How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Stardom Bound

Stardom Bound overcomes wide trip to win Santa Anita Oaks

7 03 2009

 

It wasn’t the way trainer Bobby Frankel and IEAH Stables had planned it, but it’s still a victory.  Stardom Bound, the 2008 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies champion had to earn her keep on Saturday in the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1), just nosing out longshot Third Dawn in a tantalizing photo finish that looked incredibly close to the naked eye. 

The win was her 5th consecutive in as many Grade 1 efforts, and boosted the daughter of Pulpit’s lifetime earnings to $1,780,600.  However, it also raised serious questions as to whether she’d point towards an eventual showdown with rival colts Pioneer of the Nile  and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April. 

Burg Berg under jockey Tyler Baze was the early pacesetter, rattling off opening fractions of :23.78 and :47.54.   Hooh Why and jockey Robby Albarado pressed the pace while Stardom Bound trailed the field, giving the leader 10 lengths in the early going.

Turning for home it was Hooh Why for trainer Carla Gaines who got first jump.  Stardom Bound was in a terrible spot and forced extremely wide turning wide.  Longhshot Thid Dawn came with a late run in between horses in the final sixteenth while Nan made a bold move to the inside and began gobbling up ground.  All the while the grey Stardom Bound came bounding to the wire, and just when it looked like she might not make it, she found a way to get her nose down on the wire. 

She’s a classy filly.  That much is certain.  I’m just not so sure she should be shooting for either the Santa Anita Derby  or the Kentucky Derby.  What I’d love to see at this point is for her to come east in May and run in the Kentucky Oaks.  For now we’ll have to wait and see what IEAH decides to do with her next. 

 


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Saturday Derby Prep Selections

6 02 2009

Another Saturday – another weekend of exciting prep races building up to the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  This weekend we’ve got several key preps including the Grade 3 Risen Star, the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis, and, due to the fact that Stardom Bound makes her 3-year-old debut, The Grade 1 Las Virgenes.   There’s also the Whirlaway at Aqueduct, but that one looks like a one horse show for Haynesfield.  At least the others appears to be less of a “sure thing” – even with the two-year-old champion filly Stardom Bound in the mix.

We’ll start at Fair Grounds with the 36th running of the Grade 3 Risen Star

G3 Risen Star (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Map of the World (Albert Stall Jr./ C.C. Bourque) 20/1
  • #2 Indygo Mountain (William B. Calhoun/ H.J. Theriot) 10/1
  • #3 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Corey Lanerie) 15/1
  • #4 It Happened Again (Larry Jones/T. Thompson) 10/1
  • #5 Uno Mas (Steve Asmussen/ B. J. Hernandez) 8/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/ Gabriel Saez) 7/2
  • #7 Giant Oak (Chris Block/ Edgar Prado) 3/1*
  • #8 Dumar (Steve Asmussen/ Sean Bridgmohan) 20/1
  • #9 Code of Honour (William Bennett/ R. Toups) 20/1
  • #10 Soul Warrior (Steve Asmussen/ P. Valenzuela) 6/1
  • #11 Summer’s Empire (Anthony Mitchell/J. Campbell) 8/1
  • #12 Flying Pegasus (Ralph Nicks/Robbie Albarado Jr) 6/1
  • #13 Au Moon (David Carroll/Jordan Leparoux) 8/1

 This sets up on paper as a clash between top 3-year-olds Friesan Fire and Giant Oak.  Somewhat surprisingly (at least to me), Giant Oak is listed as the slight favorite at 3/1 compared to Friesan Fire’s odds of 7/2.  I had expected it to be the other way around and was prepared to select Giant Oak for the mild upset.  Now I’m not so sure.  To be fair, 3/1 isn’t a bad price if you’ve got to eat chalk, and it is rather difficult to separate these two. 

I tend to be rather “sometimey” when it comes to Friesan Fire.  I’d love to see Larry Jones turn the tables on last year’s tragedy by capturing his first Derby title, and Friesan Fire would appear to be his top contender to do so.  The son of A.P. Indy took a bold move forward on the Beyer progression scale when defeating Patena and Au Moon in the Lecomte last month.  That being said, he’s also known defeat to both Uno Mas and Flying Pegasus.  You know Larry Jones will have him ready to run, as the man is simply one of the best trainers on the planet (especially with 3-year-olds), and he’s teamed up once again with his ace, jockey Gabriel Saez.  Perhaps even more importantly, while fresh, he’s got some recent races under his belt, something his main rival today cannot say.

Giant Oak is a horse that could be any type.  He also made a tremendous move forward last November when placing in  the Kentucky Jockey Cup.  He wound up sandwiched between Beethoven and Captain Candyman Can, two very useful runners  – the latter moving up Derby rankings as we speak.  He’s been working very sharply and came off of  a shorter layoff to post that 90 Beyer speed figure last out…but will he be ready to go 8.5 furlongs having been off over 2 months?  My guess is he will be, but he might need a race before he’s ready to produce a truly top effort. 

Larry Jones has another one worth checking out in this race in It Happened Again.  I’ve yet to see this one run, but he looks like a potential thief here.  Toss out his debut and his first try against winners and he looks playable here.  Although, his only effort on the main track here at Fair Grounds left much to be desired.   Uno Mas, Flying Pegasus, and Au Moon all look like contenders underneath that you’ve got to toss into the 10 cent superfecta equation, which I’ll play with Friesan Fire on top:

6/4,5,7/4,5,7,12,13/4,5,712,13  ($3.60)

 

Moving onto the Santa Anita features….

The Grade 1 Las Virgenes (1 Mile)

  • #1 Navigator (Ron Ellis/Victor Espinoza) 6/1
  • #2 African Skies (Patrick Biancone/ Joe Talamo) 30/1
  • #3 Century Park (Bob Baffert/ Tyler Baze) 20/1
  • #4 Nan (Craig Dollase/Cory Nakatani) 20/1
  • #5 Stardom Bound (Bobby Frankel/Michael E. Smith) 3/5*
  • #6 Haka (Christophe Clement/Rafael Bejarano) 10/1
  • #7 Saucey Evening (Graham Motion/Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  • #8 Toro Bonito (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1
  • #9 Pinkarella (Doug O’Neill/ John Rosario) 8/1

All eyes will be on the 2-year-old champion filly, Stardom Bound, as she makes her 3-year-old debut at her “home track.”  The amazing daughter of Tapit  made believers out of her doubters by absolutely dominating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last October.  Since then she’s been on the shelf, being carefully prepared for a possible run in this year’s Kentucky Derby – where she might attempt to make history by being the first filly since Winning Colors to win the nation’s most famous race.  First things first though, she’s going to have to shake off some rust and put away this field, which has a few runners capable of giving her a significant challenge.

Navigator will get a lot of attention, and rightly so as an apparent front running type in what might otherwise be a paceless race, but I see her biggest threat as being the Graham Motion runner Saucey Evening.  The Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies winner seems to enjoy the surroundings at Santa Anita as much as Stardom Bound, and should be looking to close into whatever pace materializes in front of them.   She appears to be on the improve and might wind up getting first jump on the champ as they attempt to close.  It’s going to be a tall order, but is it really that hard to support an 8/1 horse with an apparent big chance over an obvious 3/5 favorite like Stardom Bound?  I didn’t think so.  She’s got a chance, and a chance at 8/1 is usually good enough for me. 

Of the others, Pinkarella looks useable underneath, as does Haka.  I wouldn’t seel Toro Bonito too shourt either, as she has a tendency to end up in or near the money in every race (apart from her last where she finished 7th).   Lastly, the Bob Baffert entry Century Park is coming off a Grade 3 win, and offers fairly solid value underneath at 20/1.

Don’t get me wrong, this one almost certainly goes to Stardom Bound, but I’ll take a flyer in a rare departure from my “Captain Obvious” habits in the 10 cent superfecta here:

7/1,5/1,3,5,6,8,9/1,4,5,6,8,9  ($4.00)

 

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Bittel Road (Todd Pletcher/ John Velazquez) 6/1
  • #2 Pioneer of the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 2/1*
  • #3 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 8/1
  • #4 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 5/2
  • #5 Mark S the Cooler (Doug O’Neill/ Cory Nakatani) 12/1
  • #6 Oil Man (John Sadler/Michael E. Smith) 15/1
  • #7 Brother Keith (Bobby Frankel/Tyler Baze) 10/1
  • #8 Shafted (Marke Casse/ J. Rosario) 8/1
  • #9 Charlie’s Moment (Walther Solis/Jose Valdivia Jr) 20/1

We move to the boys for the 71st running of the Robert B. Lewis.   Pioneer of the Nile is the big gun here, coming off a victory in the Cash Call Futurity that depending on who you talk to was either visually impressive or nothing to write home about.  Based on the fact that the third place finisher, Chocolate Candy, went  on to win his next out at Golden Gate, I’ve been gradually growing fonder of that effort.   The son of Empire Maker can handle the distance, we know that, and has been working like a bat out of hell.  As of right now it’s between him and The Pamplemousse for the top 3-year-old colt on the left coast.  Only trouble is, as has been widely reported, he doesn’t really “need” this race.  He’s probably already a Derby lock.  How might that affect things in the race?  Probably not too much, but it might be worth taking a stand against him and looking for value elsewhere, even though as in the Las Virgenes that means playing into the teeth of a worthy favorite. 

So who might the main competition be?  Some folks will side with Brother Keith, for trainer Bobby Frankel – a man who has had success in this race in the past.   Brother Keith had a nice workout here on Monday and could be prepped for his best effort now that jockey Tyler Baze has hopped aboard.  I’m not sold though.  He’s probably going to be a major part of whatever happens up front pace wise, but I need to see more of a killer instinct from him (which is possible) before I can back him.

I Want Revenge is an obvious choice having finished well gainst Pioneer of the Nile in the CashCall.   Like his rival, he’s been freshened and has been working well in the mornings.  The son of Stephen Got Even is seemingly a lock to hit the board, having been in the money in all 5 lifetime starts. 

Bittel Road is another interesting possibility, and one I’d actually give a big chance on Saturday.  In his only two sub-par performances he’s been stuck outside in wide post positions.  He moves to the rail today and returns to the steady hand of jockey John Velazquez, who guided him to victory in the first two starts of his career.  He’s also out of the Todd Pletcher barn, and one thing you know for certain is that Pletcher likes to get a bunch of ‘em ready for the Derby.  This might be one of the sneakier components of his arsenal.  He’ll need to bring his best, but note that he made a sneaky ‘middle move’ from 6th to 4th before fading against Pioneer in the Cash Casll.  Right now he’s probably considered a better turf runner than main track runner, but his only main track effort was at Hollywood, which plays a bit closer to true dirt in my opinion than the often turf-impersonating Pro Ride of Santa Anita.  Don’t sell this guy short.  At 6/1 he could go off at double digit odds, in which case he’s an obvious play.

I’ll keep Pioneer of the Nile on top for now, but may go bombing with Bittel Road if the odds are right.   I Want Revenge, as previously mentioned, is an obvious player to use as well.   The others I’d give chances to round out the ticket include Papa Clem,  Brother Keith, Shafted, and Charlie’s Moment.  I’m not a Mark the Cooler fan and would much prefer the 20/1 odds of Charlie’s Moment underneath than the 12/1 offered on Mark the Cooler.

2/1,4/1,3,4,7,8,9/1,3,4,7,8,9 ($4.00)

In other quick pick action, I’ll take Grasshopper in the Mineshaft (Fair Grounds), Haynesfield in the Whirlaway (Aqueduct), and Cowboy Cal in the Strub.

Best of luck to everyone, and as the rains have been heavy at Santa Anita this week, be sure to check for late changes and scratches.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Handicapping Selections, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound

Curlin still the champ

26 01 2009

The speculation is over.  Curlin has defended his crown as Horse of the Year by taking the honor again for 2008.  The son of Smart Strike becomes the first horse since Cigar to repeat as Horse of the Year.   In the final “race” of his life, he held against the amazing filly Zenyatta to prevail by 84 votes, 153 to 69.

The win, along with top older male honors, marked the 4th Eclipse Award the talented champion has earned, having also won the 2007 Horse of the Year and top 3-year-old male last season.   “Team Curlin” didn’t do so bad either, with trainer Steve Asmussen picking up his first Eclipse Award as champion trainer.  Perhaps the defining moment of Curlin’s campaign that help seal the deal in his bid to repeat as champion was his impressive performance in the Dubai World Cup, a race in which owner Jess Jackson would mention that he was proud to plant the U.S. flag overseas.

Curlin wins the prestigious Dubai World Cup in March 2008

 

Other winners included:

  • Apprentice Jockey:  Pascacio Lopez
  • Jockey:  Garrettt Gomez
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen
  • Breeder:  Adena Springs
  • Owner:  Stronarch Stables
  • Steeplechase Horse: Good Night Shirt
  • Female Turf:  Forever Together
  • Male Turf: Conduit
  • Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
  • Male Sprinter: Benny the Bull
  • 2-Year-Old Filly:  Stardom Bound
  • 2-Year-Old Male:  Midshipman
  • 3-Year-Old Filly: Proud Spell
  • 3-Year-Old Male: Big Brown
  • Older Female: Zenyatta
  • Older Male:  Curlin
  • HORSE OF THE YEAR:  CURLIN

Some of the highlights of the evening included the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance being plugged during an acceptance speech by Brad Hennegan of the Hennegan Brothers, who captured the Eclipse Award in television feature for their acclaimed work on “The First Saturday in May.”  That’s some serious positive press for our little TBA “band of brothers” (and sisters). 

Also of note was the shocking news (to me at least) that IEAH Stables would bring champion sprinter Benny the Bull out of retirement later this summer for another campaign and a chance to defend his newly won crown.  This is really good news for racing fans.  I’ve been an admirer of Benny the Bull for a while now, and while he was a heavy favorite, his win on Belmont Day in the True North Handicap still gives me chills.  We had him singled on a Pick 6 ticket that, while singled later in the day on Big Brown, was dependant upon ‘Benny getting it done in the True North.  As the field raced for home  it looked like Benny was up against it and might not pull through, perhaps suffering a dreaded “Dubai bounce”, but he willed himself home in the final 100 yards to temporarly save the day.   If he’s got any more of that left in the tank, the second half of this year ought to be exciting.

Benny the Bull rallies late to win the True North Handicap on Belmont Day in June 2008

 

All in all, while I respect the awards themselvees, the awards show is something I dare say is in need of a wholesale makeover.  Don’t get me wrong, there were probably some of the more memorable acceptance speeches I’ve seen this year, including one innocent and easily taken out of context comment by Jess Jackson perhaps suggesting  that Assistant Trainer Scott Blasi may have  “slept with” Curlin.  That one in particular got a chuckle out of me.  For the most part, however, the feeling watching at home on television was sort of bland.  Although I’ve got to give a big shout out to TVG analyst Simon Bray for sporting the “Vince from ShamWow” headset microphone.   :)

I just wish they’d jazz these awards shows up a bit and make them a bit more appealing to a new generation of fans.  I’ not suggesting I’d like to see the Jonas Brothers there or anything like that, but it wouldn’t hurt to spruce things up a bit is all I’m saying.

Enough on that though, for now let us take a moment to congratulate everyone connected with the amazing race horse Curlin.  He’s the type of runner that already people have begun speaking of in that fashion reserved for the greats that typically begins “the first time I saw him…”  Once someone receives the kind of praise where people are marking their life’s progress by where they were and what they were doing the moment he achieved some of his greatest glory, you know he’s firmly etched in their hearts and minds. 

At the end of the evening Jackson joked that Curlin, while seemingly a bit depressed at not being able to race anymore, would soon find out what his future held, and would likely be very pleased.  I think that’s a good metaphor for where many of us as fans are.  We’re depressed as well that he won’t be back, though we certainly understand what a special opportunity it was for his connections to have brought him back as a 4-year-old in 2008.  For that we are eternally grateful. And like Curlin, perhaps if we could see into the future and what prospects it might hold, we would be qutie pleased as well.  Who knows, 3 years from now we might be getting ready to start buzzing about the first of his offspring to hint at their father’s ability and potential.

Mad props to you, Curlin.  May we be so lucky to have another like you soon.


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Categories : Benny the Bull, Big Brown, Curlin, Eclipse Awards, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Stardom Bound, Zenyatta

Out with the old, in with the new

30 12 2008
It’s hard to believe there are just 2 days left (including today) in 2008.   The year, in general, was a mixed bag of results.  On the one hand we got to cheer and celebrate when Curlin won the Dubai World Cup, and then again as Big Brown progressed towards an elusive Triple Crown.  Ultimately though, the year feels like something of a disappointment.  Curlin was overcome in his defense of the Breeders’ Cup Classic title, and Big Brown first failed in the Belmont Stakes and then was removed from racing following an injury leading up to the Classic.

On a personal note the year was a sweeping success.  It was my first full calendar year blogging about the sport, and thanks to all of you it was a  year I’ll never forget.  The high point of the year being the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas.  As of this writing,  I sit here literally days, if not hours, away from another life changing moment, the arrival of my second child.  Knowing my luck, this will either come during the first big stakes of the year this weekend, or during the Sugar Bowl with my beloved Crimson Tide (minus all-world left tackle Andre Smith) against the Utes.

I’m a history lover, so it’s natural for me to dwell on the past to the point of redundancy.  At some point, however, it’s necessary to put one’s head down and move forward, no matter how bitter or sweet (or anything in between) the memories one is leaving behind to posterity may be.  All of this creates a somewhat vexing problem; how to end the calendar year here at The Aspiring Horseplayer?  Do we do the ubiquitous “look back” post?  Do we combine the past with the present, while still gazing towards the future? 

I’ll settle this internal monologue by divulging that  I’ve decided to begin with a clean sweep of the horse watch list.   You may have noticed it disappeared around 4 months ago.  At one point it was a an anchoring page of this site, but alas, no longer.  It just got to be too much to keep it up to date and pertinent.  Instead, I’ve opted for regular postings as we progress through the Triple Crown season and the soon to be unleashed “road to the roses” for the 2009 thoroughbred racing season. 

Part of me feels that what follows is laughable nonsense, with about as much net worth as a pre-season top 25 poll in NCAA football. Still, a larger part of me feels that you’ve got to start somewhere, and while this list might not look much different from others already floating around out there, I’m nonetheless proud to present our initial top 10 rankings as we head into the 2009 season.

It goes without saying that a disclaimer must be made here that this list is by no means exhaustive, nor does it purport to be of any real consequence.  In fact, I’m just as interested in what horses the rest of you are buzzing about out there. These are just 10 horses I have my eye on at the moment that I believe have a fair chance at becoming household names in 2009 if they enter the history books as the next Kentucky Derby winner or, perish the thought, a legendary Triple Crown winner.  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that last thought though.  

Vineyard Haven
Vineyard Haven

#1 Vineyard Haven:  The talented son of Lido Palace cemented his place atop many 2-year-old watch lists with his impressive victories in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.  The colt’s fortunes took a bit of a twist when he was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables.  While the colt will remain in racing, and the Sheikh’s overall goal remains conquering the Kentucky Derby, Vineyard Haven will apparently prep for the Derby in Dubai as opposed to in the major prep races here in the United States. It remains to be seen how this will play out.  Before parting ways with Vineyard Haven, trainer Bobby Frankel commented that he had Triple Crown potential. 

 

Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned

 #2 Old Fashioned:  He may be flying under the radar of some at the moment.  After all, his resume isn’t as glorified as some of the others on this list, but if you saw his performance in the Remsen then you need no further explanation.  He won that day by over 7 lengths, his second victory around two turns.  He’s got speed, which is always a plus on dirt, and has shown he can carry that speed.  He’s also a bit of a feel good story as he is trained by Larry Jones, an exceptional horsemen who received a lot of unwarranted smear after his filly Eight Belles broke down following the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Jones has hinted at retiring, so Old Fashioned could be the last hurrah for one of the finest trainers of young horses in the game.   

 

Square Eddie wins

Square Eddie

#3 Square Eddie:   For a guy suffering visibly from Curlin withdrawal, perhaps no horse gives me greater hope for the future then Square Eddie, the so-called “baby Curlin.”  Square Eddie finished 2ndin the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Midshipman.  Prior to that he prevailed in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity.  He’s got versatility, having won races in North America and Europe.  Additionally, like Curlin he was sired by Smart Strike, so he ought to handle the dirt at Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont just fine if/when asked (at least in my thoroughly unprofessional opinion).   What can I say?  I’m a total sucker for chestnuts.  Although, I must say that doing a Google image search for pictures of Square Eddie returns some disturbing photos of some sort of Eddie Murphy parade float.  I’m not sure what’s going on there. Suffice to say I’m scarred for life and now have a strange fear of all things Eddie Murphy related…at least synthetic Eddie Murphy material. 

 

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

#4 Nicanor:  Call it a heart play if you must.  This full brother to the great Barbaro may never pan out to be anything like his sibling.  I certainly don’t mean to put any false expectations on the colt.  For me it’s just nice to see that he’s in training andthat he exists at all.  Wouldn’t it be cool though if he wound up inheriting some of Barbaro’s greatness, and took the horse racing world by storm?  With so little already proved, and so much left to prove, there’s no way  I could leave this guy off my list.  Whether he goes on to be a career maiden/bottom rock claimer or a Grade 1 phenom, he’s one of the 3 year-olds I’ll have my sights most focused on.  He’s got his own blog in case you are interested in following along.  All he needs now is his own “entourage” (complete with Turtle and Meadow Soprano, of course) and he’ll have super-star status written all over him.

  

Stardom Bound

Stardom Bound

#5 Stardom Bound:  The top 2-year-old filly in the land as the calendar begins to turn towards her 3-year-old campaign.  As Square Eddie is to Curlin, so (at least in some respects) Stardom Bound is to Zenyatta.  She lived up to that billing by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita in October.  Clearly she’s the top dog out on the California synthetic track circuit.  So what’s she doing on this list of possible Kentucky Derby contenders?  Well, for starters, she simply looks that good.  Additionally, if she holds true to the “baby Zenyatta” form,  she won’t suffer from a switch to true dirt if/when asked.  That will obviously be the biggest question if her campaign ever gets that far.  I think with the success of Eight Belles in last year’s Kentucky Derby (before the tragic ending to the story), we saw that fit fillies can take on and run with the best of the boys.  If our best filly were to get such a chance this year, it would be her.  That alone makes her a contender at this point in the game.  

 

Midshipman

Midshipman

#6 Midshipman:   Another of the top colts purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables in their never ending quest for a Kentucky Derby championship.  I’m just not  as high on this guy at the moment as I am Vineyard Haven.  Vineyard Haven I could clearly see going on to be the top of his division next year.  Midshipman has more of the “flash in the pan” look to me.  That’s not to knock what the colt has accomplished.  He is, after all, the champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita this past October, and such (at least in theory) the top 2-year-old in the nation.  We’ll see.  Don’t forget that apart from Street Sense, being the champion 2-year-old is usually a bad omen for one’s Kentucky Derby prospects (War Pass, anyone?).   Now add in that this guy will be training overseas in Dubai, and that his win in the Juvenile was over synthetics  

 

#7 Haynesfield: Perhaps trainer Steve Asmussen’s top Derby hopeful.  Haynesfield is another established router from the NY circuit that could become  a major player in the upcoming year.  He was out in front the entire race in his victory in the Damon Runyon, for NY breds, on December 7th at Aqueduct.  That race went 1 mile and 70 yards, and he cleared in 1:46.34, earning a 101 Beyer figure. He’s a son of Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter, so there will always be some whispered distance concerns until he consistently proves otherwise.  The great news is we’ll see him this Saturday in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct – which just so happens to be the first major stakes that began Smarty Jones legendary run a few years ago.  Keep an eye on this guy.  

Munnings

Munnings

#8 Munnings:  I think a lot of folks have given up on this guy. If it’s because he floundered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing 10th, so be it.  What I remember is that this guy came into that race with perhaps the best dirt form of any of the contenders, and ran into a race that looked more like a turf stakes over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.  In other words, I’ve learned to forgive Munnings, why can’t you?  Shouldn’t we bury the hatchet and move on?  All joking aside, the colt remains largely unproven going two turns, but was thriving up in New York prior to the Juvenile.   My big question with Munnings is whether he’s already peaked and spent his bolt, or whether he’ll continue to progress and move forward?  For now he’s a tentative member of the list.   

 

#9 Cribnote: Ran into Vineyard Haven in both the Hopeful andthe Champagne.  Was never able to overcome that one, but fought on valiantly (more so in the Hopeful).  This guy could go either way.  If he’s able to move forward he may find himself moving past rivals on the progression scale.  If not, he’ll quickly fade into the type of runner destined for the Aspiring Horseplayer trivia board game many years from now.  Cribnote is a son of Read the Footlights and is trained by Richard Violette Jr.  

Pioneer of the Nile:  The son of Empire Maker (hat tip to Mike) makes the list by virtue of his victory in the CashCall Futurity.  The Bob Baffert trainee prevailed by a nose, but there are already loud whisperings by some that the CashCall was not a particularly tough race.  Still, ‘Pioneer was finishing well and the Empire Maker’s tend to develop with experience, so the sky is still the limit with this colt. 

Others I thought of using:  Silver City, Big Drama, Obligingly, Quality Road, You Luckie Mann, Frolic’s Dream, Notonthesamepage, and Elusive Heat.

Oh yes, and by the way, be sure and check out our nifty new home page over at http://tbablogs.com

 


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Breeders’ Cup Friday wrapup – Zenyatta reigns supreme

24 10 2008

“Ladies’ Day” at Santa Anita was exactly what the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup wanted.  The two stars of the day, Zenyatta and Stardom Bound, were as advertised, romping to victory in the Ladies’ Classic and the Juvenile Fillies, respectively.

 

Zenyatta runs away with the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic

 

The undefeated Zenyatta triumphed in the Ladies’ Classic (formerly the Distaff) to remain perfect on the year and run her lifetime record to 9 for 9.  The 4-year-old daughter of Street Cry spent much of the early going in last place, but by the 1/2 mile pole, every one else was running for place and show.  She hit the wire in 1:46.85 – 2nd fastest time in Ladies’ Classic (Distaff) history according to Randy Moss during the ESPN broadcast.

If anything goes wrong for Curlin tomorrow, we may have just seen the Horse of the Year.  She was brilliant, breathtaking – everything we could’ve hoped for.  Thoroughbred racing’s first lady is as advertised.  Fans should be excited then to learn that the plan seems  to be to keep her in racing next year for a 5-year-old campaign.  Jockey Michael Smith rode her beautifully and capped off a huge day for him. 

 

Stardom Bound crushes the competition to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

 

In the other action in the day, Stardom Bound proved she was tops of the 2-year-old filliy division by destroying the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile FIllies.  The grey looked unstoppable as she exploded down the stretch.  They call this gal “Zenyatta Jr.” and it’s easy to see why.  Once again it was Michael Smith aboard as the filly had to overcome being pinched slightly at the start.  Dream Empress ran on for 2nd, with Sky Diva grabbing show.  Zenyatta Jr. indeed.  She’s a superstar alright.

 

Ventura gets the party started with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

 

The day got started with Ventura upsetting Indian Blessing in the Filly & Mare Sprint.  Indian Blessing ran a big one, but Ventura simply ran right by her in the stretch.  Ventura hit the wire in 1:19.90, missing a record Breeders’ Cup record for 7 furlongs by 1/100 of a second.  Zaftig ran on for show with Miraculous Miss rounding out the superfecta.  Ventura had been noted on TVG as the “wiseguy” play of the race.  

 

 

Maram pulls the upset in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

 

In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Laragh got out to an easy early lead, as expected.  However, Laragh seemed to have burned herself out a bit after going 45 and change through 4 furlongs early on.  In mid stretch, Maram and Heart Shaped put in their bids and motored for home. Maram got first jump on Heart Shaped, and in the end that was enough to get her nose down on the wire first.  It was a thrilling finish that provided a feel-good moment in the day, as Maram’strainer Chad Brown expressed his emotions concerning the passing of his grandfather, whose funeral he missed to be at Santa Anita today.

 

 

Forever Together grinds out the win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

 

In the Filly & Mare Turf it was Forever Together’s turn to reach the winner’s circle.  Forever Together is now infamous as being the “Guinness horse” since trainer Jonathan Sheppard revealed that he places a pint of Guinness in her daily feed.  The move is supposed to be to help keep her sweating healthily.  Whatever it is, it worked, and it’s gotta be the Guinness! The folks at Guinness should capitalize on that form a marketing standpoint. They’ve helped create a champion! Longshot Sealy HIll got up for place which prompted a break-the-bank $27,010.20 superfecta along with Wait a While and Visit.  At one point it looked like Visit was going to try and run away with it, but Forever Together got it done when it counted.

Up next is Championship Saturday featuring 2007 Horse of the Year, Curlin.  It ought to be a smashing day, and if Friday was any indication the track is playing extremely fair and the best horses seem to be winning. Hats off to Zenyatta for delivering in her big day.  Hopefully the world finally got a good look on national television at the best filly in North America.  It may be up to Curlin now to win the Classic if he wishes to defend as Horse of the Year for 2008.  Zenyatta has risen to the challenge.  Will Curlin take his turn in the spotlight tomorrow? 


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound, Zenyatta

Picking a winner in the Juvenile Fillies

20 10 2008

The Juvenile Fillies! I have to admit here that I’m pumped up hoping to catch a glimpse of Stardom Bound here, so it goes without saying that I’ll be playing (and possibly eating) chalk in this race as well on Friday. 

Stardom Bound has an absolutely crushing, devastating late kick that gobbles up ground at an unprecedented rate.  She’s the obvious choice as favorite and about the only thing that can beat her is herself.

 

Stardom Bound destroys the field in the Oak Leaf

I originally joked with some friends a few weeks ago that Friday was by far the easier of the two Breeders’ Cup championship days to hit the pick 6 in.  This is in large part due to contenders such as Stardom Bound in the Juvenile Fillies, who along with Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic looks about as sure a thing as you’ll ever find in this sport.  Of course, this is horse racing – and if it were that easy we’d all be millionaires, so keep that in mind before rushing out to break the bank.

There are several horses in here that could keep it interesting.  Sky Diva and Dream Empress are the two that will likely take 2nd and 3rd favoritism at the betting windows.  There’s another horse in here that I really like even though she’s being asked to do quite a lot by competing here at this distance – Doremifasollatido.  I’ll be cheering her on if only to hear the track announcer call her name as many times as possible.  Heck, the race call from her victory 2 months ago even made the local news here in Hanover, PA.  What’s not to like about that?  

I’ll give you two others in here that could be shockers at big prices.  “Shug” McGaughey may have a live one with Persistently, who seems to have a similar (though not quite as powerful) kick as Stardom Bound.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but if something happened to the favorite (such as traffic trouble, etc.) then who knows? 

Lastly, Pursuit of Glory looks like an interesting European invader with some decent synthetic experience.  Again, it’ll take something for the race not to fall to Stardom Bound though.

Geez…can you tell I’m high on Stardom Bound?  :)

How do you guys see it?  Chalk it up to the favorite and move on or is someone going to shock us all and pull the upset?


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound


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