Ten Memories From Breeders’ Cup 2010

7 11 2010

“We sat and heard in silence. What other expression had we that was not meant for such an awful universe of battle?” – Lt Frank Haskell –  Gettysburg, PA – July 3, 1863

It’s hard to believe that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is already a historical memory.  With so much anticipation and build-up, I’m surprised each year as the races rattle off and the weekend winds down just how quickly the whole affair can happen.  This year, like all others before, was filled with memories; some of them favorable, some of them far more disconcerting.   On the plus side, attendance and betting handle were up from 2009.  On the downside the races didn’t quite end in the story-book fashion many were hoping for.  As we wind down from the weekend that was, I thought we might take a quick look back at 10 memories that will stay with us from the Breeders’ Cup 2010.

  • Jockey Fight 2010:

It’s a shame, but you sort of have to begin here. Things got off to a strange start in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano exchanged blows following the running of the  Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The moment was captured live on ESPN and instantly went viral – becoming the first sustained memory of the championship weekend.  From Castellano’s seemingly stunning left jab to the enraged look in Borel’s eyes as he was held back and then removed from the scene.

The entire ordeal was both bizarre and absurd.   This couldn’t have been the start the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup were hoping for, but there’s a line of thinking that suggests any exposure is good exposure, and if nothing else the novelty of two height-challenged individuals resorting to fisticuffs in the winner’s circle certainly attracted the attention of folks who would otherwise would not have cared.  The real tragedy was the number of times throughout the continuing racing coverage that “jockeyfight” was harped upon.  Additionally, the high drama surrounding the entire affair should’ve given us a clue as to the proper hunch play for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the following day.

  • The Big 10 can’t play defense:

Sadly, horse racing fans have to be acutely aware of this fact, but any who didn’t already know that the teams of the Big 10 have a ways to go as far as being able to actually prevent opposing offenses from scoring at will got a healthy reality check about midway through the racing action on Saturday afternoon.   Just as ESPN was switching it’s coverage from ESPN2  to it’s main channel, fans were greeted with a stunning Overtime battle between Illinois and Michigan.

Yes, those two powerhouses fighting for middle-of-the-pack status within the conference wound up going through 3 OT periods before a winner was decided.  During that time racing fans the world over began to form organized resistance as it appeared we would not be able to see the running of the Juvenile.  Thankfully the heavens parted, Michigan sealed the game, and we wound up getting to see Uncle Mo’s brilliant performance (more on that in a moment) in stunning HD quality…and there was much rejoicing.

  • Rough Sailing breaking down:

Probably the saddest of all memories from the past weekend was the injury suffered by longshot Rough Sailing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The horse fell, dropping Napravnk from the saddle and then had to be taken away in an ambulance. Not long afterwards came word that the horse was euthanized. Ironically, the winning horse in the race, Tam Valour’s Pluck, was very near Rough Sailing when he fell, and jockey Garrett Gomez deserves credit for steering Pluck away from what seemed to be a collision in the making once Napravnik was on the ground.  A scary moment that could’ve turned out even worse if not for some quick thinking and reflexes.   Sadly, as far as Rough Sailing is concerned, there was no silver lining.   RIP.

  • Bet the longshots!

Right out of the gate we were greeted with a glimpse of what was to come when Eldaafer scored in the Marathon and returned $23.20 to win.  The only favorite that won on the first day was Awesome Feather, who still managed to return $10.40 worth of value to her supporters.  By the time the weekend was through we had witnessed More Than Real scoring at $29.20 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dangerous Midge at $19.00 in the Turf, and bank breakers Dakota Phone ($77.40) and Shared Account ($94.00) in the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, respectively.

Shared Account’s victory in particular being memorable as it came over the highly regarded and heavily favored Midday – and may have ultimately led to the decision of Arc winner Workforce being scratched from the BC Turf.  Suffice to say, if you played value horses over the favorites throughout the weekend, chances are you were highly rewarded.   Personally I didn’t catch either of the whoppers, and the victory by Dakota Phone bounced me from the Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

  • Uncle Mo exploding in the stretch to win the Juvenile:

The question everyone wants answered with the yearly running of the Juvenile is whether a 2-year-old exists that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the division. While it’s still a long way to go until the “First Saturday in May”,  many folks will no doubt be looking back to Saturday’s performance from Uncle Mo as an early indication of a potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite.  Mo’ exploded in the stretch when asked by jockey John Velazquez and stopped the clock on the 1 1/16 mile race at 1:42.60, good enough for a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for the son of Indian Charlie.

Only time will tell if Mo is able to continue his form cycle into next season, but it’s interesting to note that the last horse use the race as a stepping stone to a victorious Derby campaign the following season, Street Sense, also won the Juvenile over the main track at Churchill.  Admittedly there may have been a speed bias favoring the rail during Street Sense’s06 Juvenile score, but for Uncle Mo it seemed like a simple case of being the far superior horse in the field.

  • Dakota Phone noses out Morning Line:

The score that essentially crushed my Pick 4 dreams in the final races of the championship weekend, the 37/1 victory by Dakota Phone was undboutedly a key component to a memorable weekend for those lucky enough to have covered him in the exotics.  The son of Zavata got up just in time to nose out the tepid early favorite, aptly named Morning Line, by a nose in the photo finish.

Personally, I had spread 6 horses deep to cover this race on my tickets, and like many folks I was reminded that in contentious Breeders’ Cup races, sometimes going 6 deep just isn’t enough.  I suppose it’s a bit of a handicapping lesson; if you’ve got no real opinion in a race and are covering that many runners, keep in mind that “anything can happen”, and in the case of the Breeders’ Cup, “anything” probably will happen.  Hats off to anyone that used this horse.

  • Unrivaled Belle best of the ladies:

In a race that featured the 3 biggest names of the division other than Zenyatta (Blind Luck, Life At Ten, and Havre De Grace), Unrivalled Belle may have been somewhat under the radar to many folks.  While clearly capable on her best stuff, it was assumed by most that one of the more highly touted runners would be able to reel her in during the stretch run.  Several handicappers did select Belle, however, most notably (in my opinion) the much adored Christina Olivares of TVG.

Wish I would’ve paid that selection more attention, but in truth by the time I caught this on the DVR I was a bit “opinioned out” and essentially not listening to anything more being said.  Big mistake.  The daughter of Unrivaled Song took command as the field entered the turn and then pulled away to a convincing 1 3/4 length score.  Blind Luck showed the heart of a champion but could not make up the ground that separated the two.

  • Life At Ten – the scratch that should’ve been:

As the field headed to post in the 2010 Ladies’ Classic, it was clear that something was wrong with Life at Ten.  A blind man could’ve seen it.  How this horse went to post is beyond me. She was the surest toss of the entire weekend once she was observed in the post parade.  Of course, that was little comfort to those of us who had confidently wagered on her in the multi-race exotics.  Todd Pletcher had himself a pretty good Breeders’ Cup weekend, but Life At Ten’s debacle is likely the memory that will haunt him the most.

Thankfully she appears to be okay and not seriously injured, but had something even more disastrous occurred I don’t think the game would’ve been able to avoid the proverbial backlash.  When folks who have never seen a horse race in their lives are asking questions like “why are they letting that horse run?”  you know things aren’t going well.

  • Goldikova makes it 3 in a row:

One has to wonder if somewhere in the back of her mind Goldikova wasn’t tired of playing second fiddle on the center stage for Breeders’ Cup 2010?   The champion proved she was every bit the super horse that we’ve made her out to be in earning her unprecedented 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup victory in the TVG Mile.  For a while it seemed like she may be in a bad spot, and turning for home I remember thinking “this is going to take everything you have.”  And yet, it didn’t, as the daughter o Anabaa pulled away to a clear 1 3/4 length victory over her primary foe, the Eclipse Award winning Gio Ponti.

For his part, Gio Ponti can now claim that if not for two of the greatest mares the sport has had in recent memory running the races of their lives, it might be he we are fawning over for consecutive Breeders’ Cup victories.  It was Gio, after all, who trailed the great Zenyatta during her 2010 Classic score.  The big question everyone is hoping for a positive answer to is whether Goldikova now tries to make it 4 in a row in 2011?  Considering she’s now won over 10% of the Turf Mile events ever run at the Breeders’ Cup, I’d expect it may still be a possibility.

  • Blame over Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic photo finish

I’m torn on this moment and a bit confused as to what my proper feelings should be.  On the one hand I’ve liked Blame all year and thought he may be the only horse capable of holding off Zenyatta in deep stertch.  In fact, I even went so far as to predict a photo finish between the two in our pre-race handicapping selections.  On the other hand, despite the valiant effort, I’d be kidding if I claimed to not be a bit heart broken.

There was a feeling in the air, even as Zenyatta went to post amidst the roar of the crowd and began her patented “dancing” routine, that things were going to be desperate.  Early on in the race I thought she looked like she was not enjoying herself.  She’s always in the back of the pack but she was so far back I worried that she may wind up being pulled up.  Turning for home it seemed as if once again the great mare was going to find a way to thunder down the center of the track and into the history books.  She would have – if not for an equally game contender in Blame.   Someone must’ve forget to tell Blame that he was supposed to play 2nd fiddle to the great one, and he simply did what he knows to do best in holding off a living legend at the wire for the score.

Deflating for Zenyatta lovers?  Sure.  Indicative that Zenyatta is not the super horse of legend we’ve made her out to be?  Hardly.  In fact, I’d argue that the 2010 Classic was one of Zenyatta’s best performances given how absolutely out of it she seemed as the field entered the final turn.   A mile into the race she was in 11th position.  At the top of the stretch she was already in 3rd and rolling.  She may have lost the head bob, but she gained so much more in terms of respect and appreciation.  We learned that we don’t need perfection – as who amongst us can claim to be perfect in anything – in order to appreciate greatness.


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Categories : Blame, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

The cream rises to the top

13 06 2010

Following a turbulent spring in which the 3-year-old division never really sorted itself out the way many of us had hoped – this Saturday provided an opportunity to establish a firm sense of where things stood among the ranks of older females and males.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra had been the subject of intense scrutiny and conjecture – as friends and foes alike pondered what had happened to the killer instinct with which the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro had dispatched her challengers over the course of her previous campaign.

Struggling in the stretch against the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle – who while good horses certainly did not appear to be “Rachel beaters” on paper headed into their contests with the champ – had left a foul taste in many folks mouths.  Tensions were running so high that there were calls for her to be retired – and even exercise jockey Dominic Terry wound up being replaced by Steve Asmussen following some sort of disagreement (Terry, it must be noted, was a fan favorite who routinely conversed over the internet with Rachel’s fans – so this author was sad to see him removed).

Then, of course, there was the looming specter of the “figure 8″ – the singular piece of equipment that had caused so much grief as it seemed that Asmussen was trying to alter the way in which Rachel Alexandra responded to the bit as well as when and where she would make her move while racing.

As noted by Sid Fernando – Rachel Alexandra did not wear the figure 8 when sent to post yesterday for the G2 Fleur de Lis.  The result, as may have been expected, was that the filly ran off the screen again, invoking memories of her victories last year in the Mother Goose, Haskell, and Kentucky Oaks.

While watching the race live, it may not have seemed such a foregone conclusion to her throngs of fans.  It looked for a moment like a repeat of what we had seen against Unrivaled Belle and Zardana.  Rachel collared Jessica is Back and moved to the front, but then Distinctive Dixie seemed poised to pounce on her.

It was then that something peculiar happened.  Rather than allow a “lesser” horse to surge past her as she had done both times this year, Rachel seemed to remember who she was, digging down deep to procure a semblance of that greatness.  She pulled away brilliantly in the stretch, and with a furlong to go the races was as good as over.

Full results chart from Equibase

The final margin put her at 10 1/2 lengths in front of Distinctive Dixie, crossing the wire in the 1 1/8 mile race in 1:48.78.   The distance and time are not insignificant as just 4 races later many of the top older males in the land would go the same route in the G1 Stephen Foster.

Comparing the two races directly is a bit difficult to do – as the Stephen Foster featured a full field of 11 runners who were quite comfortable setting  a much slower pace early on (:24.50 and :48.72 as opposed to the :23.93 and :47.25 of the Fleur de Lis).  Still, it’s noteworthy that when Blame stopped the clock after prevailing in the Stephen Foster, he did so almost half a second slower than Rachel at 1:49.37.

Take nothing away from Blame’s performance though.  He absolutely devoured the highly regarded Battle Plan in the stretch, overcoming a highly disadvantageous post position draw in the 11 hole in the process.

We noted headed into Preakness day that we thought Blame was a serious race horse who belonged in the discussion for the best older male in the handicap division – and this performance in the Stephen Foster clearly makes him a horse to keep an eye on as the season progresses towards the Breeders’ Cup championships this fall.

Of course these weren’t the only two horses making  strong appearances.  Thanks to imperfections of racing’s calendar you also had Rail Trip winning the G2 California Stakes at Hollywood Park.  Additionally, there was Life at Ten staging the upset over the aforementioned Unrivaled Belle in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, and Miss Singhsix prevailing in the G3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park (a race that you would be excused for thinking may not have existed, considering the total lack of coverage it received).

As if all this action were not enough – there’s still the undefeated super mare Zenyatta today at Hollywood Park in the G1 Vanity!  That’s right – the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and widely regarded greatest horse on the planet.  While it’s a bit odd to see such a horse running on a Sunday, I think it goes without saying that we’ll take our Zenyatta races any way we can get them.

Here’s hoping that advertising and marketing execs have been paying attention whenever the spine-tingling Breeders’ Cup commercials featuring Zenyatta’s ’09 Classic victory air – they are precisely what the sport needs!

Now, as ESPNs Jeremy Plonk has rightly pointed out – if only we could get all these horses together in a race (or two) – rather than spread out across the nation in races that tend to cannibalize the importance of each.

While I understand the criticism of the column linked to in the above statement – the one benefit of having so many races for the same division strung out across so many tracks on the same weekend may have been the reappearance of Rachel Alexandra.  That may have been exactly what she needed.

I still don’t think she’s ready to throw down with the likes of a Zenyatta – but it felt darn good to see her pull away in the stretch and “stick her tongue out” at the competition.

Now there’s only one thing left to do – get Zenyatta home on top in the Vanity to run that unbeaten streak to 17 for 17.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Blame, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Paddy O'Prado, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver

Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Selections for Kentucky Oaks Day

29 04 2010

Derby weekend is FINALLY here!  Before we get too caught up in the actual Derby madness – there’s a fantastic card of racing for Friday to take in first.  Not only do we get the Oaks, but also 5 other stakes races as well – including the return of the defending Horse of the Year in Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 2 La Troienne (and her new nemesis, Zardana).

The weather figures to be mild for Oaks Friday, although storm clouds are expected for the Derby on Saturday.  If you’re interested in putting your opinion on the line – take a few moments to fill out our Win-Place-Show pool for the TBA over on Google Docs.  It’s a standard mythical $2 across-the-board setup with one horse in each race.

Anyhow, let’s jump right into the thick of things, shall we?

Rachel Alexandra, the defending Horse of the Year, returns against newfound nemesis Zardana in the G2 La Troienne on Friday

Race 6: Grade 2 La Troienne (1:26 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

A heavyweight bout of epic proportions: Zardana vs. Rachel – Round 2!  If team Rachel tries to gun for the front again, I think they are in trouble.  There’s “speed” on the inside (#1 Be Fair), and to her outside (#5 Unrivalled Belle and #6 Distinctive Dixie).  I’d much prefer a stalk and pounce trip the way she demonstrated in the Haskell and Mother Goose last year.  This one looks like a two-horse race between Zardana and Rachel – and it will likely take all the defending Horse of the Year has to make amends.  On the plus side, she’s supposedly training better - and it’s good she has a race under he belt, but Zardana will not be intimidated and must be reckoned with in the stretch.

Selections:

  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (3/5*)
  • #3 Zardana (3/1)
  • #5 Unrivaled Belle (5/1)

Race 7: Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (2:10 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs

Two-year-old Juvies.  Looks like a field that has some talented runners who ran well in their debuts.  What I see here is a wealth of speed, and while I know we’re only going 5 furlongs, the feeling is that it sets up well for Lou Brissie to come from just off the battle up front and pass them all in deep stretch.  I know Twelve Pack Shelly (beyond the cool name) has the outrageous speed figure for the debut, but that  was against Laurel Park maidens, so I’ll make her beat me if I can (lord knows with a name like that she could drink me under the table anyways).

Selections:

  • #2 Lou Brissie (5/1)
  • #9 Twelve Pack Shelly (3/1)
  • #4 Weekend Wildcat (12/1)

Race 8: Grade 3 Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (3:04 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Chamberlain Bridge is lethal at this distance (10 wins in 19 starts), but was handled by Silver Timber last out.  Get the feeling this one comes down to these two as well.  Longer odds horses with a shot here include Starfish Bay, Formidable, Heavenly Chorus, and Mitigation (I seldom toss any horse Alan Garcia is aboard).  Oh, and do not the presence of Garrett Gomez on #8 Barge as well.  Feels like a race I’d like to take a chance on with a longer priced horse, but I still think it comes down to the obvious 2 when all is said and done, and I’ll give the edge to Chamberlain Bridge on the slight cutback in distance.

Selections:

  • #3 Chamberlain Bridge (5/2)
  • #6 Silver Timber (2/1*)
  • #9 Formidable (12/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (3:54 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

Hard for me to be objective here.  On the one hand my 2009 Kentucky Derby pick Friesan Fire is here, as is my old pal Bullsbay for Graham Motion.  Obviously the bull needs some pace to run at, but there’s not a lot here.  Friesan Fire , Enriched,  and Cool Coal Man could all factor into the pace equation.  Bullsbay has been off since the Clark (G2) last November, but c’mon – I can’t pick against my boy here.  Like I said, hard to be objective for me.

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (6/1)
  • #4 Cool Coal Man (4/1)
  • #2 Friesan Fire (7/2*)

Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (4:47 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

The story behind the scenes for the American Turf is the entry of Setsuko, who would’ve been somewhat interesting in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday following his impressive 2nd place finish behind tepid Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.  Alas, while Make Music for Me  and Backtalk are in the Derby, Setsuko is here.  You may remember this guy from my initial KY Derby watch list in early February.  Two other horses I really like in this spot are Workin For Hops, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime and figures to get a decent trip if he isn’t hindered by the outside post in the 11 hole, and Doubles Partner, who could offer some value on the return to dirt with Garrett Gomez aboard.

Selections:

  • #11 Workin For Hops (12/1)
  • #6 Doubles Partner (10/1)
  • #1 Setsuko (4/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (5:45 PM ET) – 1 1/8 Miles

The feature race of the day may well be the best betting opportunity as well.  Most of the attention will rightly focus on Blind Luck, whom I think would make even more sense than Devil May Care in the Derby, but I digress.  That being said, there’s another horse in here I’m extremely fond of – It’s Tea Time.  I gave this horse out as my pick for the Ashland at the beginning of April during a chat on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website (a great spot for horse racing fans, I might add).  I was mildly ridiculed at the time – but I suspect this daughter of Dynaformer earned some respect when she almost nailed Evening Jewel at the wire.  I know she can get the distance of the Oaks.  What I don’t know is how she’ll like the dirt?  This much is certain – she’s my favorite 3-year-old filly at the moment, so you know I’m backing her all the way.

Selections:

  • #1 It’s Tea Time (10/1)
  • #5 Blind Luck (6/5*)
  • #11 Evening Jewel (10/1)

That’ll do it for our Oaks picks – check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for our picks for each of the major races this Saturday – including the Kentucky Derby.   Best of luck to all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Rachel Alexandra

2010 KY Derby Madness Begins – The Bladensburg Races

26 04 2010

Surprise, surprise – another Derby week dawns and another round of shocking news and updates is not far behind.  The updates themselves are surprising – Eskendereya out of the Kentucky Derby – but the notion that such events will unfold this time of year should not be so.  Yet, we seem to do this with alarming regularity – running around in a collective Chinese fire drill as highly touted horses scratch from the list of Derby starters.

In 2009, this came in the form of scratches to favorites Quality Road and I Want Revenge (with the latter occurring on Derby morning and thus being excusable for having caused sudden onset fits of panic).  Now we’re back in familiar territory in 2010 with the announcement on Sunday that Eskendereya is out of the Derby.

Note: no worries – it doesn’t appear that Der Fuhrer has yet received word of Eskendereya’s injury.

The change makes the race more interesting – no doubt about that – but does it make the race any more “wide open” than it already was (or wasn’t, depending upon your perspective)?

It’s not like Eskendereya was going to wire the field, and that his scratch drastically alters the pace setup.  We know we’ve still got speed horses in this race ranging from Conveyance to Line of David to American Lion.  Even the highly regarded Sidney’s Candy has shown proficiency for being on the lead – even if the supposition is that he will attempt to stalk on Saturday.

The way I see things, all we’ve done is removed one layer of uncertainty from the tangled web of Derby week drama.  Regardless of the pace setup, you’re either going to accept one of the lower priced, impressive horses form the West Coast in Sidney’s Candy or Lookin at Lucky – or you aren’t.

There’s ample reason to go in either direction for each horse.  Lucky obviously could use a little luck.  He’s the 2-year-old champion and there’s no question he’s a talented horse, but he seems to get himself into trouble every-so-often, which may not be a good sign on the eve of a field the size of the Derby.

Sidney’s Candy has blown away fields in California running wire to wire over the Pro Ride and turning in impressive late fractions along the way.  How often do we hear that the Pro Ride is really turf by another name?  Doesn’t that make it more impressive that a horse like Sid could wire fields the way he does?  He’s also a fabulous looking colt (and to let the cat out of the bag, I’ll confide here that he’s my wife’s top betting interest for the Derby).  He will, however, also have to do something he’s never had to do at this level or against this caliber of competition – pass horses in the stretch.

Make no mistake about it though – I think Lucky and Sidney are the two horses you’re going to have to beat if you want a Derby payday to remember.  They could well be standouts from a talent perspective when all is said and done.  That doesn’t mean they should be considered “locks” to finish 1, 2 in the Derby, however.

Looking over the rest of the field, I find myself intrigued by Awesome Act.  I don’t think he belongs anywhere near 7/2, but I was already looking at him to have an improved trip when I thought the monster we casually refer to as Eskendereya was still going to be in this race.  If Awesome gets a better trip, AND if he gets more fashionable footwear (dude had all kinds of shoe problems in the Wood), this could be a good ole fashioned British invasion (though technically Awesome Act is an American by birth, having been born in Kentucky and then shipped to England for training).

As Americans, we do enjoy a good British invasion every few years, don’t we?  Most folks think the one and only British invasion involved the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, but this is simply not the case.  It’s a topic I know all too well having grown up in rural Cecil County, MD – a target of not one, but TWO British invasions in our first half-century of existence (the first American casualties to have ever fallen under the “stars and stripes” having happened at nearbye Cooch’s Bridge in Delaware during the Brandywine campaign of 1777 – another American defeat hardly anyone has ever heard of).

Robert Ross - his "Awesome Act" in routing the Americans at Bladensburg left Washington, D.C. open to occupation in August, 1814.

In late August, 1814,  British forces under Sir Robert Ross assaulted American positions on the outskirts of Washington, D.C. at the lopsided Battle of Bladensburg.  The Americans were so routed by the redcoats that the ensuing retreat became forever known as “the Bladensburg races.”

Many reading this have no doubt never heard of Bladensburg or the action fought there – quite simply, with the exception of Custer’s Last Stand, we aren’t a people who like to celebrate our lopsided defeats.  We’re a much more victory oriented society.  We remember Gettysburg, Normandy, and Midway because “we” prevailed in those places.  At Bladensburg, it was our asses that got a royal kicking (quite literally).

The British, flushed with their recent success, advanced into the capital unopposed and set it aflame – driving president James Madison (and his wife Dolly) into the countryside seeking safety.  With the paths to Washington and Baltimore wide open, defeat for the tiny American republic seemed a foregone conclusion, but it was not to be.

Just outside of Baltimore, Major Ross was felled by the bullet of a sniper at the onset of the Battle of North Point.  With his death, the English were thrown into confusion and eventually driven from the field.  During the accompanying naval bombardment of Ft. McHenry at the mouth of Baltimore’s harbor, a young lawyer named Francis Scott Key would observe the cannonade and famously note with pride that on the following morning “our flag was still there.”

If Awesome Act were to somehow stage the upset this weekend – in effect he’d scatter the American resistance and send them fleeing for the safety of Pimlico (Baltimore/Washington) and beyond – rather like the running of the “Bladensburg races” nearly 200 years earlier.  Obviously I’m just having some fun with the possibilities here - as technically the colt is no more “English” than anyone who has vacationed in London or had their picture taken with Big Ben in the background.  I must confess though, ever since that Gotham victory, there is something about Awesome Act that I’m extremely fond of.   I wonder what his accent is like if he neighs something about aluminum?

At the end of the day I’ve got the wife jumping on Sidney’s Candy and the rest of the world seems to be on Lookin’ at Lucky.  I’m zigging when they zag and taking Awesome Act, and of course my good friend and fellow blogger Tencentcielo has been firmly aboard the Endorsement bandwagon since, well, since Radio Flyer came out with an Endorsement themed version of their popular red wagon following the Sunland Derby.

The million dollar question is – who are you taking?  I know Post Positions aren’t assigned yet and there’s still ample time for a million things to go wrong – but at this point you have to have some notion of which direction you’re leaning, and we’d love to hear about it.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy

Horse of the Year; the case for Rachel Alexandra

6 09 2009

 

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

I’ve posted this on Twitter, placed it in recent articles, and feel very strongly about the matter.  Following Rachel Alexandra’s victory against older males in the Woodward on Saturday at Saratoga, the race for Horse of the Year would appear to be over.  I realize that might be a bold statement considering there are several huge races left to be run this year.  I can’t see how anyone else’s campaign could possibly top what we’ve seen unfold before our eyes.  The filly who was once rejected by her mother (Lotta Kim) has reached the top of the mountain as the finest horse in racing in all of North America.

This isn’t just a Horse of the Year campaign, it’s a campaign for all times.  Arguably the start to a Hall of Fame career.  Every time she runs, decades worth of history come crashing down like so many dominoes.  She lays waste to the competition, conquers every track she encounters, and can lay claim to achieving truly unprecedented results.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Interestingly, I actually believe that if the Zenyatta camp had travelled east to face Rachel in the Woodward, they would’ve had a very big shot to prevail.  Especially considering how the pace setup ultimately played out.  The closers (Bullsbay and Macho Again) were rolling late with every chance to catch Rachel.  You’d have to think Zenyatta would’ve been coming gamely in the stretch.  We must also factor in that Zenyatta would’ve been returning to dirt in a relatively fresh condition.

I just don’t see what Zenyatta can do now to surpass what Rachel has done this year?  There would’ve been an opportunity to keep pace by moving up the class ladder and taking on older males in the Pacific Classic, but that didn’t happen.  We KNOW that Rachel is the dominant horse of the U.S. east of the Mississippi.  Zenyatta?  Well, the picture’s a little cloudy for her.  She’s a champion and undefeated mare who deserves a great deal of respect, that much is certain.  

Don’t you have to feel though that the older male division in California has been somewhat ripe for the taking?  I thought Zenyatta would’ve made a lot of sense as a logical contender in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Sadly, we’ve never had the chance to find out.  Hopefully that changes in the future, but even so it might be a case of too little too late.

Even if Zenyatta manages to win the Classic, and let’s assume for a moment that she does win in electrifying fashion against top flight competition, would that be enough to leapfrog everything Rachel has accomplished already?  Not in my mind.  Of course, this doesn’t even factor in that Zenyatta might run into a horse like Sea the Stars in the Classic.  As much respect as I have for her, the 2009 campaign so far does not stack up favorably against the accomplishments of Rachel.

Too strong an opinion?  Perhaps, but let’s review that list of accomplishments for Rachel:

Historical notes:
-First filly in 8 decades to win the Preakness
-2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell
-first filly EVER to defeat older males in the Woodward

Runners who have flattered Rachel with NEXT OUT Stakes wins:
-Just Jenda ( G3 Monmouth Oaks)
-Sarah Louise (G3 Victory Ride)
-Gabby’s Golden Gal (G1 Acorn)
-Take the Points (G2 Secretariat)
-Flashing (G1 Test)
-Summer Bird (G1 Travers)

Misc:
-5 CONSECUTIVE Grade 1 wins (Ky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, Woodward).

-Joins elite company becoming one of the few 3-year-old fillies in history to defeat Grade 1 older males over a mile or more.

-Faced males in 3 of those 5 Grade 1 races, won ‘em all.

-Perfect 8 for 8 record in 2009, all stakes races.

-Has defeated the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Stephen Foster – all while winning the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward for herself…and that’s just the last 5 races going back to May.

(read that point above one more time)

-For any other horse (colt or filly) defeating the Kentucky Derby winner would’ve been the centerpiece of their 3-year-old campaign.  For Rachel it’s just one of many such moments, and arguably not the biggest or the most memorable.  Think about that.  That’s really saying something.  Just to help you remember how special that moment and the buildup to that historic ride was, take a little walk down memory lane once again:

 

 

-Has won Grade 1 races this year at 5 different tracks: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks), Pimlico (Preakness), Belmont Park (Mother Goose), Monmouth Park (Haskell), and Saratoga (Woodward). 

-There were 3 more stakes victories starting the campaign in early 2009.  Take note of this as it’s the first point in the discussion that Zenyatta’s ’09 campaign draws even by comparison.  It’s the basement of Rachel’s accomplishments but currently the ceiling of those Zenyatta has earned thus far in 2009.  I think that last sentence bears some reflection.

The thought that all of the above happened in the 3-year-old campaign of a single filly is so unbelievably spectacular that I’m not sure even Horse of the Year renders it full justice.  Remember that after all this, she’s still not even a mare yet!  It boggles the mind to think of how she might develop if given proper rest to prepare for a 4-year-old campaign.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Well, maybe that is a little harsh, but it’s hard to argue with the list of accolades listed above. 

Any argument favoring someone else for Horse of the Year is bound to contain speculation about what might happen in the future, or is based on memories from the previous year.  In contrast, Rachel’s case is built on events that have actually happened this year.  There’s no might or if about them.  She’s earned it all on the track.

What say you?


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Monmouth Park, Pimlico, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, Z Humor, Zenyatta

In support of Jess Jackson’s decision to skip the Breeders’ Cup Classic

24 06 2009

You’ve got to hand it Jess Jackson. The man sure knows how to keep things interesting.  Following his official announcement today that his filly Rachel Alexandra will not run in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita this October, the horse racing world is once again buzzing with passionate debate.   Already folks are lining up on one side or the other.  Depending on where you stand, his decision was either totally correct or tragically flawed.

Given my history of affection for his previous champion, it’s probably not surprising that I’m in the former camp.  

Allow me to explain in detail.

First things first.  Not a single day has gone bye since last October that I haven’t remembered with disgust the sight of watching Curlin, the world’s undisputed best dirt horse, struggle over a turf impersonating Santa Anita Pro Ride in the 2008 Classic.  As a testament to his courage, heart, and talent, he managed to get to the front as the field straightened out for the stretch, but it was only for a fleeting moment.  Within seconds he was being blown past by the likes of eventual “champion” Raven’s Pass.  In my mind, for fans of Curlin and for horse racing, this was an absolutely unforgivable crime.

I said it last year, and I’ll say it again now:

“Artificial surfaces produce artificial (dirt) champions.” 

It’s really as simple as that. 

Now, looking back at Jess Jackson and his decision:  Put yourself in the man’s shoes.  Despite it being a veritable money pit from a profitability standpoint, the man brought back the 2007 Horse of the Year “for the fans”, and raced him around the world from Kentucky, to New York, to Dubai.  He was victorious everywhere he went.   What was the thanks he had in the end?  Oh yeah, that’s right:  “Hey Jess, now you have to ship your horse to California to run over a plastic surface!”  

 Great, grand, wonderful.   Way to ruin our precious little field trip! 

Now we’re left with a perplexing situation.  Just weeks ago, folks were declaring their “concern” that Jackson would have the audacity to run Rachel Alexandra in either the Preakness or the Belmont.   “My god….has he lost his mind??? Doesn’t he realize she’s just a filly?”

Rachel put those concerns to bed by romping from gate to wire, holding off the Kentucky Derby winner to become the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness.  Moreover, she instantly established herself as the most popular 3-year-old in the nation,  as well as the most talented.

Fast forward to today, and it’s amazing that suddenly Jackson is a villain for not wanting to run his horse in (presumably) the Breeders’ Cup Classic?   What?  I seriously don’t get this.

 

The infamous “keyboard cat” of youtube fame plays off a true villian

 

Wouldn’t she be facing boys again in the Classic?  Wouldn’t she also have to tackle a new surface?  How is that not MORE alarming than the worries expressed prior to the Preakness?   Sometimes I think folks just love to hate.  Give ‘em any excuse in the world, and they’ll seize on it.  Truth be told, Rachel has been on synthetics before.  She’s got a victory at Keeneland at the Allowance level, but the Pro Ride at Santa Anita is an entirely different story. 

Need another consideration?  What about her running style?   She’s basically a front runner, with the ability to press/rate if the situation demands.  My question for fellow handicappers is this:  When considering the chances of a speedy type such as Rachel, aren’t you more comfortable with such a runner on a true dirt surface than a synthetic surface?   To be fair, it’s not like front runners DON”T win at Santa Anita.  They do…in fact sometimes they win in bunches, but typically you expect a synthetic race to be run closer to a traditional turf race – with a bit of a cavalry charge finish.   My suspicion is that if Rachel had to fight for the lead every step of the way, as she did against Big Drama in the 2009 Preakness, that she’d probably fade in the stretch.  I’ve no interest in seeing that, personally, and I’m sure Jess feels the same way.   It’s not fair to the horse, it’s not fair to the purity/integrity of the game and the “championships” themselves, and it’s certainly not fair to those that love her and want to see her put in position to succeed.

Consider for a moment the role of the owner in all of this.  In other sports, such as football, we praise coaches who “get the most of their athletes” by “putting them in position to win.”  Sending Rachel to run in the Classic over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita would not be consistent with “putting her in a position to win.”  In fact, in my mind it would be more like  playing someone out of their natural position.

“Oh, what’s this?  Manny Ramirez moves in from Left Field to play Shortstop!  This ought to work out well for the Dodgers!”

Obviously that would be crazy, right?   Well, perhaps with the right Performance Enhancing Drugs…nah, never mind.  It’d be sheer lunacy.  Heck, even the picture below of Manny walking to his outfield position through shortstop just looks wrong. 

 

Or, think of it this way.  If you follow pro football transactions, and specifically along the defensive line, you’ll hear teams talking about needing a “3 technique tackle”, or a guy who can play Defensive End in a base 3-4 defense as opposed to a 4-3.   True, you get a few “tweeners” who seem suited for both, but bye and large players tend to succeed when they are put in the correct position and given the best chance to succeed. 

For example, Tom Brady will likely once again be the top player selected in many of our Fantasy Football drafts in the coming months (provided the owner holding the 1st pick wasn’t burned by his injury last year).   He’s one of the top quarterbacks in the game (if not THE top).   But you’d never stick him in at Running Back though, would you?  You’d never ask him to suddenly play middle ‘backer, either.  That would be insane.   Why?  Because you’d be asking him to play out of his natural position.  

Tom Brady; Great quarterback, probably a crappy linebacker

Rachel Alexandra’s natural position is taking a field gate-to-wire over a true dirt surface.  That’s where she excels.  That’s when she’s in the “best position to succeed.”  Why on earth should someone be forced to place her anywhere else?  Just because it’s “the Classic?”  I only ask that for all those who are determined to blame Jackson for “ruining the Breeders’ Cup” by refusing to run her, that you have the same level of anger directed at the Breeders’ Cup for their decision to force the hand of owners who aren’t interested in bringing their dirt horses to run for plastic championships.  In my opinion they’ve now cost us 2 potentially brilliant champions in both Curlin last year, and Rachel this year.  

…And all for the lure of the marketing dollar.  That’s what this is really all about anyway.  The only reason the race is at Santa Anita again this year is so the BC could schmooze it up with local businesses and sell more infield real estate  See, personally, as a fan of racing, I could give a rats ass about that stuff.  I don’t really care how much Nextell is ponying up (no pun intended) for an advertising booth.  What I care about is seeing championship caliber racing.  If you look at it that way, if we’ve sold out the true spirit of top quality racing for the almighty marketing dollar, then I’m actually happy if this entire decision blows up in their collective faces. 

Seriously….I can’t let this go….didn’t it just feel hideously wrong to anyone but me when handicapping the “dirt mile” last year when it wasn’t even going to be run on dirt?   There’s just something basically wrong with that, no matter how you slice it. 

Jackson took one for the team last year.  He sent his horse like he was supposed to.  He gave it the old college try.  It didn’t work.   What’s that famous saying folks like to trot out from time to time to sound uber-intelligent?   “Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them.”  Well, sounds to me like Jess has learned from the mistakes of the past, and he’s determined not to repeat them.   After all, you don’t become as successful and wealthy as he is without having a keen ability from a decision making standpoint. 

Several weeks ago in the Daily Racing Form, Steven Crist pondered whether it was time to revive the idea of permanently moving the Breeders’ Cup to a “neutral” site like Churchill Downs.  I couldn’t agree more.   Especially if we’re going to pretend that the Classic is our biggest race and should have a major say in determining who our overall champion is.  

“Artificial surfaces produce artificial (dirt) champions.” 

That’s my take.  What’s yours?

 


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Churchill Downs, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita

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