The cream rises to the top

13 06 2010

Following a turbulent spring in which the 3-year-old division never really sorted itself out the way many of us had hoped – this Saturday provided an opportunity to establish a firm sense of where things stood among the ranks of older females and males.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra had been the subject of intense scrutiny and conjecture – as friends and foes alike pondered what had happened to the killer instinct with which the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro had dispatched her challengers over the course of her previous campaign.

Struggling in the stretch against the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle – who while good horses certainly did not appear to be “Rachel beaters” on paper headed into their contests with the champ – had left a foul taste in many folks mouths.  Tensions were running so high that there were calls for her to be retired – and even exercise jockey Dominic Terry wound up being replaced by Steve Asmussen following some sort of disagreement (Terry, it must be noted, was a fan favorite who routinely conversed over the internet with Rachel’s fans – so this author was sad to see him removed).

Then, of course, there was the looming specter of the “figure 8″ – the singular piece of equipment that had caused so much grief as it seemed that Asmussen was trying to alter the way in which Rachel Alexandra responded to the bit as well as when and where she would make her move while racing.

As noted by Sid Fernando – Rachel Alexandra did not wear the figure 8 when sent to post yesterday for the G2 Fleur de Lis.  The result, as may have been expected, was that the filly ran off the screen again, invoking memories of her victories last year in the Mother Goose, Haskell, and Kentucky Oaks.

While watching the race live, it may not have seemed such a foregone conclusion to her throngs of fans.  It looked for a moment like a repeat of what we had seen against Unrivaled Belle and Zardana.  Rachel collared Jessica is Back and moved to the front, but then Distinctive Dixie seemed poised to pounce on her.

It was then that something peculiar happened.  Rather than allow a “lesser” horse to surge past her as she had done both times this year, Rachel seemed to remember who she was, digging down deep to procure a semblance of that greatness.  She pulled away brilliantly in the stretch, and with a furlong to go the races was as good as over.

Full results chart from Equibase

The final margin put her at 10 1/2 lengths in front of Distinctive Dixie, crossing the wire in the 1 1/8 mile race in 1:48.78.   The distance and time are not insignificant as just 4 races later many of the top older males in the land would go the same route in the G1 Stephen Foster.

Comparing the two races directly is a bit difficult to do – as the Stephen Foster featured a full field of 11 runners who were quite comfortable setting  a much slower pace early on (:24.50 and :48.72 as opposed to the :23.93 and :47.25 of the Fleur de Lis).  Still, it’s noteworthy that when Blame stopped the clock after prevailing in the Stephen Foster, he did so almost half a second slower than Rachel at 1:49.37.

Take nothing away from Blame’s performance though.  He absolutely devoured the highly regarded Battle Plan in the stretch, overcoming a highly disadvantageous post position draw in the 11 hole in the process.

We noted headed into Preakness day that we thought Blame was a serious race horse who belonged in the discussion for the best older male in the handicap division – and this performance in the Stephen Foster clearly makes him a horse to keep an eye on as the season progresses towards the Breeders’ Cup championships this fall.

Of course these weren’t the only two horses making  strong appearances.  Thanks to imperfections of racing’s calendar you also had Rail Trip winning the G2 California Stakes at Hollywood Park.  Additionally, there was Life at Ten staging the upset over the aforementioned Unrivaled Belle in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, and Miss Singhsix prevailing in the G3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park (a race that you would be excused for thinking may not have existed, considering the total lack of coverage it received).

As if all this action were not enough – there’s still the undefeated super mare Zenyatta today at Hollywood Park in the G1 Vanity!  That’s right – the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and widely regarded greatest horse on the planet.  While it’s a bit odd to see such a horse running on a Sunday, I think it goes without saying that we’ll take our Zenyatta races any way we can get them.

Here’s hoping that advertising and marketing execs have been paying attention whenever the spine-tingling Breeders’ Cup commercials featuring Zenyatta’s ’09 Classic victory air – they are precisely what the sport needs!

Now, as ESPNs Jeremy Plonk has rightly pointed out – if only we could get all these horses together in a race (or two) – rather than spread out across the nation in races that tend to cannibalize the importance of each.

While I understand the criticism of the column linked to in the above statement – the one benefit of having so many races for the same division strung out across so many tracks on the same weekend may have been the reappearance of Rachel Alexandra.  That may have been exactly what she needed.

I still don’t think she’s ready to throw down with the likes of a Zenyatta – but it felt darn good to see her pull away in the stretch and “stick her tongue out” at the competition.

Now there’s only one thing left to do – get Zenyatta home on top in the Vanity to run that unbeaten streak to 17 for 17.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Blame, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Saturday Selections – 7/18/09

17 07 2009

Another Saturday is upon us, and you know what that means…time for some weekend warrior picks.  This weekend we’ll weave our way through feature races at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, Belmont Park, Arlington Park, and Hollywood Park.  Then, on Sunday, I’ll be headed out to Delaware Park for a chance to take in the Del Cap live, even if the race is being run sans Rachel.

Delaware Park – Race 7 – The Delaware Oaks (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (3;57 ET)

  • #2 Bon Jovi Girl (3/1)
  • #7 Payton d’Oro (6/1)
  • #3 Livin Lovin (2/1*)

Whoa…we’re half way there.  WHOA whoa, livin’ on a prayer!  (sorry, couldn’t help myself)  :-)

We start things off with the 58th running of the Delaware Oaks.  Everyone loves a good rematch, and for Bon Jovi Girl and Payton d’Oro, this will mark the 3rd consecutive time these fillies have locked horns, with each runner splitting the previous races.  Can anyone say “rubber match?”

Bon Jovi girl has really started to turn things up a notch.  I first noticed this in the post parade of the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico, when I tweeted that she “made quite an impression” in the paddock.  Out on the track she did not disappoint, but was unable to reel in Payton d’Oro.  Note that she was bumped at the start of that race.  She came back to Delaware to crush her rival in the Susan’s Girl, proving for all time that Bon Jovi Girl is a force in stakes races associated with the name “Susan.” She’s got the look of a very tough competitor here, and is the “horse for the course” play with a sensational 4 wins in 6 starts at Delaware (along with a place and a show finish).

Payton d’Oro is a fine filly in her own right, as evidenced by her triumphant march through the maiden, allowance, and stakes levels with 4 consecutive victories.  My guess is that she didn’t like the sloppy track she faced in the Susan’s Girl last out, so with a return to more preferable footing, she ought to be able to improve on that performance. She’s a Medaglia d’Oro filly, so you know you can’t count her out of any fight, and to be honest, 6/1 is not a bad price at all.  She’ll likely be the value play here and at such odds would be well worth a win wager, especially considering Larry Jones is involved.  Is there a better trainer in the nation when it comes to 3-year-old fillies?  Not for my money.

Livin Lovin is the runner to keep an eye on in the paddock.  She’s a Birdstone filly, so we’ll get to see offspring of the two hottest sires this year square off in a relatively evenly matched race.  She was 4th and only two lengths and change behind Gabby’s Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie, two very well regarded fillies who would likely crush this field, in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day.  In other words  it would not be a surprise to see her in the winner’s circle. 

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The Jaipur (G3) – 6 Furlongs – Turf (5:17 ET)

  • #2 True Quality (3/1)
  • #3 Heros Reward (5/2*)
  • #4 Due Date (6/1)

I think it goes without saying that turf sprints are not my strong suit.  With that in mind, I’ve decided that I can’t take the obvious selection and play Heros Reward as my top choice.  It doesn’t mean I won’t have any money on him, as I likely will.  It’s just that my top choices ALWAYS get burned in turf sprints.  It’s like the curse of the Bambino.  The rulers of the heavens must not want me to prevail in contracted grass events.  So what’s a handicapper to do?  Well, when all else fails, look for the speed.

True Quality makes his turf debut in the 26th running of The Jaipur this Saturday.  Usually I’m not one to play first time turfers, and yes, I’ve paid the price at the window on numerous occasions for such hesitancy.  Call me a stubborn old mule, it’s just that I prefer to have some evidence I can bank on in the horse’s previous running lines.  I’m tossing that out the window with True Quality for two primary reasons.  First, the son of Elusive Quality is a proven commodity from a class perspective as evidenced by his Grade 2 victory in the General George Handicap at Laurel Park back in February.  Then, there’s the fact that he appears to be the lone speed of the field, meaning everyone else will have to catch him.

Obviously if someone is going to catch him, the likely candidate is Heros Reward.  The son of Partner’s Hero is the most proven grass commodity in the race and boasts 10 victories over the turf (including a pair of Grade 3 wins).  He’s been knocking heads with some good runners such as Mr. Nightlinger in his previous efforts, and it’s not hard to imagine him turning in a dominating performance on Saturday.  It’s a risky proposition to play against him, and to be honest of the odds stay where they are from the morning line (i.e., only separated by half a point from True Quality), then it won’t make much sense to take a risk in trying to beat him.  The whole key for Heros Reward would appear to be not letting True Quality get too far ahead in the early going.  He’s got to keep it a bit closer than he has in previous races. 

Due Date and Silver Timber both look very usable to me underneath for the exotic wagers.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Virginia Derby (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:59 ET)

  • #9 Battle of Hastings (4/1)
  • #4 Nicanor (7/2)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (8/1)

It’s amazing to me how it’s always the turf races that come up so deep.  In the older male division, we seemingly get some combination of Gio Ponti, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal, not to mention worthy competitors like Better Talk Now, Wesley, and anything the Europeans decide to ship over.  Here we’ve got 10 3-year-old colts in the 12th running of the Virginia Derby, and once again it comes up as the type of race that anyone entered could win.

I settled with Battle of Hastings as top choice for a few reasons.  First, I need to get out of the way that I’m actually a direct descendant of a Norman cavalry commander named “Drago” who fought under William the Conqueror (aka “the Bastard”) at the Battle of Hastings in 1066.  He wound up settling lands in present day Scotland, and I like to think he may have commanded an ancestor of the Wallace clan from Braveheart fame (the Wallace family purportedly being descendants of Norman invaders, according to some sources). Obviously none of that has anything to do with the race at hand, but it’s an angle that is prominent in my mind whenever this guy races, so in the interest of full disclosure, I felt obliged to mention.  As for the horse in question, he strikes me as a very consistent type that you play against at your own peril.

Obviously most of the attention in this race will be focused on Nicanor.  I don’t think I even need to  mention why, but I’ll do so anyways.  He’s the much hyped brother of the beloved Barbaro. While he may have spent his career thus far in Barbaro’s shadow, his last two races have proven he’s something of a talented runner in his own right.  My only fears with him are that he’ll be overbet by virtue of his connections, and he’s been on the lead wiring the field in each of his two wins.  He’ll probably need to show a bit more versatility here, as this field has a good deal of zip signed on.  Everyone will be rooting for him, and if he wins it’ll make for a smashing headline.

Lime Rickey is my longshot play.  Call it a hunch bet, as I know his past performance lines aren’t the most impressive of the field.  It’s just that you’ve got to pay attention to Lemon Drop Kid offspring whenever they are stretching out (in this case to 1 1/4 miles), and you’ve always got to be wary of them suddenly making a fairly large leap forward progression wise as they mature.  Judging from some of his last efforts, he’s been right there.  The morning line of 8/1 is very generous and quite worth a play.

The same can be said for Affirmatif, a horse who has generated a fair amount of buzz in his first 4 races.  Like Lime Rickey, he’s at generous 8/1 odds, not bad for a runner who scored a 100 Beyer figure in his debut race.

 

Arlingont Park – Race 9 – The Arlington Oaks (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (5:03 CT)

  • #1 C S Silk (5/2)
  • #2 Hot Cha Cha (8/5*)
  • #3 Always in My Heart (8/1)

We move to Arlington Park for the 30th running of the Arlington Oaks.  We’re only dealing with a field of 7 runners here, and I thought 4 of them had legitimate shots to wind up in the winner’s circle, including the above mentioned horses and #6 Peach Brew. 

Hot Cha Cha is the top choice, but the odds aren’t very attractive, so I’ll be looking to beat the chalk.  Hot Cha Cha may wind up proving the best, but I didn’t think there was quite enough in the past performances to take such low odds when better value presents itself elsewhere.  Not surprisingly, I wound up on the Medaglia d’Oro runner C S Silk.  C S Silk is rather intriguing as it’s hard to figure out what exactly this horse’s preferred surface is.  I think it’s safe to say it isn’t dirt, so this race over the synthetics could play into her hands.  She’s exiting a last out victory and has fired a bullet drill in the morning of July 9, so I’m going to guess that she’s ready for a prime effort.

Always in My Heart warrants a long look in the post parade as well, as you get the feeling this is a steadily improving daughter of Hennessy.  This will obviously be the toughest field she’s faced, but another move forward is not out of the question.  Likewise, as mentioned before, I think Peach Brew has to be left in the equation.

This may be a small field, but be careful here befor you tee up as this one appears to be more difficult than it may seem on first glance. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 6 - The A Gleam (G2) – 7 Furlongs (3:30 PT)

  • #2 Coco Belle (3/1*)
  • #4 Silver Swallow (6/1)
  • #6 Lady Lumbejack (9/2)

We head out west to Hollywood Park, sadly for what may be one of the final times in the tracks history (apart from a brief 5 week meet later in the year).  The 55th running of the A Gleam denoting a long and storied tradition at Hollywood that in all probability will be run at one of the other California tracks in 2010. 

Coco Belle is the horse to beat here, and will be facing a distance (7 Furlongs) that she is unproven at thus far in her career.  She’ll likely be on the gas early on and will look to wire the field right out of the gate.  The only real threat to her running style should come from the Bob Baffert runner Cry and Catch Me breaking from the 7 hole.  If these two get locked up in a speed duel, it would obviously boost the chances of the off the pace runners. 

If the race does open up, suddenly Silver Swallow and Lady Lumberjack would be prime contenders.  Silver Swallow tends to leave herself a bit more to do in the stretch than Lady Lumberjack does, so take your pick between these runners if you’re trying to beat the lukewarm chalk.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Evita Argentina, who defeated colts in the San Vicente back in February at Santa Anita going 7 furlongs.  Evita is only a 3-year-old, but obviously warrants some consideration as well.  I also wouldn’t count She’s Cheeky out of the mix here, but ultimately had to take a stand against her as you can’t pick every horse in the race. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The Swaps (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

  • #8 Grazen (8/5*)
  • #4 Misremembered (5/1)
  • #7 Quidici Man (20/1)

We finish the day with the feature race from Hollywood, the 36th running of The Swaps.  This race appears to be all about Grazen, the talented 3-year-old son of Benchmark who has posted a pair of triple digit Beyer figures in his last 3 races (along with a respectable 97).  He’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Hollywood and would appear to be the controlling speed of the race on paper.  No doubt he’ll be the key horse of many Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagers on the day.  For me, the important thing here is that he’s still got room for improvement, and has handled in the past the two horses I thought rated the best shots as contenders.

Misremembered faced Grazen last out in the Affirmed Handicap and ran a very game 2nd to Grazen.  Like his rival, there’s also still room for improvement here.  He’ll likely have to hope somebody can wear Grazen down a bit to make him vulnerable in the stretch, but with another move forward anything is possible. 

Quidici Man looks very underrated here to me at 20/1.  I don’t think he’s a serious shot to win this race, but I’d certainly have him covered underneath on the exotics…especially at 20/1.  He’s found a way to hit the board in 9 of 12 lifetime races.  There are obvoiusly several others to consider as well, including Conservative, Advice, and Massone.  In the end though, my hunch was that they’d all be running for place and show.

 

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Nicanor

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

20 06 2009

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature.  This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park.  Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes.  Along those lines,  Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out.  So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!” 

The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card.   That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6.  Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance.  The more the merrier!  Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us. 

Enough about that for now though.  Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
  • #1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
  • #3 Gray Suitor (4/1)

We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes  in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs.  This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds.  Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper.  The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today.  Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level.   Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field.  This one looked pretty obvious to me on top. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 7 -  The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET

1 1/8 Miles

  • #7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
  • #3 All Night Labor (10/1)
  • #8 Skylighter (3/1)

Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here.  She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before.  If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price. 

All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good.  Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races. 

Skylighter is very interesting from the outside.  I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means.  Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount.  You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he? 

 

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET

5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
  • #13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
  • #11 Excessive Heat (15/1)

Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection.  I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events.  That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race.  Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well. 

Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision.  The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl  ($125k)- 4:51 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
  • #5 Cat Moves (8/1)
  • #1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)

Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl.  I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races.  In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.  

Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle.  The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance. 

Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET

1 1/4 Miles - Turf

  • #6 Dynaforce (3/1)
  • #3 Criticism (5/2*)
  • #4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)

We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York.  No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week.  The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?  

First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much.  Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more.  Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year.  She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch. 

Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well.  If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be  potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of  the softer footing underneath her hooves.

Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today.  I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?

 

Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET

1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
  • #7 Indescribable (7/2)
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)

Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the  Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend.  That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie.  This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort.  She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here.  In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price.  As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith. 

Indescribable is another interesting runner here.  Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good.  Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way. 

I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
  • #8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (7/2)

The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners.  Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here.   Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today.  My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April?  My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft?  Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness). 

Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use.  I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names.  Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army.  William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.”  As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance. 

Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  I suspect he’ll run big here as well.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9  – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #2 Grazen (2/1*)
  • #3 Cape Truth (7/2)
  • #1 Misremembered (4/1)

We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16  miles over the main cushion track.  I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3.  The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground.  Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score. 

Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out.  He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill. 

Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert.  This is a small, yet competitive field.

 

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra


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