Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing.  On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation. 

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission.  From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast),  major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4:  The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

  • #3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
  • #1A Music Note (2/5*)
  • #1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track.  Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter.  From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry.  That’s real fair.  Thanks.  You know what?  I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done. 

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth?  Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling.  Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee.  The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5  selections.  Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

 

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

  • #2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
  • #11 On the Menu (9/2)
  • #10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race.  As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here.  Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is. 

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly.  She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley.  Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice.  As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field.  With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire.  It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short.  From where I sat it looked  a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley.  She’s my pick of the day.  Lock and load.   Go get ‘em, baby girl! 

 #11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so.  Either one could run big today.  I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed.  This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9:  The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

  • #1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this?  I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes?  Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation.  Nothing is as it seems.  I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time.  While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer. 

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further.  It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance.  He’ll be tough though.  That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him.  He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort.  I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks.  I’ll hop aboard again this weekend. 

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid.  His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner.  Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops.  If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.  

 

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (10/1)
  • #3 Einstein (2/1*)
  • #5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein.  The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface.  I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here. 

He won’t get away with it easy, however.  Two rivals in particular look very intriguing.  Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line.  That’s absolute theft for a  gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January).  I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about.  They’re always fighters.  Plus, look at the connections.  It’s Graham Motion!  One of my favorite trainers.  That’s too much for me.  A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite?  I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay.  Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town.  The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price. 

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET).  He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old.  Enough said.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

  • #4 Aitcho (8/1)
  • #3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
  • #6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.   Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race.  Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone.  This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics.  Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking. 

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level.  Is this an acid test?  Sure.  Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field?  Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at  8/1 he offers value on the tote board.  Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse.  Looks like a fine colt to me. 

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone.  He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away.  But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park.  You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle.  Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there.  I’m just sayin’.  Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend.  Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday.  ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.


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Zenyatta wins the Milady; remains unbeaten in 10 starts

23 05 2009

Let the debate begin!  It’s not like we didn’t have a debate already brewing behind the scenes regarding thoroughbred racing’s top ladies, but with her ultra impressive victory in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday, the undefeated Zenyatta said “not so fast” to any would be challengers in her quest for a Horse of the Year title.  The win sets up the potential for an eventual showdown between the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry and Preakness champion Rachel Alexandra in one of the Breeders’ Cup Classic races this fall.   Only time will tell if that will be a Friday or a Saturday showdown. 

Breaking towards the rear of the pack, Zenyatta and stable mate Life Is Sweet spotted the field double digit lengths in the early going, and then set down for their runs with about 3 furlongs to go.   Garrett Gomez, aboard Life Is Sweet, did everything in his power to prevent the eventual overpowering stretch run of Zenyatta, causing her to check momentarily.  Nothing could stop Zenyatta though as in true “Slow Cheetah” style she circled wide, perked her ears, and then inhaled the field.

Zenyatta returned $2.40 for the win, her 8th in graded stakes company.  Life Is Sweet ran on gamely for 2nd, and if not for the presence of Zenyatta would have prevailed.  Allicansayis Wow ran on for 3rd, making my pre-race selections 1,2,3 finishers.  Unfortunately their was no value to be had, as the Trifecta returned a paltry $13.20. 

Today was not about value from a betting standpoint though.  Today was about star power and what it can do for the sport.  If you haven’t noticed, we’re a bit thin in terms of superstars in this sport at the moment.   It’s a bit hard to detect thanks to the publicity that the Triple Crown receives, and the instant celebrity status awarded both Rachel and Mine That Bird for their victories in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.   Beyond them though, who do we have?  Einstein is versatile enough that he’s probably the top older male in the nation (on any surface, it would seem).  Perhaps Well Armed will return in top form from his massive victory in the Dubai World Cup back in March.  We do have some star power in Forever Together in the turf female division, but how many folks outside of diehard horse racing fans have ever really heard of her?  All that we are, for the moment at least, hinges on the success of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, and Mine That Bird. 

What a matchup we might get this fall if their worlds do collide?   Rachel running from the 1st step out in front early on.  Zenyatta biding her time and then setting down for her run in the turn. Personally, I think Zenyatta would have distinct advantage if the desired showdown were to occur on Breeders’ Cup weekend.   While she’s proven in the past that she doesn’t need to be in California to win, clearly it’s where she’s at her most comfortable.  Things might be more evenly matched if the two were to meet on a true dirt surface, say in Saratoga this summer.  I doubt that will happen though, as Zenyatta’s connections may feel there’s no need to ship her across the country to prove anything.   She can stay where she is, win the Classic, and waltz away with Horse of the Year honors. 

For Rachel, the path is more difficult.  First and foremost, she has a potential rematch with Mine That Bird looming in the Belmont, if Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen decide to send her.  Then she must prove she has something in the tank after the Triple Crown races when she eventually squares off against older runners.  Then the decision will have to come as to whether to ship her for the Ladies’ Classic on Friday, or the main attraction on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

Of course, while we’re debating these fillies, let’s not loose sight of Mine That Bird, who has a tendency to jump up and bite those that count him out of the equation.   How silly might we look later in the year if we’ve wasted months arguing about Rachel and Zenyatta, only to get “Birdstoned” again in the Classic?  It could happen, I’m just sayin’.  Let’s not get too carried away with the Rachel vs. Zenyatta debate. 

One thing is certain, it’s an exciting time to be a racing fan.  We’re blessed with two of the most talented female runners in recent memory.   These are our two superstars.   Here’s hoping they each continue to progress, and that one day we might be lucky enough to witness them in direct competition with one another in a race for the ages. 

For now, hats off to Zenyatta, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Michael E. Smith, who rode one of his signature races in timing when to launch his runner nearing the stretch of the Milady.  What a magnificent creature Zenyatta is to behold.  Clearly one of a kind.  She’s one of those horses you feel lucky just being able to watch.  Well done, Slow Cheetah!


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Zenyatta’s return; Undefeated mare favored in the Milady Handicap

22 05 2009

One good lady deserves another. It’s only fitting and proper.  Of course,in the cases of the phenoms that are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, “good” is a rather modest choice of words, but I’ll trust the expression is not lost upon the reader.  After witnessing history with Rachel Alexandra’s triumph in the Preakness last weekend, we return this weekend with the undefeated Zenyatta, or as I like to call her “Slow Cheetah“,  making her 2009 debut in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.  If things hold up, these two ladies might be on a collision course for Breeders’ Cup weekend this October, and when all is said and done they might have a Horse of the Year title on the line between them.  For now though, each runner has more immediate challenges to concern themselves with.

It’s been over half a year since we’ve seen the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry rolling to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last October at Santa Anita.   This weekend she’ll put her undefeated record on the line against fellow stablemate Life Is Sweet, who is exiting 3 consecutive graded stakes victories of her own and clearly in top form.  You can see the story lines running through this race already.  Life Is Sweet comes into the race in peak condition.  Zenyatta comes off the shelf after a sustained layoff.  If they both run to their previous class (and there’s no reason to suspect they’ll do otherwise) It looks very much like the Milady will turn into a two horse affair.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Gambler’s Justice (M. Garcia/ B. Spawr) 20/1
  • #2 Taste’s Sis (D. Sorenson/M. Polanco) 30/1
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (J. Talamo/ P. Biancone) 20/1
  • #4 Dawn After Dawn (J. Rosario/ J. Sadler) 10/1
  • #5 Champagne Eyes (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 8/1
  • #6 Bel Air Sizzle (R. Bejarano/ B. Abrams) 20/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (G. Gomez/ J. Shirreffs) 5/2
  • #8 Hot n’ Dusty (A. Solis/ B. Abrams) 50/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #9 Zenyatta (M.Smith/ J. Shirreffs) 3/5*

Before Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta can make it a two horse race, however, they’ll need to wear down the early speed.  Luckily for them, it appears on paper that ample speed has signed on here to suit their respective closing styles.  #1 Gambler’s Justice along the rail and #2 Taste’s Sis both appear to be speedy types that should be forwardly placed earlier on.   #5 Champagne Eyes is also likely to be a part of the pace, although she may attempt to press from just behind the rail runner.  #4 Dawn After Dawn should be stalking early on in about 3rd or 4th position, anywhere from 2-4 lengths behind the early pace. 

As the field begins to turn into the stretch, the real race should begin, and it may well come down to who gets first jump between Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to give Zenyatta the slight edge here, despite the long layoff.  We’ve simply never seen a situation that she can’t overcome.  She’s thrived at Hollywood Park ever since breaking her maiden there on a Thursday night in November of 2007.   Moreover, she’s a perfect 6 for 6 at the 1 1/16 mile distance, which appears to be her comfort zone.  Admittedly, she’s perfect at everything she’s attempted thus far, so that last bit might not seem to matter much at first glance, but if this race were being run at either a shorter 1 mile distance or a longer 1 1/8 mile distance then perhaps there would be reason to suspect some vulnerability.  Conversely, it’s debatable whether 1 1/16 miles is the preferred distance for Life Is Sweet.  Surely she can clearly score at that distance, but she might be a better runner at 1 1/8 miles.

I’ll play Zenyatta on top, even though she’ll be a huge favorite.  Underneath I’ll use Life Is Sweet, who I think will make it very close but most likely come up just short at the wire.   With the two Barry Abrams runners (#6 Bel Air Sizzle and #8 Hot n’ Dusty) likely to scratch, I’ll focus underneath on the longshot #3 Allicansayis Wow, who managed to prevail last out against optional claimers despite clipping heels in the stretch. I’d expect a much improved effort this time out in only her 2nd start in the U.S.  I’ll also toss in Champagne Eyes, Dawn After Dawn, and the rail runner Gambler’s Justice (just in case she holds on for a slice). 

I’m keeping the ticket on the cheap side here, but if you feel confident with a particular combination it might be a good idea to hammer it through the betting windows 10 to 20 times, as the straight exacta is not likely to return much of a payout.

Selections:

  • #9  Zenyatta (3/5*)
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (5/2)
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (20/1)

$1 Trifecta  9/7/1,3,4,5 =$4

Best of luck to everyone, and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.


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Vacare goes out in style with win in the Dhalia

22 12 2008

Vacare, a 5-year-old daughter of Lear Fan, put the finishing touch on her stellar career by winning her 8th race in 14 lifetime tries Sunday in the Grade 2 Dahlia Handicap at Hollywood Park.  The win marked her final trip to the race track as it was announced after the race that she would be retired and not brought back for a 6-year-old campaign.

Vacare was sent off as the post time favorite and saved ground through much of the trip while In My Glory got out to a quick start from the 11 hole.  Gotta Have Her was also tracking In My Glory nicely in the early going.  As the field turned for home it looked for a moment like Vacare might need racing room, but jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. found a spot just to the outside and then sent her for her final drive to the wire. 

Once she dug in and made her bid for the wire, her class took over and she was clearly the best of the field.  The win improves her lifetime earnings to $1,213,706 for her career.  The win was also trainer Christophe Clement’s 1000th of his career.  Gotta Have Her and In My Glory finished 2nd and 3rd behind her. 

In an ironic twist of fate, the trainer of the horse the race was named for, Dahlia, passed away yesterday as well.  Maurice Zilber, age 88, passed away from complications with cancer on Sunday.

With the running of the Dahlia, the curtain has closed on Hollywood Park’s winter fall/winter meet.  How many times that curtain will rise again is anyone’s guess.  Like every track across the country, handle and attendance were down – most likely as signs of a struggling economy continue to show themselves in every aspect of life.  Hollywood itself is on a tenuous plan to be demolished and turned into a real estate development project.  As of right now there is another meet scheduled that begins in April of 2009.  Beyond 2009 still remains a big mystery for many.


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Dahlia could be a shocker

21 12 2008

Anyone who witnessed the exciting finish to the CashCall Futurity yesterday at Hollywood is no doubt pumped about having another big stakes race to view this afternoon in the 26th running of the Grade 2 Dahlia Handicap.  The field turned up rather interesting, with some big name horses leading the way and a competitive group of challengers looking to take them on.  From the rail out they set up like this:

  1. Vacare (Jose Valdivia/Christopher Clement) 5/2*
  2. Green Lyons (Joel Rosario/Neil Drysdale) 10/1
  3. I Can See (Aaron Gryder/Steve Knapp) 20/1
  4. Bella Allure (Corey Nakatani/Rupert Pritchard-Gordon) 5/1
  5. Place de L’Etoile – SCRATCHED
  6. Gotta Have Her (Richard Migliore/Jenine Sahadi) 8/1
  7. Sensational Love (M.C. Baze/Neil Drysdale) 20/1
  8. Valbenny (Alex Solid/Robert Frankel) 7/2
  9. Lady Digby (Garrett Gomez/Graham Motion) 9/2
  10. Don’t Forget Faith (Alonso Quinones/Clive Cox) 30/1
  11. In My Glory (Martin Garcia/Efrain Miranda) 15/1
  12. Storybook (Michael E. Smith/John Sadler) 15/1

Vacare is the post time favorite and looms the one to try and beat.  I’m not so certain it can be done, but she’ll be tested a bit today.  Vacare sports an impressive 3 for 4 lifetime record at the 1 1/16 mile distance and is cutting back today from two straight efforts at 1 1/4 miles. I think it’s clear she prefers anything in the one mile to 1 1/8 mile range.  Perhaps 1 1/4 was just a tad far for her.  She’s also exiting a 100 Beyer performance and is the clear class of the field with her cool $1.1 million in earnings.  As long as she’s ready to run today she should be very tough to take down.

Lady Digby comes in off a disappointing effort in the Cardinal at Churchill over wet conditions on 11/15.  Toss that effort and she clearly belongs with this group.  In fact, she’s even won an alternative version of a “Dahlia” at Laurel on 4/12. I like how she’s “classed up” against the likes of Forever Together, Dynaforce, Roshani, and Dreaming of Anna.  The only horse I see her having a hard time getting past is Vacare in the stretch, provided they are both on their A-game.

An interesting horse that may be overlooked by bettors is Bella Allure.  For one thing, she’s a 3-year-old European filly (and a chestnut to boot!), and if we’ve learned one thing this year it’s that you must respect them.   Look deeper though and peer through that running line of hers.  Any names jump out at you?  How about Zarkava and Goldikova?  True, she was beaten soundly by both, but she’ll not face the likes of those two today.  She doesn’t rate as my top choice on paper, but I respect the Euro-fillies enough to use her underneath in all positions on the exotics for the Dahlia.  Also, if she happens to make a good post parade impression, she could be a smart play.  We’ll see. If there’s going to be a “shocker”, as my title implies, why not this horse?  Don’t Forget Faith also faced the mighty Zarkava and finished 5th, but of these two I prefer Bella Allure.

In My Glory should be a part of whatever is going on up front early on in the race, although the outside post position will be somewhat compromising.  I’ll give her a chance to hang on for show.  I’m not really a big Valbenny guy, but I guess you’ve got to use her in this field.  Two other horses I think warrant trifecta/superfecta attention are I Can See and Gotta Have Her, piloted by veteran jockeys Aaron “the rider” Gryder and Richard “the migs” Migliore, respectively.

I’ll play Vacare on top for the Captain Obvious win.  I love the taste of chalk in the morning…tastes like…VICTORY!  :)

$1 Tri:  1/4,9/3,4,6,8,9,11 ($10)

Best of luck to all – be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.  And as many of you are picking up on wonderfully, be sure to check out the post parade on TVG!


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Pioneer of the Nile wins a thriller in the CashCall Futurity

20 12 2008

Pioneer of the Nile, a promising 2-year-old son of Empire Maker, held off a game challenge from I Want Revenge in a thrilling stretch duel to win the 2008 CashCall Futurity Stakes at Hollywood Park. 

Sent off as the post time favorite, Pioneer of the Nile tracked quick early fractions set by Frumious and Ventana to strike the front in the stretch.  I Want Revenge weaved through horses to come on strong in the stretch, drawing eyeball to eyeball with Pioneer of the Nile as they raced to the wire.  In the end, Pioneer of the Nile was able to turn away I Want Revenge by the slimmest of margins, prevailing by a head.

The win was so close that trainer Bob Baffert seemed uncertain at first on the TVG feed.  When it became official, the win marked a return to the winner’s circle with owner Ahmed Zayat, who had previously removed his horses from Baffert’s care in February. 

Baffert has now trained 4 CashCall winners, with Pioneer of the Nile joining previous winners Point Given (2000), Captain Steve (1998), and Real Quiet (1997).  Only time will tell if  Pioneer of the Nile joins the ranks of early Derby contenders being whispered on the lips of horseplayers across the nation.  It’s always going to be tough to decipher how a strong performance on synthetics will translate onto dirt (and for this I suggest everyone pick up a copy of Bill Finley’s wonderful “Betting Synthetic Surfaces“).

One thing is certain, at least for the California circuit, it would seem to be wise to pay attention to where the top 3 finishers of this race return; Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Chocolate Candy – as they were all moving well late and had the look of future winners about them.

If you got a chance to see it, that was exactly the kind of race that horse racing fans love.  It had everything. Quick early start, a gutty stretch battle between to fierce competitors…there’s really nothing else we could ask for. 

Here’s to a wonderful ride by Garrett Gomez on Pioneer of the Nile and an equally gutsy performance by I Want Revenge and jockey Joe Talamo.


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Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile look useful in the CashCall

20 12 2008

Once again I managed to do my best Hall and Oates impression yesterday, coming “so close, yet so far away” with my pick 4 selections.  As extemporaneous pointed out, it was the darn maiden claimers in the first leg that killed me at Hollywood yesterday, otherwise we had everything pretty much spot on.  Curses!!!!

Jumping back into the saddle today, let’s look at the feature from Hollywood this afternoon;  the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. The CashCall is obviously the headliner of the day, and will set things up nicely for another big race on Sunday with the running of the Grade 2 Dahlia.

Looking at the CashCall, probably the most well known name in the field is that of Azul Leon.  The son of Lion Heart became one of the more talked about 2-year-olds by winning the Hollywood Juvenile earlier this summer.  Since then though he’s struggled a bit. I didn’t think he classed up well with the better runners of his division in the Norfolk or the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He won’t face any of the absolute best, but I’m still going to play against him as I think his name recognition will result in an underlay at the betting windows.  He’s also something of an unproven commodity going two turns, so I’ll pass here and let him beat me if he can. 

Of course, passing on Azul Leon is the easy part…the hard part is figuring out who of the other runners might be around at the wire when the smoke clears.  I’ll say this, I think on paper we should get enough pace in this race to setup for someone coming from off the pace.  I  Want Revenge, Frumious, and Mr. Rod all look like runners who may try for the lead early on. That being said, I don’t think it will set up for a furious (not to be confused with “frumious”) early pace.  That leads me to look at the mid-pack/stalking types for the eventual winner. 

Azul Leon could definitely do it, as could any of the closers, but ultimately I think this one comes down to Chocolate Candy.  If he gets the trip he’s capable of, he should be able to get first jump on the pace setters and have a big shot at getting to the wire first.

I’d love to pick either Bittel Road or Mr. Rod in this field, but it’s tough not to downgrade them a bit due to their outside post positions and the potential pace presser other runners in here will apply.  All things being equal though, I do think either of these horses are capable of defeating this field.

Another runner to keep your eye on is Pioneer of the Nile, who ought to be moving well late.  In fact, I’d make Pioneer of the Nile my second choice here and would definitely advise covering this number if you are playing the pick 4  and/or pick 6 today. 

My straight up top picks would be Chocolate Candy/Pioneer of the Nile/Azul Leon/Bittel Road.  I highly doubt they finish in that order, but for what it’s worth, there it is.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

Friday Selections

19 12 2008

We’re almost to the holidays, and if you’re like me you are probably hurting a little bit in the wallet after crossing off all the items on the various Christmas lists you’ve been given.  We’ve got an unexpected day off today as we prepare for doctors visits surrounding the impending birth of our 2nd child, and I figured I’d go pick 4 chasing today hoping for some early holiday cheer.  I’ve got a late pick 4 at Hollywood for this afternoon and a pick 4 for Laurel earlier in the day that hinges on a single in the first leg.

Laurel Pick 4 (races 6-9):

4/1,4,5,6/8,9/1,2,6 ($24)

My Laurel pick 4 starts out with a “Captain Obvious” single in race 6 on #4 Italiano, who appears to be the lone speed of the field.  If he can kick clear of the rest of the group in the early going and settle down comfortably, he should be able to hang on.  Two dangers present themselves however.  Firstly, I”m sure the other jockeys see this and you never know who may decide to rain on your parade, and the fact that the 6th race is at the tricky 7 furlong distance.  The horses I’ll be fearing here as early ticket busters are New York Style, pressing the pace from down on the rail, and Kijabe, who looks dangerous here from a Beyer figure standpoint alone.

In the 7th race I counted numerous horses that could get the job done, so I spread deep andwent with my top four selections.  Pure Granit comes off 4 solid efforts for this level and sports a victory at the 7 furlong distance.  Monarch’s Mystery is a 3-year-old son of Monarchos shipping in from Philadelphia Park who looked somewhat dangerous to me as well.   He hasn’t matched up well with older horses yet in his career, but I think you’ve got to respect the shippers in this one.   That holds true for Out Kissin as well.  He’ll make his first appearance at Laurel in 13 lifetime races and has been working decently.   Indran is another who looks competitive here.  The only one I liked that I didn’t include on my ticket was the outside horse, Lord Willing, for famed trainer King Leatherbury.  Hopefully that won’t be a fatal mistake.

The 8th race to me was all about the two outside horses, Masala T andVirginia Minstrel.   Virginia Minstrel took a while to clear the Maiden Special Weight ranks, but has always shown a hint of talent.  He’s probably a better turf runner overall, but trainer Hamilton Smith has hit at 20% going from turf to dirt, so clearly he knows what he’s doing.  Add to that jockey Anna Napravnik staying on board (it’s great to see her back in action) and what’s not to like?   Masala T, like Virginia Minstrel, should be able to rally from off the pace in this one.  He’s coming off a sharp win and would appear to be in fine form based on 3 of his last 4 efforts.   I did like Max’s Bid and Pattysbuddy in here as well, but was concerned about what might happen up front early on with them, Jamaican Express, and Malibu Moon Coma.

We wind up the day at Laurel in race 9 with $10k maiden claimers going 1 mile over the main track.  I kept this one simple.  The two inside runners, Bungalow Babe and Shocking Development, look like the best fits to me.  both should be in good position right from the start and are cutting back slightly in distance from there last efforts.  With 3 races each under their belts, they ought to be able to put it all together against this field.  Since these are maidens, and anything that can happen will happen, I also tossed in Sky Clipper who is dropping in class for trainer Hamilton Smith.  As an interesting aside, a lady I work with is affiliated with #7 Here Comes Mikey - who I note is adding blinkers today.  I’ll probably have a side bet on him just for fun.

 

Hollywood Park Late Pick 4 (races 5 – 8):

2,3,6,7/4,6,8/2,6/3,11 ($48)

I’ve got no singles in my Hollywood Late Pick 4.  There just wasn’t anyone I felt that comfortable with.  The theme of this ticket is survival, andhopefully going 4 deep in the first leg gives me a chance to be around late when it counts.  In the opening turf sprint, I thought you had to respect Linda Lou, Lemon Punch, Waveline, and Schill.  Actually, this is a race you could conceivably hit “all.”  Schill is my top pick for trainer Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer.  Five solid efforts in a row merit that kind of respect.  Waveline I thought was very dangerous here and might get overlooked at the windows, although the presence of Bejarano all but kills any chance of that.   Linda Lou could be any type of horse.  She’s obviously moving up in class from the special weight ranks, but she’s got a chance in here.  Lemon Punch is the one I’m least expecting a big performance on.  If we  were going a longer distance I’d like her more, but I’m not sure 6 furlong sprints are her cup of tea, even though she does have a victory at this distance. 

In the 6th race we get maiden claimers sprinting over the main track.  Smokey Beau is my top choice here.  He’s dropping from the $80k level and has obviously faced tougher.  He just looks like a formidable force on paper against maiden claimers, although you do have to worry whenever a $115k purchase is being offered for $32k in just their 4th career race.  Ultimately I think that’ s just because he doesn’t have the talent to live up to his purchase price, but he’s probably got enough to beat these.  Convenient Memory is an interesting 2nd time starter for trainer Doug O’Niell.  The obvious attraction being at least partly to do with jockey Rafael Bejarano getting the call.  I also tossed in Cesium Fountain here and thought we may catch a price on this one.  Jeff Mullins runners in their 2nd time out are usually ready to improve on their debut efforts, and this one flashed speed as well – which means he’s likely to be a part of whatever is going on early in this race.  Can he hang on?  Who knows, but I respected his chances enough to include him.

The 7th race was a two horse race to me between Miss Singhsix and Carmel Coffee.  ’Coffee you might recall from Zenyatta’s debut win last November.  She’s really never run a bad race in her career and could be head and shoulders above this field by the time they hit the wire.  Miss Singhsix is a tough, consistent runner that I thought would be the beneficiary if somehow Carmel Coffee wasn’t the horse I thought she was. 

Winding up in the 8th at Hollywood, we’ve got maiden claimers agian going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Thor’s Bullet looks like the standout here.  He posted a 72 Beyer last out and could show early speed as well, which in a short sprint is definitely a plus.  Apart from him, I’ll go for a price at 8/1 with Incandescenza.  The son of Elusive Quality looks primed to me, even though trainer Steve Knapp doesn’t usually have them ready to roll in their debut efforts.  I’m also encouraged that jockey Johnathan Roasario is aboard in the irons.  This isn’t the toughest field – if he’s got talent he should be able to threaten here.

Best of luck to each of you – as always be sure to check for late scratches/changes.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Laurel Park

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