Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Selections

4 11 2009

Time is getting short.  At the beginning of the week it seemed like there was ample time to compile selections, but as the days of the week tick bye, it’s starting to feel like crunch time.  I’m scheduled to fly out to California for the Breeders’ Cup tomorrow, so the feeling is even more urgent for yours truly to get all the initial picks and analysis covered – if only that I may look like a complete fool in retrospect by the end of the weekend.  Such is the life of an aspiring horseplayer, I suppose.

The field for the $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint sets up like this:

  1. Noble Court (8/1)
  2. Silver Timber (8/1)
  3. California Flag (7/2*)
  4. Lord Shanakill (8/1)
  5. Get Funky (20/1)
  6. Cannonball (8/1)
  7. Gotta Have Her (15/1)
  8. Square Eddie (20/1)
  9. Diamondrella (4/1)
  10.  Canadian Ballet (20/1)
  11.  El Gato Malo (30/1)
  12.  Strike the Deal (15/1)
  13.  Desert Code (20/1)
  14.  Delta Storm (10/1)
  15.  AE – Tenga Cat (30/1)
  16. AE – Cherokee Heaven (30/1)

Good lord.  Sixteen possible contenders to handicap?  Seems like it would stand to reason that we might have a great betting race before us.  I’ll temper that expectation a bit from the start that by pointing out the obvious – we’ve got a very live favorite here who might get an extremely favorable pace setup alone on the lead.  Let’s keep this simple and run down the field horse by horse and see what we can discern, shall we?

NOBLE COURT is a son of Doneralie Court that appears to like to come from off the pace. He’s 1 for 1 over the track and distance for trainer John Sadler, who happens to be hitting  at a 22% clip for the meet.  They like to give him some time between starts, and he hasn’t been seen since a very good 2nd place finish to the mighty Zensational (whom we will see later on in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint).  Overall he’s a Grade 3 winner who would appear to have a good shot to wind up in the money, although it will take his best to prevail.

SILVER TIMBER is a very interesting runner that has won 4 of his last 5 starts for trainer Chad Brown, racing mostly on the east coast but also most recently at Keeneland.  One of the angles I like to see from an out of town contender is proven ability to win at multiple locations, and the son of Prime Timber has done that recently in finding his way to the winner’s circle at Keeneland, Belmont, and Gulf Stream Park this year.  One gets the feeling this guy is rounding (or perhaps has rounded) into his top form now at 6-years-old.  He certainly seems a better horse than he was last year, which is saying something considering he ran for one of the better turf sprint trainers in the nation back then in Linda Rice. 

CALIFORNIA FLAG is the local hero and winner of the Morvich Handicap (Grade 3) last out, a win which ran his recent record to an impressive 5 victories in his last 6 starts.  He’s a burner for sure, perhaps best indicated by the mind blowing :20 & 3 he he ran out of the gate in last year’s BC Turf Sprint – a race that saw him fade badly to 10th at the wire, as might be expected given such a lightning start.  Since then he’s been very smart – and quite deadly in California, having won at Hollywood Park, Del Mar, and Santa Anita this year.  If he gets loose on the lead again, which he very well could, watch out.

LORD SHANAKILL looks like one of the sneakier options in this race.  He’s a 3-year-old son of Speightstown, so you know he was born to sprint.  He’s one of the somewhat mystical (to American bettors) European horses, and obviously they are strongly considered on grass.  His form isn’t eye popping enough that he’ll get hammered at the windows, but he has run respectably against Mastercraftsman (potential favorite for the BC Mile).  Can’t really say the same for his effort against Sea the Stars though.  Interesting possible x-factor here to size up as much as you can in the post parade.

GET FUNKY is a hard knocker that always seems to be hitting the board for minor awards.  The son of Straight Man (interesting contrast to this one’s name) has seemed to improve though this summer, and seems to prefer this shorter distance.  He just missed by a length against CALIFORNIA FLAG in the Morvich and could be one to benefit should the favorite be softened up at all in the pace setup.

CANNONBALL is another who seems to be slowly improving just in time for this effort.  The son of Catienus finished 2nd in his final Group One effort this summer at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee Stakes.  He followed that up with a victory in a NY state bred stakes for $74k at Saratoga in September that only drew a 6 horse field. I see some things to like in this guy, although obviously the stakes (pardon the pun) get higher here.

GOTTA HAVE HER is another sneaky looking type, this time for trainer Jenine Sahadi.  The daughter of Royal Academy has won back to back races, and just missed to Magical Fantasy (who we will see in the BC Filly & Mare Turf on Friday) in the Grade 1 John C. Mabee at Del Mar.  Sahadi is hitting at 31% with last out winners, and jockey Tyler Baze has been having a stellar meet winning at a 23% clip.  Toss in a perfect 4 for 4 record at the distance and an impressive 9-5-1-2 record at Santa Anita and I think this is a mare you’re going to have to use in some fashion – especially at 15/1. 

SQUARE EDDIE looks like an outsider here. It pains me to say that as the once proclaimed “baby Curlin” is a horse I’ve always wanted to see accomplish great things.  He just hasn’t looked quite the same this year.  His running motion concerns me a bit, although I’m by no means an expert on such things.  On the positive side, his human connections are strong with trainer Doug O’Niell and of course Dettori taking the mount.  I’d love to see him get it done – I just don’t think it’s in the cards.

DIAMONDRELLA is nothing if not a model of consistency.  We’re talking about a horse who has won 7 of 9 races since joining the barn of Richard Dutrow, including a pair of Grade 1′s (the Justa Game at Belmont and the First Lady at Keeneland).  One of those 2 losses was by a head, and the other was to Informed Decision, who has a big shot to win the BC Sprint later in the card.  I really like this horse. My only concerns are a lack of recent published works at Santa Anita, and the fact that she’s never been over the course.  Of the ladies lined up to battle the boys in this race, I think she makes the most sense.  If you’re looking to play against the favorite, this would be my top pick as “best of the rest.”  

CANADIAN BALLET is a 4-year-old filly running out of the Linda Rice barn.  If you know me, then you know turf sprints aren’t my cup of tea.  This means that Linda Rice is, without question, my equine related soul mate – as we are polar opposites. You’d be hard pressed to find a finer trainer for such affairs, and while I like this daughter of City Zip, I’m just not sure that she can go with CALIFORNIA FLAG.  All of her wins have been wire-to-wire, which means to prevail, she’ll need to do something new. Hmmmmm. Very nice filly, I’m just going to lean elsewhere.

EL GATO MALO – man, I remember when this guy was one of my favorite 3-year-olds on the California circuit last year.  Obviously he’s a year longer in the tooth.  Trouble is though, he’s just never really put it all together.  On his absolute best I see him as fighting for a minor award here.  In all fairness though, a look down the list of horses to have beaten him recently is fairly impressive. Yes, that last race was only an Allowance level one, but Neko Bay, Mast Track, and Becrux is pretty darn salty for such a race. 

STRIKE THE DEAL is the last of the types I’d classify as “sneaky” (15/1 still qualifies as “sneaky”, doesn’t it?).  A winner of back to back starts in the U.K., the 4-year-old son of Van Nistelrooy retains the services of jockey Kieran Fallon for the Turf Sprint.  I’m not as familiar with some of the competition he’s faced, so like the other “sneaky” plays, he’s a bit of an x-factor, but certainly seems capable.  He seems to have overcome some trouble in each of the last victories, and his lines suggest he might be moving well late.  I’d like to see this guy with my own eyes first before finalizing my opinion.

DESERT CODE is a bit on an enigma.  You almost feel surprised when you think back and remember that he won this race last year.  At first glance you see his recent form and you think “no way.”  But look closely – especially at how he came into this race last year.  Would you believe that in his final prep for the 2008 BC Turf he also finished 7th to California Flag?  Hmmm. The more things change, the more they stay the same.  He’s not one of my top picks, but would anyone really be that surprised if he somehow did it again?  Respect this guy more than his recent form or the action on the tote board might otherwise suggest.  I mean c’mon – do you want to let last year’s victor beat you at 20/1?  I didn’t think so.  He’s as worth a $2 flyer as any horse I’ve handicapped thus far for that reason alone.

DELTA STORM is a Mike Mitchell trainee who has put up speed figures that clearly make him a contender.  He’ll get a pace to run at, but must overcome breaking from the 14 hole.  I think he’s a prime candidate to hit the board – “if” he can get a decent trip.  Joel Rosario will be in the irons attempting to make that happen.  Remember earlier in the year when folks were avoiding Rosario on the grass?  How sweet would it be if he picked up a BC turf race?  Just something to ponder.

As if all of this weren’t enough, there’s two horses on the also eligible list that might draw into the field. Of the two, TENGA CAT seems to be more of a pace pressing type, while CHEROKEE HEAVEN seems to like coming from off the pace – which I’d prefer given the lightning speed in this race casually referred to as CALIFORNIA FLAG.

I like the looks of both CALIFORNIA FLAG and DIAMONDRELLA here.  Obviously CALIFORNIA FLAG has a lot going for him and is worthy of top selection, but DIAMONDRELLA offers slightly better value.  Underneath on the exotics, I’d like to work in DESERT CODE, CANNONBALL, and GOTTA HAVE HER, along with possibly LORD SHANAKILL.

Selections:

  • #3 California Flag (7/2*)
  • #9 Diamondrella (4/1)
  • #13 Desert Code (20/1)

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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Selections

3 11 2009

Now that we’ve got the morning line odds, post positions, and initial scratches/changes to work with, we can take a bit of a more in depth look at the racing action at Santa Anita as we continue with our race by race look at the Breeders’ Cup.  We’ll turn our attention to the $1 million Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf for the moment.  The field sets up as follows:

  1. Zip Quick (50/1)
  2. Viscount Nelson (6/1)
  3. Codoy (15/1)
  4. Pounced (9/2)
  5. Gallant Gent (30/1)
  6. Awesome Act (20/1)
  7. Bridgetown (8/1)
  8. King Ledley (20/1)
  9. Kera’s Kitten (12/1)
  10. Becky’s Kitten (12/1)
  11. Interactif (4/1*)
  12. Buzzword (6/1)
  13. AE – Dean’s Kitten (12/1)
  14. AE – Summer Movie (50/1)

Like many of the races this weekend, the Juvenile Turf sets up as a showdown between the U.S. and Europe.  The U.S. contingent is led by INTERACTIF, a son of Broken Vow who has won 3 of 4 lifetime races.  Perhaps even more impressively, he’s proven his versatility by winning at 3 different tracks (Monmouth, Saratoga, and Keeneland), on two different surfaces (turf and dirt), and on varying track conditions (“yielding” in the G3 Bourbon and “firm” in the With Anticipation).  Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Kent Desormeaux will team up on INTERACTIF and attempt to get a tepid 4/1 morning line favorite home in the first action of the day on Saturday.

Opposing that outcome will be a contingent of potentially tough horses from Europe, comprised of BUZZWORD, POUNCED, KING LEDLEY, AWESOME ACT, and VISCOUNT NELSON.  Either of these 4 appear capable on paper, and we all know how the betting public (including yours truly) like to focus on the Euros in these types of races. 

It’s extremely difficult to separate this group on paper – at least in my estimation.  We see some familiar names in their running lines, including Beethoven and Siyouni. POUNCED got the closest to Siyouni last out in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (a race which should clearly be renamed the “Jean-Luc Picard” in honor of Star Trek TNG), but BUZZWORD has arguably been the more consistent horse and actually defeated Siyouni in the Group 3 Prix La Rochette in September. 

Do note, however, that neither POUNCED nor BUZZWORD have ever raced through left handed turns.

BUZZWORD and POUNCED exit the Jean-Luc at Longchamp, and will look to “make it so” in the BC Juvie Turf

Of course, it’s not like there aren’t other directions handicappers can turn in this race.  The above merely constitutes some of the more obvious things to consider.  Several up-and-coming types dot the field and make for interesting potential value plays. 

VISCOUNT NELSON looks particularly attractive at 6/1 on the morning line.  The sone of Giant’s Causeway has arguable improved in each race, despite being bested by 3/4 of a length last out at Doncaster in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes (where’s that gratuitous Christopher Walken “shamp-ah-nya” photo when I need it???).  Johnny Murtagh will retain the mount for trainer Aidan O’ Brien on this very appealing colt that is notably 2 for 2 lifetime at the 1 mile distance.  My only question is how the colt may fare over a more firmer surface, as so far he seems to have encountered softer footing than he’s likely to run over at Santa Anita. 

likewise, AWESOME ACT is a horse who can offer a ton of value at 20/1, provided you are able to forgive the 9th place finish last out in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB).  Take a look at that running line before you dismiss this guy.  He missed the start, was bumped, adn then was rank?  Talk about a trip from hell.  Draw a line through that race and he suddenly makes quite a bit more sense, doesn’t he?  Of course, it’s also worth noting that he has a tendency to be “rank” in nearly every race he’s run, so don’t expect a 180 turnaround – unless of course he really enjoyed the flight across the pond.  

With all that attention focused on the Euros, it’s easy to overlook some of the more local contenders.  BRIDGETOWN certainly hasn’t done anything to disgrace himself in 3 lifetime races.  Usually I’m a bit leery of playing Speightstown offspring at anything over 7 furlongs, but he’s proven he can get that crucial 8th furlong.  Trainer Ken McPeek is having himself a tremendous 2009 season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this guy somehow lit up the tote board. 

One could also make a bit of a case for GALLANT GENT based on his synthetic form; assuming of course that you are comfortable in taking the leap of faith that such form will translate well to the turf.  It’s also interesting to note that Joel Rosario will hop back aboard the son of Yankee Gentlemen, as these two paired up for victory at the Allowance level back in July at the Del Mar summer meet. 

Then there’s CODOY, a son of Bernstein currently listed at 15/1 who has yet to run a bad race.  True, it took him 4 tries to break his maiden, but he seems to be on the upswing.  I’m not expecting him to be able to defeat this field, but he could offer some value underneath if he takes that proverbial “next step.” 

As for the “kitten” horses, I’ll leave those to the cat-themed players, although if you really twisted my arm here I could point out some angles on each of them that give you something to consider. 

The only horse that would really floor me if they won is ZIP QUICK, as I can’t really make a solid case for him beyond having run 2nd over the dirt to D’funnybone, and picking up the services of jockey Mike Smith (oh wait, that’s two angles, isn’t it?). 

I’m going to guess that this race comes down to the wire in a very interesting battle between the top horses entered.  I’ll look for BUZZWORD, BRIDGETOWN, POUNCED, VISCOUNT NELSON and INTERACTIF to all have a shot as the field nears the wire.  In the end I prefer INTERACTIF due to his versatility, and POUNCED as the “now horse” from Europe, although you best believe I’ll have BUZZWORD, VISCOUNT NELSON, and possibly BRIDGETOWN in my exotic tickets.  No need to get bounced in the first leg of anything, right?  I’m not even going to guess about the underneath finishes as they’ll likely be a wall of horses just behind the leaders with nearly everyone still picking ‘em up and ‘putting ‘em down with a shot to hit the board.  Suffice to say I’m expecting some combination of these guys to hit the board.

I’m making POUNCED the top choice just because I always get nervous backing Todd Pletcher in big races.  Maybe it’s the oft-repeated Derby record that gives me pause.  I know this isn’t the Derby though, so I may be foolish for doing so.  I’ve also learned to fear any horse that Dettori climbs aboard, and seeing him listed atop what I believe to be the “now” horse in POUNCED, I can’t help but make him the selection.  Sweetening the pot is the fact that he’s slightly more favorable odds wise at 9/2 (instead of 4/1). 

Selections:

  • #4 Pounced (9/2)
  • #11 Interactif (4/1*)
  • #2 Viscount Nelson (6/1)

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Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Now that we’ve looked in depth at each of the Friday Breeders’ Cup races this week at Santa Anita, it’s time to get down to business in the Friday finale, the $2 million Ladies Classic.  This just happens to be the race I’ve been covering this season for the NTRA, so hopefully it’s one that I wind up being closer to the mark on in terms of selections.

Obviously the fate of this race will be determined by the connections for team Zenyatta.  If the undefeated and defending champion returns to preserve her crown, the entire thing becomes academic.  There’s simply not another filly or mare in the world that could handle her in her own back yard on the Santa Anita Pro Ride.   Don’t read too much into that statement though, as I think most folks know how I feel about the whole Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta “debate.”

Zenyatta – will the queen hold court in the Ladies Classic on Friday, or face the boys on Saturday?

In all honesty, given the way she’s worked and the effortless performance we saw from her last out in the Lady’s Secret, I’m fully anticipating the Moss family and trainer John Shirreffs opt to face the boys in a battle of the sexes in the Saturday version of the Classic. With that in mind, despite her being listed as an entry for the field below, I’m attacking this race assuming that Zenyatta will not be here.

Entries:

  • Careless Jewel
  • Cocoa Beach
  • Lethal Heat
  • Proviso
  • Rainbow View
  • Zenyatta
  • Life is Sweet
  • Mushka
  • Music Note

The first thing to consider in the likely absence of ZENYATTA is the pace scenario.  Whereas a 3-year-old like CARELESS JEWEL, freakish as she may be, would likely have been nothing more than a target for the “50 foot woman” to run at, she’d now become a serious threat to wire the field.  Especially given her synthetic track ability demonstrated in her past performance running lines at Woodbine earlier in the year.  Is Woodbine the same as Santa Anita’s Pro Ride?  Not exactly – but at least it’s an indication of ability.

MUSIC NOTE would be your most likely favorite in the absence of ZENYATTA as the daughter of A.P. Indy has won back to back races for white hot Godolphin Stables.   We know this, she can handle the Santa Anita Pro Ride just fine, as she did in last year’s Ladies Classic in her 3rd place finish behind ZENYATTA and COCOA BEACH.

Speaking of COCOA BEACH, the daughter of Doneralie Court finds herself right back where she was last year at this time.  To be totally honest, I liked her form coming into the Ladies Classic last year better than I do this year.  She’s still very capable against a Zenyatta-less field, but she might’ve been a step better in 2008.  On the plus side, she’s working her tail off and, like MUSIC NOTE, is racing for the Godolphin crew that seems to turn everything they touch into gold lately. 

LETHAL HEAT is an interesting component of this race as trainer Barry Abrams insists she’ll run on both Friday AND Saturday.  Personally I think that’s madness, but she definitely warrants consideration here on Friday in the Ladies Classic.  As I mentioned in the NTRA post today, you have to go back quite a ways to find her last win, but keep in mind that she’s been facing colts and ZENYATTA in between.  She just about always finds a way to finish in the money, and we all know that offspring of Unusual Heat seem to thrive over the California synthetics.  Don’t sell this gal too short is all I’m saying.

RAINBOW VIEW is a 3-year-old invader from Europe who would make quite a bit of sense in this race.  Whether she runs here or earlier on the card will likely be determined by the decisions made surrounding Zenyatta, but if she shows up she’s capable of staging the upset. 

LIFE IS SWEET would probably let out a huge sigh of relief if she could if indeed ZENYATTA runs elsewhere.  Her stablemate has had the misfortune of running directly into her in 3 of the last 4 races, with a showdown against colts like Rail Trip sandwiched in between.  Go back to her running lines before those last 4 races and what do you notice?  Oh yeah – this is a pretty solid horse who should be very game to run a big race here regardless of where ZENYATTA enters. 

MUSHKA and PROVISO have the look of outsiders, although anyone who watched them in the stretch of the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland knows they’ve got a bit of a score to settle. 

If ZENYATTA runs here, it’s her race to lose.  That’s probably the most obvious statement of the year.

If, however, she runs elsewhere, I’m going to take a stab with the 3-year-old phenom CARELESS JEWEL.  Why not?  Speed seems to be holding up fairly well in 2 turn route races over the Pro Ride.  It’ll take all she’s got in her, as she’s  yet to face horses as talented as MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW, but this one might set up nicely for her.

Obviously the class of MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW would warrant using them underneath.  Likewise I don’t think you can leave LETHAL HEAT or LIFE IS SWEET out of the equation here as well.  What appeared to be the “free square” of the Pick 6 sequence several days ago might suddenly become a wide open affair with bettors scrambling to end their tickets on some sort of bold stand. 

What say you?  If Zenyatta does indeed skip the Ladies’ Classic, which runner do you see stepping up to the plate (pardon the World Series inspired expression) and winding up in the winner’s circle as Ladies Classic champion?


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Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Moving right along with our race-by-race coverage of the Breeders’ Cup races, it’s time to look towards one of the bigger races of the day in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.  According to the advance entries, we’ve got a contentious field of 10 that might do battle here in what should be a very interesting race between the better North American female turf runners and those from Europe.

Dar Re Mi has several Breeders’ Cup races in her sights.

The entries are as follows:

  • Dar Re Mi
  • Dynaforce
  • Forever Together
  • Magical Fantasy
  • Maram
  • Midday
  • Pure Clan
  • Rainbow View
  • Rutherienne
  • Visit

Let’s just come right out with the obvious.  From top to bottom, this might be the most impressive field on all of “Ladies’ Friday” (or whatever the hell we’re supposed to call it – seems like every conceivably usable nomenclature for the day is bound to offend a few good folks).

In the North American corner, we’ve come out swinging with several of our biggest guns; namely FOREVER TOGETHER (last year’s champion), RUTHERIENNE, PURE CLAN, DYNAFORCE and local hero MAGICAL FANTASY.

The Euros have countered with the 3-year-old sensations RAINBOW VIEW and MIDDAY along with the extremely dangerous 4-year-old filly DAR RE MI.

Oh yes, and then there’s VISIT, who has one hoof in both camps by virtue of being bred in Great Britain, yet a familiar face around the California racing circuit.  And Maram – the Juvenile Fillies Turf champion from 2008 who appears to have stepped squarely into the deep end by attempting to take on these ladies.

The tendency is to develop  a bit of a Euro-fetish whenever grass is involved, and I readily admit I’m 100% guilty of doing so – not only in my Breeders’ Cup selections but practically any top level turf race at any track throughout the year.  I’m not sure why that is?  Just like I don’t advocate betting against SEC teams in College Football, so have I developed a healthy fear and respect for the best the Europeans send our way for major grass stakes. 

RAINBOW VIEW, MIDDAY, and DAR RE MI are a formidable trio, assuming all run here.  RAINBOW VIEW could be headed to the Ladies Classic, depending on where Zenyatta runs, and DAR RE MI might be taking on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Saturday.

If either of these horses runs here against their own sex, I think they would be quite formidable.  It’s not just that there Europeans.  If it were only that easy, then we would’ve nailed this race by a longshot last year.  Don’t forget, as our fearless TBA leader Handride points out in his latest post for the NTRA, we let FOREVER TOGETHER go off at 5/1 last year.

What makes this European crop so special begins with a turf runner like Sea the Stars – who while not entered here becomes a bit of a barometer from which to measure the ability of other horses.  Friends from Europe who follow racing insist to me that Sea the Stars is one of the all time greats – not just a great horse for 2009.  If true (and judging from the video evidence, I certainly see what they mean), then consider that DAR RE MI was only 3 1/4 lengths behind that runner in the Prix de l’ Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp  last month.  Also note that in 2008, this was a filly who finished just 2 lengths behind Zarkava (2008 Arc de Triomphe champion).  In between she’s taken on and defeated a filly I’m extremely fond of named Sariska, as well as Stacelita.

RAINBOW VIEW has faced off against slightly lesser competition, most likely by virtue of only being a 3-year-old filly (after this year, will we ever be able to say “only” a 3-year-old filly again? Probably not).  Of course, in this case “slightly lesser” equates to 2008 BC Mile champion Goldikova and the aforementioned Sariska, among others.  Ditto for MIDDAY (at least as far as Sariska) is concerned.

If you like the European crop, then there’s much to like about these horses.  Of course one must see them on the track in order to finalize an appreciation, no matter how much one fawns over them on paper.  Coming thousands of miles across continents isn’t easy even for people, let alone race horses that are expected to deboard and then run lights out against top level competition. 

Turning back to our local contenders, FOREVER TOGETHER still makes a lot of sense.  She’s faced some challenges this year, most notably from Diamondrella who simply may have her number on softer footing, but is still a classy defending champion that will make the others earn it in the stretch if they are to prevail.

MAGICAL FANTASY is a horse with many angles to consider.  The daughter of Diesis is coming off of 4 consecutive victories, with 3 of them being Grade 1 turf efforts. She loves the local surroundings and seems to run a fairly consistent race each time she’s sent to post.  Whether that will be enough to prevail against this field remains the question, but you know she’ll give an honest account of herself.

What about RUTHERIENNE?  Might she be the forgotten lady at the betting windows?  The daughter of Pulpit has turned in a 2009 campaign that I think folks would have to say exceeded their expectations.  In 2008 she was more of a consistent “underneath” play in the exotics, but now she’s shown she can run with the big girls, although typically she winds up just behind FOREVER TOGETHER.

As for the rest of the field, I’m not a big DYNAFORCE guy as I was admittedly burned quite badly on Preakness day when this runner flopped in the Galorrette (Grade 3).  Perhaps I should be more forgiving as that was her first start of the year?  It just seems like the others in this field are superior. In fact, between her and PURE CLAN (a horse she’s banged heads with on multiple occasions), I prefer PURE CLAN. 

MARAM and VISIT could wind up hitting the board, but I’ll be surprised if one of them finds the winner’s circle on Friday.  Doubly so for MARAM. 

I’ll be using DAR RE MI for the win here if she runs.  If not, I’ll probably turn to one of the remaining Euros in either RAINBOW VIEW or MIDDAY.  I prefer FOREVER TOGETHER from the North American flock, although I think both RUTHERIENNE and MAGICAL FANTASY warrant some serious respect here as well.  I made MAGICAL FANTASY the official 3rd selection below in the hopes that she’d be a slightly better price than FOREVER TOGETHER.  Truth be told, if both DAR RE MI and RAINBOW VIEW were to scratch, I’d probably play FOREVER TOGETHER or MAGICAL FANTASY on top – just keep that in mind as this field may be shaken up quite a bit before race day arrives. 

Selections:

  • Dar Re Mi
  • Rainbow View
  • Magical Fantasy

Have fun – this should be one of the better races of the weekend.


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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Things get a little less absolute when we turn once again to 2-year-old fillies in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Thankfully there’s no turf involved here, no matter how “turf resembling” some folks insist the Pro Ride to be. 

An extremely competitive looking group of 12 runners was entered for this race, including many of the same faces we discussed in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Ironically, this race may be even more difficult to handicap when all is said and done. 

The entries are as follows:

  • Always a Princess
  • Beautician
  • Bickersons
  • Biofuel
  • Blind Luck
  • Champagne d’Oro
  • Connie and Michael
  • Devil May Care
  • Ms Vanenzza
  • Negligee
  • She Be Wild
  • Zilva

First things first.  ZILVA came out as my top selection for the Juvenile FIllies Turf. Given that she’s more used to synthetics one might assume she’d be my selection here as well, right?  Not so fast, my friends.  The daughter of Successful Appeal has yet to win over the synthetics, which makes her a bit of a riskier play.

Looking at those who have shown the ability to win over the “plastics”, my eyes gravitate towards NEGLIGEE.  Here’s a runner who has yet to run in a “clunker” with 3 very good races under her belt.  The daughter of  Northern Afleet is one of only two runners in this field with a Grade 1 victory over an artificial surface, having prevailed in the Alcibiades at Keeneland on October 9.

Speaking of which, BLIND LUCK is the other runner with a Grade 1 victory on the synthetics, having taken the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita on October 4.  I think you have to key on these two efforts , although by virtue of being lightly raced (and not that far behind developmentally), many of the challengers in here could be very tough.

We get the 2nd, 4th, and 5th place finishers from the Alcibiades to go along with NEGLIGEE.  SHE BE WILD finished 2nd beaten by a 1/2 length that day.  The aforementioned ZILVA was 4th, with BEUTICIAN rounding out in 5th.

 

 

Looking back at the Oak Leaf, we have the 2nd and 3rd place finishers to go along with the champion coming back for more.  ALWAYS A PRINCESS wound up finishing 2nd to BLIND LUCK, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths after leading the field into the stretch.  BICKERSONS was closing fast and just missed ALWAYS A PRINCESS by a neck at the wire. 

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that ALWAYS A PRINCESS could get loose on the lead again in the BC Juvenile Fillies – depending on what CONNIE AND MICHAEL attempts. 

In all likelihood, your winner will come from either the Oak Leaf or Alcibiades fields earlier in the year, as those appear to be the major prep races.  That being said, BEAUTICIAN, BIO FUEL, and DEVIL MAY CARE have taken slightly different paths and cannot be discounted easily.

Ultimately, I’m siding with BLIND LUCK here due to her proven ability over the Pro Ride at the 1 1/16 mile distance.  I like NEGLIGEE quite a bit though and would not be shocked if she wound up in the winner’s circle.  Of the rest, I think BEUATICIAN could be a sneaky horse to use in the exotics as many bettors might dismiss her as being more of a dirt horse despite the fact that she was “blocked” and “steadied” in her only synthetic effort (an all things considered not-so-bad 5th place finish in the Alcibiades).

Selections:

  • Blind Luck
  • Negligee
  • Beuatician

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Advance Selections

2 11 2009

In looking over the first three races of the Breeders’ Cup Championships at Santa Anita this weekend, there seems to be a slight pattern emerging that goes something like this:  relatively simple race, followed by relatively difficult race, followed by relatively simple race.

We started things off with what appears to be Mastery’s race to lose in the BC Marathon, and then jumped into the fray with a very difficult to decipher running of the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.

As we turn our attention to the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, things would appear to be tending back towards simplicity…at least on paper (and at first glance). 

The field sets up like this:

  • Allicansayis Wow
  • Evita Argentina
  • Free Flying Soul
  • Game Face
  • Informed Decision
  • Only Green
  • Sara Louise
  • Seventh Street
  • Silver Swallow
  • Sweet Hearth
  • Ventura

The aforementioned simplicity is due to the fact that this race appears to set up wonderfully for INFORMED DECISION.  The daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has 5 wins in 6 lifetime races at the ever tricky 7 furlong distance of the F&M Sprint. While her Beyer figures may not be the sexiest, her class shines through clear as day with 7 victories in her last 8 starts.  The only defeat in that stretch coming at the hands (hooves) of Music Note, a filly who has a big shot in the Ladies’ Classic later in the afternoon on Friday.

Things are never quite so simple in horse racing, however. If they were, we’d all be billionaires by now instead of the type of people who at least glance at the tickets left at the automatic betting machines – hoping that some fool has discarded a winner that we can quickly put to good use recouping previous losses. Oh well…that’s probably just me.

While INFORMED DECISION definitely deserves the likely favoritism that will be bestowed upon her this weekend, it’s not like the other horses in this race are going to let her waltz away without a fight.

One runner who could be setup for a big time effort is VENTURA.  The 5-year-old daughter of Chester House will not be large price on the tote board, and could in fact wind up being favored if folks focus on the Beyer figures alone.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot of ground that separates these two classy ladies, which was probably best illustrated by their 1-2 finish in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, with only a head between them.

 

Since that effort in the Madison, VENTURA has actually improved her speed figures, whereas INFORMED DECISION regressed slightly (although keep in mind she’s continued to win – which is really all that matters).

Add to the equation a runner like SWEET HEARTH, who might get overlooked a bit by U.S. horseplayers due to her lack of established synthetic form.  You hear folks say all the time that turf form translates well into synthetic form.  Whether that’s true or not is an argument for another time.  What is without question though is that if you believe this notion for even a microsecond, how could you possibly pass on SWEET HEARTH? All she did was finish ahead of Goldikova last out at Longchamp in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1).  Yes, that Goldikova – the same on that defeated males in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup.

Speaking of beating males, that’s exactly what EVITA ARGENTINA did in the San Vicente back in February.  Guess what distance the San Vicente was?  You guessed it – 7 furlongs.  While considered a Kentucky Derby prep race, that San Vicente effort might’ve been more of a prep for this race instead.  Still, the daughter of Candy Ride would appear to have her work cut out for her here.

What about Sara Louise?  The infamous “last horse to defeat Rachel Alexandra” that we hear so much about.  She showed she can knock heads with the likes of Indian Blessing (ironically probably the 2nd highest ranking departure from the BC due to the “synthetics issue” along with Rachel Alexandra) losing by only a head to the champion filly last out.  If her workouts are any indication (specifically 4 furlongs in 47 and 4 on 10/23), she appears to have taken to the surface rather well. 

Even some of the longer shots on the board have much to like about them.  SEVENTH STREET is a “must use” in the exotics (9 for 9 in-the-money finishes lifetime).  SILVER SWALLOW was running the “race of her life” against Zenyatta in last year’s Vanity at Hollywood Park, and is probably a better horse now than she was then. 

Then there’s ALLICANSAYIS WOW.  The horse with arguably the coolest name of the entire field, and a very interesting runner cutting back from longer distances on the grass in her most recent efforts.  I’m hearing whispers she might have had a slight injury during workouts this morning, but this is a filly who has also run well against colts in her last two efforts. 

The horses who scare me the most here are the ones I haven’t mentioned.  FREE FLYING SOUL appears a bit outmatched on paper, but we all know what happens to handicappers the minute you say that about a horse.  GAME FACE is clearly capable yet didnt’ run particularly encouraging in her only synthetic effort at Presque Isle Downs.  ONLY GREEN is perhaps the most worrisome as she seems outclassed by a runner like SWEET HEARTH on paper.  Again, we all know how that story can go. 

I’ll be playing INFORMED DECISION and VENTURA in the exotics.  If I had to pick from one of these and my life depended on it, I’d probably opt for the former.  On my deeper tickets I might add SWEET HEARTH to the equation as I think she’s definitely capable.  Underneath I’ll add in SARA LOUISE, SEVENTH STREET, and ALLICANSAYISWOW (provided she’s okay to go).

Selections:

  • Informed Decision
  • Ventura
  • Sweet Hearth 

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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Continuing on with our advance selections for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup championship races this weekend at Santa Anita, we now turn to the Juvenile Fillies Turf  - a race which has a tendency to perplex many horseplayers due to the relative equality of the competitors and their lightly raced backgrounds.

I’ll be completely honest here and admit that I don’t have a strong opinion in the Juvenile Filles Turf.  I’m a bad enough turf handicapper as it is.  Adding “juvenile” fillies to the mix only makes this more of a crapshoot for me. 

The field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf looks like this (according to the advance entries released last week):

  • Champagne d’Oro
  • Connie and Michael
  • Dad’s Crazy
  • Elusive Galaxy
  • Hatheer
  • House of Grace
  • In the Slips
  • Jungle Tale
  • Junia Tepzia
  • La Nez
  • Lillie Langtry
  • Lisa’s Kitten
  • Potosina
  • Rose Catherine
  • Smart Seattle
  • Tapitsfly
  • Zilva

All things being equal, I’ll likely roll the dice a bit with my boy Graham Motion and hope that his combo of ZILVA and SMART SEATTLE can fire over the Santa Anita grass.  It would absolutely make my weekend to see Graham notch another Breeders’ Cup victory on his belt – especially after the retirement of the beloved Better Talk Now earlier in the year.  

Apart from that I thought that LILLIE LANGTRY appeared to have some solid European form coming into this race.  The question will of course be whether the daughter of Danehill Dancer wants to go the extra furlong here?  I see no reason to suspect that will be a problem, but it’s nonetheless something to consider.

The rest of the field seems fairly evenly matched, so hopefully the paddock and post parade impressions will help seperate these guys a bit. Suffice to say this is probably a spot to spread deep on your exotics.

If you’re a Medaglia d’Oro player (a recent innovation that just came into existence during this season), then perhaps you like Champagne d’Oro.  By the way, is it just me, or when you read this horse’s name do you not picture Christopher Walken doing his Saturday Night Live skit, announcing that some unsuspecting lady has “spilled their champ-ah-nya?”

 

If you’re a Beyer Figure handicapper, you’ll no doubt be attracted to ROSE CATHERINE and CONNIE AND MICHAEL.

If you’re a “recent form” player, then horses like HOUSE OF GRACE, IN THE SLIPS, JUNIA TEPZIA, and LA NEZ make sense.

If, like a Facebook friend (whose name ironically happens to be Lisa) you enjoy playing “cat themed” horse names, then perhaps LISA’S KITTEN is the horse for you?

Pick your poison here.  As I stated earlier, I’m a Graham Motion guy, so that’s where I’ll wind up.

Selections:

  • Zilva
  • Lillie Langtry
  • Smart Seattle

 Go get ‘em Graham!


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Breeders’ Cup Marathon Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Here’s the first in a series of closer looks we’ll take at the Breeders’ Cup championship races this weekend at Santa Anita.  As a disclosure, keep in mind that post positions and odds have yet to be set as of this writing and that all handicapping was done perusing the advance past performances released last week.  

I’ll be leaving for California right around the time the post position and morning line odds  information becomes finalized, so what follows are an extremely advanced interpretation of how things might go that is obviously subjected to substantial changes between now (Monday) and the upcoming weekend.

**********************************

Marathon, eh?  Maybe it’s just me, but when I hear the word “Marathon”, I imagine a long phalanx of Greek warriors pitching into an invading Persian host.  For most people, however,  the word invokes images of long, grueling racing action. To this end, the Breeders’ Cup marathon has been extended from a 1 1/2 mile affair in 2008 to a 1 3/4 mile affair this year. 

The field for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon sets up like this:

  • Black Astor
  • Cloudy’s Knight
  • Eldaafer
  • Father Time
  • Gangbuster
  • Man of Iron
  • Mastery
  • Muhannak
  • Nite Light
  • On Fire
  • Sir Dave

In looking for our own 2009 version of Miltiades the Younger (victor of the famed Battle of Marathon in 490 B.C.), two European horses leap off the page to me; MASTERY and FATHER TIME. 

Miltiades - victor of Marathon

Miltiades the Younger - Victor of the Battle of Marathon in 490 BC

MASTERY comes in hot off a victory in the ST. Leger Stakes at Doncaster on September 12.  The son of Sulamani has been the distance before over the grass, and now must prove he’s the same quality of horse racing over the Pro Ride.  He’ll be a short price for the hot Godolphin team, so if you’re looking for a big score to kick off championship weekend, you’ll need to beat this guy to do so.

FATHER TIME could make the most sense to players looking to beat the chalk right out of the gate.  The son of Dansili has earned a victory over a synthetic surface to break his maiden almost a year ago exactly, and has battled with MASTERY in both the Great Voltiguer and St. Leger Stakes overseas.

One thing is certain – we’ll put the notion that the Santa Anita Pro Ride will favor European turf horses to test immediately in the Marathon. 

As for the rest of the field, I think MAN OF IRON makes quite a bit of sense, although he’ll probably be overbet.  I also like the looks of the 9-year-old CLOUDY’S KNIGHT and the 5-year-old NITE LIGHT.  Don’t forget last year’s champion, MUHANNAK, is also returning to defend his crown, although he doesn’t appear to be in as sharp form as he was a year ago.

It would be infinitely easier to explain a possible trifecta ticket if we had the corresponding post positions set, but suffice to say I’ll be using both MASTERY and FATHER TIME on top of my tickets, with NITE LIGHT and CLOUDY’S KNIGHT underneath.  I’ll likely be adding MAN OF IRON to the bottom of the ticket as well.

Selections:

  • Mastery
  • Father Time
  • Nite Light 

Best of luck to all – make sure you start of your Breeders’ Cup wagers with a winner!


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

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