race if the favorite shows up a bit rusty.  Let’s start with The Pamplemousse.  The $150,000 purchase for the Julio Canini barn has run 3 very strong races at the maiden special weight level.  He finally popped his cherry last out racking up an 89 Beyer; equal to the figure earned by Square Eddie in the  BC Juvenile.  Beyond that, he really seemed to enjoy the added distance last out going 1 1/16 miles, so today’s mile journey shouldn’t be a concern at all.   This could be any kind of horse and he’s got a legit shot to become one of (if not the) top male 3-year-olds on the circuit.  He’s a real player here.

Moving to the 4 hole, we’ve got the always dangers John Shirreffs (of Zenyatta, Tiago, and Giacomo fame) teaming up once again with his ace, jockey Michael E. Smith, on what appears to be a very interesting Euro-shipper in Ryehill Dreamer.  I’ll be honest, I”m not very good at figuring out how the Euros will run first time out, but memories of invaders like Goldikova and Raven’s Pass are still fresh in my mind, so I think you’ve got to consider him a player as well.  Now take a look deeper into his form.  He’s been facing some decent company, and has run well in all but one race where the comments indicate he was bumped 2 furlongs from home.  Look out – this guy may be live and at a very large price (as evidenced by the 12/1 morning line value).  Want another angle?  Check out that last morning move in his workout line; 4 furlongs over the Hollywood cushion in :47.  I’d say he’s ready to run.

Lastly, you’ve got the Johar offspring Brother Keith for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s obviously stepping up in class big time to jump from maiden to Grade 3, but he seemingly won for fun last out and has also been working well.  If you happen to pick up a copy of the Saturday DRF, make sure you check out Brad Free’s article that makes some interesting points about Johar offspring.  Obviously I’m against plagarism, so I won’t steal any of  his thunder here.  There’s also one other jaw dropping surprise (at least for me) in the same article concerning a horse named Jimmy Two Times, but that’s a story for another time.  Like I said, with the edition still fresh on the newsstand, it would be wrong to say anything more.  Suffice to say it’s an entertaining read and there’s enough in the article to take any Johar offspring seriously.

I still like Square Eddie here, and as I’m a pretty big fan of the Shirreffs/Smith combination I’ll make Ryehill Dreamer my second choice followed by The Pamplemousse.  Know this though, I would NOT feel comfortable taking a stand and making Square Eddie a single – partly because he has yet to demonstrate he is head and shoulders above this field and partly because chalk has been routinely trounced at Santa Anita thus far this year.  Some of you may be braver than I…I just feel it’s my duty to caution you while I can. 

Selections: 6/4/1/3

 

Race 8: The Grade 2 San Fernando (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Muny (D. R. Flores/M. Puype) 8/1
  • #2 Wishful Tomcat (J. Rosario/R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #3 Cherokee Artist (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 20/1
  • #5 Booted (V. Espinoza/R. Mandella) 8/1
  • #6 Nownownow (J. Talamo/P. Biancone) 12/1
  • #7 Madeo (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 3/1*
  • #8 El Gato Malo (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #9 Silver Sword (M.C. Baze/D.O’Neill) 30/1
  • #10 Slew’s Tiznow (R. Bejarano/D.O’Neill) 7/2
  • #11 Tres Borrachos (T.Baze/B. Greely) 12/1
  • #12 Dakota Phone (G. Gomez/J. Hollendorfer) 8/1

By far the most challenging race to handicap in the stakes sequence at Santa Anita is the 57th running of the Grade 2 San Fernando.  Several big name competitors line up, including one time 2008 Kentucky Derby hopeful El Gato Malo, and stakes winners Muny, Slew’s Tiznow, and Tres Borrachos (who finished 9th in the 2008 Preakness).

When I first picked up the advance copy of the DRF, I was overjoyed to see Muny listed as 6/1.  I knew it wouldn’t be that good, but it’s more than disappointing to see him instead listed as the morning line favorite at 3/1.  Granted, if you like the horse, 3/1 really isn’t a bad price to eat chalk on.  It’s actually about as good as you can do when favoritism is concerned.  Still, the less than confident odds denote just how difficult this race came up.

Muny and Wishful Tomcat both look like horses that should show speed from the inside, although Muny does possess a hint of tactical ability as evidenced by his style in his initial two maiden efforts.  He just about took a strong field including Cowboy Cal and Court Vision to task in the Hollywood Derby before fading to 5th late.  That was at 1 1/4 miles, and today he cuts back to 1 1/16.   Even better, he’s been able to hold off Madeo in the past, and outside of Wishful Tomcat should not be too hardly pressed today.  Based on the odds, I’ll probably make him (Muny) my top play.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Madeo and El Gato Malo here, so if you’re playing the exotics, I’d probably spread fairly deep on this one.  Note that Madeo hasn’t been coming from as far off the pace in his synthetic tries as he has on turf, so it would be wrong to discount him as a dead late closer here.  I’d amost guarantee that he makes his presence felt here.

El Gato Malo was once my favorite 3-year-old on the California circuit last year, but he ran into some distance limitations trying to go 1 1/8 miles.  Anywhere from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth is probably his distance limit.  My guess though, is that he’ll probably leave himself more to do than Madeo will, which makes Madeo the stronger play.

Of course, you can never count a Tiznow colt out of a street fight, and to ignore the impressive 102 Beyer figure of Slew’s Tiznow would be a total mistake.  I have some concerns about how he classes up against some of these runners, but he should get a nice ride from jockey Rafael Bejarano and if you toss his effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend in the “Pro Ride” (dirt) Mile, then he clearly fits with these.

Two x-factors in the race may be Booted and  Tres Borrachos.  With “three drunks” (Tres Borrachos), you never quite know who will show up.  Early last summer he sort of peeked, and since then has not hit the board.  He’s been off since October though, and while he likely needs a race, he appears to have been working very well in the mornings.  I would not be shocked if he hit the board at 12/1. 

Booted once almost gave me a heart attack, so I’ll never forget him.  It was July 4, 2007, and I was alive in the late Pick 4 at Hollywood singled to Salute the Sarge in the 7th race.  For much of the early going, it looked like Booted was going to be a major player, then he suddenly backed out of the race.  According to the “closer look” comments in the DRF, the horse was injured that day (as well as on another occasion).  He’s a tough one to figure out definitively, but it’s hard to argue with the recent form coming off back to back wins.

Selections: 1/7/8/10

As always, best of luck to all and make sure to check for late changes and scratches.  It’s brutally cold here on the East Coast, so I’ll likely be inside with the newborn all weekend.  I plan on having some Sunday picks up as well, but for what it’s worth I’m going for the I-95 Super Bowl in the AFC/NFC championship game.  Ravens vs Eagles.  It’ll be just like ’83 when the Orioles and Phillies banged heads.  And you know what?  The outcome would be the same – a Baltimore victory.  No doubt the Steelers will have something to say about that when all is said and done, and I must say that as a devoted St. Louis Rams fan, I know as well as anyone that you NEVER count Kurt Warner out of a fight.  I just can’t publicly pick the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl.  Years of Cardinals awfulness could be clouding my judgement though.

If you’re looking for anything else to bide the time away this bitter cold weekend, be sure to check out the photo contest we have going over at the new TBA homepage.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie

Out with the old, in with the new

30 12 2008
It’s hard to believe there are just 2 days left (including today) in 2008.   The year, in general, was a mixed bag of results.  On the one hand we got to cheer and celebrate when Curlin won the Dubai World Cup, and then again as Big Brown progressed towards an elusive Triple Crown.  Ultimately though, the year feels like something of a disappointment.  Curlin was overcome in his defense of the Breeders’ Cup Classic title, and Big Brown first failed in the Belmont Stakes and then was removed from racing following an injury leading up to the Classic.

On a personal note the year was a sweeping success.  It was my first full calendar year blogging about the sport, and thanks to all of you it was a  year I’ll never forget.  The high point of the year being the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas.  As of this writing,  I sit here literally days, if not hours, away from another life changing moment, the arrival of my second child.  Knowing my luck, this will either come during the first big stakes of the year this weekend, or during the Sugar Bowl with my beloved Crimson Tide (minus all-world left tackle Andre Smith) against the Utes.

I’m a history lover, so it’s natural for me to dwell on the past to the point of redundancy.  At some point, however, it’s necessary to put one’s head down and move forward, no matter how bitter or sweet (or anything in between) the memories one is leaving behind to posterity may be.  All of this creates a somewhat vexing problem; how to end the calendar year here at The Aspiring Horseplayer?  Do we do the ubiquitous “look back” post?  Do we combine the past with the present, while still gazing towards the future? 

I’ll settle this internal monologue by divulging that  I’ve decided to begin with a clean sweep of the horse watch list.   You may have noticed it disappeared around 4 months ago.  At one point it was a an anchoring page of this site, but alas, no longer.  It just got to be too much to keep it up to date and pertinent.  Instead, I’ve opted for regular postings as we progress through the Triple Crown season and the soon to be unleashed “road to the roses” for the 2009 thoroughbred racing season. 

Part of me feels that what follows is laughable nonsense, with about as much net worth as a pre-season top 25 poll in NCAA football. Still, a larger part of me feels that you’ve got to start somewhere, and while this list might not look much different from others already floating around out there, I’m nonetheless proud to present our initial top 10 rankings as we head into the 2009 season.

It goes without saying that a disclaimer must be made here that this list is by no means exhaustive, nor does it purport to be of any real consequence.  In fact, I’m just as interested in what horses the rest of you are buzzing about out there. These are just 10 horses I have my eye on at the moment that I believe have a fair chance at becoming household names in 2009 if they enter the history books as the next Kentucky Derby winner or, perish the thought, a legendary Triple Crown winner.  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that last thought though.  

Vineyard Haven
Vineyard Haven

#1 Vineyard Haven:  The talented son of Lido Palace cemented his place atop many 2-year-old watch lists with his impressive victories in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.  The colt’s fortunes took a bit of a twist when he was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables.  While the colt will remain in racing, and the Sheikh’s overall goal remains conquering the Kentucky Derby, Vineyard Haven will apparently prep for the Derby in Dubai as opposed to in the major prep races here in the United States. It remains to be seen how this will play out.  Before parting ways with Vineyard Haven, trainer Bobby Frankel commented that he had Triple Crown potential. 

 

Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned

 #2 Old Fashioned:  He may be flying under the radar of some at the moment.  After all, his resume isn’t as glorified as some of the others on this list, but if you saw his performance in the Remsen then you need no further explanation.  He won that day by over 7 lengths, his second victory around two turns.  He’s got speed, which is always a plus on dirt, and has shown he can carry that speed.  He’s also a bit of a feel good story as he is trained by Larry Jones, an exceptional horsemen who received a lot of unwarranted smear after his filly Eight Belles broke down following the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Jones has hinted at retiring, so Old Fashioned could be the last hurrah for one of the finest trainers of young horses in the game.   

 

Square Eddie wins

Square Eddie

#3 Square Eddie:   For a guy suffering visibly from Curlin withdrawal, perhaps no horse gives me greater hope for the future then Square Eddie, the so-called “baby Curlin.”  Square Eddie finished 2ndin the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Midshipman.  Prior to that he prevailed in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity.  He’s got versatility, having won races in North America and Europe.  Additionally, like Curlin he was sired by Smart Strike, so he ought to handle the dirt at Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont just fine if/when asked (at least in my thoroughly unprofessional opinion).   What can I say?  I’m a total sucker for chestnuts.  Although, I must say that doing a Google image search for pictures of Square Eddie returns some disturbing photos of some sort of Eddie Murphy parade float.  I’m not sure what’s going on there. Suffice to say I’m scarred for life and now have a strange fear of all things Eddie Murphy related…at least synthetic Eddie Murphy material. 

 

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

#4 Nicanor:  Call it a heart play if you must.  This full brother to the great Barbaro may never pan out to be anything like his sibling.  I certainly don’t mean to put any false expectations on the colt.  For me it’s just nice to see that he’s in training andthat he exists at all.  Wouldn’t it be cool though if he wound up inheriting some of Barbaro’s greatness, and took the horse racing world by storm?  With so little already proved, and so much left to prove, there’s no way  I could leave this guy off my list.  Whether he goes on to be a career maiden/bottom rock claimer or a Grade 1 phenom, he’s one of the 3 year-olds I’ll have my sights most focused on.  He’s got his own blog in case you are interested in following along.  All he needs now is his own “entourage” (complete with Turtle and Meadow Soprano, of course) and he’ll have super-star status written all over him.

  

Stardom Bound

Stardom Bound

#5 Stardom Bound:  The top 2-year-old filly in the land as the calendar begins to turn towards her 3-year-old campaign.  As Square Eddie is to Curlin, so (at least in some respects) Stardom Bound is to Zenyatta.  She lived up to that billing by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita in October.  Clearly she’s the top dog out on the California synthetic track circuit.  So what’s she doing on this list of possible Kentucky Derby contenders?  Well, for starters, she simply looks that good.  Additionally, if she holds true to the “baby Zenyatta” form,  she won’t suffer from a switch to true dirt if/when asked.  That will obviously be the biggest question if her campaign ever gets that far.  I think with the success of Eight Belles in last year’s Kentucky Derby (before the tragic ending to the story), we saw that fit fillies can take on and run with the best of the boys.  If our best filly were to get such a chance this year, it would be her.  That alone makes her a contender at this point in the game.  

 

Midshipman

Midshipman

#6 Midshipman:   Another of the top colts purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables in their never ending quest for a Kentucky Derby championship.  I’m just not  as high on this guy at the moment as I am Vineyard Haven.  Vineyard Haven I could clearly see going on to be the top of his division next year.  Midshipman has more of the “flash in the pan” look to me.  That’s not to knock what the colt has accomplished.  He is, after all, the champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita this past October, and such (at least in theory) the top 2-year-old in the nation.  We’ll see.  Don’t forget that apart from Street Sense, being the champion 2-year-old is usually a bad omen for one’s Kentucky Derby prospects (War Pass, anyone?).   Now add in that this guy will be training overseas in Dubai, and that his win in the Juvenile was over synthetics  

 

#7 Haynesfield: Perhaps trainer Steve Asmussen’s top Derby hopeful.  Haynesfield is another established router from the NY circuit that could become  a major player in the upcoming year.  He was out in front the entire race in his victory in the Damon Runyon, for NY breds, on December 7th at Aqueduct.  That race went 1 mile and 70 yards, and he cleared in 1:46.34, earning a 101 Beyer figure. He’s a son of Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter, so there will always be some whispered distance concerns until he consistently proves otherwise.  The great news is we’ll see him this Saturday in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct – which just so happens to be the first major stakes that began Smarty Jones legendary run a few years ago.  Keep an eye on this guy.  

Munnings

Munnings

#8 Munnings:  I think a lot of folks have given up on this guy. If it’s because he floundered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing 10th, so be it.  What I remember is that this guy came into that race with perhaps the best dirt form of any of the contenders, and ran into a race that looked more like a turf stakes over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.  In other words, I’ve learned to forgive Munnings, why can’t you?  Shouldn’t we bury the hatchet and move on?  All joking aside, the colt remains largely unproven going two turns, but was thriving up in New York prior to the Juvenile.   My big question with Munnings is whether he’s already peaked and spent his bolt, or whether he’ll continue to progress and move forward?  For now he’s a tentative member of the list.   

 

#9 Cribnote: Ran into Vineyard Haven in both the Hopeful andthe Champagne.  Was never able to overcome that one, but fought on valiantly (more so in the Hopeful).  This guy could go either way.  If he’s able to move forward he may find himself moving past rivals on the progression scale.  If not, he’ll quickly fade into the type of runner destined for the Aspiring Horseplayer trivia board game many years from now.  Cribnote is a son of Read the Footlights and is trained by Richard Violette Jr.  

Pioneer of the Nile:  The son of Empire Maker (hat tip to Mike) makes the list by virtue of his victory in the CashCall Futurity.  The Bob Baffert trainee prevailed by a nose, but there are already loud whisperings by some that the CashCall was not a particularly tough race.  Still, ‘Pioneer was finishing well and the Empire Maker’s tend to develop with experience, so the sky is still the limit with this colt. 

Others I thought of using:  Silver City, Big Drama, Obligingly, Quality Road, You Luckie Mann, Frolic’s Dream, Notonthesamepage, and Elusive Heat.

Oh yes, and by the way, be sure and check out our nifty new home page over at http://tbablogs.com

 


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Quick Picks

25 10 2008

It’s Championship Saturday!  Look, I don’t care who you are, if you’re alive and breathing you need to be playing along in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools at Santa Anita today. We’ve got 9 championship races – from the Marathon to the Classic.  I won’t be giving out a “caveman” ticket here today, as I’ll likely be all over the place and switching things up right up until the cutoff.  Instead, we’ll look at each race and I’ll just throw out some horses I think deserve win consideration.  Hopefully this helps folks boil down to the horses they can choose from for their exotic wagers.

Race 1: Breeders’ Cup Marathon ($500,000)

  • #4 Sixties’ Icon (2/1*)
  • #6 Zappa (5/2)
  • #8 Cedar Mountain (6/1)
  • #5 Muhannak (20/1)
  • #3 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Sixties’ Icon could make this one simple if he shows up in his recent form.  He’s got 3 straight wins overseas and won a group 2 race at this distance over the turf at Newmarket in May ’07.  As long as he takes to the track it should be his, but that’s always the question with these types. 

Zappais the next likely candidate based on his effort in the Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar on 7/30/08.  Since then he’s been soundly beaten by the likes of Well Armed and Go Between – who thankfully he avoids today.  The key with him is not biting off more than he can chew from a competition standpoint, and he certainly fits with this field.

Cedar Mountainwas my original pick in our polls at the beginning of the week.  I heard Watchmaker mention him as well when talking with Matt  Carouthers on TVG yesterday.  He’s at a fair price and has at least shown synthetic form (and decent at that) compared to the favorite.

My bombs for the race would be Muhannak (20/1) and Delightful Kiss (8/1).  I really like Muhannak here.  He’s won at this distance on both turf and synthetics.  I’ll play him at 20/1 all day long.

 

Race  2: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint ($1,000,000)

  • #13 Get Funky (9/2*)
  • #3 True to Tradition (15/1)
  • #2 Fleeting Spirit (5/1)
  • #9 Desert Code (30/1)

Turf sprints certainly aren’t my strong suit, but this one appears predictable on paper.  Mr. Nightlinger and Calfironia Flag will be part of what should be a white hot pace.  This should open things up for my top two picks.  Get Funky  has crept up in my rankings since I originally picked True to Tradition earlier in the week.  I still like them both, and obviously favor the odds on the latter, but Get Funky gets the slight nod now for having experience over the downhill turf course.  ‘Funky is the favorite, but 9/2 is a pretty fair price.

Fleeting Spirit  warrants consideration not only for being a Euro-invader (always a threat on the grass), but for chasing a talented Marchand d’Or lat time out in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (Group 1).  Obviously he’ll have to take to the firm turf at Santa Anita to run big.

My longshot bomb for the race is Desert Code at 30/1.  He’s 3 for 5 at this distance and can flirt with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.  One of t he rare times you’ll see a jockey switch from Gomez to Migliore potentially yield rewards.

 

Race 3: Breeder’s Cup DIrt Mile ($1,000,000)

  • #8 Well Armed (3/1*)
  • #7 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #2 Lewis Michael (5/1)
  • #2 Surf Cat (6/1)

The “synthetic mile” got a little less interesting when Mast Track defected (possibly – he’s in one moment and out the next depending on where you turn).  I’m pretty chalky here with no real bombs. Well Armed  just looks like the play to me. I’m not sure he can be beat, and I suspect he’ll get pounded well below 3/1 at the windows.   Lewis Michael will probably float up to 2nd choice, but I wasn’t impressed with the workouts I caught on TVG (and it didn’t seem like they were all that impressed either).  Albertus Maximus could offer some “value” if the other two get bet down.  Surf Cat  probably can’t win this, although I’ll be shocked if he’s not in the superfecta.  He’s too good not to hit somewhere.  I know my wife wants Pyro here at long odds, but I can’t imagine him pulling off the upset.  My Pal Charlie  was rumored to have been training well for the event, so take that into consideration when filling out your superfecta.

 

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf – $2,000,000)

  • #4 Goldikova (3/1*)
  • #2 Kip Deville ((5/1)
  • #8 Daytona (6/1)
  • #11 Whatsthescript (4/1)
  • #3 Precious Kitten (8/1)

This one should be about Goldikova - provided she likes the footing here at Santa Anita.  The multiple Group 1 winner may “only” be a 3-year-old filly, but she’s part of an excellent crop from Europe and actually enters with a distinct class advantage over the U.S. runners.  Note that the last horse to defeat her was Zarkava, who would be odds on favorite here if she had shipped across the pond.  Check her out in the post parade, but if she looks good she’s probably the only number you need to cover.

Kip Deville is the best U.S. turf mile runner in my opinion, so if something happens to Goldikova (which is possible), he’d make the most sense in my mind.  Oh yeah, he also won this race last year, so don’t sell him short.  He wasn’t favored last year either, and has won 2 of 3 races since.  His last effort may cause some folks to jump ship, but note that it came over a yielding turf at Woodbine that he obviously didn’t enjoy.  Expect a rebound and a much bigger performance today.

Daytona and Whatsthescript are horses that I really like, I’m just worried about each.  I’m concerned that Whatsthescript is up against it breaking from the outside as he’ll have to find a way to save as much ground as he can in the 1st turn.  Daytona is a Grade 1 winner, but hasn’t been able to defeat Whatsthescript in 2 recent tries.  I suppose he could turn the corners if Whatsthescript falters due to the aforementioned reason, so he may be worth taking a shot if you want a price.

For the ultimate upset, though I don’t think it’s going to happen, you could try Precious Kitten at 8/1.  She’s probably in over her head here, but if she did pull it off it would be fun to be a part of it.

 

Race 5: The Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ($2,000,000)

  • #4 Square Eddie (9/2)
  • #12 Bushranger (6/1)
  • #1 Munnings (7.2*)
  • #11 Midshipman (5/1)
  • #8 Street Hero (6/1)
  • #13 Minethatbird (30/1)

The Juvenile looks a little more wide open than it did to me on first glance.  I’m still backing Square Eddie  in the hopes that he can move forward off of his victory in the  Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity on October 4. “Baby Curlin” would help keep a good thing going since Zenyatta and Zenyatta Jr. (Stardom Bound) won yesterday on Ladies’ Day.  How cool would it be if Curlin and Baby Curlin brought things home today?  He’ll have a chance. 

Bushranger is a horseI essentially missed in my handicapping at the beginning of the week.  He’s a good sprinter from overseas that could run away with this thing if he takes to the track.  Word on TVG was that he’d looked pretty good, and 6/1 is a good price all things being considered.

Munnings is the East Coast top 2-year-old.  Usually the eastern horses don’t ship as well going west as good as the California horses ship east.  That’s just my opinion. Still, this guy has talent and would be hard to leave out of contention.

Midshipman and Street Hero  each look like they’ll have a chance, but if you want to go busting the bank take a stab on the 30/1 longshot of the field, Minethatbird.   He’s coming off 4 consecutive victories – and it’s not like he can’t run on synthetics.  You could do a lot worse at 30/1.

 

 

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf ($1,000,000)

  • #12 Grand Adventure (5/1)
  • #11 Bittel Road (7/2*)
  • #7 Coronet of a Baron (9/2)
  • #3 Westphalia (5/1)
  • #4 Donativum (6/1)
  • #10 Skipadate (6/1)

It looks to me that you’ve got to go deep here in the exotics as I don’t see a standout.  Grand Adventure is my top choice, but Bittel Road does deserve the morning line favoritism.  The horse that perplexed me originally was Coronet of a Baron, but the folks at TVG insisted during “the works” that he has looked sensational since arriving at Santa Anita.   I have trouble separating Westphalia, Donativum (who struck me as a cool customer when they showed him on TVG), and Skipadate.  Good luck on this one.

 

 

Race 7: The Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint ($2,000,000)

  • #2 Street Boss (3/1*)
  • #1 Cost of Freedom (4/1)
  • #3 Fabulous Strike (4/1)
  • #4 Midnight Lute (7/2)
  • #7 In Summation (10/1)

My guy for the Sprint all summer long has been Street Boss, but I remain concerned that he may get caught in traffic or leave himself a bit too much to do turning for home.  Cost of Freedom is the horse that hung on against him last time out in the Ancient Title, so you’ve obviously got to give that one a fair chance here as well.  I do think Street Boss will get the job done, but my confidence has been dulled a bit. 

Midnight Lute is the x-factor.  There are those that think he runs away with this just like he did last year’s Sprint, but there’s obvious reason to be concerned. He’s been on the shelf and his last races don’t look anything like his triumph last year at Monmouth.  If the real Midnight Lute shows up this whole thing is academic, but that still a big “if.”

In Summation is the horse I think could shock everyone.  He may have done so in the Ancient Title if not for some traffic trouble.  He’ll probably be forgotten at the windows so there will be value here.  He’s worth a win flyer in my opinion.  Same for Fabulous Strike if he’s 4th choice on the tote board. 

 

Race 8: The Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Turf ($3,000,000)

  • #4 Soldier of Fortune (7/2*)
  • #2 Red Rocks (5/1)
  • #10 Out of Control (10/1)
  • #9 Conduit (6/1)
  • #11 Eagle Mountain (6/1)

The Breeders’ Cup Turf seems to be all about Soldier of Fortune.  A legitimate Group 1 turf runner, he has banged heads with the likes of Youmzain, Zarkava, and Dylan Thomas.  If he takes to the firm turf at Santa Anita and the heat doesn’t get to him, he should be able to defeat this field.  However, if those things don’t happen, there will be value underneath, and most likely inflated value as you’re not likely to get anything like 7/2 on Soldier of Fortune.

Red Rocks is my next choice due in large part to his defeat of Curlin in the Man O’ War.  I think that was a deceptively good turf race since it also featured Better Talk Now, Out of Control, and Grand Coturier (who are also in this race today).  Red Rocks made ‘em all look silly in that one, and despite the fact he’s been off for a while, should be able to get back on top.  He’s got the European breeding that is always important and he’s thrived in U.S. turf racing. 

Out of Control is a longshot that a lot of folks are whispering about.  Yet another from that Man O’ War against Curlin and Red Rocks.  He posted a 112 Beyer Speed Figure chasing Red Giant last out in the Hirsch.  Another effort like that and he’s a player in here for sure.

Eagle Mountain and Conduit are likely to be higher than 6/1 on the board in my opinion, so they are my “bomber” picks.  And it goes without saying I’ll have something sentimental on Better Talk Now as I’ve loved “Blackie” for years.

 

Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Classic ($5,000,000)

  • #9 Curlin (7/5*)
  • #1 Go  Between (8/1)
  • #8 Raven’s Pass (6/1)
  • #5 Henrythenavigator (10/1)

Since it’s likely my last chance to bet Curlin – I’ll be all aboard on him in the exotics.  Yes, I think it’s possible he gets beat today.  Obviously it’ll be the surface if he goes down.  I think he was good enough on the turf to expect him to run solid over the Pro-Ride, but I’m not thinking it will be his best effort.  This is a tough, tough field to crack, but if anyone can do it, it’s him. 

Go Between is the horse for the course I’d make 2nd choice.  He also looked a million bucks from what I saw on “the works” on TVG.

Raven’s Pass is the most interesting of the Euros in my opinion.  Raven should be able to get the extra 1/4 mile today in the Classic with no problems.

Tough call between Henry and The Duke – but I liked what I saw of Henrythenavigator during the weekly workouts a bit more.

 

Best of luck to all – Happy Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday!!!


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Curlin, Daytona, Go Between, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Precious Kitten, Pyro, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Street Boss

Picking a winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

22 10 2008

As we roll right along through the Breeders’ Cup races for Saturday at Santa Anita, we find ourselves next posed with the prospect of picking the best “baby.”  Which 2-year-old will win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and follow in the steps of recent winners such as War Pass and Street Sense? 

Munnings has earned the initial morning line favoritism at 7/2.  The son of Speightstown has been in the money in each of 3 lifetime starts (1 win, 1 place, and 1 show), and has been finishing along with Vineyard Heaven and Cribnote in his initial Grade 1 attempts in the Hopeful and Champagne.  On the plus side, Munnings will not run into either of those competitors on Saturday.  On the downside, he hasn’t won since his debut in the Maiden Special Weight ranks on July 25 at Saratoga.  Still, when you look at him – his first two races he blew the start, thrashing into the gate and then stumbling.  In his latest effort in the Champagne, he was compromised a bit perhaps by breaking from the 10 hole.  On Saturday he’ll get a new challenge to overcome with the Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita, which has me leaning in a different direction.

The horse I’m giddy about seeing is the 2nd choice on the morning line, Square Eddie.  I’ve heard him called “baby Curlin” - which probably helps explain a bit why I’m interested in him. Beyond that he appears to be a horse with some upside who may have rounded into form just in time for the Juvenile.  Keeneland’s track plays a little different than Santa Anita’s, but this guy has also shown he can handle the turf, and I like to see that versatility.  He’s also going to have Rafael Bejarano aboard as jockey – a guy that can certainly get the job done at Santa Anita.

A couple of other horses look interesting to me as well.  Street Hero is an improving son of Street Cry, much like Street Sense was 2 years ago. He’s won over the track, can handle the distance, and was able to turn the tables on his main rival thus far, Midshipman.  Of course, Midshipman is also here, so if you like one you’ve almost got to like the other.  If I had to pick one of these guys, I’d probably lean towards Street Hero as I feel he’s more likely to be headed in the right direction. 

There seem to be two key races for this event – either the Grade 2 Norfolk at Santa Anita (which produces Azul Leon, Midshipman, Silent Valor, and Street Hero) or the Grade 2 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland (which produced Pioneer of the Nile, Square Eddie, and Terrain).  Sadly, I was only able to find the youtube replay for the Breeders’ Futurity:

Square Eddie romps away to victory in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity

Of the two races I actually believe the Norfolk is the one to focus on.  I’m going to be backing Square Eddie as my top choice though in the hopes that “baby Curlin” can help present a good omen for the fortunes of Curlin in the Classic.  As a handicapper though, I’d probably side with Street Hero.

Bushranger looms as the Euro-invading x-factor of the race that I’m having trouble getting a good read on.  Likewise, I wouldn’t be surprised if West Side Bernie breaking from the outside at odds of 20/1 found a way to hit the board.  I don’t really want anything to do with Azul Leon or Mine That Bird, although the latter is 4 for 5 thus far on the synthetic surface at Woodbine.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita, Square Eddie


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