Derby Trail Heats Up – Premier Pegasus and Uncle Mo Romp

13 03 2011

With less than two months until the 2011 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, the 3-year-old thoroughbred division is starting to take shape as we separate the legitimate contenders from the numerous pretenders.  On Saturday racing fans were treated to solid performances from two serious racehorses, as well as a disappointing performance from a horse thought by many to be among the elite.

Uncle Mo, last seen in November crushing the field of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 4 1/4 lengths, returned to action in what for all intents and purposes amounted to a public workout in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park.  The son of Indian Charlie was making his first start of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher, who opted for the softer 1-turn mile rather than bang heads with stablemate Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Despite being bumped at the start of the race, Uncle Mo wound up winning for fun in 1:36.56, drawing clear by 3 3/4 lengths.  While the champ still clearly has the goods, there may be room for some concern as he’ll have just one additional start (presumably the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 9) before the Derby with which to prepare for the longer distances (and added turn) of the Triple Crown season.

As the evening progressed, another of  Todd Pletcher’s purported contenders, Sam F. Davis winner Brethren, was sent to post assumed to be the class of the field in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  Instead a pair of longshots in Watch Me Go (43/1) and Crimson Knight (86/1) handed the son of Distorted Humor his first lifetime defeat in what has to be considered a disappointing effort.

It wasn’t just that he got beat – he got beat after relatively pedestrian early fractions (:23.73 and :48.20) by horses whose class would not appear to stack up against the heavyweights of the division.  Brethren had soundly defeated Watch Me Go by 5 lengths in the Sam F. Davis stakes on February 12.  Like many, it looks like I may have wasted a spot in my Road to the Roses stable on Brethren.

Brethren - "I Am Disappoint"

As the saying goes, often we find that the best is saved for last – and that was certainly the case this weekend as attention shifted westward to Santa Anita for the Grade 2 San Felipe.  Premier Pegasus, the horse that my good friend Tencent has been heralding as his Derby selection since last Fall, was absolutely brilliant in cruising to a 7 length victory over what appeared on paper to be a very interesting group of horses.  In the process he likely stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of picking up $150k in precious graded stakes earnings.

The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby champion Fusaichi Pegasus also served notice to Uncle Mo and the rest of the Derby contenders that there was a new face in town – and one that would appear to mean serious business.

The victory gives Korean-born trainer Myung Kwon Cho a chance to rise from the ranks of the relatively unknown to celebrity if he can continue to move forward and avoid any setbacks between now and May.  Premier Pegasus may have benefited from a hot pace in the San Felipe (opening splits were :21.75 and :44.58, respectively), but when a horse makes an explosive move like that in the turn and then opens up a veritable can of whoop-ass in the stretch, I think you’d be wise to take notice and give serious respect.

PrePeg, as his fans call him, was 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the late closing Jaycito at the wire, stopping the timer in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe at 1:41.23.   He returned $16.43 for the win, as the betting public let him get away at odds of 7/1 at post time.

The PrePeg/Jaycito Exacta returned $24.30 and if you backed the good looking colt Bench Points on the bottom of the Trifecta you were rewarded with a payout of $201.60.  Pace factor Comma at the Top rounded out a Superfecta that returned $935.10.

Coming up next weekend is the $300k Grade 2 Rebel Derby at Oaklawn Park.  I may not have been posting as frequently this year for numerous reasons, but suffice to say the action this weekend has sparked the fire and I’ve done a bit of housecleaning this weekend as a result – including a new Derby Watch List page with rankings and race replays for the key Kentucky Derby prep races.  I’ve attached a screenshot of my latest rankings below (just click on the table below for an easier to read full sized image).


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Kentucky Derby Trail, Premier Pegasus, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay Downs, Uncle Mo

Florida Derby & Swale Stakes Selections

20 03 2010

As the unstoppable procession towards the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby continues, we find ourselves at an important crossroads with significant Grade 1 earnings on the line in the Florida Derby.

Several horses have used the Florida Derby as an important step along the way to eventual victory on the first Saturday in May, including Big Brown (2008),  Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).  Additionally, the Grade 2 Swale Stakes will also offer an opportunity for horses in need of graded stakes earnings as they attempt to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week.  The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice?  We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes.

Grade 2 Swale Stakes – Gulfstream Park Race 10  (5:45 PM ET)

The Swale Stakes isn’t one of the more glamorous Kentucky Derby prep races, as it is only contested over a distance of 7 furlongs.  Still, nine horses have entered in the $150,000 race, headlined by the Rick Dutrow trained D’funnybone; winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson last out.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Here Ye Hear Ye (15/1)
  • #2 Silver Craft (15/1)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #4 City Trooper (6/1)
  • #5 Fearless Cowboy (10/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)
  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #8 Gary D (12/1)
  • #9 Privilaged (20/1)

D’FUNNYBONE is deserving of the morning line favoritism.  The only time we’ve ever seen this horse turn in a sub-par race was when he was stretched out over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Autumn.  At the 7 furlong distance, the son of D’wildcat (winner of the 2001 Swale Stakes) is absolutely lethal.   His typical race is to sit just off the early speed in around the 3rd position through the opening calls, and then motor out in front as the field turns for home, often pulling away in deep stretch.  This is a classy horse, and one that typically makes a fairly strong post parade impression.

From a pace standpoint, it looks like GARY D could be the horse setting the early fractions. Longshots FEARLESS COWBOY and HEAR YE HEAR YE also have shown a bit of speed in previous races, although more recently they’ve attempted to relax just a bit in the early going.  Regardless of who sets the pace, this race will be all about D’FUNNYBONE.

If you can’t stomach the 6/5 favoritism on D’FUNNYBONE, there are a couple of horses worth considering for the upset here.  Todd Pletcher sends out IBBOYEE following a 3rd place finish to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson that saw him bumped at the start of the race.  IBBOYEE fought back to finish 3rd, only beaten by 2 lengths.  This is a horse who has won 3 stakes races, but had the misfortune of running into today’s rival in the Hutcheson and the highly regarded Medaglia d’Oro colt Laus Deo in the Count Fleet (January 10).  If the son of Medalist can put it all together today, IBBOYEE rates a chance at pulling off the upset.

Another horse that looks somewhat interesting here is DIXIE BAND.  The son of Dixie Union opened his career with 3 consecutive victories, including the Grade 3 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes last September in which he beat a decent horse in Piscitelli.  The down side, of course, is that he’s been on the shelf since an extremely disappointing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) at Keeneland.

Obviously something went wrong that race, and while he’s been training well for this race, I think we all learned last weekend just how rusty a horse can be coming off a 5-month layoff, as we watched in disbelief as the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra didn’t quite seem her usual lethal self in the New Orleans Ladies.  Even so, my suspicion is that this is a classy horse and that he’ll run a decent race today.

As for the rest of the field, I think HEAR YE HEAR YE and SILVER CRAFT are worth considering when filling out your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Either of them could wind up hitting the board at 15/1 and bring some much needed value to your tickets.  I’m also going to add in GARY D to my plays, just in case he does get loose on the lead.

Selections:

  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)


Grade 1 Florida Derby – Gulfstream Park Race 11 (6:20 PM ET)

Eleven horses have entered for the featured prep race of the day, including Todd Pletcher trainee Rule, who currently sits at #5 in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. Due to the entry of “Barbaro’s little brother”, Lentenor, the odds on the tote board might get tilted a bit out of whack for this race, which could make it either more appealing or less appealing from a betting standpoint, depending on which way those winds end up blowing.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #2 Lentenor (6/1)
  • #3 Pulsion (12/1)
  • #4 Pleasant Prince (15/1)
  • #5 Game On Dude (12/1)
  • #6 First Dude (8/1)
  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #8 Ice Box (15/1)
  • #9 Miner’s Reserve (6/1)
  • #10  Best Actor (20/1)
  • #11  Radiohead (3/1)

RULE is the obvious horse to focus on here.  Todd Pletcher’s runaway winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes blew away a seemingly talented horse in Schoolyard Dreams last out while wiring the field going 8.5 furlongs.  Will an extra half furlong today make any difference?  Those looking to defeat the son of Roman Ruler will have to hope so.  What I’m more interested in is seeing whether Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velazquez can get the colt to relax a bit early on?  So far the Kentucky Derby contenders have no shortage of speed and pace-pressing types, so a continued front running style might put him at a disadvantage come the first Saturday in May.

If he does want the lead, RULE might find he has some company today, due primarily to the entry of MINER’S RESERVE.  Technically, RADIOHEAD is another who could be running right out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll try to relax the son of Johannesburg on the stretchout today.

Whichever way he goes, RULE is the obvious horse to beat, although evidently “the Dude abides” if you are going to take a shot and try to beat him.

Seriously, man, what’s with all the Dude named horses in here?  If you’re as big a fan of The Big Lebowski as I am, you might have to take a shot on one of them based on who makes the stronger post parade impression.  Both FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE only recently graduated from the maiden ranks, although GAME ON DUDE does have experience against winners last out at the allowance level.

So what do we make of Barbaro’s brother, LENTENOR?  Barbaro did use the Florida Derby as a stage to announce his Kentucky Derby candidacy, and obviously it would be the feel-good story of the week if LENTENOR were somehow able to pull off the upset.  My sense of things is that the outpouring of affection for anything Barbaro related will cause LENTENOR’s odds to be lower than they should be.  He’s a fine horse, and I think has every right to improve in this race in his first start on dirt.  Still, he might be a horse worth rooting for, while allowing your wallet to go in a different direction.  I give him a shot to the board, personally, but I’ll be mildly (and pleasantly, mind you) surprised if he does something more.

The longshot I’m really focused on is SOARING EMPIRE at 20/1.   First of all, he’s an Empire Maker colt, and those tend to improve with each start and as the distances get longer.  Secondly, this will be the 2nd start in his form cycle since his layoff at the end of 2009.  That’s usually a time when horses can be expected to make significant improvements on the track.  I also like that he comes from off-the-pace, and thus might stand to benefit if something crazy happens at the front of the pack.  He tossed a bullet workout on March 14 in preparation for this race.  Look for a big run today from a horse offering plenty of value on the tote board.

Another off-the-pace type to keep an eye on is ICE BOX.  If you toss that last race where he ran into a monster (Esekendereya) and never really had a chance after blowing the start, this was an improving son of Pulpit for trainer Nick Zito.  As we’ve mentioned before, this Kentucky Derby crop is in need of some closers stepping forward and securing starting spots in an effort to break up the potential speed fest we have approaching.  ICE BOX has also been tossing bullet workouts in the mornings, and will be entering the equally as crucial 3rd start off of his 2009 ending layoff.  I feel this horse is better than most people may think, and he was headed in the right direction prior to the Fountain of Youth.  If he runs back to his prior form, he could be a player in here.

The chances of MINER’s REWARD might depend on what RULE does early on.  If the two engage in a speed battle early on, look for SOARING EMPIRE and ICE BOX (among others) to be the primary beneficiaries.  If, however, one or the other gets loose on the lead, well then I think we all know how dangerous they could be.  This son of Mineshaft appears to be a talented colt, having put up impressive speed figure totals in his maiden breaker last out, but he also finds himself in the disadvantageous 9 hole today, and thus might be forced to push it more than his connections would prefer from early on.

BEST ACTOR is another who put up noteworthy speed figures last out, but note that he ran into a horse in Drosselmeyer in that race who ran rather flat in his next start.  I’m not sure what to make of that performance?  He’s been on the shelf since January, although the workout tab does look enticing since then. My hunch is that he’s a notch below the top horses in here, although I did love his father, Rock Hard Ten, and would love to see him move forward.

Finally we come to RADIOHEAD.  He’s a creep.  He’s a weirdo.  What the hey is he doing here?  He don’t belong here.  Although, he does have a perfect body, and has a perfect soul.  He wants us to notice when he’s not around.  He’s so very special.  I wish I was special.

Yes, the horse with the awesome name from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returns following an impressive allowance level victory last out here at Gulfstream, where he defeated a well thought of colt in Homeboykris.  The question for Radiohead is whether he really is a creep that doesn’t belong here?  In other words, will that “perfect body and perfect soul” allow him to get 9 furlongs on his best stuff?  We’ll have to wait and see.  The post position may not have helped the situation though, so I’m going to consider him a play against for the win honors at odds of 3/1.  If those odds trend upwards, he could be worth considering, as I do think he’s a talented colt that has a shot here – I just don’t think 3/1 matches what I’m willing to accept from a risk/reward standpoint.

Selections:

  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #8 Ice  Box (15/1)

Best of luck to everyone – Up next will be a new edition of our Kentucky Derby rankings following this weekend’s races.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Snowmageddon picks for the Robert B. Lewis and Donn Handicap

5 02 2010

By the time you read this, yours truly will be proverbially buried in what could wind up being between 2 to 3 feet of snow!  Yes, the storm we’ve dubbed “Snowmageddon” is absolutely hammering the mid-atlantic, and living on the Maryland/Pennsylvania line, we seem to be right smack dab in the cross-hairs.   What better to do at a time like this than sit back and fire up the ole betting account and take part in the action at some locations enjoying just a bit more friendly weather?  This Saturday affords us several chances for major stakes action across the country.  We’ll be focusing on the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in this post.

Grade 1 Donn Handicap – Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – 5:31 ET

The 52nd running of the $500k Donn will be contested by 10 horses going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  QUALITY ROAD is the horse everyone will be watching here.  The son of Elusive Quality was a trendy pick for the 2009 Kentucky Derby before being sideline by injury (truth be told, he was my top choice…before that honor went to I Want Revenge…before being forced to switch yet again, ultimately winding up with Friesan Fire.  I think we all know how that ended).  Many will recall his infamous gate antics moments before the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita that caused Zenyatta and others to have to wait what seemed an eternity before he was ultimately scratched.  The colt rebounded from that non-performance by winning the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope here at Gulfstream last out on January 3.  If you’re looking for a big score here, you’ll need to beat him to cash – which may be a tall order.

The interesting thing about this race presents itself when trying to determine who is likely to finish underneath the favorite.  I like the looks of KISS THE KID here quite a bit at 6/1.  I’m usually fond of the Lemon Drops, although it must be noted this one was defeated by DUKE OF MISCHIEF last out by a neck.  PAST THE POINT could also be interesting depending on what happens up front early on.  DELIGHTFUL KISS should be flying late as the field heads for the wire, and I’m expecting him to rally for a share of the money.

Selections:

  • #4 Quality Road (7/5*)
  • #1 Kiss the Kid (6/1)
  • #10 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Dime Superfecta:  4/ 1, 3, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 = ($10.80)

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  - Santa Anita (Race 8 ) – 4:07 PT

The 72nd running of the Robert B. Lewis is being billed as a two horse race between offspring of one of my all-time favorite horses and sires; Tiznow.  AMERICAN LION roars into town as a Kentucky Derby hopeful searching for graded stakes earnings.  He’s got a favorable post position towards the outside in this rather light six horse field.  His maiden victory at Keeneland generated quite a bit of buzz, and hopefully we’ll be able to answer some questions about how serious of a horse he’ll be today stretching out to 8.5 furlongs.TIZ CHROME is the “other Tiznow” in the field that everyone is buzzing about.  Trainer Bob Baffert has seen his colt thrash the 17 horses he’s faced in two lifetime starts, including a blitz of the Stuka (get it?) last out at Hollywood.  The question between these two is obviously who will get the best of the added distance.  Considering each colt has shown they don’t need the lead early on to score, we appear to be setup for a promising stretch duel here.  Whoever gets first jump just might pull away with the race.

Underneath, I thought CARACORTADO looked playable, largely because of his 4 for 4 record (albeit against lesser competition).  I could also make a case for the aptly named DOMONATION for trainer John Sadler with jockey smokin’ Joe Talamo aboard.  Either way, it doesn’t look like this will be a bank breaking race, unless something unexpected materializes.

I’ll keep this one fairly simple.

Selections:

  • #6 American Lion
  • #3 Tiz Chrome
  • #7 Domonation

Dime Superfecta:  6/ 3, 4, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 7/ ALL = $3.60

Of course, there’s one other big event coming up this weekend that we’ll be squeezing in time for in between epic snow shoveling sagas:  The Super Bowl.  I’m taking the Colts over the Saints in a close one.

As for the other news that the horse racing news coming out of Oaklawn Park, I’ll simply say I’m reserving serious thought about the potential of a showdown between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra until something becomes official.  I just don’t have a good feeling it’s going to happen in the Apple Blossom.  We’ll see though – it certainly would be an exciting start to the racing season for 2010.

Best of luck to everyone!



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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita, Zenyatta

Sunshine Millions Quick Picks

29 01 2010

Last weekend we were treated to one of our first real tastes of the 2009 Triple Crown season with the Holy Bull and the Lecomte.  Additionally, my good friend Val from Foolish Pleasure has also shared this video showcasing another Curlin filly by the mare Collect Call (and doesn’t she look awfully familiar?).  Obviously, the year and the deep winter many find themselves in are starting to show their first hints of thawing out on us and warming things up….and it’s about darn time, isn’t it?

This weekend the focus in racing shifts back to runners we may have more familiarity with in the annual Sunshine Millions event held for California and Florida bred horses at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita.  Six races, two tracks, and numerous directions for horseplayers to consider present themselves.  Here’s my quick picks for the races on Saturday, in order of the tentative post times.

The $200k Sunshine Millions Sprint  (GP – R8- 4:33 ET)

We kick things off with the 8th running of the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream Park.  A relatively small field of 7 horses is all there is to choose from.  Personally I think this one comes down to two of them; THIS ONE’S FOR PHIL was one of trainer Rick Dutrow’s speed freaks last spring.  The horse went to the Dave Houghton barn following a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens last June at Belmont.  Houghton got the gelding back on track with a 3 length victory over lesser foes last out at Laurel.  I feel he may be in for a tough match today with the imposing PASHITO THE CHE, a son of Flatter (A.P. Indy) for the Scott Lake barn who has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all with impressive Beyer figures.  Looks pretty simple to me.

Selections:

  • #4 Paschito the Che (8/5*)
  • #6 This Ones for Phil (9/5)
  • #3 Accredit (6/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Distaff (GP – R9 – 5:08 ET)

The second race in the Sunshine Millions is the Distaff, for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  Things seem to get a bit more interesting here with a field of 9 horses, several of which would seem to have chances.  Like the sprint, I have a feeling this one may boil down to a two horse race between SWEET REPENT and JESSICA IS BACK, neither of whom will over a lot of bang for the buck.  If you’re looking for more value, you might want to focus on the chances of EVEN ROAD (20/1) and SCOLARA (12/1), with EVEN ROAD probably having the better shot between the two thanks in part to a solid two-for-three record at the track.  That being said, her past performances suggest she may be a better play underneath in the exotics.  SCOLARA would need some pace help in all likelihood due to her late running style.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to make SWEET REPENT the top choice here, considering how the daughter of Repent handled JESSICA IS BACK at Churchill Downs going a mile and a sixteenth back in November.  I’ll guess that she gets a solid trip here and winds up in the winner’s circle.

Selections:

  • #4 Sweet Repent (2/1)
  • #7 Jessica Is Back (9/5*)
  • #6 Even Road (20/1)

The $200k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint (SA – R6 – 2:36 PT)

We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita for the first time this afternoon for the Filly and Mare Sprint.  This might be one of the more interesting betting races of the entire series, due to the rather large field size (13 horses) and the lack of an obvious standout.  The race within the race that looks most intriguing on paper concerns two of the top contenders; MISS MCCALL and LIBOR LADY.  MISS MCCALL returns to the Santa Anita Pro Ride after a romp over the dirt at Turfway Park last December.   She’s been on the shelf since then, but is lightly raced and obviously has room to continue to improve.  LIBOR LADY picks up the services of Gomez, and you know she’ll be running hard every step of the way.  It’ll be interesting to see if these two bang heads early on for the lead and wind up cooking each other, or if one settles into second.  Especially considering other speed types like HIGH RESOLVE are here.  If they do bang heads, then watch out for DUBAI MAJESTY coming from just off the pace, along with either QUISISANA or perhaps even DOTSY JEAN.  Ultimately, I’m going to take a risk here and go with DUBAI MAJESTY, even though she’s 0 for 2 over the synthetics.  I just have a feeling she could wind up the beneficiary of a great trip behind the speed.  It’s also worth noting that she handled LIBOR LADY, albeit over the turf, last October at Keeneland.  True, she’s a tepid favorite on the morning line at 4/1, but I have a hunch MISS MCCALL will go off as the post time favorite.

Selections:

  • #10 Dubai Majesty(4/1*)
  • #3 Miss McCall (9/2)
  • #7 Libor Lady (6/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Turf (GP – R10 – 5:43 ET)

We head back east for the final leg of the Sunshine Millions from Gulfstream Park in Florida.  JET PROPULSION could be setup perfectly to run away with this one if he can get loose on the lead.  If you’re a speed player, this is probably where you’ll wind up.  The one warning sign to consider though is the 0 for 3 mark over the track – but it’s not like horses don’t take advantage of ideal setups all the time to overcome such concerns, so take that with a grain of salt.  The favorite is SOLDIER’S DANCER, who will be running hard late no matter what happens in front of him.  It’s hard to ignore that 7 for 14 record at the 9 furlong distance as this race is clearly within his reach.  I also thought BAD ACTION, WICKED STYLE, and DUKE OF MISCHIEF were somewhat interesting in here, especially as potential plays underneath in the exotics. Don’t overlook PICKAPOCKET either, as while it would be a surprise to find him in the winner’s circle, he’s run well against SOLDIER’S DANCER in the past.  I’ll be betting that SOLDIER’S DANCER runs down JET PROPULSION at the wire, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if the speed hangs on to beat me or one of these other contenders leaps up and grabs victory from the jaws of defeat (and if you twisted my arm and made me guess who would beat me…I’d say BAD ACTION).  This could be a deceptively tricky race.

Selections:

  • #8 Soldier’s Dancer (8/5*)
  • #11 Jet Propulsion (4/1)
  • #3 Duke of Mischief (8/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf (SA – R7 – 3:07 PT)

I’ll start with a disclaimer here, as while she doesn’t show up in my top picks, I’ll obviously be rooting for my main man Graham Motion and his entry SAUCEY EVENING in the Filly & Mare Turf.  Yes, she’d need her absolute best and then some to likely win, but if there’s one guy in all of racing who deserves to win every race he’s involved in, it’s Motion.  Looking over the rest of the field with my homerism out of the way, I actually like (surprise, surprise) another tepid post time favorite here in TIGHT PRECISION.  I like that she’s won on the grass at Churchill and Gulfstream, which suggests she’s got some versatility, however in all honesty I would feel a lot more comfortable with that selection if there were a race over the Santa Anita grass to evaluate.  Oh well.  To be totally transparent, I actually like both of trainer Thomas Proctor’s entries in here, with the other being CLOSEOUT.  TIGHT PRECISION will obviously be more forwardly placed, with the aptly named CLOSEOUT looking to, well, close things out, I suppose.  Not that I’d call CLOSEOUT a true closer – but she will be coming from further off the pace in all likelihood.  CENTURY PARK would make quite a bit of sense here if she can get out and control the pace, although it would seem BOOTLEG ANNIE will give her a battle up front for that right.  Ultimately, you know where I’m going here – I’m loyal to a fault, which means I’ll be supporting SAUCEY EVENING with my voice and my wallet, even if others make more sense.  Go get ‘em, Saucey!

Selections:

  • #6 Saucey Evening (5/1)
  • #2 Tight Precision (7/2*)
  • #1 Closeout (4/1)

The $500k Sunshine Millions Classic (SA – R8 – 3:38 PT)

We wind things up with the 8th running of the Classic.  Honestly, who doesn’t love a “classic” (even if this one is not a 10 furlong “classic”)?  I’m a little perplexed as to how morning line favoritism of 5/2 could’ve been bestowed upon THE USUAL Q.T. in this race?  Certainly she’s got a chance, but are you really going to take those odds on a horse that is winless over the synthetics?  In her defense, she has placed in each of her 2 starts over the Santa Anita Pro Ride, and we all know Unusual Heat is one of the more prolific synthetic sires out there, but that just seems like a pretty big leap of faith to me (even on what I’ve referred to as the “turf impersonating Pro Ride” in years past).  Especially in the biggest race of the day.  I’m going to lean elsewhere to the improving and lightly raced COMPARI for trainer Martin Jones.  I love what I see in this horse’s running lines.  yes, he likes to be on the lead, but look a the hidden diversification in his efforts:  turf, synthetics, sprinting, routing – he’s done it all in his short career, and hopefully on Saturday he can add a Sunshine Millions Classic victory to those accomplishments.  What’s not to like?  Four straight victories?  Gomez getting the call?  My only concern is that he might be a slightly better turf horse, but that certainly isn’t a reason to expect any regression over the Pro Ride.    Some other horses in here that I find a bit intriguing include JERANIMO and BOLD CHIEFTAIN.  JERANIMO hasn’t really “classed up” the way I’d like to see, having been throttled by the talented M One Rifle last out, but could benefit from the stretch out having sprinted rather exclusively since last Spring.  BOLD CHIEFTAIN is a definite contender in here, and you might want to think about WICKED STYLE as a possible player as well.  Looks like a solid betting race.

Selections:

  • #8 Compari (3/1)
  • #7 The Usual Q. T. (5/2*)
  • #9 Bold Chieftain (6/1)

Best of luck to all!  And of course, as always, let me know who your picks are.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

Winslow Homer outruns Jackson Bend to win the Holy Bull

24 01 2010

The Kentucky Derby prep season got underway with a bang on Saturday as Fox Hill Farms’ 3-year-old Winslow Homer staged a mild upset in the $150,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Bet down from his morning line odds of 6/1, the son of Unbridled’s Song split horses in the stretch to power his way home in front of the favorite, Jackson Bend, who was coming off a 5 race winning streak.

Right out of the gate, several horses shot to the front to challenge the early goings, including Piscitelli (who had shown this style last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile), Litigation Risk, and Homeboykris.

It was Homeboykris who ultimately had the lead at the opening quarter mark in :23.86, with Thank You Philippe having motored on up to a close 2nd from his position along the rail.

At this point, both Jackson Bend and Winslow Homer were in stalking position, with Winslow Homer getting a slightly easier ride just off the pace pressers.

As the field turned for home, Ramon Dominguez finally asked Winslow Homer for his run, and the colt responded by splitting Homeboykris and Thank You Philippe , emerging from the pack ahead of Jackson Bend.  By the sixteenth poll it was a two-horse race, but Winslow Homer would not be denied, hitting the wire 3/4 of a length in front of Jackson Bend.

The final time for the Holy Bull was 1:35.97 for the one-turn mile.  Winslow Homer returned $9.60 for the victory with Jackson Bend completing the Exacta and paying $3.40 for place.  William’s Kitten was moving well late, finishing 3rd and returning $4.40 for show.

Following the race, trainer Anthony Dutrow indicated that the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) on February 20th at Gulfstream Park would likely be Winslow Homer’s next race.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Holy Bull and Lecomte a remedy for early Derby Fever

22 01 2010

Horse and Plowman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer

While it’s true that the official Kentucky Derby prep season begins well before this weekend, the racing action on Saturday at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park promises to treat viewers suffering with post Eclipse Awards “Derby Fever” with perhaps their first true glimpse of what the future holds.

Grade 3 Holy Bull

The 21st running of the Holy Bull (G3) in Saturday’s 9th race at Gulfstream Park (5:08 ET) will be contested by nine 3-year-old colts going 1 mile over the main track. In 2006, the legendary Barbaro used the Holy Bull as a spring board to his eventual triumph in the Kentucky Derby.  The field for this year’s Holy Bull sets up like this:

  1. Thank U Philippe (E. Castro/M. Wolfson) 8/1
  2. Homeboykris (E. Prado/R. Dutrow Jr.) 5/1
  3. Litigation Risk (A. Garcia/R. Violette) 12/1
  4. Piscitelli (K. Desormeaux/R. Sacco) 6/1
  5. William’s Kitten (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
  6. Winslow Homer (R. Dominguez/A. Dutrow) 6/1)
  7. Wild Lime (J. Lezcano/M. Trombetta) 20/1
  8. Aikenite (J. Velazquez/T. Pletcher) 4/1
  9. Jackson Bend (J. Rose/N. Zito) 5/2*

The field is headlined by Nick Zito’s star trainee, JACKSON BEND, who has won 5 consecutive races including 4 consecutive stakes.  If he can stalk and pounce from his outside post position and get a decent trip, he makes for a dangerous chalk to play against.

It’s early in the year though.  Who comes here to play chalk in the first big race of the year?  Several other horses in this race look very playable if their morning line odds hold.

I’ll start with WILLIAM’S KITTEN, a son of Kitten’s Joy that my good friend Tencentcielo was eager to see on Breeders’ Cup weekend.  We raced to the paddock for the Juvenile to get a glimpse of him prior to the race.  Sent off at stratospheric odds, he both made a stronger visual impression in the paddock and ran a better race than his running line suggests.  I think this guy’s a player in here, although I think his better days are further down the road.

HOMEBOYKRIS is an interesting Maryland Bred for infamous trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.  He looked like a legitimate Derby contender in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont late last fall, but then pressed the pace and gave way stretching out to 9 furlongs in the Remsen (G2) in November.  The cut back to 1 mile and the bullet workouts in December and January suggest he’s ready to move forward.

Ultimately, I’m going to think a bit outside the box for my first prep play of the year.  I like the looks of WINSLOW HOMER quite a bit in this spot.  He’s only raced 3 times, but if not for a neck defeat in his début, the son of Unbridled’s Song would be a perfect 3 for 3.  He’s still got room for improvement and ran big off a  2 month layoff back in November at Philly Park.  Ramon Dominguez has to be excited to get another shot aboard this guy.  If the odds of 6/1 hold, I think he makes a lot of sense.

Oh yeah, about that random painting at the top of this post – that’s “”Horse and Ploughman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer.  Seemed fitting, given this selection. :)

Selections for the G3 Holy Bull:

  • #6 Winslow Homer (6/1)
  • #9 Jackson Bend (5/2*)
  • #2 Homeboykris (5/1)

I’d add Aikenite and William’s Kitten into the exotic plays, and you may want to take a look at the Moss family entry, Piscitelli as well.

Dime Superfecta: 6/2,5,8,9/2,4,5,8,9/ALL = $9.60

Grade 3 Lecomte

The 66th running of the Lecomte in Saturday’s 10th race at Fair Grounds (4:43 CT) features 11 3-year-olds in a two-turn event covering 1 mile & 40 yards over the main track.  The most notable Lecomte winner of recent history was eventual runner up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Hard Spun.  Ironically, Friesan Fire, winner of last year’s Lecomte, is racing in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

The field for the 2010 LecComte sets up as follows:

  1. Maximus Ruler (F. Torres/H. Clark) 4/1
  2. Turf Melody (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 7/2
  3. Worldly (R. Albarado/P. McGee) 5/1
  4. Depaul (S. Sellers/S. Asmussen) 20/1
  5. Citrus Kid (M. Mena/J. Terranova) 8/1
  6. Callide Valley (C. Lanerie/E. Kenneally) 10/1
  7. B’wanagoldmine (E. Martin Jr./D. Pish) 15/1
  8. Letsgetitonmon (S. Bridgmohan/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  9. Coll Bullet (B. Hernandez Jr./S. Margolis) 5/1
  10. Rock Hard (H. Theriot/B. Barnett) 30/1
  11. Ron the Greek (J. Graham/T. Amoss) 8/1

MAXIMUS RULER is the horse that I think will ultimately go off as the post time favorite in this one, and for good reason.  While the son of Roman Ruler has never been two turns before, he is accomplished at the one mile distance last out racing close to the pace.  He’ll likely need to be involved early on breaking from the rail, but would seem to have the tools to turn in a solid performance if he can settle down in 2nd or 3rd.  I think he’s the obvious choice, even if I suspect he’ll be bet down a bit.

TURF MELODY heads out for my main man Graham Motion.  The son of Maria’s Mon has pulled off back-to-back victories at the mile distance in his last two starts – a sign that bodes very well for his chances here.  The only thing that worries me slightly is that Valdivia must get used to him right away. Russel and Rose certainly have this guy figured out, so hopefully Jose Jr. can be a quick study.  This runner has a nice old-school foundation laid in his running lines.  Graham just might have him ready to move forward here in start #1 for 2010.

WORLDLY is an interesting runner in this field, having been defeated by Stay Put last out in the same track/distance conditions.  The son of A.P. Indy would seem to need an improved performance to find the winner’s circle today, but it’s certainly not out of the question as there does seem to be some talent under the hood.

I’d look for CITRUS KID a little later in the year as the Lemon Drops can take a little while to get rolling, although this one did win back to back starts at Delaware Park last fall.  The water is a bit deeper here today, so he’d need his best stuff.  I’m going to consider him more of an underneath play in the exotics.

COOL BULLET is a horse stretching out for the first time who should be a factor in the pace scenario.  DEPAUL and CITRUS KID could challenge for the lead early on, which could open things up for the off-the-pace types coming in from behind.

Lastly, RON THE GREEK looks a little interesting from the outside post.  The son of Full Mandate started off his career with back to back victories before being defeated by TURF MELODY last out.  He’s another that warrants strong consideration for an underneath spot on the exotic plays.

Selections for the G3 Lecomte:

  • #1 Maximus Ruler (4/1)
  • #2 Turf Melody (7/2*)
  • #3 Worldly (5/1)

I’ll give CITRUS KID, COOL BULLET, and RON THE GREEK strong consideration for the bottom positions of my Superfecta play.  CALLIDE VALLEY is a horse I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a player as well.  I don’t want to totally sleep on the Asmussen runners DEPAUL and LETSGETITONMON or B’WANAGOLDMINE, but you know the drill; can’t chose ‘em all.

Dime Superfecta:  1/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,9,11/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 =$11.20

So that’s where I stand headed into the first big weekend of the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep season.  I’m all in on WINSLOW HOMER and MAXIMUS RULER.  My only question for all of you is “who you got?”


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News

Derby time, Florida style

26 03 2009

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
  2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
  3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
  4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
  5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
  6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
  7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
  8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

 

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

 

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
  • $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)

 


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Categories : Dunkirk, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road

Nicanor can run!

7 03 2009

 

Nicanor, the widely cherished full brother to the legendary Barbaro, returned to racing on Saturday in a $40,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park,  turning in a much improved performance.   Sent off at odds of 8/1, he finished a game second to  3/5  favorite Custom for Carlos and returned $6.00 for place and $4.40 for show.

Trained by Michael Matz, the 3-year-old son of Dynaformer drew national attention from horse racing fans due to his kinship with Barbaro.  However, all the well wishing in the world from a hopeful and adoring public seemed for naught when he encountered trouble at several different moments during his debut on January 31st.  Sent off as the second choice that day, he faded badly to tenth, beaten by 25 lengths.

The world waited with baited breath to see what would transpire in his second effort, and you know what folks?  Give this horse a little time and he might be a pretty good one himself.  Ultimately he was passed by Custom for Carlos, a daunting favorite who had outrun Nicanor by 46 Beyer points in his debut.  Nicanor made him earn it today, and for a moment even appeared to be fighting back in the stretch.   That’s an encouraging sign from a Dynaformer colt.  You want them to be fighters in the stretch. 

He appears capable of  breaking  his maiden in his next effort, provided he receives some smart placement and little bit of racing luck.  We’ll see from there if he’s able to progress through the conditional allowance levels.  Dreams of stakes races may be far off in the future at this point in time, but if all goes well this colt should develop  and continue to move forward. 

There was an ever-so-slight indication that light had turned on for Nicanor by virtue of his March 3rd workout going 4 furlongs in 48 and change.  The drill was significantly faster than his last posted efforts at the distance.  He cut back in distance today from 1 mile to 7 furlongs, and judging from his candor in the stretch I’d say this guy would appreciate the extra furlong again if his connections can find the right race.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Nicanor

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