Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek Undefeated Jockey and Living Legend

31 08 2009
It gives me great pleasure to once again welcome Mr. Del Mar, otherwise known as Matthew Galbreth, for another guest author piece.  When we last left him, Matt was galvanizing some ideas he’d been kicking around in his head about how to generate renewed interest for the game.  Now he’s returned with another idea for how to connect with the younger generation that the sport so badly needs.
 
 
Without further adieu, take it away, Matt.
 
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The horse racing world has never seen a talent like this and probably never will again.  Bolt Speedman rode a promising young talent aptly named MEGA HORSE, who he also owns, to victory at Hollywood Park June 30th only to retire that same day with a one for one undefeated record.  Maybe some of you have never heard of Bolt Speedman, but many of you probably have heard of Pro Skateboarder and MTV star Rob Dyrdek.  Mr. Dyrdek has many talents and goes by many names, some of you may know him as R&B sensation Bobby Light.  I think his most impressive performance yet came on the day the man wore the soon to be legendary DC silks.
 
 
The entire horse racing industry knows the importance of attracting new fans, horseplayers and owners to our sport.  Recently the industry has been on the right track by trying to attract more youth to our sport. With Mr. Dyrdek involved and the beach culture that Del Mar happily attracts every season we may just get some new youthful fans that challenge the notion that horse racing is a sport for the wealthy and may not be the sport of kings, it’s a sport for everyone.  This is evident in TVG’s Pick 4 Posse and has always been a main staple of my favorite track’s marketing strategy, Del Mar.  Horse racing has been called the sport of kings, long before that and still to this day surfing is also called the sport of kings.  The battle for this namesake finds neutral ground under the white California Flag of truce where the surf meets the turf at old Del Mar.
 
I’m sure some of you are wondering, surfing the sport of kings?  That’s right.  When Captain James Cook first discovered the Hawaiian Islands in 1778 he found what seemed to him some rather strange behavior from the natives.  He saw them standing on strange wooden planks and moving effortlessly along the face of breaking waves.  He was even more shocked to see the royalty of this culture take part in this activity and be for what seemed to him inappropriately dressed for monarchy.  The ancient Hawaiian royals even had surfboards shaped to give them an edge on their subjects and special locations where only royalty could take part in this strange activity, hence he deemed it the sport of kings.
 
I’m on the wrong side of 25, but still hold the tag of a 20 something.  Most of my friends are around my same age and most of them have very different and usually negative opinions about my pursuit of being a true professional horseplayer and my love of the game.  They change their tune when Del Mar is open and ask me for handicapping advice on a daily basis.  Why is this?  It’s because they are not going there for horse racing they are going there for dollar beers, a chance at meeting the lovely ladies in attendance and a day of enjoying the view of the Pacific.  Many of them, especially those who made some money off my plays, end up fans of our sport simply by getting in the door and having a chance to see these amazing equine athletes.  I wish Del Mar was open more often as it seems to be our best chance at making horse racing cool and bringing in some new fans.
 
Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek may have done just as much for our sport in just one episode of his hit MTV show “Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory” as all the top horse racing marketing researchers have in a year.  I would hope all of you try to watch this episode, maybe use the old DVR as a way to return the favor he has done for all of us tune in on Thursday nights and fling this man some ratings, I started doing it for Jim Rome for the same reasons.
 
I have another idea that goes beyond just Mr. Dyrdek.  When the many celebrities that love horse racing attend the track let’s roll out the red carpet, let’s treat them like royalty and let’s try to make them more visible and more vocal about our beloved sport.  Maybe have a Rob Dyrdek day where we invite many action sports superstars to watch MEGA HORSE trounce the competition.  If there are concerns about having so many young people there on one day, I think that can be resolved by giving them a place to go.  Maybe set a section aside for the 20 somethings where they can all hang out in the same area and have a different place for families to go, maybe the infield, here’s another one… how about pony rides for the kids in the infield, a strong presence of security and a daycare facility where the parents can drop them off for an hour or two and enjoy some time as a couple.
 
 
It can be done my good friends and I think the time to hesitate is through, let’s see horse racing break on through to the other side.  The side of major network coverage, the side where the newcomers don’t feel intimidated, but welcomed, the side where there are many different ways to enjoy the track and everyone has a place just for them.  If you see someone new at the track or online at sites like the TVG Community help them, I promise you it won’t cut into your win odds much if any at all and you may have a lot more fun, I am.  This may not be the sport of kings stateside, leave that for the Europeans, we are democratic and united baby.  Let’s see that California Flag and the DC silks more and more, and let’s all give a big hand to Bolt Speedman a brave man who climbed on one these beasts and rode it to victory in his very first start as a jockey.
 
Mr. Del Mar AKA Matthew Galbreth 

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Categories : Del Mar, Fantasy Horse Racing, Hollywood Park, horse racing

The Presence of Fillies at the Track

27 08 2009
Ladies and gentlemen, it gives me great honor to welcome back the one and only Mr. Del Mar, Matthew Galbreth, the young man we first heard from last week with his accurate prediction of California Flag rising to the occasion in the Green Flash Handicap.  He’s now returned to share one of his ideas for increasing public interest in thoroughbred racing.
 
I think it’s infinitely important that we listen closely to the 20-somethings we have been lucky enough to attract to the sport thus far so as to better understand what they (and folks like them) are thinking.  Obviously the old ways aren’t quite working as they should, and in this age of “hope and change” it’s important to consider all opportunities we are afforded.
 
Of course, I must also point out that I do believe this marks the first time “cougars” have entered the discussion here at The Aspiring Horseplayer – a momentous occasion, indeed!  :)
 
 
Once again, here’s Mr. Del Mar, showing us that he’s more than just a one-trick-pony “handicapping machine.”
 
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It’s been said that girls make the world go ’round and it may well be true when it comes to our sport and it’s success.  RACHEL ALEXANDRA and ZENYATTA have been at the forefront of racing for so long that I don’t know if I’m beating a dead horse or writing about a hot topic, maybe both.  These ladies have so much star power that people bring signs to the track and are the only two horses I know who have such a following.  It’s very refreshing to see fans take an interest in this sudden girl power phenomenon and horse racing finally have stars that aren’t going directly into the breeding world after a brief campaign… these girls are here to race. 
 
The other girl power phenomenon is taking place at the track everyday and on TVG on Friday nights, it is the beautiful girls in attendance and the beautiful girls of the Del Mar Pick 4 Posse.  Del Mar always has beautiful girls in attendance from fillies to cougars and it serves the track well by attracting the colts that may not have attended otherwise, our future horseplayers.  I say we let the fairer gender take the reigns for a while and see if horse racing can build a younger audience, a new audience and be lifted back to it’s glory days.  We all want to see these two horses face off, but the connections of each are treading lightly and that’s because these girls have very different styles and very big reputations to uphold.  I may have an idea that would be fair to both camps… THE TRIPLE TIARA.
 
I became a true horseplayer by way of the hype and major network attention that is The Triple Crown, I’m sure many late bloomers have a similar story.  From morning radio talk shows to ESPN highlights this crown jewel of racing gets more attention than an ill behaved child.  It’s main strength is the lengthy spotlight that it shines on horse racing, a good three months of major coverage.  I propose we have a similar feature and deem it THE TRIPLE TIARA. 
 
We need to harness the star power of ZENYATTA and RACHEL ALEXANDRA so I say we have three races at three different tracks with the only requirement being gender, all age groups, any country or state of origin, just so long as the horses are female.  It would be everything the Triple Crown is, but way better.  We had a weak Triple Crown this year with the better half of the field not racing in the Derby and this may just make up for it.
 
Can you imagine the handle at each track if ZENYATTA, RACHEL ALEXANDRA, maybe GOLDIKOVA and throw in some other femme fatales from around the globe took all the debates to the ticket windows?  Oh my fellow horseplayers it can be done with the right size purse and we will have very large pools to bet into.
 
Now for another way to grow our sport and it’s taking place everyday when tracks like Del Mar and Keeneland are open.  Horse racing has become a fashion show for the ladies who enjoy visiting the track.  Del Mar is especially strong with this maneuver and it’s the only reason many of my friends attend.  I’m 27 years old and most of the people I know like making money, like pretty girls, but have little interest in horse racing.  I get calls for handicapping advice everyday Del Mar is open and the rest of the year I hear nothing about horse racing from these gents.  I say girls get in free, dress to the nines and we provide them with other things to do outside of watching the races.  Shopping?  I don’t know, but I do know that we have quite a few female horseplayers and I wonder if they originally got into horse racing by way of the track experience and the way many networks show the track fashions and it’s live models.  Horses are amazing to watch, girls are amazing to watch and who doesn’t like making money.  I say we take our sport to the next level by letting the girls be the show on the track and at the track.
 
Mr. Del Mar AKA Matthew Galbreth 

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Categories : Del Mar, horse racing, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Saturday Selections – 8/22/09

21 08 2009

After an exciting week that included an opportunity to feature a new guest writer break his blogging maiden successfully with California Flag on Wednesday in the Green Flag Handicap, we return this weekend with Saturday Selections for the major races at Monmouth Park, Laurel Park, Saratoga, and Del Mar. 

Obviously the big news of the weekend is the possibility that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could meet in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park on October 3, with TVG-Betfair upping the stakes by $400k and promising a $1 million total purse if both super horses wind up competing.  It’s probably still unlikely this will happen as we all want, but If nothing else it feels the closest we’ve been all year to the much anticipated and hoped for matchup.  Only time will tell if it comes to fruition. 

For now though, we’ll focus on the runners who are definitely racing (late scratches obviously exempted from that statement) this weekend.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9 – The Phillip H. Iselin (Grade 3) – 1 1/8 Miles

  • #5 Coal Play (2/1*)
  • #4 You and I Forever (6/1)
  • #3 Solar Flare (3/1)

We kick things off with the 75th running of the Phillip Iselin at Monmouth Park.  The entire field is filled with “older” horses (over 3-years-old), and some familiar names dot the list including Coal Play, Solar Flare, Chirac and Researcher.

Coal Play is the obvious “horse for the course” selection by virtue of his 3 wins in 5 starts over the Monmouth dirt, as well as place and show finishes.  He’s got the speed to really take it to this grouping provided he gets a good trip.   No doubt he’ll be hammered at the betting windows, so if you’re looking for a price you won’t be happy.

The rest of the field appears relatively evenly matched on paper, but two horses jump out to me; You and I Forever and Solar Flare.  If you can forgive the last our performance against weaker competition over the slop at Churchill, You and I Forever has some sneaky class to consider.   If you’re a Beyer Speed Figure player, note that he posted a 104 mark at this distance last summer at Saratoga.  That being said, he is winless at 4 tries going a mile and an eighth.  Still, I give him a big chance to hit the board here.

Solar Flare has the always dangerous Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combination working in his favor (26% in the last year).  Like the favorite, who he’s chased before, he seems to enjoy the surface at Monmouth.  I prefer his recent form over that of other contenders like Researcher and Chirac.

I’ll play the heavy favorite on top with Solar Flare and You and I Forever underneath in the exacta.  For the trifecta, you can add in Researcher, Chirac, and Actin Good to the bottom of the ticket.

  • $1 Exacta: 5/3,4 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 5/3,4/ 1,2,3,4,7 ($8)

 

Laurel Park – Race 9 – The  Pearl  Necklace ($50k) – 1 1/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Blind Date (7/5*)
  • #7 Ravenous (5/2)
  • #2 Hogan Beach (8/1)

Saturday’s running of the Pearl Necklace at Laurel Park for Maryland bred 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles over the turf appears to be a two horse race on paper.

Hamilton Smith sends out Blind Date who will be looking for her 5th victory in her last 6 starts.  The daughter of Not For Love (Mr. Prospector) towers over the competition from a class perspective by virtue of being the only stakes winner in the field (and in her case, a multiple stakes winner, including the Grade 3 Virginia Oaks).

To win, she’ll need to chase down the speedy Ravenous from trainer Richard Small’s barn. The daughter of Bowman’s Band would appear to be the likely pace setter, and while she’s bound to get her stiffest test yet has shown the ability to wire the field at this distance.

I’ll play the class of Blind Date on top with the speedy Ravenous underneath. To round out the trifecta, I’d consider using both #2 Hogan’s Beach and #1 Southern Charmer, who could both be moving well late.

  • $1 Exacta: (Box) 7,9 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 9/7/1,2 ($2)

 

Saratoga – Race 10 – The Alabama (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles

  • #8 Milwaukee Appeal (9/2)
  • #3 Funny Moon (4/1)
  • #5 Careless Jewel (5/2*)

We move to the hallowed grounds of Saratoga for the 129th running of the Alabama, a race that has a bit of extra meaning for being as that I’m a native son of the land of the Crimson Tide.  You know one thing about us Alabamians – having been spoiled with the greatness of Bear Bryant, we like winners…and consistency.

If we were going to go just on straight winning consistency, we’d be winding up with the chalk, Careless Jewel as our top selection.  Obviously the daughter of Tapit has been a model of consistency winning three straight races since her debut, largely in speedy gate-to-wire fashion, including a smashing domination of the Delaware Oaks last out on July 18.  Two things stack up against her here today, however; class and distance.  She’s thus far unproven going the 1 1/4 mile distance, and clearly, despite being a certified Grade 2 winner, she’s never faced quite as tough a field as this.

For those reason, and in an effort to try and beat the chalk with at least one of these picks, I’m turning my attention to the Canadian bred filly Milwaukee Appeal.  I actually liked this filly against the Canadian boys in the Princes of Wales and the Queens Plate, and she ran very respectably in each race.  I’m hoping her odds hold close to the morning line of 9/2, as she offers real value at that price, but I suspect they’ll come down just a bit once wagering opens.  She ran her heart out in the Prince of Wales, which tells me she’s versatile enough to handle the dirt just fine.  Her Beyer figures might not be sexy, but she’s a tough cookie in the stretch. 

Funny Moon also warrants a good deal of respect.  Remember that consistency angle I mentioned earlier? Well, it’s hard to be more consistent than jockey Alan Garcia has been so far at the Saratoga meet.  He’s managed to really shine in an incredibly tough jockey colony at Saratoga and gives his horses a big shot in seemingly every race. 

This is a very deep field, so it’s not like the other horses I haven’t mentioned don’t have solid chances as well.  I could make a case for just about anyone, but would definitely think about including Don’t Forget Gil and Casanova Move on the exotics. 

This ought to be a good one, arguably the “race of the day.”

  • $1 Exacta: 3,8/ 3,5,8 ($4)
  • $1 Trifecta: 3,8/3,5,8/3,4,5,7,8 ($12)

 

Del Mar – Race 8 – The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #5 Well Monied (5/2*)
  • #8 Hameildaeme (12/1)
  • #9 Lexlenos (8/1)

The 53rd running of the Del Mar Oaks would seem to be all about Well Monied, the impressive daughter of Maria’s Mon (Wavering Monarch) who has run big at both the Grade 2 and Grade 1 level in recent efforts and owns a perfect 2 for 2 record at the 1 1/8 mile distance.  Taking her on will be two stakes winners in Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks.  While I like the favorite here on top, I’m looking for value underneath. Well Monied will be a force if she runs her patented race – that much is certain.  I’m not sure if any of the horses in this field can beat her without a bit of racing luck, but there could definitely be some shots that hit the board underneath her.

That being said, do be a bit careful in banking too heavily on Well Monied, as jockey Joel Rosario, despite having a sensational Del Mar meet, has had some trouble getting wins over the turf.  If she falters, which is definitely possible, then we’d probably see a price explosion on the tote. The only trouble is that chalk has been exceptionally tough to defeat at Del Mar so far this week.  Thursday was a veritable chalk-fest, and as of this writing, the Friday card seems to be much the same.

Hameildaeme is a runner who seems to be slowly putting it all together.  If you read Jay Hovdey’s excellently insightful article in the Saturday edition of the Daily Racing Form, you know that her connections feel she may be a good one…if they can get her into the gate without losing her mind.  I went back and looked at her effort in the San Clemente against Starlarks and Strawberry Tart and saw enough to give her a shot here to turn the tables on them with a better overall trip. 

Lexlenos has run into Well Monied in consecutive races, as well as the very sharp Gozzip Girl, who is probably a shade better right now than Well Monied as far as 3-year-old turf fillies are concerned (as evidenced by Gozzip Girl’s 3 1/4 length victory over Well Monied in the Grade 1 American Oaks).  If those fillies are among the best of the 3-year-old turfers, than Lexlenos has to be respected as an exacta/trifecta consideration by virtue of her 3rd place finishes in the last two efforts.

This might be a race to go a bit deep underneath, for as mentioned earlier, it’s filled with horses who have a shot.  I’ll add in Internallyflawless, Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks to the equation underneath.

  • $1 Exacta: 5/ 8,9 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 5/ 8,9/ 1,6,7,8,9 ($8)

Best of luck to everyone and happy Saturday betting!


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Categories : Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Laurel Park, Monmouth Park, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, Zenyatta

Why the California Flag will fly at Del Mar

18 08 2009

It brings me great honor to introduce a guest blogger to you all for this week.  Ladies and gentlemen, please meet Matthew Galbreth, better known as “MrDelMar” over on the TVG Community message boards. 

Matt has brought his passion and love for the game to the TVG Community each night, and is most famous for tirelessly organizing the Community version of the “Pick 4 Posse” – even gaining mention from on-air hosts Ken Rudolph, Simon Bray, and Todd Schrupp. 

I asked Matt to stop over and author a few guest posts if he was interested as he’s the type of guy who has an infectious love of the game.  These are his first public writing forays, so I hope everyone will give him a warm reception and encourage him to share more thoughts whenever the mood strikes him.  He’s got an open invitation to do so here anytime he wishes.

Who knows? With a little luck, perhaps he’ll take to this whole blogging thing and become a future TBA blogger?

Without further adieu, meet Mr.DelMar – Matthew Galbreth.

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In Wednesday’s feature race where the turf meets the surf at Old Del Mar in the Green Flash Handicap we have a turf sprinting monster on our hands in CALIFORNIA FLAG.  Happy horses are bed in California like our 5 year old gelding here.  This horse is California in every way, he loves himself some R & R, as you will see from his record off the layoff and takes to the grass very well.  I think there is no better place for a horse like this to race than right near the beach.

I’ve seen this beast run many times and embarrass his rivals, this horse wins for fun or just isn’t into it.  He may very well be a need the lead type, but with smokin’ Joe on board, if there’s a gap they’re getting through it.  It’s not that this horse can’t rate, he’s never tried it.  CALIFORNIA FLAG is so fast that all we’ve seen is him take the lead or duel for it.  Maybe he can rate or maybe not, but at five furlongs who cares?  I’m well aware of the statistic of wins from off the pace at five furlongs on turf, but this horse has already faced many of the same rivals and crushed them.  If you look to his record on this exact course and distance, he is one for two.  You also may notice that his only loss on this course came before he had broken his maiden at the maiden special weight level in his third career start.  Last time this horse raced this course he won by a neck and beat one of today’s rivals in EUROGLIDE by almost two lengths.
 
 
California Flag runs away with the Hollywood Turf Express – 11/29/08
 
CALIFORNIA FLAG is similar to LAVA MAN in that their strength comes from their sure footedness.  Both of these horses have won their races on the turns and both love to win races, even as older geldings… old pros if you like.  I think the spotlight should be on this race and on this horse tomorrow and it’s really up to CALIFORNIA FLAG to score one for California today, to score one for Californians at the most California track there is. 
 
Enjoy this horse, enjoy this race, enjoy Del Mar, make sure to wear your shades so you can check out the girls and go hit the beach after you cash yourself a winner.  It’s a great time to visit Del Mar and I hope everyone makes the most of it, the season is short you know.
 
Mr. Del Mar AKA Matthew Galbreth

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The Eye is Mightier Than the Pen

28 07 2009

Edward Bulwer-Lytton authored the famous line “the pen is mightier than the sword” in his 1839 work “Richeliu; or The Conspiracy.”  While his immediate focus was on a now obscure 17th century French Cardinal, he inadvertently provided writers with a powerful quote that could be used to fit any number of circumstances.  Indeed, over the ages this quote has been brandished in attempts to remind nations, states, and other assorted groupings of people that shrewd diplomacy should be a preferred course of action over armed conflict. 

Today we’ll use the quote for a slightly different purpose; that of observing horses prior to a race.  To begin with, we’ll need to adjust the wording a bit.  No longer shall the “pen” remain the dominant feature of the quote.  While we may not have a sword at our immediate disposal, no doubt each handicapper has himself (or herself) a trusted writing utensil with which to document picks, observations, and analysis.  It’s a little exercise we affectionately refer to as “handicapping” which often our own closest friends and immediate family fail to understand. 

In the world of thoroughbred handicapping, the pen and the notations it makes upon a fresh copy of the Daily Racing Form, or “the sheets”, or perhaps even a local track program, go a long way in determining what our final wagers will be at the window.  Many more highly esteemed authors on the subject than I  have noted that handicapping itself is only half the battle – the other half being using those insights to wager properly.  It is my contention, however, based on recent experience, that when all is said and done the eye is the tool we should trust far more than any stroke of the pen. 

Allow me to explain in detail.

How many of us have faced the following experience on numerous occasions?  You stay up late into the evening, slaving over a particularly challenging card.  You take everything into consideration: class hikes and drops, form cycles, fractional times, equipment changes, jockey changes.  If it can be inferred from the data available to you, it is considered and reconsidered in the labor of love that goes into the selection making process.  You jot down your picks, and probably even rank them according to preference.  You might even spend time visualizing your horse and how they will prevail.  With your selections thus confidently made, you journey off into slumberland dreaming of the riches that await a successful day of wagering on the ‘morrow.

Then, as race day approaches, you finally catch a glimpse of the runners you agonized over the night before.  Suddenly the names and form on paper are revealed in their full living embodiment – only something isn’t quite right.  That “sure thing” you were so confident of last night suddenly doesn’t look anywhere near as attractive in the paddock.  His/Her coat is sweaty, or the horse appears to not be enjoying the surroundings.  Even worse, a horse who you thought had absolutely no chance of competing makes an entirely opposite impression and appears to be the standout of the post parade.

What to do?

Call me crazy, but at this point in the process I believe it to be absolutely foolhardy to stick with the “paper” selections and ignore that which your eyes are allowing you to see.  For starters, the information on the paper in front of you can really only lead you to a “guess” or an “approximation” of the horse’s talents and abilities.  It must be remembered, however, that you aren’t wagering on one of the horse’s past performances.  You’re wagering on how they will run TODAY.  While all the work you have done can certainly provide valuable “clues”, they are by no means a foregone conclusion.

And therein lies the proverbial dilemma.  Often we become so wed to our selections, and so paralyzed with fear that if we don’t wager them, we will appear foolish if they wind up defeating our tickets.  If there’s one characterization that is used to define horseplayers more so than any other (beyond being “opinionated”), it’s that we have a propensity to be acutely stubborn in our ways, and totally resistant to change.  We believe our methods to be tried and true.  Our information to be more reliable than the next guy’s, and most importantly, our intuition to be of a higher degree of accuracy than those we are wagering against. 

Another way of looking at this might be to suggest that we are inflicted with the infamous “pride before the fall.”  Not that there’s anything necessarily wrong with being confident in our picks.  Truth be told you probably shouldn’t wager a red cent on anything you believe to be a totally random investment, with no degree of opinion as to it’s prospects for failure or success.  It’s just that one must also be acutely aware of their own fallibility.  As genius as we all believe ourselves to be in the moments leading up to the race, it takes only one false step or bit of bad racing luck to wind up feeling like the court jester, complete with egg on the face and foot in the mouth.  Trust me…Ive been there way too many times for my liking.

The above situation is one that dogs me frequently, and I suspect is an all too common situation that most “public handicappers” face.  It’s tough to make predictions a day in advance and then actually follow them through the next day.  So much changes on the fly.  First, there’s the unavoidable “second guessing” that you will drag yourself through.  “Did I think of everything?”  Then, there’s the changes and scratches that are announced an hour before the first post time.  Often, these adjustments change the entire complexion of a race.  Finally, there’s the post parade itself.  The first opportunity to see the horses in person and allow your eyes to cast judgement.  I don’t have empirical evidence to support this, but I can tell you that it feels like as many as 50% of my “selections” change to some degree (sometimes entirely) based on appearances in the post parade. 

Of the numerous examples that come to mind, the one I often fall back on is the 2007 Belmont Stakes.  Being the self appointed “world’s biggest Curlin fan,” I was very pleased with his appearance in the post parade.  I thought he looked a million bucks, even if somewhat tired in the eyes.  That was to be expected given his grueling series of prep races leading up to his efforts in the Derby and the Preakness.  He appeared to be a lock.  Just then, the cameras went past Rags to Riches.  “My god!” I thought.  I hadn’t considered it was possible for a horse to make a sharper post parade appearance than Curlin, yet somehow this filly looked even more magnificent.  Swallowing a healthy doze of Curlin-infatuated pride, I cleared the 5 feet of distance between our sofa and computer in record time to place a sizeable wager on her.  The rest was history (100 years of Belmont history, to be exact).

Fast forward to our present situation.  If you’ve been following along with the action at Del Mar, than you know that it takes quite a bit of guts to stand behind a favorite thus far at that meet.  We’ve all heard the line that favorites win about 30% of all races. You might be surprised to learn then that through 5 days of racing at Del Mar, post time favorites have only won 5 out of the 47 races run, or roughly 10.6%.  Coincidentally, the average win payout thus far has been roughly $13.96, at odds of roughly 6/1.  Not bad at all for price players.

So what’s that got to do with eyeball handicapping as opposed to conventional paper handicapping?  Well, if you’ve been playing along on “All Access” on TVG, you’ve been able to get a decent look at most of the runners in the fields as they approach the starting gate.  This past Sunday was a perfect lesson in “eyeball handicapping.”  Not a single favorite on the card prevailed.  None.  Notta.  Zilch.  Who did prevail?  Only a steady slew of attractive looking runners at relatively attractive prices, that’s who.

In the opener this Sunday, Box Office Star returned $14.80 at odds of about 6/1.  In my pre-race handicapping, which would’ve been my published picks had I published them, he came up as my 4th choice in the race.  There were simply runners who seemed more interesting on paper.  But in the post parade it was all about Box Office Star.  The same thing happened in the next race with Scorpion Time, who returned a disappointing (for current Del Mar standards) $7.80 to win as second choice at nearly 3/1.   I actually played against that one  despite the fact that he turned up in my “paper” and “eyeball” picks, but I digress.

As the day progressed, Quiet Lightning ($20.20), Millenia ($46.00), Meydan Princess ($17.40), Dewey’s Special ($8.60), Molly McFast ($27.60), Street Royale ($7.80), Unzip Me ($8.40), and Dynamic Range ($9.60) completed the trend of attractive looking horses who made strong impressions in the post parade finding their way to the winner’s circle.  The only horses I didn’t catch in some fashion in this sequence were Meydan Princess and Molly McFast – and namely because I foolishly stuck with my “paper” picks in those races.  Ironically, the only favorite the entire weekend to prevail, Tiny Woods, was arguably the winner who made the weakest post parade impression, if only because his stature reflects his name so well.

By the end of the day I had learned my lesson. In fact, as regular reader Sally Cruikshank from Fun On Mars, Frank Price from RaceHorseDreams , and I celebrated our newly fattened betting accounts following Millenia’s triumph at 22/1 in the 6th race on Sunday, I resolved that never again would I trust the pen over the eye.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still an avid paper handicapper.  Going into a horse race without having done proper handicapping the night before is like going into battle with one boot off.  It’s just that no matter how strong my opinions and beliefs on paper, it seems clear that the secret for success is to be flexible enough to see through the mistaken assumptions of one’s selections as they are confronted with real time information while veiweing the horse in the post parade. 

And let’s be honest – who amongst us claims to be an “expert” at picking horse flesh?  Not I, for sure.  Their are exhaustive works on the subject which should be consulted properly before toying with the idea of even becoming anything close to an expert.  It’s just that the eyes don’t lie.  There is no “darkened form” when viewing a horse in the paddock.  All they see, with a little training,  is truth – and that my friends is what we should be wagering on.  Truth over hype.  The hidden truth in the past performances over the obvious assumptions available to anyone with a program in hand.  The mistakenly overlooked at the window instead of the mistakenly hammered. 

Because when all is said and done, in our old age, who amongst us wouldn’t like to sit back like Robert DeNiro’s Ace Rothstein character at the end of “Casino”:  oversized sunglasses on our face, Daily Racing Form spread out beneath us, noting to ourselves that after all these years, we ”can still pick a winner.”

And with that, I’m off to Kentucky to see Curlin.  Hopefully upon our return we’ll have the honor of walking Rachel Alexandra and the rest of the Haskell Invitational field to the paddock at Monmouth on Sunday.  It all depends on whether we can hold on and win the “Ultimate Rachel Alexandra Fan” contest that Monmouth is hosting over on Facebook.

We’ll see ya when we return.  And don’t worry, we’ll give Curlin everyone’s love and well wishes. 

Here’s hoping we see some of you at the Haskell this weekend.


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Categories : Del Mar, horse racing

Saturday Selections – 7/25/09

24 07 2009

Things are fairly quiet on the graded stakes front this weekend, with the Eddie Read and the Coaching Club American Oaks being the marquee races of the weekend.  In all honesty, a quiet weekend couldn’t come at a better spot for your’s truly, as I attempt to recuperate from the trip to Fair Hill and Delaware Park last Sunday, and look to rest up a bit before our voyage to Kentucky to see Curlin and New Jersey to see Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell looming on the near horizon.

We’ll only be focusing on 3 races this weekend, as we take a cautious approach at wading into the surf and turf waters of Del Mar with the Eddie Read and the Fleet Treat, and look to wrap things up at more familiar stomping grounds at Belmont with the Coaching Club American Oaks.  While we’ll be focusing on the larger races of the day from a stakes perspective, don’t forget about the little guys running in the Claiming Crown races at Canterbury.  Ted Grevelis will be “live blogging” covering the Claiming Crown races over at Owning racehorses.  Do pay him a visit if you get the chance.

 

Belmont Race 9 – The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:17 ET)

  • #1 Livin Lovin (3/1)
  • #2 Wynning Ride (8/1)
  • #7 Hightap (5/1)

The 93rd running of the CCAO lost a bit of potential luster when the connections of Rachel Alexandra decided to instead point towards the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, but all that really means is that we’ve got a more wide open betting affair before us.  In fact, in my opinion it feels like a situation where we can play against the favorite, #8 Funny Moon, quite confidently.

This is because Funny Moon seemingly requires moisture on the track to win.  I’ll be honest and admit I’ve no idea what the forecast for Belmont looks like tomorrow.  If it’s anything like what we’ve experienced the last few days, there has been periods of heavy rain, but ultimately the prospects for Saturday appear quite appealing with lots of sunshine predicted.   That would seem to make Funny Moon a tough selection to support at low odds, given the 3 victories over wet surfaces and the 0 for 2 mark over fast/dry tracks.

Livin Lovin is the horse that intrigues me the most in this field.  The daughter of Birdstone was originally entered in both the Delaware Oaks and the Del Cap last weekend, but scratched from each in order to run here.  That makes me think that trainer Steve Klesaris thinks his runner is sitting on a big one.  While she finished 4th last out in the Acorn over the Belmont surface, it wasn’t all that bad an effort given that she had been off since November.  She achieved a career high Beyer of 91 on a day when Gabby’s Golden Gal absolutely freaked, and the place horse, Justwhistledixie, would likely be heavily favored over this field.  She’s the pick as I’m guessing she’ll enjoy the added distance of the CCOA.  

Bob Baffert would appear to have himself an “x-factor” horse in Wynning Ride.  The daughter of Candy Ride has never been off the synthetics in 5 lifetime efforts, but if her workout on 7/13 at Belmont is any indication (5 furlongs in :59 and change), she ought to handle the surface just fine.  Also note some of the runners in her past performance lines that she’s run into; Laragh, Evita Argentina, Milwaukee Appeal.  Don’t be shocked if she moves forward in her first dirt effort is all I’m saying.

Lastly, I thought you had to keep an eye on Steve Asmussen’s runner Hightap.  The daughter of Tapit looks plenty formidable if you draw a line through her effort in the Honeybee back in March.  Even more appealing is the fact that she defeated Peach Brew last out, and that runner came back a winner last weekend. 

 

Del Mar Race 6 – The Fleet Treat ($100k) – 7 Furlongs (4:35 PT)

  • #4 Dani Reese (5/1)
  • #8 Saucey Evening (5/2*)
  • #6 Ultra Blend (7/2)

We head out west for the 24th running of the Fleet Treat at Del Mar.  First things first, through Thursday, only 2 favorites had proven victorious in the first 18 races run at the meet.  In other words, you probably fared better throwing darts at the wall then you did trying to pick logical winners.  Oh those tricky synthetic surfaces!  Even more perplexing is that the Fleet Treat is run at the always tricky 7 furlong distance.  So what’s a handicapper to do?

While I’d love to pick Saucey Evening here as my top choice, being as that I was able to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stable barn at Fair Hill last weekend and hang out a bit with Cherokee Artist, Icabad Crane, and the beloved Better Talk Now, I was a bit surprised to see the morning line favoritism of 5/2 bestowed upon her.  Especially with Ultra Blend’s slightly more impressive Beyer figures.  I guess that’s what multiple stakes victories will do for a runner like Saucey Evening.  There goes my hope for value.  :-)

With this in mind, I’ve turned my primary attention to the lightly raced Dani Reese.  The daughter of High Demand was only a $14,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, and now she finds herself running in stakes company after two impressive performances at the maiden level and against open company at Hollywood.  We’ll find out what she’s made of this weekend as she gets the proverbial “acid test.”  The odds do feel right though from a risk/reward perspective at 5/1.  It’s also interesting to note that with the scratch of #2 Gold Goddess, Dani Reese is likely to get the lead all to herself.  Can she hold ‘em off in the stretch?  That’ll be the question she’ll have to answer.  Ultra Blend and Saucey Evening should be coming late trying to gun her down at the wire.

Speaking of the scratch of Gold Goddess, do note that this has freed up the services of jockey Joel Rosario.  As I was typing this, information came through on Facebook from a trusted source that Rosario will replace the injured Rafael Bejarano aboard Saucey Evening.

 

Del Mar Race 8 – The Eddie Read Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf (5:35 PT)

  • #1 Monterey Jazz (2/1*)
  • #8 Whatsthescript (3/1)
  • #4 Thorn Song (8/1)

Remember all that talk in the previous race about how favorites were only 2 for 18 through Thursday at Del Mar?  Yeah…looks like I followed my own advice about that tidbit for all of one race, as I’m back squarely on the chalk here for the 36th running of the Eddie Read Handicap.

Here’s the deal. Whatsthescript is a horse that I’ve supported time and again since last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and he just keeps burning me.  Maybe by getting off him today I’ll help him find the winner’s circle?  He’s definitely got the “horse for the course” angle going in his favor with $260,000 in earnings thus far in 2 races over the Del Mar turf.  Further, the Del Mar turf should, at least in theory, prove a bit easier to close into than the Hollywood turf, which was widely considered very speed favoring over the recently concluded spring/summer meet.

It’s just that Monterrey Jazz might be much the better horse now.  Even trainer John Sadler concedes that Whatsthescript might not have been able to catch Monterrey Jazz on his best day in the American Handicap on July 4.  If Monterrey Jazz is allowed to get loose on the lead, this one should become academic.

But, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and the entry of Thorn Song in this race might be just what the doctor ordered for Whatsthescript.  That’s “if” he can keep Monterrey Jazz company on the front and force him to earn it in the stretch.  If he does, suddenly things get much better for the off the pace runners here. 

Ultimately, I didn’t anticipate this opening up for the late closers like Dakota Phone and Global Hunter, but stranger things have certainly happened.  For the Pick 6 and Pick 4 players here, I think you’re probably safe covering Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript, or perhaps taking a stand on one or the other depending on how you feel the pace scenario will play out here in the Eddie Read.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for a safe return for all horses and jockeys.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, horse racing

Sunday Quick Hits – Pacific Classic could set up for Go Between

24 08 2008

Let me just start off by saluting “the Colonel.”  We were away most of the day yesterday, so I didn’t get to see the Travers until last night.  When I saw that Colonel John had won, my first reaction was “huh????” I had convinced myself that it was foolhardy to run the colt over dirt again after his Kentucky Derby run.  In so doing I broke one of my cardinal rules in handicapping.  Think about it – if Colonel John was good enough for me to give out against Big Brown in the Derby, shouldn’t he have been good enough for me to give out in the Travers?  Alas, I didn’t give him out (I sided with Harlem Rocker), and he goes on to nail Mambo in Seattle at the wire by a nose bob. 

This means I’m seeking a bit of redemption heading into Sunday.  I’m going to focus on Del Mar since we’ve got the Pacific Classic and a bevy of other good stakes races to ponder.  I love playing these “all stakes” pick 4′s, and Del Mar has one for us in races 7 through 10 on Sunday.

Starting with the Rancho Bernardo (Grade 2) in race 7, I like #3 Magnificence here.  She’s going to have to turn the tables on main rival #7 Dearest Tricksi, but I fully expect this to happen.  Dearest Tricksi handed Magnificence her first defeat last time out, and I keep coming up with these guys as the top two for the Rancho Bernardo.  Underneath those two I’d play #1 Silky Smooth and #6 Lethal Heat.

3/1,7/1,6,7 ($4)

Moving on to the Grade 2 Pat O’ Brien in race 8, we’ve got what appers to be a heck of a sprint on paper.  #3 Midnight Lute won the Breeder’s Cup Sprint last year and looks like a serious player here.  Don’t discount #8 In Summation though.  I’ll let you in on a little tidbit that might interest you.  A few weeks ago I was off from work one afternoon and was conversing with TVG’s Rich Perloff.  I asked him who he thought would in a sprint battle between Benny the Bull and Street Boss, two of the best sprinters in the nation.  Rich came back and said In Summation is the horse he’d want to see in that race.  I’ve gone back and watched some of In Summation’s races and have officially jumped on the bandwagon (though I’d still take Street Boss in the theoretical race just described).  Underneath these top two I’ll use #6 Barbecue Eddie and #2 Rebellion. 

8/3,6/2,3,6 ($4)

Moving on to the Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2), I think this race is all about #8 Daytona. If the “real” Daytona shows up than the others should be running for place and show.  If he doesn’t show up, than things open up a bit for several contenders.  #10 Monzante and #4 Whatsthescript look like the two major challengers, and I’ll play both of them underneath for place on the trifecta.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in #3 Storm Military.

8/4,10/3,4,10 ($4)

The feature race of the day is obviously the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.  When looking over this field it looks like a lot of speed has signed on . As such, I’m looking for a runner who should benefit from the pace up front, and I keep winding up with #6 Go Between and #10 Student Council.  Of those two I prefer Go Between, although Student Council is a horse that has burned me before.  #7 Well Armed would be much more attractive to me if there wasn’t as much other speed in the race. I like this guy and thought he returned from Dubai in good form.  He’s the horse I wanted to make “the pick”, but ultimately had to side against.  Of the rest of the runners, I think #4 Surf Cat could be finishing well and has a good shot to hit the board.

6/7,10/4,7,10 ($4)

As for the “all stakes” Pick 4 ticket, my initial opinion would look like this – although I’ll definitely be checking out the post parade of the Rancho Bernardo to finalize my opinion:

  • Race 7: 3, 7
  • Race 8: 3, 8
  • Race 9: 4, 8, 10
  • Race 10: 6, 7, 10

Total cost: $36 (2x2x3x3=36).

Best of luck to everyone who is playing along.  It’s been a while since we’ve had such a totally stacked Sunday card.  Hopefully this is an opportunity to end our weekends on a high note.


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Categories : Del Mar, Handicapping Selections

Del Mar Oaks comes up stacked

15 08 2008

Saturday’s 52nd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, going 1 1/8 miles over the turf, has come up as a very intriguing feature event.  Bettors will have several options available when trying to take down 6/5 favorite Storm Mesa, who seeks an impressive 6th straight  victory for owner Rick Davis andtrainer Bret Calhoun.  The 3-year-old daughter of Sky Mesa took to the turf quite impressively in the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 26 and was able to prevail despite being steadied midway through the race.  A field of 10 will compete for the $350,000 purse.

The field for the Oaks with jockeys and expected morning line odds:

  1. Storm Mesa (E. Martin) – 6/5*
  2. Ginger Pop (R.Migliore) – 12/1
  3. Lethal Heat (R. Bejarano) – 10/1
  4. OceaneMusic (M. Smith) – 15/1
  5. Magical Fantasy (A. Solis) – 20/1
  6. Bel Air Sizzle (C. Potts) - 12/1
  7. Misty Ocean (J. Rosario) – 6/1
  8. Satan’s Circus (G. Gomez) – 5/2
  9. Missit (D. Flores) – 10/1
  10. Million Dollar Run (T. Baze) – 20/1

The early pace could be decent in this one.  Lethal Heat will likely attempt to take the lead early on.  The question for the 3-year-old daughter of Unusual  Heat is going to be the 1 1/8 mile distance.  I’m not expecting that she’ll be able to hold on with such a competitive field here today.  Besides, I think Misty Ocean will be right there with her every step of the way breaking from the 7 hole. 

Ginger Pop and Storm Mesa should be sitting right behind Lethal Heat and Misty Ocean and will look to get first jump turning for home.  Ocean Music, Missit  and Million Dollar Run are not likely to let the leaders get too far away as they attempt to rate as well. 

This could set things up nicely for the closers in here, such as Bel Air Sizzle or Satan’s Circus.  Satan’s Circus in particular looks very playable as the 2nd choice on the morning line.  As noted by Michael Hammersly’s comments in the “a closer look” section of the DRF, this is a filly who has run respectably against the likes of Zarkava.  Zarkava is considered a serious player for the Arc de Triomphe – you know, that prestigious French turf race that Curlin was at one time pointing towards.  Not bad, huh?   It took all Pure Clan had to get past her in the American Oaks last month, andnow she switches to Garrett Gomez.  She ran well enough in the American Oaks to win, with Pure Clan having to punch through horses late while Satan’s Circus bursted to the outside of the fading Raw Silk.  Pure Clan was able to hold on, andClearly Foxy was gaining late, but she looked like a Grade 1 winner that day and if anyone is going to stop the consecutive race streak of Storm Mesa here today, it’ll be Satan’s Circus.

It would be hard to imagine Storm Mesa not finishing in the exacta (at least).  In fact, if s he keeps running like she has this whole thing could be over before it’s begun. I just think 6/5 is a bit tough to swallow here.  As she’s “classed up”, the competition has been getting closer to her, and then there’s the issue of the distance in the Oaks.  Is 1 1/4 miles a good fit for her, and are you confident enough to take 6/5 on that?  I think the world of her, but I’ll be playing against her today.  She’ll likely get a beautiful trip and I wouldn’t worry at all about her being on the turf.  Her San Clemente win was much more impressive than the Beyer figure or the running line as a whole suggest.  Obviously you play against a winner of 5 straight races at your own risk.  She has my respect, she won’t have my prime wagering dollars.

I’m thinking Misty Ocean has a chance to hang around for a minor award unless she gets absolutely toasted on the front.  If her and Ginger Pop go at it up front they are likely both gone when it counts.  As such, I’ll also add in the French invader, Oceane Music.  It looks like she’ll get a nice trip just like Storm Mesa tracking the leaders.   In fact, she could be good enough to crack the exacta.  On the other hand, it will be her U.S. debut so make sure you get a look at her in the post parade for any clues on how she may run.  If she doesn’t make a good impression, Bel Air Sizzle or Missit would likely make a useful alternative in the wagering.

8/1,4,7/1,4,7


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