The Pamplemousse and Quality Road get the job done.

1 03 2009

Track announcer Trevor Denman’s call was spot on as The Pamplemousse prepared to cross the finish line in Saturday’s running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita Park;

“…they would need to sprout wings to catch him…”

 

Indeed. The impressive son of Kafwain with the funny name (pronounced “pample-moose” in case, like me, your first inclination was to make it more of a “pimple mouse” enunciation) has now pulled off 3 straight victories in a row, with each one being an improvement on the last.   Julio Canani’s grapefruit has only one test left to pass out west on the road to the Kentucky Derby when he faces off against Pioneer of the Nile and (perhaps) Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Derby in April. 

The Pamplemousse is a horse that has become quite popular with fans following the action out in California.  Visually, he’s an impressive colt that looks big and well put together to me.  If you haven’t had a chance to get up close and personal with him, you’re in luck; Mary Forney has been documenting him in the morning workouts and getting some always entertaining Julio Canani camera time and it’s all available on youtube.

 

Take the Points proved something to me by running fairly well for 2nd in the Sham.  Prior to the race I had mentioned that I’m not fond of horses shipping from east to west (especially not on such short notice), but he showed up and ran extremely well.  This might be a horse to keep an eye on as well.  Not many have the versatility to run big on both dirt and synthetics. I think this guy has a future in front of him.  Colonel John’s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff got up for third.

The challenge The Pamplemousse will likely have to overcome one of these days is to his front running, gate to wire style.  The only thing we need to see from this colt is that he can relax.  However, isn’t it somewhat more impressive that he’s doing this over the Santa Anita Pro Ride?  It’s not the most speed favoring track in recent memory and tends to play more like a turf course.   Plus, all he does is run the competition out of their shoes.  You’ve got to love that, but I’m still a bit cautious about his chances come the First Saturday in May. 

 

 

In the other major action of the day, Quality Road turned in a bit of a shocker in the Fountain of Youth.  Several of you had mentioned this horse as a runner you expected big things from, so I’m hoping there were a few cashed tickets out there amongst the faithful.  Me, I got burned by him as I expected him to be part of a hot pace.  That didn’t really develop right away, and by the time it did Quality Road was actually in good position to benefit from it stalking just behind This One’s for Phil.

My choice, Beethoven, ran on for third, but never really threatened.  Quality Road won in impressive fashion, absolutely blowing away This One’s for Phil in the stretch.  The win is the third quality performance that the aptly named Quality Road has turned out thus far in his career, and it looks like the son of Elusive Quality should be able to get some extra distance if trainer James Jerkens decides to point him towards either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial in early April.

I also thought Theregoesjojo was running very well late and it will be interesting to see where trainer Ken McPeek points this guy next.   For now though, Quality Road definitely looks like a colt to keep an eye on in the coming months.  Obviously the Pamplemousse was already on most everyone’s radar, but it’s always nice to welcome a relatively new colt to the discussion, so come on down Quality Road and pull up a chair. 

Next weekend should bring even more intrigue as we get to see Haynesfield, Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  Things are starting to get interesting, that’s for sure.  If you’re curious about my top 10 Derby contenders at the moment, I’d rank ‘em like this:

  1. Old Fashioned
  2. Dunkirk
  3. Pioneer of the Nile
  4. Friesan Fire
  5. The Pamplemousse
  6. Patena (must live up to the hype to prove this position though)
  7. Quality Road (rocketing up my list)
  8. Haynesfield (will get toughest test yet in the Gotham, but has earned this ranking thus far)
  9. Imperial Council (is he the real deal?)
  10. Stardom Bound (get the feeling she’ll head to the Oaks instead of the Derby)

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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita, The Pamplemousse

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Dunkirk and Imperial Council generating some buzz

22 02 2009

It’s nothing new, really.  Whereas in days of yore the only way a colt surged forward along the road to the Kentucky Derby was with a solid foundation as a 2 year-old and a campaign of steady, distance increasing races as an early 3-year-old, the trend lately has been for instant sensations.  We saw this last year with Big Brown (although technically he had raced as a 2-year-old, albeit briefly), and we saw this 2 years-ago with Curlin.  Could it be happening once again? 

Two colts have garnered a great deal of attention since winning impressively at the Allowance level in the last few weeks as they attempt to earn there way into the starting field of the 2009 Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May.  Dunkirk and Imperial Council have made many take notice and now have folks questioning whether they will be able to shake up the prep fields they are pointed towards.

Both horses (Dunkirk and Imperial Council) have martial sounding names, which is an added bonus for a military history buff like me.  As Dunkirk was historically the savior of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in the dark days of early World War 2, might Dunkirk the colt be the savior of perennial Triple Crown hopeful Todd Pletcher?   Typically Pletcher has any number of runners pointing for the roses, but this year his stable didn’t seem to have as many legit contenders.  Then, out of seemingly nowhere, WHAM – here’s Dunkirk.  I’m reminded of the film “A Bridge Too Far” where Michael Caine’s character (in charge of the British armored XXX Corps) discusses the positives of arriving just in time, like the cavalry showing up in the nick of time, rather than earlier than expected.  “On Shed-dule” is how he puts it.  Yes indeed – it would appear Dunkirk hath arrived “on shed-dule” for Todd Pletcher.

Dunkirk throttles the field in his Allowance victory at Gulfstream Park 2/19/09.

Dunkirk’s allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on 2/19 added yet another grey colt to the equation for the Kentucky Derby.   The $3.7 million purchase has a solid pedigree being sired by Unbridled’s Song and out of the  Kentucky Oaks winning mare Secret Status.   He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and was piloted by Garrett Gomez during his allowance romp.  It remains to be seen if Gomez will retain the mount next out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/28/09, or if jockey Edgar Prado will take the mount.  Prado happened to be on a rival horse for trainer Rick Dutrow during Dunkirk’s recent victory. 

Looking at the run, I thought it was visually impressive.  He takes some time to get going, but once he does he puts away the competition with the class expected of a horse who will be a Grade 1 contender.  The knock on him will be that he is lightly raced (I’ll always think of Curlin when I hear that), and that he lacks the “foundation”  that racing as a 2-year-old has seemingly provided in the past.  If you ask me though, the times are clearly changing.  If he shows up and pulls a Big Brown in the Florida Derby, this will be your Derby horse.  If he doesn’t, well than it’s back to the drawing board.  Just to keep things honest though, it’s wise to remember that the field in his allowance victory was questionable (I’m honestly not familiar with any of them at this point in time), and the final time of 1:50.15, while good, could be improved upon.  Of course, if you’ve only got 2 races under your belt, the sky’s the limit, right?   The best thing I like about this guy?  He’s not a front runner, and he seems likely to be able to relax until the real running begins. 

Imperial Council wins Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/09

The other colt that is generating a healthy dose of buzz is Imperial Council.  The lightly raced Empire Maker colt (huge hat tip to Mike from Horse Racing Free Picks who is by far the biggest fan of Empire Maker offspring I know…so much so that whenever I think of them I instantly connect them with him) turned in a whopper as well last week when he blazed through allowance competition at Gulfstream.  He’s now pointing to the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/7/09 where he’ll face off against Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and possibly Danger to Society.  Trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted in bloodhorse as wanting to move the colt north so that he can continue to stretch him out distance wise, as opposed to facing off in the condensed 1-mile distance of Fountain of Youth. 

My gut tells me that while sending him up to New York is definitely the right thing to do to determine if he’s a legitimate Derby contender, I have a feeling the major NY preps are going to be a lot more wide open this year than they have in recent memory.  In addition to the horses mentioned above, we’ll also get I Want Revenge moving from synthetics to dirt (every handicappers least favorite angle to consider) as he ships east for the Gotham.  Personally, I’m thinking Mr. Fantasy has a good a shot as any to come out of the Gotham on top, but we’ll see how this plays out.  If Imperial Council continues to progress, which he should, and manages to take the Gotham, he’d be a very intriguing contender for the run for the roses on the first Saturday in May.

One thing is certain, it’s way too soon to have any finalized opinions yet.  Hold onto your horses folks, it looks like we’ve got a wild ride to the Derby.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Saturday offerings

24 01 2009

So I need to start out here by saying that circumstance has got the better of me.  Despite my best intentions, several nights in a row without as much as a wink of sleep have left me in the following situation;  It’s Saturday morning (roughly 10:30 AM EST as I begin writing this), and I’ve seriously not slept in days.  The end result being that my DRF containing the Sunshine Millions races remains unopened.  My plans for the weekend seemingly foiled. 

What to do?  That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it (in this case a “sunshine million” dollar question)?   Well, it’s not like I’m at a loss for loosely related and largely disjointed horse racing thoughts floating around in my head.   What follows is the exhausted ramblings of your’s truly in an attempt to get some sort of posting up for the weekend that connects my main stream of thought (the “road to the roses”) and the big action of the day in the Sunshine Millions.

We’ll start with the Sunshine Millions.

For me , the story of the day and the play of the day is going to be Finallymadeit in the Classic.  In case you missed this guy’s story, it’s an inspirational tale that literrally left my jaw dropped to the floor when I first heard it earlier this week (big hat tip to Ron Correll at  Tracksideview).  So here he is in the Classic, a Grade 3 winner breaking from the rail and likely the controlling speed of the race.   He’s faced a lot of the main rivals today, including probable favorite Delightful Kiss, and while he faded badly against that one last out in the Hal’s Hope, that was after extremely quick fractions (note the 2nd call being :46.4).   He should be able to relax and set a more comfortable pace today.   Who knows?  Can he take them all the way?  I think he can, and while I’m also quite fond of Macho Again  and uneasy about downgrading Delightful Kiss at all due to post position (cough, Big Brown’s Florida Derby, cough), I think I"m going to make him my play of the day.  It’s just too good a story not to jump on the bandwagon for and hope for the best.   I know, not a very scientific handicapping approach, but perhaps my lack of sleep is making me feel more mystical and otherworldly at the moment (either that or I picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue).   :)

Looking over the rest of the races, I know Riffkind wanted to see my thoughts on Georgie Boy, and as she is one of my favorite reade’s here, I’d feel it was a total dereliction of duty on my part if left her disappointed.   Another of my favorite readers, Sally C, has already pointed out that the rains have fallen in CA, which definitely has an impact on the surface.  We’ve seen all kinds of wild results so far at Santa Anita this meet, so I’m more than a little disturbed that I keep coming up rather predictable with respect to my handicapping of the Sprint.  My top two choices are In Summation and Georgie Boy, although I prefer In Summation by an extremely slight margin. 

There are a couple of x-factor horses in the Sprint that are worth checking out come post parade time.  For instance, which version of Devoted Magic shows up today?  Sure we could say that 105 Beyer was a fluke, but this is a Jerry Hollendorfer runner and everything he touches seemingly turns to gold.   It’s also hard to knock Yesbyjimminy.  He’s coming off 6 consecutive victories, although they were all on dirt  and he’s drawn the extreme outside.   He’s obviously n ot one of my top selections, but don’t let a 6 time consecutive winner go off at too long odds.  Certainly there’s a point where he’s got value, right?  And what of Sok Sok and Big Bad Leryobrown?   ‘Leroy gets the "coolest name of the field" vote every time he goes to post (much like Steppenwolfer in my opinion), but he hasn’t won since October.  Sok Sok looks very dangerous here.  In fact, if I had to pick a longshot thief here, that’s my guy.  

So where does that leave me?  Well, I guess it means that I think about 6 horses could win this thing.  Obviously being a Grade 1 winner makes Georgie Boy an attractive selection, plus he should get a nice stalking trip.  I think it comes down to he and In Summation in the stretch in a battle of who-wants-it-more?   I’ll guess that Sok Sok is also making a bid to do battle down the stretch.  Take your pick from these 3.

Now onto the Derby trail:

Not much has changed in my rankings.  Square Eddie I’ve donwgraded  a bit as I need to see more.   Much like last year I’m at a loss as to where to correctly rank the west coasters, and until I see someone really blow me away, I’m going to keep Vineyard Haven at the top of the list.

  1. Vineyard Haven  (still think he would beat ‘em all if the Derby were this weekend)
  2. Old Fashioned (hard not to be impressed with this guy’s efforts.  He’s probably a smarter Derby contender than Vineyard Haven overall since he will be training in the U.S. while V.H. is in Dubai)
  3. Pioneer of the Nile (while the last field he beat may have been a little weak, the horse has been working sensationally and looks like the real deal to me)
  4. Friesan Fire (I’m back and forth with this guy.  One day I really like him, the next I’m not so sure. For now I think he’s a got a real chance, although everything is subject to change)
  5. Breakwater Edison (I’m jumping on his bandwagon despite not having really had a chance to watch him.  We’ll find out more about this guy soon enough)
  6. The Pamplemousse (It’s tough to figoure out where to rank  him.  He’d be higher if the Derby were in Santa Anita)
  7. Square Eddie ( I still like him, and he probably needed that last race, but he needs to show me both better speed figures and good dirt form before I can safely move him up the list at this point).
  8. Beethoven (From here on out the rankings are pretty even.  Ultimately I’m a bit higher on this guy since I cashed  on him last out.  That tends to impart positive associations/memories).
  9. Notonthesamepage (may not have the distance to be a real Derby contender, but did flash a 115 Beyer last out)
  10. Stardom Bound (love this filly, although I don’t think she’ll be pointed to the Derby)

Others I’m watching:  Haynesfield, Chocolate Candy, Big Drama, Midshipman, Munnings, Quality Road, Obligingly, Nicanor, Charitable Man, Flat Out, Free Country, Indygo Mountain, Cribnote, Giant Oak, Danger to Society, Hello Broadway, and Well Positioned.

Best of luck to you all and hope you have a great weekend.  I appreciate all of the support and encouragement as I continue my quest to enter the Guinness Book of World Records as the most sleep deprived father in the world.  :)


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Saturday Selections

9 01 2009

Nothing stops the procession of progress around here at The Aspiring Horseplayer, not even the arrival of a new son.  That’s right, in case you somehow missed it, my second little guy was born last Saturday at the hospital in Gettysburg.  He’s got good turf pedigree and should round out into one of the better juveniles in a couple of years.  Actually, I’m hoping he’s not affiliated with anything “juvenile” as that conjures up images of detention centers and correctional facilities.  Let’s hope that’s a path this boy can avoid.

Beyond that excitement, there’s obviously NFL playoff fever in the air.  I’ll just come right out and say that on Divisional Weekend I like the Panthers, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers.  Now that football is out of the way, let’s dive into our sport of choice; thoroughbred horse racing, and see if we can’t pick some winners for the Lecomte, the San Pasqual, and a very interesting Allowance race at Gulfstream Park featuring two of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the land.

The Grade 3 Lecomte – Fair Grounds (Race 9) – 1 Mile (Dirt)

  • #1 Friesan FIre (5/1)
  • #2 Au Moon (8/1)
  • #3 Citizen (20/1)
  • #4 Patena (4/1)
  • #5 Big Push (8/1)
  • #6 Dynamic Force (10/1)
  • #7 Professor Z (6/1)
  • #8 Uno Mass (5/1)
  • #9 Indygo Mountain (3/1*)

Looking over the field of the Lecomte, we’ve got some speed signed on here with Patena breaking from the 4 hole, Big Push from post 5, and the Steve Asmussen runner Professor Z from post 7.  That should set things up nicely for one of the stalkers, namely either Indygo Mountain or Uno Mass.

Of those two, I prefer the other Asmussen entry, Uno Mass, by the slimmest of margins.  The son of Macho Uno has not only borken his maiden, but also defeated the next level allowance foes, something that Indygo Mountain has not achieved yet.  All things considered I think these two colts are very close in terms of talent, so it all comes down to whether or not you like 3/1 on the extreme outside, or 5/1 just to his inside.  I’ll probably play the odds here. 

There are a couple of others in here to keep your eye on if shooting for the $.10 superfecta (fast becoming one of my favorite bets in the game; to the point that I’m almost disgusted when it’s not offered on a betting program…every race should have a $.10 super!!!).  Au Moon won for fun last out against Special Weight competition and could be any kind of horse.  He accomplished that from the 10 hole last out and should appreciate being moved inside today.  Friesan Fire is also very intriguing with that combination of jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones (not to mention the horse, who appears to be in sharp form). 

I’ll play Uno Mass on top with Indygo Mountain (note: I keep wanting to type “hello, my name is Indygo Mountain, you killed my father, prepare to die!!!” whenever I write his name), Professor Z, and Friesan Fire in place.  I’ll add in Au Moon and Patena for show, and finally I’ll add Big Push for 4th:

8/1,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,5,7,9 = $4.80

 

Gulfstream Park  Alw 42000N$Y (7 Furlongs – Dirt)

  • #1 Summerton (12/1)
  • #2 Belo Sorte (20/1)
  • #3 Two Brash (12/1)
  • #4 Quality Road (5/2*)
  • #5 Obligingly (3/1)
  • #6 Theregoesjojo (6/1)
  • #7 B B’s Song (20/1)
  • #8 Meshuga (30/1)
  • #9 Monk’s Creek (8/1)
  • #10 Tar Beach (12/1)
  • #11 Awesome Rythm (12/1)
  • #12 Jet Set Vinny (8/1)

This very well could be the race of the day.  By far it’s the race I’m most excited about as Saturday draws near.  Two of the most highly touted 3-year-olds in the land, Quality Road and Obligingly, will knock heads in this deceptively strong conditional allowance race and we may get our first look at who is a Derby contender and who is a pretender when all is said and done.  Both colts have surpassed the 100 Beyer figure threshold as 2-year-olds.  Quality Road is the one thought to have the brighter future, but today may be Obligingly’s day to shine.

Quality Road posted a 101 figure breaking from the 10 hole in his debut at Aqueduct last November.  Since then he’s been throwing bullets at Palm Meadows and would appear to be primed and loaded for trainer James Jerkens.  Obligingly is an Officer colt that jumped from a 49 Beyer in his debut to an impressive 100 at Churchill in an 11 length win on December 7. 

Take your pick from these two, but I can’t see anyone else beating them.  I’ll probably play odds again here, if I even play (the $.10 Superfecta is calling me to).  This is one of those races I just want to see both colts come back well from after moving forward in the afternoon.  Hopefully we get that.  All things being equal, at the tricky 7 furlong distance, I’ll take Obligingly.  It won’t bother me at all if Quality Road is as good as advertised and he beats me.  We’ll keep the play cheap.

5/4,9,12/1,4,9,12/1,3,4,9,11,12 = $3.60

 

The Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap – Santa Anita (Race 8) – 1 1/16 Miles (Pro Ride)

  • #1 Mostacolli Mort
  • #2 Marchfield
  • #3 Informed
  • #4 Cowboy Cal
  • #5 Noble Court
  • #6 Past the Point
  • #7 Well Armed
  • #8 Magnum
  • #9 Blue Exit
  • #10 Ball Four
  • #11 Racketeer
  • #12 Slew’s Tizzy

We end up the day in the feature at Santa Anita, the 72nd running of the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap.   Hopefully any of you playing the Santa Anita card are still alive in the enormous Pick 6 carryover pool available on Saturday.  I don’t quite have the cash flow to take an honest stab into that at the moment.  The carryover itself illustrates one small problem for handicappers; when to have the courage to stand on favorites.  They haven’t been winning as often as usual as the Pro Ride has adapted to it’s first full winter of use. 

Still, I think it’s going to take a top notch effort from someone to take down the favorite, Well Armed, here.   We’ve seen Well Armed bang heads with Curlin and Go Between in the past.  To me he’s clearly the best horse on paper once you draw a line through the effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (aka “Synthetic Mile”).

That being said, there are some attractive options if you feel like taking a stab.  For starters, one of my favorite horses to play in such angles is Cowboy Cal.  Some of you may remember I picked him in the Hollywood Derby and he finished less than a length behind Court Vision (I still feel like he could’ve won that one).  I really like his recent form, and if he were to put it all together today, he’d certainly have a chance. 

Another to keep an eye on is the often disrespected Past the Point.  I say “often disrespected” because he isn’t known for being a “winner” and was at one point, along with the late Wanderin Boy, one of the horses those who were not fans of Curlin would use to point out the weakness of races like the Woodward.  What Past the Point has shown me since then is that he isn’t a fluke.  He belongs in this kind of race.  I’m not sure he can ever beat the likes of Well Armed, but he can certainly hit the board consistently.  I’d expect him to give a pretty good account of himself when all is said an done.

Another horse to consider here is Slew’s Tizzy breaking from the extreme outside.  For those that don’t know, I have a confirmed fetish for playing the offspring of Tiznow.  It’s just something I’ve noticed over the years.  They do pretty well for me when I play them, and when I don’t play them (cough, Da’ Tara, cough), they absolutely burn me alive.  He’s another that if you draw a line through is effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend makes a lot of sense here, although that outside post could be an issue.  At least, if nothing else, it should assure a clean break.

I’ll play the chalk on top, with Past the  Point, Cowboy Cal, and Slew’s Tizzy in place.  I’ll add in Ball Four for show, and then toss in Mostacolli Mort and the other Tiznow colt (Informed) and Noble Court for the bottom of the superfecta:

7/4,6,12/4,6,10,12/1,3,4,5,6,10,12 = $4.50

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes/scratches – not to mention weather this time of year.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Big Brown looks for real

29 03 2008

Big Brown crushes the field in the G1 Florida Derby on 3/29/08

Rick Dutrow looks like he’s got a potential Derby winner on his hands with 3 year old phenom Big Brown. On Saturday at Gulfstream Park the 3 year-old son of Boundary destroyed a seemingly stacked field of contenders in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, blazing through opening fractions of  :22.76 and :45.83 to ultimately win by 5 lengths in 1:48.16, just .37 seconds off the track record.

Heading into the Floriday Derby, I had decided that the outside post position was too much for Big Brown to accept him as the 5/2 favorite.  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  The race wasn’t even close.  He absolutely annihilated the competition and won so impressively that I think you now have to think of him as a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd.

I’m not going to give too much away for my updated Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings coming out tomorrow night, but suffice to say that Big Brown will be rocketing up horseplayers charts all over the country.  The win in the $1 million Florida Derby assures that the colt will be headed to Louisville for the Derby as one of the top betting choices.  Big Brown now improves to 3 for 3 lifetime after having well documented hoof problems earlier in his career.  

big-brown.jpg

Smooth Air was chasing gamely for 2nd, and Tomcito did run well enough to get up for show as I suspected he might.  Elysium Fields was a horrifically disappointing next to last in the 12 horse field.   Big Brown returned $5.oo to win and anchored a $68.80 exacta with Smooth Air underneath.  Adding Tomcito for show awarded bettors a $702.80 trifecta.

I’ll just come right out and say it.  That was the most impressive win I’ve seen this year on the Derby trail.  Pyro’s run in the Risen Star is probably second, but this is going to be the one that sticks out in my mind.  Will there still be questions left to answer?  Of course.  Almost immediately the ESPN crew began speculating that the hard dirt surface of Churchill and the possibility of a good amount of pace would be factors working against the colt. 

I’m not really concerned with that yet since we’ve got a full month to go.  For now all I’m concerned with is the fact that we’ve got us someone who can give Pyro a run for the money.  We’ve got a horse race starting to take shape now for May, and if somehow War Pass were to get back on track in the Wood Memorial, suddenly things would start to look a lot more interesting than they have been. 

Of the horses running behind, I really liked what Tomcito did coming from last to third, especially since that was his first race in months.  Jockey Jorge Chaves mentioned that he seemed a little tired, but the colt has raced grueling distances in the past.  He looks to me like one that could move forward from this race along with the winner. 

Smooth Air will almost assuredly be heading to Louisville as well after bagging $200,000 in earnings with his 2nd place finish.  I was expecting him to get tired in the stretch but he showed he could handle the distance just fine.  Hey Byrn got up late for 4th.

Big Brown is likely to envoke visions of Barbaro, as two years ago the legendary colt won the Florida Derby in route to his 2006 Kentucky Derby victory.  My advice is to let Big Brown be Big Brown.  Resist the urge to compare.  Just let him mature into the horse he will be. We may have a great one on our hands here. 


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Categories : Big Brown, Gulfstream Park, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Florida Derby shaping up to be a good one

25 03 2008

It looks like we’ve got quite a race shaping up for this Saturday’s running of the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In the past 12 years, 3 winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to prevail in the Kentucky Derby, including Barbaro (2006), Monarchos (2001), and Thunder Gulch (1995).  The 2008 edition of the Florida Derby has many big name competitors on the Derby trail and figures to be a useful measuring stick when attempting to separate the pack come the first Saturday in May.

There are several horses from our Road to the Kentucky Derby rankings, including Big Brown, Hey Byrn, Elysium Fields, and Fierce Wind.  In addition, it is possible that Majestic Warrior will run this weekend.  Joining this group will be other live competitors including Tomcito, Cool Gator, Face the Cat, and Smooth Air.

big-brown.jpg Big Brown is the likely post time favorite for the 1 1/8 mile race.  The son of Boundary is 2 for 2 lifetime, including an eye popping 104 Beyer speed figure in an allowance level victory last out.  He broke his maiden by 11 lengths last summer at Saratoga before hoof problems sidelined him for several months.  Rick Dutrow has brought the colt back impressively and there is already quite a buzz circulating among horseplayers about his ability to compete with the big boys this May.  I think most of the horse racing world is anxious to see him this weekend.  Kent Desormeaux will ride the beautiful looking colt that makes a stunning impression visually.

Big Brown romps in his 2008 debut at Gulfstream Park in early March

hey-byrn.jpg Hey Byrn is a horse that my friend Ron Correll of the State Journal-Register is very excited about.  Trained by Eddie Plesa Jr., the son of Put it Back defeated onetime Derby hopeful Alaazo on 3/2/08 in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.  Prior to that he prevailed by an impressive 14 lengths on February 10, earning a 97 Beyer speed figure.  Interestingly, Jose Lezcano has picked up the mount in place of Edgar Prado, who will be busy in Dubai this weekend.   At the end of his aforementioned 14 length victory in February, the track announcer had yelled out “he’s for real!”  We’ll certainly find out if he’s for real this weekend.  Ron’s got one of the best eyes for talent I’ve ever seen so I’m equally as anxious to see him as I am Big Brown.

Hey Byrn wins impressively at Calder last August as a 2 year old

elysium-fields.jpg As if all that weren’t enough, another colt that I think very highly of is entered for Saturday’s race.  Elysium Fields, the talented son of El Prado who we last saw battling it out for 2nd against Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth, returns looking for Graded Stakes money that can help send him to Kentucky.  I really like this colt.  I thought he was much the best in the Fountain of Youth, but he may actually be stepping up in company today against the likes of Big Brown and Hey Byrn.  Barclay Tagg put blinkers on him before the Fountain of Youth and the colt responded with a rousing run in the stretch.  After Cool Coal Man passed him, he had enough left to fight back and make a late run for the money.   He broke his maiden in January at Gulfstream by 8 lengths.   He worked 6 furlongs in 1:12 at Gulfstream officially, with an unofficial 7 furlongs in 1:26. 

Elysium Fields, after losing the lead to Cool Coal Man, fights back in the final strides to lose by a neck

Fierce Wind wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes over Big Truck Fierce Wind is a Nick Zito trained son of Dixie Union.  Most notably, he defeated Big Truck in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 16. Big Truck of course went on to win the Tampa Bay Derby over Atoned and War Pass.  Fierce Wind will be seeking his 4th consecutive victory on Saturday.  The colt breezed 4 furlongs in 49 seconds on 3/18.

Fierce Wind defeats Big Truck and Z Humor in the Sam F. Davis Stakes

Tomcito Tomcito is a very interesting colt that most folks are probably not familiar with.  He’s a Stakes winner shipping in from Peru that was a mere $7500 purchase as a yearling.  That’s rather amazing considering his daddy is Street Cry, who produced 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and is one of the most sought after sires in the world.  Tomcito will make his U.S. debut on Saturday and will look to invoke memories of Canonero II – the famed Venezuelan colt that won the 1971 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.  The colt worked 5 furlongs in 58.6 on 3/17.  He won the prestigious Nacional Derby in Peru with a resounding move in the stretch from very wide.

Tomcito’s wide run prevails in the Derby Nacional (Peru)

 

Smooth Air is yet another contender in the stacked field on Saturday.  The son of Smooth Jazz won the 7 furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park earlier in the year on January 5.  Most recently, he was third behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay on February 16.

Face the Cat is a highly regarded son of Tale of the Cat that many horseplayers have been waiting to see for quite some time.  Padua Stables purchased him after an allowance level victory on 1/30 at Gulfstream and promptly transferred him from Helen Pits barn to Todd Pletcher’s barn.  Many will note that story sounds eerily similar to that of Curlin in 2007.  The colt breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 in his most recent prep workout.

Cool Gator is a son of Macho Uno, who was the 2 year old champion back in 2000.  He’s trained by Danny Vella and will enlist the services of jockey Eddie Castro.  He appears to be a bit over-matched here as he was recently second behind fellow Florida Derby competitor Nistle’s Crunch in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race on 1/30 at Gulfstream.  Still, Vella thinks the colt is progressing nicely and wants to see how he stacks up against the competition.

majestic_warrior_l.jpg Majestic Warrior remains a possibility for the Florida Derby.  The son of A.P. Indy was at one point in time (read:  around New Year’s Day) my selection for the Kentucky Derby.  Since then just about everything has gone wrong.  First he was delayed with some minor physical problems, and then after a long layoff he came back to finish a disappointing 7th in the Louisiana Derby.  He’ll need to turn things around quickly if he’s to remain on the Derby trail, but it’s possible the colt needed that last race.  He did win the Hopeful in 2007 as a 2 year old.  Majestic Warrior breezed 4 furlongs in 49.2 on 3/19 at Payson Park. 

Other entries in the race include Nistle’s Crunch, BB Frank, and Da’ Tara.  It would be a huge surprise to me if one of them were able to prevail this weekend.  This race looks loaded with developing talent and could wind up being the best prep race we’ve seen so far this year when all is said and done. 

I’ll be back later in the week to make official selections after the post positions have been assigned. 


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Categories : Big Brown, Elysium Fields, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Majestic Warrior

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