The cream rises to the top

13 06 2010

Following a turbulent spring in which the 3-year-old division never really sorted itself out the way many of us had hoped – this Saturday provided an opportunity to establish a firm sense of where things stood among the ranks of older females and males.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra had been the subject of intense scrutiny and conjecture – as friends and foes alike pondered what had happened to the killer instinct with which the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro had dispatched her challengers over the course of her previous campaign.

Struggling in the stretch against the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle – who while good horses certainly did not appear to be “Rachel beaters” on paper headed into their contests with the champ – had left a foul taste in many folks mouths.  Tensions were running so high that there were calls for her to be retired – and even exercise jockey Dominic Terry wound up being replaced by Steve Asmussen following some sort of disagreement (Terry, it must be noted, was a fan favorite who routinely conversed over the internet with Rachel’s fans – so this author was sad to see him removed).

Then, of course, there was the looming specter of the “figure 8″ – the singular piece of equipment that had caused so much grief as it seemed that Asmussen was trying to alter the way in which Rachel Alexandra responded to the bit as well as when and where she would make her move while racing.

As noted by Sid Fernando – Rachel Alexandra did not wear the figure 8 when sent to post yesterday for the G2 Fleur de Lis.  The result, as may have been expected, was that the filly ran off the screen again, invoking memories of her victories last year in the Mother Goose, Haskell, and Kentucky Oaks.

While watching the race live, it may not have seemed such a foregone conclusion to her throngs of fans.  It looked for a moment like a repeat of what we had seen against Unrivaled Belle and Zardana.  Rachel collared Jessica is Back and moved to the front, but then Distinctive Dixie seemed poised to pounce on her.

It was then that something peculiar happened.  Rather than allow a “lesser” horse to surge past her as she had done both times this year, Rachel seemed to remember who she was, digging down deep to procure a semblance of that greatness.  She pulled away brilliantly in the stretch, and with a furlong to go the races was as good as over.

Full results chart from Equibase

The final margin put her at 10 1/2 lengths in front of Distinctive Dixie, crossing the wire in the 1 1/8 mile race in 1:48.78.   The distance and time are not insignificant as just 4 races later many of the top older males in the land would go the same route in the G1 Stephen Foster.

Comparing the two races directly is a bit difficult to do – as the Stephen Foster featured a full field of 11 runners who were quite comfortable setting  a much slower pace early on (:24.50 and :48.72 as opposed to the :23.93 and :47.25 of the Fleur de Lis).  Still, it’s noteworthy that when Blame stopped the clock after prevailing in the Stephen Foster, he did so almost half a second slower than Rachel at 1:49.37.

Take nothing away from Blame’s performance though.  He absolutely devoured the highly regarded Battle Plan in the stretch, overcoming a highly disadvantageous post position draw in the 11 hole in the process.

We noted headed into Preakness day that we thought Blame was a serious race horse who belonged in the discussion for the best older male in the handicap division – and this performance in the Stephen Foster clearly makes him a horse to keep an eye on as the season progresses towards the Breeders’ Cup championships this fall.

Of course these weren’t the only two horses making  strong appearances.  Thanks to imperfections of racing’s calendar you also had Rail Trip winning the G2 California Stakes at Hollywood Park.  Additionally, there was Life at Ten staging the upset over the aforementioned Unrivaled Belle in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, and Miss Singhsix prevailing in the G3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park (a race that you would be excused for thinking may not have existed, considering the total lack of coverage it received).

As if all this action were not enough – there’s still the undefeated super mare Zenyatta today at Hollywood Park in the G1 Vanity!  That’s right – the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and widely regarded greatest horse on the planet.  While it’s a bit odd to see such a horse running on a Sunday, I think it goes without saying that we’ll take our Zenyatta races any way we can get them.

Here’s hoping that advertising and marketing execs have been paying attention whenever the spine-tingling Breeders’ Cup commercials featuring Zenyatta’s ’09 Classic victory air – they are precisely what the sport needs!

Now, as ESPNs Jeremy Plonk has rightly pointed out – if only we could get all these horses together in a race (or two) – rather than spread out across the nation in races that tend to cannibalize the importance of each.

While I understand the criticism of the column linked to in the above statement – the one benefit of having so many races for the same division strung out across so many tracks on the same weekend may have been the reappearance of Rachel Alexandra.  That may have been exactly what she needed.

I still don’t think she’s ready to throw down with the likes of a Zenyatta – but it felt darn good to see her pull away in the stretch and “stick her tongue out” at the competition.

Now there’s only one thing left to do – get Zenyatta home on top in the Vanity to run that unbeaten streak to 17 for 17.


Comments : 8 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Blame, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek Undefeated Jockey and Living Legend

31 08 2009
It gives me great pleasure to once again welcome Mr. Del Mar, otherwise known as Matthew Galbreth, for another guest author piece.  When we last left him, Matt was galvanizing some ideas he’d been kicking around in his head about how to generate renewed interest for the game.  Now he’s returned with another idea for how to connect with the younger generation that the sport so badly needs.
 
 
Without further adieu, take it away, Matt.
 
**************************************************
 
The horse racing world has never seen a talent like this and probably never will again.  Bolt Speedman rode a promising young talent aptly named MEGA HORSE, who he also owns, to victory at Hollywood Park June 30th only to retire that same day with a one for one undefeated record.  Maybe some of you have never heard of Bolt Speedman, but many of you probably have heard of Pro Skateboarder and MTV star Rob Dyrdek.  Mr. Dyrdek has many talents and goes by many names, some of you may know him as R&B sensation Bobby Light.  I think his most impressive performance yet came on the day the man wore the soon to be legendary DC silks.
 
 
The entire horse racing industry knows the importance of attracting new fans, horseplayers and owners to our sport.  Recently the industry has been on the right track by trying to attract more youth to our sport. With Mr. Dyrdek involved and the beach culture that Del Mar happily attracts every season we may just get some new youthful fans that challenge the notion that horse racing is a sport for the wealthy and may not be the sport of kings, it’s a sport for everyone.  This is evident in TVG’s Pick 4 Posse and has always been a main staple of my favorite track’s marketing strategy, Del Mar.  Horse racing has been called the sport of kings, long before that and still to this day surfing is also called the sport of kings.  The battle for this namesake finds neutral ground under the white California Flag of truce where the surf meets the turf at old Del Mar.
 
I’m sure some of you are wondering, surfing the sport of kings?  That’s right.  When Captain James Cook first discovered the Hawaiian Islands in 1778 he found what seemed to him some rather strange behavior from the natives.  He saw them standing on strange wooden planks and moving effortlessly along the face of breaking waves.  He was even more shocked to see the royalty of this culture take part in this activity and be for what seemed to him inappropriately dressed for monarchy.  The ancient Hawaiian royals even had surfboards shaped to give them an edge on their subjects and special locations where only royalty could take part in this strange activity, hence he deemed it the sport of kings.
 
I’m on the wrong side of 25, but still hold the tag of a 20 something.  Most of my friends are around my same age and most of them have very different and usually negative opinions about my pursuit of being a true professional horseplayer and my love of the game.  They change their tune when Del Mar is open and ask me for handicapping advice on a daily basis.  Why is this?  It’s because they are not going there for horse racing they are going there for dollar beers, a chance at meeting the lovely ladies in attendance and a day of enjoying the view of the Pacific.  Many of them, especially those who made some money off my plays, end up fans of our sport simply by getting in the door and having a chance to see these amazing equine athletes.  I wish Del Mar was open more often as it seems to be our best chance at making horse racing cool and bringing in some new fans.
 
Bolt Speedman AKA Rob Dyrdek may have done just as much for our sport in just one episode of his hit MTV show “Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory” as all the top horse racing marketing researchers have in a year.  I would hope all of you try to watch this episode, maybe use the old DVR as a way to return the favor he has done for all of us tune in on Thursday nights and fling this man some ratings, I started doing it for Jim Rome for the same reasons.
 
I have another idea that goes beyond just Mr. Dyrdek.  When the many celebrities that love horse racing attend the track let’s roll out the red carpet, let’s treat them like royalty and let’s try to make them more visible and more vocal about our beloved sport.  Maybe have a Rob Dyrdek day where we invite many action sports superstars to watch MEGA HORSE trounce the competition.  If there are concerns about having so many young people there on one day, I think that can be resolved by giving them a place to go.  Maybe set a section aside for the 20 somethings where they can all hang out in the same area and have a different place for families to go, maybe the infield, here’s another one… how about pony rides for the kids in the infield, a strong presence of security and a daycare facility where the parents can drop them off for an hour or two and enjoy some time as a couple.
 
 
It can be done my good friends and I think the time to hesitate is through, let’s see horse racing break on through to the other side.  The side of major network coverage, the side where the newcomers don’t feel intimidated, but welcomed, the side where there are many different ways to enjoy the track and everyone has a place just for them.  If you see someone new at the track or online at sites like the TVG Community help them, I promise you it won’t cut into your win odds much if any at all and you may have a lot more fun, I am.  This may not be the sport of kings stateside, leave that for the Europeans, we are democratic and united baby.  Let’s see that California Flag and the DC silks more and more, and let’s all give a big hand to Bolt Speedman a brave man who climbed on one these beasts and rode it to victory in his very first start as a jockey.
 
Mr. Del Mar AKA Matthew Galbreth 

Comments : 59 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , ,
Categories : Del Mar, Fantasy Horse Racing, Hollywood Park, horse racing

Saturday Selections – 7/18/09

17 07 2009

Another Saturday is upon us, and you know what that means…time for some weekend warrior picks.  This weekend we’ll weave our way through feature races at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, Belmont Park, Arlington Park, and Hollywood Park.  Then, on Sunday, I’ll be headed out to Delaware Park for a chance to take in the Del Cap live, even if the race is being run sans Rachel.

Delaware Park – Race 7 – The Delaware Oaks (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (3;57 ET)

  • #2 Bon Jovi Girl (3/1)
  • #7 Payton d’Oro (6/1)
  • #3 Livin Lovin (2/1*)

Whoa…we’re half way there.  WHOA whoa, livin’ on a prayer!  (sorry, couldn’t help myself)  :-)

We start things off with the 58th running of the Delaware Oaks.  Everyone loves a good rematch, and for Bon Jovi Girl and Payton d’Oro, this will mark the 3rd consecutive time these fillies have locked horns, with each runner splitting the previous races.  Can anyone say “rubber match?”

Bon Jovi girl has really started to turn things up a notch.  I first noticed this in the post parade of the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico, when I tweeted that she “made quite an impression” in the paddock.  Out on the track she did not disappoint, but was unable to reel in Payton d’Oro.  Note that she was bumped at the start of that race.  She came back to Delaware to crush her rival in the Susan’s Girl, proving for all time that Bon Jovi Girl is a force in stakes races associated with the name “Susan.” She’s got the look of a very tough competitor here, and is the “horse for the course” play with a sensational 4 wins in 6 starts at Delaware (along with a place and a show finish).

Payton d’Oro is a fine filly in her own right, as evidenced by her triumphant march through the maiden, allowance, and stakes levels with 4 consecutive victories.  My guess is that she didn’t like the sloppy track she faced in the Susan’s Girl last out, so with a return to more preferable footing, she ought to be able to improve on that performance. She’s a Medaglia d’Oro filly, so you know you can’t count her out of any fight, and to be honest, 6/1 is not a bad price at all.  She’ll likely be the value play here and at such odds would be well worth a win wager, especially considering Larry Jones is involved.  Is there a better trainer in the nation when it comes to 3-year-old fillies?  Not for my money.

Livin Lovin is the runner to keep an eye on in the paddock.  She’s a Birdstone filly, so we’ll get to see offspring of the two hottest sires this year square off in a relatively evenly matched race.  She was 4th and only two lengths and change behind Gabby’s Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie, two very well regarded fillies who would likely crush this field, in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day.  In other words  it would not be a surprise to see her in the winner’s circle. 

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The Jaipur (G3) – 6 Furlongs – Turf (5:17 ET)

  • #2 True Quality (3/1)
  • #3 Heros Reward (5/2*)
  • #4 Due Date (6/1)

I think it goes without saying that turf sprints are not my strong suit.  With that in mind, I’ve decided that I can’t take the obvious selection and play Heros Reward as my top choice.  It doesn’t mean I won’t have any money on him, as I likely will.  It’s just that my top choices ALWAYS get burned in turf sprints.  It’s like the curse of the Bambino.  The rulers of the heavens must not want me to prevail in contracted grass events.  So what’s a handicapper to do?  Well, when all else fails, look for the speed.

True Quality makes his turf debut in the 26th running of The Jaipur this Saturday.  Usually I’m not one to play first time turfers, and yes, I’ve paid the price at the window on numerous occasions for such hesitancy.  Call me a stubborn old mule, it’s just that I prefer to have some evidence I can bank on in the horse’s previous running lines.  I’m tossing that out the window with True Quality for two primary reasons.  First, the son of Elusive Quality is a proven commodity from a class perspective as evidenced by his Grade 2 victory in the General George Handicap at Laurel Park back in February.  Then, there’s the fact that he appears to be the lone speed of the field, meaning everyone else will have to catch him.

Obviously if someone is going to catch him, the likely candidate is Heros Reward.  The son of Partner’s Hero is the most proven grass commodity in the race and boasts 10 victories over the turf (including a pair of Grade 3 wins).  He’s been knocking heads with some good runners such as Mr. Nightlinger in his previous efforts, and it’s not hard to imagine him turning in a dominating performance on Saturday.  It’s a risky proposition to play against him, and to be honest of the odds stay where they are from the morning line (i.e., only separated by half a point from True Quality), then it won’t make much sense to take a risk in trying to beat him.  The whole key for Heros Reward would appear to be not letting True Quality get too far ahead in the early going.  He’s got to keep it a bit closer than he has in previous races. 

Due Date and Silver Timber both look very usable to me underneath for the exotic wagers.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Virginia Derby (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:59 ET)

  • #9 Battle of Hastings (4/1)
  • #4 Nicanor (7/2)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (8/1)

It’s amazing to me how it’s always the turf races that come up so deep.  In the older male division, we seemingly get some combination of Gio Ponti, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal, not to mention worthy competitors like Better Talk Now, Wesley, and anything the Europeans decide to ship over.  Here we’ve got 10 3-year-old colts in the 12th running of the Virginia Derby, and once again it comes up as the type of race that anyone entered could win.

I settled with Battle of Hastings as top choice for a few reasons.  First, I need to get out of the way that I’m actually a direct descendant of a Norman cavalry commander named “Drago” who fought under William the Conqueror (aka “the Bastard”) at the Battle of Hastings in 1066.  He wound up settling lands in present day Scotland, and I like to think he may have commanded an ancestor of the Wallace clan from Braveheart fame (the Wallace family purportedly being descendants of Norman invaders, according to some sources). Obviously none of that has anything to do with the race at hand, but it’s an angle that is prominent in my mind whenever this guy races, so in the interest of full disclosure, I felt obliged to mention.  As for the horse in question, he strikes me as a very consistent type that you play against at your own peril.

Obviously most of the attention in this race will be focused on Nicanor.  I don’t think I even need to  mention why, but I’ll do so anyways.  He’s the much hyped brother of the beloved Barbaro. While he may have spent his career thus far in Barbaro’s shadow, his last two races have proven he’s something of a talented runner in his own right.  My only fears with him are that he’ll be overbet by virtue of his connections, and he’s been on the lead wiring the field in each of his two wins.  He’ll probably need to show a bit more versatility here, as this field has a good deal of zip signed on.  Everyone will be rooting for him, and if he wins it’ll make for a smashing headline.

Lime Rickey is my longshot play.  Call it a hunch bet, as I know his past performance lines aren’t the most impressive of the field.  It’s just that you’ve got to pay attention to Lemon Drop Kid offspring whenever they are stretching out (in this case to 1 1/4 miles), and you’ve always got to be wary of them suddenly making a fairly large leap forward progression wise as they mature.  Judging from some of his last efforts, he’s been right there.  The morning line of 8/1 is very generous and quite worth a play.

The same can be said for Affirmatif, a horse who has generated a fair amount of buzz in his first 4 races.  Like Lime Rickey, he’s at generous 8/1 odds, not bad for a runner who scored a 100 Beyer figure in his debut race.

 

Arlingont Park – Race 9 – The Arlington Oaks (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (5:03 CT)

  • #1 C S Silk (5/2)
  • #2 Hot Cha Cha (8/5*)
  • #3 Always in My Heart (8/1)

We move to Arlington Park for the 30th running of the Arlington Oaks.  We’re only dealing with a field of 7 runners here, and I thought 4 of them had legitimate shots to wind up in the winner’s circle, including the above mentioned horses and #6 Peach Brew. 

Hot Cha Cha is the top choice, but the odds aren’t very attractive, so I’ll be looking to beat the chalk.  Hot Cha Cha may wind up proving the best, but I didn’t think there was quite enough in the past performances to take such low odds when better value presents itself elsewhere.  Not surprisingly, I wound up on the Medaglia d’Oro runner C S Silk.  C S Silk is rather intriguing as it’s hard to figure out what exactly this horse’s preferred surface is.  I think it’s safe to say it isn’t dirt, so this race over the synthetics could play into her hands.  She’s exiting a last out victory and has fired a bullet drill in the morning of July 9, so I’m going to guess that she’s ready for a prime effort.

Always in My Heart warrants a long look in the post parade as well, as you get the feeling this is a steadily improving daughter of Hennessy.  This will obviously be the toughest field she’s faced, but another move forward is not out of the question.  Likewise, as mentioned before, I think Peach Brew has to be left in the equation.

This may be a small field, but be careful here befor you tee up as this one appears to be more difficult than it may seem on first glance. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 6 - The A Gleam (G2) – 7 Furlongs (3:30 PT)

  • #2 Coco Belle (3/1*)
  • #4 Silver Swallow (6/1)
  • #6 Lady Lumbejack (9/2)

We head out west to Hollywood Park, sadly for what may be one of the final times in the tracks history (apart from a brief 5 week meet later in the year).  The 55th running of the A Gleam denoting a long and storied tradition at Hollywood that in all probability will be run at one of the other California tracks in 2010. 

Coco Belle is the horse to beat here, and will be facing a distance (7 Furlongs) that she is unproven at thus far in her career.  She’ll likely be on the gas early on and will look to wire the field right out of the gate.  The only real threat to her running style should come from the Bob Baffert runner Cry and Catch Me breaking from the 7 hole.  If these two get locked up in a speed duel, it would obviously boost the chances of the off the pace runners. 

If the race does open up, suddenly Silver Swallow and Lady Lumberjack would be prime contenders.  Silver Swallow tends to leave herself a bit more to do in the stretch than Lady Lumberjack does, so take your pick between these runners if you’re trying to beat the lukewarm chalk.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Evita Argentina, who defeated colts in the San Vicente back in February at Santa Anita going 7 furlongs.  Evita is only a 3-year-old, but obviously warrants some consideration as well.  I also wouldn’t count She’s Cheeky out of the mix here, but ultimately had to take a stand against her as you can’t pick every horse in the race. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The Swaps (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

  • #8 Grazen (8/5*)
  • #4 Misremembered (5/1)
  • #7 Quidici Man (20/1)

We finish the day with the feature race from Hollywood, the 36th running of The Swaps.  This race appears to be all about Grazen, the talented 3-year-old son of Benchmark who has posted a pair of triple digit Beyer figures in his last 3 races (along with a respectable 97).  He’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Hollywood and would appear to be the controlling speed of the race on paper.  No doubt he’ll be the key horse of many Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagers on the day.  For me, the important thing here is that he’s still got room for improvement, and has handled in the past the two horses I thought rated the best shots as contenders.

Misremembered faced Grazen last out in the Affirmed Handicap and ran a very game 2nd to Grazen.  Like his rival, there’s also still room for improvement here.  He’ll likely have to hope somebody can wear Grazen down a bit to make him vulnerable in the stretch, but with another move forward anything is possible. 

Quidici Man looks very underrated here to me at 20/1.  I don’t think he’s a serious shot to win this race, but I’d certainly have him covered underneath on the exotics…especially at 20/1.  He’s found a way to hit the board in 9 of 12 lifetime races.  There are obvoiusly several others to consider as well, including Conservative, Advice, and Massone.  In the end though, my hunch was that they’d all be running for place and show.

 

Best of luck to all!


Comments : 7 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Nicanor

Whirlwind Saturday

11 07 2009

What a Saturday it’s been. It was an odd day, filled with the ups and downs that accompany horseplaying. Things didn’t go particularly well for my top selections in the pre-race handicapping, yet it sill seemed totally enjoyable to play along.  Usually I’m a bit “bummed out” if we’re losing, but today didn’t seem to effect me that much.  Most likely this is attributable to the fact that we did manage to get 5 second choices home (with one technically being a top selection by virtue of a scratch), but I digress.  Let’s look back for a moment on the afternoon that was:

 

 

Early in the afternoon, Game Face got back to her winning ways by taking her first Grade 1 stakes in the Princess Rooney Handicap.  I had mentioned her as a “possible play against” in the pre-race handicapping, but that was when I was focusing on Marina Ballerina, who ultimately scratched.  That left the class of Game Face to deal with what turned out to be a field of pretenders.  She seemingly won for fun and in doing so ads luster to the very strong contingent of female runners in North America at the moment.  I dubbed last year the “year of the filly” with the impressive performances of Zenyatta, Zarkava, and Goldikova (not to mention the Philadelphia “Phillies” becoming World Champions again for the first time since 1980), but this year could still wind up more impressive for the gals when all is said and done. 

 

 

 

Gio Ponti made it a hat trick of Grade 1 victories for the year by outlasting a fairly deep field of contenders in the Man O’ War at Belmont Park. The son of  Tale of the Cat just keeps on going strong, and with 3 Grade 1 turf wins now joins the discussion with Einstein for top male turf horse in the nation.  It’ll be interesting to see what the future plans are for this fall, as Gio Ponti owns a victory (with a 98 Beyer) over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  I’m fairly certain he’ll stick to the grass and point to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but stranger things have happened.

 

 

Heavy 1/9 favorite Benny the Bull was upset in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in the “Summit of Speed” event.  This was one of the races I totally crapped out on, as neither my 2nd or 3rd choice were able to pull the upset.  Instead, longshot Eaton’s Gift stunned everyone by holding off a late run from Benny the Bull in the stretch.  Many (including me) had been anticipating a big run from Benny, but his late punch just didn’t have quite the same “oomph” that we’d seen in previous efforts such as the 2008 True North Handicap on Belmont Stakes day.  To put this in perspective, Eaton’s Gift hadn’t cracked the 82 Beyer level in any of his last 3 efforts, and was running into a perennial 100+ Beyer figure monster in Benny.  None of that mattered in the stretch at Calder.  I guess Benny just can’t catch a break at there, as it was at Calder last year that he was injured and ulimtately sidelined for 11 months.

 

 

Last, but certainly not least, Rail Trip was able to upset the highly acclaimed Parading and the filly Life is Sweet to run away with the TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup.  The son of Jump Start (A.P. Indy) joins the likes of esteemed former champions Seabsicuit, Affirmed, and Cigar as horses who have taken the premier race of the Hollywood Park summer meet.  Who knows for sure if we’ll see another Gold Cup at Hollywood? 

I’ve got to tip my hat here to Superterrifc from Green But Game, who was tweeting  her support of the horse and mentioned that she did the “digital walk of shame” to fire up her betting account with more cash just to bet him.  Nice job, Dana!  No shame in that what-so-ever! Rail Trip sure did look good in the post parade!  Here’s hoping her bank account is now totally “ranch” (it’s an inside joke that she and a few other twitter followers will get…but do expect an occasional and totally gratuitous “ranch” reference in posts going forward).

Getting back to the Gold Cup, I thought Life is Sweet also looked fantastic in the post parade.  It’s nice to see that the filly was running on well for show when seemingly all of the other off-the-pace types and closers were running in place and not really doing much.  My initial thought was that they may have waited a moment too long to ask for Life is Sweet’s run, but I’m not sure it would’ve made a real difference either way considering how smoothly Rail Trip was gliding to the wire.  Still, hats off to the Wygod family for having the courage to race her against the boys.  She proved she could hold her own as the post time favorite, Parading, wound up totally out of the money (and looked rather sweaty and anxious in the post parade).  Little by little you can see that notion that “fillies shouldn’t run against colts” being seriously challenged, and in my mind rightly so. 

In other action throughout the day Just as Well took the Arlington Handicap (G3).  Atomic Rain upset Papa Clem in the Long Branch ($175k), and would appear to be bound for the Haskell next.  Might he run into the super filly Rachel Alexandra if he does?  Only time will tell.  And of course, Giant Oak pulled another “Giant choke” routine as the heavy favorite in the American Derby.

One other race struck me as rather noteworthy today – a race that, as Foolish Pleasure opines, might be somewhat “less heralded” than the above races.  Like an unstoppable rebel force, the procession of winners sired by Medaglia d”Oro continued today with a victory from 2-year-old daughter Dashing Debby in the 34th running of the JJ’s Dream ($100k) at Calder.  We’ve already seen Rachel Alexandra make history with her Preakness victory, which came hot on the heels of fellow Medaglia d’Oro offspring Payton d’Oro winning the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico.  Add to that Gabby’s Golden Gal, C.S. Silk, Renda, and She’s our Annie.  That’s quite an impressive list for a sire who is only this year experiencing his first 3-year-old crop to go to post.

It would appear to be a two horse race between “Medags” (and yes, before anyone corrects me, I’m aware that the “g” is silent in Medaglia d’Oro) and Birdstone for top sire of the year honors. 


Comments : 2 Comments »
Tags: , , , , ,
Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Benny the Bull, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Rachel Alexandra

Saturday Selections 7/11/09

10 07 2009

Another weekend is upon us, and you know what that means; it’s time for weekend warrior horseplayers to zero in on the major stakes action occurring across the country.  This Saturday in particular presents a plethora of opportunity, and we’ll be taking a closer look at the happenings at Calder, Belmont, Hollywood, Monmouth, and Arlington in an effort to pluck some winners from out of the air.  The story lines run deep, ranging from another chance to see Benny the Bull, to the return of Papa Clem, and westward journey for Parading, who I was able to get a firsthand look at in the Dixie at Pimlico on Preakness Day.

First, a couple of notes:

  • I’ve got to bid a bit of an emotional farewell to one of this year’s more prominent 3-year-olds in Pioneer of the Nile, who has been retired from racing due to soft-tissue concerns.  I know I wasn’t his biggest fan, but I’m certainly appreciative of the traffic he helped generate for this site.  Would you believe that despite my focus on runners such as Curlin, Zenyatta, and Rachel Alexandra, that the undisputed king of search engine traffic causing people to land on this site was none other than Mr. Pioneer (or misspellings of his name).  Unreal.  He was a blog traffic gold mine – which tells me he must have some seriously devoted fans out there, and my heart goes out to each of them as well.  Of course, I can’t think of him without thinking of Mike from NY – who always pops into my mind when discussing Empire Makers. 

 

  • Secondly, the TBA  homepage has undergone some serious revisions and is now ready to be unveiled to the public.  Some folks spent a good deal of time putting it all together, so if you get a chance swing on over and let us know what you think. 

Now back to the main event… 

Calder Race 8 – The Carry Back (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (3:56 ET)

  • #1 You Luckie Mann (9/5*)
  • #5 Not for Silver (4/1)
  • #2 Ask Joe (4/1)

Technically, the 35th running of The Carry Back is the 2nd leg of the “all stakes pick 4″ sequence at Calder, but I didn’t really have a strong enough opinion of the previous race (The Azalea – G3) to kick things off there.  Plus, we’re covering 7 races here. Just like we can’t bet every horse in each race, there’s simply not enough time in the day to go in depth on EVERY stakes race this weekend.  Back to the race at hand though…

You Luckie Mann simply looks much the best here on paper.  The son of Exchange Rate has yet to finish out of the trifecta in 8 lifetime races, including 4 wins.  He’s also the overwhelming “horse for the course” selection with all of his lifetime victories (4) coming here at Calder.  The price won’t be very appealing, but he might be useful single if you’re playing the exotics.  

Not For Silver looks like the most noteworthy challenger of the field.  Trainer Michael Trombetta is having a sensational year (23%), and this is the runner with the most graded stakes experience in the field.  On the downside, he hasn’t won since rattling off 3 straight victories to begin his career, but he ran into horses like Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can in the last two efforts that would likely destroy this field.

Truest Legend is a rather interesting “x-factor” type of runner in here.  I’m not fond of the odds (3/1), but he certainly looks like he’ll be a pace factor in his return to the dirt.  Ultimately I sided against him and went with Ask Joe for 3rd choice.  It was a tough call, but Ask Joe’s victories at the stakes level on dirt tips the scale in his favor as far as I’m concerned. 

  

Belmont Race 7 – The Man O’ War (Grade 1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (4:12 ET)

  • #7 Midships (3/1)
  • #9 Gio Ponti (5/2*)
  • #8 Dancing Forever (9/2)

Talk about some painful memories.  It’s hard to believe that it was a year ago already that I took the family up to Belmont to watch Curlin in his turf “debut” in last year’s running of the Man O’ War and left with a healthy dose of heartache and pain.  Looking over this year’s edition, I’m struck by the lack of likely pace outside of 3/1 second choice on the morning line, Midships.  If he gets loose on the lead, this could be a gate-to-wire type of race.  However, we are dealing with the turf, so that’s anything but a foregone conclusion.  There are also some “x-factor” type invaders from Europe who could be close up pressing the pace, which might open things up for the closers.

Speaking of closers, we’ve got two good ones here in both Dancing Forever and Gio Ponti, and I think they both make logical contenders in the exotics.  Gio Ponti is a horse that I’ve basically given the Rodney Dangerfield routine to in his last two races (“no respect!”), and he’s burned me both times.  Suffice to say I won’t let that happen again.  I’d prefer a better pace setup for him, but he’s proven to be a very valiant competitor.  You don’t win $1.2 million in 12 lifetime starts by accident. 

Dancing Forever supporters have to look a little bit further back for hist last victory in the Manhattan almost a year ago, and must also overlook two losses to Grand Couturier as well.  It’s a close call between these two for the final selection spot, which seems to be a repetitive theme in many of the races we’re covering this week.  I could also make a bit of a case for Marsh Slide here.  Just be careful here as this looks like a race in which several contenders have fairly decent shots of winding up in the winner’s circle photo.

 

Calder Race 9 – The Princess Rooney Handicap (Grade 1) – 6 Furlongs (4:26 ET)

  • #9 Marina Ballerina (6/1)
  • #6 Game Face (3/1)
  • #4 B.R’s Girl (8/1)

Moving back to Calder, the main story line for the 25th running of the Princess Rooney Handicap is the scratch of Indian Blessing, who evidently was given some antibiotics by trainer Bob Baffert who then decided that she’d likely test positive and be in jeopardy of having a win (should she have prevailed, which would’ve been highly probable) overturned.   Good move on Baffert’s part to sit her down then.  If she’s been fighting an illness, then give her some additional time off.

With the leading lady out of the race, most of the attention will probably focus on Game Face, a multiple graded stakes winner with nearly half a million dollars in lifetime earnings.  I’ll be honest, my gut tells me that while the “real” Game Face of last year would easily handle this field, she’s probably a play against this weekend.  I’m not sure what exactly happened in her last effort at Belmont, but trainer Todd Pletcher has been hard at work trying to get the classy daughter of Menifee back into her usual form.  Given the fact that she’s the likely favorite, I’ll probably try to beat her – but I wouldn’t leave her off the multi-race exotic wagers.  Not with the class she’s previously shown.

Marina Ballerina is the horse that really jumps off the page at me.  She’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Calder, and has 4 wins at the 6 furlong distance.  Even better, her recent form is most encouraging.  There’s just so much to like here, and that recent bullet workout of 4 furlongs in 47 and 3 on July 6 makes me think she’s the one to beat.  Of course, looking over the Daily Racing Form, it appears I’m not alone in that opinion, so don’t expect anything close to the 6/1 she was “blessed” with on the morning line. 

Rounding out the selections, I was hopelessly torn between either B.R’s Girl or Jessica is Back.  Ultimately I sided with B.R’s Girl for now, but that could easily change depending on who makes the stronger appearance in the post parade.  In other words, that last effort for all 3 of my selections in the U Can Do It on 7/13 looks like the key race here to focus on from a past performance standpoint.  They might run back in the same order if Game Face falters.

 

Monmouth Park  Race 9 – The Long Branch ($175k) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:50 ET)

  • #5 Papa Clem (2/1)
  • #2 Atomic Rain (3/1)
  • #3 Despite the Odds (7/2)

I’ll be honest, the entire reason I’m covering this race is because I’m very excited to see Papa Clem get back into the ring.  This was a horse I was very excited about going into the Triple Crown season this year, and while the best he managed to accomplish was 4th in the Kentucky Derby, I’m still left thinking that he might have a decent future ahead of him.  He’s been off since the Preakness, where he disappointed in finishing a distant 6th, but he won’t have to deal with anyone like Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird in this field.  This race appears to setup well for him, and trainer Gary Stute may have found the right spot to get him back to his winning ways like we saw in the Arkansas Derby against Old Fashioned and eventual Belmont champion Summer Bird back in April.

Atomic Rain is another interesting runner, as the pace for this race might setup well for him as well.  It goes without saying that I’ve got something of a soft spot for Smart Strike colts, and he’s certainly working his tail off in preparation for this effort.  I’d give this guy a big shot to steal the race here.  One last factor to keep in mind is that basically all of this horse’s better efforts have come over the main track at Monmouth.  He certainly likes the surroundings here.  Give him a long look in the post parade and consider teeing up if the odds are right.

Looking over the rest of the field, Despite the Odds is a rather aptly named runner, as he’ll likely take a decent amount of action at the windows.  Despite his name (I had to use “despite” somewhere in this text without typing his name), the odds probably won’t be right for a runner that seems to do best when alone on the lead.  He’s also a Speightstown colt, which to me suggests that the distance may be a concern, but he seems game enough to be a logical exotics contender.  It’s kind of hard to be too harsh on a runner that is 3 for 4 lifetime.  I just don’t think he can win this race is all I’m saying.

 

Calder Race 10 – The Smile Sprint Handicap (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (4:55 ET)

  • #4 Benny the Bull (6/5*)
  • #2 How’s Your Halo (4/1)
  • #6 Yesbyjimminy (4/1)

It’s Benny the Bull time!  By far one of my favorite sprinters in the world, the son of Lucky Lionel returns from a game 2nd effort to a very talented Fabulous Strike in the True North Handicap on June 6.  That race was his first in nearly a year following an injury that sidelined him following a victory at Calder last July.  Now he returns to the scene of the crime and looks to get back on the winning path.  The race sets up very well for him, and trainer Rick Dutrow seems to be anticipating a victory for Benny.  Something must be amiss in the world if Dutrow and I see eye-to-eye over something, but that’s definitely what appears to be happening here.  I’m going all in on Benny and will likely single him in the Pick 4 at Calder.

How’s Your Halo makes the most sense to me if you’re trying to upset the heavy favorite.  He’s proven at the distance and fares fairly well over the Calder main track.  Even better, he seems to be in fairly sharp recent form. 

Yesbymimminy needs to find some of that past magic that led to 7 straight victories at one point last year.  It looks like an awkward start doomed him in his last effort, but perhaps with a clean break he can turn the tables on How’s Your Halo? 

 

Arlington Park Race 12 – The Arlington Handicap (Grade 3) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:40 CT)

  • #12 Cosmonaut (3/1)
  • #9 Just as Well (5/1)
  • #2 Public Speaker (20/1

We head to the midwest for the 74th running of the Arlington Handicap, and this one looks like it could be the biggest race of the day (despite the Grade 3 status).  Cosmonaut looks like the class of the field on paper.  The 7 year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid is a runner I’ve been fond of playing over the years, even if the wins have been a bit thin.  He’s been averaging about a victory per year lately, which would suggest he’s already had his moment in the sun this year by virtue of having prevailed at Belmont back in May.  I like that he’s dropping back down to the G3 level, as the upper stakes levels may be just a tad too much for him these days.  All one need to do to appreciate what he’s been up against is look through his recent running lines.  Names like Gio Ponti, Kip Deville, and Thorn Song feature quite prominently.  Needless to say, I feel any of those runners would be logical selections if entered here.  He’ll be involved in the pace, and with the exception of the Mott runner drawn to his immediate outside and the Rebecca Maker runner breaking from the 2 hole, could have things his way.  Look for a big performance on Saturday.

Just as Well is a horse that should be moving well late.  Note that last out in the Dixie he was just behind Parading, a horse we’ll hear more about in the next race we cover at Hollywood. Personally, I thought the Dixie was a fairly stacked race on the Preakness undercard, and Just as Well ran very, shall we say, well.  Man, I obviously need to get a Thesaurus to look for some usable synonyms.  Note that he’s also ran gamely against Kip Deville, and finished ahead of Court Vision in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap back in February.  The son of A.P. Indy looms a very serious threat.

Stream Cat is another horse that makes some sense here, but I had to side against him as I just wasn’t enthralled with his past efforts.  They were okay, but I’m looking elsewhere…which led me to Public Speaker.  The son of Distorted Humor has obviously never faced the level of competition he’ll see today, but I love that he’s 5 for 9 lifetime.  He would’ve had a close 2nd to go along with that but was disqualified and placed 4th two back in the Tin Man here at Arlington.  I’m going to take a shot on this guy’s recent form and expect a minor award here in the Arlington Handicap.  The odds should be worth such a play.  Again, I’m not suggesting he’s a likely win candidate, but he makes plenty of sense underneath. 

 

Hollywood Park Race 8 – The TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (4:30 PT)

  • #5 Parading (4/1)
  • #6 Dakota Phone (6/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)

We wind up the day with the 70th running of the Hollywood Gold Cup.  It’s sort of a somber moment as it appears likely that Hollywood Park’s days are officially numbered now.  I’m not going to spend much time on that except to say that the idea of bulldozing Hollywood and turning it into yet another of the ubiquitous “strip malls” that dot our countryside during this, the “great recession” makes about as much sense as my picks for a maiden level turf sprint race -  in other words, not a whole helluva lot of sense. 

I’m going with Parading here, despite being a lukewarm favorite at 4/1 and doing the east-to-west coast thing that I seldom seem fond of.  Basically it all comes down to how fond I was of the son-of-Pulpit’s effort in the Dixie.  I know, I know…I’m a sucker for horses that I’ve seen in person.  Perhaps it’s the familiarity aspect of it all.  However, even if i disconnect myself from that experience, he still winds up as my top selection.  The obvious “concern” will be how he handles the synthetic surface at Hollywood, but if it’s any indication (and these things are seldom apples-to-apples), he does have an impressive victory at the G2 level at Keeneland. Further, and not to try and stoke the flames of this argument again, but he is a fairly accomplished turf runner.  Just take that into consideration is all I’m saying. 

Dakota Phone and Song of Navarrone were a bit tough to seperate, and to be honest I’ve got them ranked fairly close to one another along with Bullsbay and Rail Trip.  I thought both ‘Dakota and ‘Navarone would be moving well late, and it looks like this race will come down to the final sixteenth or so to decide. 

Regarding Bullsbay – Yes, I picked him as an upset shot in the Stephen Foster and he totally burned me.  Some might not think losing by a length in a quarter was being “burned” – but c’mon…he finished behind Einstein?  How on earth was that even possible given the run that Einy had?  Still, we’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Kevin warns perpetually of the folly of discounting Tiznow offspring at long odds, then he goes and discounts one himself and….voila – huge upset victory.  Just to play it safe, I made him 3rd choice.  I figure that’s a nice way to not totally discount him, but not put all my eggs in the Tiznow basket.  I don’t know….it made sense to me at 10PM Friday night as I wrote this, so work with it people!  :-)

Best of luck to all!


Comments : 4 Comments »
Tags: , , , ,
Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Benny the Bull, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Papa Clem, TBA

Independence Day Selections

3 07 2009

“Saturday in the park. I think it was the 4th of July.”

As we take time to remember the birth of the nation this weekend with our July 4 festivities, we’ll also be treated to some quality racing action by virtue of the holiday having landed on a Saturday.  What better way to celebrate the triumph of our colonial forces over tyrannical British rule, or the victory won at Gettysburg by Federal forces over Lee’s infamous Army of Northern Virginia than by taking in some racing action while you sit back and relax in your favorite chair?  No doubt some fireworks will be in store later in the evening as dusk approaches.  Might we also witness some fireworks on the race track earlier in the day?  We’ll take a look at some of the major action going on at Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Hollywood Park.

We’ll kick things off in Belmont by looking at the late Pick 4, which begins with the 8th race of the afternoon.  We managed to nail a Pick 4 last week at Belmont, as the Beatles might say “with a little help from our friends.”  We’ll see if this week can bear similar results.

Belmont Race 8 – The Dwyer (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:44 ET)

  • #1 Warrior’s Reward (9/5*)
  • #5 American Dance (8/1)
  • #2 Convocation (5/1)

Only 7 runners are entered for the 92nd running of The Dwyer, but it’s a very interesting race nonetheless.  Most of the attention will rightly be focused on morning line favorite, Warrior’s Reward.  The son of white-hot sire Medaglia d’Oro just missed in the Northern Dancer on 6/13 and has turned in a sharp bullet workout on 6/29 while looking to make amends in the ever crucial 3rd start of his current form cycle.  He’s the one you’ve got to beat to score.

Looking over the rest of the field, #5 American Dance makes quite a bit of sense to me at very generous odds of 8/1.  The son of A.P. Indy has knocked heads with the likes of Dunkirk, Warrior’s Reward, Old Fashioned, and Imperial Council in his young career – fairly good company if you ask me.  He was no match for the favorite last February when the running line denotes that he “faltered.”  If you draw a line through that race, the Todd Pletcher trainee seems to be improving nicely.  At 8/1 it won’t take much for him to be worth of a spot play, and if nothing else he’s a nice horse to consider using underneath in the exotics.

Convocation is another improving runner, this time a son of Pulpit, who took 4 tries to break his maiden.  Trainer James Jerkens seems to have him coming into form nicely and he reunites with jockey Alan Garcia, who rode him in his debut.  It is interesting to note that he was steadied and “boxed in” when losing to Top It two races a back, a horse that was soundly defeated by another of today’s rivals (#4 Masala).  I’m assuming that if not for that trip trouble, Convocation would’ve defeated Top It as well.  Just a hunch.

Obviously then, I’m taking a stand against the 2nd choice on the line, #6 Just Ben (2/1) for all but the bottom of exotic wagers.  My thinking is that being a Speightstown colt, he’s probably better suited for the shorter sprint distances that he’s run effectively at thus far.  I’m not sure a mile and a sixteenth is his game. 

 

Belmont Race 9 – The Prioress (G1) – 6 Furlongs (5:16 ET)

  • #6 Gabby’s Golden Gal (7/2)
  • #1 Cat Moves/ #1A Light Green (3/1)
  • #8 On the Menu (6/1)

We move into Grade 1 territory for the 62nd running of The Prioress.  This is a very interesting 3-year-old filly race.  One wonders how small this field might’ve turned out if Rachel Alexandra had decided to run here instead of the Mother Goose?  Lucky for these guys, there is no Rachel today.  That being said, they will have their own talented daughter of Medaglia d”Oro to deal with in #6 Gabby’s Golden Gal.  You might remember Gabby from Belmont Stakes day this year, as she got a bit overheated following her dominating victory in the Acorn.  She looked like an absolute beast that day, and has been training like an absolute beast ever since (two bullet workouts on 6/20 and 6/28).  Looking over the competition arrayed against her today, she might well have to be a beast to prevail in the Prioress.  I say this because she’s cutting back drastically to the 6 furlong distance, which might not be her best game.  Additionally, she seems a speedy type, and this race is not without others who will have designs on the lead in the early going.   I’d spread a bit here in the Pick 4 is all I’m saying.

The coupled entry of #1 Cat Moves and #1 Light Green forms an interesting duo for owner Edward Evans and trainers Tony Dutrow (Cat Moves) and Todd Pletcher (Light Green). Light Green is the faster of the two and the most likely to be involved in the pace setup that should also involve Gabby’s Golden Gal and Selva.  Cat Moves is an improving but lightly raced daughter of Tale of the Cat who is not without some speed of her own.  It’ll be interesting to see how this race sets up for each of them.

Don’t forget about trainer Larry Jones, who is sitting in a sneaky position on the outside with #8 On the Menu.  This will obviously be a step up in class for the daughter of Canadian Frontier, but the race may come together nicely for her if she can secure a good stalking position just behind the expected pace. I think this horse has a better shot of hitting the board than others with lower odds on the morning line, including #7 Selva (5/1) and #3 Heart Ashley (4/1), who was all out despite an easy lead to hold off the late charging Cinderella’s Wish in the Miss Preakness back in May.   I remember Heart Ashley being a very fine looking filly though, so I will be checking her out in the post parade to try and make a final evaluation.

 

Belmont Race 10 – The Suburban Handicap (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:49 ET)

  • #3 It’s a Bird (2/1*)
  • #4 Asiatic Boy (5/2)
  • #1 Finallymadeit (20/1)

 We drop back down to the Grade 2 level and stretch back out to a route of ground for the 123rd running of the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap.  This race came up very strong on paper and is perhaps the most difficult to separate of the entire Pick 4 sequence.  I wound up on the chalk, #3 It’s a Bird, for top honors nonetheless.  Back to back 107 Beyer figures and 3 victories in your last 4 races tends to make a runner stick out.   Having proven victories at distances ranging from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles, I’m not worried about the distance of The Suburban.  He should be in a great spot to receive a strong stalking trip and then look to make his move as the field enters the turn. 

Asiatic Boy is the x-factor of the race, as he returns on short rest from his battle with Einstein for Place honors behind Macho Again in the Stephen Foster (G1) on 6/13.  He’s probably best known as the horse that ran 2nd to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup.  He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when dusted by Well Armed in the 2009 edition, but then bounced back with a big effort in the Stephen Foster. I’m not sure where to rank this horse as he seems to be a hit or miss type.  I’ll give him a shot like It’s a Bird to sit a nice stalking trip as his past performance lines are filled with comments that begin “tracked” or “rated.” 

A longshot that really intrigues me here is #1 Finallymadeit.  It’s rather hard to believe that we can get anything like 20/1 on a horse like this.  He’s won 16 races lifetime, including 2 this year, for a grand total of over $900,000 in earnings.  Perhaps more impressively, if you like It’s a Bird in this race, do note that Finallymadeit defeated him last November.  He’s probably running into an unfavorable pace setup, as #10 Samhoon and #8 Cool Coal Man figure to be looking for the lead early on as well, but certainly he’s worth factoring into the exotics at least at such odds. 

I also wouldn’t totally sleep on #2 Dry Martini as well.  He’s a notch below the others, but might be the one that benefits the most from the pace setup. 

In the final leg of the Pick 4 (Race 11 – a $44k Maiden Special Weight), I think you can reduce the field down to #1 Wild Entry,  #1A Grassy, and #7 Tawaared.

 

Belmont Late Pick 4 Ticket ($48)

1,5/ 1,6,8/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,7

 

Monmouth Park – Race 10 – The United  Nations (G1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (5:20 ET)

  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #1 Banrock (6/1)
  • #5 Court Vision (3/1)

We move to Monmouth Park in New Jersey for their feature race of the afternoon, the 56th running of the United Nations (G1) going 1 3/8 miles over the turf course.  Very difficult race to decipher.  I thought the pace setup might favor Presious Passion getting to the lead, and if so he may be very difficult to take down.  This is the kind of runner you’ve got to respect, with 3 wins in his last 5 races (all of them finishes in the exacta).  All things considered, 9/2 is fairly generous value for a runner like this, although I don’t think he’ll be that high come post time (I’m thinking more like 3/1?). 

I wouldn’t sleep on Banrock though either, as this runner almost nailed Presious Passion in the Monmouth Stakes.  He should be right there at the end as well.   Another small move forward and he’s a likely candidate for win honors. 

Court Vision will be a popular selection based on name recognition, but we simply don’t know if the distance will be to his liking.  I expect a game effort, just didn’t see enough to pull the trigger and make him the top selection.  I could imagine him having his work cut out for him as he tries to close into Presious Passion’s lead late in the stretch. 

Better Talk Now is a horse that regular readers know I always cover.  He’s simply one of my favorite  horses in the world.  The legendary “black beast” and former turf champion.  I thought he looked excellent running on gamely for show in the Manhattan Handicap (G1) on Belmont Stakes day.  Similar to Court Vision, the pace scenario doesn’t exactly flatter his chances as a late closing type.  In the end I just trust “blackie’s” heart and soul a bit more than many of the other runners.

Another guy I was trying to find a way to make a case for is Wesley.  One of these days, this horse is going to bust out and run a career defining race.  It’s just hard to imagine it being this Saturday. If, however, he looks good in the post parade, I might just be tempted enough to take a flyer on him.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The American Handicap (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

  • #5 Whatsthescript (8/5)
  • #2 Storm Military (5/1)
  • #4 Monterey Jazz (5/2)

We’ll keep things simple here as we wind up with the 70th running of the American Handicap (G2) at Hollywood.  Only 6 horses are signed on here, and #5 Whatsthescript appears to be the obvious horse to beat.  Storm Military and Monterey Jazz will likely be the leaders in the early going, and Whatsthescript will be trying to close into whatever those two produce.  It’s important to note that Monterey Jazz did defeat Whatsthescript back in December 0f 2007, but I simply feel Whatsthescript is a much better horse at this point in his career.

So there you have it.  Make sure you enjoy your holiday weekend and hopefully by the time we’re through here you are saddling up to witness a kick ass fireworks display with a few extra dollars in your pocket.  Happy 4th of July everyone!


Comments : 17 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News

A Saturday to remember

28 06 2009

What a Saturday we’ve just witnessed!  Where on earth shall I even begin?  As many of you know, this weekend we loaded up the family and completed a roughly 500 mile round trip journey to witness Rachel Alexandra’s return to racing in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.  Ostensibly, the trip was a birthday present for my wife, who has grown quite attached to Rachel since watching her romp in the Kentucky Oaks in early May.  I use the term ostensibly here because, let’s be honest, you don’t have to twist my arm to get me to the track. 

With that in mind, we loaded up the family and rolled into New York city at roughly 1 Am Saturday morning.  Reveille was bright and early so that we could rise with time to do some morning handicapping, take in breakfast, and head out to Belmont for the day’s events.  Little did we know what we were in for.

At first glance, the prospects for the day seemed rather bleak.  As the scratches and changes for the day’s card were announced, it became clear that Rachel would be facing only two other horses in the Mother Goose.  Presumably (and forgive me if I’m mistaken here as with 500+ miles logged in the last 36 hours, suffice to say there hasn’t been a good deal of time available for fact checking) the Preakness champion had scared away most of her competition.  Eyebrows were raised that the race was even being run, but then again, given the healthy crowd on hand (which from my vantage point seemed quite larger than Curlin drew for his turf debut in the Man O’ War last summer)  that was largely there just to see Rachel- it seemed the correct decision to leave the race on the card.

Then, Rachel made her appearance.  I believe my “tweet“ at the time was something to the effect of “My god, just look at her!”  As unbelievably good as she appeared on Preakness day last month, she looked even better on Saturday.  I didn’t think that was humanly (equinely) possible, but somehow she looked bigger, stronger, and more majestic.  I blurted out “you guys are braver than me!”  to the jockeys aboard her competitors, and then sprinted back to our seats near the finish line to watch the race unfold.

Rachel Alexandra heading to post in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park - 6/27/09

After witnessing Rachel’s absolutely dominating performance, I think it’s safe to say that’s the last time 3-year-old fillies will be willing to take her on.  Seriously…it should probably be illegal.  They simply stand no chance against her.  Then again, beyond a late run from Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness, neither did the 3-year-old boys.  

 

 

Now, in all fairness her competitors helped her out a bit by running insanely fast early on.  Malibu Prayer and Flashing set  ”suicide fractions”  of :22.57 and :44.66 to open the race, but Rachel was every bit as good as advertised when asked for her run.  She simply inhaled her rivals once she made her move and then busted loose in jailbreak fashion to open up a 19 1/4 length victory in a stakes record time for the 1 1/8 mile race of 1:46.33.   

And you know what?  Watching her run, she could’ve gone faster if either her or jockey Calvin Borel had wanted to do so.   But why waste too much energy today when their are bigger and better things on the horizon?

Uh-oh…here comes that nasty debate again. 

You can’t mention Rachel’s future without two topics coming up right away;  The Breeders’ Cup and a potential showdown with Zenyatta.  For now, both remain unlikely as owner Jess Jackson maintains that Rachel will not run on the “plastics” under any circumstances.   Instead, races such as the Travers and the Haskell seem likely targets for her next effort. 

Speaking of Zenyatta, “slow cheetah” was not to be outdone, running fantastically as well.  In typical Zenyatta style she made it all look easy in whipping her 11th consecutive field to take the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. 

 

 

It might not have looked as sexy as Rachel’s victory, but Zenyatta was carrying a daunting 129 pounds.   That’s no small task.  You won’t see a runner breaking track records carrying that kind of weight.  The important thing to note was that it still looked effortless for her.  Even with all that weight on her back  it still looks like she’s just toying with the competition.  What a beast!

Just as the other 3-year-old fillies seem powerless to stop Rachel, the older fillies and mares seem utterly incapable of stopping Zenyatta (“you cannot stop her, you can only hope to contain her!”)

Clearly, these two runners are the best in the business at the moment, and the horse racing world waits with baited breath wishing, hoping, and praying that somehow, someday we’ll see them face each other. 

About that potential Zenyatta/Rachel matchup that will continue to be the elephant in the room all year…a thought struck me on the way home that I just couldn’t shake.  Think on this for a moment, if you will.

Should we be pushing for a matchup between these two? 

Is our sport really not big enough at the moment for the greatness of each? 

We don’t exactly have a very deep pool of greatness to choose from.  I think it’s worth remembering that if/when they do meet up, that one of them would have to lose.  I guess at some level, in my heart of hearts, I don’t really want either of them to go through that.   True, Rachel’s doesn’t have the whole “undefeated” mystique that Zenyatta does, but she’s certainly on a roll that I’d hate to see stop.  Likewise, it would be incredibly special if Zenyatta could finish her career undefeated. 

I guess I can dream for now that if it ever does takes place, the two hit the wire in a dead heat.  That’s the way I’d write this story if it were my book.  Two valiant competitors, each with their own breathtaking style – giving one another all they can handle.  An agonizing photo finish.  And in the end, victory for each.   Oh well…a guy can dream can’t he? 

I’ll end on this note.  You guys know how strong my love of Curlin remains to this day.  Check this out and tell me I don’t have the best wife in the world?  Somehow she managed to obtain both Jess Jackson’s and Steve Asmussen’s autographs as they prepared to send Rachel to post.  When she first considered even bringing the hat, I tried to tell her that she’d never get the chance and that to even try was folly.  Good thing she didn’t listen to my advice!   As if that weren’t enough, thanks to a discussion with another Rachel fan from our Facebook fanclub, we managed to use Big Jerome in the 2nd leg of the late Pick 4 (Lisa, if you’re reading this – I’m talking about you, buddy!  Great call!).  That choice coupled with the timely disqualification of a runner in the final leg of the sequence led to a nice Pick 4 score that ended the day on an even higher note than had already been achieved.

Curlin hat autographed by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen 

So yes, apparently a guy can dream…and sometimes those dreams come true!  :)


Comments : 7 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

20 06 2009

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature.  This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park.  Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes.  Along those lines,  Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out.  So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!” 

The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card.   That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6.  Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance.  The more the merrier!  Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us. 

Enough about that for now though.  Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
  • #1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
  • #3 Gray Suitor (4/1)

We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes  in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs.  This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds.  Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper.  The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today.  Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level.   Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field.  This one looked pretty obvious to me on top. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 7 -  The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET

1 1/8 Miles

  • #7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
  • #3 All Night Labor (10/1)
  • #8 Skylighter (3/1)

Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here.  She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before.  If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price. 

All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good.  Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races. 

Skylighter is very interesting from the outside.  I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means.  Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount.  You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he? 

 

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET

5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
  • #13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
  • #11 Excessive Heat (15/1)

Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection.  I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events.  That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race.  Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well. 

Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision.  The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl  ($125k)- 4:51 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
  • #5 Cat Moves (8/1)
  • #1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)

Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl.  I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races.  In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.  

Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle.  The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance. 

Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET

1 1/4 Miles - Turf

  • #6 Dynaforce (3/1)
  • #3 Criticism (5/2*)
  • #4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)

We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York.  No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week.  The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?  

First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much.  Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more.  Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year.  She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch. 

Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well.  If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be  potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of  the softer footing underneath her hooves.

Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today.  I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?

 

Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET

1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
  • #7 Indescribable (7/2)
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)

Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the  Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend.  That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie.  This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort.  She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here.  In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price.  As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith. 

Indescribable is another interesting runner here.  Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good.  Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way. 

I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
  • #8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (7/2)

The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners.  Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here.   Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today.  My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April?  My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft?  Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness). 

Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use.  I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names.  Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army.  William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.”  As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance. 

Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  I suspect he’ll run big here as well.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9  – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #2 Grazen (2/1*)
  • #3 Cape Truth (7/2)
  • #1 Misremembered (4/1)

We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16  miles over the main cushion track.  I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3.  The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground.  Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score. 

Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out.  He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill. 

Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert.  This is a small, yet competitive field.

 

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.


Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra

« Previous Entries


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.