Belmont Selections

10 06 2011

Race 6: Grade 1 TVG Acorn

I Want My TVG

The TVG Acorn was placed at the front of the Pick 6 sequence, and this would appear to be at least partially due to the presence of  #2 Turbulent Descent.  The daughter of Congrats is 5 for 6 lifetime, losing only to Zazu last February (whom she promptly returned to defeat next out).  She won’t offer much value at 3/5, but she looks like a worthy favorite and would figure to be very tough to defeat in this race.  She’ll be a single on many Pick 6 tickets and for good reason.  Fellow handicapper Derek Simon has made a few counterpoints regarding the Acorn that are worth checking out, so for those of us singling on the heavy chalk we may find ourselves in Dire Straits attempting to get our money from nothing and our bets for free.

#4 It’s Tricky could be an interesting choice, assuming you are comfortable drawing a line through that last effort in the Gulfstream Oaks.  I think she may be a better horse than either #1 Her Smile or #3 Savvy Supreme, even if the latter can control things from the front end.   All of this sets up what appears to be a very chalky opening to the stakes exotics for the day, so why not spice things up a bit by adding in the longshot of the field underneath at 10/1?  #5 Victoria’s Wildcat is only a neck away from reeling off 4 straight wins since switching to the dirt, and has progressed through the Grade 3 ranks in the process.  She’s improving, has worked well, and at 10/1 I think she’s worth a shot in the underneath slots.

Exacta: 2/4,5

Trifecta: 2/4,5/3,4,5

Race 7: Grade 2 True North Handicap

If (like me) you consider chestnuts to be the most striking of thoroughbreds, the Grade 2 True North is the race for you with 6 of 8 horses sporting the dapper reddish-brown hue.  The formidable coupled entry of Anthony Dutrow runners breaking from the inside and outside (chestnuts both) have earned slight morning line favoritism at 2/1 and would appear to be logical horses you’d have to cover on the exotics.  #1 D’funnybone is best going another furlong, and #1A This Ones For Phil, while very fast, is lightly raced in the last year and a half.  I don’t think they can be considered slam dunks and I’ll make an attempt to beat them in my exacta/trifecta plays.

#3 Trappe Shot (also a chestnut) for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is my top choice here.  The son of Tapit was 2nd in the G1 Haskell last summer while routing, and has been dangerous on this track and at the distance.  I still think he could have a future going 2 turns as well, but for now the connections seem content on sprinting.  I’ll also take a chance with multiple G3 winner #5 Calibrachoa (not a chestnut) on top in search of slightly greater value.  He’s won four straight before the recent break but will have to bring his best to win this.  #2 Wildcat Brief (another chestnut) could round things out rolling late for and underneath placement.

Exacta: 3,5/1,3,5  

Trifecta: 3,5/1,3,5/1,2,3,5

Race 7: Grade 2 Woody Stephens

There is no Woody Stephens, only Zuul!!!

Looking over the Woody Stephens field, I couldn’t help but remember the line in Ghostbusters just before the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man lumbered his way on screen.  ”The traveller has been chosen!”  That would seem to be a fitting euphemism for this year’s race, given the names of  two logical win candidates in this field.  Unfortunately, they are the top choices on the morning line.

#1 Travellin Man cuts back to the 7 furlong distance that he prevailed at in the G2 Swale.  Of particular interest for this race is his propensity to finish ahead of #6 Little Drama in two of his recent starts (though also note he was defeated by #7 J J’s Lucky Train last out).

James Jerkens will send out #5 Arch Traveller, who made a significant speed figure improvement in his last start over the Belmont dirt.  Bounce players may be looking for a regression, but the son of Sky Mesa has won his last three races that did not include the likes of Dialed In or Shackleford.  We’ll go ahead and make him top selection for now, but will keep a close eye on the tote board to see which travel-themed entry gives us the best value.

As for #6 Little Drama, like the name implies he is capable of making things interesting, but he seems more likely to settle for an underneath placement.   A horse that might be being overlooked here is the outside runner #7 J J’s Lucky Train.  As previously noted , he’s finished ahead of the favorite in the last effort, and has also beaten another of today’s rivals, #2 Justin Phillip (who is still seeking his first stakes victory).  I’ll be adding this one to my exotics and hoping for a possible price.

Exacta: 1,5/1,5,6,7

Trifecta: 1,5/1,5,7/1,5,6,7

 Pick 4 (Races 8 through 11): 1,5,7/1,2,5/4,7 /1,5,6,9,12

Race 9: Grade 1 Just A Game

Outside of the contentious feature race of the day, the Just A Game may be the best betting race of the sequence.  It’s certainly among the most difficult to decipher.  Many times handicappers will search for a key race to serve as a barometer when measuring closely ranked contenders.  While we don’t have that here, we do have what might be considered a key horse, as 6 of the 9 runners show a recent tilt against Never Retreat, with varying degrees of success.

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to #2 Aviate, who skipped over the Churchill surface on Derby day to win her first U.S. race (losing her U.S. debut to, you guessed it, Never Retreat).  The Churchill turf was listed as firm that day, but I think there was a little give in the ground and this daughter of Dansili would likely enjoy a little moisture if the heavens decide to open up.  She has trained over the Belmont turf within the last week and certainly is a serious contender you have to respect in the exotics, but as far as single race wagers go this race looks competitive enough to try and beat her at a price.

#1 Gypsy’s Warning heads out for trainer Graham Motion after a very disappointing 7th place finish in the G2 Jenny Wiley in mid-April.  Perhaps she just wasn’t fond of the Keeneland grass?  If you draw a line through that race, she’s a Grade 1 winner at the mile distance, although that was out at Hollywood.  A win for Graham Motion here would be totally mag (gypsy for magnificent), and 5/1 is a fair price in my opinion.   The rest of the field has taken turns beating each other and competing with Never Retreat, making them very difficult to separate beyond these top two.

I thought #5 Strike The Bell was a little interesting here at 12/1 with the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard.  The daughter of Mizzen Mast seems to run her best at the mile distance and seems to do okay on the Belmont turf.  #6 Fantasia and #4 C.S. Silk are also logical contenders at decent odds.  #3 Amen Hallelujah is a near lock to hit the board, but I can’t play to her win as she hasn’t prevailed since last February.

Exacta: 1,2,5 (box)

Trifecta: 1/2,3,5/2,3,4,5,6,7

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap 

There’s a decidedly royal theme when looking over the field for the The Manhattan – which is fitting for a race marking the return of the U.S. turf king #4 Gio Ponti.  Gio will have to overcome the much ballyhooed Dubai bounce to prevail, but the 6/5 morning line favorite has been stateside for a while now showing 4 local works over the Belmont turf.  He’s thrived here before, winning 5 races and finishing in the exacta in all 8 attempts.  Just keep in mind that stranger things have happened as Gio lost this race last year to stablemate Winchester in a similar setup (prompting yours truly to declare Winchester “a repeater”).

To be fair, the rest of the field doesn’t look particularly difficult to overcome. We don’t have a contender coming in with form quite like Winchester did last year, but you may want to think about adding in #7 Prince Will I Am as a logical contender for top honors.  The son of Victory Gallop has quietly had a decent 2011 campaign with a victory at the G2 level and a respectable 5th in the G1 Turf Classic.

The other contenders that appear to have an outside chance include #6 Viscount Nelson, who would be more attractive to me if he hadn’t raced in Ireland as recently as 6/3, and #3 Windward Islands who appears to be a logical horse to use underneath in the exotics and could be a Falklands style thorn in the side of the other royals.  Lastly, for the feel-good story of the year, I’ll try to find a way to use #2 Bold Hawk on the bottom of my tickets.

Exacta: 4,7/3,4,6,7

Trifecta: 4/3,6,7/2,3,5,6,7

Race 11:  G1 Belmont Stakes

And down the stretch we come.  Every year it seems the end of the Triple Crown season gets here faster than before.  What a season it’s been for bettors as well.  Animal Kingdom and Shackleford lighting up the tote board in the Derby and Preakness?  Favorites failing in both legs so far?  One would expect that trend may continue here in the final 2 furlongs of the Belmont – a race which has not been particularly kind to Derby and/or Preakness winners in recent history.  That said, I do believe that #9 Animal Kingdom and #12 Shackleford have established themselves as the cream of the crop thus far.  Animal Kingdom in particular should get the Belmont distance without any trouble, but he’s going to need to be a bit closer up than he was in the Preakness as the Belmont does not traditionally setup well for a late closer.  Somewhere around midpack would be ideal, I would think.

Shack-attack drew fairly poorly to the outside, which means he may have to run a step or two quicker towards the first turn than they’d prefer.  His best chance would be to get clear and then try to slow things down, I would think.   As for the “world’s biggest Shackleford fan” here at home with me (my wife)?  She thinks he doesn’t have a good chance to win here due to the distance, and I’d tend to agree with her.  I’m still going to cover him in the exotics, but I’m definitely leaning elsewhere with my top selections.  As for the Animal?  Big chance – but the odds are too low to get excited about.

Looking elsewhere in the field, I thought #1 Master of Hounds was a logical horse to consider adding in at a square price of 10/1 on the morning line.  He finished respectably in the Derby (5th) and like the favorite should be able to handle the distance without too much difficulty.  I haven’t heard much about him this week though, and coupled with Animal Kingdom would make my selections a tad closer-heavy for the moment.

#6 Nehro is a fairly obvious contender to include on my plays.  To be honest, I’d probably make the fiddling emperor top choice if not for slight concerns I have about the distance and with respect to jockey Cory Nakatani’s ability to get a prime trip out of him.  That move he made in the Derby to challenge Shackleford looked like it was going to win the day, and a similar trip gets him first jump on Shackleford as the field enters the stretch, which should give him a big shot.  There’s not much value to be had though at 4/1.

I’m also going to add in #5 Brilliant Speed as the bomber play for my tickets.  Admittedly it’s a wing and a prayer, but I do love me some Dynaformers and I’d like to see trainer Tom Albertrani take a Triple Crown race like I thought he might do with Odysseus last year.  Hopefully, as has been rumored, he’ll be closer up early on and not just another late running closer in my selections.

Obviously then, if recent history is any indication, your likely winners will be the horses I’m not playing, in particular #2 Stay Thirsty, #4 Santiva, or #10 Mucho Macho Man.  I could make a case for these guys as well, but you know the drill – can’t pick ‘em all.

Exacta/Superfecta: 1,5,6,9,12 (box)


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The cream rises to the top

13 06 2010

Following a turbulent spring in which the 3-year-old division never really sorted itself out the way many of us had hoped – this Saturday provided an opportunity to establish a firm sense of where things stood among the ranks of older females and males.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra had been the subject of intense scrutiny and conjecture – as friends and foes alike pondered what had happened to the killer instinct with which the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro had dispatched her challengers over the course of her previous campaign.

Struggling in the stretch against the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle – who while good horses certainly did not appear to be “Rachel beaters” on paper headed into their contests with the champ – had left a foul taste in many folks mouths.  Tensions were running so high that there were calls for her to be retired – and even exercise jockey Dominic Terry wound up being replaced by Steve Asmussen following some sort of disagreement (Terry, it must be noted, was a fan favorite who routinely conversed over the internet with Rachel’s fans – so this author was sad to see him removed).

Then, of course, there was the looming specter of the “figure 8″ – the singular piece of equipment that had caused so much grief as it seemed that Asmussen was trying to alter the way in which Rachel Alexandra responded to the bit as well as when and where she would make her move while racing.

As noted by Sid Fernando – Rachel Alexandra did not wear the figure 8 when sent to post yesterday for the G2 Fleur de Lis.  The result, as may have been expected, was that the filly ran off the screen again, invoking memories of her victories last year in the Mother Goose, Haskell, and Kentucky Oaks.

While watching the race live, it may not have seemed such a foregone conclusion to her throngs of fans.  It looked for a moment like a repeat of what we had seen against Unrivaled Belle and Zardana.  Rachel collared Jessica is Back and moved to the front, but then Distinctive Dixie seemed poised to pounce on her.

It was then that something peculiar happened.  Rather than allow a “lesser” horse to surge past her as she had done both times this year, Rachel seemed to remember who she was, digging down deep to procure a semblance of that greatness.  She pulled away brilliantly in the stretch, and with a furlong to go the races was as good as over.

Full results chart from Equibase

The final margin put her at 10 1/2 lengths in front of Distinctive Dixie, crossing the wire in the 1 1/8 mile race in 1:48.78.   The distance and time are not insignificant as just 4 races later many of the top older males in the land would go the same route in the G1 Stephen Foster.

Comparing the two races directly is a bit difficult to do – as the Stephen Foster featured a full field of 11 runners who were quite comfortable setting  a much slower pace early on (:24.50 and :48.72 as opposed to the :23.93 and :47.25 of the Fleur de Lis).  Still, it’s noteworthy that when Blame stopped the clock after prevailing in the Stephen Foster, he did so almost half a second slower than Rachel at 1:49.37.

Take nothing away from Blame’s performance though.  He absolutely devoured the highly regarded Battle Plan in the stretch, overcoming a highly disadvantageous post position draw in the 11 hole in the process.

We noted headed into Preakness day that we thought Blame was a serious race horse who belonged in the discussion for the best older male in the handicap division – and this performance in the Stephen Foster clearly makes him a horse to keep an eye on as the season progresses towards the Breeders’ Cup championships this fall.

Of course these weren’t the only two horses making  strong appearances.  Thanks to imperfections of racing’s calendar you also had Rail Trip winning the G2 California Stakes at Hollywood Park.  Additionally, there was Life at Ten staging the upset over the aforementioned Unrivaled Belle in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, and Miss Singhsix prevailing in the G3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park (a race that you would be excused for thinking may not have existed, considering the total lack of coverage it received).

As if all this action were not enough – there’s still the undefeated super mare Zenyatta today at Hollywood Park in the G1 Vanity!  That’s right – the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and widely regarded greatest horse on the planet.  While it’s a bit odd to see such a horse running on a Sunday, I think it goes without saying that we’ll take our Zenyatta races any way we can get them.

Here’s hoping that advertising and marketing execs have been paying attention whenever the spine-tingling Breeders’ Cup commercials featuring Zenyatta’s ’09 Classic victory air – they are precisely what the sport needs!

Now, as ESPNs Jeremy Plonk has rightly pointed out – if only we could get all these horses together in a race (or two) – rather than spread out across the nation in races that tend to cannibalize the importance of each.

While I understand the criticism of the column linked to in the above statement – the one benefit of having so many races for the same division strung out across so many tracks on the same weekend may have been the reappearance of Rachel Alexandra.  That may have been exactly what she needed.

I still don’t think she’s ready to throw down with the likes of a Zenyatta – but it felt darn good to see her pull away in the stretch and “stick her tongue out” at the competition.

Now there’s only one thing left to do – get Zenyatta home on top in the Vanity to run that unbeaten streak to 17 for 17.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Blame, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Belmont State of Mind

6 06 2010

“I’m the new Sinatra and since I made it here I can make it anywhere.  Yeah they love me everywhere.”

Jasmine Villegas - who upset fans and horses alike with her god awful singing at Belmont on Saturday.

The above statement is contained in the opening lyrics of the Jay-Z/Alicia Keys hit “Empire State of Mind” – which in an ironic twist replaced the traditional singing of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”  on Saturday prior to the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.  With the original artists unable to attend, teen sensation Jasmine Villegas was called on  to offer her vocal skills to the crowd.  The result, at least from what we saw on the television broadcast, was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

How bad was it?

The performance was so brutal that ABC actually cut away from the unfolding catastrophe in order to go to commercial break.  A merciful decision that no doubt spared the eyeballs of countless viewers from being jabbed with writing utensils or other blunt objects.  Upon returning to the coverage, it was suggested that the beached-whale-with-a-hernia sounding notes had actually upset Make Music for Me (rather ironic, given the horse’s name).

Look, I don’t mean to be too harsh (especially towards a 16-year-old) – as I’m all for trying new things in an effort to connect more with the next generation. It’s just that the performance by Villegas actually set a new standard of “bad” for me – replacing such cherished moments as William Hung’s initial American Idol audition and Roseanne Barr’s rendition of the National Anthem.  What I find absolutely unbelievable are the celebrity chasers out there calling the performance “brilliant”. Either those pieces were written ahead of time or it proves that some folks are so obsessed with celebs that no matter what they do it will be referred to as brilliant.

The sub par effort  by the “star” Villegas may have been a bad omen for the heavy favorite in the Belmont as well; Ice Box.   The son of Pulpit would never quite get unwound in the stretch, finishing completely off the board in 8th place.  Nick Zito mentioned that we “hadn’t seen the real Ice Box today” in post race interviews.  Indeed – just as we hadn’t heard the real “Empire State of Mind” either.  I’m sure the pedestrian opening half-mile fractions set by First Dude didn’t help the situation – and of course it’s always possible that Ice Box was still sorting out in his head whether Villegas effort qualified as music or whether NYRA had been sacrificing moose live over the PA system in some sort of shocking cult ritual.  In that sense, it’s understandable that he didn’t show up with his best stuff.

Villegas and Ice Box weren’t the only ones turning in crappy performances though.   If I’m going to be a harsh critic, it’s only fair that I do the same with my own selections.  I didn’t have the winner of the Belmont anywhere on my radar going into the race.  In fact, I had called Drosselmeyer a “money burner” in a conversation with a work buddy earlier in the week (in my defense, Drosselmeyer had lost as favorite in 4 of his 8 lifetime races coming into the Belmont, so the description seemed to fit for the moment).  He and Uptowncharlybrown were complete toss-outs for me that I expected would be overbet at the windows.  I gave them no chance.

Full Results Chart from Equibase

We had noted earlier in the week that the Belmont needed a hero. Thankfully, Drosselmeyer was not affected by the off-key tone and butchered notes.  The son of Distorted Humor sports German sounding nomenclature inspired by The Nutcracker (“Herr Drosselmeyer”), so perhaps we should not have been surprised?  It is the Teutons after all who celebrate the musical talents of David Hasselhoff and persist in keeping reruns of ALF culturally relevant.

None of that previous history mattered as Drosselmeyer entered the post parade.  He looked absolutely regal with his chestnut coat showing a fine glow and his ears perked up suggesting readiness for a top performance.  If I had spent just a few more moments focusing on the trouble he had encountered in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Dwyer Stakes (Grade 2′s all), perhaps I could’ve cashed in on his 13-1 goodness?

Instead, I was stuck ripping up my First Dude and Ice Box themed tickets.  In that sense, I seem to share the fate of Villegas and Ice Box – an utter failure on Belmont Saturday!

But wait – there’s more!!!

Did anyone out there actually get to witness the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap?  Probably not, considering it wasn’t televised live anywhere.  I’m thinking there may have been a ripple in space-time that has opened up a series of tangent universes out there – where every conceivable possibility for the race has played itself out.  We seem to exist in one of  those bubbles in which an improbable outcome took place.  Winchester, an off the charts longshot, somehow managed to upset a defending 2009 Eclipse Award winner in Gio Ponti to win his second race in a row – proving that yes, definitively, Winchester is a repeater.

I don’t know who dropped the ball on this one, but to have an entire crew from ABC/ESPN on location covering the Belmont, and then to pay absolutely no attention to a Grade 1 turf race featuring the return of the top U.S. turf horse from the previous year?

Epic fail – perhaps even more so than Villegas, Ice Box, or my own god awful selections.

So where does the weekend leave us?  Just as expected, really – with more questions than answers.   I don’t think we have a clear picture of the 3-year-old division even now.  I’d still lean towards Lucky as the overall leader – but Drosselmeyer and Fly Down have moved into the discussion by finishing 1, 2 in the Belmont.  I really thought my boy First Dude was in good shape after the opening half mile – and I’d suspect we’ll see some more of him this summer as well – provided the dude abides.

Hopefully though we’ve seen the last of sub-par musical performances aimed at gen-next…and equally awful handicapping selections.

Hats off to the connections of Drosselmeyer for their big Belmont victory.  I sure hope SOMEBODY out there managed to take down that Pick 4 for $167k!!!!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown

Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Belmont needs a hero

30 05 2010

With one week to go until the 2010 Belmont Stakes, it’s time to get back in the saddle and start focusing on the race at hand.  Gone are the Derby and Preakness winners in Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky – and gone is most of the national media attention due to the absence of a Triple Crown being on the line.

With the 3-year-old division still essentially up for grabs – and with the bulk of the summer racing action yet to come – might the time be right for a colt to rise to the occasion?  Despite the lack of star power, the race itself could setup to be very intriguing.  The place horses from each of the first two Classics is back – Ice Box and First Dude.  Add into the mix dangerous looking runners like Fly Down and Stately Victor, and fan favorites Drosselmeyer and Uptowncharlybrown and suddenly you have the recipe for a pretty good betting race.

Here we take a humorous look at the plight of racing on the eve of the Belmont.  In this clip, an effeminate Setsuko plays the role of Otsu to Ice Box’s samurai – explaining the desperate situation and pleading with the son of Pulpit to return from the race triumphant.

It’s not quite Hitler and Odysseus – but few things are.

Enjoy!

Note:  If for some reason Youtube takes the above video down – which would be par for the course with my creations – there’s a backup version saved here on Daily Motion.

In case you’re wondering about the whole Otsu/Setsuko thing – no, I haven’t made one of my trademark faux pas and confused the gender of an effeminately named male again.  Think of it as a convenient (for this video clip) play on the fact that Setsuko is usually considered a female name in Japan.  I should also point out that no – I do not quite subscribe to the sentiments of Otsu/Setsuko in this video clip as I feel that Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down, and Stately Victor are all capable of winning the race.

Which brings us to the most important part of the post – our first chance to gauge public opinion and see where the loyalties are lining up for the big race on Saturday.  You know the drill – sound off like you’ve got a pair!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Zenyatta’s return highlights BIG weekend of racing action

9 10 2009

Another weekend is upon us.  Is it just me, or does this seem to happen like clockwork every 7 days?  Very strange.  You’ll forgive me for drifting here and there as we’ve got twelve big races to cover in what promises to be an exciting weekend of racing.  The biggest (and baddest) name on the entries is obviously Zenyatta – the undefeated mare attempting to equal the feat of Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive start of her career. 

Here’s a quick roundup of the major races being run at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet.  I’ve organized them by order of post time so that they flow in sequence – which means we’ll be bouncing between the tracks a bit here. 

Belmont – Race 4 – The Jamaica Handicap (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – 2:35 (ET)

We kick things off with the 60th running of the Jamaica H.   The two horses that appear to have the biggest shot here are #2 COURAGEOUS CAT and #6 TAKE THE POINTS.  The latter we know from the Preakness earlier in the year and his victory in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 8.  COURAGEOUS CAT is the horse I’ve got to take here.  Despite being the morning line favorite at 2/1, he might wind up offering slightly better value if TAKE THE POINTS takes a lot of money at the windows. The son of Storm Cat is also named for one of my favorite childhood cartoon stars.  Most folks don’t remember Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, but I do.  #3 GRASSY looks like a runner with a big shot in here as well.  I could also make a case for adding in #7 MR SANDMAN and #1 STRAIGHT STORY on the bottom of the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #2 Courageous Cat (2/1*)
  • #6 Take the Points (5/2)
  • #3 Grassy (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 5 – The Woodford (Grade 3) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – 3:23 (ET)

We visit Keeneland for the first time today for the 13th running of The Woodford.  I’m not much of a turf sprint handicapper, and I know it’s one of my weaker areas, so we’ll keep this one simple.  I like #2 MR. NIGHTLINGER in here, despite the 2/1 odds. The son of Indian Charlie has not had quite the banner year many of us expected to have, with only 1 victory thus far in 5 starts.  One of the main reasons I’m backing him though is that he’s got talent and shows early speed – something which can be noteworthy from time to time at Keeneland.  He will be tested though, as #7 SILVER TIMBER looks like a good one for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Prime Timber is the most likely to get first run at MR. NIGHTLINGER if he can’t hold on out in front.  #6 DIE DATE is another horse worth considering in this field.  He gives you a consistently even effort every time out, although he may be better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets.  Other horses worth ticket consideration would appear to be #5 BULLET FROM ABROAD and #8 FORT PRADO. 

Selections:

  • #2 Mr. Nightlinger (2/1*)
  • #7 Silver Timber (5/2)
  • #6 Due Date (7/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 6 – The Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs – 4:00 (ET)

We stay in Keeneland for the 29th running of the TCA.  #8 INFORMED DECISION is the overwhelming favorite on the morning line at 3/5.  While that might be cause to try and beat her, the daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven deadly (3 for 3) at Keeneland in her career.  She’s also won all 5 of her synthetic starts.  Just keep that in mind if you try to take her down.  The most logical contender would seem to be #6 CARLSBAD, who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delmar last out. Tyler Baze is the listed rider, meaning he’s left the friendly confines of California.  There’s enough value here on the morning line (5/1) to warrant stong consideration. #5 BOLD UNION is another interesting runner who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delaware.  The Dixie Union filly has only raced once over the synthetics, and it was nothing to write home about, but she does have speed and that can be a big factor in sprint races. I like the two “Ashley” horses (#1 AWESOME ASHLEY and #4 PIOUS ASHLEY) enough to include them on the bottom of my tickets, and I might take a chance underneath with #3 PORTE BONHEUR as well, as she’s proven she can handle the synthetics at Woodbine last November. 

Selections:

  • #8 Informed Decision (3/5*)
  • #6 Carlsbad (5/1)
  • #5 Bold Union (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 7 – The First Lady (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 4:35 (ET)

You know, we just love Keeneland so much that we’ll hang around for another race, whaddya think?  The First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 1 mile over the turf.  #5 FOREVER TOGETHER is currently listed atop most rankings of oder turf females in the U.S., and will be the morning line favorite at even odds.  The daughter of Belong to Me was absolutely dominating at times last year, but has had some trouble putting together consistent victories this year.  If her current pattern of running 1st, 2nd – 1st, 2nd continues, she’s due for a victory.  If only it were that simple.  Working in her favor will be the fact that she gets a little pace to run into with #4 TIZAQUEENA and #9 SUPERIOR STORM on her flanks.  That should help her have a big race.  #6 MY PRINCESS JESS and #8 DIAMONDRELLA are two runners who could also get good trips and who would obviously offer more value on the tote board.  At least work them into your exotics.

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (3/5*)
  • # 6 My Princess Jess (6/1)
  • #4 Tizaqueena (12/1)

 

Belmont – Race 8 – The Frizette (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 4:43 (ET)

It’s back to New York for the 62nd running of the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies. #3 NONA MIA looks like the horse to beat here coming off an impressive 12 length score out to break her maiden.  Being a daughter of Empire Maker, I’m not as concerned about how she’ll handle the distance as perhaps I ought to be. #4 AWESOME MARIA should have a say as to how things turn out as well.  The daughter of Maria’s Mon is already a Grade 2 winner having defeated several of today’s rivals in the Matron on September 19.  The rest of the field looks fairly even behind these two.  #6 FRANNY FREUD, #5 TOUCHING BEAUTY, and #2 DEVIL MAY CARE all came up as having chances to hit the board based on my own personal handicapping methods, as did #7 WORSHIP THE MOON.  I’ll probably box the top two choices on top and then take all of these guys on the bottom of the trifecta.  That’s my initial plan at least.  We’ll see if se can get a good look at them in the post parade to narrow it down a bit more.  I went with TOUCHING BEAUTY as my 3rd choice by a slim margin – mostly due to the fact that she was sired by Tapit. 

Selections:

  • #3 Nonna Mia (5/2)
  • #4 Awesome Maria (2/1*)
  • #5 Touching Beauty (5/1)

 

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree)  – Race 4 – The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – 2:00 (PT)

Time to head out west to the lovely Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita for the 33rd running of the Yellow Ribbon.  The two big names in this field are #1 MAGICAL FANTASY and #7 VISIT.  MAGICAL FANTASY exits 3 consecutive victories, including two at the Grade 1 level in the John C Mabee and the Gamely.  This is clearly one of the better turf mares on the California circuit and she should be respected as such. VISIT is a 4-year-old that has always seemed on the cusp of greatness, yet has a tendency to run for minor slices of the pie.  Garrett Gomez will get acquainted once again with the daughter of Oasis Dream , who should be firing at about the same time as MAGICAL FANTASY.  This could be a good battle between these two runners in the stretch.  As for the rest of the field, #4 BLACK MAMBA is a dangerous runner who can jump up and run a big one from time to time. Trainer John Sadler might have her primed for a big effort this weekend.  I’m also familiar enough with both #2 LEMONETTE and #3 LEMON CHIFFON that I’ll probably include them on the bottom of my tickets as well.  If I’m not mistaken, LEMON CHIFFON was one of the horses I hit at the NTRA Handicapping Contest last fall in Las Vegas. 

Selections:

  • #1 Magical Fantasy (8/5*)
  • #7 Visit (5/1)
  • #4 Black Mamba (5/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 8 – The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 5:10 (ET)

Now we head back to Kentucky for more 2-year-old action in the Breeders’ Futurity.  The colt I’m most anxious to see here is #2 BACKTALK.  The son of Smarty Jones had won 3 in a row to start his career before drawing the 12 hole last out in the Hopeful.  Will he like the synthetics at Keeneland?  Well, if his bullet workout there on October 5 is any indication, he out to handle the surface switch just fine.  That being said, I’m going with #8 AKENITE as my top choice.  Why?  Well, the son of Yes it’s True will offer some value at the windows, and might be overlooked.  Plus, look at that last race where he lost to Dublin and Aspire.  Those two are the top choices for the Champagne, run just 5 minutes later at Belmont (and coming up next in our selections).  If those two are among the best in the young and developing division, then that could be a race to key on.   Maybe if they don’t leave him with as much to do and go for a more even effort?  It’s worth a chance is all i’m saying.  #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is a logical contender as well, coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Best Pal and the Delmar Futurity.  I have some questions about how this one will handle the distance, but I like that they’ve trained her at 7 furlongs following a game effort at that same distance. Note that Tyler Baze will also be aboard this runner, so he’s got a couple of potentially live mounts on the card.  A horse that might get overlooked and is in all honesty probably compromised by their starting position is #14 STATELY VICTOR.  Don’t be surprised if this son of Ghostzapper goes on to become the best horse of this field in due time. Whether he shows that on Saturday not is a bit of question mark, but I think he’s worth at least including underneath.   There’s plenty of other directions you could go here, depending on which horse you may already be familiar with or have developed some affection for.

Selections:

  • #8 Akenite (5/1)
  • #2 Backtalk (4/1*)
  • #7 Make Music for Me (6/1)

 

Belmont – Race 9 – The Champagne (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 5:15 (ET)

We head back to New York for the final time this afternoon for the Champagne.  If you start reading this and feel as though you’re having deja vu, don’t worry – we did just talk about some of these runners.  #5 DUBLIN comes into the race as the victor of the Hopeful at Saratoga.  In that race he held on to deny #3 ASPIRE, who will get the benefit of an extra furlong in his attempt to turn the tables on his rival.  Don’t I kind of have to go with a horse named ASPIRE since this is The Aspiring Horseplayer?  That’s just too strong a vibe for me to pass up.  In all honesty, I rate these two extremely close to one another, and while if my life depended on it, I’d probably side with DUBLIN, I”ll take a chance and go with ASPIRE here.  The horse that might be the x-factor here is #6 HOMEBOYKRIS for Rick Dutrow Jr.  #4 DISCREETLY MINE also rates a chance here as this son of Mineshaft did run well against Dutrow’s other prized possession in the 2-year-old division thus far, D’Funnybone.

Selections:

  • #3 Aspire (3/1)
  • #5 Dublin (8/5*)
  • #6 Homeboykris (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 9 – The Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) -5:45 (ET)

The finale of the marquee races at Keeneland for Saturday is the 24th running of the Shadwell Turf Mile.  I’ll consider taking a chance here with #9 COURT VISION, despite the fact that the son of Gulch has not won a race since the Hollywood Derby last November. He’s running for Dutrow now, which in itself is cause for improvement, and adds the blinkers back on, which he’s had off the last 3 races.  Call me crazy but I think this helps keep him focused in the stretch and gives him a chance for the upset.  The monster of the race though is #7 JUSTENUFFHUMOR.  The son of Distorted Humor exits 6 consecutive victories, including the Bernard Baruch Handicap last out at Saratoga.  If he’s good enough to beat my boy Cowboy Cal, he’s good enough to take this field. #5 BATTLE OF HASTINGS is a horse I’ve given out several times here successfully, so you know he’ll be on my tickets again.

Selections:

  • #7 Justenuffhumor (5/2*)
  • #9 Court Vision (7/2)
  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 6 – The Oak Tree Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 3:00 (PT)

Things get a little bit calmer as we head out west to stay to finish up the day, beginning with the Oak Tree Mile.  Notice that there’s a theme here today where I talk about a horse in one race, and he shows up in the next.  #9 COWBOY CAL comes into the Mile having finished 2nd in the Bernard Baruch.  There’s something about this guy that I really admire.  He’s a gamer – and I think he could be in store for a big effort.  He’ll need to avoid a speed duel with #7 MONTERREY JAZZ though, and ought to press the pace from 2nd to give himself his best chance.  Coming off the pace will be #10 WHATSTHESCRIPT and #4 GLOBAL HUNTER, who each have big shots in here as well.  I’m going to stick with my COWBOY CAL on top, with GLOBAL HUNTER running big for 2nd.  WHATSTHESCRIPT has a tendency to run 3rd or 4th, and I’ll use him on the bottom.  Do give some props to the filly, #8 ALLICANSAYIS WOW – as she steps up to take on boys again.  She ran well for 2nd in the Delmar Mile, and finished ahead of Lethal Heat, a horse who (you guessed it) will come up again later in our picks.  I’d also keep MONTERREY JAZZ around in your tickets, being as that he is the speed of the speed.

Selections:

  • #9 Cowboy Cal (2/1*)
  • #4 Global Hunter (8/1)
  • #10 Whatsthescript (5/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 7 – The Goodwood (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – 3:30 (PT)

The feature race of the day is the final major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic – the 28th running of the Goodwood.  Wht a race we’ve got in store.  #4 COLONEL JOHN tries to get back to his winning ways on the main track following a disappointing 5th place finish in the Pacific Classic.  I thought the son o f Tiznow had a horrible trip that day and am expecting the real COLONEL JOHN to show up again this weekend.  He was, after all, my Derby selection back in 2008.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings the hot longshot winner #3 RICHARD’S KID in for the Goodwood with visions of the Classic dancing in his head.  Was that last win in the Pacific Classic a fluke, or has Baffert turned this guy into a top runner?  I wouldn’t let Bob Baffert burn you twice, if you know what I mean.  Of course, there are also some runners in here both seeking to regain respect and who are favorites of many fans.  #2 TIAGO is one class=”mceItemHidden”> of the few remnants of the talented 2007 crop of 3-year-olds that produced Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Tiago always was in their shadows, and despite ome success as a 4-year-old and some sexy Beyer figures on his resume, he’s only won $24,000 in 2 starts this year.  If he comes back like his old self, he actually makes some sense here.  This is the same team, remember, that gave the world Zenyatta (and Giacomo).  #5 TRES BORRACHOS still has the coolest name in all of racing (“3 drunks”).  And of course, there’s that guy that won the Kentucky Derby at 50/1, #10 MINE THAT BIRD.  How great would it be to see the son of Birdstone come back and run a big race?  He’s been on synthetics before – hell, he’s won on ‘em before, so if his throat surgery has got him back to the way he was this spring, he could make some noise here in his 1st start against older horses.   I haven’t even had a chance to mention #9 INFORMED (son of Tiznow), #6 MONZANTE (winner of the 2008 Eddie Read), and #7  PARADING (disappointing 4th in the Pacific Classic last out).  This looks like a great race – hopefully a glimmer of things to come on Breeders’ Cup weekend this November.

Selections:

  • #4 Colonel John (3/1*)
  • #4 Richard’s Kid (8/1)
  • #10 Mine That Bird (7/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree – Race 8 – The Lady’s Secret (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 4:00 (PT)

We wind up the day with the return of the undefeated Zenyatta – the super star of west coast thoroughbred racing.  I’ve covered this race already for the NTRA, and you’re welcome to read my assessment there.  The biggest question we’ll be looking to answer won’t come until after the race, once trainer John Shirreffs has had a chance to see how ZENYATTA comes out of the race.  That will ultimately determine whether she runs against boys on the Classic on Saturday, or defends her crown against the Ladies’ on Friday in the Breeders’ Cup.  Last time we saw her, ZENYATTA was flying home like a rocket towards a desperate photo finish with longshot #8 ANAABA’S CREATION.  This race could play out in similar fashion without an abundance of speed signed on.  Also note the presence of #1 COCOA BEACH, who in case folks forgot ran 2nd behind ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last year here at Santa Anita.  Hopefully we can get a good gauge on how she’s shaping up heading into the championships as well.  Stablemate #4 LIFE IS SWEET draws the misfortune of facing the monster that is ZENYATTA once again, after earlier reports that she would be pointing towards a turf race.  Then there’s #6 LETHAL HEAT, who just ran against the boys last weekend in the Cal Cup Classic (finishing 2nd).  She comes right back in what should be her final tune up for the Ladies’ Classic as well.  I think the class of ZENYATTA is too much for ‘em all in the end.  Look for ANAABA”S CREATIOn or COCOA BEACH underneath in second.  I’ll give LETHAL HEAT a big shot to hit the board as well along with LIFE IS SWEET.

Selections:

  • #5 Zenyatta (2/5*)
  • #8 Anaaba’s Creation (12/1)
  • #1 Cocoa Beach (6/1)

 

Whew – I need a break after all that ‘capping.  :)

Best of luck to all – and don’t forget about Icon Project this Sunday in the Spinster at Keeneland.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Colonel John, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Mine That Bird, Santa Anita, Tiago, Zenyatta

Sea the Stars cements legacy; Summer Bird and the Iceman winneth

5 10 2009

“Can’t keep my eyes from the circling skies. Tongue-tied and twisted just an earth-bound misfit, I.”  – Pink Floyd “Learning to Fly”

 

For thoroughbred racing fans in the United States, you might be excused if you’ve been a bit late to catch onto the Irish-bred phenomenon that is Sea the Stars.  The sensational colt has taken the European racing world by storm in recent months by winning the Epsom Derby and the 2000 Guineas in dominating style.  It’s been hard to get good glimpses of him though, especially this past weekend when he added the world’s most prestigious turf race, the $5.8 million Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, to his resume in convincing style. 

Ridden by Mick Kinane, the son of Cape Cross began rather slowly, but wound up putting his talent on display and powering home to a two length victory over the 6-year-old Youmzain.  Cavalryman, who broke from the extreme outside finished 3rd, with 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf champion Conduit in 4th.  Youmzain has now been defeated by Dylan Thomas, Zarkava, and Sea the Stars while running for 2nd in the last 3 runnings of the Arc.  According to trainer Mick Channon, Youmzain will “be here next year” if all goes as planned.

 

 

So why was this victory so important?  It seems as though apart from the diehard fans of the sport (and most of us reading this probably consider ourselves “diehards”), not many folks cared that much here in the U.S.  The race barely received any attention here.  Granted, the post time (10:15 ET) was a bit early for anyone in the U.S. living on the west coast.  Across the pond, however, folks are whispering not just that Sea the Stars is good, but that he might be that good.  You know what I’m talking here – the kind of good where you start to wonder where a horse ranks among the all-time greats?

Consider for a moment how unique that is.  English racing fans don’t seem the type to me that would jump up at the chance to call the next flavor of the month the “best ever” – so for them to even raise the question suggests that we’ve greatly under appreciated this colt’s qualities – at least in terms of how much we should’ve been screaming about him from the rooftops.  Here in the U.S. the yearly Kentucky Derby winner gets some foaming at the mouth followers convinced he’s the “best ever” – and we’re all forced to suffer through the nonsense the follows. 

In the U.K. though?  I’d almost expect some gentlemen named Sebastian in a top hat (and preferably with a monocle – either for functional purposes or purely for decoration) to slap me silly for daring to speak the words “best ever.”  There’s simply too much history to contend with.  Or so one might reasonably assume.

As amazing at it sounds, the British handicapping service Time Form even has odds laid out on where Sea the Stars will rank in terms of all-time greats. He’s currently listed at 10/1 to match the all-time best Time Form rating set by Sea-Bird II (145), while he’s 14/1 to break that mark. 

Before we go any further with this discussion, I have to state that personally I’m not one to put a whole lot of stock into “greatest ever” arguments. The entire nature of the discussion is inherently subjective.  In a perfect world I think it’s important that your past be storied and held to a standard perhaps even greater than it was in it’s immediacy, if only that we not cheapen our present.  To put that in plainer terms, unless we safeguard the history, legacy, and traditions of the sport by revering the past, then any moment – no matter how larger than life it may seem while it’s happening - will remain relevant for only a precious few seconds.

Is Sea the Stars really that good?  I can’t answer that question, but if our friends in Europe think it’s a question worth asking than I’d have to defer to them.  They probably wonder the same thing about our Rachel Alexandra infatuation.

If he is indeed that good – then what a shame we didn’t showcase this runner here in the States a bit more.  Who cares if he didn’t run here – I bet more Americans watched the Dubai World Cup than watched the Arc.  Think about that, and then realize we’re talking about a race where a potential legend makes history and a 2008 Breeders’ Cup champion finishes 4th as opposed to a race between Well Armed and Asiatic Boy? 

On a related note – as big a racing fan as I am, my experience on Saturday was illustrative of everything that is wrong with the sport at the moment.  The world’s richest turf race is on.  A race with potential Breeders’ Cup implications here in the U.S.  A race with as highly heralded a favorite as I can remember in recent memory – and yet I couldn’t find a live broadcast anywhere.  How sad that is. 

Something tells me that racing fans in Europe and Japan don’t have that same problem if, by chance,  they wanted to watch our Kentucky Derby.  I don’t have the answers to this problem, but as a fan it’s destructively frustrating and simply HAS to change.  If you did get the race live – good for you.  Consider yourself lucky and pray that you don’t have to live in the blindness  and informational vacuum that no live coverage creates.

When you wind up driving someone like me – a person who lives and breathes horse racing and wants only to be able to watch and wager on exciting, top quality racing action – and force me to change the channel to watch ESPN College GameDay (my alternative was the Hawthorne replay show??? Seriously????) – guess what – you aren’t getting me back.  Like most men, I have the attention span of fruit fly.

Well, okay, that’s not entirely true as I did come back to watch Super Saturday at Belmont, but I kept the football coverage on “previous channel” memory on my remote so that I could switch back defiantly during each commercial break!  Each such occasion being accompanied by a blood curling, defiant, full throated rebel yell.

In other racing news over the weekend, Careless Jewel and Music note each cemented their paths to the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic.  If, by some chance, Zenyatta decides to run in the open Classic on Saturday, than one of these runners would likely be your morning line favorite for the Ladies’ Classic.  Up next we’ll get to see Icon Project in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland, and Zenyatta will take on the California girls (Life is Sweet, Anaaba’s Creation) in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret.

In a bit of a stunning upset, Goldikova was actually defeated at Longchamp on Saturday when longshot Veranar pulled the upset in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1).  The defending Breeders’ Cup Mile runner was cutting back to 7 furlongs on Saturday, and may have been burned up a bit by a swift early pace that she got too close to.  Trainer Freddy Head indicated after the race that the Breeders’ Cup was still likely, but that “nothing is written in stone.” 

Elsewhere on “Super Saturday”, I’ve got to give a big shout out to my main man Tim Ice and his fantastic 3-year-old colt Summer Bird who throttled the field of the  Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Tim told me during the Haskell that the plan was to send Summer Bird to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so we’ll have to see if that is still the case.  The chestnut son of Birdstone has turned in a remarkable, and likely 3-year-old champion Eclipse Award winning summer campaign that included victories in the Belmont, Travers, and now the Jockey Club Gold Cup to go along with a game 2nd to Rachel Alexandra (likely Horse of the Year winner) in the Haskell.

 

 

Summer Bird will always be a favorite of ours since we got to hang out with his connections on Haskell morning.  He was also my wife’s pick for the Belmont, so he’s earned some major brownie points there.  Well done, Tim!  And way to go, Summer Bird!  The Iceman winneth!

We’ll be back before the weekend with a look at the upcoming Spinster, Lady’s Secret, and of course the Goodwood.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Goldikova, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Music Note, sea the stars, Summer Bird

The Stars Attempt to Shine

2 10 2009

This weekend kicks off an action packed, star studded 48 hours of thoroughbred racing action, capped off by the running of the world’s premier turf race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  If the weather holds up well enough, European phenom SEA THE STARS is set to go to post as the heavy Arc favorite.  Not to be entirely outdone, the U.S. has it’s own prestigious races to offer to the gods of weekend racing as the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup highlights a remarkable Saturday card at Belmont Park.

(NOTE: If interested, you can read my latest thoughts on the weekend races with Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic implications – namely the Beldame, the Fitz Dixon Cotillion, and the Cal Cup Classic in my most recent offering on the NTRA website.)

 

  

10/4 – Longchamp (France) – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

We’ll do things backwards here from a chronological perspective as obviously the Arc is the big story this weekend and rightfully deserves the most attention.  Roughly $5.84 million in purse money is on the line when the horses go to post this Sunday.  Epsom Derby winner SEA THE STARS has drawn comparisons to some of the all time greats while running up an impressive list of 5 consecutive Group One victories.  Trainer John Oxx has referred to him lovingly as “the horse of a lifetime.” 

The Irish colt’s dam, Urban Sea, was crowned Arc champion in 1993, meaning he’s got it in his genes beyond the obvious visual talent we’ve seen on display thus far.  The only concern might be mother nature, as he may be a bit vulnerable if rain enters the forecast.  For the moment at least, that does not appear to be the case. 

Lining up against SEA THE STARS is a salty group of accomplished runners, including CONDUIT, the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf champion.  YOUMZAIN will also be looking to make some noise and has shown an ability to hit the board in the Arc before.  Two ladies that I’ll be paying extra attention to are STACELITA and DAR RE MI, as at the moment there is still hope for enticing either of them to ship west for the Breeders’ Cup on November 6 & 7. 

I think this one goes to the favorite, as I can’t see SEA THE STARS being denied in the stretch.  He’s had a hard campaign, but if he’s half the horse that our friends from across the pond say he is (and they tend to know a thing or two about horses and their capabilities), than he should deliver the goods on Sunday.  I’ll probably play CONDUIT and YOUMZAIN underneath along with the two fillies (STACELITA and DAR RE MI).  FAME AND GLORY and CAVALRYMAN are two other horses I’d consider working into my plays, although I’m not fond of the latter’s post position draw (19).

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 7 – The Grade 1 Vosburgh (6 Furlongs)

Moving both backwards in time and to the more familiar surroundings of Belmont Park, we’re confronted with the  70th running of the Vosburgh.  Only 5 horses are entered for this race, but it still has a bit of intrigue based on the horses that will (should) compete. 

MUNNINGS enters as the 3-year-old taking on older males for the first time, and you might think he’d have things easy here against a small field.  Not so fast, my friends.  While the son of champion sprinter Speightstown has chased admirably behind the phenom that is Rachel Alexandra, he’s managed to draw quite a dynamic duo with both KODIAK KOWBOY and FABULOUS STRIKE in his first race against older runners.  

I could see FABULOUS STRIKE getting a perfect trip here and making it look academic in the stretch.  KODIAK KOWBOY and MUNNINGS are talented enough to make it competitive, but would be a bit of a surprise if they managed to stage the upset.  GO GO SHOOT should be pace factor and thus has a shot of hanging on in the exacta. 

Selections: 5/ 1, 4/ 1, 3, 4

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 8 – The Grade 1 Flower Bell (1 1/4 Miles – Turf)

We head to the turf for the 32nd running of the Flower Bell.  Seven horses will compete here in what is a deceptively competitive race.  First, there’s DYNAFORCE.  I don’t know what it is about this girl, but whenever I’ve played her in the past she’s burned me.  Last time out in the Beverly D, I jumped ship and went with PURE CLAN.  You don’t even have to look at the past performances to guess what happened. 

DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN will get another crack at one another on Saturday, and will also run into a pair of runners for trainer Christophe Clement that includes Carribean Sunset.  The daughter of Danheill Dancer could be rounding into form at the right time, but must also answer questions about whether she wants go 10 furlongs. 

A horse that might be overlooked at the windows is MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE.  Leave alone for a second the awesomeness of a horse with a Beatles themed name (especially with the release of The Beatles: Rock Band last month) and instead focus on her running lines.  This seems to be a runner who gives a solid effort each time out, and note that she chased Rainbow View gamely.   We know she likes the distance, so the only question will be whether she’s shipped well enough.  Without the benefit of a recent workout over the track to offer a clue, you’ll have to check her out in the post parade to attempt to make that final assessment.

For now I’ll roll the dice with MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE for the win.  Underneath I’ll add in DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN, with CARRIBEAN SUNSET added to the bottom of the trifecta. 

Selections: 7/ 3, 4/ 1, 3, 4

 

10/3 – Belmont – Race 9 – The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (1 1/2 Miles – Turf)

The 33rd running of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic presents an opportunity for GIO PONTI, the dark horse longshot for Horse of the Year honors, to continue his fine winning streak that currently stands at 4 consecutive Grade 1 turf races going back to the Frank Kilroe Handicap in March.  He’ll run into a field of 7 other contenders including the upset winner of the Sword Dancer – TELLING. 

The buzz right now is that GIO PONTI is likely pointing to the Breeders’ Cup Classic rather than the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  If true, I’ve got to wonder why his connections are running here rather than opting for a prep like the Goodwood at Santa Anita next week?  Gio does own a victory over the Santa Anita Pro Ride back in December, but that was at the Grade 3 level against the likes of Medjool and El Gato Malo and not the level of class  he’d run into in the Classic.

Presious Passion will definitely be a part of the pace scenario – that much you can take to the bank with you.  The question, as always, will be whether he can slow it down enough to wire the field, or if he’ll run himself into a brick wall like what happened in his Arlington Million effort?  The distance seems to suit him fine – but he may not be as fond of the Belmont turf as he is, say Monmouth.

TELLING stole more form me than even I myself realized in the Sword Dancer, and I’m not sure I’ll ever forgive him.  That race wound up being the final in the career of Better Talk Now, and but for Telling, my beloved Blackie would’ve gone out a winner as he deserved.  I try not to hold grudges – especially not against a horse, but I can’t shake that last bit from my memory. 

I’ll play GIO PONTI for the win, figuring the model of consistency will continue to plug away and do what he always does – win the race.  I think TELLING could hit the board again here as well and will box him along with PRESIOUS PASSION and GRAND COUTURIER on the bottom of my tickets.  If he looks good on the track, I might also work MUSKETIER into the bottom of the equation, as he did run 2nd to GIO PONTI in the Man O’ War.

Selections: 1/ 4, 7, 8/ 4, 7, 8

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 10 – The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – 1 1/4 Miles

 The feature race of Belmont’s sensational Saturday card is the 91st running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.  It always brings me great pleasure to cover a race that my boy Curlin won – not once, but twice!  This year another horse that I’ve got some mojo with comes into the race with strong support; SUMMER BIRD.  The beautiful chestnut son of Bidstone has bookend Grade 1 victories in the Belmont and the Travers buttressing a 2nd place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell.  He absolutely destroyed QUALITY ROAD in the stretch through the slop at Saratoga to take the Travers.  This will be his first start against older horses, but trainer Tim Ice has believed since well before the Belmont that his colt was something special.

MACHO AGAIN will rightly take quite a bit of consideration here coming off a defeat by only a head in Rachel Alexandra’s historic Woodward victory.  We all know how this angle works; horses who have run competitively against Rachel Alexandra are virtual locks the next time they step onto the track.  Given that he holds the age advantage over SUMMER BIRD and QUALITY ROAD, and is as battle tested a Grade 1 older dirt horse as we have in the nation at the moment, MACHO AGAIN would seem to be the one to beat.  I’m just not sure he gets 10 furlongs as well as he usually gets 9.

Instead, I’ve got to stick with my man Tim Ice here and Summer Bird.  Either way, Rachel stands to have yet another feather placed in her cap when a horse she’s defeated adds the Jockey Club Gold Cup to their belt.  QUALITY ROAD is the x-factor here and could either run a huge race or prove to be better suited to shorter distances.  After all the unfulfilled hype surrounding this horse heading into the Travers, I’m going to make him beat me rather than support him.  I think he can hit the board though and would definitely include him underneath in the exotics. 

TIZWAY and ASIATIC BOY shoud also be considered for underneath play in the exotic wagers.  I’m not much of an ASIATIC BOY fan, but he has run respectable at this distance and has a tendency to wind up in the money.  TIZWAY could be interesting at a price considering he appears on paper to be a pace contender – plus you know I never like to discount the possibilities of Tiznow’s offspring. 

Selections: 3/ 2, 4, 7/ 2, 4. 5. 7

 

Best of luck to all!

We’ll be back next weekend for a look at the Lady’s Secret (featuring Zenyatta and Life is Sweet) from Santa Anita as well as the Spinster (featuring Icon Project) from Keeneland as we continue to countdown to the Breeders’ Cup Championships.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Better Talk Now, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Presious Passion, Quality Road, sea the stars, Summer Bird

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