Weekend roundup: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby selections

9 04 2010

Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run.  It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.

Thanks to increased media coverage this year, much of that growing has occurred RIGHT before our eyes, with as many as 2 million tuning in to watch last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby broadcast on NBC.  This weekend the action shifts to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass, and Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

Yes, friends, the Take Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.

Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago.   The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.

Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passing was received with sadness today.  Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday.  While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say):  There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training.  Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)

We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland.  For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.  In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May.  All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #2 First Dude (8/1)
  • #3 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
  • #5 Codoy (30/1)
  • #6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
  • #7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
  • #8 Aikenite (4/1)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)

I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:

You all know how fond I am of ODYSSEUS.  He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race.  It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me.  In fact, it stinks.  If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense?  There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.

The whole thing just feels like a bad idea.  He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track.  Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.

What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic.  I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.

“An odd set, stony quality to it.  As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it.  The way you feel before an ill-considered attack.  Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it.  You must even take part, help it fail!”

Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows?  Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?

Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong.  He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on.  Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.

As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby.  My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.

The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace.  Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.

It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field.  Will it be enough to prevail?  I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.

Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well.  It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts.  With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.

Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward.  Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.

Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO.  Paddy is worth considering for good reason.  All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End.  What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer?  Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.

Selections:

I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity.  What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse.  Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.

I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)
  • #7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)

Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in!  The $1 million Arkansas Derby!  Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking.  The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #4 Northern Giant (8/1)
  • #5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
  • #6 New Madrid (20/1)
  • #7 Berberis (30/1)
  • #8 Line Of David (15/1)
  • #9 Pulsion (15/1)

SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position.  So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.

All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire.  Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end.  With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.

DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE.  I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.

If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS.  I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.

Selections:

  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone.  We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings.  May the horse be with you all.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Interactif, Keeneland, Noble's Promise, Oaklawn Park, Odysseus

Zenyatta’s return highlights BIG weekend of racing action

9 10 2009

Another weekend is upon us.  Is it just me, or does this seem to happen like clockwork every 7 days?  Very strange.  You’ll forgive me for drifting here and there as we’ve got twelve big races to cover in what promises to be an exciting weekend of racing.  The biggest (and baddest) name on the entries is obviously Zenyatta – the undefeated mare attempting to equal the feat of Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive start of her career. 

Here’s a quick roundup of the major races being run at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet.  I’ve organized them by order of post time so that they flow in sequence – which means we’ll be bouncing between the tracks a bit here. 

Belmont – Race 4 – The Jamaica Handicap (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – 2:35 (ET)

We kick things off with the 60th running of the Jamaica H.   The two horses that appear to have the biggest shot here are #2 COURAGEOUS CAT and #6 TAKE THE POINTS.  The latter we know from the Preakness earlier in the year and his victory in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 8.  COURAGEOUS CAT is the horse I’ve got to take here.  Despite being the morning line favorite at 2/1, he might wind up offering slightly better value if TAKE THE POINTS takes a lot of money at the windows. The son of Storm Cat is also named for one of my favorite childhood cartoon stars.  Most folks don’t remember Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, but I do.  #3 GRASSY looks like a runner with a big shot in here as well.  I could also make a case for adding in #7 MR SANDMAN and #1 STRAIGHT STORY on the bottom of the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #2 Courageous Cat (2/1*)
  • #6 Take the Points (5/2)
  • #3 Grassy (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 5 – The Woodford (Grade 3) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – 3:23 (ET)

We visit Keeneland for the first time today for the 13th running of The Woodford.  I’m not much of a turf sprint handicapper, and I know it’s one of my weaker areas, so we’ll keep this one simple.  I like #2 MR. NIGHTLINGER in here, despite the 2/1 odds. The son of Indian Charlie has not had quite the banner year many of us expected to have, with only 1 victory thus far in 5 starts.  One of the main reasons I’m backing him though is that he’s got talent and shows early speed – something which can be noteworthy from time to time at Keeneland.  He will be tested though, as #7 SILVER TIMBER looks like a good one for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Prime Timber is the most likely to get first run at MR. NIGHTLINGER if he can’t hold on out in front.  #6 DIE DATE is another horse worth considering in this field.  He gives you a consistently even effort every time out, although he may be better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets.  Other horses worth ticket consideration would appear to be #5 BULLET FROM ABROAD and #8 FORT PRADO. 

Selections:

  • #2 Mr. Nightlinger (2/1*)
  • #7 Silver Timber (5/2)
  • #6 Due Date (7/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 6 – The Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs – 4:00 (ET)

We stay in Keeneland for the 29th running of the TCA.  #8 INFORMED DECISION is the overwhelming favorite on the morning line at 3/5.  While that might be cause to try and beat her, the daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven deadly (3 for 3) at Keeneland in her career.  She’s also won all 5 of her synthetic starts.  Just keep that in mind if you try to take her down.  The most logical contender would seem to be #6 CARLSBAD, who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delmar last out. Tyler Baze is the listed rider, meaning he’s left the friendly confines of California.  There’s enough value here on the morning line (5/1) to warrant stong consideration. #5 BOLD UNION is another interesting runner who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delaware.  The Dixie Union filly has only raced once over the synthetics, and it was nothing to write home about, but she does have speed and that can be a big factor in sprint races. I like the two “Ashley” horses (#1 AWESOME ASHLEY and #4 PIOUS ASHLEY) enough to include them on the bottom of my tickets, and I might take a chance underneath with #3 PORTE BONHEUR as well, as she’s proven she can handle the synthetics at Woodbine last November. 

Selections:

  • #8 Informed Decision (3/5*)
  • #6 Carlsbad (5/1)
  • #5 Bold Union (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 7 – The First Lady (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 4:35 (ET)

You know, we just love Keeneland so much that we’ll hang around for another race, whaddya think?  The First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 1 mile over the turf.  #5 FOREVER TOGETHER is currently listed atop most rankings of oder turf females in the U.S., and will be the morning line favorite at even odds.  The daughter of Belong to Me was absolutely dominating at times last year, but has had some trouble putting together consistent victories this year.  If her current pattern of running 1st, 2nd – 1st, 2nd continues, she’s due for a victory.  If only it were that simple.  Working in her favor will be the fact that she gets a little pace to run into with #4 TIZAQUEENA and #9 SUPERIOR STORM on her flanks.  That should help her have a big race.  #6 MY PRINCESS JESS and #8 DIAMONDRELLA are two runners who could also get good trips and who would obviously offer more value on the tote board.  At least work them into your exotics.

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (3/5*)
  • # 6 My Princess Jess (6/1)
  • #4 Tizaqueena (12/1)

 

Belmont – Race 8 – The Frizette (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 4:43 (ET)

It’s back to New York for the 62nd running of the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies. #3 NONA MIA looks like the horse to beat here coming off an impressive 12 length score out to break her maiden.  Being a daughter of Empire Maker, I’m not as concerned about how she’ll handle the distance as perhaps I ought to be. #4 AWESOME MARIA should have a say as to how things turn out as well.  The daughter of Maria’s Mon is already a Grade 2 winner having defeated several of today’s rivals in the Matron on September 19.  The rest of the field looks fairly even behind these two.  #6 FRANNY FREUD, #5 TOUCHING BEAUTY, and #2 DEVIL MAY CARE all came up as having chances to hit the board based on my own personal handicapping methods, as did #7 WORSHIP THE MOON.  I’ll probably box the top two choices on top and then take all of these guys on the bottom of the trifecta.  That’s my initial plan at least.  We’ll see if se can get a good look at them in the post parade to narrow it down a bit more.  I went with TOUCHING BEAUTY as my 3rd choice by a slim margin – mostly due to the fact that she was sired by Tapit. 

Selections:

  • #3 Nonna Mia (5/2)
  • #4 Awesome Maria (2/1*)
  • #5 Touching Beauty (5/1)

 

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree)  – Race 4 – The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – 2:00 (PT)

Time to head out west to the lovely Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita for the 33rd running of the Yellow Ribbon.  The two big names in this field are #1 MAGICAL FANTASY and #7 VISIT.  MAGICAL FANTASY exits 3 consecutive victories, including two at the Grade 1 level in the John C Mabee and the Gamely.  This is clearly one of the better turf mares on the California circuit and she should be respected as such. VISIT is a 4-year-old that has always seemed on the cusp of greatness, yet has a tendency to run for minor slices of the pie.  Garrett Gomez will get acquainted once again with the daughter of Oasis Dream , who should be firing at about the same time as MAGICAL FANTASY.  This could be a good battle between these two runners in the stretch.  As for the rest of the field, #4 BLACK MAMBA is a dangerous runner who can jump up and run a big one from time to time. Trainer John Sadler might have her primed for a big effort this weekend.  I’m also familiar enough with both #2 LEMONETTE and #3 LEMON CHIFFON that I’ll probably include them on the bottom of my tickets as well.  If I’m not mistaken, LEMON CHIFFON was one of the horses I hit at the NTRA Handicapping Contest last fall in Las Vegas. 

Selections:

  • #1 Magical Fantasy (8/5*)
  • #7 Visit (5/1)
  • #4 Black Mamba (5/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 8 – The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 5:10 (ET)

Now we head back to Kentucky for more 2-year-old action in the Breeders’ Futurity.  The colt I’m most anxious to see here is #2 BACKTALK.  The son of Smarty Jones had won 3 in a row to start his career before drawing the 12 hole last out in the Hopeful.  Will he like the synthetics at Keeneland?  Well, if his bullet workout there on October 5 is any indication, he out to handle the surface switch just fine.  That being said, I’m going with #8 AKENITE as my top choice.  Why?  Well, the son of Yes it’s True will offer some value at the windows, and might be overlooked.  Plus, look at that last race where he lost to Dublin and Aspire.  Those two are the top choices for the Champagne, run just 5 minutes later at Belmont (and coming up next in our selections).  If those two are among the best in the young and developing division, then that could be a race to key on.   Maybe if they don’t leave him with as much to do and go for a more even effort?  It’s worth a chance is all i’m saying.  #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is a logical contender as well, coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Best Pal and the Delmar Futurity.  I have some questions about how this one will handle the distance, but I like that they’ve trained her at 7 furlongs following a game effort at that same distance. Note that Tyler Baze will also be aboard this runner, so he’s got a couple of potentially live mounts on the card.  A horse that might get overlooked and is in all honesty probably compromised by their starting position is #14 STATELY VICTOR.  Don’t be surprised if this son of Ghostzapper goes on to become the best horse of this field in due time. Whether he shows that on Saturday not is a bit of question mark, but I think he’s worth at least including underneath.   There’s plenty of other directions you could go here, depending on which horse you may already be familiar with or have developed some affection for.

Selections:

  • #8 Akenite (5/1)
  • #2 Backtalk (4/1*)
  • #7 Make Music for Me (6/1)

 

Belmont – Race 9 – The Champagne (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 5:15 (ET)

We head back to New York for the final time this afternoon for the Champagne.  If you start reading this and feel as though you’re having deja vu, don’t worry – we did just talk about some of these runners.  #5 DUBLIN comes into the race as the victor of the Hopeful at Saratoga.  In that race he held on to deny #3 ASPIRE, who will get the benefit of an extra furlong in his attempt to turn the tables on his rival.  Don’t I kind of have to go with a horse named ASPIRE since this is The Aspiring Horseplayer?  That’s just too strong a vibe for me to pass up.  In all honesty, I rate these two extremely close to one another, and while if my life depended on it, I’d probably side with DUBLIN, I”ll take a chance and go with ASPIRE here.  The horse that might be the x-factor here is #6 HOMEBOYKRIS for Rick Dutrow Jr.  #4 DISCREETLY MINE also rates a chance here as this son of Mineshaft did run well against Dutrow’s other prized possession in the 2-year-old division thus far, D’Funnybone.

Selections:

  • #3 Aspire (3/1)
  • #5 Dublin (8/5*)
  • #6 Homeboykris (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 9 – The Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) -5:45 (ET)

The finale of the marquee races at Keeneland for Saturday is the 24th running of the Shadwell Turf Mile.  I’ll consider taking a chance here with #9 COURT VISION, despite the fact that the son of Gulch has not won a race since the Hollywood Derby last November. He’s running for Dutrow now, which in itself is cause for improvement, and adds the blinkers back on, which he’s had off the last 3 races.  Call me crazy but I think this helps keep him focused in the stretch and gives him a chance for the upset.  The monster of the race though is #7 JUSTENUFFHUMOR.  The son of Distorted Humor exits 6 consecutive victories, including the Bernard Baruch Handicap last out at Saratoga.  If he’s good enough to beat my boy Cowboy Cal, he’s good enough to take this field. #5 BATTLE OF HASTINGS is a horse I’ve given out several times here successfully, so you know he’ll be on my tickets again.

Selections:

  • #7 Justenuffhumor (5/2*)
  • #9 Court Vision (7/2)
  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 6 – The Oak Tree Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 3:00 (PT)

Things get a little bit calmer as we head out west to stay to finish up the day, beginning with the Oak Tree Mile.  Notice that there’s a theme here today where I talk about a horse in one race, and he shows up in the next.  #9 COWBOY CAL comes into the Mile having finished 2nd in the Bernard Baruch.  There’s something about this guy that I really admire.  He’s a gamer – and I think he could be in store for a big effort.  He’ll need to avoid a speed duel with #7 MONTERREY JAZZ though, and ought to press the pace from 2nd to give himself his best chance.  Coming off the pace will be #10 WHATSTHESCRIPT and #4 GLOBAL HUNTER, who each have big shots in here as well.  I’m going to stick with my COWBOY CAL on top, with GLOBAL HUNTER running big for 2nd.  WHATSTHESCRIPT has a tendency to run 3rd or 4th, and I’ll use him on the bottom.  Do give some props to the filly, #8 ALLICANSAYIS WOW – as she steps up to take on boys again.  She ran well for 2nd in the Delmar Mile, and finished ahead of Lethal Heat, a horse who (you guessed it) will come up again later in our picks.  I’d also keep MONTERREY JAZZ around in your tickets, being as that he is the speed of the speed.

Selections:

  • #9 Cowboy Cal (2/1*)
  • #4 Global Hunter (8/1)
  • #10 Whatsthescript (5/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 7 – The Goodwood (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – 3:30 (PT)

The feature race of the day is the final major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic – the 28th running of the Goodwood.  Wht a race we’ve got in store.  #4 COLONEL JOHN tries to get back to his winning ways on the main track following a disappointing 5th place finish in the Pacific Classic.  I thought the son o f Tiznow had a horrible trip that day and am expecting the real COLONEL JOHN to show up again this weekend.  He was, after all, my Derby selection back in 2008.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings the hot longshot winner #3 RICHARD’S KID in for the Goodwood with visions of the Classic dancing in his head.  Was that last win in the Pacific Classic a fluke, or has Baffert turned this guy into a top runner?  I wouldn’t let Bob Baffert burn you twice, if you know what I mean.  Of course, there are also some runners in here both seeking to regain respect and who are favorites of many fans.  #2 TIAGO is one class=”mceItemHidden”> of the few remnants of the talented 2007 crop of 3-year-olds that produced Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Tiago always was in their shadows, and despite ome success as a 4-year-old and some sexy Beyer figures on his resume, he’s only won $24,000 in 2 starts this year.  If he comes back like his old self, he actually makes some sense here.  This is the same team, remember, that gave the world Zenyatta (and Giacomo).  #5 TRES BORRACHOS still has the coolest name in all of racing (“3 drunks”).  And of course, there’s that guy that won the Kentucky Derby at 50/1, #10 MINE THAT BIRD.  How great would it be to see the son of Birdstone come back and run a big race?  He’s been on synthetics before – hell, he’s won on ‘em before, so if his throat surgery has got him back to the way he was this spring, he could make some noise here in his 1st start against older horses.   I haven’t even had a chance to mention #9 INFORMED (son of Tiznow), #6 MONZANTE (winner of the 2008 Eddie Read), and #7  PARADING (disappointing 4th in the Pacific Classic last out).  This looks like a great race – hopefully a glimmer of things to come on Breeders’ Cup weekend this November.

Selections:

  • #4 Colonel John (3/1*)
  • #4 Richard’s Kid (8/1)
  • #10 Mine That Bird (7/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree – Race 8 – The Lady’s Secret (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 4:00 (PT)

We wind up the day with the return of the undefeated Zenyatta – the super star of west coast thoroughbred racing.  I’ve covered this race already for the NTRA, and you’re welcome to read my assessment there.  The biggest question we’ll be looking to answer won’t come until after the race, once trainer John Shirreffs has had a chance to see how ZENYATTA comes out of the race.  That will ultimately determine whether she runs against boys on the Classic on Saturday, or defends her crown against the Ladies’ on Friday in the Breeders’ Cup.  Last time we saw her, ZENYATTA was flying home like a rocket towards a desperate photo finish with longshot #8 ANAABA’S CREATION.  This race could play out in similar fashion without an abundance of speed signed on.  Also note the presence of #1 COCOA BEACH, who in case folks forgot ran 2nd behind ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last year here at Santa Anita.  Hopefully we can get a good gauge on how she’s shaping up heading into the championships as well.  Stablemate #4 LIFE IS SWEET draws the misfortune of facing the monster that is ZENYATTA once again, after earlier reports that she would be pointing towards a turf race.  Then there’s #6 LETHAL HEAT, who just ran against the boys last weekend in the Cal Cup Classic (finishing 2nd).  She comes right back in what should be her final tune up for the Ladies’ Classic as well.  I think the class of ZENYATTA is too much for ‘em all in the end.  Look for ANAABA”S CREATIOn or COCOA BEACH underneath in second.  I’ll give LETHAL HEAT a big shot to hit the board as well along with LIFE IS SWEET.

Selections:

  • #5 Zenyatta (2/5*)
  • #8 Anaaba’s Creation (12/1)
  • #1 Cocoa Beach (6/1)

 

Whew – I need a break after all that ‘capping.  :)

Best of luck to all – and don’t forget about Icon Project this Sunday in the Spinster at Keeneland.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Colonel John, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Mine That Bird, Santa Anita, Tiago, Zenyatta

Derby workout vids for Quality Road, Friesan Fire, and Chocolate Candy

23 04 2009

Gearing up for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, here’s a quick spin through some of the workout videos available on youtube.  In this round of clips we see Quality Road making his first workout since having his quarter crack patched, Friesan Fire turning in a nice AM drill, and Chocolate Candy getting a nice work with jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.

Quality Road 4/10/09 @ Belmont

 

Friesan Fire 4/14/09 @ Keeneland:

 

Chocolate Candy 4/12/09 @ Santa Anita


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Categories : Belmont Park, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita

General Quarters wins the Toyota Blue Grass; heads for Kentucky Derby

11 04 2009

Historically, the phrase “General Quarters”  has been a call to action for naval combatants.  From Trafalgar to Jutland to Midway the order has gone out for men to stand fast at their battle stations and prepare to receive the enemy.  On Saturday afternoon a 3-year-old son of Sky Mesa proved himself worthy of the name General Quarters  as he battled out a victory in the Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland.  Owner and trainer Thomas McCarthy wasn’t the only one richly rewarded on the day as General Quarters elated his supporters by returning $30.60 for the win en route to stamping his ticket to the 2009 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Results Chart

Join In the Dance set the early pace, with splits of :24.40 and :49.06.   At the top of the stretch, General Quarters was set down for his run, and quickly overtook the fading pace setter.  Hold Me Back,  Massone, and Terrain were all starting to move well late as well.  Unable to gain ground on General Quarters, they would wind up finishing behind him in that exact order, with Join in the Dance a distant 5th.  Teamed with jockey Eibar Coa for the first time in his career, General Quarters crossed the finish line  going 9 furlongs  (1 1/8  miles) in 1:49.26.  

The victory, General  Quarters third in 11 lifetime starts, gives him graded stakes victories over a route of ground on both conventional dirt and a synthetic surface having also won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis  at Tampa Bay Downs over Musket Man.  He’ll run into that one again in the Kentucky Derby, along with all of the other top 3-year-olds in the nation.  I’m not sure how he stacks up against the better horses, but at this point I think you have to rank him around the area of Musket Man. 

 The two actually present an interesting handicapping challenge for players to ponder considering they’ve taken turns beating each other. Musket Man owns impressive victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby.  Considering the surfaces involved, those two races may turn out to be better true barometers for the Kentucky Derby than the Blue Grass was.  It’ll be interesting to see which one takes more play at the windows just 3 Saturdays from now in the Kentucky Derby.

I think we saw a colt who really grew up in a big way today, and his win adds depth to a 3-year-old division in need of another contender or two after The Pamplemousse was removed from the Derby trail due to injury.   His next challenge will be handling the obvious class test looming in the distance.   As Steven Crist recently pointed out in the Daily Racing Form’s Saturday edition, the prestige of the Toyota Blue Grass as a true Kentucky Derby prep has been called into question.  Only time will tell if this year’s winner will go on to add luster to a proud list of horses to have won on the Blue Grass, or will wind up closer to what we’ve seen in recent years with the likes of Monba (20th in the 2008 Kentucky Derby)  and Dominican (11th in the 2007 Kentucky Derby).  

I won’t even mention Bandini (19th in the 2006 Derby) since I actually liked him along with Barbaro that year.  In fact, Bandini might bet he last horse I actually cashed on at Keeneland, as my inability to pick a winner there continued with the handicapping picks for the Blue Grass.  So much for Charitable Man showing the world what Lemon Drops can do.   I actually had  General Quarters covered in my $.50 Pick 4 ticket,  but was knocked out two races earlier when Rebellion just missed getting past Eternal Star in the Grade 2 Commonwealth.   He looked good coming on late though.  Oh well.  On to better days then!  Here’s hoping one of you hit the win or the $1399 trifecta.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail, The Pamplemousse

Toyota Blue Grass a solid betting race

10 04 2009

Saturday’s 85th running of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland may not have the star appeal of the other Grade 1 preps along the Derby trail, but it might be one of the more appealing betting races of the season.   Value, particularly underneath in the exotics, will likely abound as the race has drawn 10 relatively evenely matched competitors. 

  1. Patena (R. Albarado Jr./ R. Dutrow Jr.) 10/1
  2. Join in the Dance (J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher) 10/1
  3. Theregoesjojo (C. Borel/ K. McPeek) 7/2
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. L. Castanon/ D. Miller) 20/1
  5. Mafaaz (R. Hills/ J. Gosden) 12/1
  6. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 6/1
  7. Loch Dubh (H. J. Thierot II/ J. Talley) 50/1
  8. General Quarters (E. Coa/ T. McCarthy) 15/1
  9. Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 4/1
  10.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 3/1*
  11.  Massone (G. Gomez/ R. McAnally) 12/1

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to Hold Me Back, largely based on his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on March 21 at Turfway Park.   The son of Giant’s Causeway perked up that day and displayed an apparent affinity for a synthetic surface.  Importantly, he also has shown he can win here at Keeneland, having done so against conditional allowance runners last October (including today’s rival Cliffy’s Future).   He also prevailed in a move I seldom play;  dirt to synthetic.  If you toss his 5th place finish on the dirt against Old Fashioned in the Remsen, he’s 3 for his remaining 3.   It’s interesting to note in his workout lines that he gest credit for a bullet over the dirt at Payson Park going 5 furlongs in 1:02.2, yet only ranks 15th out of 35 for his workout going the same two full seconds faster at Keeneland on Sunday.  He’s got the looks of a worthy favorite, but he doesn’t tower over the field.

Theregoesjojo is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2.  This guy looks like one of the best horses in this race, but once again I’m hesitant to support a dirt runner trying the artificial footing for the first time.    To his credit, he has defeated Quality Road, and ran respectably against both he and Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.  HIs trainer, Ken McPeek, is hitting at an even 20% clip over synthetic surfaces.  I’ve got mixed feelings about this guy in this spot.  I suspect he’ll run a good race, but I don’t think I can support him for the win.

Charitable Man is the horse that offers the most intrigue.  For starters, he’s a Lemon Drop, which I always enjoy playing.   You know he’ll be able to handle the distance, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been giving this guy some solid works in preparation for his 2009 debut.   While he is going from dirt to synthetics like Theregoesjojo, I like his turf pedigree a bit more and would expect him to handle the surfact switch more confidently.  While he has yet to race this year, somebody in his camp has decided this colt hast the goods for the Kentucky Derby, as he’s among those who paid the early nomination fee for the first Saturday in May.   It’s worth noting that he beat two talented horses in the Futurity last year, both Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus.  As Handride pointed out to me on Facebook earlier today, he evidently has his own blog.  You get the feeling this is the class of the field right here, and if he’s cranked up and ready to go – watch out!

European invader Mafaaz has already earned a birth in the Kentucky Derby.   In that way, much like Street Sense in 2007, he’s really here as a final tune up while his connections make the final determination about their chances  next month.  He looks to be in great form, and the only loss of his career was to Donativum, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall at Santa Anita.   He’s accomplished on both turf and synthetics, and will likely offer solid value on the board since many players will shy away from him due to unfamiliarity.   My advice?  Don’t ignore this guy.  I don’t think they would have shipped here if they didn’t truly believe they might have something.   Of course, as with most of the horses here, you really need to get a look at them in the post parade before you can make a final assessment.   That goes doubly true for Mafaaz since he doesn’t have a posted workout over the local service to give us any other indication on how he’s shipped. 

Terrain is a runner who looks capable of moving forward by virtue of essentially dropping in class.   He ran into Friesan Fire and Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and prior to that was favored against Big Drama and West Side Bernie in the Delta Jackpot.  That was really his worst effort after rather uncharectersitically flashing early speed.   He’s actually finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile, who is currently 4th in the public voting on our Kentucky Derby poll, in both the Breeder’s Futurity and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  That’s really one of the most powerful angles you can find from a handicapping perspective in this entire race. 

I’m going to play the Lemon Drop like I usually do and go with Charitable Man for the win.   I’ll use Mafaaz, Terrain, and Hold Me Back underneath in place.  Add in General Quarters  and Theregoesjojo for show,  with Patena and Join in the Dance on the bottom of the Superfecta.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #9 Charitable Man
  • $.10 Superfecta:  9/5,6,10/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 ($6.00)

The Toyota Blue Grass will be featured on TVG and again on tape delay on ESPN2 on Saturday.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail

Coolmore Lexington rounds out the Derby preps

18 04 2008

That’s right folks, I’ve finally returned from California.  It’s been a long and somewhat exhausting trip, but a good one nonetheless.  I’ve been on planes and dealing with airports since roughly 4 AM PST, so forgive me if my thoughts seem a bit disjointed today.  I’m dead tired.  I’m not going to let that stop me though from enjoying the final serious Derby prep races tomorrow, as I fully plan to take in a day of live racing action at Pimlico.  That being said, the Tessio at Pimlico doesn’t appear to have any serious Derby contenders, so we’ll focus our coverage on the Coolmore Lexington Stakes instead.

This Saturday’s running of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland features several horses still flirting with visions of a Kentucky Derby run.  This will be their last chance to pick up much needed graded stakes earnings in an attempt to qualify for the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” on May 3.  

The Coolmore is a Grade 2 Stakes going 1 1/16 miles over the synthetic Polytrack at Keeneland.  Eleven horse have drawn into the field, which sets up like this:

  1. Atoned (Edgar Prado) 3/1
  2. Salute the Sarge (M.C. Baze) 4/1
  3. Samba Rooster (Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  4. St. Joe (Miguel Mena) 8/1
  5. Racecar Rhapsody (Robby Albarado) 9/2
  6. Felon (Julien Leparoux) 20/1
  7. Behindatthebar (David Flores) 12/1
  8. Tomcito (jorge Chavez) 6/1
  9. Big Glen (Rene Douglass) 12/1
  10. Riley Tucker (John Velasquez) 12/1
  11. Red Sandy (Jamie Theirot) 30/1

First things first, it’s been brutal trying to pick winners at Keeneland all meet.  Sure you get some longshots, but more often than not seemingly sure-thing chalks seem to suffer inexplicable defeats (Pyro, anyone?).  That really makes me nervous about Saturday because there’s a colt in here that I think the world of and would love to see move forward.

I first discovered Salute the Sarge watching Hollywood Park on TVG last summer.  I liked how he  looked in the post parade of a Maiden Special Weight event and selected him at odds of nearly 11/1.  He rallied in the stretch to prevail by a 1/2 length over Slam Slew, who returned to win his next race.  ‘Sarge went on to win his next 2, running off an impressive 3 for 3 lifetime record before falling to Georgie Boy in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  Georgie Boy beat him by 1 1/2 lengths, and went on to be considered a top contender for best overall 3  year old colt in California.  Unfortunately for Georgie Boy, he had some injury trouble earlier this year and is no longer on the Derby trail, but if he were he’d no doubt be a horse some would be talking about seriously.

Named for ex-trainer and TVG analyst Nick “the Sarge” Hines, Salute the Sarge next suffered back to back defeats, including a devastating 33 length loss in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the slop at Monmouth.  That race is an obvious toss when looking at his past performance profile.  He came back to win the San Miguel at Santa Anita on March 29, beating a pretty good sprinter in Leonides at the short 6 furlong distance. 

Salute the Sarge is just the type of gutsy horse I tend to fall in love with.  I’ve watched this guy battle back through adversity, and if you’ll forgive my sanity for a moment (I warned you I’ve been on planes all day), I dare say he may have beaten Georgie Boy in the Futurity had he not encountered a bit of traffic trouble.   That’s really saying something and in my opinion deserves looking at again.  I’ve included the replay from the Del Mar Futurity last May below.  Salute the Sarge will come up late between horses to take 2nd place at the wire.  What I really want you to focus on is the steadying he had to do at roughly the 1:15 mark in the film below.  They’re right at the top of the stretch, and if you can spot the rider in the white cap having to rear back on his horse – you’ll have found Salute the Sarge.  Watch from that point forward keeping in mind that he no doubt lost at least one and likely several steps there, and then note how close he is to a colt as highly regarded as Georgie Boy.

Salute the Sarge encounters trouble at the top of the stretch (roughly 1:15 into video) but then fights back between horses for 2nd place in the Del Mar Futurity in May 2007.

 I think this is a very underrated colt.   I don’t think he has a prayer of a chance against the top rated colts in the nation on true dirt in the Derby or the Preakness, but I like his chances here today on the synthetic track. I’m also hoping that folks will ignore him a bit because of others with seemingly higher Beyer speed figure races.  

Tomcito is a very interesting horse to me.  A few weeks ago I gave him out as a trifecta filler underneath in the Florida Derby when the folks at the sports mafia were nice enough to invite me onto a podcast.  I like him here today for the same reasons I did then.  I like his connections, and I like that he has beaten older colts in previous efforts.  He also doesn’t appear to have any distance limitations to be concerned about, and in fact would appear to actually enjoy a bit more than the 1 1/16 of the Coolmore Lexington.  Still, I think his connections are thinking Derby run and they’ve probably picked the lightest major prep they could find to try and pick up some graded earnings. 

Atoned is a horse that just can’t seem to catch a break.  He’s got 4 second place finishes in his last 5 starts, including 2 by a neck and 1 by a nose. That’s got to be excruciating for his connections, especially since he’s gone up against some of the better 3 year olds.  Edgar Prado takes the reins today, which is interesting and certainly gives the colt a chance of waking up.  I”m just not ready to take a colt with what appears to be well documented “seconditis” as the favorite.  He should certainly factor into the race, but it would be tough to support a win here.

The rest of the field is a bit questionable, but as stated earlier – anything is possible at Keeneland.  Rhacecar Rhapsody will likely take a bit of play at the windows, having finished respectably in the Lane’s End.  I’m not buying though.  He hasn’t really done much since breaking his maiden and he’s got that dreaded Delta Jackpot finish in his past which appears to have been a slightly overrated race.  I’ll pass.

Big Glen won by a neck in the Rushaway, but appears to be one of the weaker off the pace types in here.  A finish in the money is possible if he can get a speed duel up front, which it appears may well happen.

Speaking of speed duels, there are two front running types in here that could both prove dangerous if one were to get loose on the lead.  St. Joe posted a 97 Beyer in an Allowance level victory on April 4 at Keeneland.  He appears a synthetic specialist that is very fond of the Keeneland track.  That being said, we’ve only got one race over 1 mile in distance to evaluate him with and it wasn’t one of his best.  If this were a 7 furlong race he’d be the standout favorite. 

Samba Rooster is another that appears to need the lead, but he’s got a disturbing habit of fading late at shorter distances.  If nothing else he’ll put up an early fight but will likely only serve to burn St. Joe out - which would open things up for someone coming off the pace. Garrett Gomez does take the mount, which has to be respected – but will it be enough?

I’ll stick to my guns here and take Salute the Sarge at 4/1 to win.  Any horse that was good enough to run with Georgie Boy ought to be able to handle this field.  Tomcito would be my second choice at 6/1.  I think if the odds are right he’s probably worth a saver win bet as well, as we still don’t quite know what kind of horse we have with him.

Atoned is an obvious play underneath, and I’ll keep St. Joe and Samba Rooster around for show thinking that one of them might hang on and wind up in the money. My el-cheapo trifecta would look like this:

4/8/1,3,4

Best of luck to all!  Go  get ‘em Sarge!!! 

Oh yes, and don’t forget you can watch along on ESPN2 Saturday at 5:00 PM EST.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail, Salute the Sarge, Tomcito


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